Session 3 Error Growth and Predictability Limits

Monday, 13 January 2020: 2:00 PM-3:45 PM
104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair:
Carolyn Reynolds, NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA

Papers:
2:00 PM
3.1
Mesoscale Convective Systems, Rossby Waves, and Error Growth in Global Numerical Weather Prediction
David B. Parsons, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. P. Lillo, C. P. Rattray, and C. M. Bruce
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3.2
Impact of the Mesoscale Range on Error Growth and the Limits to Atmospheric Predictability
Tsz Yan Leung, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Leutbecher, S. Reich, and T. G. Shepherd
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3.3
Is Weather Chaotic? Coexistence of Chaos and Order within a Generalized Lorenz Model
Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State Univ., San Diego, CA; and R. Pielke Sr., X. Zeng, J. J. Baik, T. Reyes, S. Faghih-Naini, R. M. Atlas, and J. Cui
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.3 MB)

Handout (11.2 MB)

2:45 PM
3.4
Moving beyond State Variables to Enabling Underlying Physical Processes for Increased Predictability
James R. Stalker, RESPR, Inc., Tolland, CT
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3.5
Modes of Synoptic-Scale Midlatitude Error Growth and Ramifications in Medium-Range Forecast Performance
Samuel P. Lillo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. B. Parsons

3:15 PM
3.6
Dynamical Ensembles: A Critical Assessment
Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Feng and M. Peña

3:30 PM
3.7
Sufficient Model Resolution for S2S Predictions
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. W. A. Wang

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