Program: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change (89th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting )

Student Conference Badge Pick-up Only

Short Course Registration

Annual Meeting Registration Begins

Weatherfest

Location: Northballroom A (Phoenix Convention Center)

First-Time Attendee Briefing

Location: Room 130 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Annual Meeting Review and Fellows Awards

Location: Room 130 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Fellows Reception

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Registration Open

Presidential Forum

Location: Ballroom ABC (Phoenix Convention Center)

Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

Location: Phoenix Convention Center

1A

Year of Tropical Convection

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chairs: Duane E. Waliser, JPL; Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR

Papers:

10:45 AM

1A.1

Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC): A Joint WWRP and WCRP Activity to Address the Challenges of Multi-Scale Organized Convection

Duane Edward Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and M. W. Moncrieff

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

1A.2

Convective organization and the Year of Tropical Convection (YoTC)

Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Waliser

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

1A.3

The role of continental-scale landmass in monsoons—A GCM investigation

Winston Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

11:30 AM

1A.4

Mesoscale organization of equatorial waves

George Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

1A.5

On the low-level moisture preconditioning of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Baijun Tian, UCniv. of California, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, X. Xie, W. T. Liu, and E. J. Fetzer

1B

Role of land cover in climate and climate change

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

CoChair: Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

10:45 AM

1B.1

Development of the Shrub Submodel for the Community Land Model-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM)

Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng and M. Barlage

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

1B.2

Climate, land use and urbanization: a case study in Xinjiang, China

Zhuoting Wu, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ; and H. Zhang, C. Krause, and N. Cobb

11:15 AM

1B.3

Climate change, cities, and the urban heat island

Mark McCarthy, UK Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and M. Best, R. Betts, and M. Hendry

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

1B.4

Impact of land cover change on climatic variables in Central America

Vani Starry Manoharan, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. Welch, D. K. Ray, R. O. Lawton, T. L. Sever, D. Irwin, and R. Griffin

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

1B.5

Land use change and temperature trends

Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (94.0 kB)

Lunch Break

Tim Oke Symp Luncheon

Location: Room 132A (Phoenix Convention Center)

2

Year of Tropical Convection - II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chairs: Duane E. Waliser, JPL; Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR

Papers:

2.1

Lesson Learned from T-PARC 2008 over the western Pacific

2:00 PM

2.2

Interaction of Convection and SST in the Formation and Disappearance of Double ITCZs in the NCAR CCSM3

Guang J. Zhang, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and X. Song

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

2.3

Extended-Range Predictions of Madden-Julian Oscillations with the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling System

Bo-Wen Shen, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, J. D. Chern, C. Peters-Lidard, and J. L. Li

2:30 PM

2.4

On the importance of macrophysics and microphysics for precipitation in warm clouds - satellite observations and simple continuous collection modeling results

Terence L. Kubar, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and R. Wood and D. L. Hartmann

Recorded presentation

1:30 PM

P1.3

Resolution dependency of tropical convection in Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model

Ildae Choi, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and W. K. Tao and I. S. Kang

Recorded presentation

Poster Session 1

Year of Tropical Convection - posters

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Duane E. Waliser, JPL

Papers:

P1.1

A comparison of the representation of cumulus convection in a global hydrostatic model and a limited-area non-hydrostatic model

Kengo Miyamoto, AESTO/JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Kanada and M. Sugi

P1.2

Activities on the Field Experiments of Precipitation System around the East China Sea from 2006 to 2008

Dong-In Lee, Pukyong National University, Pusan, South Korea; and M. Jang, G. J. Seo, D. S. Kim, M. Kang, S. M. Jang, M. Kim, H. Uyeda, K. Tsuboki, M. Oue, and C. You

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

Poster Session 2

Role of land cover - posters

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Papers:

P2.1

Climate trends and urbanization

Benedicte Dousset, Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

P2.2

Effects of soil wetness, plant litter, and under-canopy atmospheric stability on ground evaporation in the Community Land Model (CLM3.5)

Koichi Sakaguchi, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ ; and X. Zeng

P2.3

Assessing the influence of land development patterns on regional climate using regional circulation models

Guillermo A. Baigorria, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and D. W. Shin, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hernandez, and J. J. O'Brien

P2.4

MRI new land surface model HAL and the impacts on global climate

Masahiro Hosaka, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

P2.5

Characterization of the Urban Heat Island at Buenos Aires city

Mariana Barrucand, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and I. Camilloni and M. Rusticucci

Poster PDF (59.5 kB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

3

Global climate modeling: new frontiers

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Philip W. Mote, Univ. of Washington

Papers:

4:00 PM

3.1

UK-HiGEM: A new high resolution coupled climate model

Len Shaffrey, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale and J. Slingo

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

3.2

Assessing the diurnal cycle of precipitation in a prototype multi-scale climate model

Michael S. Pritchard, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and J. O. Roads

Recorded presentation

3.3

Advantage of a 20km-mesh AGCM in simulating climatological mean fields

4:45 PM

3.3A

Simulating the effects of climate change on parameters for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin

George L. Limpert, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. L. Perrin and A. R. Lupo

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

3.4

Climate change projections with observation-based interannual variability

David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

Recorded presentation

5:15 PM

3.5

New Metrics for Evaluation of Cloud Simulations in Climate Models

Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. H. Jiang, G. L. Stephens, A. Gettelman, and X. Huang

5:30 PM

3.6

Can melting Greenland Ice Sheet cool global climate

Aixue Hu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Meehl and W. Han

Recorded presentation

Joint Session 9

Climate and Policy: From Local to Global

Location: Room 121A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Policy and Socio—Economic Research; and the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Juliane Fry, Reed College; Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona; Ryan M. Meyer, Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes; Arizona State University

Papers:

4:00 PM

J9.1

Climate change and New York City's energy sector: evaluation of vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation strategies

Stephen A. Hammer, Columbia University, New York, NY; and L. Parshall

http://

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (2.6 MB)

4:15 PM

J9.2

CCAP Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments

Josh Foster, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC; and S. Winkelman

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

J9.3

Applied science at the local government level—climate change science for planning professionals

Scott Shuford, UNCA, Asheville, NC; and G. Voos, J. Fox, M. McGuirk, S. K. LeDuc, and E. Shea

4:45 PM

J9.4

Federal trial on California AB1493–CO2 emissions: Perspectives from the losing side

John Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

5:00 PM

J9.5 has been moved. New paper number 5.2A (4Policy)

5:00 PM

J9.5A

Politics, values, and decision making in US climate science

Ryan M. Meyer, Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes; Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ

Recorded presentation

5:15 PM

J9.6

The Complexities of International Climate Policy

Marilyn Averill, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

Opening of the Exhibit Hall with Reception

Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Joint Session 1

Advances in Atmospheric Reanalysis—I

Location: Room 127BC (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/GMAO

Papers:

8:30 AM

J1.1

The evolution of tropical easterly waves across Central America and Mexico: Comparisons of historical radiosonde measurements with reanalyses

Yolande Serra, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

J1.2

Dynamically-downscaled global reanalyses to resolve mesoscale variability in precipitation statistics and their association with large scale circulations

James O. Pinto, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife, J. A. Grim, and A. Monaghan

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J1.3

Winter season forecast experiments with the NCEP coupled forecast system (CFS) using different land models and different initial land states

Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell and J. Meng

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J1.4

Comparison of ERA-Interim and ERA-40 reanalyses with observations over river basins

Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT; and M. Koehler and Y. Zhang

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

9:30 AM

J1.5

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) global water and energy budgets

Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and F. R. Robertson and J. Chen

Recorded presentation

4

Monsoons

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Rosana Nieto-Ferreira, East Carolina University

Papers:

8:30 AM

4.1

Comparisons of Cloud Water Content between CloudSat Estimates and ECMWF Analyses over Asian Monsoon Region and Tibet

Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, C. P. Woods, H. H. Hsu, C. H. Wu, J. Y. Yu, W. W. Tung, Y. C. Wang, A. M. Tompkins, and M. Köhler

8:45 AM

4.2

On the Predictability of Summer Monsoon Depressions over South Asia

Yi-Chi Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (604.1 kB)

9:00 AM

4.3

Seasonal variations of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau and ultimate effects on the East Asian summer monsoon

Li Xu, George Mason University, Calverton, MD

9:15 AM

4.4

The relation between the Tibetan snow in spring and the East Asia summer monsoon circulation in 2003: A modling study

Song You Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and K. H. Seol

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

4.5

Vertical Cloud Water Structures of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability Based on CloudSat Observations

Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, J. L. Li, and C. P. Woods

Poster Session 3

Global dynamics and prediction - posters

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Papers:

P3.1

Comparisons of Satellites Liquid Water Estimates with ECMWF and GMAO Analyses, 20th Century IPCC AR4 Climate Simulations, and GCM Simulations

Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, C. P. Woods, J. Teixeira, J. Bacmeister, J. D. Chern, B. W. Shen, and A. M. Tompkins

P3.2

Progress in Reconstructing 20th Century Oceanic Precipitation

Phillip A. Arkin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and T. M. Smith and M. R. P. Sapiano

P3.3

Additive effect of two solar forcing mechanisms and influences on tropical Pacific climate

Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Arblaster, F. Sassi, and K. Matthes

P3.4

Variance Scaling of Temperature and Water Vapor from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Cloud Water Content from CloudSat

Brian H. Kahn, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. Teixeira and E. J. Fetzer

P3.5

Future change in Northern Hemisphere wintertime atmospheric blocking simulated by a 20-km mesh atmospheric global circulation model

Mio Matsueda, AESTO/MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and R. Mizuta and S. Kusunoki

Poster PDF (563.2 kB)

P3.6

P3.6 has been moved. New paper 7A.4A

P3.7

Global shortwave aerosol radiative effect over land from Terra and Aqua

Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. A. Christopher

P3.8

Modeling the ability of the atmosphere to regain an equilibrium state following carbon dioxide-induced forcing

Brittany L. Perrin, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and G. L. Limpert and A. R. Lupo

P3.9

P3.9 has been moved. New paper 3.3A

P3.10

Eastern Australian Dust Storm Variability: Result of Multidecadal Pacific Climate System Forcing with Climate Change Implications

Peter J. Lamb, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; and L. M. Leslie, R. P. Timmer, and M. S. Speer

P3.11

Global and seasonal assessment climate/ vegetation biophysical process (VBP) interactions

P3.12

Diurnal cycle of surface radiation budget and regional climate

Pamela E. Mlynczak, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr.

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

P3.13

A GCM-based analysis of circulation controls on del18O in the southwest Yukon, Canada: implications for climate reconstructions in the region

Robert Field, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. W. K. Moore and G. Holdsworth

P3.14

Seasonal prediction with CCSM3.0: general skill assessment and impact of land surface initialization

James L. Kinter III, COLA, Calverton, MD; and D. Paolino, D. M. Straus, B. P. Kirtman, and D. Min

P3.15

Large scale variability in the Arctic cloud and radiative climatology

Neil Barton, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. E. Veron

P3.16

Ensuring Consistency Between NWS National and Local 3 Month Temperature Outlooks

Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Hollingshead and D. A. Unger

P3.17

SCALE AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING EVENTS

Athar Hussain, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo

Poster Session 4

Tropical cyclones and monsoons - posters

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Papers:

P4.1

Decadal Change in the Relationship between East Asian-Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon System and ENSO in the Mid-1990s

P4.2

Effects of duyrnal cycles on the simulated precipitation associated with Asian summer monsoon circulation

Song You Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and M. Kanamitsu and J. E. Kim

P4.3

Structure and evolution of the North American monsoon in Arizona: observational and modeling study

Dorothea Ivanova, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and C. N. James and P. Grey

P4.4

Simulations of present-day tropical cyclone climatology and their temporal variability associated with ENSO with a 20-km-mesh high-resolution AGCM

Hiroyuki Murakami, AESTO/MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and J. Yoshimura and B. Wang

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P4.5

The Precipitation Climatology for the Eyewalls of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones at Landfall

P4.6

The impact of tropical cyclone size on North Atlantic ACE and PDI

Angela M. Fritz, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. I. Belanger and J. A. Curry

P4.7

Assessing tropical cyclone contribution to annual global rainfall

Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. D. Marks Jr.

P4.8

Modeling hurricane hazard in the United States using regression trees

Roshanak Nateghi, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and S. M. Quiring and S. D. Guikema

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (See poster listing in Monday's program)

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Joint Session 4

Advances in Atmospheric Reanalysis—II

Location: Room 127BC (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/GMAO

Papers:

11:00 AM

J4.1

The interrelationships among water and energy parameters in reanalyses

Junye Chen, Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC & NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and M. G. Bosilovich

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

J4.2

Atmospheric water cycle component interactions in the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis

A.C. Ruane, NASA/GISS and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, New York, NY

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

J4.3

The Multi-Source Analysis of Precipitation (MSAP)

Phillip A. Arkin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. R. P. Sapiano and T. M. Smith

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

J4.4

The Twentieth Century reanalysis project

Gilbert P. Compo, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. Whitaker and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded presentation

5

Monsoons - II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Rosana Nieto-Ferreira, East Carolina University

Papers:

11:00 AM

5.1

Analyzing occurrences and vertical structures of hydrometeors over the Asian summer monsoon regions and the Tibetan Plateau region using CloudSat/CALIPSO data

Yali Luo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, , China; and R. Zhang and H. Wang

11:15 AM

5.2

Mechanisms for temporal and spatial variations of South America Monsoon Onset gleaned from TRMM observations of convective structure

Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto-Ferreira, S. W. Nesbitt, and D. Herdies

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

5.3

Radar observations of convective system variability and interaction with African easterly waves in the West African Sahel region

Rosana Nieto-Ferreira, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and T. M. Rickenbach, N. Guy, and E. R. Williams

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

5.4

Mechanisms of increasing North Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent precipitation after major El Nino events

Hyo Seok Park, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and J. C. H. Chiang, B. R. Lintner, and G. J. Zhang

Exhibits Open

Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)

Joint Panel Discussion 2

Climate services

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Symposium on Policy and Socio—Economic Research )

Moderator: Eileen Shea, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Panelists: Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc.; Eric Barron, NCAR; James Buizer, Arizona State University; Anton F. Haffer, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

1:30 PM

Topic: Special Challenges for Climate Services to Cities in a Changing Climate.

Recorded presentation

6

Global dynamics and processes

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, Univ. of California Davis

Papers:

1:30 PM

6.1

Stochastic processes in climate modeling: from Lorenz to the El-Niño recharge oscillator and beyond

Michael Ghil, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; and M. D. Chekroun and E. Simonnet

1:45 PM

6.2

Evaluating the physics of climate models using satellite observations and high-resolution models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI)

Joao Teixeira, JPL, Pasadena, CA

2:00 PM

6.3

Observed Relationships between Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature on Inter-annual and Longer Time Scales

Robert F. Adler, ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. Gu and G. J. Huffman

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

6.4

Water vapor variability on daily to decadal timescales

T. H. Vonder Haar, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. M. Forsythe

Recorded presentation

2:30 PM

6.5

Sensitivity of Global Warming Prediction to Surface Latent Heat Flux: Relative Humidity Feedback

Jian (Tony) Ma, AGU, Honolulu, HI; and S. P. Xie and I. Richter

Recorded presentation

Joint Session 7

Climate Variability in Coastal Zones

Location: Room 126A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes; and the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: David H. Levinson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC; Darko Koracin, DRI

Papers:

1:30 PM

J7.1

Variations in Large-Scale Circulation Affecting Extreme Hurricane-Generated Waves and Surges in the Gulf of Mexico

Donald T. Resio, ERDC, Vicksburg, MS; and E. A. Orelup and D. H. Levinson

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

J7.2

Impact of Land Cover Land Use Changes on a Sea Breeze Dominated Climate in the Tropics

Daniel E. Comarazamy, Santa Clara University, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez and E. Harmsen

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

J7.3

Coastal process research in Alaska

David E. Atkinson, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

J7.4

Detecting the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes for southern coastal Alaska

David H. Levinson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. C. Kruk

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (185.5 kB)

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center)

7B

Tropical cyclones

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Philip W. Mote, Univ. of Washington

Papers:

3:30 PM

7B.1

An overview of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project

Michael C. Kruk, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and K. Knapp, D. Levinson, H. Diamond, and J. P. Kossin

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ibtracs

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (368.6 kB)

3:45 PM

7B.2

The Atlantic basin hurricane database re-analysis for the decades of the 1920s and 1930s

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

7B.3

The dynamic warm pool: A new paradigm for understanding the role of the tropics in the global heat balance

Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

7B.4

Evolution of the tropical dynamical warm pool and modulation of the intensity and numbers of tropical cyclones

Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

7B.5

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone structure change with a 20km-mesh high-resolution global model

Hiroyuki Murakami, AESTO/MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Kitoh

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

7B.6

Modulation of tropical cyclones by natural modes of large-scale climate variability

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo and M. C. Wheeler

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

7B.7

Aircraft measurement of the probability distribution of precipitation rate and liquid water content in the hurricane: measurement and model criteria for prescription of a variable moisture climate

Robert A. Black, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. Hallett

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (763.6 kB)

5:15 PM

7B.8

Variability of tornadoes induced by U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, J. A. Curry, and B. A. Miller

Recorded presentation

7A

Global dynamics and processes - II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, Univ. of California Davis

Papers:

3:30 PM

7A.1

Decadal variability in surface solar irradiance observed in the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget data set

Laura M. Hinkelman, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. W. Stackhouse Jr., S. J. Cox, and T. Zhang

Recorded presentation

3:45 PM

7A.2

Characterizing warm-ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective

Andrew M. Chiodi, NOAA/PMEL/JISAO, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

7A.3

Dynamical Self-Organization Processes for NAO

Hong-Li Ren, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and F. F. Jin and J. S. Kug

Recorded presentation

7A.4

The Influence of ENSO on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in South America

4:15 PM

7A.4A

Impact of the Arctic Oscillation on ENSO-precipitation teleconnections across the eastern USA

Dagmar Budikova, Illinois State University, Normal, IL

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

7A.5

Observed and simulated influence of rainy-region SST on the tropical upper tropospheric humidity (UTH)

Hui-Wen Chuang, Univerisity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and X. Huang

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

7A.6

Variability in Meridional Overturning Circulation and Thermohaline Structure Detected From Argo/GTSPP/MOODS/OSCAR Data

Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. C. Sun and C. Fan

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

5:15 PM

7A.7

The ENSO signal in stratospheric temperatures from radiosonde observations

Melissa Free, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded presentation

5:30 PM

7A.8

Relationship between sea Ice, land surface temperature, and vegetation in the Arctic coastal zone

Uma Bhatt, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and D. Walker, M. Raynolds, and J. Comiso

5:45 PM

7A.9

SCALE AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF AN UNUSUALLY PROLONGED AND A MODERATELY EXTREME BLOCKING EVENT LEADING TO HEAT WAVE IN GULF OF ALASKA DURING AUGUST 2004

Athar Hussain, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo

Joint Session 2

Applications of artificial learning techniques in climate variability, especially as it relates to the urban environment

Location: Room 125A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Seventh Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )

Cochairs: William W. Hsieh, Univ. of British Columbia; Sue Ellen Haupt, Penn State Univ.

Papers:

8:30 AM

J2.1

(Invited Speaker) Using Neural Networks in Numerical Climate and Weather Forecast Systems

Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, NCEP/NWS/NOAA (SAIC), Camp Springs, MD

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

J2.2

Fast neural network emulations of long wave radiation for the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model: seasonal prediction and climate simulation

Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, NCEP/NWS/NOAA (SAIC), Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Fox-Rabinovitz, S. J. Lord, Y. T. Hou, and A. A. Belochitski

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J2.3

Major Influences of Circulation Patterns on Temperatures in the Italian Side of the Greater Alpine Region: an Investigation via Neural Network Modeling

Antonello Pasini, CNR, Rome, Italy; and R. Langone

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (234.2 kB)

9:15 AM

J2.4

Statistical seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in winter over Canada

Zhen Zeng, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Shabbar

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

J2.5

Post-processing GCM forecasts of seasonal extreme climate using machine learning methods

Joel Finnis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh, Z. Zeng, A. Shabbar, W. Merryfield, and H. Lin

Recorded presentation

8A

Prediction of climate on seasonal to decadal timescales

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

8:30 AM

8A.1

A filtered model of convectively coupled waves associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Alex Omar Gonzalez, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. Schubert and M. T. Masarik

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

8A.2

Role of stochastic forcing in ENSO variability in a coupled GCM

Atul Kapur, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang and J. Zavala-Garay

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

9:00 AM

8A.3

Characterizing the Space-Time Modes of Instability Propagation at the Global Scale in a 16-year GCM Simulation

Kun Tao, Duke University, Durham, NC; and A. P. Barros

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

8A.4

Do extratropical stormtracks substantially feed back on the response to ENSO ?

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin

9:30 AM

8A.5

El Niño signal in American midwest precipitation

Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Matrosova

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM

8A.6

A multi-model comparison of low-level circulation and precipitation variability in U.S. CLIVAR idealized SST experiments

Scott Weaver, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Schubert and H. Wang

Recorded presentation

8B

Observed changes in climate

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:

8:30 AM

8B.1

Removing ENSO-related variations from the climate record

Gilbert P. Compo, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO ; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

8B.2

Is climate change inducing a more volatile climate?

Peter Dailey, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and G. Zuba and I. M. Dima

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

8B.3

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to global warming

Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Seager, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, and M. Cane

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~krisk/

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (291.7 kB)

9:15 AM

8B.4

North Atlantic warming: Patterns of long-term trend and multidecadal variability

Igor Polyakov, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and V. Alexeev, U. Bhatt, E. Polyakova, and X. Zhang

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

8B.5

Spatial and temporal trends in Arctic temperature climate data records

Sheldon D. Drobot, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

8B.6

Long-term variability of the East Asian summer precipitation

10:00 AM

8B.6A

Homogenizing the Russian Federation upper air climate record by adjusting radiosonde temperatures and dew points for instrument changes

Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (670.3 kB)

Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

Location: Phoenix Convention Center

9A

Prediction of climate on seasonal to decadal timescales - II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

10:30 AM

9A.1

Can large scale climate controls help predict seasonal tornado activity?

Brittany L. Perrin, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. Hughes and A. R. Lupo

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (587.2 kB)

10:45 AM

9A.2

Predictibility of seasonal and interannual variability from the long term trend: Defining the climate state

Dan C. Collins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. A. Unger and E. A. O'Lenic

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

9A.3

NAEFS/GEFS extended forecast

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, D. Hou, M. Peña, Q. Zhang, and J. Gottschalck

11:15 AM

9A.4

Seasonal prediction with CCSM3.0: Role and dynamics of circulation regimes

David M. Straus, George Mason University, Beltsville, MD; and D. Paolino

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (3.0 MB)

11:30 AM

9A.5

Decadal predictability of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

Grant Branstator, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Teng

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

9A.6

North pacific gyre oscillation synchronizes climate fluctuations in the eastern and western north pacific

Lina I. Ceballos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo, N. Schneider, and C. D. Hoyos

9B

Observed changes in climate - II

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:

10:30 AM

9B.1

Snowfall changes in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains

John Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. J. Hnilo

10:45 AM

9B.2

A Practical Guide for Detecting Abrupt Changes in Time Series

Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM

9B.3

On improving NOAA's climate normals: an introduction to ‘optimal normals' of temperature

Anthony Arguez, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. S. Vose

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (322.2 kB)

11:15 AM

9B.4

Inferring Significance of Trend and Adaptive Detrending of Complex Climate Time Series

Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Gao and J. Hu

11:30 AM

9B.5

False spring occurrence over the southeastern United States, 1901 – 2007

Garrett P. Marino, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and D. Kaiser

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

9B.6

Observed and Modeled Surface-based Temperature Inversions in Alaska: Trends and Variability

Stefanie M. Bourne, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and U. S. Bhatt, J. Zhang, and R. Thoman

Exhibits Open

Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)

Joint Panel Discussion 3

Developing a National Climate Service

Location: Room 121A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Policy and Socio—Economic Research; and the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Moderator: Phillip A. Pasteris, Global Water Resources

Panelists: Chet Koblinsky, NOAA CPO; Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona; Philip W. Mote, Univ. of Washington; Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center

Papers:

1:30 PM

Moderator Overview

Phillip A. Pasteris, Global Water Resources, Portland, OR

Recorded presentation

Joint Session 3

Distributed Earth Science Information Systems

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 25th Conference on International Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology )

Cochairs: Nancy Soreide, NOAA/PMEL; Kenneth Carey, Noblis

Papers:

J3.1

An Advanced Next Generation Archival and Distribution System for Global Atmospheric Science Research

1:45 PM

J3.2

A distributed information and architecture system for integrating operational data and product providers into the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)

Ronald P. Lowther, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Bellevue, NE; and M. Brill, B. Puetz, and M. Mayorga

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

J3.3

Compression and Relay Management System as Applied to Gridded FX-Net, and an Update on Wavelet Compression

Jebb Q. Stewart, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and N. Wang, E. Polster, and S. Schranz

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (32.9 kB)

2:15 PM

J3.4

Online Visualization and Analysis of Global Half-hourly Pixel-Resolution Infrared Dataset

Zhong Liu, George Mason University/CSISS, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Ostrenga, G. G. Leptoukh, and A. V. Mehta

http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/hurricane/trmm_quikscat_analysis.shtml

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1015.8 kB)

10

Prediction of climate on seasonal to decadal timescales - III

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:

1:30 PM

10.1

Decadal Climate Information for Water Management Applications

Kathy Jacobs, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; and L. Goddard

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

10.2

A comparison of high frequency climate of the 20th century IPCC model runs to observations

Justin J. Hnilo, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Christy

2:00 PM

10.3

Seasonal prediction of Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activity

Kevin H. Goebbert, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. B. Richman

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

10.4

Improving Seasonal Predictions of Climate Variability and Water Availability at the Catchment Scale

Matthew B. Switanek, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and P. A. Troch and C. L. Castro

Recorded presentation

Poster Session 5

Climate trends and extremes

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Papers:

P5.4 has been moved to new paper 8B.6A

P5.1

Climate change in the sub-antarctic: an illustration from Heard Island

Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

http://www.weather-climate.com

Poster PDF (456.1 kB)

P5.2

Comparison of precipitation change estimates across the U.S. - Canadian border

Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight and D. R. Easterling

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

P5.3

Trends in the variability of daily high temperatures in the Southeast

Walter Martin, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and T. Hoffman, C. Helm, and C. Fugle

P5.5

Variations and trends in extreme cold airmasses over northern North America

Isaac E. Hankes, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. E. Walsh

P5.6

Perspectives on temperature trends and variability from the first U.S. climate reference network stations

Anthony Arguez, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. H. Lawrimore

Poster PDF (32.4 kB)

P5.7

Analysis of expected change of extreme climate indices in the Carpathian basin by 2071-2100

Rita Pongrácz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy and P. Szabó

Poster PDF (304.7 kB)

P5.8

Changes in freezing rain patterns in the South Central United States

Timothy A. Bonin, National Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates, Valparaiso, IN; and D. S. Arndt

Poster PDF (546.0 kB)

P5.9

Tornado frequency and its large-scale environments over Ontario, Canada

Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and H. Cai

http://extended abstract

Poster PDF (162.3 kB)

P5.10

An examination of the long-term variability of frost-free season in the Contiguous United States

Jose Maliekal, The College at Brockport, Brockport, NY; and N. Damyanov

P5.11

The exponential increase in anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide and its relation to human population growth

David J. Hofmann, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (167.4 kB)

Poster Session 6

Seasonal-interannual variability

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Papers:

P6.1

Surface energy budget and boundary layer cloud development over the United States Mid-Atlantic region

Cassie A. Stearns, Howard University, Beltsville, MD; and E. L. Joseph, J. D. Fuentes, M. L. Robjhon, G. A. Davis, M. Adam, and T. Dejene

P6.2

Climatic Variability and Its Trend Over Different Regions of Bangladesh

Mohammad Shohrab Hossain Sarker, vrije Universiteit Brussel Belgium, London, United Kingdom

P6.3

Northward propagation of the subseasonal variability over the eastern Pacific warm pool

Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser

P6.4

A climatology of apparent temperature

Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO; and B. P. Walawender

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

P6.5

Seasonal variation of the atmospheric component of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Catrin M. Mills, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. E. Walsh

P6.6

Diurnal and seasonal wind variability for selected stations in central and northern california climate regions

Charles J. Fisk, Naval Base Ventura County, Point Mugu, CA

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Joint Session 5

Geographic Effects on Urban Weather and Climate

Location: Room 126A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes; the Timothy R. Oke Symposium; the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Fourth Symposium on Policy and Socio—Economic Research; the Eighth Symposium on the Urban Environment; the 23rd Conference on Hydrology; and the Fourth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data )

Chair: William T. Thompson, NRL

Papers:

4:00 PM

J5.1

Assessing sea breeze and heat island interactions using coastal-urban mesoscale ensembles

Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Pullen

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

J5.2

Urban effects on Sea Breeze Circulation over Huston, TX

Kazuyuki Ota, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and U. S. Nair, W. A. Petersen, L. D. Carey, and T. E. Nobis

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

J5.3

Variable impacts and differential response to flash flooding in the Paso del Norte metroplex (El Paso, Texas, USA / Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico)

Thomas E. Gill, University of Texas, El Paso, TX; and T. W. Collins and D. J. Novlan

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (260.3 kB)

5:00 PM

J5.4

Modeling and forecasting lee side spillover precipitation resulting in major flooding in an urban valley location

Michael L. Kaplan, DRI, Reno, NV; and P. J. Marzette, C. S. Adaniya, K. C. King, and S. J. Underwood

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

5:15 PM

J5.5

The evolution of lake-effect clouds and snow across Lake Michigan

Faye E. Barthold, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich

Poster PDF (172.9 kB)

11A

Climate Change Science Program Report 3.3

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

Papers:

4:00 PM

11A.1

CCSP 3.3: why weather and climate extremes matter

Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. M. Anderson, S. J. Cohen, M. Cortez-Vazquez, R. J. Murnane, C. Parmesan, D. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, and J. M. R. Stone

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (20.1 kB)

4:15 PM

11A.2

CCSP 3.3: observed changes in weather and climate extremes

Kenneth Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and P. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. V. Douglas, D. R. Easterling, K. A. Emanuel, P. Y. Groisman, G. J. Holland, T. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. Komar, D. Levinson, and R. L. Smith

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

11A.3

CCSP 3.3: Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes

William J. Gutowski Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and G. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. O. Mearns, R. J. Stouffer, P. J. Webster, M. F. Wehner, and F. W. Zwiers

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

11A.4

CCSP3.3: Measures to improve our understanding of weather and climate extremes

David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. J. Cohen, W. J. Gutowski Jr., G. J. Holland, K. E. Kunkel, R. S. Pulwarty, and M. F. Wehner

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (16.8 kB)

11B

Seasonal-interannual variability - I

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Juliane Fry, Reed College

Papers:

4:15 PM

11B.1

Dry and wet periods in the Northwestern Maghreb for present day and future climate conditions

Andreas H. Fink, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and M. Christoph, K. Born, and H. Paeth

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

11B.2

The climate of 2008 in historical perspective

Richard Heim, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and K. Gleason, K. Shein, A. Sanchez-Lugo, M. J. Brewer, and E. Godfrey

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (728.9 kB)

5:00 PM

11B.3

The 2007/08 La Nina Cycle: Evolution and Prediction

Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Huang, W. Wang, A. Kumar, P. Pegion, and M. LHeureux

Recorded presentation

5:15 PM

11B.4

Seasonal climate variability resulting from extreme Arctic ridging during a major reconfiguration of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation from late November to early December 2007

Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded presentation

5:30 PM

11B.5

A new and improved Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)

Klaus Wolter, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. Timlin

Recorded presentation

Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center)

AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Location: Northballroom (Phoenix Convention Center)

12B

Climate and weather extremes

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

Papers:

8:30 AM

12B.1

Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at first order stations in the U.S

Tamara G. Houston, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. Changnon

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (121.9 kB)

8:45 AM

12B.2

The frequency distribution of daily precipitation over the United States

Emily J. Becker, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery and R. W. Higgins

9:00 AM

12B.3

Seasonal and regional variations of U.S. trends in extreme precipitation frequency

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. A. Palecki, R. Smith, L. Ensor, and D. R. Easterling

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

12B.4

Signal detectability in extreme precipitation changes assessed from twentieth century climate simulations

Seung-Ki Min, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, P. Friederichs, and A. Hense

http://www.springerlink.com/content/rv470641v6222257/

9:30 AM

12B.5

Diagnosing the synoptic influences driving changes in climate extremes over southern Australia during the last century

Lisa V. Alexander, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia

Recorded presentation

12A

Seasonal-interannual variability II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

Papers:

12A.1

Observed Responses of Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature to ENSO

9:00 AM

12A.2

Assessing climate model simulations of storm track variability

Xiaoming Xia, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

12A.3

Interannual variability of the west coast cyclone landfall and its influence on the western U.S. winter precipitation

Yi Deng, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and B. Myoung

9:30 AM

12A.4

Climatology of warm season precipitating storms in the southern Great Plains

Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and X. Li

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (188.2 kB)

9:45 AM

12A.5

Long-term variations in intensity and location of the African Easterly Jet

Amin K. Dezfuli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL ; and S. Nicholson

Poster PDF (100.5 kB)

Poster Session 7

Regional climate modeling

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Papers:

P7.1

Characteristics of extreme rainfall in downscaled climate model data over the Northeastern United States

Lee M. Tryhorn, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. DeGaetano

P7.2

Sensitivity of the mid-21st century cold season hydroclimate in California to global warming: An RCM projection based on NCAR CCSM3 projection and SRES-A1B emission scenarios

Jinwon Kim, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Chao, A. Eldering, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. N. Liou, J. C. McWilliams, D. E. Waliser, and S. Kapnick

P7.3

The effects of aerosol on regional climate

Hui Du, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and B. Weare

P7.4

Changes in summertime precipitation over the US due to climate change as simulated by the WRF model

Melissa S. Bukovsky, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Karoly

P7.5

Simulating high elevation snowpack: The impact of snow albedo and multi-layer snow treatment

Jinwon Kim, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, Y. Xue, A. Hall, K. N. Liou, S. Kapnick, and F. De Sale

P7.6

CCSM/WRF Regional climate simulations of extreme hydrologic events in Central America

Alex C. Ruane, NASA/GISS and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, New York, NY; and C. Rosenzweig and R. M. Horton

P7.7

Lessons and pitfalls in archiving large datasets -- the NARCCAP experience

Seth A. McGinnis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. O. Mearns and L. R. McDaniel

P7.8

Large-scale environmental characteristics of severe weather environments in the NARCCAP simulations of current and future climate

James Correia Jr., PNNL, Richland, WA ; and R. Leung

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (See poster listing in Wednesday's program)

Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center)

13A

Regional climate modeling, especially with urban applications

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Raymond Arritt, Iowa State

Papers:

11:00 AM

13A.1

Development of a high-resolution coupled regional climate model in the Atlantic sector for climate change studies

R. Saravanan, Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. S. Hsieh, P. Chang, H. Seidel, and G. Creager

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

13A.2

Improving regional climate change projections of temperature for Halifax, Nova Scotia via statistical downscaling

Lee Titus, Environment Canada/Dalhousie University, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and R. Greatbatch, I. Folkins, and J. Sheng

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (429.2 kB)

11:30 AM

13A.3

Regional climate model experiments for the Carpathian basin

Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongrácz, C. Torma, I. Pieczka, and A. Hunyady

Poster PDF (449.2 kB)

11:45 AM

13A.4

Regional and decadal analysis of climate change induced extreme hydrometeorological stresses informs adaptation and mitigation policies

Auroop R. Ganguly, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and E. S. Parish, N. Singh, K. Steinhaeuser, D. J. Erickson, M. Branstetter, A. W. King, and E. J. Middleton

http://www.ornl.gov/sci/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming/

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (34.7 kB)

13B

Climate and weather extremes - II

Location: Room 129B (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

11:00 AM

13B.1

Climate variability on intraseasonal time scales: Severe cold and record-breaking rains in Mexico and disruptive wild fires in California in late October 2007

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and H. M. Archambault and J. M. Cordeira

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

13B.2

Increasing trend of extreme rain events over Bangkok Metropolitan area

Sangchan Limjirakan, Environmental Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University, Pathumwan, Bangkok, Thailand; and A. Limsakul and T. Sriburi

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (576.0 kB)

13B.3

The Extreme Cold Anomaly over Southeast Asia in February 2008:

11:45 AM

13B.4

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center -- resources regarding climate and weather extremes

J. Neal Lott, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Heim

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

Joint Session 6

Urban Implications of Climate Change and Population Growth

Location: Room 121A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Policy and Socio—Economic Research; the 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Urban Environment )

Chair: Genevieve E. Maricle, Arizona State Univ.

Papers:

11:00 AM

J6.1

Impact of global climate change on central European cities

Wilhelm Kuttler, Univ. of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany; and S. Weber

11:15 AM

J6.2

Impacts of Rapid Development of Urban Environment on City Weather Services in the Shanghai Region

Xu Tang Sr., Shanghai Meteorological Regional Center, CMA, China, Shanghai, China

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

J6.3

Modeling global climate change in urban areas

Keith Oleson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Feddema, T. Jackson, G. Bonan, O. Wilhelmi, and J. Boehnert

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

J6.4

Climate Change Scenarios for the New York Metropolitan Region

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA/GISS and the Columbia Earth Institute, New York, NY; and R. M. Horton

Recorded presentation

12:00 PM

J6.5

Scales of perception: public awareness of neighborhood and regional temperature differences

Darren M. Ruddell, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and S. L. Harlan, S. Grossman-Clarke, and G. Chowell

Recorded presentation

Exhibits Open

Hollingsworth Symp Luncheon

Location: Room 131AB (Phoenix Convention Center)

Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)

14

Regional climate modeling - II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Ruby Leung, PNNL

Papers:

1:30 PM

14.1

Surface and free-air lapse rates in the Cascade Mountains of Washington

Philip W. Mote, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. D. Lundquist and J. R. Minder

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

14.2

Assessing the sensitivity of Western U.S. mountain snowfall to future climate temperature

John Horel, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Jones

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

14.3

Regional Climate Change Modeling in High Resolution for Central and Eastern Europe in Project CECILIA

Tomas Halenka, Charles Univ., Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Belda and J. Miksovsky

Recorded presentation

2:15 PM

14.4

Constraining future Projections for Temperature Extremes at local scale

Xuebin Zhang, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers

Recorded presentation

15

Regional modeling - NARCCAP

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Linda O. Mearns, NCAR

Papers:

2:30 PM

15.1

The North American regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP): overview of phase II results

Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

15.2

Assessing uncertainty in regional climate experiments

Stephan R. Sain, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

Coffee Break and Exhibit Hall Raffle

Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center)

16

Regional modeling - NARCCAP Part II

Location: Room 129A (Phoenix Convention Center)

Sponsor: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Linda O. Mearns, NCAR

Papers:

3:30 PM

16.1

ENSO precipitation skill in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA

3:45 PM

16.2

Simulations of regional, extreme monthly precipitation by the NARCCAP RCMs

William J. Gutowski Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and L. O. Mearns, R. Arritt, S. Biner, D. Caya, D. Flory, R. Jones, R. Laprise, R. Leung, W. Moufouma-Okia, A. Nunez, Y. Qian, J. Roads, L. Sloan, M. Snyder, and G. Takle

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

16.3

Analysis of the NARCCAP WRF Simulations of Cold Season Extreme Precipitation Events

L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Y. Qian

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

16.4

Changes of Climate and Hydrological Cycle in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Er Lu, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. S. Takle, M. Jha, and T. NARCCAP-Team

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

16.5

Characteristics of Wind Speeds over the US from 1982-2004 as Simulated by Regional Climate Models

Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and S. C. Pryor, R. J. Barthelmie, T. Andersen, and T. NARCCAP-Team

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

16.6

Dynamical Downscaling of Short-Term Climate Fluctuations

Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

AMS 89th Annual Meeting Adjourns

: 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Saturday, 10 January 2009

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2009

Sunday, 11 January 2009

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

Monday, 12 January 2009

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

8:30 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 12 January 2009

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2009

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

Tuesday, 13 January 2009

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

11:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

3:30 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Wednesday, 14 January 2009

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

11:00 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2009

Thursday, 15 January 2009

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

8:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

11:00 AM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

1:30 PM-2:15 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

5:15 PM-5:20 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2009

Saturday, 10 January 2009

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2009

Sunday, 11 January 2009

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2009

Monday, 12 January 2009

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

8:30 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 12 January 2009

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 12 January 2009

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2009

Tuesday, 13 January 2009

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

11:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2009