Session 6 Verification and Validation on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale to support the National Earth System Prediction Capability

Wednesday, 10 January 2018: 8:15 AM-10:00 AM
Room 15 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Ninth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD and David McCarren, CNMOC, NWS/STI, Silver Springs, MD

Important decisions in sectors ranging from food security and public health, emergency management, and national security rely on communicated forecast and uncertainty information globally and at time scales beyond traditional weather limits. National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) is a partnership of five federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues across time scales ranging from synoptic to decadal, especially improving the two-way connection between research and operational prediction. The partnership’s greatest focus is on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time range for which both initial conditions and boundary forcings drive the state of the coupled air−ocean−land−ice environment. With the goal of improving assessments of S2S model prediction skill, prediction tools or technologies, and providing process-based feedback on model performance, this session is accepting papers describing verification and validation techniques and tools on the S2S time scale, for user needs with fundamental time scales extending across this time frame such as watershed prediction reliability, planting season precipitation, potential frost days, Arctic or Great Lakes ice breakup dates, ice extent, etc.

8:15 AM
ESPC Introduction Slide - Carl James
8:45 AM
Operational Environmental Modeling Across Scales
Hendrik Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer
9:00 AM
NOAA’s Strategy to Improve Operational Subseasonal Prediction for Weather Outlooks
Timothy L. Schneider, NWS/Office of Science and Technology Integration, Boulder, CO; and F. Toepfer, D. DeWitt, V. Tallapragada, H. Tolman, A. Chawla, D. T. Kleist, T. M. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker
9:15 AM
NCEP's Next Generation Coupled Forecast System for Subseasonal to Seasonal Scales
Arun Chawla, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. T. Kleist, S. Saha, and V. Tallapragada
9:30 AM
Examining Subseasonal Prediction Skill using a Prototype Unified Global Coupled System at NCEP
Christopher Melhauser, NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, M. Peña, and H. van den Dool
9:45 AM
10:00 AM
Spatial Approaches to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. P. Kalb, C. M. Ammann, and R. G. Bullock
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner