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Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 12 January 2002
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
Sunday, 13 January 2002
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	9:00 AM, Sunday CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
Monday, 14 January 2002
	12:00 AM, Monday Sessions end for the day (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 17 January (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	9:00 AM, Monday Welcoming Remarks
	9:30 AM-4:58 PM, Monday Joint Session 1 land-atmosphere interactions: Part I (Joint with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: Dag Lohmann, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
9:30 AM J1.1 Reducing near-surface cool/moist biases over snowpack and early spring wet soils in NCEP Eta model forecasts via land surface model upgrades   Kenneth E. Mitchell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ek, D. Lohmann, V. Koren, J. Schaake, Q. Duan, P. Grunmann, G. Gayno, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, D. Tarpley, and C. Peters-Lidard 9:45 AM J1.2 Regional spectral model simulation for Brazil with soil moisture correction   Shyh-Chin Chen, Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and J. O. Roads 10:00 AM J1.3 Evaluation of LDAS land surface models with observed forcing and hydrology   Lifeng Luo, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and A. Robock, K. E. Mitchell, P. R. Houser, J. C. Schaake, E. F. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, R. T. Pinker, and D. Tarpley 10:15 AM J1.4 Evaluation of streamflow and snowpack simulations in the land surface models of the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) Project   Dag Lohmann, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, P. R. Houser, J. C. Schaake, E. F. Wood, D. Tarpley, R. W. Higgins, R. T. Pinker, A. Robock, D. P. Lettenmaier, B. Cosgrove, Q. Duan, J. Sheffield, and L. Luo 10:30 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   11:00 AM J1.5 Forcing a global, offline land surface modeling system with observation-based fields   Matthew Rodell, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, U. Jambor, J. Gottschalck, J. Radakovich, K. Arsenault, C. -. J. Meng, and K. E. Mitchell 11:15 AM J1.6 GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics   Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. K. Walker, S. D. Schubert, and Y. Sud J1.7 Influence of land use on the regional climate of southwest Australia   Deepak K. Ray, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and U. S. Nair 11:29 AM J1.8 Land-Atmosphere Interactions at the Norman Mesonet Site   Jeffrey B. Basara, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford 11:44 AM J1.9 Land-atmosphere feedback across eastern Oklahoma following the MCS events of August 1994   Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford 11:59 AM Lunch Break   1:29 PM J1.10 The Impact of Oklahoma’s Winter Wheat Crop on the Mesoscale Environment   Renee A. McPherson, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 1:44 PM J1.11 Spatial and temporal correlations among Oklahoma Mesonet and OASIS surface-layer measurements   Jerald A. Brotzge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. J. Richardson 1:59 PM J1.12 Simulation of Fine-Scale Soil Moisture Variations at the Walnut River Watershed in Kansas   Yiwen Xu, ANL, Argonne, IL; and M. L. Wesely J1.13 A Multiple-Layer Canopy Model: Solving the Exchanges Between Size-Structured Vegetation and Atmosphere   Guiling Wang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. M. Fan, E. Shevliakova, S. W. Pacala, and P. A. Moorcroft 2:13 PM J1.14 Impact of land use/land cover change on U. S. climate   Somnath Baidyaroy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and C. P. Weaver and S. W. Pacala 2:28 PM J1.15 Impact of remotely sensed leaf area index on a Global Land Data Assimilation System   Jon C. Gottschalck, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser and X. Zeng 2:43 PM J1.16 Hydrological Land Surface Response in a Tropical and a Midlatitudinal Regime   Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue and S. Raman 2:58 PM Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room   3:28 PM J1.17 The Role of Vegetation in the Mountainous Regions of the Central Himalayas   Osman Yildiz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. P. Barros 3:43 PM J1.18 The impact of hydrological processes before and after a bushfire in a watershed in southeastern Australia   Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, S. Liu, R. P. Morison, and L. Qi 3:58 PM J1.19 A New Method for Estimating Evaporation from Large Reservoirs   Edgar L Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and S. F. Daly, G. G. Koenig, and M. E. Nelson 4:13 PM J1.20 Impacts of Soil Water Freezing Point on Soil Freeze-Thaw Cycles and Runoff: A Study Using the Community Land Model (CLM)   Zong-Liang Yang, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and G. Y. Niu 4:28 PM J1.21 Southern Iceland discharge and regional climate-North Atlantic atmospheric circulation relationships 1973–1992   Glenn R. McGregor, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and D. M. Lawler and I. D. Phillips 4:43 PM J1.22 An evaluation of downscaling predicted precipitation in a coupled modeling system   Keeley R. Costigan, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. D. Tomkins, E. P. Springer, C. L. Winter, J. R. Stalker, and D. L. Langley
	9:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday Session 1 Opening Session: Climate Observations and Climate Change Detection
Organizer: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
9:30 AM 1.1 Components of a Climate Observing System   Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO 10:00 AM 1.2 Accounting for Effects of Volcanoes and ENSO in Comparisons of Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends   B. D. Santer, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and T. M. L. Wigley, C. Doutriaux, J. S. Boyle, J. E. Hansen, P. D. Jones, G. A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, S. Sengupta, and K. E. Taylor 10:15 AM 1.3 A New Technique to Estimate the Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles of Climatic Trends, With Applications to Temperature and Sea Ice   Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, D. J. Cavalieri, and C. L. Parkinson 10:30 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   11:00 AM 1.4 A General Bayesian Approach to Climate Change Detection and Attribution Using ECHAM3-LSG Scenario Runs and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Observations   Seung-Ki Min, METRI, Seoul, Korea; and A. Hense, H. Paeth, W. T. Kwon, and J. H. Oh 11:15 AM 1.5 Climate variations and its impact on trend detection   Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and K. C. Mo 11:30 AM 1.6 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent and Global Warming: Observed and Simulated Variations   Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, D. A. Robinson, R. L. Armstrong, D. J. Cavalieri, C. L. Parkinson, R. J. Stouffer, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, A. J. Broccoli, J. M. Gregory, G. M. Flato, N. C. Grody, B. H. Ramsay, P. Romanov, and A. N. Basist 11:45 AM 1.7 Evidences of Dominant Atmospheric Circulation Variability in the Context of Global Warming   Xiangdong Zhang, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. Zhu
	11:00 AM-2:44 PM, Monday Session 2 Interannual Variability I: Modeling Studies
Organizer: Chet Ropelewski, Columbia Univ., Palasades, NY
11:00 AM 2.1 Interannal and Decadal Relationships between the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and ENSO: A Coupled CGM Study   Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 11:15 AM 2.2 The Control of the Warm-pool SST over the Magnitude of El Nino Warming   De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/ERL/CDC and CIRES, Boulder, CO 11:30 AM 2.3 Generation and Air-Sea Coupling Mechanisms of Tropical Instability Waves   Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and W. T. Liu 11:45 AM 2.4 Monthly mean extratropical atmospheric circulation response to El Nino SST   Hui Wang, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and R. Fu 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM 2.5 Tropical forcing of North Pacific decadal variability explored using a GCM ensemble   Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and T. A. Beitzel 1:45 PM 2.6 Multidecadal Variations of ENSO Teleconnection in the NCAR CCM3   Qi Hu, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and S. Feng 2:00 PM 2.7 Changes of Probability associated with El Nino   Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo and C. Penland 2.8 Observed and Simulated Seesaw between Aleutian and Icelandic Lows and its Interdecadal Modulation   Shozo Yamane, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Honda and H. Nakamura 2:14 PM 2.9 An integrated approach to coupled climate modeling based on geodesic grids and quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinates   Todd D. Ringler, Colostate State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall 2:29 PM 2.10 Seasonal Cycles of Surface Radiation Budget and Climate Classes   Anne Wilber, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse
	1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday Session 3 Observed Climate Change I: Paleo and Instrumental Records
Organizer: Dian Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PM 3.1 The carbon dioxide theory of climate change: emergence, eclipse, and reemergence, ca. 1850–1950   James R. Fleming, Colby College, Waterville, ME 1:45 PM 3.2 400 Years of California Central Valley precipitation reconstructed from blue oaks   Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. W. Stahle, M. D. Therrell, D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger 2:00 PM 3.3 Analogs of 20th century moisture anomalies in the central and western USA, 1500-1978   Falko K. Fye, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and D. W. Stahle and E. R. Cook 2:15 PM 3.4 Describing global climate variability and change using simple indices   David J. Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, Vic, Australia; and K. Braganza 2:30 PM 3.5 The 1930s Drought in the U.S. Great Plains: New Perspectives and a Look at Land Surface Responses   Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Webb, J. K. Eischeid, and S. Forman 2:45 PM 3.6 The Climate of 2001 in Historical Perspective   Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and K. L. Gleason, R. Heim, S. Stephens, and D. Chappas 3:00 PM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   3:30 PM 3.7 Warming phases in long-term Spanish Temperature Change   Manola Brunet, University Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain; and E. Aguilar, O. Saladié, J. Sigró, and D. López 3:45 PM 3.8 Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861   Christopher K. Folland, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, I. Macadam, D. M. H. Sexton, S. J. Brown, T. M. Smith, S. S. P. Shen, P. D. Jones, R. N. Jones, and N. Nicholls 4:00 PM 3.9 109-year record of surface temperatures in N. Alabama   John R. Christy, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 4:15 PM 3.10 Observed High-Latitude Temperature Changes in the Northern Hemisphere   David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and P. D. Jones, C. M. Eakin, T. C. Peterson, J. Lawrimore, P. Y. Groisman, and M. MacCraken 4:30 PM 3.11 The Climate Change in the Western Arctic During the Last Two Decades   Muyin Wang, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland and N. Bond 4:45 PM 3.12 Trend analysis of the 20th century snowfall record for Minnesota   Martha D. Shulski, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN; and M. W. Seeley 5:00 PM 3.13 The impact of global warming on ENSO seen in Southern Oscillation Index   Zhaohua Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD 5:15 PM 3.14 How are Decade-Scale Precipitation Variations Reflected in the Daily Precipitation Record?   Jurgen D. Garbrecht, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. Schneider and X. C. Zhang
	3:30 PM-4:59 PM, Monday Joint Session 2 Climate Model Diagnostics: Tools (Joint with the 18th Conference IIPS and 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: Dean Williams, LLNL, Livermore, CA
3:30 PM J2.1 Climate data analysis tool: an open software system approach   Dean N. Williams, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and R. S. Drach, P. F. Dubois, C. Doutriaux, C. J. O'Connor, K. M. AchutaRao, and M. Fiorino 4:00 PM J2.2 The Live Access Server: a tool for Web access to in-situ data collections, too   Steven Hankin, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. Sirott, J. Callahan, K. O'Brien, and A. Manke 4:15 PM J2.3 The NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)   Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert, R. Stouffer, B. Domenico, L. Buja, D. N. Williams, B. Doty, M. Kafatos, and S. Hankin 4:30 PM J2.4 ARCAS (ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System)—a web access system for climate model data access, visualization and comparison   T. M. L. Wigley, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Brown, J. Callahan, S. Hankin, C. Hakkarinen, M. de Koningh, D. Middleton-link, and J. Sirott J2.5 An Overview of the Live Access Server   Steve Hankin, NOAA/ERL/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. Callahan and J. Sirott 4:44 PM J2.6 A suite of web pages for analyzing climate signals in large datasets   Catherine A. Smith, NOAA/CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Collins and R. H. Schweitzer
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Monday Session 4 Regional Climate Modeling
Organizer: L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA
3:30 PM 4.1 Enhanced Climatic Warming over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study   Baode Chen, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. C. Chao and X. Liu 3:45 PM 4.2 Evaluation by the SUNYA ReCM of the impact of PNA on the winter climate of northeastern United States   Michael Notaro, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. C. Wang 4.3 The potential influence of river and wetland co2 fluxes on regional carbon balance in the Tapajos region, Para, Brazil   Lixin Lu, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Denning, J. Richey, P. D. Silva-Dias, M. A. D. Silva-Dias, K. Schaefer, and E. Inazawa 4:00 PM 4.4 On PIRCS models' consistency of dynamics with precipitation   Zaitao Pan IV, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt, E. Takle, W. Gutowski, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, and E. al 4:15 PM 4.5 Regional climate simulation of the anomalous events of 1998 using a stretched-grid GCM with multiple areas of interest   Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, College Park, MD; and L. L. Takacs and R. C. Govindaraju 4:30 PM 4.6 Investigation of Middle Eastern climate using a regional climate model   Jason Evans, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. Oglesby, K. Maasch, and R. Smith 4:45 PM 4.7 Reanalyses and GCM driven nested model sensitivity studies for South America   Anji Seth, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Rojas
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
	7:00 PM-8:30 PM, Monday Panel Discussion 1 U.S. Global Change Research Program: Future Prospects
Panelists: Ghassem Asrar, NASA, Washington, DC; Margaret Leinen, NSF, Arlington, VA; Jerry Elwoods, U.S. Department of Energy, Germantown, MD; Janet Gamble, U.S. EPA, Washington, DC; J. Michael Hall, NOAA/OGP, Silver Spring, MD Moderator: Robert W. Corell, AMS, Washington, DC
7:00 PM PD1.0A An Introduction to the U.S. Global Change Research Program   Richard Moss, U.S. Global Change Research Program Office, Washington, DC 7:15 PM PD1.1 Recent Developments for NASA's Global Change Programs   Ghassem Asrar, NASA, Washington, DC 7:30 PM PD1.2 USGCRP and the National Science Foundation   Margaret Leinen, NSF, Arlington, VA 7:45 PM PD1.3 USGCRP and the U.S. Department of Energy   Jerry Elwood, U.S. Department of Energy, Germantown, MD 8:00 PM PD1.4 Assessing the consequences of global change: An overview of EPA's Global Change Research Program   Janet Hurrell, U.S. EPA, Washington, DC 8:15 PM PD1.5 The Role of Global Environmental Change Research in the 21st Century   J. Michael Hall, NOAA/OGP, Silver Spring, MD
Tuesday, 15 January 2002
	8:30 AM-2:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 3 Climate Variations and Forecasting (Joint with the 16th Conference Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizers: Rick Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Bob Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM J3.1 A new significance test for empirical orthogonal functions   M. S. Santhanam, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and B. Aditya and G. A. Kumar 8:45 AM J3.2 The correlation structure of some simple indices of global climate variability and change   David J. Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and K. Braganza 9:00 AM J3.3 Cloudiness trends in Canada   Ewa J. Milewska, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada 9:15 AM J3.4 A linear approach to atmospheric predictability on the medium and extended range   Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. R. Winkler 9:30 AM J3.5 Do weather or climate variables and their impacts have heavy-tailed distributions?   Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM J3.6 A hazard model for tornado occurrence in the United States   Cathryn L. Meyer, Boston College, Boston, MA; and H. E. Brooks and M. P. Kay 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM J3.7 A new perspective on the climatology of tornadoes in the United States   Sara L. Bruening, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Kay and H. E. Brooks 10:45 AM J3.8 Determining Fog Type in the Los Angeles Basin Using Historic Surface Observation Data   Jeffrey A. Baars, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and M. Witiw, A. Al-Habash, and J. Ramaprasad 11:00 AM J3.9 Fog in the Los Angeles Basin: Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation   Michael R. Witiw, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and J. A. Baars and J. Ramaprasad 11:15 AM J3.10 Experimental forecasting of dry season “storminess” over Florida and the southeast United States from the ENSO signal using multiple linear regression techniques   Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and R. A. Almeida 11:30 AM J3.11 Predictability of anomalous storm tracks   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland 11:45 AM J3.12 Seasonal forecasting of strong winds over Europe   J. P. Palutikof, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. Holt and T. J. Osborn 12:00 PM Grand Poster Luncheon   2:00 PM J3.13 A Space-Time Model for Seasonal Hurricane Prediction   Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Niu and J. B. Elsner 2:15 PM J3.14 Predictive United States' hurricane climate   James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. H. Bossak
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday Session 5 Climate Model Diagnostics: New Methods
Organizer: Gerald Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
8:30 AM 5.1 Diagnostics of vertically integrated fluxes of energy.   Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Stepaniak 9:00 AM 5.2 Contrasting of numerical uncertainties of climate models in simulating reversibility   Donald R. Johnson, University of Wisconsin, Madison,, WI; and T. K. Schaack, A. J. Lenzen, and T. H. Zapotocny 9:30 AM 5.3 Analyzing atmospheric general circulation models with a linearized single column model   John W. Bergman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh 9:45 AM 5.4 Diagnosing the anthropogenically-forced signal in a coupled climate model   David W. Pierce, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and T. P. Barnett 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
	8:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday Session 6 Observed Climate Change II: Data and Extremes
Organizer: Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:30 AM 6.1 Estimating urbanization and land use effects on surface temperatures   Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay 8:45 AM 6.2 The FCC Integrated Surface Hourly Database, a New Resource of Global Climate Data   J. Neal Lott, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Baldwin 9:00 AM 6.3 Evidence for a recent advance in the timing of a surface-air warming   Daria Scott, St. Cloud State University, Saint Cloud, MN; and T. J. Blasing and D. P. Kaiser 9:15 AM 6.4 Complete Global Radiosonde Instrument Metadata Inferred by Examining Multiple Temperature and Humidity Time Series   Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 9:30 AM 6.5 Comparison of methods for adjusting inhomogeneous radiosonde temperature data   Melissa Free, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD 9:45 AM 6.6 Comparison of Lower-Tropospheric Temperatures at Low and High Elevation Radiosonde Sites   Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Free 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM 6.7 Recent climate change in the Caribbean   Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. Tayloe 10:45 AM 6.8 Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during 2nd half of the 20th century   Lisa Alexander, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and P. Frich, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson 11:00 AM 6.9 Variability and trends in short-duration extreme events in the U.S.   Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. Andsager and D. R. Easterling 11:15 AM 6.10 Trends and variability in winter cold and warm spells over Canada   Amir Shabbar, MSC, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Bonsal 11:30 AM 6.11 Very Heavy Precipitation over Land: Estimates Based on a New Global Daily Precipitation Data Set   Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCAR and NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight and T. R. Karl 11:45 AM 6.12 Hydro-climatic factors and socioeconomic impacts of the recent record drop in Laurentian Great Lakes water levels   Frank H. Quinn, NOAA/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. A. Assel and C. E. Sellinger
	9:00 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday Joint Poster Session 1 Land Amosphere Interactions (Joint with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ
JP1.1 Warm-season land-atmosphere interactions in the Nebraska Sand Hills   Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson   JP1.2 Spatial-temporal variability of the groundwater level   María del Valle Venencio, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; and N. O. García   JP1.3 Soil moisture-rainfall feedback on the North American Monsoon system   Jianjun Xu, New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology, Socorro, NM; and E. E. Small   JP1.4 Quantifying Land-Atmosphere Interactions at the Norman Mesonet Site: A Sensitivity Analysis Using the Oregon State University 1-D PBL Model   Jeffrey B. Basara, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford and M. B. Ek   JP1.5 Diurnal relationships between soil heat flux and net radiation over a range of surface conditions applied to land surface energy balance modeling   Joseph Anthony Santanello Jr., Boston University, Boston, MA; and M. A. Friedl JP1.6 Parameterization of Jarvis-Stewart model in a deciduous secondary Forest In Japan and comparison with European and Amazon forests   Koji Tamai, Forestry & Forest Products Research Institute, Kyoto, Japan   JP1.7 Modeling of evaporation from a forest floor and application to a basin   Koji Tamai, Forestry & Forest Products Research Institute, Kyoto, Japan   JP1.8 Estimation of Seasonal Changes in Soil Moisture Storage Based on Water Balance Calculations   Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and P. A. Viterbo, D. Lüthi, and C. Schär   JP1.9 Diurnal cycles in river discharge: a key to understanding snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and infiltration   Jessica D. Lundquist, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA   JP1.10 Assessment of implementing satellite-derived land cover data in the Eta model   Nicole P. Kurkowski, University of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud   JP1.11 About of the 1970/71 climatic jump on the "Rio de la Plata" basin   Norberto O. García, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; and W. M. Vargas and M. D. V. Venencio
	10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday Session 5 Climate Model Diagnostics: New Methods, Cont.
Organizer: Kevin Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 5.5 Long-Term Regional Climate Simulations Driven By Two Global Reanalyses and a GCM For The Western U.S   L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and X. Bian and Y. Qian 10:45 AM 5.6 A dynamical feedback in the climate system: analysis of stability and sensitivity of an atmospheric GCM coupled to oceanic upper mixed layer   Vladimir A. Alexeev, Danish Center for Earth System Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 5.7 The Effect of Tropical Dry Zones on the Sensitivity of the Tropical Climate   Dejie Sun, Chinese Acadmemy of Sciences, Beijing, China 11:00 AM 5.8 Diagnostics of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model   Shan Sun, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. Bleck 11:15 AM 5.9 Climate model diagnosis: evaluating a climate model as a NWP forecast model   James S. Boyle, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and G. L. Potter, M. Fiorino, and J. J. Hnilo 11:30 AM 5.10 Implied ocean heat transports in recent AGCM simulations: sensitivity to the surface energy budget   Peter Gleckler, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. E. Taylor
	12:00 PM-2:00 PM, Tuesday Grand Poster Luncheon
	2:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday Poster Session 1 Poster Session: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
P1.1 Regional synoptic climatology study of the Mt. Washington area   John H. Gillman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and B. J. D'Agostino, T. O. Markle, N. C. Witcraft, J. P. Koermer, and B. D. Keim   P1.2 Satellite Observed Land Skin Temperature Variations: 1981-1998   Menglin Jin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. E. Dickinson and E. Kalnay   P1.3 Satellite observations of long-term changes in tropical cloud and outgoing longwave radiation from 1985 to 1998   Pi-Huan Wang, Science and Technology Corporation, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, T. Wong, P. Minnis, and L. B. Vann   P1.4 Sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric energy balance to ENSO-related SST changes: Comparison of climate model simulations to observed responses   Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Fitzjarrald, S. Marshall, R. Oglesby, and J. Roads   P1.5 Soil Moisture Profile Variability and its Potential Impact on Climate Spectra   Wanru Wu, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and R. E. Dickinson and M. A. Geller   P1.6 Simulation of the North American MOnsoon in Different Pacific SST Regimes Using RAMS   Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Tucson, AZ; and R. A. Pielke, Sr. and G. E. Liston   P1.7 Spatial-temporal structure of the interannual variability of precipitation over "Rio de la Plata" basin   Carlos M. Krepper Sr., Universidad Nacional del Sur, Bahia Blanca, Argentina; and N. O. García   P1.8 The atmospheric response of the tropical western Pacific to the implementation of a new infrared radiation parameterization in a regional climate model   Johnny Seymore, Howard University, Washington, DC   P1.9 Trend and interannual variations in air temperature over the Iberian peninsula   C. Rodriguez-Puebla, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain; and L. A. Garcia-Casado, M. D. Frías, J. Saenz, and J. Zubillaga P1.10 Using a parallel climate model to investigate hydrological feedbacks in the climate system   Marcia L. Branstetter, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. S. Famiglietti and W. M. Washington   P1.11 Using CERES Data to Study Climate Change   Susan E. Sorlie, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA   P1.12 Using weather generators and agroclimate indices for climate change impact assessments   Henry N. Hayhoe, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and D. R. Lapen   P1.13 Variability of severe winters in the Mexico basin during the XXth century   Ernesto Jáuregui, National Univ. Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and E. Luyando and M. Casasola   P1.14 Regional precipitation variations and atmospheric conditions over the Sand Hills region of Nebraska   Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe and J. W. Kaiser   P1.15 A comparison of the weather in U.S. cities during the 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Nino's   Heather L. Honnette, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith   P1.16 A New Global Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data Set   Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson, P. Y. Groisman, D. R. Easterling, R. S. Vose, and D. S. Ezell   P1.17 An integrated assessment of land cover change, long-term climate variability, and land use in the Southern Aral Sea region   Elena Tsvetsinskaya, Boston University, Boston, MA; and E. V. Glushko and B. I. Vainberg   P1.18 Climate Data at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences DAAC   George N. Serafino, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. P. Ahmad P1.19 ENSO-Model response to observed estimates of stochastic forcing   Javier Zavala-Garay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. M. Moore and C. L. Perez   P1.20 Impacts of ENSO on United States snowfall frequencies   Jillien M. Patten, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. R. Smith and J. J. O'Brien P1.21 Initiation of El Nino and its impact on paleo-climate   Allen Lowrie, Resource Finders, Inc., Picayune, MS; and R. Hamiter   P1.22 Interactions of monsoons and subtropical anticyclones   Todd D. Ringler, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall   P1.23 Investigation of Seasonal Sea-Ice Thickness Variability in the Ross Sea   Beth Schellenberg, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and T. L. DeLiberty, C. A. Geiger, J. Silberman, and A. P. Worby   P1.24 ISCCP Data Available for Climate Variability Research   Susan Haberer, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. L. Morris and N. A. Ritchey   P1.25 MODIS Cloud, Aerosol, and Water Vapor Products for Climate and Global Change Studies   Suraiya P. Ahmad, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. D. King, J. V. Koziana, G. G. Leptoukh, G. N. Serafino, and A. K. Sharma   P1.26 On the Pacific Ocean regime shift   Catherine A. Stephens, NOAA/NODC, Silver Spring, Maryland; and S. Levitus, J. Antonov, and T. P. Boyer   P1.27 Overview of PCMDI's software system   Charles Doutriaux, PCMDI/LLNL, Livermore, CA; and D. N. Williams and PCMDI software team   P1.28 Data and products available at the Surface Reference Data Center   Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey and J. S. Greene   P1.29 Urban effects on regional surface temperature series in South Korea   Youngeun Choi, METRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and K. Y. Nam, W. -. T. Kwon, and I. C. Shin   P1.30 Downscaled Regional Climate Simulations for the Mid-Atlantic States Using RAMS   Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and G. Stenchikov and A. Robock   P1.31 Measuring and Modeling NO Emissions from Biosolid Amended Soils   Paul A. Roelle, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and V. P. Aneja
	2:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday Session 7 Climate Model Diagnostics: Variability
Organizer: Don Johnson, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
2:00 PM 7.1 Should we expect climate models to converge when we increase resolution?   Vicky Pope, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and R. Stratton 2:30 PM 7.2 NAO Validation in Climate Models   Mark J. Rodwell, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom 3:00 PM 7.3 Diagnosing the sensitivity of extratropical subseasonal variability to tropical forcing in different GCMs   Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Winkler and P. D. Sardeshmukh 3:15 PM 7.4 Evaluating GCMs using Diurnal Variability   Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
	2:00 PM-4:59 PM, Tuesday Session 8 Interannual Variability II: Observational Studies
Organizer: C. Bruce Baker, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
2:00 PM 8.1 Bias corrections for historic sea surface temperatures based on marine air temperatures   Thomas M. Smith, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Reynolds 2:15 PM 8.2 An Improved In Situ and Satellite SST Analysis   Richard W. Reynolds, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang 2:30 PM 8.3 Threshold sea surface temperature for initiation of convection   Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and J. E. Meyerson 2:45 PM 8.4 Examining the effect of Concurrent SST anomalies on Caribbean Rainfall   Jacqueline M. Spence, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica; and M. A. Taylor 8.5 The influence of Sahel rainfall on the summer circulation of the North Atlantic   James W. Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO 3:00 PM 8.6 The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. B. Goldenberg, A. M. Mestas-Nunez, and W. M. Gray 3:15 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   3:45 PM 8.7 Analyzing and Understanding Climate Variability in the Caribbean Islands   Tannecia S. Stephenson, University of the West Indies, Kingtson, Jamaica; and A. A. Chen 4:00 PM 8.8 Modulation of Seasonal Precipitation in northern Venezuela and Antecedent Rinfall to the Floods and Landslides of December 1999   Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY 4:15 PM 8.9 The Influence of the tropical Atlantic vs. the tropical Pacific on Caribbean Rainfall   Michael A. Taylor, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica; and D. B. Enfield and A. A. Chen 8.10 Significance of the Interannual Seesaw between the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows in the Interannual Variability over the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere   Meiji Honda, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan; and H. Nakamura 4:29 PM 8.11 Wet Versus Dry Periods in the Midwest During January 1998 (El Nino) and January 1999 (La Nina)   Dayton G. Vincent, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Giovannettone, A. Lese, J. Adolphson, S. Lashley, S. O'Conner, B. O'Hara, T. Reaugh, and G. Lamberty 4:44 PM 8.12 Multi-scale variability of the river runoff system in East Asia and its long-term link to precipitation variability   Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. -. F. Sun, K. -. M. W. Lau, and J. Ji
	3:00 PM-7:30 PM, Tuesday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:00 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 4 Land Atmposphere Interactions: Part II (Joint with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
J4.1 Impact of surface conditions on the North American Monsoon simulations   Kingtse C. Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Kanamitsu and H. M. Juang 3:00 PM J4.2 Basin-scale hydrologic budgets from ERA-40 for the Mississippi, Mackenzie and Amazon rivers   Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT; and P. A. Viterbo 3:15 PM Coffee Break in the Exhibit Hall   3:45 PM J4.3 Coupled climate-runoff simulations: a process study of current and a warmer climate in the Rhine basin   Jan Kleinn, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Frei, J. Gurtz, P. L. Vidale, and C. Schär 4:00 PM J4.4 The Effects of Implementing TOPMODEL Concepts in the NOAH Model   C. D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 4:15 PM J4.5 The effect of errors in snow assimilation on land surface modeling   Brian A. Cosgrove, SAIC and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser 4:30 PM J4.6 Modeling the impact of Irrigation on mid-summer Surface Energy Budget and the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) in the U.S. High Plains   Jimmy O. Adegoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, J. L. Eastman, R. Mahmood, and K. G. Hubbard 4:45 PM J4.7 Evaluation of ETA Model Atmospheric Water Budget Components from MOdel Location Time Series (MOLTS)   Evgeney S. Yarosh, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. W. Higgins 5:00 PM J4.8 Influence of hydrologic memory on terrestrial impacts of ENSO   Praveen Kumar, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. Chen
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 5 Statistical Downscaling (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of Califonia, La Jolla, CA
4:00 PM J5.1 Sensitivity of Climate Change Estimates Using Statistical Downscaling to the Method and Predictors   Radan Huth, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic 4:15 PM J5.2 Modeling stochastic structure of daily temperature as downscaling of GCM fields   Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. G. Craig 4:30 PM J5.3 A spatial time series framework for modeling daily precipitation at regional scales   Phaedon C. Kyriakidis, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and N. L. Miller and J. Kim 4:45 PM J5.4 Regional climate change scenarios in Atlantic Canada utilizing statistical downscaling techniques: Preliminary Results   Gary S. Lines, MSC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and E. Barrow 5:00 PM J5.5 North Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios   Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and V. R. Swail 5:15 PM J5.6 Possible climate change impacts on ozone in the Great Lakes Region: Some implications for respiratory illness   Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. P. J. Scott and M. L. Wilson
	4:00 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday Session 9 Climate Model Diagnostics: Clouds and Radiation, Part I
Organizer: Gerald Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
4:00 PM 9.1 Paper has been moved to Session 15, new paper number 15.7   4:01 PM 9.2 Cloud structure anomalies over the tropical Pacific during the 1997/98 El Nino   Robert D. Cess, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. H. Zhang, P. H. Wang, and B. A. Wielicki 4:30 PM 9.3 Characteristics of Cloud Radiative Forcing Over East Asia   Wei-Chyung Wang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. -. S. Kau, H. -. H. Hsu, and C. -. H. Tu 4:45 PM 9.4 Validating the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks in NCAR CCM3   Lianzeng Liang, State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Beijing, China 5:00 PM 9.5 Study of Large Ensemble of Cloud Systems from EOS Satellite Observations for Cloud Model Evaluation   Kuan-Man Xu, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong, L. Parker, B. A. Wielicki, D. A. Randall, M. Branson, D. H. Wang, and B. Barkstrom
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions End for the Day
Wednesday, 16 January 2002
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday President's Symposium
	9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
	10:00 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday President's Symposium (Continued)
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-4:44 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 6 Surface/Atmosphere Interactions Part I: (Joint between 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 16th Conference on Hydrology)
Organizers: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
1:30 PM J6.1 A Retrospective and Outlook for GCIP/GAPP Contributions to Land Surface and Land-Atmosphere Modeling   Richard G. Lawford, NOAA/Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 2:00 PM J6.2 Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?   Robert J. Oglesby, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Marshall, D. J. Erickson III, J. O. Roads, and F. R. Robertson 2:15 PM J6.3 Evaluating the Impact of Realistic Land Conditions in Dynamical Seasonal Predictions   C. Adam Schlosser, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. A. Dirmeyer J6.4 Does landsurface matter in weather and climate?   Martin Claussen, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany 2:29 PM J6.5 Investigation of deep soil temperature-atmosphere interaction in North America   Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and L. Yi, M. Ruml, and R. Vasic 2:44 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   2:59 PM Exhibit Hours 3:00–7:30 p.m.   3:29 PM J6.6 Preliminary Analysis of Coupled Land-Atmosphere Interactions in AMIP II Simulations   Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and P. Irannejad, A. Henderson-Sellers, K. McGuffie, E. Clayton, and S. Sharmeen 3:59 PM J6.7 The impact of soil moisture initialization on seasonal precipitation forecasts   Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez and L. Tyahla 4:14 PM J6.8 Integration of Remote Sensing and In-Situ Data for Global Land-Atmosphere Interaction Studies   Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 4:29 PM J6.9 Weekly to Monthly Predictability of the Early-Summer Precipitation in the LSA-East   Da-Lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and W. Zheng and Y. Xue
	1:30 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 7 Joint session with the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
1:30 PM J7.1 Potential Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and W. Stern, C. Jones, and W. K. M. Lau 1:45 PM J7.2 Persistent locally coupled anomalies in the ocean-atmosphere   Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay and M. Cai 2:00 PM J7.3 Inter-decadal storm track variations as seen in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and radiosonde observations   Nili Harnik, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. K. M. Chang 2:15 PM J7.4 Surface turbulent heat fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean synthesized from satellite measurements and NWP model analyses   Bomin Sun, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and L. Yu and R. A. Weller 2:30 PM J7.5 Feasibility of reanalysis before the radiosonde era   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and P. D. Sardeshmukh 2:45 PM J7.6 Long-lead wintertime potential predictability:an assessment from NCEP's climate model   Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD 3:00 PM J7.7 Design of the framework of high-resolution global atmospheric models   Bin Wang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 3:15 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday Session 10 Climate Model Diagnostics: Clouds and Radiation, Part II
Organizer: Gerald Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
1:30 PM 10.1 Direct radiative forcing due to absorbing aerosols   V.K. Saxena, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. -. S. Im 1:45 PM 10.2 Radiative Forcing of Tropical Anvil Clouds   Bing Lin, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, L. H. Chambers, Y. Hu, and K. M. Xu 2:00 PM 10.3 Measurements of Radiative Forcing Beneath Clouds from Greenhouse Gas   W. F. J. Evans, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin 2:15 PM 10.4 A Simple Moist Model of the Hadley and Walker Circulation: Role of Cloud Radiative Forcing   Baijun Tian, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and V. Ramanathan 2:30 PM 10.5 A cloud resolving model as a cloud parameterization in a GCM: Preliminary results   Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall 2:45 PM 10.6 Effects of multiple scattering and cloud inhomogeneity on IR radiative transfer   Everette Joseph, Howard University, Washington, DC; and Q. Min
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday Session 11 Monsoons: Observational and Modeling Studies, Part I
Organizer: Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 11.1 On the Origin of Monsoons   Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen 1:45 PM 11.2 Monsoon predictability of ECMWF ensemble seasonal simulations   Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan 2:00 PM 11.3 The interseasonal variability of Asian summer monsoon   P. L. S. Rao, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India 2:15 PM 11.4 The Observed Relationship between Snow Cover, Soil Moisture, and the Asian Monsoon   Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and M. Mu, K. Y. Vinnikov, and D. A. Robinson 2:30 PM 11.5 Projected Future Changes in South Asian Monsoon Climate   Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Arblaster 2:45 PM 11.6 Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs   Man Li C. Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, I. S. Kang, and D. Waliser
	3:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday Session 12 Climate Change Modeling
Organizer: Brian Eder, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC
3:30 PM 12.1 Ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcings   Anthony J. Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, T. R. Knutson, and R. J. Stouffer 3:45 PM 12.2 Solar Variability and Climate System Response in Ensemble Simulations of 20th Century Climate   Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Washington, T. M. L. Wigley, J. M. Arblaster, and A. Dai 4:00 PM 12.3 Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Change Projections   Chris E. Forest, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. D. Webster, J. M. Reilly, A. P. Sokolov, P. H. Stone, H. D. Jacoby, and R. G. Prinn 4:15 PM 12.4 Polar climate and sea ice in coupled NCAR GCMs and in recent observations   John W. Weatherly, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab, Hanover, NH 4:30 PM 12.5 North Atlantic Ocean response to future anthropogenic forcing in a coupled GCM   Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and W. G. Strand 4:45 PM 12.6 Stationary Wave Responses to Climate Change in the GFDL GCM   Mingfang Ting, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Joseph and P. J. Kushner 5:00 PM 12.7 On the mechanism of the enhanced greenhouse effect: a radiative and dynamical perspective   J. Ray Bates, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 5:15 PM 12.8 A comparison of the behavior of different AOGCMs in transient climate change experiments   Andrei Sokolov, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and C. Forest and P. Stone
	3:30 PM-4:45 PM, Wednesday Session 13 Using ARM and Other Sources for Diagnostics
Organizer: Ric Cedarwall, LLNL, Livermore, CA
3:30 PM 13.1 Examining model sensitivities to cloud microphysics using a single-column model, NCEP forecasts and ARM data   Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville 4:00 PM 13.2 Variability in Tropical Broadband Radiation Budget: Observations versus Modeled Results   Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, F. R. Robertson, J. Susskind, H. Jacobowitz, R. Allan, A. Slingo, D. A. Randall, B. J. Soden, C. T. Gordon, J. Kiehl, and S. K. Yang 4:15 PM 13.3 The variability of cirrus clouds derived from 4 years of ARM data; relationships to the large-scale meteorology   Erik N. Vernon, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. G. Mace 4:30 PM 13.4 Convection and Large-scale Quasi-equilibrium in Midlatitude Continental Environment   Guang J. Zhang, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA 13.5 Evaluation of the Entraining-Detraining Plume Model applied to the cumulus parameterization of the large-scale model   Jung-Hee Ryu, Penn State University, State College, PA; and J. B. Ahn and J. H. Oh
	5:00 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Reception (Cash Bar)
Thursday, 17 January 2002
	8:30 AM-4:45 PM, Thursday Joint Session 8 Surface/Atmosphere Interactions: Part I (Joint with 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 16th Conference on Hydrology)
Organizers: Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; Randall D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:30 AM J8.1 Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in Amazonia   Carlos A. Nobre, Brazilian Weather and Climate Forecasting Center, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil 9:00 AM J8.2 Interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors in Amazon rainfall   Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and T. -. C. Chen and K. J. St. Croix 9:15 AM J8.3 The Local and Global Effects of Amazon Deforestation   David Werth, Duke University, Durham, NC; and R. Avissar 9:30 AM J8.4 Human influences on the global climate system—The first order effect of landuse change and landscape dynamics   Roger A. Pielke Sr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. N. Chase, J. L. Eastman, and M. Coughenour 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM J8.5 Modeling the impact of the Amazon deforestation in South American climate with the Eta/SSiB model   Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica, Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and S. C. Chou and Y. Xue 10:45 AM J8.6 Impact of Land-Use Management Practices in Florida on the Regional Climate of South Florida and the Everglades   Curtis H. Marshall Jr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., L. T. Steyaert, T. M. Cronin, D. A. Willard, J. W. Jones, T. J. Smith, and J. R. Irons 11:00 AM J8.7 Influence of land use on the regional climate of southwest Australia   Deepak K. Ray, Foretsry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana; and U. S. Nair, R. M. Welch, W. Su, and T. Kikuchi 11:15 AM J8.8 Sensitivity of great floods to radiatively forced climate change   P. C. D. Milly, USGS, Princeton, NJ; and R. T. Wetherald, T. L. Delworth, and K. A. Dunne 11:45 AM J8.9 Uncertainty analysis of California streamflow using multiple climate change scenarios   Norman L. Miller, Univ. of Calfornia, Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA; and K. E. Bashford 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM J8.10 Effects of mesoscale terrain on climate change signal in the western U.S   Jinwon Kim, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 1:45 PM J8.11 Summer Dryness and Greenhouse Warming: A Process Study for the Midwestern United States   Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and J. S. Pal, E. A. B. Eltahir, and C. Schär 2:00 PM J8.12 Simulating Carbon and Energy Exchanges over the Amazonia using a photosynthesis model within SSiB   Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue, X. Zhan, and G. J. Collatz 2:15 PM J8.13 Climate, carbon and the boreal ecosystem   Forrest G. Hall, NASA/GSFC, Beltsville, MD; and A. K. Betts, S. Frolking, R. Brown, J. Chen, S. Halldin, D. P. Lettenmaier, and J. Schafer 2:45 PM J8.14 Impact of remotely sensed land surface variables on simulations of energy   Stephen D. Prince, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Xue, J. S. Borak, S. O. Los, and A. C. Gleason 3:00 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   3:29 PM Exhibit Hours 3:00–6:15 p.m.   3:30 PM J8.15 Improving the representation of arid regions of northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula in climate models by incorporating MODIS derived surface albedo   Elena Tsvetsinskaya, Boston University, Boston, MA; and C. Schaaf, F. Gao, A. Strahler, R. E. Dickinson, and X. Zeng 3:45 PM J8.16 Importance of winds and soil moistures to the U.S. summertime drought of 1988: A GCM simulation study   David M. Mocko, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. C. Sud 4:15 PM J8.17 Improving the Representation of Snow Processes in Global Climate Models   Zong-Liang Yang, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and G. Y. Niu 4:30 PM J8.18 Modeling Crop Growth Using Modified NCAR LSM 1.0   Guo-Yue Niu, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and Z. L. Yang
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Thursday Session 14 Monsoons: Observational and Modeling Studies, Part II
Organizer: Sharon Leduc, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
14.1 The impact of SST anomalies on the interannual variability of the North American monsoon   John D. Farrara, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. Y. Yu and J. Kim 8:30 AM 14.2 Frequency analysis of intraseasonal variations in the North American Monsoon System   Eileen A. Hall-McKim, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. Nolin, F. Lo, M. Serreze, and M. Clark 8:44 AM 14.3 Diagnostics of the Summer Circulation Changes over North America at Seasonal and Interannual Time Scales   Renu Joseph, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. Ting and H. Wang 8:59 AM 14.4 La Niña impact on summer monsoon in Brazil   Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil 9:14 AM 14.5 Interannual variability of the West African monsoon in the NCEP SFM and reanalysis   Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Kanamitsu and V. Kumar 9:29 AM 14.6 Contrasting characteristics of the 1993 and 1994 East Asian summer monsoon: Observation and simulation   Wen-Shung Kau, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. -. H. Hsu and R. -. T. Chen 9:44 AM 14.7 Land-sea heating contrast in an idealized Asian summer monsoon   Chia Chou, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 9:59 AM 14.8 Spatio-temporal scales of Indian Ocean monsoonal cloud systems in geosynchronous satellite images and a general circulation model   Eric Wilcox, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and V. Ramanathan 10:14 AM Coffee Break in Poster Sesssion Room
	8:30 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday Session 15 Climate Model Diagnostics: AMIP
Organizer: Curt Covey, LLNL, Livermore, CA
8:30 AM 15.1 The Atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP): progress and plans   Peter J. Gleckler, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. E. Taylor 9:00 AM 15.2 Coupled ocean-atmosphere vs. prescribed-SST simulations: effect of a "perfect ocean"   Curt Covey, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. M. AchutaRao, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, and M. F. Wehner 9:15 AM 15.3 Summertime Intraseasonal Variability in the AMIP Simulations   Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. -. S. Kau and J. -. L. Chu 9:30 AM 15.4 Assessment of atmospheric angular momentum parameters in AMIP-2 simulations   David A. Salstein, AER, Lexington, MA; and R. D. Rosen, J. O. Dickey, and S. L. Marcus 9:45 AM 15.5 Tropospheric Temperature Sensitivity from the AMIP II Experiment   Justin Jay Hnilo, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. R. Christy 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM 15.6 Diagnostic analyses of short-term climate variability in NASA/GSFC general circulation models   Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and D. P. Robinson 10:45 AM 15.7 Predictable Skill and Its Associated Sea-Surface Temperature Variability in an Ensemble Climate Simulation   C. Adam Schlosser, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman
	10:30 AM-3:30 PM, Thursday Session 16 Interannual Variability III: Observational Studies
Organizer: Richard W. Reynolds, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
10:30 AM 16.1 The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean and its decadal modulation   Bohua Huang, COLA, Calverton, MD; and J. Shukla 10:45 AM 16.2 Ongoing drought in southwest Asia: The role of large-scale climate variability and the tropical oceans   Mathew A. Barlow, International /Research Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and H. Cullen and B. Lyon 11:00 AM 16.3 Relationships between ENSO and the statistics of precipitation extremes in Brazil   Wei Shi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. W. Higgins and E. Yarosh 11:15 AM 16.4 Observations of Atlantic Convergence Zones by QuikSCAT and TRMM   Xiaosu Xie, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu 11:30 AM 16.5 Sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric energy balance to ENSO-related SST changes: How well can we quantify hydrologic and radiative responses?   Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Fitzjarrald and B. J. Sohn 11:45 AM 16.6 The Response of Tropical Precipitation to ENSO   Wesley Berg, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Kummerow 12:00 PM Lunch Break   16.7 Relationships between climate variability and the statistics of winter precipitation extremes in the United States   Yaping Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. W. Higgins 16.8 Impact of snow variability on the remote response to ENSO over North America   Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Kumar, W. Wang, H. M. H. Juang, and M. Kanamitsu 1:29 PM 16.9 Interannual variability of snowfall events and snowfall-to-liquid water amounts in Southwest Missouri   Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and D. Albert, R. Hearst, C. Allmeyer, and P. S. Market 1:43 PM 16.10 Interdecadal variations in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks   Edmund K. M. Chang, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 16.11 The climatology and interannual variability of satellite-observed precipitation in the Pan American region   Scott Curtis, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and G. J. Huffman 1:57 PM 16.12 Global oceanic precipitation from 1948 to the present: A reconstruction of historical gauge observations   Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chen, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and T. M. Smith 2:12 PM 16.13 Decadal variability in tropical Pacific climate   James Carton, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. C. Mo 2:27 PM 16.14 An investigation of the varying extratropical circulation response to ENSO warm events in the South Pacific   S. A. Harangozo, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom 2:42 PM 16.15 Putting the 1997–98 El Nino in historical perspective   N. K. Larkin, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison 2:57 PM Coffee Break
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday Session 17 Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
11:00 AM 17.1 Changes in Tropical Ocean Circulation Related to Pacific Decadal Climate Variability   Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
	3:00 PM-6:30 PM, Thursday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:30 PM-4:30 PM, Thursday Session 16 Interannual Variability III: Observational Studies, cont.
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:30 PM 16.16 Wind speed and direction analyses for a group of southeast surface stations   Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley, M. J. Parker, and M. E. Brown 3:45 PM 16.17 A Soil Moisture Analysis of the Drought of 1998 using the Oklahoma Mesonet   Brad G. Illston, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara and K. C. Crawford 4:00 PM 16.18 Intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate variability over the continental United States: 1932–1999   Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX; and D. R. Upchurch 4:15 PM 16.19 The Diurnal Cycle of Dew Point Across Oklahoma's Winter Wheat Belt   Matthew J. Haugland, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford
	5:00 PM, Thursday Closing Event Begins
	5:00 PM-6:15 PM, Thursday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	5:15 PM, Thursday Symposium Ends
	6:30 PM-7:30 PM, Thursday Event Presentation
	7:30 PM, Thursday 9 Tropical Party

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