Session 3 |
| | weather forecasting |
| | Organizer: Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
|
| 8:30 AM | 3.1 | The new NWS MOS development and implementation systems
Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle |
| 8:45 AM | 3.2 | The new AVN/MRF MOS development and model changes: a volatile mix? 
Mary C. Erickson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle and K. L. Carroll |
| 9:00 AM | 3.3 | Progress in the development of the Canadian updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system
Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and M. Vallée |
| 9:15 AM | 3.4 | TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada—Part One: Introduction and development of the very short-range module
Pierre Bourgouin, Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Montpetit, R. Verret, and L. J. Wilson |
| 9:30 AM | 3.5 | TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada Part two—Development of the short-range forecast module and results
Jacques Montpetit, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. J. Wilson, and R. Verret |
| 9:45 AM | 3.6 | Ensemble, dynamic MOS
Peter P. Neilley, Weather Services International, Inc., Billerica, MA; and W. Myers and G. S. Young |
| 10:00 AM | | Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
|
| 10:30 AM | 3.7 | Combining forecasts for superior prediction
Gregory S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 10:45 AM | 3.8 | Looking far back vs. looking around enough: operational weather forecasting by spatial composition of recent observations
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 11:00 AM | 3.9 | Surface wind gust statistics at the Savannah River Site
Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and M. J. Parker and J. H. Weber |
| 11:15 AM | 3.10 | Probabilistic early warning of cloud-to-ground lightning at an airport
Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins |
| 11:30 AM | 3.11 | Statistical models for lightning prediction using Canadian Lightning Detection Network observations
William R. Burrows, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada |
| 11:45 AM | 3.12 | The value of cloud lightning in probabilistic thunderstorm warning
Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins |
| 12:00 PM | | Lunch Break
|
| 1:30 PM | 3.13 | Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type
John V. Cortinas Jr., University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. F. Brill and M. E. Baldwin |
| 1:45 PM | 3.14 | Topographic and synoptic influences on cold season severe weather events in California
Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA; and G. Martin, S. LaDochy, and J. N. Brown |
| 2:00 PM | 3.15 | The application of synoptic stratification to the statistical forecasting of rainfall and surface wind
Gregory J. Connor, Bureau of Meteorology, Townsville, Queensland, Australia |
| 2:15 PM | 3.16 | An Empirically Developed Forecast Model for the Surface Layer Stability Transition Period
Gail-Tirrell Vaucher, Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM |
| 2:30 PM | 3.17 | Using Current-Generation Meteorological/Photochemical Modeling Systems for Real-Time Ozone Forecasting
Christian Hogrefe, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. T. Rao and K. L. Demerjian |
| 2:45 PM | 3.18 | A study of predictive models for forecasting hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Pingili and R. L. Miller |
| 3:00 PM | 3.19 | Analyzing the relationship between solar flux and hurricane strength to forecast hurricane development
Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Inc, A Boeing Company, Springfield, VA; and P. A. Zuzolo, B. J. Zuzolo, and G. N. Greene |
| 3:15 PM | | Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
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