Short Course/Student Conference Registration
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Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
Session 1 Opening Session (ROOM 605/606)
| 9:00 AM | Welcoming Remarks: Ed Bensman and Mary Cairns, Program Co-chairpersons | ||
| 9:15 AM | 1.1 | MODIS Winds in NAVDAS  Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley | |
| 9:30 AM | 1.2 | Applying the new Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to National Weather Service forecast office operations Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Smart, J. McGinley, M. Kay, J. Mahoney, P. Welsh, P. Bogenschutz, P. Ruscher, J. Savadel, and A. Wildman | |
| 9:45 AM | 1.3 | Grid-Based Bias Removal For Mesoscale Model Forecasts Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed | |
| 10:00 AM | 1.4 | Verification of NDFD Gridded Forecasts in the Western United States John D. Horel, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Colman and M. Jackson |
Joint Session 1 Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 9:00 AM | Welcoming Remarks | ||
| 9:15 AM | J1.2 | THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO | |
| 9:45 AM | J1.3 | Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish | |
| 10:00 AM | J1.4 | Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system  Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth | |
| 10:15 AM | Coffee Break in Poster session room | ||
| 10:45 AM | J1.5 | Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu | |
| 11:00 AM | J1.6 | An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu | |
| 11:15 AM | J1.7 | Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin | |
| 11:30 AM | J1.8 | The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos | |
| 11:45 AM | J1.9 | Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou | |
| 12:00 PM | J1.10 | Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF) Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth |
Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
Session 2 Analysis Techniques (ROOM 605/606)
| 10:45 AM | 2.1 | Snowin' to Beat The Band: Using Satellite Imagery and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Output to Diagnose the Rapid Development of A Mesoscale Snow Band David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and E. Vallier-Talbot | |
| 11:00 AM | 2.2 | Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. L. Haines, R. J. Suggs, T. Bradshaw, C. Darden, and J. E. Burks | |
| 11:15 AM | 2.3 | A Fresh Look at Persistent Ridging in the North Pacfic John M. Papineau, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK | |
| 11:30 AM | 2.4 | Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik | |
| 11:45 AM | 2.5 | Assimilation of MODIS temperature and water vapor profiles into a mesoscale analysis system Bradley T. Zavodsky, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Lazarus, P. F. Blottman, and D. W. Sharp |
Session 3 Verification Studies (ROOM 619/620)
| 10:45 AM | 3.1 | On the determination of forecast errors arising from different components of model physics and dynamics T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Sanjay, A. K. Mitra, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar | |
| 10:59 AM | 3.2 | Paper moved to Session 7, New Paper number 7.5A | |
| 11:00 AM | 3.2a | A Numerical Model Investigation of Intensity Forecast Error for Hurricane Lili (2002) (Formerly paper number 7.5) Yi Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and C.-S. Liou | |
| 11:15 AM | 3.3 | Ongoing assessment of GPS-IPW impact on RUC forecasts Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and S. Sahm | |
| 11:30 AM | 3.4 | The impact of model resolution improvements and statistical forecast techniques on mesoscale prediction during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games Kenneth A. Hart, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert | |
| 11:45 AM | 3.5 | Validation of MM5 for evolution of cold fronts approaching the Gulf of Mexico Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and K. Davenport |
Session 4 Convection (ROOM 607)
| 10:45 AM | 4.1 | Convection in BAMEX during an active subtropical jet period Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Galarneau, Jr. | |
| 4.2 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 11:00 AM | 4.3 | The impact of choice of convective scheme on synoptic features in the NCEP Eta model Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD | |
| 11:15 AM | 4.4 | Evaluation of an Improved Convection Triggering Mechanism in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2 Under CAPT Framework Shaocheng Xie, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. S. Boyle, R. T. Cederwall, G. L. Potter, and M. Zhang | |
| 11:30 AM | 4.5 | Impact of Turbulent Liquid Water Flux on Cloud Microphysics in Mesoscale Models Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt and J.-C. Golaz |
Lunch Break
Joint Session 2 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 1:30 PM | J2.1 | Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill | |
| 1:45 PM | J2.2 | Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara | |
| 2:00 PM | J2.3 | The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo | |
| 2:15 PM | J2.4 | A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke |
Session 5 Case Studies (ROOM 605/606)
| 1:30 PM | 5.1 | The St. Patrick’s Day Snowstorm, 2002, Anchorage, Alaska Joel C. Curtis, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and J. M. Papineau, C. A. Scott, and K. Johnson | |
| 1:45 PM | 5.2 | Using low-level precipitable hydrometeor mixing ratios from the MM5 to determine precipitation type: Ohio valley cases from the 2002–2003 winter Chris Smallcomb, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and T. Sturey | |
| 1:59 PM | Paper 5.3 has been moved to Session 10, New Paper Number 10.3A | ||
| 2:00 PM | 5.3a | Mesoscale model simulations in Quasi-forecast mode of the great western storm of 16–20 March 2003 (Formerly Paper Number 10.3) Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Poulos, J. Snook, E. Szoke, M. P. Meyers, G. Byrd, R. A. Rozumalski, and H. McIntyre | |
| 2:15 PM | 5.4 | Model Dynamic and Microphysical Verification of the 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE 2 Case Matthew Garvert, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. A. Colle, C. Mass, and C. P. Woods |
Session 6 Model Output Statistics (MOS) (ROOM 619/620)
| 1:30 PM | 6.1 | Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. C. Erickson and J. C. Maloney, III | |
| 1:45 PM | 6.2 | Adjusting model output statistics (MOS) surface temperature forecasts using multiple linear regression and Kalman filtering Andrew A. Taylor, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. B. Richman | |
| 2:00 PM | 6.3 | Producing MOS Snowfall Amount Forecasts from Cooperative Observer Reports Rebecca L. Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Sfanos | |
| 2:15 PM | 6.4 | Are Model Output Statistics still needed? Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA; and K. A. Hanson |
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Poster Session 1 Monday Posters
| P1.1 | Simulation of the 27 May 1997 central Texas tornadic storms: Cell development and the role of the preexisting boundary Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. S. Gilmore and R. B. Wilhelmson | |
| P1.2 | Severe weather outbreak over Phoenix, Arizona, on 14 July 2002 G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and E. S. Pytlak | |
| P1.3 | Role of Tropical Cyclone in Southern China on the Heavy Rainfall over Korea Kye-Hwan Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S.-Y. Hong | |
| P1.4 | Preliminary results of a real time, time to space conversion for surface analysis James Correia, Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt | |
| P1.5 | Orographic effect on heavy rainfall in the east coast of the Korean Peninsula induced by a tropical cyclone Seon K. Park, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; and E. Lee, D.-E. Chang, and L. Leslie | |
| P1.6 | Winter storm forecasting as a two-step process: the 26–27 November 2001 snowstorm Martin A. Baxter, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng, C. E. Graves, and J. T. Moore | |
| P1.7 | Numerical modelling of the 31 May 1998 severe bow echo James Correia, Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt | |
| P1.8 | Large scale regime transition and its relationship to significant cool season precipitation events in the Northeast Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. Grumm | |
| P1.9 | Insights into Columbia Gorge Gap Flow through High Resolution Simulations of Actual and Idealized Events Justin Sharp, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass | |
| P1.10 | Initial and Boundary Conditions for a Limited Area Ensemble Kalman Filter Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim and C. Snyder | |
| P1.11 | Improved tropical cyclone prediction using 4-D variational assimilation of high-resolution satellite and radar data Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. F. LeMarshall | |
| P1.12 | Mesoscale variational assimilation of profiling radiometer data Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and C. Grassotti and R. Ware | |
| P1.13 | Assimilation of ground-based GPS PWV with 3DVAR system for a IHOP case Y.-R. Guo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Kusaka, D. M. Barker, Y.-H. Kuo, and A. Crook | |
| P1.14 | Support of the Air Force Weather Agency's Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) and Cloud Depiction Forecast System-II (CDFS-II): A Current Status Report Fritz VanWijngaarden, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, S. Bellevue, NE; and M. Kaufman, A. Ronn, and R. S. Penc | |
| P1.15 | Verification of mesoscale modeling for the heavy rainfall event of May 12, 2000 over southern Ontario Zuohao Cao, MSC, Burlington, ON, Canada | |
| P1.16 | Using the COAMPSTM adjoint modeling system to forecast a tropical cyclone Clark M. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou | |
| P1.17 | Understanding the Analysis Error Pattern of a 3DVAR System Using Streamfunction and Velocity Potential Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO | |
| P1.18 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | |
| P1.19 | The Steepness Limit to Validity of Approximations to Pressure Gradient Force: any Signs of an Impact? Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD | |
| P1.20 | The RUC 3dvar: Operational performance and recent improvements Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt | |
| P1.21 | The planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland | |
| P1.22 | The Influence of Lake Michigan on a Wintertime Cold Front Joseph G. Dreher, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich | |
| P1.23 | The Impact of Assimilating GPS-PW data using WRF-3DVAR on a Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP Hiroyuki Kusaka, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and Y.-R. Guo, A. Crook, D. M. Barker, and H. Hirakuchi | |
| P1.24 | Terrain effetcs on the simulation of heavy rainfall occured at the Jiri mountain area of the Korean peninsula Mee-Hyun Jo, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G.-H. Lim | |
| P1.25 | The global 3DVAR system of Korea Meteorological Administration Sang-Won Joo, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H.-C. Shin and W.-J. Lee | |
| P1.26 | A Modification to the Bratseth Method of Successive Corrections for Complex Terrain David T. Myrick, University of Utah, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and S. M. Lazarus | |
| P1.27 | An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical cyclones Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart | |
| P1.28 | Access to real-time and retrospective Numerical Weather Prediction models at the National Climatic Data Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert and W. T. Smith | |
| P1.29 | A reanalysis of Hurricane Hazel (1954) Scott R. Weese, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum | |
| P1.30 | A multi-scale analysis of the end of the millennium snowstorm Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and A. C. Wasula and L. F. Bosart | |
| P1.31 | A Finite-Volume Mass- and Vorticity-conserving Solver of the Shallow-Water Equations on the Sphere using Penta-/Hexagonal Grids William Sawyer, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland | |
| P1.32 | A different beast: An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the Intermountain region of the Western United States Jason C. Shafer, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West | |
| P1.33 | A composite study of precipitation distribution in U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari | |
| P1.34 | A Comparison of Satellite and Sounding Derived Cloud Top Temperatures Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Bateman and B. C. Bernstein | |
| P1.35 | A 4DVAR Analysis of the Febraury 7–8, 2002 Oregon Cyclone Brian C. Ancell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass | |
| P1.36 | Impact of mesoscale data, cloud analysis on the explicit prediction of an MCS during IHOP 2002 Daniel T. Dawson, II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue | |
| P1.37 | Are there weather holes? An objective analysis Matthew D. Parker, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. C. Knievel | |
| P1.38 | Generation of improved land-surface data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie, J. Merchant, A. Taylor, C. Godfrey, and R. Bonifaz | |
| P1.39 | Flash flooding during a severe drought situation: a case study of the 2002 Ogallala, NE event Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe, D. B. Radell, and J. R. McCormick | |
| P1.40 | Estimation of observation impact using the NAVDAS adjoint system Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker | |
| P1.41 | Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season Numeical QPF be Improved? William Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. Hoch, B. Shaw, and S. Dembek | |
| P1.42 | Data Assimilation using Weather Research and Forecasting Model: An Effort to Improve Fine-Scale Modeling R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz, M. A. Askelsen, and L. Osborne | |
| P1.43 | Convective Towers in Eyewalls of Tropical Cyclones Observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar in 1998–2001 Owen A. Kelley, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Stout | |
| P1.44 | Cold season 500 hPa cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution and a case study Anthony R. Fracasso, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. Evans | |
| P1.45 | Coherent global intraseasonal oscillation deduced by CSEOF Baek-Min Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G.-H. Lim and K.-Y. Kim | |
| P1.46 | Case studies of warm season cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution Jessica S. Najuch, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. Wasula, and K. LaPenta | |
| P1.47 | Assimilation of surface cloud, visibility, and current weather observations in the RUC Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, B. Schwartz, and W. R. Moninger | |
| P1.48 | Use of TMI and SSM/I data in JMA Operational Meso-Analysis Yoshiaki Sato, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Takeuchi and T. Tauchi |
Joint Session 3 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)
| 4:00 PM | J3.1 | Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski | |
| 4:15 PM | J3.2 | Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu | |
| 4:30 PM | J3.3 | Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell | |
| 4:45 PM | J3.4 | Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue | |
| 5:00 PM | J3.5 | Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder | |
| 5:15 PM | J3.6 | Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA |
Session 7 Verification Studies: Part II (ROOM 619/620)
Session 8 Case Studies: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
| 4:00 PM | 8.1 | A forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within developing extratropical cyclones David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and J. S. Waldstreicher, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser | |
| 4:15 PM | 8.2 | Analysis of the Texas Norther: Case Study Frank P. Colby, Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA | |
| 4:30 PM | 8.3 | The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. east coast snowstorm 20WAF_mjb_70314.ppt Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann | |
| 4:45 PM | 8.4 | Assessing the impact of meteorological conditions upon tornado evolution during 4 May 2003 tornado outbreak Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and G. Koch, M. Stoflet, and S. M. Fortin | |
| 5:00 PM | 8.5 | Diagnosis and Prediction of the 3–4 June 2002 Iowa-Illinois Flood WAF_04hvyrn_DVN.ppt James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. A. Wolf, B. L. Mickelson, J. A. Zogg, and C. E. Graves | |
| 5:15 PM | 8.6 | March 12–13th, "Bora" Windstorm across much of South-Central Alaska Carven A. Scott, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and S. E. Baines and J. P. Papineau |
Sessions end for the Day
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
Fred Sanders Banquet
Joint Session 4 Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 8:30 AM | J4.1 | Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO | |
| 8:45 AM | J4.2 | Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD | |
| 9:00 AM | J4.3 | Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002 Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S.-Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H.-Y. Chun | |
| 9:15 AM | J4.4 | Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo | |
| 9:30 AM | J4.5 | The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli |
Joint Session 5 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.
Poster Session 2 Tuesday Posters
| P2.1 | Redistribution of angular momentum in a global forecast model due to change in drag parameterizations Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan | |
| P2.2 | The importance of moisture profile with vertical wind shear in the dynamics of mid-latitude squall lines Tetsuya Takemi, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan | |
| P2.3 | The impact of cloud microphysics on the surface solar radiation Hsin-mu Lin, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Ferrier, Y.-T. Hou, E. Rogers, K. E. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, and J. Meng | |
| P2.4 | Sub-Grid Scale Mountain Blocking at NCEP Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD | |
| P2.5 | Paper Moved to Session 17, New paper Number 17.5A | |
| P2.6 | Recent advances in supercell modeling Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and D. J. Stensrud | |
| P2.7 | Prognostic ozone in NOGAPS Douglas Allen, NRL, Washington, DC; and L. Coy, S. Eckermann, J. McCormack, T. Hogan, and Y.-J. Kim | |
| P2.8 | The MURI Uncertainty Monitor (MUM) David W. Jones, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Joslyn | |
| P2.9 | The operational implications of forecasting a heavy snow event over the central Rockies in an atypical flow regime Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO; and J. D. Colton, R. L. McAnelly, W. R. Cotton, D. A. Wesley, J. S. Snook, and G. S. Poulos | |
| P2.10 | Tornadic Supercell Outbreaks in the Southern Great Plains Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. Brooks | |
| P2.11 | The WRF-single-moment-microphysics scheme and its evaluation of the simulation of mesoscale convective systems Jeong-Ock Jade Lim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S.-Y. Hong and J. Dudhia | |
| P2.12 | Towards evaluating surface heat flux parameterizations from a large-scale perspective: Arctic Ocean example Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL | |
| P2.13 | Winter forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modelling system in the northeast U.S.—winter 2002–2003 Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish | |
| P2.14 | Using PV concepts to diagnose a poorly-predicted heavy snow band in New England (6–7 January 2003) Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and P. Sisson | |
| P2.15 | Operational forecasting of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) Walt McKeown, Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA | |
| P2.16 | Numerically Simulated Interactions Between a Precipitating Synoptic System and Lake-Effect Snowbands over Lake Michigan Katy L. Fitzpatrick, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich | |
| P2.17 | A standard test set for nonhydrostatic dynamical cores of NWP models William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Doyle, P. Clark, and N. Wood | |
| P2.18 | An experiment in probabilistic quantitative snowfall forecasting Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and M. P. DeLisi | |
| P2.19 | An investigation of IHOP convective system predictability using a matrix of 19 WRF members Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, Jr., B. Shaw, and S. E. Koch | |
| P2.20 | Model Applications to the Hawaiian Islands DaNa L. Carlis, NOAA/Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris | |
| P2.21 | Comparison between Regional Spectral Model and high-resolution global circulation model in North American Monsoon simulation Yucheng Song, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H.-M. H. Juang and K. Mo | |
| P2.22 | Development of a New Land-Surface Model for JMA-GSM Masayuki Hirai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Ohizumi | |
| P2.23 | Evaluating surface weather variables predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the western United States William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh | |
| P2.24 | Evaluation of the National Marine Verification Program at WFO Key West Matt C. Parke, NOAA/NWSFO, Key West, FL; and A. Devanas | |
| P2.25 | Global variable resolution Euler model development and application Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Roman and L. A. Byerle | |
| P2.26 | Influence of ambient flows and topography on the interannual signal and medium-range predictability over the western U.S. during winter Lee A. Byerle, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Paegle | |
| P2.27 | Intercomparison of global research and operational forecasts Jennifer C. Roman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle | |
| P2.28 | Learning from a null derecho event—the convective forecast for 08 July 2003 Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE; and R. Adams | |
| P2.29 | The influence of highly resolved sea surface temperatures on Meteorological Simulations off the Southeast US Coast Peter Childs, State Climate Office of North Carolina and North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and R. Boyles |
Joint Session 6 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 11:00 AM | J6.1 | Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit | |
| 11:15 AM | J6.2 | Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks, II, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau | |
| 11:30 AM | J6.3 | Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei | |
| 11:45 AM | J6.4 | Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop | |
| 12:00 PM | J6.5 | Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco |
Session 9 Maximizing the Value of Model Output (ROOM 605/606)
Exhibits Open
Session 10 Public Forecast and Warning Issues (ROOM 607)
| 1:30 PM | 10.1 | The Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Mahoney, A. C. Wood, J. G. LaDue, and X. Yu | |
| 1:45 PM | 10.2 | High Impact Sub-Advisory Snow Events: The Need to Effectively Communicate the Threat of Short Duration High Intensity Snowfall Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA | |
| 1:59 PM | Paper 10.3 has been moved to Session 5, New Paper Number 5.3A | ||
| 2:00 PM | 10.3a | Performance of various operational and experimental numerical forecasts for the March 2003 Colorado snowstorm (Formerly Paper Number 5.3) Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, P. Schultz, and D. Barjenbruch | |
| 2:15 PM | 10.4 | Initial Evaluation Results of the Eta, NMM, GFS, SREF, and RUC Models During the 2003 New England High Resolution Temperature Forecast Program James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Zamora, J.-W. Bao, I. V. Djalalova, J. T. McQueen, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, H.-L. Pan, K. Mitchell, G. DiMego, J. Du, B. Zhou, and S. Benjamin | |
| 2:30 PM | 10.5 | Highlights from the Joint Polarization Experiment operational demonstration Kevin A. Scharfenberg, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. L. Heinselman, D. J. Miller, D. L. Andra, Jr., and M. P. Foster | |
| 2:45 PM | 10.6 | Issues in verification of public forecasts Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and E. Abrams and M. A. Steinberg |
Session 11 WRF Model Overview and Agency Programs (ROOM 605/606)
| 1:30 PM | 11.1 | Overview of the WRF Effort: Partnership, Process and Goals John L. Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD | |
| 1:45 PM | 11.2 | Next-Generation Mesoscale Modeling: A Technical Overview Of WRF Joseph B. Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO | |
| 2:00 PM | 11.3 | The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Seaman | |
| 2:15 PM | 11.4 | ON THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE AIR FORCE WEATHER WEAPON SYSTEM'S NEXT GENERATION MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL: THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL (WRF) Mark T. Surmeier, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. W. Wegiel | |
| 2:30 PM | 11.5 | The Navy role in WRF Richard M. Hodur, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle | |
| 2:45 PM | 11.6 | Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
Joint Session 7 Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 1:30 PM | J7.1 | The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC) David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott | |
| 1:45 PM | J7.2 | A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD | |
| 2:00 PM | J7.3 | AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson | |
| 2:15 PM | J7.4 | Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL | |
| 2:30 PM | J7.5 | Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar | |
| 2:45 PM | J7.6 | Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ | |
| 3:00 PM | Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall | ||
| 3:30 PM | J7.7 | Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer | |
| 3:45 PM | J7.8 | Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea | |
| 4:00 PM | J7.9 | Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker | |
| 4:15 PM | J7.10 | Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
Session 12 WRF Model Development and Applications (ROOM 605/606)
| 3:30 PM | 12.1 | Real-time applications of the WRF model at the Forecast Systems Laboratory Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. A. McGinley, J. M. Brown, P. Schultz, E. J. Szoke, T. G. Smirnova, B. L. Shaw, D. Birkenheuer, S. Albers, S. E. Peckham, and G. A. Grell | |
| 3:45 PM | 12.2 | Results of WRF development activities at NCEP Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, H. Chuang, J. Derber, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, D. Keyser, M. Pyle, and W. Wu | |
| 4:00 PM | 12.3 | Implementing the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with local data assimilation in a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and A. Wildman, B. Shaw, J. Smart, P. Ruscher, J. McGinley, B. N. Meisner, and P. Bogenschutz | |
| 4:15 PM | 12.4 | Real-time explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model during the BAMEX field program Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Done, W. Wang, and J. Bresch | |
| 4:30 PM | 12.5 | Evaluation of Topographic Flow Simulations from COAMPS and WRF James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA | |
| 4:45 PM | 12.6 | Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/ Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, R. Schmitz, and S. A. McKeen | |
| 5:00 PM | 12.7 | The NCEP WRF core Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD | |
| 5:15 PM | 12.8 | Evaluating dissipation in NWP models using kinetic energy spectra William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin and W. Wang | |
| 5:30 PM | 12.9 | The development of the WRF for Hurricanes (HWRF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Formerly Paper number 14.2) Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, R. Tuleya, W. Shen, and M. Bender |
Session 13 Tropical and Extratropical Transition Studies (ROOM 607)
| 3:30 PM | 13.1 | Role of the Gulf Stream on extratropical cyclogenesis Neil A. Jacobs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, G. M. Lackmann, and P. P. Childs, Jr. | |
| 3:45 PM | 13.2 | Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of north Atlantic tropical cyclones as defined by a cyclone phase space Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans | |
| 4:00 PM | 13.3 | Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis Justin M. Arnott, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans | |
| 4:15 PM | 13.4 | Method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using TRMM PR/TMI data Shunsuke Hoshino, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa | |
| 4:30 PM | 13.5 | The importance of the precipitation mass sink in tropical cyclones Richard M. Yablonsky, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann | |
| 4:45 PM | 13.6 | Relationship between climatology and model track, bearing, and speed errors Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and C.-S. Liou | |
| 5:00 PM | 13.7 | Impact of the Boundary Layer Processes on Simulated Tropical Rainfall Young-Hwa Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S.-Y. Hong | |
| 5:15 PM | 13.8 | Use of Doppler radar data to improve hurricane intensity forecasts Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y.-H. Kuo, W.-C. Lee, and W. Wang |
Sessions end for the day
Panel Discussion 1 The Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process—An Interactive Forum
Session 14 WRF Model Development and Applications: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
| 8:30 AM | 14.1 | NCEP's nonhydrostatic mesoscale model: Forecast guidance and transition to WRF Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Michalakes | |
| 8:44 AM | 14.2 | Paper Moved to Session 12, New Paper Number 12.9 | |
| 8:45 AM | 14.2a | Implementation and verification of the unified Noah land surface model in the WRF model (Formerly Paper Number 17.5) Mukul Tewari, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, W. Wang, J. Dudhia, M. A. LeMone, K. Mitchell, M. Ek, G. Gayno, J. Wegiel, and R. H. Cuenca | |
| 9:00 AM | 14.3 | A globally relocatable Numerical Weather Prediction system based on WRF and ADAS Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett, K. A. Brewster, D. Weber, Y. Wang, J. A. Brotzge, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and D. Jahn | |
| 9:15 AM | 14.4 | A Graphical User Interface to Prepare the Standard Initialization for WRF Paula T. McCaslin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart, B. Shaw, and B. D. Jamison |
Session 15 Forecasters Forum (ROOM 607)
Joint Session 8 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 8:30 AM | J8.1 | On the predictability of flows with many scales Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO | |
| 8:45 AM | J8.2 | Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles William J. Martin, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue | |
| 9:00 AM | J8.3 | Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond | |
| 9:15 AM | J8.4 | Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim |
Coffee Break
Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
Lunch Break
Exhibit Hours
Session 16 Climatologies (ROOM 607)
| 1:30 PM | 16.1 | A climatology of large-scale North Pacific cyclones and their predictability Linda M. Keller, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan | |
| 1:45 PM | 16.2 | A climatological study of 100 mm or greater days in northern California Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart | |
| 2:00 PM | 16.3 | Global climatology of closed 1000–500 hPa thickness highs and lows Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, A. R. Aiyyer, and E. H. Atallah | |
| 2:15 PM | 16.4 | Cool season tornadoes in the southeast United States: A climatological and case study perspective Alicia C. Wasula, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, R. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, and R. H. Johns |
Joint Session 9 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
| 1:30 PM | J9.1 | Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD | |
| 1:45 PM | J9.2 | Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song | |
| 2:00 PM | J9.3 | Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen | |
| 2:15 PM | J9.4 | Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay |
Joint Session 10 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
| 1:30 PM | J10.1 | Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker | |
| 1:45 PM | J10.2 | Computing the odds on a good probability forecast Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom | |
| 2:00 PM | J10.3 | The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA | |
| 2:15 PM | J10.4 | Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J.-K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux | |
| 2:30 PM | J10.5 | Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom |
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
Poster Session 3 Wednesday Posters
| P3.1 | GOES Data Assimilation in MM5: Application for Texas Air Quality Study 2000 Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. McNider, K. Doty, S. L. Haines, W. Lapenta, R. J. Suggs, and G. Jedlovec | |
| P3.2 | The effect of differential cloud cover on the propagation of a surface cold front James Correia, Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt | |
| P3.3 | The experimental seasonal forecast and recent implementation of NCEP RSM Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Wang and J. Han | |
| P3.4 | The distribution of precipitation over the Northeast accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones David P. DeLuca, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee | |
| P3.5 | Development of capability for regional mesoscale ensemble forecasts Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Zelazny and D. Lu | |
| P3.6 | Atmospheric Prognostic and Dispersion Model Design for Use in the European ENSEMBLE Modeling Exercises Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. P. Addis | |
| P3.7 | Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) diabatic initialization of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for the IHOP-2002 field experiment Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, D. Birkenheuer, J. Brown, J. McGinley, P. Schultz, J. Smart, and E. Szoke | |
| P3.8 | Application of Scale-Recursive Estimation to Ensemble Forecasts: A Comparison of Coarse and Fine Resolution Simulations of a Deep Convective Storm Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou | |
| P3.9 | A successful simulation of a strong kona low: What it tells us about the role latent heat Steven Businger, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Cherubini | |
| P3.10 | A simple model study of regime transition predictability: How do we best make use of a bimodal forecast ensemble? Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen | |
| P3.11 | A comparison of an ensemble of positive/negative pairs and a centered spherical simplex ensemble Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Julier | |
| P3.12 | Error Growth and Adaptive Observations Hyun Mee Kim, MRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and Y.-H. Youn and H.-S. Chung | |
| P3.13 | Identifying state-dependent model error in NWP Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu | |
| P3.14 | On-line Probability Forecasts with DIME Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics & Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. S. Roulston | |
| P3.15 | CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM A GLOBAL NWP MODEL Paul A. Vaillancourt, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Belair, M. Roch, and A.-M. Leduc |
Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
| 4:00 PM | J11.1 | The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith | |
| 4:15 PM | J11.2 | Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts? W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen | |
| 4:30 PM | J11.3 | On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter | |
| 4:45 PM | J11.4 | Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it? Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt | |
| 5:00 PM | J11.5 | Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake | |
| 5:15 PM | J11.6 | RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton |
Session 17 WRF Model Development & Applications: Part III (ROOM 605/606)
| 4:00 PM | 17.1 | WRF simulations of rainfall coherence over the continental United States S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, R. E. Carbone, and S. Frederick | |
| 4:15 PM | 17.2 | The diurnal mode of summer rainfall across the conterminous United States in 10-km simulations by the WRF Model Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych and K. W. Manning | |
| 4:30 PM | 17.3 | Testing of a new nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion scheme in numerical weather prediction applications |