Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 5 November 2006
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 6 November 2006
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Friday, 10 November
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, St. Louis AB Session 1A Conference Introduction and Opening Remarks
9:00 AM 1A.1A Welcoming Remarks   Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK 9:05 AM 1A.1 Tribute to James T. Moore   Charles E. Graves, Saint Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO 9:35 AM 1A.2 Keynote Talk: Severe thunderstorms in Europe: An overview of known climatology, warning and forecasting issues   Jenni Teittinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, St. Louis AB Session 1 Regional Climatologies
Chair: Matthew J. Bunkers, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD
10:30 AM 1.1 Tornado and severe weather climatology and predictability by ENSO phase in the North Central U.S.: A compositing study   Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and C. Cogil, G. Lussky, J. Boyne, and R. Ryrholm 10:45 AM 1.2 Synoptic evolution of significant tornado days over Nebraska and Iowa from the spring through mid-summer   Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and P. N. Schumacher 11:00 AM 1.3 Characteristics of cool season severe environments in the Ohio Valley (1995-2006)   Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS, Indianapolis, IN; and C. Omitt and J. L. Guyer 11:15 AM 1.4 A GIS-based analysis of supercell and squall line occurrence across Oklahoma   James E. Hocker, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Basara 11:30 AM 1.5 Statistical analysis of variables associated with convective initiation along the southern Plains dryline   Michael P. Griesinger, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss 11:45 AM 1.6 Filling the gap: Using severe storm climatologies to investigate the predictability and dynamics of precipitation episodes in the warm season   Michael J. Garay, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Fovell and D. W. McCarthy
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, St. Louis AB Session 2 Severe Storm Environments I
Chair: Richard L. Thompson, SPC, Norman, OK
1:30 PM 2.1 The Utility of Aircraft Soundings in Assessing the Near Storm Environment   Eugene S. Brusky, NOAA/NWS, Green Bay, WI; and R. D. Mamrosh 1:45 PM 2.2 Applications of Aircraft Sounding Data in Short-Term Convective Forecasting   Phil Kurimski, NOAA/NWS, Green Bay, WI; and E. S. Brusky 2:00 PM 2.3 Forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems   Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Bardon, K. Virts, and S. J. Weiss 2:15 PM 2.4 Discrimination of mesoscale convective system environments using sounding observations   Ariel E. Cohen, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, S. F. Corfidi, and S. J. Corfidi 2:30 PM 2.5 Determining the Likelihood of Severe Weather Based on Model Output   Stephen Jaye, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 2:45 PM 2.6 Synoptic and mesoscale influences on west Texas dryline development and associated convection   Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and D. M. Schultz
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Monday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 1 Severe Storm Environments
P1.1 Environment characteristics associated with tornado events near closed cold core 500 mb lows   Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and J. M. Davies P1.2 Tornadoes associated with cold-core, closed 500mb lows: The 20 March 2006, northwestern Oklahoma tornadoes   Jeffrey C. Snyder, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. T. Dawson and H. B. Bluestein P1.3 Total Cape, low-level CAPE, and LFC in significant tornado events with relatively high LCL heights   Jonathan M. Davies, Private Meteorologist, Wichita, KS P1.4 West Texas Mesonet observations of wake lows and heat bursts across northwest Texas   Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and S. R. Cobb and G. Skwira P1.5 Toward a better understanding of elevated convection   S.F. Corfidi, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and S. J. Corfidi and D. M. Schultz P1.6 A mechanism for convective initiation in advance of squall lines   Seung-hee Kim, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. G. Fovell and G. L. Mullendore P1.7 A Comparison of Bulk Shear and Cumulative Shear as a Predictor for Convective Mode   Jennifer M. Laflin, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and P. N. Schumacher P1.8 Virtualization   Peter R. Bannon, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA P1.9 The Texas mesolow of 12 June 2003   Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau P1.10 Coherent tropopause disturbances on the periphery of continental anticyclones as triggers for mesoscale convective systems   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart P1.11 The relationship of the Great Plains low level jet to nocturnal MCS development   Matt Kumjian, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Evans and J. L. Guyer P1.12 Severe Weather Threat Discrimination in Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho using Pre-storm Environmental Data   Melissa Hurlbut, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID; and S. S. Parker
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Monday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 2 Climatologies and Verification
P2.1 A closer look at verification statistics for two tornado outbreaks in 2006   John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and D. McCarthy and H. E. Brooks P2.2 A Look at the Tornado Report and Watch Climatology for the Continental United States from 1986-2005   Andrew R. Dean, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. A. Imy P2.3 Development of a comprehensive severe weather forecast verification system at the Storm Prediction Center   Andrew R. Dean, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS & NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. S. Schneider and J. T. Schaefer P2.4 An analysis of thunderstorm hail fall patterns in the Severe Hail Verification Experiment   Kiel L. Ortega, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith and K. A. Scharfenberg P2.5 PAPER WITHDRAWN   P2.6 SVRGIS: Geographic Information System (GIS) Graphical Database of Tornado, Large Hail, and Damaging Wind Reports in the United States (1950-2005)   Bryan T. Smith, Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN P2.7 A techinque for developing the ratio of supercell to non-supercell thunderstorms   Brian L. Barjenbruch, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston P2.8 Severe weather reports as a function of convective system morphology   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and N. Snook and E. V. Johnson
	4:30 PM-6:00 PM, Monday, St. Louis AB Session 3 Severe Storm Environments II
Chair: James LaDue, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK
4:30 PM 3.1 Observations of Low Level Thermodynamic and Wind Shear Profiles on Significant Tornado Days   Daniel J. Miller, NOAA/NWS, Duluth, MN 4:45 PM 3.2 Tornado failure modes in central and southern Great Plains severe thunderstorm episodes   Richard L. Thompson, SPC, Norman, OK; and C. M. Mead 5:00 PM 3.3 Analysis of WRF and MM5 mesoscale model forecasts to distinguish tornado outbreaks from primarily nontornadic severe weather outbreaks   Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. E. Mercer, M. B. Richman, L. M. Leslie, and C. A. Doswell 5:15 PM 3.4 The interaction of gravity waves with tornadoes and mesocyclones: theories and observations   Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp 5:30 PM 3.5 Analysis of estimated environments for 2004 and 2005 severe convective storm reports   Russell S. Schneider, NOAA/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean, S. J. Weiss, and P. D. Bothwell 5:45 PM 3.6 A potentially valuable WSR-88D severe storm pre-cursor signature in highly dynamic, low CAPE, high shear environments   Llyle J. Barker III, NOAA/NWS, Lincoln, IL
	6:00 PM, Monday Sessions End for the Day
Tuesday, 7 November 2006
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday, St. Louis AB Session 4 Cool Season Severe Storms
Chair: John P. Monteverdi, San Francisco State Univ., San Francisco, CA
8:30 AM 4.1 The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks   Ashton Robinson Cook, NOAA/NWS SPC, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer 8:45 AM 4.2 Cool season significant (F2-F5) tornadoes in the Gulf Coast states   Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and A. K. Kis, K. N. Venable, and D. A. Imy 9:00 AM 4.3 RUC Soundings with Cool Season Tornadoes in "Small" CAPE Settings and the 6 November 2005 Evansville, Indiana Tornado   Jonathan M. Davies, Private Meteorologist, Wichita, KS 9:15 AM 4.4 Analysis of a cold-season bow echo: kinematic and precipitation structure during the late mature phase   Calvin Elkins, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp, B. J. Barbre', and C. Hain 9:30 AM 4.5 Observations of a non-supercell tornadic thunderstorm from a Terminal Doppler Weather Radar   Justin D. Lane, NOAA/NWSFO, Greer, SC; and P. D. Moore 9:45 AM 4.6 A case example of the role of warm-sector convection in the development of mesoscale banded snowfall: 2003 November 22-24   Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and C. E. Graves
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, St. Louis AB Session 5 Climatology and Verification
Chair: Brian A. Klimowski, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ
10:30 AM 5.1 Analysis of Tornado Outbreaks Using Principal Components   Andrew E. Mercer, Cooperative Institude of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK; and C. M. Shafer, C. A. Doswell, M. B. Richman, and L. M. Leslie 10:45 AM 5.2 Telescoping model approaches to evaluate severe convective storms under future climates   Robert J. Trapp, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and B. A. Halvorson and N. S. Diffenbaugh 11:00 AM 5.3 The Severe Hail Verification Experiment   Travis M. Smith, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, K. A. Scharfenberg, K. L. Manross, and A. Witt 11:15 AM 5.4 PDS watches: how dangerous are these "particularly dangerous situations?"   Andrew R. Dean, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS & NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer 11:30 AM 5.5 Implementing the new Enhanced Fujita scale within the NWS   James LaDue, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. A. Mahoney 11:45 AM 5.6 What Are We Doing with (or to) the F-Scale?   Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer and R. Edwards
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, St. Louis AB Session 6 James T. moore Memorial Session on Bow Echo and Derecho Producing Storms
Chair: Ron W. Przybilinski, NOAA/NWS, Saint Charles, MO
1:30 PM 6.1 Observations and quantification of low-level mesovortex evolution within the 4 July 2004 southwest Missouri high wind event   Angela Lese, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY 1:45 PM 6.2 Real-data and idealized simulations of the 4 July 2004 bow echo event   Kent H. Knopfmeier, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and D. M. Wheatley 2:00 PM 6.3 Investigation of derecho storms in Oklahoma and the causes of highest surface wind speeds   Elizabeth M. Stoppkotte, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. D. Long 2:15 PM 6.4 The Influence of Low-Level Stable Layers on Damaging Surface Winds within Bow Echoes   Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and J. J. Cunningham 2:30 PM 6.5 Idealized simulations of nocturnal severe wind-producing convective systems   Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 2:45 PM 6.6 The June 8, 2005 tornadic bow echo in South Dakota   Ken Harding, NOAA/NWS, Aberdeen, SD; and C. Behnke, T. Kleffman, and R. Knutsvig
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 3 Cool Season Severe Storms
P3.1 The relationship of cool season significant tornado events and buoy data in the western Gulf of Mexico   Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and J. L. Guyer P3.2 Environmental and Synoptic Conditions Associated with Cool Season Strong and Violent Tornadoes in the North Central United States   Mark F. Britt, NOAA/NWSFO, St. Charles, MO; and F. H. Glass P3.3 Analysis of several modern thundersnow proximity soundings   Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and G. Darkow, N. A. Stuart, S. Rochette, and A. R. Lupo P3.4 A cool season severe weather episode in northern Arizona   David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ P3.5 A cold season bow echo in a high shear, low CAPE environment: synoptic-scale environment and mesoscale evolution   Christopher R. Hain, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp, R. E. Barbre, C. Elkins, T. A. Coleman, and T. A. Martin P3.6 Single Doppler radar observations of an intense bowing phase of a cold season bow echo in a high shear, low CAPE environment   Robert E. Barbre Jr., Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. R. Hain, T. A. Martin, T. A. Coleman, C. Elkins, and K. R. Knupp
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 4 Bow Echoes and Derecho Producing Systems, BAMEX
P4.1 Severe Weather during the Lifetimes of MCSs that Affect a Limited Area of the Great Plains during the Morning Hours   Therese E. Thompson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. E. Hane, D. L. Andra, and F. H. Carr P4.2 PAPER WITHDRAWN   P4.3 Evolution and maintenance of the 22-23 June 2003 nocturnal convection during BAMEX   Jerilyn M. Billings, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker P4.4 On the Genesis and Strength of Mesovortices Formed within Bow Echoes   Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT P4.5 The relative importance of lower-level and upper-level shear on the intensity of squall lines   George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Weisman P4.6 The relative importance of lower-level and upper-level shear on the lifting of environmental air by gravity currents   George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO P4.7 A Preliminary Assessment of the Environmental and Radar Characteristics of Tornadic and Non-tornadic Mesovortices Associated with QLCSs   Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 5 Forecast Tools
P5.1 Alternative approaches to current nowcasting schemes   Steven A. Lack, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and G. L. Limpert and N. I. Fox P5.2 Overview of the 2005 and Spring 2006 WDSS-II Demonstration at WFO St. Louis   Douglas E. Tilly, Saint Louis Univ., Saint Louis, MO; and R. W. Przybylinski and T. M. Smith P5.3 The utility of three-dimensional radar displays in severe weather warning operations   Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE P5.4 Application of Climate Statistics and Ensemble Forecasts in the Prediction of Severe Weather Episodes   David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. H. Grumm P5.5 WSR-88D Manifestations of the "Owl Horn" Signature   Matthew R. Kramar, NOAA/NWSFO, Amarillo, TX
	4:30 PM-6:00 PM, Tuesday, St. Louis AB Session 7 BAMEX Events and Results
Chair: Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK
4:30 PM 7.1 Dropsonde derived structure of Mesoscale Convective Systems observed during BAMEX   Jimmy Correia, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and R. Arritt 4:45 PM 7.2 The role of gravity waves in producing strong winds in bow echoes   Kevin R. Knupp, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. Phillips 5:00 PM 7.3 Composite bow echo observed during BAMEX   D. A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Bryan, M. Weisman, S. Trier, C. Davis, and D. Dowell 5:15 PM 7.4 Two derecho events and MCS interactions during BAMEX   Nicholas D. Metz, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 5:30 PM 7.5 Mechanisms for the production of severe surface winds in a simulation of an elevated convective system   George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Weisman 5:45 PM 7.6 Influence of BAMEX mesoscale convective vortices on secondary deep convection   S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis
	6:00 PM, Tuesday Sessions End for the Day
	8:00 PM, Tuesday Storm Video and Slide Show Night I
Organizers: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; James LaDue, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ
Wednesday, 8 November 2006
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, St. Louis AB Session 8 Forecast Tools
Chair: David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ
8:30 AM 8.1 An evaluation of TAMDAR soundings in severe storm forecasting   Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, B. D. Jamison, T. L. Smith, T. W. Schlatter, S. G. Benjamin, and W. R. Moninger 8:45 AM 8.2 Evaluating the benefits of TAMDAR data in convective forecasting   Cyrena-Marie Druse, AirDat LLC., Evergreen, CO 9:00 AM 8.3 Status on the integration of the NSSL Four-dimensional Stormcell Investigator (FSI) into AWIPS   Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and M. T. Filiaggi, M. A. Magsig, K. D. Hondl, S. B. Smith, R. Toomey, and C. Kerr 9:15 AM 8.4 Using ensemble probability forecasts and high resolution models to identify severe weather threats   Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA; and R. H. Grumm 9:30 AM 8.5 Complementary Use of Short-Range Ensemble and 4.5 km WRF-NMM Model Guidance for Severe Weather Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center   Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. R. Bright, J. S. Kain, J. J. Levit, M. Pyle, Z. Janjic, B. S. Ferrier, and J. Du 9:45 AM 8.6 An Observational Assessment of Off-Hodograph Deviations for use in Operational Supercell Motion Forecasting Methods   Matthew J. Bunkers, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, St. Louis AB Session 9 Severe Local Storms Outside the United States I
Chair: Leslie R. Lemon, Basic Commerce & Industries, Inc., Independence, MO
10:30 AM 9.1 The Birmingham, U.K. Tornado: 28 July 2005   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX; and S. Robinson 10:45 AM 9.2 Proximity soundings from reanalysis data for Europe   Harold Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Snider, N. Dotzek, and P. Groenemeijer 11:00 AM 9.3 A climatology of tornadoes in Finland   Jenni Teittinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and H. E. Brooks 11:15 AM 9.4 Mesocyclones in Romania – characteristics and environments   Aurora Stan-Sion, National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania; and B. Antonescu 11:30 AM 9.5 The 24 May 2005 multiple-vortex tornado in southeastern Brazil   Ernani L. Nascimento, Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR, Curitiba, PR, Brazil; and I. P. V. O. Marcelino   9.6 PAPER WITHDRAWN
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, St. Louis AB Session 10 Severe Local Storms Outside the United States II
Chair: Harold E. Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
1:30 PM 10.1 The severe thunderstorm forecast and warning process in Australia   Harald Richter, Bureau of Meteorology Training Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 1:45 PM 10.2 Tornadic Mini-Supercells in Northern Canada   Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and S. Massey and D. Patrick 2:00 PM 10.3 Forecasting tornado potential in Alberta using environmental sounding data   Max Dupilka, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and G. W. Reuter 2:15 PM 10.4 Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a severe convective storm process with tornado   Shaowen Shou, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Zhang and Y. Shou 2:30 PM 10.5 A synthetic analysis of mesoscale precipitation system In northeastern China based on sattellite and radar data   Yixuan Shou, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China; and J. Xu and S. Shou   10.6 PAPER WITHDRAWN
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 6 Severe Local Storms Outside the United States
P6.1 Analysis of a tornadic mini-supercell in Finland by using Doppler radar   Jenni Teittinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and J. G. LaDue, H. Hohti, and R. A. Brown P6.2 Supercells of the Serranías del Burro (Mexico)   Roger Edwards, SPC/NWS/NOAA, Norman, OK P6.3 A climatology of large hail in Finland   Jari-Petteri Tuovinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and J. Teittinen, A. J. Punkka, and H. Hohti P6.4 Severe thunderstorm forecasting program in Finland   Ari-Juhani Punkka, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and J. Teittinen
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 7 Preparedness and Sociological Issues
Chair: Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
P7.1 Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the U.S   Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL P7.2 Fatalities associated with non-convective high wind events in the United States   Alan W. Black, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and W. S. Ashley
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 8 Tropical and Nonmesocyclone Tornadoes, Lightning, Pulse and Multicell Storms
P8.1 moved. New paper number 12.6A.   P8.2 Archetypes for surface baroclinic boundaries influencing tropical cyclone tornado occurrence   Roger Edwards, SPC/NWS/NOAA, Norman, OK; and A. E. Pietrycha P8.3 Electrical behavior of downburst-producing convective storms over the High Plains   Kenneth L. Pryor, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD P8.4 Misocyclone Detection and Observations using the WSR-88D: Operational Implications for the Warning Meteorologist   Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NWS, Goodland, KS; and K. L. Manross and E. Nelson P8.5 Lightning climatology for the State of Colorado   Stephen Hodanish, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO; and P. Wolyn P8.6 Cloud-to-ground lightning characteristics of derecho-producing convective systems in the central and southern Great Plains   Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and W. S. Ashley P8.7 The Denver Cyclone and tornadoes 25 years later: the continued challenge of predicting non-supercell tornadoes   Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and D. Barjenbruch, R. Glancy, and R. Kleyla
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 9 Finescale Observations & Radar
P9.1 Tornado identification using a neuro-fuzzy approach to integrate shear and spectral signatures   Yadong Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. -. Y. Yu, M. Yeary, A. M. Shapiro, S. Nemati, M. Foster, and D. L. Andra P9.2 Hail spike impacts on Doppler radial velocity data during several recent Lower Ohio Valley convective events   Chris Smallcomb, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY P9.3 Progress toward improved Ground-Based Velocity Track Display (GBVTD) analysis of high-resolution radar data collected in tornadoes   Robin L. Tanamachi, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, M. Bell, and W. C. Lee P9.4 Observations of tornadogenesis from high-resolution reflectivity data using a W-band mobile radar: The Cordell storm of 5 May 2001   Jana B. Houser, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, C. C. Weiss, M. R. Kramar, J. D. Tuttle, and A. Pazmany P9.5 Multiple-Doppler observations of a nontornadic supercell on 23 May 2002 using ground-based mobile radars   Jeffrey Frame, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, and J. Wurman P9.6 Reconstruction of wind profiles in dust devils: analyses of W-band mobile radar data using the Ground-Based Velocity Track Display (GBVTD) technique   Jeffrey C. Snyder, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. L. Tanamachi, H. B. Bluestein, W. C. Lee, M. M. Bell, and A. L. Pazmany P9.7 In-situ Photogrammetric Analysis of the June 11, 2004 Tornado near Storm Lake, Iowa   Timothy M. Samaras, Applied Research Associates, Inc., Littleton, CO; and C. Young P9.8 Fine-scale Mobile Mesonet and Stick-net observations of a non-tornadic HP supercell near Scottsbluff, NE   Jaret W. Rogers, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss P9.9 On-line archive of storm penetrating data   Matthew Beals, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and D. Kliche, A. Detwiler, and S. Williams P9.10 Interpretation of simulated WSR-88D Doppler velocity signatures of tornadoes associated with nonuniform reflectivities   Rodger A. Brown, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and V. T. Wood and D. Dowell P9.11 Mobile radar based climatology of tornado structure and ROTATE operations   Curtis R. Alexander, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman P9.12 Roger Jensen (1933-2001): Storm Photographer   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX; and D. Hoadley P9.13 A detailed radar analysis of an extremely long-tracked supercell on 12 March 2006   Jason T. Martinelli, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE
	4:30 PM-6:00 PM, Wednesday, St. Louis AB Session 11 Preparedness and Sociological Issues
Chair: Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
4:30 PM 11.1 The Designated Weather Watcher – The Key to Public Preparedness   Aimee Devaris, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. McCarthy 4:45 PM 11.2 A cyclone at the Cyclone game on Nov. 12 2005 -- a near-miss worst case scenario   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA 5:00 PM 11.3 Non-meteorological constraints that affect convective weather forecasting   Sarah J. Corfidi, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and S. F. Corfidi 5:15 PM 11.4 Major land-falling hurricanes as mesoscale convective systems: A paradigm shift for WFO operations   David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt, B. C. Hagemeyer, and D. L. Jacobs 5:30 PM 11.5 Lead time and time under tornado warnings: 1986 - 2004   Somer A. Erickson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. Brooks 5:45 PM 11.6 NOAA/National Weather Services' storm-based warnings   John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and J. M. Looney and K. R. Waters
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Sessions End for the Day
	7:30 PM, Wednesday Banquet Event at Top of the Met (included in full-week registration)
Thursday, 9 November 2006
	8:30 AM-10:15 AM, Thursday, St. Louis AB Session 12 Tropical and Nonmesocyclone Tornadoes, Lightning, Pulse and Multicell
Chair: Stephen J. Hodanish, NOAA/NWSFO, Pueblo, CO
8:30 AM 12.1 Preliminary evaluation of a parameter to forecast environments conducive to non-mesocyclone tornadogenesis   Dan A. Baumgardt, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI; and K. Cook 8:45 AM 12.2 A Mesoscale and Storm-Scale Analysis of the Rapid Mini-Supercell Formation and Tornadogenesis Associated With A Remnant Tropical System   Mark Bacon, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, NC; and S. Pfaff 9:00 AM 12.3 Kinematics, microphysics, and lightning during STEPS: A summary of results   Sarah A. Tessendorf, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge 9:15 AM 12.4 Anomolous lightning behaviour in Northern Plains tornadic supercells   Michael McDonald, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and P. J. McCarthy and D. Patrick 9:30 AM 12.5 Use of high-resolution WRF simulations to forecast lightning threat   Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL; and K. M. LaCasse, S. J. Goodman, and D. Cecil   12.6 PAPER WITHDRAWN   9:45 AM 12.6A Hurricane and tropical cyclone tornado environments from RUC proximity soundings (Formerly P8.1)   Jonathan M. Davies, Private Meteorologist, Wichita, KS
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Thursday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, St. Louis AB Session 13 Tornado Vortex Dynamics and Genesis
Chair: Paul M. Markowski, Penn State University, University Park, PA
10:30 AM 13.1 Using a low-order model to detect and characterize tornadoes in multiple-Doppler radar data   Corey K. Potvin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. M. Shapiro, T. Y. Yu, and M. Xue 10:45 AM 13.2 The Role of Hook Echo Microbursts in Simulated Tornadic Supercells. Part I Association with counter-rotating vortices and tornadogenesis   Leigh Orf, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and M. S. Gilmore, R. B. Wilhelmson, J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen 11:00 AM 13.3 The Role of Hook Echo Microbursts in Simulated Tornadic Supercells. Part II: Sensitivity to Microphysics Parameterization   Matthew S. Gilmore, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and L. Orf, R. B. Wilhelmson, J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen 11:15 AM 13.4 Precipitation-independent supercell tornadogenesis   Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Parker 11:30 AM 13.5 On the limits to near-surface intensification of tornado vortices   D. C. Lewellen, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV; and W. S. Lewellen 11:45 AM 13.6 A conceptual dual-polarization framework for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell   Glen S. Romine, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. W. Burgess and R. B. Wilhelmson
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, St. Louis AB Session 14 Finescale Observations I: Multiplatform
Chair: Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NWS, Goodland, KS
1:30 PM 14.1 Comparison of storm evolution characteristics: The NWRT and WSR-88D   Pamela L. Heinselman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. L. Priegnitz, K. L. Manross, and R. Adams 1:45 PM 14.2 Visual Characteristics of Severe Storms   Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Norman, OK; and J. LaDue and M. Yuan 2:00 PM 14.3 Dynamic Measurements of the Lowest 10 meters of Tornadoes   Timothy M. Samaras, Applied Research Associates, Inc., Littleton, CO 2:15 PM 14.4 Some potentially interesting differences in the midlevel kinematic characteristics of a nontornadic and tornadic supercell observed by ELDORA during VORTEX   Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA 2:30 PM 14.5 Surface analysis of the rear-flank downdraft in two tornadic supercells   Brian D. Hirth, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder and C. C. Weiss 2:45 PM 14.6 Moved. New Paper Number P11.6.   2:46 PM 14.6A The 15 May 2003 Shamrock, Texas, supercell: A dual-Doppler analysis and EnKF data-assimilation experiment (Formerly Paper 15.8)   Michael M. French, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, M. R. Kramar, and A. L. Pazmany
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Thursday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 10 Tornado Votex Dynamics and Genesis
P10.1 An Analytical Model of One- and Two-Celled Vortices: Preliminary Testing   Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. W. White, C. R. Alexander, and R. L. Tanamachi P10.2 Global properties of a simple axisymmetric simulation of tornadogenesis   Robert Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK P10.3 Effects of fine-scale debris on different tornado corner flows   Baiyun Gong, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV; and D. C. Lewellen and W. S. Lewellen P10.4 The Existence of Descending Reflectivity Cores in Rear-Flank Appendages of Supercells   Aaron D. Kennedy, School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. M. Straka and E. N. Rasmussen
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 11 Numerical Simulations
P11.1 The sensitivity of convective initiation to the lapse rate of the active cloud-bearing layer   Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and D. Niyogi P11.2 Numerical simulation of a severe squall event in Hong Kong   K.C. Szeto, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and P. W. Chan P11.3 Numerical Simulation of the 24 April, 2002 storm merger between a left moving storm and supercell   Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. W. Przybylinski and R. B. Wilhelmson P11.4 Numerical modeling of cell interaction   Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson and B. D. Lee P11.5 Hail embryo differences between simulated High Plains and Oklahoma storms   Lee M. Cronce, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. S. Gilmore, R. B. Wilhelmson, and J. M. Straka P11.6 The role of environmental and computational parameters in the development and impact of the forward-flank gust front in supercell thunderstorms   Jeffrey Beck, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Pre-Convene Space Poster Session 12 Case Studies
P12.1 Observations of a mesoscale convective vortex, downbursts, and small-scale vortices associated with a heatburst event   Kevin R. Knupp, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. Phillips P12.2 An analysis of the 7 July 2004 Rockwell Pass, CA tornado: Highest elevation tornado documented in the US   John P. Monteverdi, San Francisco State Univ., San Francisco, CA; and R. Edwards, G. J. Stumpf, and D. Gudgel P12.3 An Analysis of the 22 May 2004 Furnas County, Nebraska Tornadic Supercell   John P. Monteverdi, San Francisco State Univ., San Francisco, CA; and K. Saussy, A. Cross, C. Meherin, C. Medjber, and S. Lau P12.4 Early cell evolution and resultant isolation of two long-lived supercells during the 12 March 2006 Tornado Outbreak   Bruce D. Lee, WindLogics Inc., Grand Rapids, MN; and C. A. Finley P12.5 Tornadic outbreak of April 20th 2004 with low CAPE   Aaron Naeger, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and P. S. Market P12.6 Multiple modes of convection in moderate-to-high shear environments   Adam J. French, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker P12.7 Mesocyclone and RFD induced damaging winds observed in the 27 May 2004 southwest Ohio supercell   John T. DiStefano, NOAA/NWSFO, Wilmington, OH P12.8 Low-topped supercell evolution in association with a mesoscale convective vortex across northern Illinois, August 24th, 2004   Nathan Marsili, NOAA/NWS, Romeoville, IL; and W. H. Wilson P12.9 The Thanksgiving 2004 Severe Weather Event across Upstate New York and New England   Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and K. D. LaPenta
	4:30 PM-6:30 PM, Thursday, St. Louis AB Session 15 Finescale Observations II: Mobile Radars
Chair: Pamela L. Heinselman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
4:30 PM Paper 15.8 moved. New paper number 14.6A   4:45 PM 15.1 The maintenance of tornadoes observed with high-resolution mobile radars   James N. Marquis, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, P. M. Markowski, J. M. Wurman, and D. C. Dowell 5:00 PM 15.2 A dual-Doppler analysis of a nontornadic supercell observed on 12 June 2004 using ground-based doppler radars   Mario Majcen, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, Y. Richardson, and J. Wurman 5:15 PM 15.3 High-resolution structure of tornadoes in south-central Kansas on 12 May 2004: Analysis of mobile Doppler radar data   Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. C. Weiss, M. M. French, E. M. Holthaus, R. L. Tanamachi, S. Frasier, and A. L. Pazmany 5:30 PM 15.4 Rapid-Scan 3D observations of a tornado   Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and P. Robinson 5:45 PM 15.5 Mobile radar based climatology of tornado structure and dynamics   Curtis R. Alexander, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman 6:00 PM 15.6 Quantifying near-surface winds in tornadoes: A combined DOW-LES approach   Karen A. Kosiba, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp 6:15 PM 15.7 Radar reflectivity "blobs" observed by the Doppler on Wheels   Zachary M. Byko, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, and J. Wurman
	6:30 PM, Thursday Sessions End for the Day
	8:00 PM, Thursday Storm Video and Slide Show Night II
Organizers: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; James LaDue, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ
Friday, 10 November 2006
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, St. Louis AB Session 16 Numerical Simulations I: Supercells and Tornadoes
Chair: Sarah A. Tessendorf, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
8:30 AM 16.1 High resolution simulations of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak: impact of microphysics on cold pool intensity and storm morphology   Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and G. Zhang 8:45 AM 16.2 Numerical Study of a Tornado-Like Vortex in a Supercell Storm   Jorge Ruben Santos, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. K. Yau 9:00 AM 16.3 The influence of eight basic environmental parameters on the low-level rotation characteristics of simulated convective storms   Cody Kirkpatrick, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul and C. Cohen 9:15 AM 16.4 Sensitivity of tornadogenesis in very-high-resolution numerical simulations to variations in model microphysical parameters   Nathan Snook, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 9:30 AM 16.5 Numerical simulation of tornadogenesis in a supercell storm   Ken-ichi Shimose, Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka, Japan; and T. Kawano 9:45 AM 16.6 Simulations of a supercell thunderstorm with radiative transfer, surface physics, and a soil model   Jeffrey Frame, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. Markowski
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Friday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, St. Louis AB Session 17 Numerical Simulations II: Multicells and MCSs
Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 17.1 The sensitivity of numerically simulated multicell convection to grid spacing and computational mixing coefficients   Benjamin C. Baranowski, North Carolina State University, Rleigh, NC; and C. A. Doswell, D. Weber, and A. M. Loftus 10:45 AM 17.2 Parameterized mesoscale forcing mechanisms for initiating numerically-simulated isolated multicellular convection   Adrian M. Loftus, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Doswell, D. Weber, and B. C. Baranowski 11:00 AM 17.3 Sensitivity of MCS development to the initial convective arrangement   Israel L. Jirak, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton 11:15 AM 17.4 Numerical simulation of quasi-linear convective systems in heterogeneous mesoscale environments   Dustan M. Wheatley, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp 11:30 AM 17.5 High Resolution Numerical Simulations of Midwestern Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems   Robert W. Pasken, Saint Louis Univ., Saint Louis, MO; and J. T. Martinelli 11:45 AM 17.6 A Statistical Approach to the Kain-Fritsch Convective parameterization   Yong Song, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. K. Wikle and C. J. Anderson
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Friday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Friday, St. Louis AB Session 18 Case Studies I
Chair: Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA
1:30 PM 18.1 The Tri-State Tornado of 18 March 1925, Part I: Re-examination of the damage path   Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. H. Johns, C. A. Doswell, J. Hart, M. S. Gilmore, and S. F. Piltz 1:45 PM 18.2 The Tri-State Tornado of 18 March 1925. Part II: Re-examination of the weather conditions supporting the parent storm   Robert A. Maddox, Consultant, Tucson, AZ; and M. S. Gilmore, C. Crisp, J. A. Hart, C. A. Doswell, and D. W. Burgess 2:00 PM 18.3 Evolution of the mesoscale environment prior to the 12 March 2006 Missouri Ozarks tornado outbreak   Gino Izzi, NOAA/NWSFO, Springfield, MO; and J. P. Gagan 2:15 PM 18.4 An elevated supercell with damaging wind reports from the morning of 12 March 2006   Stephen M. Goss, SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and E. M. Bookbinder 2:30 PM 18.5 A case study of a long-lived supercell in the 12 March 2006 severe weather outbreak   George L. Limpert, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. J. Schultz, E. R. Sutton, C. C. Heck, and N. I. Fox 2:45 PM 18.6 The Role of a Squall-line and Boundary Interaction in the Development of the Long-lived 21-22 July 2003 Tornadic Supercell across Eastern New York and Western New England   Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and K. D. LaPenta
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Friday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Friday, St. Louis AB Session 19 Case Studies II
Chair: Matthew S. Gilmore, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL
3:30 PM 19.1 Analysis of the 2 April 2006 Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) over the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region: Storm Structure and Evolution from WSR-88D data   Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWSFO, Saint Charles, MO; and J. E. Sieveking, G. K. Schmocker, and N. T. Atkins 3:45 PM 19.2 Storm mode evolution from a quasi-linear convective system to a discrete tornadic supercell during the historic Wisconsin tornado outbreak of 18 August 2005: a radar perspective   Seth Binau, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI; and D. A. Baumgardt 4:00 PM 19.3 An Overview of the May 10, 2003 Tornado Outbreak   Fred H. Glass, NOAA/NWSFO, St. Charles, MO 4:15 PM 19.4 Sampling Issues Associated with the Evansville Tornado and other nearby Supercells on the Early Morning of 6 November 2005: Challenges to Operational Forecasters   Patrick J. Spoden, NOAA/NWSFO, West Paducah, KY; and R. Przybylinski, C. Wielgos, and R. Shanklin 4:30 PM 19.5 The Wrentham Tornado of 2004: Evolution of a Tornadic HP Supercell from a Pronounced Splitting Bow Echo in the WFO Taunton, MA County Warning Area   David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWS, Taunton, MA; and F. M. Nocera 4:45 PM 19.6 An Examination of the Mesoscale Environment of the James Island Memorial Day Tornado   Steven B. Taylor, NOAA/NWS, Charleston, SC
	5:00 PM, Friday 23rd Conference on Severe Local Storms Concludes

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