NOAA’s Strategy to Improve Operational Subseasonal Prediction for Weather Outlooks

Through its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs, NOAA is working to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time ranges. Using the the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) as the basis for a unified system going forward, NOAA is planning to unify its numerical prediction capability for Weather and S2S timescales. This paper will discuss current activities and strategic directions regarding work at NOAA to improve prediction at S2S time-scales and the planning taking place in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. In the short-term NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system, including reforecast and re-analyses and extending GEFS Forecasts to 30 days, with the new FV3GFS model. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve its operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and other kinds of extreme weather.