Session 3 Where Weather and Climate Diverge: The Challenges and Opportunities of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction

Tuesday, 27 October 2020: 2:30 PM-3:30 PM
Host: 2020 AMS Washington Forum
Moderator:
Andrea Lopez Lang, SUNY, Department of Environmental and Atmospheric Science, Albany, NY
Speakers:
Andrea Lopez Lang, SUNY, Department of Environmental and Atmospheric Science, Albany, NY; Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO; David Dewitt, Climate Prediction Center and Mike Ventrice, NCAR, RAL, Boulder, CO

There are tremendous potential societal and economic benefits from improving the skill of sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions.  Congress defined S2S as the period from 14 to 90 days, out to two years. Yet forecasting for this period is particularly challenging as the sources of predictability change and grow in uncertainty, and the nature of the forecast itself changes, becoming more probabistic. The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (Public Law 115–25) included language for NOAA that is intended to accelerate advancements in S2S. This panel will discuss the current capabilities, state of the science, and ideas and plans for advancing this capability across the weather, water and climate enterprise (public, private, and academic).

Session Objective: Lay the groundwork community discussion around sub seasonal to seasonal prediction

Papers:
2:30 PM
Andrea Lopez Lang
Andrea Lopez Lang, SUNY, Albany, NY

2:45 PM
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Elizabeth Barnes, Colorado State University

3:00 PM
David G. DeWitt
David Dewitt, NOAA, College Park, MD

3:15 PM
Michael Ventrice
Mike Ventrice, The Weather Company, an IBM Business

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