Program: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction (100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Fuqing Zhang , Pennsylvania State Univ. ; Kerry Emanuel , Massachusetts Institute of Technology ; Graeme Stephens , JPL ; Roberto Buizza , ECMWF

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Monday, 13 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | top

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Session 1

Intrinsic and Practical Predictability

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Chair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF

9:00 AM

1.1

Waveguide Seeds, Sensitivity and Predictability

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. G. Fearon, P. M. Finocchio, and C. A. Reynolds

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1.2

Operational Forecast–Based Estimates of the Practical Predictability of Weather

Istvan Szunyogh, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and N. Zagar

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1.3

Carbon-Weather Data Assimilation: Progress and Outlook

Inez Fung, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and S. Wuerth

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1.4

Assessment and Selection of Regional Automatic Weather Stations in China Based on the RRR Principle of the WMO

Jian Xia Guo, Meteorological Observation Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.7 MB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Monday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Session 2

Predictability of Extreme Events

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Chair: David Parsons

10:30 AM

2.1

Potential for Parameter Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Air–Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange Coefficients through Ensemble Data Assimilation

Robert G. Nystrom, NCAR, Bolder, CO; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2.2

Conditional Predictability of Idealized Thunderstorms in CAPE–Shear Space

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2.3

Comparing Extreme Weather Events Generated by 36- and 12-km WRF Simulations

Tanya L. Spero, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. H. Bowden, A. M. Jalowska, M. S. Mallard, and G. M. Gray

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2.4

Uncertainty in Near-Term Global Surface Warming Linked to Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Agus Santoso, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; and M. H. Bordbar, M. England, A. Sen Gupta, A. Taschetto, T. Martin, W. Park, and M. Latif

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2.5

On the Prospects for Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Feifan Zhou, IAP, Beijing, China; and Z. Toth

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Session 3

Error Growth and Predictability Limits

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

2:00 PM

3.1

Mesoscale Convective Systems, Rossby Waves, and Error Growth in Global Numerical Weather Prediction

David B. Parsons, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. P. Lillo, C. P. Rattray, and C. M. Bruce

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3.2

Impact of the Mesoscale Range on Error Growth and the Limits to Atmospheric Predictability

Tsz Yan Leung, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Leutbecher, S. Reich, and T. G. Shepherd

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3.3

Is Weather Chaotic? Coexistence of Chaos and Order within a Generalized Lorenz Model

Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State Univ., San Diego, CA; and R. Pielke Sr., X. Zeng, J. J. Baik, T. Reyes, S. Faghih-Naini, R. M. Atlas, and J. Cui

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.3 MB)

Handout (11.2 MB)

2:45 PM

3.4

Moving beyond State Variables to Enabling Underlying Physical Processes for Increased Predictability

James R. Stalker, RESPR, Inc., Tolland, CT

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3.5

Modes of Synoptic-Scale Midlatitude Error Growth and Ramifications in Medium-Range Forecast Performance

Samuel P. Lillo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. B. Parsons

3:15 PM

3.6

Dynamical Ensembles: A Critical Assessment

Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Feng and M. Peña

3:30 PM

3.7

Sufficient Model Resolution for S2S Predictions

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. W. A. Wang

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Joint Poster Session 1

Intrinsic and Practical Predictability of Global Weather Prediction: Progress and Challenges in Observations, Modeling, and Data Assimilation

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction )

472

Diagnosing Regional Low-Skill Forecasts in the FV3-Based GFS

Travis J. Elless, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. T. Kleist

473

Set-Theoretical Allegory on the Intrinsic Predictability of Weather Time Series

474

Assessment of the Subseasonal Prediction Performance of the Mozambique Monsoon Rainfall and Its Modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Kénedy Cipriano Silvério, Federal Univ. of Paraná (UFPR), Curitiba, Brazil; Higher Polytechnic Institute of Songo (ISPS), Songo Village, Tete, Mozambique; and A. M. Grimm

475

Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Associated with Dominant Modes of Subseasonal Wintertime Precipitation in China

Yonghong Yao, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Q. Wu

477

Vertical Structure of Horizontal Scaling of Wind and Moisture Fields during South American Cold-Air Intrusions Considering Error Growth and Scale-Dependent Predictability

Masih Eghdami, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; and A. P. Barros

476

Evaluation of Convectively Coupled Rossby–Gravity Waves in a Field Campaign in Four Reanalysis Products

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Joint Session 14

Joint Session on Scale Interactions and Predictability—In Memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part I

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships )

Chair: Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

8:30 AM

J14.1

The Role of Observations in Advancing Earth Science Prediction (Invited Presentation) (Core Science Keynote)

G. L. Stephens, JPL, Pasadena, CA

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J14.2

Data Assimilation and Ensembles: Two Invaluable Tools to Increase Predictability and Quantify Uncertainty (Invited Presentation)

Roberto Buizza, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J14.3

Forecast Error Growth of Convective Processes through Nonlinear Interaction between Dynamical and Moisture Initialization Uncertainties (Invited Presentation)

Masashi Minamide, JPL, Pasadena, CA; JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and F. Zhang and D. J. Posselt

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Tuesday)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Joint Session 19

Joint Session on Scale Interactions and Predictability—In Memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part II

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )

Chair: Sharanya Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:30 AM

J19.1

Impermeability and Constraints on Tropical–Extratropical and Interhemispheric Communication (Invited Presentation)

Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma, C. D. Hoyos, S. Ortega, G. L. Stephens, and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J19.2

Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales Using Circulation Regimes (Invited Presentation)

David M. Straus, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and K. Pegion

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM