Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Program Chairs: Fuqing Zhang , The Pennsylvania State Univ. ; Kerry Emanuel , Massachusetts Institute of Technology ; Graeme Stephens , JPL ; Roberto Buizza , ECMWF

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Monday, 13 January 2020

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 1
Intrinsic and Practical Predictability
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
9:00 AM
1.1
Waveguide Seeds, Sensitivity and Predictability
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. G. Fearon, P. M. Finocchio, and C. A. Reynolds

9:15 AM
1.2
Operational Forecast Based Estimates of the Practical Predictability of Weather
Istvan Szunyogh, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and N. Zagar

9:30 AM
1.3
Carbon-Weather Data Assimilation: Progress and Outlook
Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and S. Wuerth

9:45 AM
1.4
Assessment and Selection of Refional Automatic Weather Stations in China based on RRR Principle of WMO
JIAN XIA GUO, Meteorological Observation Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 2
Predictability of Extreme Events
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: David Parsons
10:45 AM
2.2
11:00 AM
2.3
Comparing Extreme Weather Events Generated by 36-km and 12-km WRF Simulations
Tanya L. Spero, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. H. Bowden, A. M. Jalowska, M. S. Mallard, and G. M. Gray

11:15 AM
2.4
Uncertainty in Near-term Global Surface Warming Linked to Tropical Pacific Climate Variability
Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; and M. H. Bordbar, M. England, A. Sen Gupta, A. Taschetto, T. Martin, W. Park, and M. Latif

11:30 AM
2.5
On the Prospects for Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Feifan Zhou, IAP, Beijing, China; and Z. Toth

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 3
Error Growth and Predictability Limits
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction
Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL
2:00 PM
3.1
Mesoscale convective systems, Rossby waves, and error growth in global numerical weather prediction
David B. Parsons, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. P. Lillo, C. P. Rattray, and C. M. Bruce

2:15 PM
3.2
Impact of the Mesoscale Range on Error Growth and the Limits to Atmospheric Predictability
Tsz Yan Leung, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Leutbecher, S. Reich, and T. G. Shepherd

2:30 PM
3.3
Is Weather Chaotic? Coexistence of Chaos and Order within a Generalized Lorenz Model
Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA; and R. Pielke Sr., X. Zeng, J. J. Baik, T. Reyes, S. Faghih-Naini, R. Atlas, and J. Cui

3:00 PM
3.5
Modes of Synoptic-Scale Mid-Latitude Error Growth and Ramifications in Medium-Range Forecast Performance
Samuel P. Lillo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. B. Parsons

3:15 PM
3.6
Dynamical Ensembles: A Critical Assessment
Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Feng and M. Peña

3:30 PM
3.7
Sufficient Model Resolution for S2S Predictions
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. W. A. Wang

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Joint Poster Session
Intrinsic and Practical Predictability of Global Weather Prediction: Progress and Challenges in Observations, Modeling and Data Assimilation
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction )
Diagnosing Regional Low-Skill Forecasts in the FV3-Based GFS
Travis J. Elless, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. T. Kleist

Set-Theoretical Allegory on the Intrinsic Predictability of Weather Time Series
M. Jeremie Lafitte (Levitas), Metivdata, Safed, Israel

Assessment of the Subseasonal Prediction Performance of the Mozambique Monsoon Rainfall and Its Modulation By the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Kénedy Cipriano Silvério, Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), Curitiba, Brazil; Higher Polytechnic Institute of Songo (ISPS), Songo Village, Tete, Mozambique; and A. M. Grimm

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Session 14
Joint Session on Scales Interactions and Predictability – In memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part I
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships )
Chair: Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
9:30 AM
J13.3
Forecast error growth of convective processes through nonlinear interaction between dynamical and moisture initialization uncertainties (Invited Presentation)
Masashi Minamide, JPL, Pasadena, CA; JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and F. Zhang and D. J. Posselt

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Session 19
Joint Session on Scales Interactions and Predictability – In memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part II
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Chair: Sharanya Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
10:30 AM
J17.1
Impermeability and constraints on tropical-extratropical and interhemispheric communication (Invited Presentation)
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma, C. D. Hoyos, S. Ortega, G. L. Stephens, and G. N. Kiladis

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)