Societal Value of Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: A Synthesis

A major focus of current meteorological research is improving high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy, and the environment. One type of forecasts that the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) have identified as high-impact is Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). In support of USWRP and NWS goals, a project was initiated in the Societal Impacts Program of NCAR with two main objectives: 1) to synthesize existing knowledge about the societal value of improved QPFs and 2) to investigate which research methodologies were used to measure the societal value of improved QPFs. To address these questions, we have undertaken a qualitative meta-analysis of peer-reviewed published papers that empirically elicit the socioeconomic value of QPF information for individual and organizational decision-makers. The results of the meta-analysis indicate that there is no single best methodology to elicit value of precipitation forecast information in all decision contexts, nor have all the identified methodologies have been tested with empirical data. The research results synthesize current knowledge on the societal value of QPFs and identify knowledge gaps for guiding future research on the societal valuation of QPFs and other related weather forecasts.