The intrinsic and practical predictability of global weather forecasting is of great interest to all numerical weather prediction centers around the world.  This session will have four invited talks by internationally known predictability experts to speak on what we know about intrinsic predictability, where we currently are in actual predictive skill and what improvements could be made to models, observations and data assimilation to push current practical predictability closer to the theoretical limit. All engaged in these topics are encouraged to submit their research and innovations in these areas as posters.

The economic and environmental impacts of drought in North, Central, and South America and beyond are complex and multi-faceted, and do not adhere to political and programmatic borders. Robust, transboundary coordination that spans drought early warning, response, recovery, and preparedness efforts is therefore critical to insure that drought information is linked to societal applications. In this session, examples of drought science and services partnerships that integrate organizational capacities and perspectives across boundaries are sought from the community. Best practices and lessons learned from such efforts will serve as guideposts for new and continued drought partnerships, with an emphasis on overcoming the challenges of international collaboration.

Antarctica occupies 10% of the Earth’s land area and when combined with sea ice the area doubles from summer to winter. The combination/interaction of topography, ice, surrounding ocean and overlying atmosphere produce a significant role in global climate. Unique ice core records provide important clues about past and recent climates. In fact, Antarctic meteorological and oceanographic science is crucial for understanding how the planet operates as a global system. Antarctica is the continent for science and international cooperation, with significant progress since the cooperation of the International Geophysical Year (IGY, 1957-8). 

The progress has been supported by significant developments in Satellite Meteorology which have improved polar, mid-latitude and tropical meteorology, particularly analysis and forecasting.  Many countries have participated in Antarctic research, including via inter-hemispheric cooperation, one example being the International Antarctic Analysis Centre in Melbourne Australia in the 1960s. Much research and cooperation has also been related to Satellite Meteorology and data assimilation, starting for example in the area of quantitative cloud picture interpretation and finishing for example with hyperspectral sounding. ​ The advances in these area have supported a fuller understanding of the global circulation and Antarctica. 

 

This session will focus on the progress that has been made in Antarctic science since the IGY and on current research and outstanding issues for weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry and oceans surrounding Antarctica. The Session will also focus on progress that has been made in satellite remote sensing since TIROS1 and on current research and outstanding issues for weather, climate, oceans, atmospheric chemistry, space weather and satellite data assimilation. 

The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) is pleased to help support this session under the umbrella of its MOU with the AMS.  

Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions are rapidly filling up the gap between the weather and climate predictions in the operational suites. Tropical-extratropical interactions, sea-ice, soil moisture, stratosphere-troposphere interactions have emerged as untapped sources of predictability on the S2S time scales. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and reforecasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables these sources of predictability to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed. Contributions are solicited on recent advancements in assessing the predictability on S2S time scales, S2S prediction skill and remaining challenges with emphasis of making use of the S2S database, and development of metrics for measuring the success of forecasts in ways that are useful to stakeholder communities.