Assessing Resilience of Electricity Generation System Under Changing Climate

There is growing concern over the potential impacts of climate variability on electricity generation. In the past decade, the power sector as one of the largest water users has experienced various levels of curtailment due to a lack of water and/or elevated water temperature. As weather extremes (e.g. drought and heatwave), water shortage, and thermal effects become more prevalent, the water-intensive power sector will become less reliable, more vulnerable, and increasingly prone to disruptions. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water-use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interactions among water and electricity generation systems under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water-use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technologies. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.