Exploring the Limitations of Impact-Based Decision Support Services Based on Remote Sensing Using High-Resolution Hail Reports

Short-term forecasts for convective hazards are highly dependent on observations, both remotely sensed observations like those from radar and observations of the actual hazard. Assuming observations of the hazard have not occurred, impact-based decision support services (IDSS) would be dependent on remote sensing observations alone. The ability of the instrument to accurately detect and describe the forecasted hazard would be the exclusive basis for the IDSS forecast. The Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and the National Severe Storms Laboratory have two data sets that can allow for an exploration of the limitations of radar-based IDSS forecasts for hail. The first data set is the hail database collected during the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE), which collected hail at a high spatial resolution for thunderstorms across the United States. The second data set is the Multi-Year Reanalysis Of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS), which is all WSR-88D data processed through the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) framework for the years 1998 through 2011. This presentation will explore both single-radar and MRMS products and signatures, their relation to hail of specific and general sizes, and the lead times for those hail sizes. The MYRORSS database will be used apply the findings of the SHAVE analysis to a large data set and explore the skill of the findings using Storm Data over a larger period than the SHAVE database allows. The MYRORSS data base can also be used to explore other aspects of IDSS applications within the MRMS framework, such as storm identification and tracking. Discussions on polarimetric applications, future MRMS work, and the need for special verification data sets, such as SHAVE, for IDSS applications will be included.