Session 11 Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chairs: Andrew Clifton , WindForS Wind Energy Research Cluster ; Jennifer F. Newman , REsurety ; Lawrence C. Gloeckler III , Riskpulse
Reviewers: Michael Dettinger , USGS ; Kathleen Miller , NCAR ; Melinda Marquis , NOAA ; Yelena L. Pichugina , NOAA ; Caroline Draxl , National Renewable Energy Laboratory ; Justin Sharp , Sharply Focused LLC ; Jerry Crescenti ; David John Gagne II , NCAR ; Jessie C. Carman , OAR

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
New Projects and Opportunities for Renewable Energy Research
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jeff Freedman, SUNY
8:45 AM
1.1
Meteorology Research in DOE’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Program
Joel W. Cline, DOE, Washington, DC; and W. J. Shaw and S. Haupt
9:00 AM
1.2
The U.S. DOE Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling Project: Extending Boundary Layer Flow Simulation to Complex Environments
Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA; and S. E. Haupt
9:15 AM
1.3A
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting
Gregor Giebel, DTU Technical Univ. of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; and J. W. Cline, C. Draxl, H. P. Frank, B. M. Hodge, G. Kariniotakis, J. W. Messner, C. Möhrlen, P. Pinson, and W. J. Shaw
9:30 AM
1.4
Validation of a 14-year High-Resolution WRF Dataset for Wind Resource Assessment over Alaska
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Xue, A. J. Newman, A. J. Monaghan, P. Doubrawa, C. Draxl, L. Kilcher, and G. Scott
9:45 AM
1.5
Five-Year Continental and Offshore Unified Wind and Solar Dataset from the Experimental HRRR Model: Preliminary Verification and Dataset Uses
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. Marquis

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part I

Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Yelena Pichugina, NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
10:30 AM
2.1
The Wind Forecast Improvement Prohect 2 (WFIP2): Overview and Preliminary Model Improvements
Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Olson, J. Kenyon, M. D. Toy, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, S. Redfern, J. McCaa, E. P. Grimit, J. W. Cline, W. Shaw, and J. Sharp
10:45 AM
2.2
Improvements to Low-Level Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain from WFIP2
Jaymes S. Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, M. D. Toy, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, M. Marquis, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, S. Redfern, J. Sharp, J. McCaa, M. T. Stoelinga, E. P. Grimit, J. W. Cline, W. J. Shaw, J. K. Lundquist, K. A. Lundquist, B. Kosovic, P. A. Jimenez, L. K. Berg, and V. R. Kotamarthi
11:00 AM
2.3
Identification and Analysis of Forecast Model Large Error Events During WFIP2
James Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. McCaffrey, I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, M. T. Stoelinga, J. Sharp, M. Pekour, D. Cook, G. Scott, R. Eckman, and S. Otarola-Bustos
11:15 AM
2.4
Identification and Characterization of Cold Pool Events during WFIP2
Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Wilczak, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, R. Banta, T. A. Bonin, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, D. Cook, R. L. Coulter, H. J. S. Fernando, K. Friedrich, L. Leo, J. K. Lundquist, P. Muradyan, and Y. Pichugina
11:45 AM
2.6

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part II
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES; Melinda Marquis, NOAA
2:15 PM
3.2
Assessment of the WRF Wind Farm Parameterization for Easterly Wake Events during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project
Rochelle Worsnop, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist, B. Kosovic, P. A. Jimenez, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, and B. J. McCarty
2:30 PM
3.3
Boundary Layer Depth Variability Over Complex Terrain as Observed During the WFIP2
Paytsar Muradyan, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL; and R. Coulter, R. Kotamarthi, D. Cook, T. J. Martin, H. J. S. Fernando, L. Leo, and S. Otarola

3:00 PM
3.5
Cloud Fraction and Cloud Base Measurements from Scanning Doppler Lidar during WFIP-2
Timothy A. Bonin, NOAA/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. N. Long, K. Lantz, A. Choukulkar, Y. Pichugina, B. J. McCarty, R. M. Banta, W. A. Brewer, and M. Marquis
3:15 PM
3.6
3:30 PM
3.7
Evaluating Model Skill at Predicting Recurrent Diurnal Summertime Wind Patterns in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP-2
Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, C. Bonfanti, B. J. McCarty, T. A. Bonin, S. P. Sandberg, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, S. Benjamin, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, A. McComiskey, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, J. Wilczak, J. Sharp, D. Cook, R. Eckman, M. T. Stoelinga, J. McCaa, M. Marquis, W. J. Shaw, and J. W. Cline
3:45 PM
3.8
Advancing NWP Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain by Lidar Technology
Yelena Pichugina, NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. Banta, T. A. Bonin, A. W. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, B. J. McCarty, J. W. Cline, H. J. S. Fernando, J. Kenyon, R. Krishnamurthy, M. Marquis, and J. B. Olson
4:00 PM
3.9
WFIP2 Experiment: Wind Speed Ramp Events at 80 m above the Ground
Irina V. Djalalova, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, J. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, E. Akish, M. T. Stoelinga, L. K. Berg, D. Cook, R. Coulter, R. Eckman, H. J. S. Fernando, E. P. Grimit, L. Leo, M. Marquis, P. Muradyan, S. Otarola, M. Pekour, G. Scott, and J. Sharp

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 1
Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
258
Using Lidar and Nacelle-Mounted Anemometer Measurements to Analyze a Complex Terrain Effect on Wind Flow Pattern
Brandi J. McCarty, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, A. Brewer, M. Marquis, and J. Sharp

259
WFIP2 Validation and Verification Strategy
Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and R. Banta, L. K. Berg, L. Bianco, T. A. Bonin, A. Choukulkar, A. Clifton, J. W. Cline, E. Colon, I. V. Djalalova, E. P. Grimit, K. Holub, J. S. Kenyon, B. Kosovic, V. R. Kotamarthi, K. Lantz, C. Long, J. K. Lundquist, J. McCaa, K. McCaffrey, J. F. Newman, J. B. Olson, Y. Pichugina, J. Sharp, W. J. Shaw, N. H. Smith, M. D. Toy, V. Ghate, and R. Worsnop

Poster 260 has been moved. New paper number is 1.3A

261
Overview of WFIP2 Model Validation Efforts
Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, R. Banta, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, B. J. McCarty, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, M. Toy, K. Holub, R. Pierce, C. Draxl, J. F. Newman, A. Clifton, J. K. Lundquist, R. Worsnop, B. C. Ancell, L. K. Berg, K. A. Lundquist, and J. W. Cline

262
Can Wakes be Accurately Characterized in Complex Terrain?
Aditya Choukulkar, Univ. of Colorado/NOAA/ESRL/Chemcal Sciences Division (CSD), Boulder, DC; and B. J. McCarty, Y. Pichugina, T. A. Bonin, R. M. Banta, S. P. Sandberg, A. Weickmann, and W. A. Brewer

263
Analysis of Waked Wind Flow in Complex Terrain from Doppler Lidar Measurements
Yelena Pichugina, NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and N. Persson, A. Choukulkar, R. M. Banta, T. A. Bonin, W. A. Brewer, B. J. McCarty, S. P. Sandberg, and A. M. Weickmann

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4
New Methods for Wind Forecasting
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC; Bradfield Lyon, Columbia University/IRI
9:15 AM
4.4
9:30 AM
4.5
2017−18 HRRRv3/RAPv4 Cloud and Wind Modeling/Assimilation Improvements toward Increased Renewable Penetration
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, T. Ladwig, E. P. James, C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, and M. Marquis

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Themed Joint Session 3
Communicating Information and Risk in the Energy Sector
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Eighth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC; Aidan Tuohy, Electric Power Research Institute
Panelists: Stephen Bennett, Riskpulse; G. David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Inc.; Jason Samenow, The Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang; George McLean, Avangrid; Sue Haupt, NCAR
Recording files available
Joint Session 28
MJO Impacts on Global Weather and the Energy Sector
Location: Room 2 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Sixth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Wind and Solar Forecasting
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Aditya Choukulkar, Univ. of Colorado/NOAA/ESRL/Chemcal Sciences Division (CSD)
2:15 PM
5.2A
Coastal Stratocumulus Cloud Edge Forecast
Elynn Wu, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and R. E. S. Clemesha and J. Kleissl
3:00 PM
5.5
3:15 PM
5.6
Advancing Radiative Transfer Models for Solar Energy Applications
Yu Xie, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

3:30 PM
5.7
Sky Imaging Network for Intra-Hour Spatial Solar Forecasts
Mengying Li, Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and Y. Chu, D. Larson, H. T. C. Pedro, and C. F. M. Coimbra

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session 2
Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Poster 751 has been moved. New paper number is 5.2A.

Poster 754 has been moved. New paper number is 9.3A.

755
Expressing Solar Power Forecast Uncertainty
Stephen D. Jascourt, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Cassidy, E. E. Wertz, and T. Hartman

Handout (1.7 MB)

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6
Verification and Validation on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale to support the National Earth System Prediction Capability
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC
8:15 AM
ESPC Introduction Slide - Carl James
9:45 AM
6.6

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 7
Wind Resource Assessment
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Jennifer Newman, REsurety, Inc.; Jerry Crescenti
10:30 AM
7.1
11:00 AM
7.3
Evaluating Wind Power Prediction Uncertainty Using Scanning Doppler Wind Lidar
Alexandra St. Pé, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and M. Sperling, A. Choukulkar, C. L. Archer, and R. Delgado

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


9ENERGY Town Hall: Communicating Energy Information in the State of Texas: Best Practices and Lessons Learned
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 2
2018 Horton Lecture
Location: Room 18A (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
1:30 PM
L2.1
Rain Rates from Space: Past & Future (Invited Presentation)
Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 8
Resilient Business Decisions in the Midst of Weather and Climate Uncertainty
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Heidi Centola, AMS BEED; Lawrence C. Gloeckler III, Riskpulse; Michael Dettinger, USGS
1:30 PM
8.1
2:30 PM
8.4
2:45 PM
8.5
Austin Water: Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategies
Greg Meszaros, Local Municipal Government, Austin, TX; and D. Slusher
3:15 PM
Panel Discussion

Thursday, 11 January 2018

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 9
Operational and Financial Considerations in the Energy Sector
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Shunondo Basu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
8:45 AM
9.2
What is Normal?
Eric E. Wertz, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Information Systems, LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and T. Hartman and R. Haas
9:00 AM
9.3A
Regional and National Utility-Scale Solar Generation Forecasts
Stephen D. Jascourt, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Cassidy, E. E. Wertz, and T. Hartman

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Joint Session 52
Machine Learning Applications in the Energy Sector
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the 17th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: David John Gagne II, NCAR; Sue Haupt, NCAR
10:45 AM
J52.2
11:00 AM
J52.3
Smart Grid: A Bottom-Up Approach for Consumer Demand Forecasts
Kiley L. Yeakel, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and E. B. Wendoloski, C. M. Lawson, S. M. Vogel, and K. A. Roettiger
11:15 AM
J52.4
Improving the Accuracy of Cloud Detection Using Machine Learning
Mary Ellen Craddock, Northrop Grumman Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. Alliss and M. Mason

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 11
Big Data Analytics Providing Decision Support
Location: Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
CoChair: Lawrence C. Gloeckler III, Riskpulse
3:45 PM
11.2
4:15 PM
11.4
The Use of HRRR Forecasts in True Dynamic Line Rating
Kenneth R. Fenton Jr., NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin, M. A. Petty, M. Marquis, T. McJunkin, A. Abboud, and J. Gentle