Session 5A Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction II

Tuesday, 14 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
243 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs:

Multiyear to decadal climate variability is a fundamental aspect of the global climate system. Major international efforts are underway to provide predictions that can help decision-maker planning for the next several years to decades, but the key mechanisms driving such long-term variations, and the differing sources of predictability on multiyear vs. decadal timescales, are still not fully understood. Processes both within ocean basins and inter-basin interactions are considered important at these timescales, but to-date the magnitude of these influences remains unknown, as is the impact of atmospheric/terrestrial processes. Separation of natural decadal variability from externally-forced components is also critical but challenging. This session invites contributions examining mechanisms of internal multiyear to decadal variability in the oceans, land, and/or atmosphere, studies attempting to isolate the internal and anthropogenically forced components and their interactions in observational and model datasets, and related prediction efforts using empirical/machine learning, theoretical and modeling approaches.

Papers:
8:30 AM
5A.1
The differing dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms explaining drying of the Mediterranean over past decades in observations and models
Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and T. Osborn, Y. Kushnir, H. Liu, and J. Nakamura

8:45 AM
5A.2
Future Projections of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the MDR and Wider Caribbean Region: Utilizing CMIP6 GCM Ensembles
KENESHIA HIBBERT, CUNY Graduate Center, brooklyn, NY; City College of New York, New York, NY; and F. B. Oppong and J. E. González-Cruz

9:00 AM
5A.3
Identifying source of predictability for vapor pressure deficit variability in the western United States
Jiale Lou, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Joh, T. L. Delworth, and L. Jia

9:30 AM
5A.5
Multi-year to decadal predictions using a model-analog framework and a learned mask of weights trained on observations
Martin Fernandez, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes

9:45 AM
5A.6
Investigating Atmospheric and Oceanic drivers of Multidecadal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability using Explainable Neural Networks
Glenn Yuzu Liu, MIT-WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering, Cambridge, MA; and P. Wang and Y. O. Kwon

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- Indicates an Award Winner