Program: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy (98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Andrew Clifton , WindForS Wind Energy Research Cluster ; Jennifer F. Newman , REsurety ; Lawrence C. Gloeckler III , Riskpulse

Reviewers: Michael Dettinger , USGS ; Kathleen Miller , NCAR ; Melinda Marquis , NOAA ; Yelena L. Pichugina , NOAA ; Caroline Draxl , National Renewable Energy Laboratory ; Justin Sharp , Sharply Focused LLC ; Jerry Crescenti ; David John Gagne II , NCAR ; Jessie C. Carman , OAR

« Collapse View

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Plenary Session 1

18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

4:00 PM

PL1.1

Transforming Communication in the Environmental Sciences: Some Thoughts from a Reluctant Participant (Invited Presentation)

Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Plenary Session 2

Welcoming Address

Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 1

New Projects and Opportunities for Renewable Energy Research

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Chair: Jeff Freedman, SUNY

8:45 AM

1.1

Meteorology Research in DOE’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Program

Joel W. Cline, DOE, Washington, DC; and W. J. Shaw and S. Haupt

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1.2

The U.S. DOE Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling Project: Extending Boundary Layer Flow Simulation to Complex Environments

Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA; and S. E. Haupt

Recorded Presentation

1.3

The WindForS Complex Terrain Wind Energy Test Site in Southern Germany

9:15 AM

1.3A

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

Gregor Giebel, DTU Technical Univ. of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; and J. W. Cline, C. Draxl, H. P. Frank, B. M. Hodge, G. Kariniotakis, J. W. Messner, C. Möhrlen, P. Pinson, and W. J. Shaw

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1.4

Validation of a 14-year High-Resolution WRF Dataset for Wind Resource Assessment over Alaska

Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Xue, A. J. Newman, A. J. Monaghan, P. Doubrawa, C. Draxl, L. Kilcher, and G. Scott

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1.5

Five-Year Continental and Offshore Unified Wind and Solar Dataset from the Experimental HRRR Model: Preliminary Verification and Dataset Uses

Eric P. James, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. Marquis

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 2

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part I

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Yelena Pichugina, NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

10:30 AM

2.1

The Wind Forecast Improvement Prohect 2 (WFIP2): Overview and Preliminary Model Improvements

Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Olson, J. Kenyon, M. D. Toy, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, S. Redfern, J. McCaa, E. P. Grimit, J. W. Cline, W. Shaw, and J. Sharp

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2.2

Improvements to Low-Level Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain from WFIP2

Jaymes S. Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, M. D. Toy, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, M. Marquis, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, S. Redfern, J. Sharp, J. McCaa, M. T. Stoelinga, E. P. Grimit, J. W. Cline, W. J. Shaw, J. K. Lundquist, K. A. Lundquist, B. Kosovic, P. A. Jimenez, L. K. Berg, and V. R. Kotamarthi

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2.3

Identification and Analysis of Forecast Model Large Error Events During WFIP2

James Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. McCaffrey, I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, M. T. Stoelinga, J. Sharp, M. Pekour, D. Cook, G. Scott, R. Eckman, and S. Otarola-Bustos

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2.4

Identification and Characterization of Cold Pool Events during WFIP2

Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Wilczak, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, R. Banta, T. A. Bonin, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, D. Cook, R. L. Coulter, H. J. S. Fernando, K. Friedrich, L. Leo, J. K. Lundquist, P. Muradyan, and Y. Pichugina

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2.5

Sensitivity of Turbine Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary Layer and Surface Layer Schemes in WRF: Extension to Wintertime Conditions

Larry K. Berg, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Y. Liu, B. Yang, Y. Qian, P. L. Ma, and Z. Hou

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2.6

Parametric and Initial Condition Sensitivity of Wind Ramp Events

Nicholas H. Smith, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lecture 1

2018 Haurwitz Lecture

Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM

L1.1

Some Observations of Normal Modes in the Atmosphere (Invited Presentation)

George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Session 3

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part II

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES; Melinda Marquis, NOAA

3.1

Recent Advances in Three-Dimensional PBL Parameterization to Improve Wind Forecasting over Complex Terrain

2:15 PM

3.2

Assessment of the WRF Wind Farm Parameterization for Easterly Wake Events during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

Rochelle Worsnop, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist, B. Kosovic, P. A. Jimenez, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, and B. J. McCarty

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3.3

Boundary Layer Depth Variability Over Complex Terrain as Observed During the WFIP2

Paytsar Muradyan, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL; and R. Coulter, R. Kotamarthi, D. Cook, T. J. Martin, H. J. S. Fernando, L. Leo, and S. Otarola

2:45 PM

3.4

Comparison of Boundary Layer Heights in the Columba River Gorge and Basin form Wind Profiling Radars and Numerical Weather Prediction Models during WFIP2

Laura Bianco, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, J. M. Wilczak, K. McCaffrey, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, K. Lantz, and C. N. Long

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3.5

Cloud Fraction and Cloud Base Measurements from Scanning Doppler Lidar during WFIP-2

Timothy A. Bonin, NOAA/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. N. Long, K. Lantz, A. Choukulkar, Y. Pichugina, B. J. McCarty, R. M. Banta, W. A. Brewer, and M. Marquis

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3.6

Surface Solar Radiation Observations at Three Sites across the Columbia River Basin as Part of the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP-2)

Kathleen Lantz, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. N. Long, A. McComiskey, A. Kumler, M. Marquis, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, G. B. Hodges, E. Hall, and J. Wendell

3:30 PM

3.7

Evaluating Model Skill at Predicting Recurrent Diurnal Summertime Wind Patterns in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP-2

Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, C. Bonfanti, B. J. McCarty, T. A. Bonin, S. P. Sandberg, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, S. Benjamin, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, A. McComiskey, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, J. Wilczak, J. Sharp, D. Cook, R. Eckman, M. T. Stoelinga, J. McCaa, M. Marquis, W. J. Shaw, and J. W. Cline

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3.8

Advancing NWP Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain by Lidar Technology

Yelena Pichugina, NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. Banta, T. A. Bonin, A. W. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, B. J. McCarty, J. W. Cline, H. J. S. Fernando, J. Kenyon, R. Krishnamurthy, M. Marquis, and J. B. Olson

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

3.9

WFIP2 Experiment: Wind Speed Ramp Events at 80 m above the Ground

Irina V. Djalalova, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, J. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, E. Akish, M. T. Stoelinga, L. K. Berg, D. Cook, R. Coulter, R. Eckman, H. J. S. Fernando, E. P. Grimit, L. Leo, M. Marquis, P. Muradyan, S. Otarola, M. Pekour, G. Scott, and J. Sharp

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 1

Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

257

Can Surface Roughness Changes Explain Terrestrial Wind Stilling?

Jacob Coburn, Univ. of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN

258

Using Lidar and Nacelle-Mounted Anemometer Measurements to Analyze a Complex Terrain Effect on Wind Flow Pattern

Brandi J. McCarty, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, A. Brewer, M. Marquis, and J. Sharp

259

WFIP2 Validation and Verification Strategy

Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and R. Banta, L. K. Berg, L. Bianco, T. A. Bonin, A. Choukulkar, A. Clifton, J. W. Cline, E. Colon, I. V. Djalalova, E. P. Grimit, K. Holub, J. S. Kenyon, B. Kosovic, V. R. Kotamarthi, K. Lantz, C. Long, J. K. Lundquist, J. McCaa, K. McCaffrey, J. F. Newman, J. B. Olson, Y. Pichugina, J. Sharp, W. J. Shaw, N. H. Smith, M. D. Toy, V. Ghate, and R. Worsnop

Poster 260 has been moved. New paper number is 1.3A

261

Overview of WFIP2 Model Validation Efforts

Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, R. Banta, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, B. J. McCarty, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, M. Toy, K. Holub, R. Pierce, C. Draxl, J. F. Newman, A. Clifton, J. K. Lundquist, R. Worsnop, B. C. Ancell, L. K. Berg, K. A. Lundquist, and J. W. Cline

262

Can Wakes be Accurately Characterized in Complex Terrain?

Aditya Choukulkar, Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and B. J. McCarty, Y. Pichugina, T. A. Bonin, R. M. Banta, S. P. Sandberg, A. Weickmann, and W. A. Brewer

263

Analysis of Waked Wind Flow in Complex Terrain from Doppler Lidar Measurements

Yelena Pichugina, NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and N. Persson, A. Choukulkar, R. M. Banta, T. A. Bonin, W. A. Brewer, B. J. McCarty, S. P. Sandberg, and A. M. Weickmann

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Ryan Symposium Reception

Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 4

New Methods for Wind Forecasting

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC; Bradfield Lyon, Columbia University/IRI

8:30 AM

4.1

A Statistical Approach to Forecasting of Seasonal Anomalies in Wind for Renewable Power Production

Fred Schmude, StormGeo, Houston, TX; and K. Larson and J. Basciani

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4.2

Improving the Analog Ensemble Wind Power Forecasts for Rare Events

Stefano Alessandrini, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Delle Monache, S. Sperati, and S. E. Haupt

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4.3

Generating Wind Power Scenarios for Probabilistic Ramp Event Prediction Using Multivariate Statistical Post-Processing

Rochelle Worsnop, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Scheuerer, T. M. Hamill, and J. K. Lundquist

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.4

Benefits of a Multimodel Ensemble for Hub-Height Wind Prediction in Mountainous Terrain

David M. Siuta, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.5

2017−18 HRRRv3/RAPv4 Cloud and Wind Modeling/Assimilation Improvements toward Increased Renewable Penetration

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, T. Ladwig, E. P. James, C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, and M. Marquis

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4.6

Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using Remote Sensing Data: Experiments with a LIDAR Simulator

Laura Valldecabres Sanmartin, Forwind, Univ. of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany; and G. Steinfeld, L. von Bremen, and M. Kühn

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Themed Joint Session 3

Communicating Information and Risk in the Energy Sector

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Eighth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )

Cochairs: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC; Aidan Tuohy, Electric Power Research Institute

Panelists: Stephen Bennett, Riskpulse; G. David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Inc.; Jason Samenow, The Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang; George McLean, Avangrid; Sue Haupt, NCAR

Joint Session 28

MJO Impacts on Global Weather and the Energy Sector

Location: Room 2 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Sixth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )

Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

10:30 AM

J28.1

Hindcast Simulations of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in CESM: Assessing the Role of Regional Resolution Variations and Parameterized Physics

Richard B. Neale, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Hannay, J. Olson, M. Rothstein, and D. Coleman

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J28.2

Evaluating NOAA Climate Forecast System Global Subseasonal Forecasts with an Emphasis on Tropical Convection

Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J28.3

CFS Hindcast Skill and MJO Propagation across the Maritime Continent

Carl J. Schreck III,

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J28.4

Extratropical Response to Fast and Slow Episodes of Madden–Julian Oscillation in Observation and Using Intervention Experiments with CFSv2

Priyanka Yadav, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J28.5

Multimodel MJO Simulation and Prediction in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX)

Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J28.6

Subseasonal Prediction of Significant Wave Heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans: The Impact of MJO and ENSO

Ravi Shukla, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and J. L. Kinter III and C. S. Shin

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Session 5

Wind and Solar Forecasting

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Chair: Aditya Choukulkar, Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division

2:00 PM

5.1

Research to Operations Needs in Renewable Energy Forecasting

Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC, Portland, OR; and A. Tuohy

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

5.2A

Coastal Stratocumulus Cloud Edge Forecast

Elynn Wu, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and R. E. S. Clemesha and J. Kleissl

Recorded Presentation

5.2

Performance of WRF Wind Speed Forecast in La Rumorosa Wind Farm, Sierra De Juarez, Baja California, Mexico

2:30 PM

5.3

Quantifying Wake Impacts on Downwind Wind Farms Using the WRF Wind Farm Parameterization

Jessica M. Tomaszewski, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist, D. T. Kaffine, K. K. DuVivier, and C. Wilden

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

5.4

Simulating Impacts of Real-World Wind Farms on Land Surface Temperature Using the WRF Model: Physical Mechanisms

Geng Xia, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Zhou, J. R. Minder, P. A. Jimenez, and R. G. Fovell

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

5.5

Surface Heat Flux Effects on Wind Turbine Wakes and Power Estimation in the Convective Boundary Layer

Jordan Nielson, Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX; and K. Bhaganagar

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

5.6

Advancing Radiative Transfer Models for Solar Energy Applications

Yu Xie, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

3:30 PM

5.7

Sky Imaging Network for Intra-Hour Spatial Solar Forecasts

Mengying Li, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and Y. Chu, D. Larson, H. T. C. Pedro, and C. F. M. Coimbra

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 2

Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

750

Irradiance Forecasting Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, Satellite Images, and Ground Sensors

Travis M. Harty, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Morzfeld, A. T. Lorenzo, and W. F. Holmgren

Poster 751 has been moved. New paper number is 5.2A.

752

Data Assimilation of Rooftop Solar Power Data to Improve Satellite Derived Irradiance Nowcasts

Antonio T. Lorenzo, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Morzfeld, T. M. Harty, and W. F. Holmgren

753

Evaluation of Solar Radiation Forecasts of the Operational WRF-RTFDDA NWP System at CEPRI

Poster 754 has been moved. New paper number is 9.3A.

755

Expressing Solar Power Forecast Uncertainty

Stephen D. Jascourt, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Cassidy, E. E. Wertz, and T. Hartman

Handout (1.7 MB)

757

A Statistical Analysis of Suburban Surface Temperatures and Their Relationship to Electricity Use

Rebecca Huff, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. S. Jin

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 6

Verification and Validation on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale to support the National Earth System Prediction Capability

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; David McCarren, CNMOC

8:15 AM

ESPC Introduction Slide - Carl James

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

6.1

U.S Air Force Weather Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Pushing the Limits of Predictability to Optimize National Defense

Ralph O. Stoffler, U.S. Air Force, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

6.2

Operational Environmental Modeling Across Scales

Hendrik Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

6.3

NOAA’s Strategy to Improve Operational Subseasonal Prediction for Weather Outlooks

Timothy L. Schneider, NWS/Office of Science and Technology Integration, Boulder, CO; and F. Toepfer, D. DeWitt, V. Tallapragada, H. Tolman, A. Chawla, D. T. Kleist, T. M. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

6.4

NCEP's Next Generation Coupled Forecast System for Subseasonal to Seasonal Scales

Arun Chawla, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. T. Kleist, S. Saha, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

6.5

Examining Subseasonal Prediction Skill using a Prototype Unified Global Coupled System at NCEP

Christopher Melhauser, NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, M. Peña, and H. van den Dool

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

6.6

Real-Time and Retrospective 3−4-Week Forecasting for the NOAA Subseasonal Experiment with the FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, B. Green, G. Grell, and R. Bleck

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

6.7

Spatial Approaches to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. P. Kalb, C. M. Ammann, and R. G. Bullock

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 7

Wind Resource Assessment

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Jennifer Newman, REsurety, Inc.; Jerry Crescenti

10:30 AM

7.1

Evaluating the Methodology of Assessing Interannual Variability of Wind Speed

Joseph C.-Y. Lee, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Fields and J. K. Lundquist

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

7.2

Buoy-Based Observations of the Wind Profile and Associated Conditions off the U.S. East Coast over an Annual Cycle

William J. Shaw, PNNL, Richland, WA; and R. K. Newsom and M. Pekour

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

7.3

Evaluating Wind Power Prediction Uncertainty Using Scanning Doppler Wind Lidar

Alexandra St. Pé, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and M. Sperling, A. Choukulkar, C. L. Archer, and R. Delgado

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

7.4

Lessons Learned from Sodar Fleet Operation, 2008−2017

Andrew Hastings Black, Vaisala, Inc., Louisville, CO

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

9ENERGY Town Hall: Communicating Energy Information in the State of Texas: Best Practices and Lessons Learned

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Lecture 2

2018 Horton Lecture

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM

L2.1

Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)

Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Session 8

Resilient Business Decisions in the Midst of Weather and Climate Uncertainty

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Heidi Centola, AMS BEED; Lawrence C. Gloeckler III, Riskpulse; Michael Dettinger, USGS

1:30 PM

8.1

Transforming Risk Communication with Probability Forecasts for Energy—Weeks to a Century or More

John A. Dutton, ClimBiz Ltd and Prescient Weather Ltd., State College, PA; and R. P. James and J. D. Ross

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

8.2

The Climate Resilient Grid: A Report on the Forum on Energy, Climate, and the Grid

Marjorie McGuirk, CASE Consultants International, Asheville, NC; and J. Dissen and S. Herring

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

8.3

Effects of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Distribution in New York State

Jason M. Covert, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. M. Freedman, R. Perez, A. Dai, A. Stevens, J. Manobianco, D. B. Kirk-Davidoff, J. W. Zack, and K. Pennock

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

8.4

Assessing Resilience of Electricity Generation System Under Changing Climate

Eugene Yan, ANL, Argonne, IL; and Z. Zhou, G. Betrie, and T. Veselka

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

8.5

Austin Water: Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategies

Greg Meszaros, Local Municipal Government, Austin, TX; and D. Slusher

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.1 MB)

3:00 PM

8.6

Planning for an Ever-Changing Future: Denver Water's Approach to Climate Resilience

Laurna Kaatz, Denver Water, Denver, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

Panel Discussion

Recorded Presentation

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 9

Operational and Financial Considerations in the Energy Sector

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Cochairs: Shunondo Basu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

8:30 AM

9.1

The Dual Function of Financial Market Instruments in an Environment of Climate Change Uncertainty: Protection and Speculation

Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (222.8 kB)

Handout (247.8 kB)

8:45 AM

9.2

What is Normal?

Eric E. Wertz, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Information Systems, LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and T. Hartman and R. Haas

Recorded Presentation

9.3

Private Sector Role in Establishing Papua New Guinea’s Climate and Weather Information System

9:00 AM

9.3A

Regional and National Utility-Scale Solar Generation Forecasts

Stephen D. Jascourt, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Cassidy, E. E. Wertz, and T. Hartman

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9.4

Quantifying Time-Evolving Risk to Electricity Generation Using Climate−Model Statistics: Sensitivity of Business Decisions to Probability Information

Terence R. Thompson, Logistics Management Institute, Tysons, VA

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Joint Session 52

Machine Learning Applications in the Energy Sector

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )

Cochairs: David John Gagne II, NCAR; Sue Haupt, NCAR

10:30 AM

J52.1

Impact of Targeted Measurements and Advanced Machine Learning Techniques on 0−3-h Ahead Rapid Update Wind Power and Ramp Rate Forecasts in the Tehachapi Wind Resource Area of California

Steven H. Young, UL, Albany, NY; and J. Zack

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J52.2

Development of a Thunderstorm Power Outage Prediction Model

Stephen Shield, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and D. B. McRoberts and S. M. Quiring

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J52.3

Smart Grid: A Bottom-Up Approach for Consumer Demand Forecasts

Kiley L. Yeakel, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and E. B. Wendoloski, C. M. Lawson, S. M. Vogel, and K. A. Roettiger

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J52.4

Improving the Accuracy of Cloud Detection Using Machine Learning

Mary Ellen Craddock, Northrop Grumman Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. Alliss and M. Mason

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J52.6

Improvements to Sodar Turbulence Intensity Measurements

Andrew Hastings Black, Vaisala, Inc., Louisville, CO

Recorded Presentation

J52.5

Regime-Based Forecast Corrections Using Support Vector Machines

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Lecture 3

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM

L3.1

New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation (Invited Presentation)

Clara Deser, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Session 10

Renewable Energy in Austin: A Regional Leader with the AMS Committee on Environmental Stewardship

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

1:30 PM

10.1

Renewable Energy in Austin: A Regional Leader with the AMS Committee on Environmental Stewardship (Invited Presentation)

Danielle Murray,

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Session 11

Big Data Analytics Providing Decision Support

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

CoChair: Lawrence C. Gloeckler III, Riskpulse

11.1

A Weather-Based Power Line Capacity Model Enabling Electric Grid Management Ready for the New Energy Economy

3:45 PM

11.2

Predicting Power Outages from Wet Snow and Ice Storms to Improve Grid Reliability

Jason C. Shafer, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

11.3

An Objective Thunderstorm Potential and Severity Index for Utilities

Nathan Stanford, StormGeo, Houston, TX; and F. Schmude and J. Basciani

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11.4

The Use of HRRR Forecasts in True Dynamic Line Rating

Kenneth R. Fenton Jr., NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin, M. A. Petty, M. Marquis, T. McJunkin, A. Abboud, and J. Gentle

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11.5

Assessing the Accuracy of NREL's National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)

Aron Habte, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Sengupta, A. Lopez, Y. Xie, M. J. Foster, and A. Heidinger

4:45 PM

11.6

Enabling the Increase of Energy Efficiency in Buildings by Provision of Long-Term Surface Meteorological and Solar Energy Parameters Using NASA Data Products Via GIS-Enabled Web Services

Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA; and D. J. Westberg, J. M. Hoell, A. J. Barnett, T. Bristow, and D. Crawley

Recorded Presentation

« Collapse View

» Expand View

Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

PL 1

Plenary Session 18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences

Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

PL 2

Plenary Session Welcoming Address

Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

New Projects and Opportunities for Renewable Energy Research

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

DOE projects and international collaborations for renewable energy.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part I

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

L 1

Lecture 2018 Haurwitz Lecture

Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)

2018 Haurwitz Lecture

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part II

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

WFIP2

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

P 1

Poster Session Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Monday poster session.

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Ryan Symposium Reception

Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

The Robert T. Ryan Symposium will conclude with a cocktail reception welcoming symposium attendees, along with Bob's numerous colleagues and former interns from across the weather enterprise. With a short program hosted by symposium co-chair and AMS Fellow Veronica Johnson of WJLA in Washington, D.C., this casual event will honor Bob for his distinguished career, achievements, and contributions to the American Meteorological Society.

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

New Methods for Wind Forecasting

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Abstracts related to statistical processes for wind speed and power prediction.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

TJ 3

Themed Joint Session Communicating Information and Risk in the Energy Sector

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

The Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water, and the New Energy Economy and the Eighth Conference on the Transition of Research to Operations present a Themed Joint Session on the topic of communication within the energy sector. One of the challenges of our diverse community is ensuring that necessary information is being communicated to the right people in the right ways. At the forefront of all of our communication efforts should be the clear and concise communication of risk, particularly with regards to the stability and reliability of the electric grid. In this session, a diverse array of panelists from the weather, climate, and energy communities will discuss communications challenges they face and methods for improving communication across the energy sector.

J 28

Joint Session MJO Impacts on Global Weather and the Energy Sector

Location: Room 2 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

N/A

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Wind and Solar Forecasting

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

We encourage all attendees to take the opportunity to grab a snack and coffee and spend this extended afternoon break networking with colleagues and viewing the hundreds of posters on display in the poster hall. Poster displays are grouped by conference and change each day.

P 2

Poster Session Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday posters.

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Verification and Validation on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale to support the National Earth System Prediction Capability

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Important decisions in sectors ranging from food security and public health, emergency management, and national security rely on communicated forecast and uncertainty information globally and at time scales beyond traditional weather limits. National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) is a partnership of five federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues across time scales ranging from synoptic to decadal, especially improving the two-way connection between research and operational prediction. The partnership’s greatest focus is on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time range for which both initial conditions and boundary forcings drive the state of the coupled air−ocean−land−ice environment. With the goal of improving assessments of S2S model prediction skill, prediction tools or technologies, and providing process-based feedback on model performance, this session is accepting papers describing verification and validation techniques and tools on the S2S time scale, for user needs with fundamental time scales extending across this time frame such as watershed prediction reliability, planting season precipitation, potential frost days, Arctic or Great Lakes ice breakup dates, ice extent, etc.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Wind Resource Assessment

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Topics related to resource assessment.

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

9ENERGY Town Hall: Communicating Energy Information in the State of Texas: Best Practices and Lessons Learned

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

L 2

Lecture 2018 Horton Lecture

Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Resilient Business Decisions in the Midst of Weather and Climate Uncertainty

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Businesses face many weather, climate, and other uncertainties in their planning and operations. These uncertainties are likely to increase in the future as infrastructure ages, temperatures increase, precipitation patterns change and intensify, populations grow, and economies change. While probabilistic information and uncertainty have always been an integral part of planning, design, and management, future changes in natural and human systems are forcing reassessments of how we understand and manage weather and climate risks. This session focuses on businesses that are embracing and addressing these uncertainties and scientists who work in partnership with them to develop ways to support adaptive management and resilient planning in this increasingly uncertain world. We seek innovators, both business representatives and scientists, who are working to bridge the research−business gulf and welcome examples focused on improving business planning and operations, as well as examples of research activities transitioning into, or enabled by, business-centered operations.

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Operational and Financial Considerations in the Energy Sector

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

J 52

Joint Session Machine Learning Applications in the Energy Sector

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

L 3

Lecture Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Room 16AB (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Renewable Energy in Austin: A Regional Leader with the AMS Committee on Environmental Stewardship

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

The session will feature a talk from Danielle Murray, Manager of Solar Energy Services at Austin Energy. The purpose of the session is to provide an overview of how Austin and the surrounding region are incorporating sustainable energy into their power mix.

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Big Data Analytics Providing Decision Support

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

» Expand View

Session 11 Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018