Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017

Program Chairs: Tanja Fransen , NOAA/NWS ; Klaus Wolter , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

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- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 7 January 2018

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018

Monday, 8 January 2018

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Major Impacts of 2017 - Drought/Wildfire
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
8:45 AM
1.1
2017 US Northern Plains Drought
Laura Edwards, State of South Dakota, Aberdeen, SD; and T. Fransen and D. Kluck
9:15 AM
1.3
Meteorological Observations and Review of the Gatlinburg Wildfire
Matthew E. Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and A. Pritchett
9:30 AM
1.4
The 6 March 2017 Southern Great Plains Firestorm: Operational Preparedness and Fire Environment Perspectives
Barry R. Bowers, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and T. T. Lindley, G. P. Murdoch, B. R. Smith, and D. Daily

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Major Weather Impacts of 2017 - Cool Season Events
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Charles Woodrum, NWS
10:30 AM
2.1
The Fickle Winter of 2016-17 (Invited Presentation)
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
10:45 AM
2.2
Impactful Rains in California and Snow, Ice, and Cold in Oregon in Early 2017
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Burg and A. M. Bentley
11:00 AM
2.3
Observations of California’s Epic 2017 Water Year from Satellite and a 21st Century Ground-based Observing Network
Allen B. White, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Neiman, D. J. Gottas, G. A. Wick, M. Hughes, and L. S. Darby

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
Major Impacts of 2017 - Warm Season Events
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Tanja Fransen, NOAA/NWS
2:00 PM
3.1
2:30 PM
3.3
Super Typhoon Hato — Observations, Forecasting and Warning
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and T. C. Lee
2:45 PM
3.4
Tropical Cyclone Debbie (2017): Evaluating Analytically- and Numerically-Driven Wind and Storm Tide Hazards and Impacts
Richard J Krupar III, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. S. Mason, T. Kloetzke, D. J. Smith, and D. Henderson
3:00 PM
3.5
3:15 PM
3.6
Comparison of Radar and Ground based Hail Observations During the May 8 Hail Storm in Denver, Colorado
V. Chandrasekar, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. K. Biswas, I. Arias, K. E. Willmot, S. Bussmann, and A. Kubicek

3:30 PM
3.7
The May 17,2017 Derecho in Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin
David A. Imy, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark
3:45 PM
3.8
The 2017 Tornado and Severe Weather Season (Invited Presentation)
Russell Schneider, NOAA/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and P. Marsh

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Poster Session
Major Weather Impacts of 2017 Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Cochairs: Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Tanja Fransen, NOAA/NWS
374
The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions of 2017 in Historical Perspective
Jake Crouch, NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC; and D. S. Arndt, A. Sanchez-Lugo, K. Gleason, and C. Fenimore

376
Inland Impacts from Hurricane Matthew across North Carolina
Jonathan Blaes, NOAA/NWS, Raleigh, NC

377
A Synoptic, Mesoscale and Radar Review for the Southeast Tennessee Tornado Outbreak of 30 November 2016
Jeremy L. Buckles, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and E. M. Hagner and D. G. Hotz

378
Case Study of the High Impact 6 Jan 2017 Icing Event across Central Mississippi
Eric E. Carpenter, NOAA/NWSFO, Jackson, MS; and B. Bryant and C. Entremont

380
Analysis of Multiple Atmospheric River Impacts on California in Early 2017
Alison F.C. Bridger, San Jose State University, San Jose, California; and L. Bate

381
382
2 April 2017 Louisiana Tornado Outbreak
Robert Megnia, NWS, Lake Charles, LA; and T. W. Humphrey and J. Rackley

383
An Analysis of the Spring 2017 Record Flooding Event in Northern Arkansas
Christopher C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS, North Little Rock, AR; and T. Clarke and J. B. Hood

384
A Case of Prolific QLCS Tornado Production: The Lower Mississippi River Valley Tornado Outbreak of 30 April, 2017
Chad Entremont, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS; and A. E. Cohen, N. Fenner, S. K. Hefferan, J. D. Lamb, and T. Winesett

385
A Radar and Warning Decision Analysis of an Anomalous Tornadic Supercell in the Texas Panhandle
Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Lubbock, TX; and S. Cobb and G. Skwira

386
388
Operational Use of Experimental Warn-on-Forecast Guidance Prior to the 16 May 2017 Elk City, Oklahoma Tornado
Gabriel S. Garfield, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. J. Choate, P. L. Heinselman, T. Lindley, P. S. Skinner, and R. Smith

390
Fine-Scale Multiple-Doppler and Thermodynamic Observations in an Eclipse
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4
Hurricanes of 2017: Part I
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
8:30 AM
4.1
Low Altitude Coyote UAS Missions into Major Hurricane Maria
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and K. Ryan, A. Aksoy, B. A. Dahl, J. Zhang, E. A. Kalina, B. B. Baker, and E. J. Dumas Jr.
8:45 AM
4.2
The Role of Small-Scale Vortices in Enhancing Surface Winds and Damage in Hurricane Harvey
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba
9:00 AM
4.3
New Remote Sensing Technologies to Monitor Tropical Cyclones in Near Real-Time
Chris Vagasky, Vaisala Inc., Louisville, CO; and M. J. Murphy, R. Said, and S. Early
9:15 AM
4.4
A Review of NCEP Model Guidance for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, and A. Mehra
9:30 AM
4.5
The 2017 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Real-Time Experiments
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bender, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, F. Toepfer, and F. D. Marks Jr.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Hurricanes of 2017Part II
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Owen H. Shieh, Joint Typhoon Warning Center
10:30 AM
5.1
Advanced Analysis and Prediction of Hurricane Harvey with NOAA’s Newly Developed NGGPS Model and Assimilation of the Newly Launched GOES-16 All-Sky Radiance
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and X. Chen, M. Minamide, R. Nystrom, S. J. Lin, and L. Harris
10:45 AM
5.2
11:00 AM
5.3
Supporting the Movement of Fleet Utility Vehicles for the Restoration of Power: An Example of the Weather Enterprise at Work
Dave Jones, StormCenter Communications, Inc., Halethorpe, MD; and T. Moran, R. de Ameller, T. Wible, and E. Robinson

11:15 AM
5.4
NASA Earth Science Disasters Program Response Activities During Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017
Jordan R. Bell, Univ. of Alabama - Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. A. Schultz, A. L. Molthan, D. B. Kirschbaum, M. Román, S. H. Yun, F. J. Meyer, K. A. Hogenson, R. Gens, H. M. Goodman, S. Owen, R. Amini, Y. Lou, M. Glasscoe, D. S. Green, J. J. Murray, J. C. Struve, J. Seepersad, and V. Thompson
11:30 AM
5.5
Harvey: An Exceptional Rainfall Event (Invited Presentation)
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6
Hurricanes of 2017Part III
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: William Read, Former Director, National Hurricane Center
1:30 PM
6.1
Effective Messaging of Hurricane Harvey’s Impacts across South Texas
Mike Buchanan, NOAA/NWSFO, Corpus Christi, TX; and K. M. Wagner, T. Johnstone, and J. Metz
1:45 PM
6.2
Grappling with Harvey’s Extreme Rainfall (Invited Presentation)
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and G. W. Carbin
2:00 PM
6.3
Tornadoes in a Flash Flood Emergency, a Messaging Challenge (Invited Presentation)
Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS/WFO, Dickinson, TX; and L. Wood and T. Johnstone
2:15 PM
6.4A
NWS at Full Tilt: Supporting Operations for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria
Jonathan Kurtz, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and K. LaBelle, J. McNatt, C. McKinney, L. E. Pagano, A. Nieves, G. Heavener, C. Dalton, and C. Rothwell

3:00 PM
6.8
Effectively Issuing Warnings and Disseminating Information During Hurricane Maria when Observations, Radar and Communications Fails (Invited Presentation)
Travis Washington, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Carolina, PR; and E. Rodriguez, R. Garcia-Hiraldo, I. Colon-Pagan, and G. Lojero
3:15 PM
6.7
High Impact Meteorology Supporting Response and Recovery During and After Two Devastating Hurricanes
Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA, Miami, FL; and E. Rodriguez, E. Morales, A. Treadway, A. Devanas, J. Rizzo, M. J. Moreland, M. Davison, R. Cabrera, J. McNatt, and S. White
3:30 PM
6.9

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Hurricanes of 2017 Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Cochairs: Tanja Fransen, NOAA/NWS; Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
790
Large-scale Real-time Approximate Inundation Mapping during Harvey using the Height Above Nearest Drainage
Xing Zheng, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and D. Maidment, E. M. Boghici, D. Arctur, H. R. Evans, S. Liu, C. Proctor, and N. Gaffney

791
Hurricane Harvey's Impacts across South Texas
Michael E. Buchanan, NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

Handout (4.5 MB)

792
A Detailed Rainfall Analysis and Probabilistic Perspective of Hurricane Harvey’s Extraordinary Rainfall
Tye W. Parzybok, MetStat, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and S. K. Bokn, K. Ward, R. Caldwell, and A. H. Dietrich

793
Hurricane Harvey the Name Says It All
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and B. J. Miretzky

794
Global Ensemble Forecasts of Hurricane Irma:Uncertainty Associated with United States Landfall
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and B. J. Miretzky and C. Guastini

796
Impact of Major Hurricanes to Hit Texas Coastal Bend Regions
Audrey Flores, Texas A&M, Corpus Christi, TX; and N. Liu

798
High Temporal Resolution Tropospheric Wind Profile Observations at NASA Kennedy Space Center during Hurricane Irma
Ryan K. Decker, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Barbre Jr., T. Wilfong, L. L. Huddleston, and T. Brauer
Manuscript (587.4 kB)

799
Mapping of Winds in Landfalling Irma from Two DOWs and Several Pods Deployed near Naples, Florida
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba

800
Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Using ENGLN Lightning Data
Saiadithya Cumbulam Thangaraj, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and J. Lapierre and M. Stock

801
A Simple Statistical Model for the Lifetime Evolution of Outer Tropical Cyclone Size
Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and N. Lin, D. R. Chavas, M. Oppenheimer, and A. Brammer

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break