There are tremendous potential societal and economic benefits from improving the skill of sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Congress defined S2S as the period from 14 to 90 days, out to two years. Yet forecasting for this period is particularly challenging as the sources of predictability change and grow in uncertainty, and the nature of the forecast itself changes, becoming more probabistic. The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (Public Law 115–25) included language for NOAA that is intended to accelerate advancements in S2S. This panel will discuss the current capabilities, state of the science, and ideas and plans for advancing this capability across the weather, water and climate enterprise (public, private, and academic).
Session Objective: Lay the groundwork community discussion around sub seasonal to seasonal prediction