Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability

Program Chairs: Fuqing Zhang , Pennsylvania State University ; Kerry Emanuel , MIT

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Monday, 11 January 2016

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
2016 Presidential Forum: Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future
Location: La Nouvelle B-C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Moderator: Maureen McCann, News 13
Panelists: Admiral Thad Allen, United States Coast Guard (ret), Executive Vice President Booz Allen Hamilton; Kerry Emanuel, MIT; Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans; Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV/Former NOAA/National Hurricane Center Director
9:00 AM
Presidential Forum on Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future
9:05 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Alexander E. “Sandy” MacDonald)

9:15 AM
Introduction of Moderator McCann (MacDonald)

9:16 AM
Introduction of Speakers (McCann)

9:20 AM
Opening Remarks of Speakers

10:05 AM
Q&A

10:30 AM
Concluding Remarks

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Lecture 3
Horton Lecture
Location: Room 244 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the Fourth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 13th Conference on Space Weather; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 30th Conference on Hydrology; the Special Sessions on US-International Partnerships; the 25th Symposium on Education; the 14th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 12th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA); the Peter Lamb Symposium; the 20th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 18th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 14th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 11th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Events; the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 14th History Symposium; the Eighth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; and the Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability )
1:30 PM
L3.1

Thursday, 14 January 2016

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 1
Weather and Climate Predictability 1
Location: Room 231/232 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability
Chair: Kerry Emanuel, MIT
9:15 AM
1.3
9:30 AM
1.4

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Poster Session 1
Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction and Predictability Posters
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability
894
896
The Influence of Assimilating Targeted Observations upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation
Alexandra M. Keclik, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn

897
Predictability of Mid-Latitude Extreme Weather Changes in Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Hans W. Chen, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and R. B. Alley
Manuscript (48.1 kB)

900
Using Convection-Allowing Ensembles to Understand the Predictability of Extreme Rainfall
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

901
902
An Investigation of the Skill of Week Two Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts in the Context of Two Recent Extreme Weather Events
Andrew C. Winters, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

Handout (20.9 MB)

903
Study of High Resolution Ensemble and Extend Range (Week 3 and 4) in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Xiaqiong Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and I.M. Systems Group, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, M. Pena, W. Li, and D. Hou

904
Predictabilities and uncertainties of tracer trajectories and Lagrangian Coherent Structures with ensemble system
Mozheng Wei, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. Rowley, C. Barron, G. Jacobs, P. Hogan, O. M. Smedstad, and P. L. Spence

906
Seamless Enhancement of Climate Prediction over Land by Increasing the Model Sensitivity to Vegetation Variability
Andrea Alessandri, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Santa Maria di Galeria - Rome, Italy; and F. Catalano, M. De Felice, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, P. Miller, S. Boussetta, and G. Balsamo

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 2
Weather and Climate Predictability 2
Location: Room 231/232 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability
Chair: Dale R. Durran, University of Washington
11:30 AM
2.2
On the Short- to Medium-Range Predictability of Thunderstorm Formation
Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and B. Burghardt, B. Burlingame, A. Keclik, and P. Roebber

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 3
Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction 1—future NWP models
Location: Room 231/232 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability
Chair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
2:00 PM
3.2
2:30 PM
3.3
Extended-Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model
Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and T. Nasuno, K. Kikuchi, and M. Satoh

2:45 PM
3.4
Research on Prediction and Predictability at the Weather-Climate Continuum
Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Mariotti, D. Barrie, W. Chong, and A. Stevens

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction 2: data assimilation and ensemble forecasting
Location: Room 231/232 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability; and the 20th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University
4:30 PM
J1.3
Predictability from Weather to Intraseasonal Timescales Using Stochastic Ensembles
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and H. Christensen, B. Kerns, and F. Judt
4:45 PM
J1.4
Ensemble Predictability of Convective Weather Hazards
Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Schwartz, R. A. Sobash, and K. Fossell

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


AMS 96th Annual Meeting Adjourns