14th Presidential Forum

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Monday, 3 February 2014

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
14th Presidential Forum: Extreme Weather, Climate, and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Moderator: Margaret Davidson, NOAA/Office for Coastal Management
Panelists: Leslie Chapman-Henderson, Federal Alliance for Safe Homes; David Perkes, Mississippi State Univ.; Ellis Stanley, Hammerman & Gainer International, Inc.; David W. Titley, Penn State University; Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy
Speaker: Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University
  9:00 AM
Welcoming Remarks

  9:05 AM
PL1.1
The New Communication Climate - An exploration of tools and traits that give the best chance of success in facing a fast-forward media landscape and changing climate
Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University, New York, NY
  9:25 AM
Panel Discussion

  10:25 AM
Concluding Remarks

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Part I)
Location: Room C101 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 14th Presidential Forum )
Chair: Xuebin Zhang, EC
  11:00 AM
TJ1.1
Observed Climate Changes: An overview of recent assessments
Peter W. Thorne, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
  11:30 AM
TJ1.2
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
John C. Fyfe, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada; and N. P. Gillett and F. W. Zwiers

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 2
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Part II)
Location: Room C101 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 14th Presidential Forum )
Chair: Xuebin Zhang, EC
  1:30 PM
TJ2.1
Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the IPCC AR5 and 3rd US National Climate Assessment
Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and J. Arblaster, V. kharin, J. sillman, and K. E. Kunkel

Tuesday, 4 February 2014

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
1
International Panel Discussion - Climate Services to Support Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Building Resilience to Weather Extremes in a Changing Climate
Location: Room C107 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the 14th Presidential Forum; and the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Moderators: Maryam Golnaraghi, WMO; John Jones Jr., J. E. Jones Consulting
Panelists: Rowan Douglas, Willis Research Network; Ghassem R. Asrar, Joint Global Change Research Institute/PNNL; Jiao Meiyan, Chinese Meteorological Administration; Adama Daillo, African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Gordon Mcbean, Univ. of Western Ontario/President-Elect ICSU
Speaker: Xu Tang, WMO

Everyday news from many corners of the world point to more loss of life and significant direct and indirect economic losses caused by the disasters related to weather-, water- and climate-related hazards. Building resilience to disasters and protecting critical infrastructure (e.g., transportation, health, water management, energy, agriculture and food security, etc) are at the core of priorities of international cooperation in disaster risk reduction, facilitated through the adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) by 168 countries at the second World Conference on Disaster Reduction (2005, Kobe, Japan). HFA has resulted in a paradigm shift from post disaster response to a comprehensive approach that would also include prevention and preparedness measures. HFA has facilitated unprecedented international cooperation among international development, humanitarian and scientific and technical agencies to assist Member States with a coordinated approach to build resilience to disasters. Furthermore, under the UNFCCC international agreements and related Damage and Loss Programme as well as the Global Framework for Climate Services, critical developments are underway to facilitate provision of science-based climate services to support risk-informed decision-making. Effective inter- and intra-sectoral risk reduction measures should be -informed, be underpinned by clear and consistent policies, legislation and legal frameworks at all levels of government and leverage partnerships (public and private). This workshop will explore opportunities of the weather and climate services to support risk analysis and provide fundamental information as input to policy development and risk-based decision-making tools, used by practitioners to reduce impacts and develop resilience of built environment to extreme events.
  3:30 PM
The Role of Climate Science in Decision Support: Ghassem R. Asrar
  3:45 PM
Risk Reduction and Building Resilience: Xu Tang
  4:00 PM
CMA Experience in Climate Service to Support Risk Management: Jiao Meiyan

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: Room C106 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L1.1
Towards a general theory of global monsoons (Invited Presentation)
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Thursday, 6 February 2014

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


2
The President's Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy
Location: Georgia Ballroom 2 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; and the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013 )
Moderator: William Hooke, AMS
Panelists: Holly Bamford, NOS; Tamara Dickinson, OSTP; Josh Sawislak, HUD; H. Michael Goodman, NASA/MSFC; Kevin Werner, NOAA

On December 7, 2012, President Obama issued an Executive Order forming the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, directed to coordinate recovery efforts across the federal government as well as with state, local, and tribal governments. The Task Force developed the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy to address current and future vulnerabilities and provide long-term risk management strategies. Scientists from several federal science agencies and departments - including the NOAA, NASA, USGS, DHS – contributed to the Task Force with a focus on science and technology (S&T) through the Task Force Science Coordination Group. In addition, the White House National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR) also mobilized a post-Sandy effort to determine lessons learned from Superstorm Sandy and identify new opportunities where the federal government's S&T resources could be utilized for future disaster events. The SDR produced a series of recommendations for the Science Coordination Group, with a particular focus on geospatial and remote sensing data for natural hazards. The panel includes invited speakers from the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, the Task Force Science Coordination Group, and the White House NSTC SDR. The panelists will discuss the recommendations for better utilizing federal S&T resources as well as the strategies developed to reduce current and future vulnerabilities to natural hazards.
  8:30 AM
TJPD2.1
  8:45 AM
TJPD2.2

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Themed Joint Poster Session 2
Poster Session on Hurricane Sandy and the Built Environment
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; and the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013 )
Cochairs: Tanja Fransen, NOAA/NWS; Randy A. Peppler, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; Kimberly E. Klockow, AAAS
 
856
NWS and CDC - Working Together to Communicate Weather-Related Health Hazards
Michelle D. Hawkins, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Carpenter, F. Horsfall, V. Abrams Siegel, L. Briseno, and C. Scheel

 
857
SUPERSTORM SANDY AND VOTER VULNERABILITY IN THE 2012 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Neil Debbage, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia; and N. Gonsalves, J. M. Shepherd, and J. A. Knox

Handout (5.8 MB)

 
858
Public Perception and Response to Superstorm Sandy
Lindsay Rice, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and J. M. Collins, H. Gladwin, and B. Morrow

 
862
Analyzing U.S. fatalities from Superstorm Sandy using Socioeconomic and Exposure Metrics
Craig A. Ramseyer, University Of Georgia, Athens, GA; and Y. Wang, J. Vanexel, J. M. Shepherd, and J. A. Knox

Handout (4.6 MB)

 
863
Superstorm Sandy's Social Media Surge in Twitter: A Three-Dimensional Analysis
Craig A. Ramseyer, University Of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. A. Knox, J. Rackley, and A. W. Black

 
865
SCOOP - the National Data Buoy Center's “Game Changer” for Ocean Observations
Helmut H. Portmann, NOAA/NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS

 
866
Satellite Products to Monitor and Predict Hurricane Sandy – Current and Emerging Products
Michael J. Folmer, Univ. of Maryland, Elkridge, MD; and M. DeMaria and R. R. Ferraro

 
867
Using real-time retrievals from multiple hyperspectral sounders in the analysis of Superstorm Sandy
Elisabeth Weisz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. Smith Sr. and N. Smith

 
868
The Nor'easter That Wasn't: Extratropical Cyclogenesis Without Hurricane Sandy
Steven G. Decker, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ

Handout (2.7 MB)

 
870
The Mid-level Contribution of Hurricane Rafael to the Genesis of Hurricane Sandy
Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and P. T. Duran, P. P. Papin, and L. F. Bosart

 
871
 
872
The influence of outflow layer asymmetries on the structure and intensity of Superstorm Sandy
Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY

 
873
Forecast Performance of an Operational Mesoscale Modeling System for Post- Tropical Storm Sandy in the New York City Metropolitan Region
Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. Cipriani and L. Treinish

 
874
Electric Power Delivery and Transit Infrastructure Performance Models for Sandy
Dorothy A. Reed, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. J. Friedland, R. Zimmerman, and S. Wang
Manuscript (72.3 kB)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 12
Weather and Climate Perspectives of Superstorm Sandy
Location: Georgia Ballroom 2 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; and the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013 )
Chair: David A. Robinson, Rutgers University and NJ State Climatologist
  11:00 AM
TJ12.1
Were Sandy's track and intensity changes unusual?
Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan and H. Chen
  11:15 AM
TJ12.2
On Providing the Climate Risk Information that supported New York City's Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency
Daniel Bader, Columbia University, New York, NY; and C. Rosenzweig, R. M. Horton, V. Gornitz, and W. Solecki
  11:30 AM
TJ12.3
Will the future atmospheric circulation favor the landfall of Sandy-like superstorms?
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and L. M. Polvani and A. H. Sobel
  11:45 AM
TJ12.4
Was Sandy caused by global warming?
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and T. M. Hall, D. Shaevitz, S. J. Camargo, and U. S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 13
Societal Impacts Related to Superstorm Sandy
Location: Georgia Ballroom 2 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; and the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013 )
Chair: Tanja Fransen, NOAA/NWS
  1:30 PM
TJ13.1
New Jersey State Climate Office Services and Sandy
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and D. P. Fittante, M. R. Gerbush, E. Namendorf, J. Read, C. Shmukler, N. Stefano, and D. A. Zarrow
  1:45 PM
TJ13.2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy: Preparation, Impact, and Response by The Consolidated Edison Company of New York
Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison Company of New York, New York, NY; and R. Derech
  2:00 PM
TJ13.3
Deaths Associated with Hurricane Sandy: October–November 2012
Rebecca S. Noe, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Chamblee, GA; and M. Murti, E. Yard, A. Wolkin, and M. Casey-Lockyer
  2:15 PM
TJ13.4
  2:30 PM
TJ13.5
The Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) Methodology: Application and a Case Study of New York City
Megan E. Linkin, Swiss Re America Holding Corporation, Armonk, NY; and D. N. Bresch, M. Way, and L. Mueller
  2:45 PM
TJ13.6
After Sandy—Who's Next?
William Read, Former Director, National Hurricane Center, League City, TX

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 14
Modeling of Superstorm Sandy
Location: Georgia Ballroom 2 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; and the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013 )
Chair: William Read, National Hurricane Center
  3:30 PM
TJ14.1
Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model
Bo-Wen Shen, UMCP/ESSIC and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. DeMaria, J. L. Li, and S. Cheung

Handout (3.0 MB)

  3:45 PM
TJ14.2
Intensification of Hurricane Sandy (2012) through Extratropical Warm Core Seclusion
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis and M. A. Shapiro
  4:00 PM
TJ14.3
Multi-Scale Predictability Aspects of Superstorm Sandy
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Langland, P. A. Reinecke, and C. M. Amerault
  4:15 PM
TJ14.4
Superstorm Sandy: A Perfect Testbed for Integrated Impact Forecasting using Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean-Surge Models
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. Curcic, B. Kerns, and C. Y. Lee

  4:30 PM
TJ14.5
Modeling and Dissecting Hurricane Sandy's Storm Surge and Overland Inundation
Alan Blumberg, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ; and P. Orton and N. Georgas
  4:45 PM
TJ14.6
High Resolution Ensemble Storm Surge Predictions for Superstorm Sandy Around the New York City Region
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Kuang, H. Bowman, M. J. Bowman, C. Flagg, F. Zhang, Y. Weng, and E. B. Munsell