Improvements in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) categorical visibility and obstruction to vision statistical guidance

The Meteorological Development Laboratory is redeveloping the current LAMP system with special emphasis on aviation weather. LAMP, which is an update system to the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Output Statistics (MOS), provides statistically derived guidance for the forecasting of sensible weather elements. The new LAMP system will run hourly with one hour forecasts spanning 25 projections. The new LAMP system utilizes (1) the most recent observations from the METAR observing system and (2) remote sensing observations taken from the NEXRAD radar reflectivities to improve its short-range forecasting skill. LAMP will produce forecast guidance for the Continental US, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

In this paper, it is shown that for the 09 UTC cycle, cool season, LAMP 1-9 hour categorical forecasts for visibility are significantly more skillful than those generated by the GFS MOS valid at the same time. LAMP forecasts beyond the 9-h projection exhibit similar skill as those produced by the GFS MOS system. LAMP forecasts also exhibit comparable or better skill than persistence, which is often difficult to improve upon in the very short-term (1-6 hours). The verification of LAMP categorical obstruction to vision forecasts also demonstrates a significant improvement over the GFS MOS forecasts in the 1-9 hour projection range. Moreover, LAMP forecasts between the 9-25 hour projections show a small improvement in skill over the GFS MOS system. The verification results of warm season LAMP visibility and obstruction to vision categorical forecasts will also be presented.