The talk will focus on the current environment for weather and climate research, and how the current situation developed in terms of both political and public skepticism and the dynamics inside the research community.  Top findings from the last couple of years reported in Science will be discussed. Finally, ideas will be discussed for ensuring a continued, healthy pace of scientific progress and greater public acceptance.

About the Lecture Series

This lecture series is in memory of Dr. James (Jim) Richard Mahoney who passed away in September 2015. The Annual Lecture has been initiated by a group of his former colleagues and will be conducted in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), two organizations pivotal to Jim’s professional career. The Annual Lecture will honor Jim’s memory in perpetuity by featuring an annual lecture by a distinguished speaker on a relevant environmental science and/or policy issue of the day.

Dr. Kelvin K. Droegemeier is the 18^th Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Before joining the White House, Kelvin served as the Vice President for Research and Regents’ Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. He earned a B.S. in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in atmospheric science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He co-founded and directed the National Science Foundation’s Science and Technology Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, and NSF Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere, and he has served two six-year terms (four years as Vice Chairman) on the National Science Board, under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He has testified before Congress on seven occasions and was appointed in 2017 as Oklahoma Cabinet Secretary of Science and Technology. Dr. Droegemeier has served on and chaired numerous national boards and committees and is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and American Association for the Advancement of Science. In his 33 years at Oklahoma, Dr. Droegemeier generated over $40 million in research funding, authoring or co-authoring more than 80 refereed articles and over 200 conference publications.

Dr. Neil Jacobs is the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction, performing the duties of Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere. In this role, Dr. Jacobs is responsible for the strategic direction and oversight of over $3.4 billion

in annual spending, supporting NOAA's broad portfolio of sea, air, land, and space observing platforms as well as the critical infrastructure for the assimilation and exploitation of

environmental data. Previously as the Chief Atmospheric Scientist at Panasonic Avionics Corporation, he directed the research and development of both the aviation weather observing platform and weather forecast model programs. He was previously the Chair of the American Meteorological Society’s Forecast Improvement Group, and also served on the World Meteorological Organization’s aircraft-based observing systems expert team. Dr. Jacobs holds a bachelor degree in mathematics and physics from the University of South Carolina and masters and doctoral degrees in atmospheric science from North Carolina State University.

As new and emerging technology improves forecast model output, and the need for decision support continues to grow, how is the role of the operational forecaster evolving?

Session Topics

• New and emerging challenges operational weather forecasters face in producing products (e.g., warnings, forecasts, etc.)
• Progress of AI and machine learning to streamline the forecasting process
• Growing need for operational forecasters to provide Decision Support Services to partners and clients
• Strengths of, and opportunities with, EPIC, NOAA Community-based Modeling program

The continuing growth of adverse impacts from weather and climate on public safety and economies globally has led to an increasing emphasis on associated risk management by government and corporate organizations. For example, the Global Risks 2020 report1 produced by the World Economic Forum analyzes dozens of significant risks, including weapons of mass destruction, geopolitical instability, economic crashes, and others. The report states that “...environmental risks have grown in prominence in recent years. For the first time, “extreme weather events,” “natural disasters,” and “failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation” are in the top five global risks for both impact and likelihood of occurrence within the next ten years. These topics were all prominent on the agenda at the recent WEF meeting in Davos Switzerland earlier this year. 

This data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI shows the magnitude of some of these risks. For example, in 2019 alone, there were 14 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. From 1980 to 2019, the U.S. has sustained 258 weather and climate disasters where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2019). The total cost of these 258 events exceeds $1.75 trillion. If we count in the smaller, events, the total financial impact from weather and climate related disasters significantly exceeds this number. 

The panel members in this session will discuss financial risk management for both near-term extreme weather events and longer-term climate change phenomena. As experts in relevant science and financial aspects, the panelists should stimulate an active session on this important subject. Their discussions will include some issues from the recent WEF meeting, as well as other related topics from their professional activities. 

Session Organization – 60 minutes 

Introduction – 5 minutes 

Panelists 1,2,3,4 - 10 minutes each for prepared remarks 

Q&A – 15 minutes 

Session Objective: Lay the groundwork community discussion around sub seasonal to seasonal prediction

“As the scientific enterprise evolves, all stakeholders in the scientific community have an ethical obligation to place a high priority on instilling and championing the highest standards of scientific integrity in these new settings and applications.”

The Institute of Defense Analysis (IDA) Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) conducted a review of 24 Federal agency scientific integrity policies, to identify potential good practices for meeting or exceeding the principles identified in the 2010 OSTP Memorandum on Scientific Integrity, and to suggest ways of strengthening the policies to reflect current interests and developments. 

The American Meteorological Society’s Washington Forum, by offering the session, Truth in Science: Ensuring Scientific Integrity is taking up the last recommendation from the IDA report that was issued in December 2016.  It said: [There should be] further discussion regarding what constitutes scientific integrity: A topic worthy of further collective consideration is the variation in agencies’ definition and use of the term “scientific integrity.” 

While at Albany, Joseph co-led the $30.5 million New York State Mesonet for advanced weather
detection and the New York State Center of Excellence for the Weather Enterprise. He has served as
principal or co-principal investigator on over $90 million in research grants from NSF, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, the Army High Performance Computing Research
Center, and other agencies. He joined the UCAR Board of Trustees in 2011, where his colleagues elected
him vice chair in 2015 and chair in 2017.

Joseph has been a member of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the National Academy
of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine since 2014. Other roles have included membership on the
Steering Committee of the NASEM Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from space; the
NOAA Science Advisory Board; and the American Meteorological Society Commission on the Weather,
Water and Climate Enterprise. He also is principal investigator for the NSF-sponsored US-Taiwan
Program for International Research and Education and co-PI on the NOAA Aerosol and Ocean Science
Expeditions, a series of trans-Atlantic intensive observation campaigns to gain an understanding of the
impacts of long-range transport of aerosols over the tropical ocean.

Prior to his position at the University at Albany, Joseph was director of Howard University's Program in
Atmospheric Sciences, where he dedicated himself to teaching, mentoring, and inspiring the next
generation. He also served as director of the Beltsville Center for Climate System Observation, a NASA
University Research Center. In that position, he brought together colleagues at Howard, NASA, NOAA,
Penn State, University of Maryland Baltimore County, and other institutions to develop an
interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, multi-agency center studying key atmospheric processes with
particular relevance to predictive capability in weather, climate, and air quality.

Joseph earned his Ph.D. in physics with an emphasis on atmospheric science from the University at
Albany.

The first day of the workshop consisted of defining the “gap”, the second day focused on filling  the gap, and the final day emphasized the development of short- and long-term recommendations. The five core workshop objectives were:

1. To identify curriculum gaps related to preparing students for careers in the private sector
2. To discuss these gaps, challenges, and creative solutions that can be scaled across the academic and private sectors
3. To create a set of recommendations that can be used by departments across the country to modify their curricula in order to address these gaps
4. To create a set of recommendations for the private sector to take a more active role in directly addressing skills gaps through internships, capstones, and partnerships with academic programs, and
5. To promote future venues for sparking mutual innovation between the private sector and academia, driven by students

This session will summarize workshop activities and provide updates on subsequent accomplishments to date. New initiatives, obstacles, and lessons learned will also be outlined. Representatives from each sector will lead the discussion, and audience participation is highly encouraged.