7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

MON 24 MAR

1

Opening Ceremony

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

8:30 AM

1.0

Tropospheric biennial oscillation and moisture transport over tropical Indian ocean and Pacific

Natalia A. Vjazilova, Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, World Data Center, Obninsk, Russia

COFFEE BREAK

2

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections over the Southern Hemisphere I

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

10:30 AM

2.1

Remote features linked to the South Pacific subtropical high

Richard Grotjahn, Univ. of California, Davis, CA

Poster PDF (594.7 kB)

10:45 AM

2.2

An Assessment of GCMs in terms of Daily Circulation Characteristics and the Global Energy Cycle

Waren J Tennant, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa; and B. C. Hewitson

11:00 AM

2.3

Troposphere-Stratosphere Linkage and Teleconnection Associated with Quasi-Stationary Rossby Wave Trains: A Case Study for the Southern Hemisphere Winter

Hisashi Nakamura, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Nishii

11:15 AM

2.4

Persistent positive anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere circulation

James A. Renwick, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand

Poster PDF (195.2 kB)

11:30 AM

2.5

Intraseasonal modes of Variability affecting the SACZ

Christopher A. Cunningham Castro Sr., Center for Weather Forcast and Weather Forecast and Weather Prediction/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and I. F. A. Cavalcanti

Poster PDF (124.0 kB)

11:45 AM

2.6

Modulation of Southern Hemisphere storm track activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Revell

Poster PDF (417.5 kB)

12:00 PM

2.7

Heat budgets and poleward atmospheric energy transports

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Stepaniak

Poster PDF (168.2 kB)

12:30 PM

2.8

Inter-El Niño variability of the Southern Hemisphere circulation Part I: Observational data

Gabriel E. Silvestri, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and V. R. Barros and C. S. Vera

Poster PDF (275.2 kB)

12:45 PM

2.9

Inter-El Niño variability of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. Part II: Generation mechanisms

Carolina S. Vera, CIMA, University of Buenos Aires, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, G. Silvestri, and V. Barros

Poster PDF (209.1 kB)

1:00 PM

2.10

The Hadley and Walker circulations associated with the ENSO episodes during 1970s, 1980s and 1990s: Impacts on the South American seasonal rainfall

Tércio Ambrizzi, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and E. B. Souza

Poster PDF (163.7 kB)

1:15 PM

2.11

ENSO: the equator and the southern mid-latitudes must work together

David J. Stephens, Department of Agriculture, South Perth, Australia; and M. H. Lamond

Poster PDF (97.9 kB)

1:30 PM

2.6a

Lunch Break

3

The Southern Hemisphere oceans and air-sea interactions I

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

10:30 AM

3.1

Ten years of high-resolution sea surface temperatures – what have we learned?

Michael J. Uddstrom, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand

Poster PDF (430.0 kB)

10:45 AM

3.2

Large scale pressure coupling between the atmospheric planetary boundary layer and the Southern Ocean

John A. T. Bye, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (73.4 kB)

11:00 AM

3.3

A summary of physical oceanography around New Zealand

Philip J. H. Sutton, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and S. M. Chiswell, M. M. Bowen, and M. J. M. Williams

Poster PDF (198.4 kB)

11:15 AM

3.4

Towards an oceanographic climatology of the Aotearoa – New Zealand region

C. Matthew Walkington, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and P. H. Sutton and M. Bowen

Poster PDF (105.0 kB)

11:30 AM

3.5

Air-sea interaction in Wellington Harbour: the effects of wind forcing on turbulent mixing and stratification

Craig L Stevens, NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand; and M. J. Smith, B. Ward, C. J. Lemckert, and J. A. McGregor

11:45 AM

3.6

Actinoform Clouds of the South Pacific: self-organization in the marine boundary layer

Roger Davies, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and M. J. Garay

Poster PDF (378.1 kB)

12:00 PM

3.7

Plenary Talk

12:30 PM

3.9

Investigating the role of air-sea coupling on the Madden Julian Oscillation

Andrew Marshall, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and O. Alves, H. Hendon, and D. J. Karoly

Poster PDF (161.1 kB)

12:45 PM

3.10

Concentrations of anthropogenic carbon in the Indian Ocean inferred from WOCE CFC12 data using transit time distributions

Timothy M. Hall, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and D. W. Waugh, T. W. N. Haine, and P. Robbins

1:00 PM

3.11

An outline of the role of eddies in the New Zealand Subantarctic

Michael Williams, NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand

1:15 PM

3.12

The dynamics of ENSO in a CGCM: Preliminary Results

Lynette Bettio, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and K. Walsh and S. Power

Poster PDF (844.8 kB)

1:30 PM

3.6a

Lunch Break

Coffee Break

Poster Session 1

Poster Session

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

P1.1

New-type Crystal Temperature Sensor For Environment Monitor

He Jin, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China; and Y. Tongyan, S. Peng, and C. Juan

P1.2

On the delivery of the ENSO signal to Africa: clues from the structure of convection in the West Pacific and Indian Ocean

Richard Washington, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. C. Todd

P1.3

Updating Australia’s high-quality annual temperature dataset

Paul M Della-Marta, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and D. A. Collins and K. Braganza

P1.4

Realtime global mapping of lightning using widely space VLF receivers on the ground

Richard L. Dowden, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; and C. J. Rodger

P1.5

Southern Hemisphere precipitation; a study of model sensitivity to parameter settings

Howard R. Larsen, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and R. Turner, D. S. Wratt, and M. Revell

Poster PDF (31.6 kB)

P1.6

Towards quantifying the distribution and microphysical properties of southern hemisphere cirrus clouds

Steven James Cooper, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. L'Ecuyer and G. L. Stephens

P1.7

Modelling the emission and transport of methane from New Zealand

Hamish Struthers, NIWA, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand; and B. Connor, M. Uddstrom, P. Andrews, H. Oliver, and S. Petrie

P1.8

Interannual Variability of the Semi-Annual Oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere

Andréa S. Taschetto, University of Sao Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and I. Wainer, J. Pereira, and M. Raphael

P1.9

Changing seasonality in Australian rainfall

Janette A. Lindesay, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; and K. M. Johnson

P1.10

Climatic consequences of a large scale desertification in Northeast Brazil

Marcos D. Oyama, Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and C. A. Nobre

P1.11

Diagnose: Real-time research on the nature and causes of climate anomalies

Neville Nicholls, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and P. Powers

P1.12

Estimating the effect of global climate change on orographic precipitation

Howard R. Larsen, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and W. Gray

Poster PDF (359.9 kB)

P1.13

Estimation of Regional Emission of Greenhouse Gases Using Satellite Data

Brian J. Connor, NIWA, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand; and H. Struthers, S. W. Wood, C. D. Rodgers, M. Uddstrom, and D. Lowe

P1.14

Impact of high frequency winds on the determination of mean and seasonal stresses over the ocean

Rui M. Ponte, AER, Lexington, MA; and R. D. Rosen

Poster PDF (381.4 kB)

P1.15

Using the Real-time Multivariate Madden Julian Oscillation Indices to predict Rainfall in Queensland

Alexis Donald, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia; and J. Ribbe, R. Stone, M. Wheeler, H. Meinke, G. Harris, and B. Power

P1.16

Some Climatological Characteristics of South American Monsoon System

José A. P. Veiga, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Paulo, Brazil

Poster PDF (225.3 kB)

P1.17

SST variability and external forcing of recent climate changes in Southern Africa

Joachim Rathmann, University of Wuerzburg, Wuerzburg, Germany; and J. Jacobeit

Poster PDF (273.6 kB)

P1.18

Warm season daily rainfall in South America using a nested modeling system

Anji Seth, International Research Insititute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY

P1.19

Teleconection between tropical west pacific convection and cold surges in the southern South America

Gabriela V. Müller, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and T. Ambrizzi, M. N. Nuñez, and S. Ferraz

Poster PDF (118.0 kB)

P1.20

The 1997/98 El Niño Cloud Properties from SAGE II

Pi-Huan Wang, STC/NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA

P1.21

Typical features of the South America monsoon system, and relations with the Low Level Jet and South Atlantic Convergence Zone in a climate AGCM simulation

Iracema FA Cavalcanti, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil; and J. A. Marengo

Poster PDF (629.9 kB)

P1.22

An intercontinental teleconnection: Interactions between Africa and South America

Kerry H. Cook, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and J. S. Hseih

P1.23

Design and application of an approach for climate prediction in tropical areas

Omar Baddour, Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale, Morocco, Kenya

Sessions end for the day

TUE 25 MAR

4

Interdecadal and Longer Term Climate Variability I

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

8:30 AM

4.1

Low frequency climate variabilities in the South Atlantic Ocean

Roberto A. F. De Almeida, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and E. J. D. Campos, R. J. Haarsma, and R. Bleck

Poster PDF (111.5 kB)

8:45 AM

4.2

Mechanisms of South Atlantic decadal variability in the south Atlantic Ocean: A study with a hierarchy of ocean-atmosphere models

Reindert J. Haarsma, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and E. J. D. Campos, R. A. F. de Almeida, A. R. Piola, and W. Hazeleger

Poster PDF (302.6 kB)

9:00 AM

4.3

North East Brazil rainfall: influences of sea surface temperature on seasonal to century time scales

Chris K. Folland, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. W. Colman, M. K. Davey, D. P. Rowell, and J. R. Knight

Poster PDF (132.7 kB)

9:15 AM

4.4

Modelling and interpretation of oxygen isotope records of tropical climate variability

Josephine Brown, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and I. Simmonds

Poster PDF (469.7 kB)

9:30 AM

4.5

A climate shift in mid-1970's in Northwest Amazonia and Southern Brazil

Guillermo O. Obregón, Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and C. A. Nobre

9:45 AM

4.6

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation: modeling and observations

A. Brett Mullan, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and C. K. Folland, B. Bhaskaran, M. J. Salinger, and J. A. Renwick

Poster PDF (75.6 kB)

10:00 AM

4.7

Plenary Talk

10:30 AM

4.8

Impacts of the tropical South American rainfall by changes in the global circulation

Tsing-Chang (Mike) Chen, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. S. Takle, J. H. Yoon, K. J. St. Croix, and P. Hsieh

Poster PDF (642.2 kB)

10:45 AM

4.9

Variations in the South Pacific Convergence Zone and influences on South Pacific Climate

M. James Salinger, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland and Wellington, New Zealand; and J. A. Renwick and A. B. Mullan

Poster PDF (93.9 kB)

11:00 AM

4.10

Decadal climate variability in the Pacific Ocean

Suwimol Sae-Koe, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; and K. Walsh and I. Simmonds

Poster PDF (457.6 kB)

11:15 AM

4.11

Changes to the vertical structure of cyclones under global warming

Eun-Pa Lim, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and I. Simmonds

Poster PDF (757.0 kB)

11:30 AM

4.6a

Coffee Break

12:00 PM

4.11a

Lunch Break

5

South American Monsoon System I

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

8:30 AM

5.1

Impact of heat sources in the tropical Americas: role of the non-linear interaction between Kelvin and Rossby Waves

Pedro L. Silva Dias, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil; and C. F. Raupp and I. A. Santos

Poster PDF (69.3 kB)

8:45 AM

5.2

The infuence of the Andes on the Argentine-Uruguayan Pampas summer climate simulated by a General Circulation Model

Silvio N. Figueroa, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and C. A. Nobre

9:00 AM

5.3

Wintertime precipitation over the South American Altiplano

Patricio Aceituno, Dpt. of Geophysics. Universidad de Chile, Santiago, R.M., Chile; and R. D. Garreaud and J. Ronchail

9:15 AM

5.4

Seasonal and sub-seasonal variability of the South American monsoon

Manoel Alonso Gan, INPE, SãoJosé dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil; and V. E. Kousky and C. F. Ropelewski

9:30 AM

5.5

The relationship of the South American Low-Level Jet to the formation and maintenance of large mesoscale convective systems.

Edward J Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Nicolini and P. Salio

9:45 AM

5.6

Contribution of mesoscale convective systems to rainfall totals over South America

Galdino Viana Mota, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser

10:00 AM

5.7

Plenary Talk: Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in Amazonia: Results of the LBA Experiment

Carlos A. Nobre, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and M. A. F. D. S. Dias, P. Artaxo, F. Luizão, A. D. Nobre, T. D. A. Sa, R. L. Victoria, and M. M. C. Bustamante

10:30 AM

5.8

Interannual rainfall variability over South America and the South Atlantic

Martin C. Todd, University College London, London, United Kingdom; and R. Washington and T. Ng

10:45 AM

5.9

A positive feedback process for maintaining the precipitation of the SACZ

Yasu-Masa Kodama, Hirosaki Univ., Hirosaki, Aomori, Japan

11:00 AM

5.10

The interannual variability of South American monsoon and rainfall in subtropical South America

Vicente Barros Sr., University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. Gonzalez Sr. and M. Doyle Sr.

Poster PDF (86.5 kB)

11:15 AM

5.11

Atmospheric circulation anomalies during wet and dry episodes in Uruguay during austral spring and summer

Alvaro F. Díaz, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay; and P. Aceituno

11:30 AM

5.6a

Coffee Break

12:00 PM

5.11a

Lunch Break

6

Weather and Forecasting I

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

1:30 PM

6.1

Plenary Talk

2:00 PM

6.2

Transient eddy forcing of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode variability: Results from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis and a quasi-linear model

Harun A. Rashid, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and I. Simmonds

Poster PDF (147.0 kB)

2:15 PM

6.3

Influence of midlatitude circulation characteristics on extratropical transition in the southwest Pacific Ocean

Mark R. Sinclair, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ

Poster PDF (231.3 kB)

2:30 PM

6.4

Conceptual models of synoptic-scale cyclones in the New Zealand – Australia area

Peter V. Kreft, Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited, Wellington, New Zealand; and M. A. Schwarz, G. H. Thompson, and C. S. Webster

Poster PDF (796.8 kB)

2:45 PM

6.5

Climatology of the South American cold fronts

Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and V. E. Kousky

Poster PDF (213.0 kB)

3:00 PM

6.6

Ocean heat content as a lower boundary condition for numerical weather prediction models

Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (127.8 kB)

3:15 PM

6.7

A potential vorticity view of Southern Hemisphere blocking

Stewart C. R. Allen, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; and D. J. Karoly and M. J. Reeder

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

3:30 PM

6.8

Interaction between Diffluence and Potential Vorticity in Southern Hemisphere Blocking Cases

Li Dong, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and S. J. Colucci

Poster PDF (95.5 kB)

3:45 PM

6.9

An operational Definition of El Niño

Phillip A. Reid, Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

4:00 PM

6.10

Improved skill of ENSO coupled model probability forecasts by Bayesian combination with empirical forecasts

Caio A. S. Coelho, University of Reading and ECMWF, Reading, Berks, United Kingdom; and S. Pezzulli, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and D. B. Stephenson

4:15 PM

6.11

Forecast of the October-December 2002 Atmospheric Circulation, Using the UCLA-AGCM and the NCEP forecasted TP-SST, combined with a statistical downscaling to estimate Oct-Dec/02 Precipitation in regions of Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil)

Gabriel Cazes, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay; and G. Pisciottano

4:30 PM

6.5a

Coffee Break

7

The Southern Hemisphere oceans and the cryosphere

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

1:30 PM

7.1

Plenary Talk: Interannual variability in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean: Observations and dynamical implications

Stephen R. Rintoul, Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; and S. Sokolov

2:00 PM

7.3

Simulation of ENSO-like variability with a recent coupled climate model

B Bhaskaran, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Kilbirnie, Wellington, New Zealand; and A. B. Mullan

2:15 PM

7.4

The WCRP Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project: status and plans

Roger G. Barry, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

2:30 PM

7.5

An examination of South American snow cover extent and snow mass from 1979-2002 using passive microwave satellite data

J. L. Foster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. T. C. Chang, D. K. Hall, and R. Kelly

Poster PDF (20.6 kB)

2:45 PM

7.6

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms at Dolleman Island, Antarctica, from ECMWF re-analysis and ice core data

Andrew Russell, The University of Birmingham, UK, Birmingham, West Midlands, United Kingdom; and G. R. McGregor and G. J. Marshall

Poster PDF (139.9 kB)

3:00 PM

7.7

Atmospheric thermodynamics responsible for the Antarctic circumpolar wave along the sea ice edge around Antarctica

Warren B. White, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and P. Gloersen and I. Simmonds

3:15 PM

7.8

Precipitation variability over East Antarctic as recorded at Mawson, Casey and Davis

Glenn R. McGregor, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and D. M. Bewley and G. Marshall

3:30 PM

7.9

The response of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical, atmospheric circulation to extremes of sea-ice concentration in summer

Marilyn N. Raphael, University of California, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, CA

3:45 PM

7.10

South Atlantic variabitility and the relationship with other global features in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Edmo J.D. Campos, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and R. A. F. de Almeida, R. J. Haarsma, and R. Bleck

4:00 PM

7.11

Clouds Over Sea Ice and Open Water in the Southern Ocean: Solar Transmittance and Cloud Radiative Forcing from Shipboard Measurements

Melanie Fitzpatrick, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. G. Warren and R. E. Brandt

Poster PDF (320.3 kB)

4:15 PM

7.12

Recent climate variability in the Antarctic Peninsula region and large-scale origins

Ian Simmonds, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (167.3 kB)

4:30 PM

7.13

Neural network applications in West Antarctic meteorology and climatology

David B. Reusch, Penn. State University, University Park, PA; and R. B. Alley

Poster PDF (118.2 kB)

4:45 PM

7.6a

Coffee Break

Sessions end for the day

WED 26 MAR

8

Weather and Forecasting II

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

8:30 AM

8.1

The Generation of the Morning Glory

Robert A. Goler, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and M. J. Reeder

Poster PDF (420.2 kB)

8:45 AM

8.2

Southern Hemisphere Blocking Onset Mechanisms Associated with Divergence Anomalies in the Upper Troposphere

Francisco Javier Saez de Adana, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and S. J. Colucci

Poster PDF (228.2 kB)

9:00 AM

8.3

Changes in cloud cover over Antarctica associated with Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays

Martin C. Todd, University College London, London, United Kingdom; and D. R. Kniveton

9:15 AM

8.4

A simple hydrological model to estimate runoff and soil moisture on macroscale basins in Brazil.

Javier Tomasella, INPE, 12630-000, SP, Brazil; and D. A. Rodrigues and E. M. Barbosa

9:30 AM

8.5

Evaluation of CPTEC's seasonal ensemble predictions of wet season rainfall over Northeast Brazil

Claudine P. Dereczynski, Federal Univ. of Rio De Janerio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and C. Nobre

Poster PDF (194.9 kB)

9:45 AM

8.6

POAMA: New Bureau of Meteorology Operational Coupled Model Seasonal Forecasting System

Oscar Alves, BMRC, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, F. Tseitkin, and G. Warren

10:00 AM

8.6a

Coffee Break

9

Regional Issues: Australasia and Oceania

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

8:30 AM

9.1

The Pacific Islands Regional Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Program

Howard J. Diamond, NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Salinger

Poster PDF (224.4 kB)

8:45 AM

9.2

The onset of the monsoon over the maritime continent

Mulyono R Prabowo, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia; and J. L. McBride and N. J. Tapper

9:00 AM

9.3

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Java floods of January/February 2002

Matthew C. Wheeler, BMRC, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

9:15 AM

9.4

Towards a regional climate model for New Zealand

Frank Drost, NIWA and Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; and J. A. Renwick

9:30 AM

9.5

The international Perlan project: soaring stratospheric mountain waves in New Zealand

Elizabeth J Carter, Firnspiegel LLC, Kings Beach, CA; and E. H. Teets Jr., J. Robinson, and S. N. Goates

Poster PDF (311.6 kB)

9:45 AM

9.6

Climatology of Low-Level Jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. temporal and Spatial variability

Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and W. R. Soares, C. Saulo, and M. Nicolini

10:00 AM

9.6a

Coffee Break

10

Climate and society in the Southern Hemisphere

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

10:30 AM

10.1

Plenary Talk

11:00 AM

10.2

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the Australian region

David J Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia

11:15 AM

10.3

Assessment of regional contributions to past and future anthropogenic climate change

Gregory Bodeker, Bodeker Scientific, New Zealand; and M. Manning

Poster PDF (179.0 kB)

11:30 AM

10.4

Australian impacts of long-term climate variability and change

William J. Wright, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

11:45 AM

10.5

Long-term trends in the latitude of the sub-tropical ridge over southeast Australia: climate correlates and consequences

Ronald E. Thresher, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

12:00 PM

10.6

Plenary Talk

12:30 PM

10.7

The SCAR READER project: Antarctic climate change over the last 50 years

John Turner, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Poster PDF (69.2 kB)

12:45 PM

10.8

Multiple biosphere-atmosphere equilibria in Brazil under present-day conditions: a GCM simulation study

Marcos D. Oyama, Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies - CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and C. A. Nobre

1:00 PM

10.9

Trans-Tasman Sea larval transport: is Australia a source for New Zealand lobsters?

Stephen M Chiswell, NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand

Poster PDF (689.8 kB)

1:15 PM

10.10

Coral reef, climate variability and vulnerability in the south Pacific island: potential consequences and adaptations

Frederic Bessat, UMR PRODIG-8586, Paris, France

1:30 PM

10.11

Statistical forecasting of seasonal temperatures in New Zealand

Xiaogu Zheng, NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research), Wellington, New Zealand; and J. A. Renwick

1:45 PM

10.12

Dry and Drier – The Australian 2002 El Niño experience

Andrew B. Watkins, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

2:00 PM

10.13

Impacts of El Nino 2002-2003: Southern Africa and the Maritime Continent

Anji Seth, International Research Insititute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and B. Lyon

2:15 PM

10.14

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Information: Evaluation of the Simulated Rainfall Characteristics

Jozef Syktus, Queensland Centre for Climate Applications, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia; and G. McKeon and N. Flood

2:30 PM

10.15

Why is UV radiation more intense in the Southern Hemisphere; and why is this not fully reflected in satellite derived estimations

Richard L McKenzie, National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Otago, New Zealand

2:45 PM

10.5a

Lunch Break

4:15 PM

10.10a

Coffee Break

11

The Southern Hemisphere oceans and air-sea interactions II

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

10:30 AM

11.1

Plenary Talk: The Argo Project: Broadscale ocean observations in the Southern Hemisphere

Dean Roemmich, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. S. Team

11:00 AM

11.2

Oceanic connection between the Pacific and Indian Oceans south of Australia

Ken Ridgway, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; and J. Dunn

11:15 AM

11.3

New estimates of continental discharge and oceanic freshwater transport

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Dai

Poster PDF (292.1 kB)

11:30 AM

11.4

Rainfall anomalies in western South America and the traditional "El Niño" versus "ENSO"

Chet F. Ropelewski, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and B. Lyon and M. Bell

11:45 AM

11.5

Solar forcing and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical response over the southern oceans

Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Washington, T. M. L. Wigley, J. M. Arblaster, and A. Dai

12:00 PM

11.5a

Lunch Break

12

Regional Issues: Africa

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

1:30 PM

12.1

Plenary Talk

2:00 PM

12.2

Transition from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere

Raphael E. Okoola, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

2:15 PM

12.3

Climate and atmospheric circulation changes in Southern Africa during the last 100 years

Joachim Rathmann, University of Wuerzburg, Wuerzburg, Germany; and J. Jacobeit

Poster PDF (310.5 kB)

2:30 PM

12.4

Inter-hemispheric comparison of the dynamics of rain-producing systems in tropical Africa: A study of climate change within the Kalahari and Sahelian transects

J. A. Adedoyin, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana

Poster PDF (160.4 kB)

2:45 PM

12.5

The relationship between southern Africa Rainfall and ENSO events

Washington Zhakata, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

3:00 PM

12.6

The role of Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs in African rainfall variability

Richard Washington, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxon, United Kingdom; and A. Preston and M. C. Todd

3:15 PM

12.7

Climatic variability in central Africa and its link to sea-surface temperatures and the El Nino/La Nina

Natasa Balas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Nicholson

3:30 PM

12.8

Intermodel evaluation of GCM boundary conditions for nested RCM downscaling

Bruce Hewitson, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa; and C. Jack and R. Crane

3:45 PM

12.9

Model Output Statistics Applied to Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts for Southern Africa

Willem A. Landman, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa; and L. Goddard

Poster PDF (193.9 kB)

4:00 PM

12.10

Seasonal forecasting for southern Africa using HadAM3

Mark Tadross, CSAG, Cape Town, South Africa; and D. Jagadheesha and B. C. Hewitson

4:15 PM

12.11

A 15 year regional model integration for Southern Africa

Chris Jack, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa

4:30 PM

12.12

The role of Indian Ocean SST on East African Short Rains

Charles C. Mutai, Meteorological Department of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

4:45 PM

12.5a

Coffee Break

Sessions end for the day

THUR 27 MAR

13

Tropical-extratropical interactions and teleconnections over the Southern Hemisphere II

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

9:00 AM

13.1

Why was September 2001 to September 2002 a year of anomalously low pressures over the Tasman Sea?

Michael J. Revell, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and J. A. Renwick

Poster PDF (793.0 kB)

9:15 AM

13.2

Variability of Seasonal-mean Fields Arising from Intraseasonal Variability: Application to the Southern Hemisphere Circulation

Carsten S. Frederiksen, BMRC, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and X. Zheng

9:30 AM

13.3

Tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere: influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.

Yuriy A. Kuleshov, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

9:45 AM

13.4

A hybrid coupled model study of remote influences over the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Paulo Nobre, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, SP, Brazil; and S. E. Zebiak

10:00 AM

13.5

Plenary Talk

10:30 AM

13.6

Southern Hemisphere atmospheric low frequency variability in a climate AGCM simulation

Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti, Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. C. Castro

Poster PDF (181.0 kB)

10:45 AM

13.7

Seasonal Variations in the Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams

Hisashi Nakamura, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and A. Shimpo

11:00 AM

13.4a

Coffee Break

14

Atmospheric Chemistry in the Southern Hemisphere

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

9:00 AM

14.1

Atmospheric methane at Suva, Fiji: The impact of tropical meteorology

David Lowe, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and T. Bromley, B. Allan, and K. Koshy

Poster PDF (120.7 kB)

9:15 AM

14.2

Tropospheric Bromine Explosion Events in the Antarctic: I) Mechanism

Karin Kreher, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand; and R. Schofield and U. Friess

Poster PDF (20.6 kB)

9:30 AM

14.3

Tropospheric BrO Explosion Events in the Antarctic: II) Measurements

Robyn Schofield, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand; and K. Kreher, B. Connor, P. Johnston, A. Thomas, and S. Wood

Poster PDF (24.2 kB)

9:45 AM

14.4

Airborne cycling of nutrients into the Benguela upwelling system off the west coast of South Africa and Namibia

Peter D Tyson, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

10:00 AM

14.5

Variability in ozone in the tropical troposphere from the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) network

Anne M Thompson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. C. Witte, F. J. Schmidlin, S. J. Oltmans, V. W. J. H. Kirchhoff, G. J. R. Coetzee, F. Posny, T. Ogawa, J. P. F. Fortuin, and H. Kelder

10:30 AM

14.6

Variability of atmospheric dimethylsulphide over the southern indian ocean due to changes in ultraviolet radiation

D. R. Kniveton, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, United Kingdom; and M. C. Todd and J. Sciare

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

10:45 AM

14.7

Transport and mixing in the southern subtropical upper troposphere

Darryn W Waugh, Johns Hopkins UNiversity, Baltimore, MD

11:00 AM

14.8

Characteristics of high ozone events over Africa

Roseanne D Diab, University of Natal, Durban, South Africa, Durban, South Africa; and G. Mahumane, A. Raghanundan, A. M. Thompson, V. Thouret, and J. P. Cammas

11:15 AM

14.9

Modulation of the Southern polar vortex and tropospheric variability by forcing in the tropical stratosphere and implications for ozone

David Noone, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Yung and R. L. Shia

Poster PDF (95.5 kB)

11:30 AM

14.4a

Coffee Break

Sessions end for the day

FRI 28 MAR

16

Interdecadal and Longer Term Climate Variability II

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

8:30 AM

16.1

Impacts of mid-Holocene radiative forcing on the Australian palaeoenvironment

Richard Wardle, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and I. Simmonds

Poster PDF (284.3 kB)

8:45 AM

16.2

What the Little Ice Age reveals about the South American Monsoon system, and vice versa.

Anton Seimon, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO, CO

9:00 AM

16.3

Mechanisms driving meridional shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies in extreme climates

Pandora Hope, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and I. Simmonds

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

9:15 AM

16.4

Atmospheric Response to mid-latitude thermal forcing: a mechanism for changes in climate regimes?

Peter G. Baines, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia

Poster PDF (138.7 kB)

9:30 AM

16.5

The influence of the Antarctic circumpolar wave on El Niño from 1950 to 2001

Warren B. White, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. L. Annis

9:45 AM

16.6

A comparison of trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses

Gareth J. Marshall, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Poster PDF (916.1 kB)

10:00 AM

16.7

Trends and variations in South Pacific island and ocean surface temperatures

Chris K. Folland, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and M. J. Salinger, N. Jiang, and N. A. Rayner

Poster PDF (133.8 kB)

10:30 AM

16.8

Instrument-and tree-ring based estimates of the Antarctic Oscillation index

Julie M. Jones, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany; and M. Widmann

Poster PDF (167.5 kB)

10:45 AM

16.9

Extratropical cyclone and anticyclone tracks and trends for the Southern Hemisphere: possible ENSO related impacts and climate changes

Alexandre Bernardes Pezza, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and T. Ambrizzi

Poster PDF (43.2 kB)

11:00 AM

16.10

Climate change simulations around the Antarctic Peninsula

Sebastien Conil, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and C. Menendez, C. Vera, and H. Le Treut

Poster PDF (142.5 kB)

11:15 AM

16.6a

Coffee Break

15

Weather and Forecasting III

Sponsor: 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Papers:

9:00 AM

15.1

Southern Hemisphere real-time, high resolution satellite rainfall estimation

Gilberto A. Vicente, NASA/GSFC - GMU, Greenbelt, MD

9:15 AM

15.2

Multi-sensor multi-spectral rain-rate retrieval

Aarno V. Korpela, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and M. J. Uddstrom

Poster PDF (353.5 kB)

9:30 AM

15.3

Identifying heavy rain events along New Zealand’s West Coast using the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System

Tony Simmers, Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd, Wellington, New Zealand

Poster PDF (51.9 kB)

9:45 AM

15.4

Trends and volatility in the accuracy of temperature forecasts

Shoni S. Dawkins, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and H. Stern

Poster PDF (128.0 kB)

10:00 AM

15.5

Plenary Talk

10:30 AM

15.6

Comparison of the performance of the ECMWF and BFM forecast models in the New Zealand Region

Richard Turner, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and J. Renwick and S. Schroeder

10:45 AM

15.7

Variational mesoscale data assimilation: The New Zealand Limited Area Model (NZLAM-VAR)

Michael J. Uddstrom, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and P. Andrews, H. Oliver, and A. Korpela

Poster PDF (339.5 kB)

11:00 AM

15.4a

Coffee Break

Conference Closing Ceremony

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