* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 13 January 2001
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Workshop Registration
Sunday, 14 January 2001
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course Registration
	9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 15 January 2001
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration Continues Through Thursday, 18 January
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Monday Session 1 Winter storms: basic research (Invited Session)
Organizer: Melvyn A. Shapiro, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM 1.1 Forecasting Heavy Precipitation in Winter Storms   Lance F. Bosart, Univ of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 9:00 AM 1.2 EXTREME WEST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENTS   Bradley R. Colman, NOAA/NWS, Seattle, WA 9:30 AM 1.3 The Washington D.C. Snowstorm of 25 January 2000: What Have We Learned from the Storm   Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
	10:00 AM, Monday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday Session 2 Winter storms: Prediction, Impacts and Responses (Invited Session)
Organizer: Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
10:30 AM 2.1 Data Assimilation: Current Status and Outlook for the Future   Thomas W. Schlatter, NOAA/ORL/FSL, Boulder, CO 11:00 AM 2.2 Societal Impacts of Weather Forecasts: A Weather Channel Perspective   Paul J. Kocin, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA 11:30 AM 2.3 Precipitation Extremes: Implications for Forecasters and Users   T. R. Stewart
	12:00 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday Poster Session 1 Winter Storms (Poster Session)
P1.1 Geography of Blizzards in the Conterminous United States, 1959–2000   Robert M. Schwartz, Kent State University, Kent, OH   P1.2 A Climatology of Heavy Snowfall Events in Northwest Missouri: The Synoptic and Dynamic Characteristics of Heavy Snowfall   Michael J. Bodner, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and P. A. Browning, A. R. Lupo, and C. L. Berger P1.3 The patterns associated with light, moderate and heavy snowfall events at Flagstaff, Arizona   Darren M. McCollum, NOAA/NWS, Bellemont, AZ P1.4 On the predictability of rainfall patterns   Geoffrey L. Austin, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and K. T. Smith P1.5 NCEP short-range model guidance for the 24–26 January 2000 east coast winter storm   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers   P1.6 Process partitioning of rainfall enhanced by coastal orography   Allen B. White, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, P. J. Neiman, D. A. Kingsmill, and P. O. G. Persson   P1.7 Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events over Canada   Xuebin Zhang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and W. D. Hogg and É. Mekis   P1.8 Modeling and Visualization of a Record Meso-Snowfall Event in Jackson, Mississippi   Paul J. Croft Jr., Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and J. Hafner, R. S. Reddy, and P. J. Fitzpatrick   P1.9 Case study and mesoscale modeling of the 28 April to 1 May 1999 heavy rain event over southeast Colorado   Paul Wolyn, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO   P1.10 The Genesee Valley Blizzard of 4 March 1999: An Analysis Of Forcing Mechanisms   Jose A. Maliekal, SUNY, Brockport, NY; and S. Rochette, J. Caughel, R. Ballentine, and A. Stamm P1.11 Effects of mountain representation and nonhydrostatic dynamics in a case of orographic precipitation   Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego   P1.12 Forecast Skill of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale Model during the heavy precipitation event of 23–24 February 1998 in Southern California   Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and L. M. V. de Carvalho, B. Bower, and D. Danielson   P1.13 Improving the Understanding and Prediction of Heavy Rain in Land-falling Pacific Winter Storms: The CALJET and PACJET Experiments   F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and D. W. Reynolds, P. O. G. Persson, W. A. Nuss, D. A. Kingsmill, Z. Toth, and W. Blier   P1.14 Orographic precipitation enhancement in the coastal mountains of California during the CALJET field experiment   Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, A. B. White, D. A. Kingsmill, P. O. G. Persson, and D. Gottas   P1.15 Predictability of the 24–25 January 2000 Snow Storm with respect to model grid resolution and initial state   Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno   P1.15a A Planetary-Scale to Mesoscale Perspective of the Predictability of the 24-26 January 2000 U.S. East-Coast Snowstorm   Melvyn Shapiro, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Langland, R. Gelaro, and F. Zhang   P1.16 The microphysical structure of extreme precipitation   Remko Uijlenhoet, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. A. Smith and M. Steiner   P1.17 Predictability of mesoscale quantitative precipitation   Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller P1.18 Diabatic Potential Vortiticity Modification, the Low-Level Jet, and Moisture Transport in Cyclones   Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC P1.19 Improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts using a new microphysical parameterization   Vanda Grubisic, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell   P1.20 Improved Rainfall Detection Using High Frequency Observations from the NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)   Ralph R. Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng   P1.21 An analysis of significant WSR-88D precipitation underestimation over the Palmer Divide: 28 April to 1 May 1999 heavy rain event   Kathleen L. Torgerson, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO P1.22 Forecast Experiments for the 24–26 January 2000 East Coast storm using the NCEP Eta Model   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin   P1.23 A Real-Time Precipitation Monitoring Algorithm—Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPE SUMS)   Jonathan J. Gourley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Zhang, R. A. Maddox, C. M. Calvert, and K. W. Howard   P1.24 Using low frequency Predictors for Downscaling to mid-latitude precipitation: two case studies in mountainous regions   Allan Frei, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO   P1.25 Application of the NCEP/EMC Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to Predicting Extreme Precipitation Events   M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du   P1.26 Choosing the Optimal Configuration of a Mixed-Physics Ensemble for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts   Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud   P1.27 Statistical Analysis of Global Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts   Sanja Perica, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake, M. Mullusky, and D. J. Seo   P1.28 Hydrologic Re-Calibration Requirements for Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts Following NWP Model Changes   John Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD   P1.29 Rainfall Assimilation and Numerical Forecast of the 25 January 2000 Snow Storm   Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and Q. Zhao, Q. Xiao, and S. Peng   P1.30 Anticipating Heavy Rainfall: Forecast Aspects   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart P1.31 A review of the scientific and operational challenges of short-range precipitation prediction over the Great Basin   W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT   P1.32 The National Precipitation Verification Unit (NPVU): Operational implementation   Brett E. McDonald, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Graziano   P1.33 Extending the Precipitation Map Offshore Using Daily and 3-Hourly Combined Precipitation Estimates   George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and W. R. S. Curtis   P1.34 Accounting for Uncertainty in Short Term Deterministic Precipitation Forecasts   Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake, S. Perica, and D. J. Seo   P1.35 Paper moved to Session 5, Paper number 5.2a     P1.36 A Verification Approach Suitable for Assessing the Quality of Model-Based Precipitation Forecasts during Extreme Precipitation Events   Andrew F. Loughe, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, J. L. Mahoney, and E. I. Tollerud P1.37 The Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment (PACJET): Building Bridges Between Research and Operations   David W. Reynolds, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and F. M. Ralph   P1.38 Extreme weather events and their probabilistic prediction by the NCEP ensemble forecast system   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washinton, DC; and Z. Toth   P1.39 Restructuring the National Weather Service Quantitative Precipitation Forecast process   Gary M. Carter, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and T. M. Graziano P1.40 Comparative verification of operational QPF products for the NWS QPF Process Assessment   Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. E. McDonald, D. W. Reynolds, G. M. Carter, and T. M. Graziano   P1.41 The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center—Restructuring Its Products and Services for the 21st Century   James E. Hoke, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. W. Reynolds   P1.42 The Canadian Hydrometeorological Information and Prediction System (CHIPS)   R. Paul Ford, MSC, Guelph, ON, Canada; and P. Pilon, H. Goertz, B. Murphy, P. Campbell, and Z. Cao   P1.43 Evaluating forecasts of rain events   Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. L. McBride   P1.44 The impact of resolution and ensemble size on precipitation forecasts by the ECMWF EPS   Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza P1.45 The Venezuelan rainfall-runoff disaster occurred in December 1999   Luis G. Hidalgo, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Estado Miranda, Venezuela P1.46 Integrating Climate, Hydrologic and Decision-support Models for Regional Assessments   Venugopal Vuruputur, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. A. Dirmeyer
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monday Session 3 Panel Discussion: Research Needs of the Private Sector (Invited Session)
Organizer: Roger Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 3.0 Panelists: Edward Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Joe Friday, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC; Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Elliot Abrams, Accu-Weather Inc., State College, PA
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
	5:30 PM, Monday Sessions end for the day
Tuesday, 16 January 2001
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday Session 4 Summer Storms: Basic Research (Invited Session)
Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 4.1 Mesoscale convective systems and floods: a review   Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Parker 8:30 AM 4.2 MONITORING AND PREDICTING HEAVY RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS   Robert A. Maddox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK and NOAA/NWSFO Visiting Scientist, Tucson, AZ 9:00 AM 4.3 Capabilities and Expectations for Flash Flood Nowcasting   James W. Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:30 AM Coffee Break
	8:30 AM-4:43 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 2 Climatology of Precipitation Extremes: Observed Characteristics, Trends and Impacts (Joint with the 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses)
Organizer: Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS, Portland, OR
8:30 AM J2.1 Orographic Thunderstorms and extreme floods along the western margin of the central appalachians   James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, N. S. Hicks, and Y. Zhang 9:00 AM J2.2 Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part I, Spatial Changes   Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel and S. E. Hollinger 9:15 AM J2.3 Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part II, Temporal Changes   James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. A. Palecki and S. E. Hollinger 9:30 AM J2.4 Analysis of Seasonal, Climate, and Elevation Effects on Times Between Storms   James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH; and C. T. Hanson and T. Keefer 9:45 AM J2.5 Using PRISM to Map Extreme Precipitation Events   Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and G. H. Taylor 10:00 AM Coffee Break   10:30 AM J2.6 Very heavy precipitation over the contiguous United States: Climatology, trends, and relationship with high streamflow and cloudiness   Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, and B. Sun 11:00 AM J2.7 Midwest U.S. Trends in Precipitation Extremes and Event Return Periods   Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL 11:15 AM J2.8 Trend and Shift Statistics on Annual Maximum Precipitation in Ohio River Basin over the Last Century   Bingzhang Lin, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. T. Julian 11:30 AM J2.9 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE UNITED STATES   Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL 12:00 PM Session Adjourns for Lunch   12:15 PM Conference Luncheon   2:15 PM J2.10 NOAA Atlas 14—New Precipitation Frequencies for the United States   Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 2:45 PM J2.11 It Is Time To Update The NOAA Precipitation Frequency Information   Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 3:00 PM J2.12 Development of a New Storm Generator Model and Associated Precipitation Studies   James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH 3:15 PM J2.13 Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Associated Streamflow in the Reynold's creek Experimental watershed, Idaho   Clayton L. Hanson, USDA/ARS, Boise, ID; and F. B. Pierson 3:30 PM Coffee Break   4:00 PM J2.14 Paleohydrologic estimates of convective rainfall in the Rocky Mountains   Robert D. Jarrett, U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO J2.15 Extreme Precipitation and Hydrometeorology Investigations and Needs   John F. England Jr., U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 4:14 PM J2.16 Creative Re-Construction of Historical Extreme Convective Precipitation Events using Radar, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Conventional Observations   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO 4:29 PM J2.17 Generalized and Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Studies for Dam safety evaluations   Edward M. Tomlinson, Applied Weather Associates, Monument, CO J2.18 Application of a stochastic precipitation model to estimate the inflow frequency of extreme floods to Folsom Dam on the American River Basin, near Sacramento, California   David M. Goldman, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Davis, CA; and M. Schaefer and B. Barker
	10:00 AM-2:00 PM, Tuesday Exhibit Hours
	10:00 AM-11:59 AM, Tuesday Session 5 Summer Storms: Prediction, Impacts and Responses (Invited Session)
Organizer: Charles A. Doswell, III, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
10:00 AM 5.1 The NWS end-to-end quantitative precipitation forecasting process: Status and future plans   Thomas M. Graziano, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. M. Carter, D. W. Reynolds, B. E. McDonald, J. P. Charba, and M. Mercer 5.2 General Issues in Forecasting convection and Heavy Rainfall from the Perspective of an On-Line Forecaster   R. H. Johns 10:29 AM 5.2a Challenges facing the operational quantitative precipitation forecaster when predicting heavy to extreme events (formerly paper P1.35)   Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Spring, MD 10:59 AM 5.3 Flash Floods: Characteristics of the Precipitation, the Runoff, and the Social Response   Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO 11:29 AM 5.4 Social Science of Flood Events   Eve Gruntfest, Univ. of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO
	12:15 PM, Tuesday Annual Meeting Luncheon
12:15 PM Details on Luncheon Speakers   Jim Hartz and Rick Chappell
	2:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday Poster Session 2 Summer Storms (Poster session)
P2.1 HPVCI—Convective Initiation   Paul J. Croft, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and D. Lu, J. Hafner, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and R. S. Reddy   P2.2 The sensitvity of West African squall line development to land cover changes   Karen I. Mohr, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Baker, W. K. Tao, and J. S. Famiglietti   P2.3 Cloud physical process in heavy rainfall of Mei-yu frontal system in South China   Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and J. Yang, Z. Ruan, and S. Z. Yang   P2.4 The contribution of orographic rainfall to the extreme precipitation in Southeastern Africa in Spring 2000   Chris C. Funk, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and R. F. MacCracken   P2.5 The Relationship between intense, short-duration precipiation and flash floods   Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO   P2.6 Diurnal variations of summer precipitation between wet and dry years in the central U.S   Zaitao Pan, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal, R. W. Arritt, and T. -. C. Chen   P2.7 Characterization Of The Distribution Of Cloud Spectra For Thunderstorms In The Western Mediterranean Area   Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and E. García and J. L. Marcos   P2.8 Extreme precipitation frequency in the Semiarid Southwest   Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. L. Vogel   P2.9 A Global Climatology of Thunderstorm, Hail, and Tornado Days   Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO   P2.10 Numerical Sensitivities in Convective/Nonconvective Cloud Interactions in MM5   Carlie J. Coats Jr., MCNC North Carolina Supercomputing Center, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry   P2.11 Extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America and relationships with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone   Leila M. V. Carvalho, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. Jones and B. Liebmann   P2.12 Predictability of heavy precipitation induced by mesoscale convective vortices   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. B. Trier, D. A. Ahijevych, and R. E. Carbone   P2.13 The sensitivity of simulated supercell precipitation to microphysical parameters   Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton   P2.14 Potential vorticity streamers and their role in the development of mesoscale convective systems, part III: numerical weather simulations   Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena and E. I. Tollerud   P2.15 Soil moisture and mesoscale convective complex development during the 1993 Midwest flood: Results from the MM5-PLACE atmosphere/land-surface model   R. David Baker, Austin College, Sherman, TX; and Y. Wang, W. K. Tao, and P. Wetzel P2.16 Front Range severe flash flooding and El-Niño   Richard Emil Kreitner, NOAA/NWSFO, Flagstaff, AZ   P2.17 October 1998 Extreme Rains Over South Central Texas   Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX   P2.18 Overview of the 7 May 2000 extreme rain event in Missouri   Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo, C. E. Halcomb, F. A. Akyüz, and P. Guinan   P2.19 Analysis Of Heavy Precipitation In The Region Of Valencia (Spain) By Means Of Ir Images From The Meteosat   Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and M. V. Fernández, F. Pastor, and M. J. Estrela   P2.20 Synoptic and spatial variability of the rainfall along the northern Peruvian coast during the 1997–8 El Niño event   Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Peña, N. Ordinola, L. Flores, and J. Boustead   P2.21 Big Thompson, 1976 to Buffalo Creek, 1996: Evolutions in emergency reponse to extreme preciptiation events   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO   P2.22 The extreme east-central Missouri flash flood of 6–7 May 2000   Fred H. Glass, NOAA/NWS, St. Charles, MO; and J. P. Gagan and J. T. Moore   P2.23 MM5 Simulations of the Las Vegas flash flood of 8 July 1999: The role of SSTs   Dorothea C. Ivanova, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell and R. Rabin   P2.24 The Role of Dual Cold Fronts Aloft in a Major Tornado and Flash Flooding Event   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Mitchem   P2.25 Regional climate model simulation of a multi-week heavy precipitation episode in the central U.S   Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and X. Z. Liang   P2.25a Simulation of a mid-latitude convective storm initialized with bistatic Doppler radar data   Thibaut Montmerle, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. Caya and I. Zawadzki   P2.26 Numerical simulation of the 17–18 July 1996 Chicago flood   Steven E. Peckham, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson   P2.27 Capabilities and Characteristics of Rainfall Estimates from Geostationary- and Geostationary+ Microwave-Based Satellite Techniques   Joe Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou, S. Qiu, R. A. Scofield, M. B. Ba, and A. Gruber   P2.28 Three-Dimensional Features of Summer Monsoon Precipitation Seen from TRMM/PR and Latent Heat Release over South Asia   Akiyo Yatagai, National Space Development Agency of Japan/Earth Observation Research Center, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan   P2.29 Comparison of TRMM and Rain Gage Rain Rates over New Mexico   Long S. Chiu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD and George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and Z. Liu, W. L. Teng, G. Serafino, S. Morain, A. Budge, C. Bales, and T. Wulff   P2.30 Regional climate modeling of the monsoon season over the Rio Grande Basin   James R. Stalker, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and K. R. Costigan, J. M. Reisner, and D. L. Langley   P2.31 Colorado High Elevation Flash Flood Producing Thunderstorms: Radar, Rainfall and Atmospheric Characteristics   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO   P2.32 On the use of Radar data to verify the long term performance of the UK Met Office Mesoscale Model precipitation forecasts   Martin Goeber, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. F. Milton   P2.33 An AMBER playback of the Kansas City, Missouri flash flood of 05 October 1998   Robert S. Davis, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA   P2.34 Satellite observations of Pacific moisture surges associated with the North American Monsoon   Donald M. Anderson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. K. Berg and J. J. Bates P2.35 Issues and Advances in WSR-88D Rainfall Estimation of Flash Flood Events in Complex Terrain   Dong-Jun Seo, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Breidenbach, R. A. Fulton, D. A. Miller, and T. D. O'Bannon   P2.36 National Basin Delineation and Flash Flood Database Creation   Gina M. Cox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. T. Arthur, D. Slayter, and N. Kuhnert P2.37 QIWI—A Web-Based Flash Flood Monitoring Tool   Jonathan J. Gourley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. T. Arthur, J. Zhang, B. E. Vieux, T. Vasquez, and K. W. Howard   P2.38 Seasonal Variation in Multi-Radar Coverage for WSR-88D Precipitation Estimation in a Mountainous Region   Jay P. Breidenbach, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Seo, P. Tilles, and C. Pham   P2.39 Evaluation of the Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall (AMBER) Flash Flood Algorithm at the Tulsa, OK and Sterling, VA NWSFOs   Ami T. Arthur, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Howard P2.40 Assessment of quantitative precipitation estimates using weather radar and a distributed hydrologic model   Jayson Innes, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada; and N. Kouwen and J. M. C. Young   P2.41 Rainfall Estimation from WSR-88D Reflectivities Using Artificial Neural Networks   Seth E. Snell, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM P2.42 On the uncertainty of a flood forecasting tool for small and medium size basins   Barbara Turato, University of Genoa, Savona, Italy; and L. Ferraris, U. Parodi, and R. Rudari   P2.43 A new methodology of rainfall retrievals from indirect measurements   Aleksandr Falkovich, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and R. Treadon   P2.44 Ensemble simulations of regional flood and drought climates   Zhiwei Yang, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. W. Arritt   P2.45 Development of a mesoscale 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system at JMA   Yoshihiro Ishikawa, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan   P2.46 Short Range Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation over the Southwest United States during the Summer Convective Season   David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and R. A. Maddox   P2.47 The impact of model resolution and ensemble population on the detection of intense precipitation events   Frederic Atger, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France   P2.48 Estimating extreme precipitation at high elevations in Colorado through mesoscale ensemble modeling   William R. Cotton, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. L. McAnelly and C. T. Ashby   P2.49 Short-to-medium range forecasting of midlatitude weather systems using a mesoscale global model with uniform and variable resolution   Stephane Belair, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Mailhot and M. Desgagne   P2.50 Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on convective system QPF in 10 KM ETA Simuations   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal, I. Jankov, and S. Aves   P2.51 Precipitation forecasts using the Battlescale Forecast Model   Jeffrey E. Passner, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and T. Henmi   P2.52 Some aspects of severe weather in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo   Augusto José Pereira, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and M. T. L. Barros and J. B. N. Romeiro P2.53 Hybrid short-range weather forecast systems   Keith T. Smith, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and G. L. Austin   P2.54 The effect of different initial conditions on short-term rainfall prediction   Ana M. B. Nunes, Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil   P2.55 Impact of soil moisture initialization on a simulated flash flood   C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton and R. L. McAnelly   P2.56 Quantitative precipitation forecasting of extreme synoptic-mesoscale events   Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Darlinghurst, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie   P2.57 Short-range forecasts of rainfall amount from an extrapolative-statistical technique utilizing multiple remote sensor observations   David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. D. Vibert and F. G. Samplatsky   P2.58 Anticipating heavy rainfall: Climatological aspects   Robert Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. H. Grumm   P2.59 Forecasting heavy rainfall in the Middle Atlantic region   Paul G. Knight, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and M. S. Evans   P2.60 Criteria For Selecting Meteorological Variables To Be Used In Statistical Models For A Short-Term Forecast Of Thunderstorms And Hailstorms   Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and J. L. Marcos, J. T. Fernandez, and E. García   P2.61 Extracting hydrologic information from high-resolution rainfall forecasts   John W. Nielsen-Gammon, CIAMS, College Station, TX   P2.61a On the Use of NEXRAD Stage IV Data in the Multimedia Modeling of Pollutant Transport   Brian K. Eder, NOAA/ARL, Research Triangle Park, NC; and S. K. LeDuc, A. B. Gilliland, and P. L. Finkelstein   P2.62 Use of surface mesonets, radiosondes and profilers to predict basin-specific QPF and flash floods in complex terrain   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO   P2.63 Evolutions in emergency reponse to extreme preciptiation events: hope for the future?   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO   P2.64 Application of an updraft warm layer depth QPF technique to June 2000 flash floods in the NWS Central and Southern Regions   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO   P2.65 Flash floods in the Caribbean: Environmental conditions and Mitigation   Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL   P2.66 Post-Fire Flash Flood Prediction: A Difficult Challenge   John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO   P2.67 California Flood Damage and The El Niño-Southern Oscillation   Preston S. Heard Jr., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and R. A. Pielke, Jr.
	3:30 PM-7:00 PM, Tuesday Exhibit Hours
	5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Tuesday Grand Poster Night
Wednesday, 17 January 2001
	8:00 AM, Wednesday President's Symposium
	9:30 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:00 AM, Wednesday President's Symposium Continued
	12:00 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	12:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours
	1:00 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 3 What do Climate Studies Tell us About Future Hurricane Frequency (Joint Session with the Symposium on Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses) (Invited Session)
Organizers: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; Ants Leetma, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
1:00 PM J3.1 Historical Hurricane Trends and Variability   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 1:15 PM J3.2 Climate Change and Hurricane Intensity   Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA 1:30 PM J3.3 Coupled model simulations of hurricanes in a CO2-warmed climate   Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ 1:45 PM J3.4 Global Warming and Hurricanes   William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 2:00 PM Open Discussion   3:00 PM Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 3 Continued: Hurricane Mitch: Perspectives on a Natural Disaster (Invited Session) (Joint between the Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts and the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses)
Organizer: Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
3:30 PM J3.5 Forecasting Difficulties during Hurricane Mitch   Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL 4:00 PM J3.6 Hurricane Mitch's effect on Honduras   Hector Flores, Director of the Honduran Hydrometeorological Service, Honduras J3.7 The problems of disaster preparedness and relief in Central America   Father Albert Brooks, Priest of Eglisia Santisima Trinidad, La Ceib, Honduras 4:30 PM J3.7a Trends in Hurricane Vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean   Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera 4:59 PM J3.8 The reconstruction effort in Honduras   Curt Barrett, Manager of the U.S. DOC Mitch Re-construction effort, Silver Spring, MD
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Reception (Cash Bar)
	7:30 PM, Wednesday AMS Annual Awards Banquet
Thursday, 18 January 2001
	8:00 AM-11:30 AM, Thursday Session 7 Hurricane Landfall Precipitation—Overviews, Our Problems, and Capabilities (Invited Session)
Organizer: Robert F. Abbey, ONR, Arlington, VA
8:00 AM 7.1 Overview of the Hurrican Landfall Rainfall Problem   Gary M. Barnes, Unversity of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 8:30 AM 7.2 An overview of the development of heavy precipitation associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones   Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry 9:00 AM 7.3 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Hurricanes: Issues and Opportunities   Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 9:30 AM 7.4 Space-Based Rainfall Capabilities in Hurricanes Offshore and Inland   Roderick A. Scofield, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Camp Springs, MD; and M. DeMaria and R. M. del Alfaro 10:00 AM Coffee Break   10:30 AM 7.5 Hydrological Considerations in Hurricane Flooding   Glenn Austin, 11:00 AM 7.6 Societal Impacts of Hurricane Precipitation   Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO
	10:00 AM-1:30 PM, Thursday Exhibit Hours
	11:30 AM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:00 PM, Thursday Oral Briefing: Poster Session P3: Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones
Organizer: Frank D. Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
	1:30 PM-9:30 PM, Thursday Poster Session 3 Extreme precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones
P3.1 Heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclone remnants in the Eastern United States   Michael P. Shuman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and J. P. Koermer and S. D. Reynolds   P3.2 Relationships between tropical cyclone attributes and precipitation totals: Considerations of scale   Charles E. Konrad II, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC P3.3 El Nino and hurricanes produce repetitive flash flooding in coastal Alabama   Keith G. Blackwell, Coastal Weather Research Center, Mobile, AL; and A. Williams   P3.4 Two slow-moving hurricanes produce vastly different rainfall patterns over the Alabama coastal area   Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball   P3.5 Extreme Rains in South Texas Associated with Tropical Storm Charley (1998)   Jimmy D. Ward, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX   P3.6 Numerical simulations of mesoscale structure and evolution of landfalling typhoon and induced torrential rain over Taiwan Island   Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China   P3.7 Rainfall simulation associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan   Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. H. Yen and Y. H. Kuo   P3.8 Interaction of Hurricane Georges (1998) with Orography on the Island of Hispaniola and Its Impacts upon Excessive Orographic Rainfall   Qingnong Xiao, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, F. D. Marks, and K. Park   P3.9 A modeling study of Hurricane Danny (1997) at landfall   Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. G. Blackwell   P3.10 Using TRMM observations to improve numerical simulations of precipitation within tropical cyclones   Giulia Panegrossi, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Tassa, S. Di Michele, G. J. Tripoli, A. Mugnai, and E. A. Smith   P3.11 Mesoscale modeling investigation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf of Mexico for a case study of Hurricane Bret   Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy and R. L. Miller   P3.12 Impact of satellite data assimilation on precipitation associated with Orissa supercyclone of 1999   Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and P. K. Patra, K. V. J. Potty, and C. M. Kishtawal   P3.13 Prediction of extreme precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones   Robert F. Abbey Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie, M. S. Speer, and L. Qi   P3.14 Multi-model ensemble forecasts of heavy rain events in Australia   Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia   P3.15 Circulation patterns and rainfall associated with the Feb–Mar 2000 Mozambique floods   Rosalyn F. MacCracken, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Thiaw   P3.16 Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the GFDL Hurricane Model   Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and R. E. Tuleya   P3.17 Using AMSU data to forecast precipitation from landfalling hurricanes   Stanley Q. Kidder, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and S. J. Kusselson   P3.18 A Self-Calibrating Blended Satellite Algorithm for Estimating Heavy Precipitation   Robert J. Kuligowski, ORA, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ba   P3.19 Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation for use by River Forecast Centers During Heavy Rainfall Events   Jay P. Breidenbach, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. A. Fortune, D. J. Seo, and P. Tilles P3.20 Satellite estimates of tropical cyclone precipitation using TRMM, GOES, and SSM/I   Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL   P3.21 The distribution of convective precipitation in tropical cyclones after landfall   Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari and L. F. Bosart   P3.22 Radar-derived rainfall estimates for Hurricane Floyd over New Jersey   Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWS, Mount Holly, NJ   P3.23 The dynamics of heavy rainfall in landfallen tropical systems   Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY   P3.24 The quantitative precipitation forecasting problem associated with landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones   Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and J. E. Molinari   P3.25 The impact of a coastal baroclinic zone on the distribution of heavy precipitation associated with Hurricane Floyd   Kwan-yin Kong, City College of New York, New York, NY   P3.26 The September 21–23, 1999 rain event in the Maritime Provinces of Canada   William G. Richards, EC, Fredericton, NB, Canada; and R. Brannen and M. Campbell P3.27 Extreme Precipitation Associated with Extratropical Transition   James D. Abraham, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada   P3.28 Flood forecasting in Honduras   Jason P. Tuell, Litton PRC, McLean, VA; and G. N. Day, R. Lewandowski, and S. Ouzts   P3.29 Improving public response to hurricane flooding   James B. Lushine, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL   P3.30 Installing Automated Weather Stations in Guatemala for Meteorology and Hydrology   Jason P. Tuell, Litton PRC, McLean, VA; and R. Lewandowski, S. Ouzts, and G. N. Day   P3.31 Basic Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting   Russell Pfost, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL   P3.32 Graphically Depicting Threat Assessment Information for Flood Situations in East Central Florida   David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break
	3:00 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday Exhibit Hours
	3:30 PM-4:45 PM, Thursday Panel Discussion 1 Status and Future of Hurricane-Related Precipitation (Invited Session)
3:30 PM PD1.1 Customer Requirements Related to Hurricane-Related Precipitation—Area, Duration, and Rain-Rate   To be Determined, 3:45 PM PD1.2 Hurricane-related Precipitation Cannot be Predicted on Usefull Time Intervals—Only Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Makes Sense   Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA 4:00 PM PD1.3 Forecasting Hurricane Rainfall Using Numerical Guidance   William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA 4:15 PM PD1.4 Improvements Needed for Hurricane-related Precipitation   Charles Guard, Univ. of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and M. A. Lander, W. F. Krajewski, and P. A. Kucera 4:30 PM PD1.5 Numerical Model and Data Assimilation Improvements Needed for Hurricane-Related Precipitation   Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
	5:00 PM, Thursday Closing Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	5:30 PM, Thursday Conference Ends
	6:30 PM, Thursday Closing Keynote Address
6:30 PM Details on Closing Keynote Address   J. M. Cousteau
	7:30 PM-9:30 PM, Thursday Fiesta

Browse the complete program of The The 81st AMS Annual Meeting