11th Symposium on Global Change Studies (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 9 January 2000
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration
 
9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration
 
Monday, 10 January 2000
7:30 AM, Monday
Conference Registration Continues through Friday, 14 January
 
9:00 AM-1:30 PM, Monday
Session 1 Agency Research Programs in the 21st Century
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
9:00 AM1.1Status, progress, and plans for the USGCRP  
Robert W. Corell, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA
9:30 AM1.2Status, progress, and future plans for NOAA's Global Change related programs  
J. Michael Hall, NOAA, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD
10:00 AMCoffee Break  
10:30 AM1.3NASA's Studies of Global Change: Progress,Opportunities, and Challenges  
Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Office of Earth Systems, Washington, DC
11:00 AM1.4Status, progress, and future plans for DOE's Global Change related programs  
Aristides A. Patrinos, U.S. Department of Energy, Germantown, MD
11:30 AM1.5EPA's Global Change Research Program: Assessing the potential consequences of global change on the United States  
Joel D. Scheraga, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC
12:00 PMLunch Break  
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday
Session 2 IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 1 (Parallel with Session 3)
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
1:30 PM2.1Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling  
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis
1:45 PM2.2Simulated climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries  
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Arblaster
2:00 PM2.3Can a combination of internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing account for the observed global warming of the early 20th century?  
Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. R. Knutson
2:15 PM2.4Projections of Climate Forcing by Sulfate, Organic Aerosols, Dust, and Sea Salt: Results from the IPCC Model Intercomparison Workshop  
Joyce E. Penner, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and Y. Zhang
2:30 PM2.5Uncertainties in climate system properties and anthropogenic aerosol forcings based on climate change detection methods  
Chris E. Forest, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. R. Allen, P. H. Stone, and A. P. Sokolov
2:45 PM2.6A regional climate change projection over East Asia  
Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nozawa, A. Numaguti, and I. Uno
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday
Session 3 Societal Impacts and Climate Assessments (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts) (Parallel with Session 2)
Organizer: David Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
1:30 PM3.1Long-term fluctuations in hail incidences in the United States  
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and S. A. Changnon
1:45 PM3.2Regional impacts and adaptation: new challenges for climate change reporting and synthesis  
Stewart J. Cohen, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada
2:00 PM3.3Development of an index to monitor extreme weather-climate impacts in the United States  
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL; and G. J. D. Hewings and R. A. Pielke
2:15 PM3.4Ten-year U.S. regional climate simulations for impact assessments  
Zaitao Pan, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and J. H. Christensen, R. W. Arritt, W. J. Gutowski, and E. S. Takle
2:30 PM3.5Combining Paleoclimatic Evidence and GCMS by Means of Data Assimilation Through Upscaling and Nudging (Datun)  
Hans von Storch, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany; and U. Cubasch, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. M. Jones, R. Voss, M. Widmann, and E. Zorita
2:45 PM3.6Overlooked issues in the U.S. national climate and IPCC assessments  
Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
 
3:00 PM, Monday
1 Coffee Break
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday
Session 4 U. S. National Assessment
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:30 PM4.1The U.S. National Assessment: An Overview  
Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:45 PM4.2Statistical and dynamical downscaling of global model output for U.S. National Assessment hydrological analyses  
William J. Gutowski Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Wilby, L. E. Hay, C. J. Anderson, R. W. Arritt, M. P. Clark, G. H. Leavesley, Z. Pan, R. Silva, and E. S. Takle
4:00 PM4.3The issue of spatial scale in integrated assessments: an example of agriculture in the Southeastern U.S  
Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Carbone, W. Gao, L. McDaniel, E. Tsvetsinskaya, B. McCarl, and R. Adams
4:15 PM4.4Comparison of GCM-projected daily maximum and minimum temperature for the Great Lakes Region  
Julie A. Winkler, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and J. A. Andresen, G. Guentchev, J. A. Picardy, and E. A. Waller
4:30 PM4.5A synoptic assessment of climate change model output: explaining the differences and similarities between the Canadian and Hadley Climate Models  
Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
4:45 PM4.6Gauging impacts of climate change on the Pacific Northwest using observed climate variations  
Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Hamlet, N. Mantua, and E. Miles
5:00 PM4.7Assessment of Potential Effects of Climate Change on Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms Near Lake Erie  
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. E. Westcott and D. A. R. Kristovich
5:15 PM4.8Trends in spring snow cover retreat over the U.S. and the effect of observation time bias  
Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Sun and R. R. Heim
 
5:00 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
 
5:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the day
 
7:30 PM, Monday
Fujita Banquet
 
Tuesday, 11 January 2000
8:15 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday
Session 5 IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 2 (Parallel with Session 6)
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:15 AM5.1Variations in the snow melt onset date derived from passive microwave data  
Sheldon D. Drobot, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson
8:30 AM5.2Spaceborne climate change monitoring by GNSS occultation sensors  
Gottfried Kirchengast, Univ. of Graz, Graz, Austria; and A. K. Steiner, U. Foelsche, L. Kornblueh, E. Manzini, and L. Bengtsson
8:45 AM5.3Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes  
Susanna Corti, CINECA, Casalecchio di Reno, Bologna, Italy; and F. Molteni and T. N. Palmer
9:00 AM5.4Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Global Warming Using Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent  
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. E. Walsh, C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, and V. F. Zakharov
9:15 AM5.5Global Warming Potentials Modified for Water Interference in the Atmosphere  
W. F. J. Evans, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin and T. Ogawa
9:30 AM5.6On the Morphology of Cloud Absorption: Preferential Attenuation of Near Infrared Solar Radiation  
L. C. McCormick, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin and W. F. J. Evans
9:45 AM5.7Estimating the roles of radiation and dynamics in the climate system's equilibrium response to enhanced greenhouse forcing  
J. Ray Bates, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
 
8:45 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday
Session 6 Policy Responses to the 1997/1998 El Nino: Implications for Forecast Value (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts)(Parallel with Session 5)
Organizer: Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:45 AM6.1Winners and Losers: The Impacts of El Niño 1997-98  
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL
9:00 AM6.2Media Coverage of El Nino: The Rise of a Signal Event  
Lee Wilkins, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO
9:15 AM6.3Policy responses to the 1997/1998 El Niño: Implications for forecast value and the future of climate services  
Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO
9:30 AM6.4Who Used and Benefitted From the El Niño Forecasts?  
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL
9:45 AM6.5The Scientific Issues Arising from El Niño 1997-98  
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL
 
10:00 AM, Tuesday
1 Coffee Break (Exhibit Hours 10:00 a.m.-2:15 p.m.)
 
10:30 AM-11:15 AM, Tuesday
1 WALTER ORR ROBERTS LECTURE IN INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE (Special President's Symposium on Environmental Applications) Speaker: R. E. (Ted) Munn, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Title: Emerging Environmental Issues: A Global Perspective
 
11:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday
1 WMO PRESENTATION (Special President's Symposium on Environmental Applications) Title: Meteorology and the Environment-The WMO Perspective Speaker: John W. Zillman, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
 
12:15 PM-2:15 PM, Tuesday
1 Conference Luncheon (Speaker: D. James Baker, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, Administrator for NOAA, Silver Spring, MD)
 
2:15 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday
Session 7 Weather and Climate Extremes
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
2:15 PM7.1Climate Extremes: Introductory Remarks  
Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
2:30 PM7.2Observed Variability and Trends in Climate Extremes  
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:00 PM7.3Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Projections of Future Climate Change  
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PMCoffee Break  
4:00 PM7.4Trends in Impacts of Weather and Climate Extremes  
Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:30 PM7.5Observations of Biotic Response in Wild Species to Current Climate Change  
Camille Parmesan, University of Texas, Austin, TX
5:00 PM7.6Government Policies Pretaining to Weather and Climate Extremes  
Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL
 
5:15 PM, Tuesday
Oral Sessions end for the day
 
5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Tuesday
Poster Session 1 Global Change
 P1.1Data rescue at the National Climatic Data Center  
Stephen R. Doty, Doty Data Services under contract with the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Asheville, NC; and J. D. Elms
 P1.2Cloud Type Radiative Effects from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project  
Ting Chen, Columbia University, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow and Y. Zhang
 P1.3Investigation of the sensitivity of global oceans to continental runoff using the PCM parallel climate model  
Marcia L. Branstetter, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. S. Famiglietti, A. P. Craig, and W. M. Washington
 P1.4Micrometeorological conditions at the Forest-Atmosphere Carbon Transfer and Storage (FACTS-II) Aspen FACE facility in northern Wisconsin  
Warren E. Heilman, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and R. M. Teclaw and J. E. Eenigenburg
 P1.5On the impacts of weather and climate variability and change in agricultural production and prices: cold surges and their impact on the coffee growing industry in Southern and southeastern Brazil  
Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil
 P1.6Carbon budget at tropical forest in the Amazon region  
Gilberto Fisch, Centro Tecnico Aeroespacial, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; and R. Ferreira da Costa, A. R. Pereira, A. D. Culf, Y. Malhi, C. A. Nobre, and A. D. Nobre
 P1.7Multiple AGCM Hindcasts of 1969-1998  
Kathryn P. Shah, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and D. Rind
 P1.8The seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Basin hurricane activity  
Grant Johnston, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo
 P1.9A Study of the Effect of La Niña on the Weather of U.S. Cities  
Susan F. Wood, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and A. M. Siegrist
 P1.10A Study of the Effect of El Niño on the Weather of U.S. Cities  
Susan F. Wood, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and M. J. Ledridge
 P1.11Development of latitudinal land and sea temperature indices for climate monitoring  
Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. Basist and R. G. Quayle
 P1.12Development of a new U.S. Climate Atlas  
Marc S. Plantico, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and L. A. Goss, C. Daly, and G. Taylor
 P1.13International Station Meteorological Summary (ISMCS) Windows, Version 1.0  
M. Lawrence Nicodemus, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and O. Brass
 P1.14Standard climatic Normals and supplemental Normals development  
Greg Hammer, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Cram
 P1.15The impact of climate change on Peak Electicity Demand In the Great Lakes Region  
George M. Albercook, Center for Environmental Policy, Economics and Science, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Khotanzad
 P1.16Seasonal changes and yearly budgets of CH4 and CO2 fluxes at lotus field in Japan (Formerly Paper 9.14)  
Yoshinobu Harazono, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Miyata, N. Ota, K. Takagi, and M. Komine
 P1.17Detection and correction of temperature inhomogeneities in the radiosonde data  
Robert E. Eskridge, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Luers, A. Holbrooks, and D. Parker
 
Wednesday, 12 January 2000
8:00 AM-4:59 PM, Wednesday
Joint Session 1 Surface/Atmosphere Interactions: Invited Session (Joint with the 15th Conference on Hydrology and 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Organizer: Yongkang Xue, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
8:00 AMJ1.1Soil Dust Modeling-Feedbacks of Dust and Climate  
Ina Tegen, Columbia Univ. and NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. Miller and J. Perlwitz
8:15 AMJ1.2Incorporating vegetation as a dynamic element in the Hadley Centre GCM  
Peter M. Cox, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom
8:45 AMJ1.3The roles of subgrid topography on land-atmosphere interactions  
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and M. S. Wigmosta
9:00 AMJ1.4Investigating the Effect of Seasonal Crop Growth on the Climate of NCAR Regional Climate Model  
Elena Tsvetsinskaya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. O. Mearns and W. E. Easterling
J1.5The importance of land surface processes for predicting climate change in the Asian monsoon area  
Hervé Douville, Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J. Polcher and P. Cox
9:14 AMJ1.5AGLOBAL CLIMATE EFFECTS OF HEATING ANOMALIES RESULTING FROM TROPICAL LANDCOVER CHANGE  
Thomas N. Chase, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Pielke, M. Zhao, A. J. Pitman, T. G. F. Kittel, R. R. Nemani, and S. W. Running
9:29 AMJ1.6A mechanism for the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall  
Guiling Wang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. A. B. Eltahir
9:44 AMJ1.7Role of natural vegetation dynamics in the Sahel drought  
Guiling Wang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. A. B. Eltahir
9:59 AMCoffee Break  
10:29 AMJ1.8Modelling the impact of land surface degradation on the climate of tropical North Africa  
Douglas B. Clark, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and Y. Xue
10:44 AMJ1.9The effect of land surface processes on the 1991 Flood Over Yangtze-Huai River Valley as Simulated From Sunya Regional Climate Model  
Wei Gong, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. C. Wang and Y. Xue
10:59 AMJ1.10Preliminary Results of the AMIP II Diagnostic Subproject 12: Implications for Modeling Coupled Atmosphere/Land Interactions  
Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA
11:29 AMJ1.11Climate Sensitivity to Land Surface Processes: An Evaluation of Three Land Surface Schemes Coupled to a Single GCM  
Andrea N. Hahmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
11:59 AMLunch Break  
1:29 PMJ1.12Land-atmosphere Interactions: Successes, Problems and Prospects  
Y. C. Sud, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Mocko
1:59 PMJ1.13Simulations with the coupled Eta/SSiB Model over South America  
Sin Chan Chou, INPE/CPTEC, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and C. A. S. Tanajura, Y. K. Xue, and C. A. Nobre
2:14 PMJ1.14Simulation of land-ocean influences on the Indian monsoon in simulations of present-day climate and at doubled carbon dioxide concentrations  
Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
2:29 PMJ1.15Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI model  
Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and S. Liess
2:44 PMJ1.16Diurnal cycle the coupled Eta/SSiB Model for El Nino and La Nina conditions over South America  
Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica, Petropolis, RJ, Brazil; and S. C. Chou, Y. K. Xue, and C. A. Nobre
2:59 PMCoffee Break  
3:29 PMJ1.17Climate drift in the coupled land-atmosphere system  
Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD
3:44 PMJ1.18Timescales of soil moisture anomalies: results from two GCMs  
Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. C. D. Milly, C. A. Schlosser, and M. J. Suarez
4:14 PMJ1.19Impacts of Surface Processes over Land and Ocean on Summer Precipitation and Subtropical High  
Guoxiong Wu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu, H. Liu, P. Liu, and W. Li
4:29 PMJ1.20Vegetation-climate interaction and Sahel climate variability  
Ning Zeng, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and W. K. M. Lau
4:44 PMJ1.21Sensitivity of GCM simulations to land surface processes  
Yongkang Xue, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. H. Juang, S. Y. Hong, M. Kanamitsu, and Y. Sud
 
8:15 AM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Session 8 Advancing Our Understanding of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: Part 1 (Parallel with Joint Session J1)
Organizer: Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/ERL, Boulder, CO
8:15 AM8.1The World Climate Programme  
Michael J. Coughlan, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
8:30 AM8.2Astronomical Effects on the Winter Climate of the Midwest  
John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling
8:45 AM8.3The Little Summer Drought (Veranico) During the Rainy Season in the Amazon Basin. General Characteristics and Variability  
Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoiera Paulista, SP, Brazil; and D. Mendes and L. Calvetti
9:00 AM8.4Interdecadal and long-term variability of precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon basin  
Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and G. Sampaio, H. Camargo, C. Castro, and M. Sanches
9:15 AM8.5Impact of the phenomenon El-Niño on the regime of precipitation in the area of the medium amazon  
David Mendes, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and J. Cohen
9:30 AM8.6Atmospheric characteristics of the Sahel summer rains and links to global SSTs  
Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. D. Bell
9:45 AM8.7Variability of All India Monsoon Rainfall  
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS
10:00 AMCoffee Break  
10:30 AM8.8Pacific-East Asian teleconnections: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?  
Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and X. Fu
10:45 AM8.9The climatology and interannual variability of the North American Monsoon as revealed by the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis  
Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. B. McKee and R. A. Pielke
11:00 AM8.10Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of United States precipitation and surface air temperature  
Wayne Higgins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Leetmaa, Y. Xue, and A. Barnston
11:15 AM8.11Interannual Variations of Summer Precipitation and Temperature in the Central United States  
Qi Hu, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. W. Lee and C. J. Hays
11:30 AM8.12The current decade-scale precipitation fluctuation in the Southern Great Plains  
Jurgen D. Garbrecht, USDA/ARS, El Reno, Oklahoma; and F. E. Rossel
11:45 AM8.13Impact of the Atlantic SST Anomalies on Russian Winter Snow Accumulation  
Hengchun Ye, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID
12:00 PMLunch Break  
 
1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday
Session 9 Advancing Our Understanding of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: Part 2 (Parallel with Joint Session J1)
Organizer: Mike Crowe, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
1:30 PM9.1Occurrence of extreme precipitation events in California and relationships with the Madden-Julian Oscillation  
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA
1:45 PM9.2The New 20-year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Raingauge Monthly Analysis  
Robert Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Huffman, P. P. Xie, B. Rudolf, A. Gruber, M. O. A. with GPCP, and J. Janowiak
2:00 PM9.3Multi-year Variability of Tropospheric Water Vapor  
Rebecca J. Ross, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. X. L. Wang
2:15 PM9.4Upper tropospheric water vapor observations and modeling-a summary of recent progress  
John J. Bates, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and Z. Bergen and D. Jackson
2:30 PM9.5The sensitivity of ocean responses to wind forcing in the tropical Pacific  
Xiaosu Xie, California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu
2:45 PM9.6On the detection of the 1 to 2 week subtropical jets over the South Pacific during November 1986-April 1987  
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PM9.7World Weather Research Program  
Frederic Delsol, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
3:45 PM9.8Is El Nino changing?  
D. E. Harrison, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and N. K. Larkin
4:00 PM9.9Localized North Pacific decadal variability  
Mathew A. Barlow, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY
9.10Climate assessment of Indo-Pacific Region during 1997-98  
William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. H. Wu
4:15 PM9.11Changes in Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Internal Variability Associated with ENSO  
Arun Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Barnston, P. Peng, M. P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard
4:30 PM9.12The heat sources and sinks of the 1986-87 El Nino  
De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO
4:45 PM9.13The interannual variability of blocking on a global scale  
Jason M. Wiedenmann, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo
5:00 PM9.14Paper moved to Poster Session P1, Paper number P1.16  
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday
Session 10 IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 3 (Parallel with Joint Session J1)
Organizer: David Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:30 PM10.1Upper Air Temperature Variations and Change  
John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL
3:45 PM10.2Multi-decadal Changes in the Vertical Temperature Structure of the Tropical Troposphere  
Dian J. Gaffen, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and B. D. Santer, J. S. Boyle, J. R. Christy, N. E. Graham, and R. J. Ross
4:00 PM10.3Tropical atmospheric and oceanic temperature variations (1979)  
John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. E. Parker, S. J. Brown, I. Macadam, and M. Stendel
4:15 PM10.4The Relationship Between Surface and the Lower Troposphere Anomalies  
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. R. Christy
4:30 PM10.5Paper moved to Poster Session P1, Paper number P1.17  
4:45 PM10.5aClimate Model Projections of the 21st Century for the U.S. National Assessment  
Benjamin S. Felzer, UCAR, Boulder, CO
5:00 PM10.6Pan Evaporation Trends in Dry and Humid Regions of the U.S  
Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson and P. Y. Groisman
5:15 PM10.7A centennial-scale climate-change anomaly over a small region  
Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
 
5:30 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day
 
6:00 PM, Wednesday
Reception (Cash Bar)
 
7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet
 
Thursday, 13 January 2000
8:00 AM-1:29 PM, Thursday
Session 11 IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 4 (Parallel with Sessions 12, JP3, and J4)
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:00 AM11.1Heavy rainfall and convective cloudiness changes as indicators of intensification of the hydrological cycle  
Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCAR Project Scientist at NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Sun
8:15 AM11.2Trends in temperature, humidity, and summertime extreme heat in China  
Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Gaffen
8:30 AM11.3A Preliminary Examination of Regional Climate Trends in Atlantic Canada  
Cindy N. Vallis, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and N. Frigault
8:45 AM11.4Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperatures over Canada  
B. R. Bonsal, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang, L. A. Vincent, and W. D. Hogg
9:00 AM11.5Climate Change Indices Derived from Daily In Situ Data  
Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and P. Y. Groisman, B. E. Gleason, and D. R. Easterling
9:15 AM11.6Decreasing Cloudiness Over China: An Updated Analysis Examining Additional Variables  
Dale P. Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN
9:30 AM11.7A quality assured comparison of the surface air temperature and ground surface temperature histories from two North American mid-continent boreholes  
Paul E. Todhunter, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and W. D. Gosnold, Jr.
11.8Estimating the sensitivity to climate change of the water budget of a mountain basin using a version of the Thornthwaite model  
Allan Frei, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Armstrong, M. P. Clark, and M. C. Serreze
9:44 AM11.8aContribution of North Atlantic Intermediate and Deep water Masses to the Earth’s Heat Balance  
Sydney Levitus, NODC/NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, and C. Stephens
9:59 AMCoffee Break  
10:29 AM11.9River discharge in a doubled carbon dioxide climate  
Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and S. Hagemann
10:44 AM11.10Impact of a climate change on the hydrology of the French Rhône river  
Pierre Etchevers V, Météo-France, Saint Martin d'Hères, France; and J. Noilhan, C. Golaz, E. Ledoux, E. Leblois, and C. Ottlé
10:59 AM11.11Influence of Sea Surface Temperature, Tropopheric Humidity and Lapse Rate on the Annual Cycle of Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect  
Hua Hu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu
11:14 AM11.12On the relation between complex and simple climate models  
Arthur C. Petersen, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, Netherlands
11:29 AM11.13Transient greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing of regional climate change for the continental United States  
Eric E. Small, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and L. Mearns and F. Giorgi
11:44 AM11.14Changes in Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM): Control run vs. doubled CO2  
Michelle Shing-May Dunn, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Torrence
11:59 AMLunch Break  
 
8:00 AM-1:45 PM, Thursday
Session 12 Advancing Our Understanding of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: Part 3 (Parallel with Sessions 11, 13, JP3, JP4, J5, and J6)
Organizer: Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:00 AM12.1Evaluating the performance of short-term climate forecasts  
Jeffrey A. Shorter, TASC, Inc., Reading, MA; and M. J. Gibbas, R. J. Boucher, J. D. Goldstein, and R. F. Brammer
8:15 AM12.2Interdecadal Changes in the Structure and Frequency of ENSO Mode  
Soon-Il An, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and F. F. Jin
12.3Factors controlling decadal variations in ENSO-teleconnections and seasonal climate predictions  
Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and A. Kumar
8:30 AM12.4Teleconnections and local response to tropical SST anomalies  
Hui Su, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, C. Chou, and N. Zeng
8:45 AM12.5Forecast of tropical Pacific SST and Sea Level using Markov models  
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
9:00 AM12.6Understanding the annual cycle of equatorial Pacific as a result of ocean-atmosphere-land interactions  
Xiouhua Fu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang
9:15 AM12.7An assessment of the association between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature  
Anthony J. Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth and N. C. Lau
9:30 AM12.8Anomaly Forcing in an Ensemble Regional Climate Model Simulation  
Jan F. Dutton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. J. Barron
9:45 AMCoffee Break  
10:15 AM12.9Assessment of the Utility of the Regional Climate Simulations in the Prediction of Drought  
Ana P. Barros, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and G. S. Jenkins and R. Bindlish
10:30 AM12.10Regional climate simulation of the anomalous U.S. Climate events with a variable resolution stretched grid GCM  
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Takacs and M. J. Suarez
12.11Examining interannual variability in West Africa from the NCEP reanalyses and the CCM3 for the period of 1979-1993  
Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. C. Mikovitz
12.12Climate variability and change, scale-interactions and precipitation processes in West Africa. Limitations and challenges of modeling efforts  
Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and A. Gabra
12.13Simulation of a squall line associated with an african easterly wave: sensitivity to the parameterization of convection  
M. Diop, Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale, Dakar-Yoff, Senegal; and J. F. Gueremy and J. P. Ceron
10:45 AM12.14Non-modal growth in ENSO and its interdecadal change  
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
11:00 AMLunch Break  
12:30 PM12.15The SST Anomalies Dipole in the Extratropical Pacific and Its Relationships with the ENSO Cycle  
Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and W. T. Liu and C. R. Mechoso
12:45 PM12.16Ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks in an idealized monsoon  
Chia Chou, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, H. Su, and N. Zeng
1:00 PM12.17Effects of a stochastic convective parameterization on tropical intraseasonal variability  
Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
1:15 PM12.18A study of initializations for ENSO forecast models  
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Leetmaa and M. Cane
1:30 PM12.19Interannual variations in satellite observed top-of-atmosphere longwave clear-sky radiation and consistency with diagnostics from global climate models  
Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and W. D. Braswell and D. Fitzjarrald
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday
Joint Session 4 Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part I (Invited Oral Presentations) (Joint Session with 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Organizers: Tracy Diliberty, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; Michael Goodman, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; David Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:30 AMJ4.1Can the current satellite systems observe a change in the Earth's hydrologic cycle?  
David L. Randel, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO
8:45 AMJ4.2The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)—Status, Applications, and Future Plans  
Arnold Gruber, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD
9:00 AMJ4.3Overview of Regional To Global Scale Satellite Remote Sensing of Snow Cover  
Richard L. Armstrong, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO
9:15 AMJ4.4New Results from CERES/TRMM on Tropical Radiative Fluxes  
Bruce Wielicki, NASA/LARC, Langley, VA
9:30 AMDiscussion  
 
10:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday
Joint Poster Session 3 Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part II (Joint with the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Organizers: Tracy DeLiberty, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; Michael Goodman, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL
 Student Poster Contest  
 JP3.1GPCP Global Pentad Precipitation Analysis: A 20-Year data Set Based on Gauge Observations and Satellite Estimates  
Pingping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. R. Ferraro, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, G. J. Huffman, R. F. Adler, and A. Gruber
 JP3.2A global precipitation perspective on persistent extratropical flow anomalies  
George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and D. T. Bolvin
 JP3.3TRMM-based merged precipitation analyses  
Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Huffman, D. T. Bolvin, E. Nelkin, and S. Curtis
 JP3.4SSM/I-derived global rainfall statistics and their application  
Qihang Li, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. R. Ferraro
 JP3.5Evaluation of the GPCP Rainfall Product via the Surface Reference Data Center  
J. Brad McGavock, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Greene, B. A. Gibson, and M. L. Morrissey
 JP3.6Optimal Scales for Comparing Satellite and Rain-Gauge Rainfall Estimates for Verification Purposes  
Thomas L. Bell, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. K. Kundu
 JP3.7Interannual variability of tropical precipitation as represented in satellite-based data sets  
Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Fitzjarrald, J. Roads, and E. McCaul
 JP3.8Variability of Convective Precipitation from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)  
Ye Hong, Caelum Research Corp., Rockville, MD; and C. D. Kummerow and W. S. Olson
 JP3.9Differences in satellite estimates of precipitation over the tropical East Pacific  
Wesley Berg, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
 JP3.10Large-scale Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions in the Tropics from SSM/I and TRMM TMI/PR  
William S. Olson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and Y. Hong, S. Yang, Z. S. Haddad, C. D. Kummerow, and W. K. Tao
 JP3.11Evaluation of a new technique to combined microwave and infrared satellite data for estimation of small-scale rainfall over the global tropics and subtropics  
Martin C. Todd, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and C. K. Kidd, D. R. Kniveton, T. J. Bellerby, and D. Kilham
 JP3.12A combined infrared and microwave technique for studying the diurnal variation of rainfall over Amazonia  
Andrew J. Negri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Xu, R. F. Adler, E. Anagnostou, and T. M. Rickenbach
 JP3.13Identifying the relationship of a satellite derived surface wetness with precipitation and river discharge  
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. Williams, A. Chang, R. R. Ferraro, N. Grody, and T. Ross
 JP3.14Observing the diurnal characteristics of marine stratocumulus drizzle using the TRMM microwave imager  
Thomas J. Greenwald, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
 JP3.15Typical evolution of cold cloud patterns associated with wet and dry spells over Central America during the wet season  
Malaquias Pena, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas
 JP3.16High-Resolution Space/Time Variations of Cloud Conditions from the CHANCES Data Set  
Thomas H. Vonder Haar, Science and Technology Corp. and CIRA/ Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. A. Ringerud and D. L. Reinke
JP3.17STUDY OF DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SQUALL LINES OVER THE SAHEL AND THEIR INTERACTION WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT  
Adamou Garba, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Dakar Fann, Senegal; and S. Fongang and G. Jenkins
 
1:30 PM-2:00 PM, Thursday
Joint Session 5 Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part III (Invited Oral Presentations) (Joint with 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography and 11th Symposium on Climate Change Studies)
1:30 PMJ5.1Calculating global atmospheric temperatures from the MSU, A Never Ending Story?  
John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday
Session 13 IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 5 (Parallel with Sessions 12, JP4, and J5)
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
1:30 PM13.1Effect of Optical Thickness Constraint on the Inference of Cloud Layer Overlap and Atmospheric Radiative Heating Profile from Satellite Observations  
Ting Chen, Columbia University, New York, NY; and Y. Zhang and W. B. Rossow
1:45 PM13.2Simulations of aerosol indirect effect for IPCC emission scenarios  
Catherine C. Chuang, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. E. Penner and Y. Zhang
2:00 PM13.3Cirrus cloud infrared scattering and absorption in a GCM radiative model  
Everette Joseph, Howard University, Washington, DC
2:15 PM13.4Evaluation of cloud-radiation sensitivities to alternative cloud and convection schemes  
Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and D. E. Lane
2:30 PM13.5Climate Simulation over Japan in Summer with an MRI regional climate model: Present Day and 2xCO2 Experiments  
Kazuyo Adachi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Sato, H. Sasaki, A. Noda, and S. Yukimoto
2:45 PM13.6Validation of a stochastic radiative transfer model  
Dana E. Lane, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and S. F. Iacobellis
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PM13.7Analysis of forcing methods for single-column models  
Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and D. E. Lane
3:45 PM13.8On detecting the signature of regional aerosol radiative forcing in eastern China  
Shaocai Yu, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and V. K. Saxena and Z. Zhao
4:00 PM13.9Evaluating the climatic response to changes in CO2 and solar luminosity  
Zavareh Kothavala, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. J. Oglesby and B. Saltzman
4:15 PM13.10GCM experiments to test a proposed dynamical stabilizing mechanism in the climate system  
Vladimir Alexeev, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; and J. R. Bates
4:30 PM13.11Analysis of CGCM control runs from CMIP-II  
Krishna AchutaRao, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and C. Covey
4:45 PM13.12Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments of future climate change based on IPCC SRES scenarios  
Toru Nozawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Emori, T. Takemura, T. Nakajima, A. Numaguti, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kimoto
 
2:00 PM, Thursday
Joint Session 6 Panel Discussion: NRC sub-committee report "Reconciling Temperature Observations" (Joint with 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography and 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
 
3:00 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday
Joint Poster Session 4 Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part IV (Joint 1th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
 JP4.1Calibration of the geostationary satellite water vapor channels  
Francois-Marie Breon, CIRES and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Bates and W. Rossow
 JP4.2Passive microwave observations of water vapor profiles during two ENSO events  
Clay B. Blankenship, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and T. T. Wilheit
 JP4.3Water vapor winds and their application to climate change studies  
Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and J. A. Lerner
 JP4.4Satellite-Derived Poleward Moisture Transport Over the Southern Oceans  
Cheng-Zhi Zou, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. L. Van Woert
 JP4.5Characterization and Validation of the Heat Storage Variability from TOPEX/POSEIDON at Four Oceanographic Sites  
Paulo S. Polito, JPL, California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and O. T. Sato and W. T. Liu
 JP4.6A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite-Derived Precipitable Water in the Amazon Basin  
Tracy L. DeLiberty, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and J. A. Callahan, A. R. Guillory, and G. J. Jedlovec
 JP4.7Comparison of Daily Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Fields  
Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and R. J. Suggs and S. Haines
 JP4.8Diurnal Variation of Outgoing Longwave Radiation: Preliminary Results Based on Harmonic Analysis of the ERBS Observations  
Pingping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and S. K. Yang
 JP4.9ERBE-like and ISCCP-like Outgoing Longwave Radiation from Scanner for Radiation Budget Project  
Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow and Y. Zhang
 JP4.10ERBE Scene Identification as seen by ISCCP: Results from ScaRaB Data  
Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow
 JP4.11A 20-yr TOVS radiance Pathfinder data set for climate analysis  
Darren L. Jackson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Bates
 JP4.12EOF Analysis of Zonally Averaged MSU Radiances (1979-1998)  
Grant W. Petty, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN
 JP4.13Reconciling Surface and Satellite Temperature Measurements  
Brian Soden, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ
 JP4.14A New Look at the McCann Study of the Enhanced-V Signature  
Steven J. Caruso, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and R. Rabin, D. Zaras, and J. LaDue
 JP4.15GOES-8 Visible cloud frequency composites of the convectively active Sea Breeze under stratified synoptic flow over the Florida Panhandle  
Bernadette H. Connell, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. J. Gould
 JP4.16The Use of Satellite Data in an Optimal Interpolation Assimilation Scheme  
Randall J. Alliss, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and M. E. Loftus, D. Apling, and J. Lefever
 JP4.17SUPPRESSED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN 1998  
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki-ken, Japan
 
5:00 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends
 

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