85th AMS Annual Meeting

: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply

AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Sunday, 9 January 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 9 January 2005


SUN 9 JAN

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Sunday, 9 January 2005


Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-5:40 PM: Sunday, 9 January 2005


Conference Registration

Monday, 10 January 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Mon 10 Jan

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Registration continues through Thursday, 13 January

9:00 AM-9:15 AM: Monday, 10 January 2005


1
Kick-off Speaker (Joint between the Symposium on Living with a Limited Water Supply and the 19th Conference on Hydrology)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf on Hydrology; and the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply )
Organizer: Prof. Malin Falkenmark, SIWI

Papers:
  9:00 AM
1.1
Keynote Speaker
Prof. Malin Falkenmark, SIWI, Stockholm, Sweden

10:15 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

10:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Joint Session 2
Joint Plenary Session with Hydrology Panel Discussion with Malin Falkenmark
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 19th Conf on Hydrology )
Chair: Roy M Rasmussen, NCAR

Papers:
  10:45 AM
PANEL DISCUSSION Abstract
Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Joint Session 4
The Earth Information System for Water Decision Making (JOINT BETWEEN THE LIMITED WATER SUPPLY SYMPOSIUM, THE 19TH CONFERNCE ON HYDROLOGYand IIPS) (parallel with Session 1 and Joint Session 3)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; the 21st International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; and the 19th Conf on Hydrology )
Chair: John Schaake, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Warm season storms, floods, and sediment inputs into the Grand Canyon: Applications to decision making and adaptive management
Shaleen Jain, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Pulwarty, T. Melis, and D. Topping

  1:45 PM
Space-assisted irrigation management: An operational perspective
Anne M. Jochum, ALFAclima Asesoramiento Medioambiental and Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete, Spain; and A. Calera and A. Cuesta

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Joint Session 3
Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting and acceptable uncertainty (Joint between the Limited Water Supply Symposium and the 19th Confernce on Hydrology) (parallel with Session 1 and Joint Session 4)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 19th Conf on Hydrology )
Organizer: Ana P. Barros, Duke University

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  2:00 PM
Calibration of QPF/PQPF forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Zoltan

  2:15 PM
Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from the RSM ensemble forecasts over hydrologic regions
Huiling Yuan, University of California, Irvine, CA; and S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, and S. Sorooshian

Poster PDF (129.0 kB)

2:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Poster Session 1
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological forecasting (poster session)
Sponsor: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply

Papers:
 
National long-range hydrologic prediction system (NLHPS)
John. C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and P. Restrepo

 
Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP Based seasonal volume forecasts
Kevin Werner, National Weather Service, Western Region Scientific Services Division, Salt Lake City, UT


Poster Session 2
The Use of Climate Forecasts for Water Resources Planning and Management (Poster)
Sponsor: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply

Papers:
 
Progress in Operational Integrated Forecast and Management of Northern California Water Resources: Hourly to Seasonal Time Scales
Konstantine P. Georgakakos, Hydrologic Research Center and SIO/Univ. Of California, San Diego, CA; and N. E. Graham, A. P. Georgakakos, H. Yao, E. Shamir, S. V. Taylor, and T. M. Carpenter

 
Analysis of water recycling in CCSM
Zhao Li, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and N. Mölders

 
Advanced hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting for water management decision-makers in Slovenia
Dave A. Matthews, Hydromet DSS, Silverthorne, CO; and M. Brilly, G. Gregoric, J. Polajnar, and P. Houser

http://home.comcast.net/~hydrometdss/HDSSIndex.html

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)
 
A Pilot Program for a Low Flow Impacts Database at the National Weather Service
Cody L. Knutson, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and M. Svoboda and D. R. Kluck

Poster PDF (27.1 kB)

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


1
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological forecasting part II
Sponsor: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply
Chair: Ana P. Barros, Duke University

Papers:
  4:00 PM
1.1
  4:15 PM
1.2
Spatial Scaling of Simulated Streamflow Uncertainty
Theresa M. Carpenter, Hydrologic Research Center and SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and K. P. Georgakakos

  4:30 PM
1.3
Recursive Bayesian Model Combination for Streamflow Forecasting
Newsha K. Ajami, University of California at Irvine (UCI), Irvine, CA; and Q. Duan, H. Moradkhani, and S. Sorooshian

  5:00 PM
1.5
Using NWSRFS ESP for Making Early Outlooks of Seasonal Runoff Volumes into Lake Powell
David G Brandon, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City, Utah

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Sessions End for the day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


FORMAL OPENING OF EXHIBITS WITH RECEPTION (CASH BAR)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2005


Suki Manabe Symposium Banquet

Tuesday, 11 January 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


TUE 11 JAN

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Joint Session 5
The use of climate forecasts for water resources planning and management (Joint between the Limited Water Supply Symposium and the 19th Confernce on Hydrology) (parallel with Session 2)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 19th Conf on Hydrology )
Chair: David Reynolds, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic forecast system for the western U.S.
Andrew W. Wood, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier

  8:45 AM
Effects of climate variability on hydropower production and covariability with energy demand in California and the Pacific Northwest
Alan F. Hamlet, JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Voisin, D. Lettenmaier, and D. W. Pierce

  9:00 AM
Creative Application of Hydro-Climate Predictions for a Drought Management Plan
John F. Henz, HDR Engineering, Inc; Denver, Colorado, Denver, CO; and W. J. Badini

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


2

Papers:
  11:00 AM
2.1
Improving the conveyance of risk to people living and working in areas subject to flooding: Building partnerships to address the national inland flood threat
Douglas C. Marcy, NOAA/NWS at the Coastal Services Center, Charleston, SC; and G. Austin, T. M. Graziano, and M. Kolowith

  11:15 AM
2.2
Impact of climate change on California water users
W. Michael Hanemann, University of California - Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and L. Dale, E. P. Maurer, and N. L. Miller

  11:45 AM
2.4
Bringing agriculture back to water - a solution for the 21st century
Richard T. McNider, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Christy and J. E. Hairston

11:30 AM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Exhibits Open

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Lunch Break

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Exhibits Open

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


3

Papers:
  3:45 PM
3.3
  4:00 PM
3.4
  4:15 PM
3.5
Improved water demand forecasting for water resources managers
Richard W. Stodt, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO; and D. Matthews, S. Hunter, A. C. T. Pinheiro, K. Arsenault, and P. Houser

Poster PDF (484.1 kB)
  4:30 PM
3.6
Goal-oriented water policy – the Shenandoah valley experience
James Giraytys, Certified Consulting Meteorologist, Winchester, VA; and D. L. Bulova, T. J. Christoffel, and J. R. Staelin

  4:45 PM
Climate Change and Water: What Can We Expect?
Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, Oakland, CA

  5:15 PM
Use of ENSO forecasts for optimal irrigation management under drought conditions
Francisco J. Meza, Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Santiago, RM, Chile


Joint Session 6
the water cycle in arid lands (Joint with 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification and AMS Forum on Living with a Limited Water Supply)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification )
Chair: John L. Wilson, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Topographic and Ecosystem Controls on Soil Moisture Distribution in the SMEX04-NAME Transect Study, Northern Sonora, Mexico
Enrique R. Vivoni, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and H. A. Gutierrez, B. Brooks, C. A. Aragon, A. Rinehart, R. Wyckoff, C. J. Watts, J. C. Rodriguez, and T. J. Jackson

  3:45 PM
Seasonal strategies to enhance groundwater recharge in hyper-arid zones
David N. Yates, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Mangoosh, M. AlMalki, and R. T. Bruintjes

  4:00 PM
Refinement of Numerical Modeling and technology of Global and Regional Water Cycle
Hiromasa Ueda, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Yamagata, R. Ohba, H. Sakuma, S. Behera, M. Mujumdar, and A. Chakraborty

http://

  4:15 PM
MM5 Simulations of Precipitation in the El Paso Del Norte
Karina Apodaca, Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris

  4:45 PM
Influence of soil and vegetation on rainfall in coastal desert and mountainous area
Ryohji Ohba, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fukahorimachi, Nagasaki, Japan; and H. Ueda, T. Adachi, T. Hara, R. W. A. Hutjes, H. W. Ter Maat, and B. Bisselink

  5:00 PM
Hydroclimatology of the North American Monsoon Region in Northwest Mexico
David J. Gochis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Brito-Castillo and W. J. Shuttleworth

  5:15 PM
Geostatistical Mapping of Mountain Precipitation Incorporating Auto-searched Effects of Terrain and Climatic Characteristics
Huade Guan, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and J. L. Wilson and O. Makhnin

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2005


Sessions end for the day

Wednesday, 12 January 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


WED 12 JAN

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Joint Session 7
extreme water cycle events: floods and droughts (JOINT BETWEEN THE LIMITED WATER SUPPLY SYMPOSIUM, THE 19TH CONFERNCE ON HYDROLOGY, and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modificaiton) (parallel with Session 3)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; the 19th Conf on Hydrology; and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification )
Chair: Kevin Trenberth, NCAR

Papers:
  9:00 AM
  9:15 AM
Agricultural drought: an index based on transpiration deficit
Vittorio Marletto, ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy; and F. Zinoni and T. Tonelli

9:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Coffee Break

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Presidential Forum

11:30 AM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Exhibits Open

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


4
Extreme water cycle events part II
Sponsor: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply
Chair: John Nielson-Gammon, Texas A&M

Papers:
  1:30 PM
4.1
Variability and extremes of precipitation in the global climate as determined by the 25-year GEWEX/GPCP data set
Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Gu, S. Curtis, G. J. Huffman, D. T. Bolvin, and E. J. Nelkin

  1:45 PM
4.2
Numerical simulation of heavy precipitation in northern Baja California and southern California
Ruth Cerezo-Mota, CICESE = Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico; and T. Cavazos and L. M. Farfan

  2:00 PM
4.3
Minor flooding on the Milk River after an extreme winter in northeast Montana
Julie Adolphson, National Weather Service, Glasgow, MT; and C. Bogel, T. Fransen, G. Forrester, T. Jamba, M. Rawles, T. Salem, D. Secora, B. Temeyer, G. Loss, T. Gurss, and M. Tunnicliff

  2:15 PM
4.4
Diurnal to multi-day convective organizations in the Bay of Bengal during the Indian summer monsoon
Wen-wen Tung, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. M. Hsu and M. W. Moncrieff

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

3:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Exhibits Open

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


5
Extreme Water Cycle Events III
Sponsor: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply
Chair: Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
  4:00 PM
5.1
Understanding the value of high resolution regional climate modeling
James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, L. R. Leung, and B. Kuo

 
5.2
Topographic and meteorological influences on the spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

  4:30 PM
5.3
Extreme rainfall in Texas: patterns and predictability
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, A. M. Odins, and B. Myoung

  4:45 PM
5.4
Development of a “scientifically defensible” design storm for South Boulder Creek
John F. Henz, HDR Engineering, Inc; Denver, Colorado, Denver, CO; and W. J. Badini

  5:00 PM
5.5
Analysis of a Monsoon Flood Event in a Regional Semiarid Watershed
Enrique R. Vivoni, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and R. S. Bowman, R. Wyckoff, R. Jakubowski, and K. Richards

  5:30 PM
Twentieth century drought in the conterminous United States: An application of severity-area-duration analysis
Kostantinos M Andreadis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. A. Clark and D. P. Lettenmaier

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Sessions End for the day

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


Exhibits Open

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2005


AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 13 January 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


THUR 13 JAN

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Joint Session 8
Understanding and predicting the water cycle across scales (Joint between the Limited Water Supply Symposium, the 19th Confernce on Hydrology, and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification) (parallel with Session 5)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; and the 19th Conf on Hydrology )
Chair: Roy Rasmussen, NCAR

Papers:
  8:30 AM
What is causing the decline in coastal rainfall in eastern Australia?
Jozef Syktus, Queensland Centre for Climate Applications, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia

  8:45 AM
Using Model-Assimilated Meteorological Data in Forecasting of Seasonal Runoff Based on Statistical Models for some Aral Sea Sub-catchments
Mariya G. Glazirina, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; and R. Schiemann, J. Gurtz, L. Vasilina, F. Pertziger, S. Dirren, and C. Schär

  9:15 AM

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Joint Poster Session 2
Understanding and Predicting the Water Cycle across scales (poster session)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 19th Conf on Hydrology )

Papers:
 
Upper tropospheric troughs and their interaction with the North American Monsoon
Erik Pytlak, NOAA/NWS, Tucson, AZ; and M. Goering and A. Bennett

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)
 
The NOAA FEWS-NET hazards assessment for the heavy rainfall event in Haiti on May 23-24, 2004
Kevin B. Laws, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and C. V. Schmitt, T. B. Love, and V. B. Kumar

 
GLOBE student observations in support of SMEX04
Martha P. L. Whitaker, University of Arizona; and B. Nijssen, J. C. Washburne, and T. P. A. Ferré

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Joint Session 9
Understanding and predicting the water cycle across scale part II (Joint between the Limited Water Supply Symposium the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification )
Chair: Enrique R. Vivoni, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology

Papers:
  11:00 AM
  11:15 AM
The representation of hydrological processes across spatial scales using the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS)
Matthew Garcia, UMBC/GEST and NASA/GSFC Hydrological Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard

  11:30 AM
  11:45 AM
An End-to-End Hydrometeorological Forecasting System
John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Raleigh, NC; and G. S. Wilson, K. P. Georgakakos, C. D. Peters-Lidard, and M. Matreata

12:00 PM-3:45 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Exhibits Open

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Joint Session 10
Understanding and predicting the water cycle across scales part III (Joint between the Limited Water Supply Symposium and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification)
Sponsors: (Joint between the AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply; and the 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification )
Chair: Fei Chen, NCAR

Papers:
  1:30 PM
The Time-Integrated Random Access NEXRAD Database (TIRAND): description and opportunity
John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Raleigh, NC; and W. T. Smith

  2:00 PM
Precipitation development in convective clouds over the eastern Arabian Penisula
Daniel Breed, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Jensen, R. Bruintjes, S. Piketh, A. Al Mangoosh, and A. Al Mandoos

  2:15 PM
Observed declines in mountain snowpack and changes in snow seasons
Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet, D. Lettenmaier, and M. P. Clark

  2:30 PM
Intercomparison among TRMM, GPCP1DD and Radar-AMeDAS
Kenji Kamiguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Kitoh and M. Hosaka

  2:45 PM
How snowmelt onset varies with elevation
Jessica D. Lundquist, SIO/Univ. of California and USGS, La Jolla, CA

  3:15 PM
Detection and attribution of 20th Century hydrologic variations and change over western North America
Shaleen Jain, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and M. Hoerling

  3:30 PM
Coffee Break

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Coffee Break


Registration Desk Closes

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


6
hydro-meteorological monitoring in sparsely observed regions
Sponsor: AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply
Chair: Ana P. Barros, Duke University

Papers:
  3:30 PM
6.1
  3:45 PM
6.2
Improved "Climate Divisions" for monitoring, assessing, and predicting climate in the U.S.
Klaus Wolter, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and R. Bigley, J. K. Eischeid, and D. Allured

3:45 PM-3:45 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Exhibits Close

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Conference Ends

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


Ed Lorenz Symposium Banquet