Program: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change (91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Short Course Registration

WeatherFest

Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Registration continues through January 27

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Plenary Session

Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate

Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; and the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International )

9:00 AM

CWAC

Recorded Presentation

Panel Discussion

Communicating Weather and Climate

Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; and the IMPACTS: Weather 2010 )

Panelists: Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune; Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre; Doyle Rice, USA Today; Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council

Moderator: Robert T. Ryan, NBC4 TV

9:00 AM

Panelist: Thomas E. Skilling

Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV, Chicago, IL

9:10 AM

Panelist: Claire Martin

Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada

9:20 AM

Panelist: Doyle Rice

Doyle Rice, USA Today, Washington, DC

9:30 AM

Panelist: Martin Storksdieck

Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, Washington, DC

Spouses' Coffee

Coffee Break

Joint Session 1

Stratosphere and Climate I

Location: 3B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Jessica L. Neu, JPL

11:00 AM

J1.1

Tropopause transition layer cooling and tropical cyclones

Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J1.2

Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding

Dian J. Seidel, NOAA, College Park, MD; and N. P. Gillett, J. Lanzante, K. P. Shine, and P. Thorne

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J1.3

Could stratospheric water vapor anomalies influence regional climate?

Amanda C. Maycock, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and M. M. Joshi, A. A. Scaife, and K. P. Shine

Recorded Presentation

Session 1A

Climate Analysis I

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

11:00 AM

1A.1

The climate of 2010 in historical perspective

Derek S. Arndt, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. Sanchez-Lugo, C. Fenimore, R. R. Heim Jr., and J. Blunden

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

11:15 AM

1A.2

Extreme weather over parts of the Northern Hemisphere during winter 2009–2010

Lance Bosart, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and H. M. Archambault and J. M. Cordeira

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1A.3

NOAA's 1981–2010 climate normals: a preview

Anthony Arguez, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and S. Applequist, I. Durre, L. Ross, M. F. Squires, R. S. Vose, and W. Yin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (79.1 kB)

11:45 AM

1A.4

An analysis of extreme precipitation events in the US during spring 2010

Wayne Higgins, NOAA/OAR/CPO, College Park, MD; and V. Kousky and P. Xie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (474.5 kB)

Session 1B

Climate Prediction

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

11:00 AM

1B.1

The 2009–2010 El Niño and Florida dry season severe weather—a reality check for the limits of predictability

Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.3 MB)

11:15 AM

1B.2

Variability of the MJO in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecasts

Scott Weaver, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang, M. Chen, and A. Kumar

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1B.3

A Framework for Assessing Operational Model MJO Forecasts

Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1B.4

Are the more extreme seasonal climate conditions easier to predict?

Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Joint Session 2

Stratosphere and Climate II: Response to Surface Forcing

Location: 3B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates

1:30 PM

J2.1

ENSO impact in the Wave Forcing of the Stratospheric Zonal-Mean Flow

Erwan Monier, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and B. C. Weare

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J2.2

El Nino-Southern Oscillation and stratospheric sudden warmings: a re-evaluation

Amy Hawes Butler, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and L. M. Polvani

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J2.3

The impact of surface temperature variability on the climate change response in the NH polar vortex

Barbara Winter, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. S. Bourqui

Handout (1.1 MB)

2:15 PM

J2.4

Abrupt circulation response of the stratosphere-troposphere coupled system to climate change-like forcing in a relatively simple AGCM

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and E. P. Gerber and L. M. Polvani

Recorded Presentation

Session 2A

Climate Analysis II

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University

1:30 PM

2A.1

Long-term changes of physical mechanisms in the seasonal cycle of the summertime precipitation variability in Korea

Joon-Woo Roh, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Kim

1:45 PM

2A.2

On the relationship between large scale dynamics and clouds: a decadal climatology of cloud properties for the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Stuart M. Evans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. T. Marchand and T. P. Ackerman

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2A.3

Low cloud structure, variability, and patterns in the primary subtropical stratocumulus regimes using MODIS and ECMWF Analysis/Re-Analysis Data

Terence L. Kubar, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and J. L. F. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2A.4

The mechanisms of interannual variability within the North Pacific storm track

Sandra M. Penny, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Battisti and G. H. Roe

Session 2B

Observed Changes I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Xuebin Zhang, EC

1:30 PM

2B.1

An investigation of slow-moving East Coast Winter Storms during the past 55 years

Jase E. Bernhardt, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Ithaca, NY

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2B.2

Changes in cloudiness in the U.S. from surface observations

Melissa Free, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Sun

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2B.3

Meteorological causes of observed extreme precipitation trends in the U.S

Kenneth E. Kunkel, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Easterling, B. Gleason, D. A. R. Kristovich, L. Stoecker, and R. A. Smith

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2B.4

Stratus-impacts on observed long-term cooling-trends of summer max-temperatures in coastal California

James Thomas, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and S. Padrick and R. Bornstein

Recorded Presentation

Joint Poster Session 1

Stratospheric Climate and Coupling Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

188

Vertical structure and downward propagation mechanism in the seasonal cycle of stratospheric variability in the northern hemispheric polar region

Kwang Y. Kim, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Na

189

The seasonal cycle of the wintertime stratospheric ozone mixing ratio in northern hemispheric polar region and its relationship with stratospheric temperature variability

Kwang Y. Kim, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. M. Lee

190

Role of zonally asymmetric ozone in modulating downward influence exerted by steady, transient and episodic wave forcing

John R. Albers, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and T. Nathan

Handout (2.6 MB)

191

Quality of reanalysis data during stratospheric vortex weakening and intensification events

Patrick Martineau, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and S. W. Son

Handout (1.2 MB)

192

Predictability of stratospheric warming in an idealized model

Lantao Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and W. A. Robinson and G. Chen

Handout (1.6 MB)

193

Separating the effects of GHGs and ODSs in past and future ozone changes

Robert W. Portmann, NOAA, Boulder, CO

194

A model study of the impact of source gas changes on the stratosphere for 1850–2100

Eric L. Fleming, SSAI and GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. H. Jackman

Handout (233.8 kB)

Poster Session 1

Poster Session I

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Organizers: Xuebin Zhang, EC; David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

136

The climatology of inland winds from tropical cyclones in the eastern United States

Michael C. Kruk, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and E. Gibney, D. H. Levinson, and M. F. Squires

Manuscript (28.3 kB)

137

Assessing climate change and variability in the coastal zone: overview of the Pacific storms climatology products

David H. Levinson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC ; and M. C. Kruk and J. Marra

138

Analysis of freezing rain patterns in the South Central United States: 1979–2009

Jessica Blunden, NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC; and D. S. Arndt

Manuscript (296.8 kB)

139

Variability of chlorophyll associated with ENSO and its biological feedback in the Equatorial Pacific

Jong-yeon Park, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. S. Kug, J. S. Park, S. W. Yeh, and C. J. Jang

140

Light rain events change over North America, Europe and Asia for 1973–2009

Yun Qian, PNNL, Richland, WA; and D. Gong and R. Leung

141

The role of quasi-biennial variability in the spring 2010 circulation anomalies over the Western United States

James A. Johnstone, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

142

On the use of Dvorak current intensity as a climate data record in the western North Pacific

Michael C. Kruk, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and K. R. Knapp and P. A. Hennon

Manuscript (166.2 kB)

143

Investigating how background state affects the propagation of the MJO

Kristina L. Laboy, Millersville University, Millersville, PA; and E. D. Maloney

144

Pentad evolution of wintertime impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the contiguous United States

Stephen R. Baxter, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Weaver

145

On the Influence of Warm Pool SST Variability and Wind Stress Forcing on ENSO in SODA

Yoon-Kyoung Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh, B. Dewitte, B. K. Moon, and J. G. Jhun

Handout (4.0 MB)

146

A pan-Eurasian pattern of Northern Hemisphere wintertime sea level pressure variability

Brian V. Smoliak, The Climate Corporation, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

147

Seasonal prediction of Northwest Australian tropical cyclones

Kevin H. Goebbert, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and L. M. Leslie

Handout (3.5 MB)

148

Temporal Variability of the Atmospheric Zero Trend Level

Robb M. Randall, ARL, White Sands Missle Range, NM; and B. M. Herman and S. T. Fiorino

Handout (598.2 kB)

149

Future Space System Support to US Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic: Broadband Satellite Communications Options

Leslie Wickman, The Aerospace Corp., El Segundo, CA; and P. Smith and I. Min

Manuscript (80.4 kB)

Handout (550.0 kB)

Joint Session 3

Computational intelligence methods for climate change attribution, characterization, and downscaling

Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Antonello Pasini, CNR; Xuebin Zhang, EC

4:00 PM

J3.1

Climatic attribution via neural network modeling

Antonello Pasini, CNR, Rome, Italy

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J3.2

A data mining algorithm for climate data: application to double ITCZ

Andrew Geiss, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA; and G. Levy

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J3.3

Predicting Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Roshanak Nateghi, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and S. M. Quiring, S. D. Guikema, and A. Schumacher

5:00 PM

J3.4

Unsupervised machine learning as a method to identify patterns in regional climate downscaling reanalyses

Jeffrey H. Copeland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Knievel, F. Vandenberge, and R. Babarsky

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J3.5

Evaluation of STARDEX indices calculated from linear and nonlinear statistical downscaled daily temperatures

Carlos Felipe Gaitan, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh, A. J. Cannon, and P. Gachon

Recorded Presentation

Session 3A

Observed Changes II

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR

4:00 PM

3A.1

Has there been an increase in Atlantic basin category 5 hurricane frequency over the past century?

Andrew B. Hagen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3A.2

Atlantic tropical cyclones in the 20th century: Natural variability and secular change in cyclone count

Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and B. Guan

4:30 PM

3A.3

The recent decline of the long rains in East Africa

Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and D. G. Dewitt

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

3A.4

On the Time-Varying Trend in Global-Mean Surface Temperature

Zhaohua Wu, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and N. E. Huang, J. M. Wallace, B. V. Smoliak, and X. Chen

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3A.5

Observed growing season changes in Canada

Budong Qian, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and S. Gameda, X. Zhang, and R. De Jong

5:15 PM

3A.6

Trends in Tropospheric Humidity and Water Vapor from 1973–2008

Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wang and P. Thorne

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Understanding the Causes of Climate Change

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Chris E. Forest, Pennsylvania State Univ.

4:00 PM

3B.1

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Isla R. Simpson, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and M. Blackburn, J. D. Haigh, and S. Sparrow

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3B.2

Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales

Francis W. Zwiers, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and Y. Feng

4:30 PM

3B.3

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on Southern Hemisphere Circulation Change: A Multimodel Assessment

Seok-woo Son, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. P. Gerber, J. Perlwitz, L. M. Polvani, N. P. Gillett, K. H. Seo, and SPARC/CCMVal-2 Coauthors

3B.4

Relative roles of aerosols and natural variability on the 20th century global mean temperature change: analysis from IPCC/AR4 GCMs and an energy balance model

4:45 PM

3B.5

Effects of systematic measurement errors on detection of climate change

Janet Daniels, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and K. J. Priestley

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3B.6

Assessing uncertainty of regional climate change from global climate models

Chris E. Forest, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. Li and J. Barsugli

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 6

Stratosphere and Climate: Stratospheric Influence on Surface Climate

Location: 3B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Edwin P. Gerber, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences

4:00 PM

J6.1

Understanding the linkages between stratospheric variability and surface climate

David W. J. Thompson, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and T. Birner

4:15 PM

J6.2

Stratospheric ozone depletion: the main driver of 20th century atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere?

Lorenzo M. Polvani, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and D. Waugh, G. J. P. Correa, and S. W. Son

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J6.3

Separating the effects of ozone depletion/recovery and climate change on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere

Charles McLandress, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Jonsson, D. Plummer, C. Reader, J. Scinocca, M. Sigmond, and T. G. Shepherd

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J6.4

Impact of late-20th century ozone changes in an atmosphere-only model and a slab ocean model

Paul J. Young, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. M. Davis, S. Solomon, B. Hassler, and G. Bodeker

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

J6.5

Decdal changes in stratosphere-troposphere wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere, and the role of ozone depletion

Nili Harnik, Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv, Israel; and J. Perlwitz and T. A. Shaw

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J6.6

How will stratospheric effects on climate change during the 21st century?

Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 20

Air Quality and Climate Change

Location: 3A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Matthew J. Parker, Savannah River National Laboratory; Serena Chung, Washington State Univesity

4:00 PM

J20.1

Effects of global change on air quality in the US

Serena H. Chung, Washington State University, Pullman, WA; and R. Gonzalez Abraham, B. Lamb, J. Avise, E. Salathe, Y. Zhang, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, T. Duhl, D. G. Streets, C. G. Nolte, and D. Loughlin

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J20.2

Effects of changing climate on fires and the consequences for U.S. regional air quality, using global and regional chemistry and climate/meteorology models

Hyun Cheol Kim, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and D. W. Byun, D. Lee, R. C. Hudman, D. V. Spracklen, L. J. Mickley, S. Wu, and J. A. Logan

4:30 PM

J20.3

Remote measurement of tropospheric gases under cloud with the AERI Instrument

W.F.J. Evans, North West Research Associates, Redmond, WA; and H. L. Buijs and C. B. Roy

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J20.4

A preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of air quality in North Carolina to global change

Saravanan Arunachalam, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and A. F. Hanna, Z. Adelman, M. Omary, B. H. Baek, N. Davis, K. Talgo, and A. Xiu

5:00 PM

J20.5

The use of tracers of opportunity to assess chronic carbon dioxide releases from regional industrial activities

Matthew J. Parker, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and S. Walter, R. L. Buckley, and A. Andrews

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J20.6

Analysis of Aerosol Optical and Physical Properties and Their Impact on Surface Radiative Energy Budget and Atmospheric Thermodynamics During Aerose Campaigns

Adrian Flores, NOAA, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, N. R. Nalli, and V. R. Morris

Recorded Presentation

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate Art Show

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 4

Climate Analysis III

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

8:30 AM

4.1

The association of outgoing solar (albedo) and OLR radiation with variations of precipitation

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. E. Schwartz

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

4.2

Extreme temperature regimes during the cool season

Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and R. Westby

9:00 AM

4.3

What forms the subtropical maximum in mid-tropospheric warming?

Jian (Tony) Ma, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. P. Xie

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.4

The observed extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart and D. Keyser

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.5

An examination of climate variability in the southeastern United States based on a modulated annual cycle

Sarah E. Strazzo, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and Z. Wu

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 7

Special Session on the Life and Work of John Roads I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 25th Conference on Hydrology )

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, University of Michigan

8:30 AM

J7.1

An overview of the coupled atmosphere-wildland fire model WRF-Fire

Jan Mandel, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; and J. D. Beezley and A. Kochanski

Manuscript (352.5 kB)

8:45 AM

J7.2

Exploring the possibility to Forecast Annual Mean Temperature with IPCC and AMIP Runs

Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Kumar

Recorded Presentation

J7.3

California Reanalysis Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Downscaling at 10km

9:00 AM

J7.4

Analysis of seasonal climate predictability based on long term global sea surface temperature

Constantin Andronache, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J7.5

Observed climate variability and change impacts on agricultural productivity in the Midwestern US

Keith A. Cherkauer, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and V. Mishra

Recorded Presentation

Spouses' Coffee

Exhibit Hours

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 2

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

150

Global precipitation diurnal variations depicted in the observation and the CFS Reanalysis

Soo-Hyun Yoo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC and Wyle Scientific, Camp Springs, MD; and P. Xie and W. Wang

Handout (3.7 MB)

151

California temperature and precipitation trends: climate variability or global warming

Steve LaDochy, California State University, Los Angeles, CA; and P. Ramirez, D. Killam, A. Bui, W. C. Patzert, and J. Willis

Manuscript (578.3 kB)

Handout (420.4 kB)

152

Impact of a fine scale SST over the Kuroshio Extension region to wintertime rainfall

Satoshi Iizuka, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Dairaku and W. Sasaki

153

Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and mean state changes

Jung Choi, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. I. An and S. W. Yeh

154

NARCCAP regional climate model simulations of the North American monsoon

Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gochis and L. O. Mearns

Handout (35.6 MB)

155

Conspicuous greening in the end of growing season over Arctic region

Su Jong Jeong, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and B. M. Kim and C. H. Ho

156

Understanding extreme precipitation events in climate simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in Madison, Wisconsin

Kathleen D. Holman, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. J. Vavrus

157

Potential Precursors to and Implications of Tropical Cyclone Passage: A Regional Climate Perspective

Benjamin Schenkel, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Handout (7.2 MB)

158

30-year satellite-based time series: Is vegetation greening up?

Felix Kogan, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD

159

Vegetation greening accelerates surface warming and sea-ice melting over the Arctic and high-latitude regions

Sang-Yoon Jun, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. H. Ho, J. H. Jeong, and J. S. Kug

160

Impact of Anthropogenic Pressures on Selected Characteristics of a Wetland at Ts'akholo, Lesotho

Adesola Olutayo Olaleye Sr., CSIR, Roma, Lesotho

Manuscript (189.9 kB)

Handout (561.5 kB)

161

Projected changes of regional heat waves in Central/Eastern Europe using climate model simulations

Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, E. B. Bartha, O. Torek, I. Pieczka, and C. Torma

Manuscript (3.2 MB)

Handout (613.2 kB)

162

Simulated trend of wet and dry climatic conditions in Central/Eastern Europe using PRECIS outputs

Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Pieczka, B. Hollosi, and O. Torek

Manuscript (3.0 MB)

Handout (694.1 kB)

163

Analysis of the urban heat island effect—comparison of ground-based and remotely sensed temperature observations

Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, E. Lelovics, and Z. Dezso

Manuscript (264.2 kB)

Handout (8.0 MB)

164

Better understanding late-20th century cloudiness changes over China through analysis of related surface- and satellite-based observations and climate model output

Dale Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and Y. Qian

Handout (5.4 MB)

Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

Lecture

Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

11:00 AM

L.1

Scale Interactions and the Generation of Low-Frequency Variability in the Atmosphere

Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 5B

Weather and Climate Modelling I

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University

5B.1

Understanding ENSO Regime Behavior under the Increase of Warm-pool Temperature using a Simple ENSO Model

1:45 PM

5B.2

Using the replicate Earth paradigm to interpret and reduce climate change uncertainty

Craig H. Bishop, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. Abramowitz

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

5B.3

Engineering with stratospheric aerosols to avoid climate emergencies

Kelly E. McCusker, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Battisti and C. M. Bitz

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

5B.5

Utilizing NASA A-Train datasets to evaluate global models

Jonathan Jiang, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and H. Su

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

5B.6

Simulation of Sensitivity of semi-arid climate to global warming

Xiaodan Guan, Lanzhou University, Austin, TX; and Z. L. Yang and J. Huang

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 9

Special Session on the Life and Work of John Roads II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 25th Conference on Hydrology )

Chair: Michael Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC

1:30 PM

J9.1

Using SMOS to study the Mississippi River basin water budget

Alan Robock, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and T. W. Collow

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J9.2

Hydrology in the air: the influence of irrigation in India on the atmospheric branch of the water cycle

Obbe Tuinenburg, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; and R. Hutjes

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J9.3

Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and F. R. Robertson, D. Mocko, and J. Chen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (465.2 kB)

2:15 PM

J9.4

Water balance over oceans observed from satellites

W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J9.5

Ensemble downscaling of seasonal forecasts for hydrological applications

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J9.6

How realistic is precipitation over the western U.S. and Mexico in IPCC AR4 GCMs?

Nicole J. Schiffer, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Location: 601 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 6A

Special session on WCRP Projects

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Tony J. Busalacchi, Univ. of Maryland

3:30 PM

6A.1

CLIVAR: future plans and priorities

Jim Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Visbeck, H. Cattle, and R. Molinari

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

6A.2

The new GEWEX

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

4:30 PM

6A.3

The Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project

Konrad Steffen, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürich, Switzerland; and D. Yang

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

6A.4

The SPARC Project: Analysis and modeling of climate variability and change in the stratosphere

N. McFarlane, SPARC International Project Office, Toronto, ON, Canada; and T. G. Shepherd and T. Peter

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

Panel Discussion

5:15 PM

6A.5

WCRP_osc

Jim Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

Discussion

Session 6B

US Climate Data

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

3:30 PM

6B.1

Climate Perspectives: A new tool for assessing the state of the climate across the southeastern U.S.　

Charles E. Konrad, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and R. Boyles, J. McGuire, and W. Schmitz

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

6B.2

Enhancements of the data set of sounding parameters derived from the integrated global radiosonde archive

Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and W. Yin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (33.7 kB)

4:00 PM

6B.3

Analysis of extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere using the NOAA historical reanalysis

Scott Applequist, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, and G. P. Compo

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (290.6 kB)

4:15 PM

6B.4

Comparison of the NCDC sea surface temperature datasets: ERSST and OISST

Chunying Liu, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and R. W. Reynolds, T. Smith, and P. V. Banzon

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (191.2 kB)

4:30 PM

6B.5

Transitioning from the traditional divisional dataset to global historical climatology network-daily gridded divisional dataset

Chris Fenimore, NCEI, Asheville, NC; and K. Gleason and R. R. Heim Jr.

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (362.8 kB)

4:45 PM

6B.6

Assessing structural uncertainty in the U.S. Historical Climatology Version 2 adjusted temperature records

Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and C. N. Williams Jr. and P. Thorne

5:00 PM

6B.7

An analysis of Atlantic hurricane seasons in the Pre-HURDAT era (1751–1850)

Steven A. LaVoie, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and J. S. M. Coleman

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 7A

Climate Monitoring

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

8:30 AM

7A.1

New Tools for Climate Measurement—the Vaisala Climate Reference Radiosonde Program

Heikki Turtiainen, Vaisala Oyj, Helsinki, Finland; and H. Jauhiainen, T. Lehtola, J. Lentonen, A. Paukkunen, P. Survo, M. Turunen, V. P. Viitanen, H. von Bagh, and W. F. Dabberdt

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

7A.2

Climate monitoring from space—a call for an international space-based architecture

Barbara J. Ryan, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland; and J. Lafeuille and W. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

7A.3

What is coastal?

Michael C. Kruk, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and D. H. Levinson, E. Gibney, and P. A. Hennon

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (104.2 kB)

9:15 AM

7A.4

Climatology of upper- and lower-tropospheric closed thickness highs and lows

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

7A.5

Improved climate monitoring in British Columbia

Dave Rodenhuis, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and E. J. Weick, J. Hiebert, A. Soux, and L. Pitt

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

7A.6

The distribution of vog on the Big Island of Hawaii

Abigail Kristen Dyer, NOAA, Columbia, MO; and S. Ryan

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

NCAR Community Modeling Session I: Status and Developments

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Jay S. Fein, NSF

8:30 AM

7B.1

The community Earth system model: progress and future plans

Jim Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

7B.2

Improvements in the CCSM4 compared to the CCSM3

Peter Gent, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

7B.3

Tropical intraseasonal variability improvements across the suite of CESM1 atmosphere models

Richard Neale, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Coleman and D. Shea

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

7B.4

The Sensitivity of Modelled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability to Parameterized Nordic Sea Overflows in CCSM4

Gokhan Danabasoglu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Yeager

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

7B.5

A weakly coupled ocean-atmosphere ensemble data assimilation system

Timothy J. Hoar, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Collins, K. Raeder, J. Anderson, S. Yeager, M. Vertenstein, G. Danabasoglu, and J. Tribbia

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

7B.6

Initialized decadal prediction experiments using CCSM4

Steve Yeager, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Danabasoglu, J. Tribbia, J. Anderson, N. Collins, T. J. Hoar, J. Hurrell, K. Raeder, and H. Teng

Recorded Presentation

Spouses' Coffee

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Exhibit Hours

Joint Session 4

Communicating Climate Change I (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

Chair: Susan Solomon, MIT

10:30 AM

J4.1

What counts as knowledge? Using science dynamics to communicate climate dynamics

James Rodger Fleming, Colby College, Waterville, ME

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J4.3

Communicating climate change: from awareness to action

Amy K. Snover, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. C. Whitely Binder, A. F. Hamlet, and J. Littell

Recorded Presentation

J4.2

What are the biggest challenges in communicating climate science?

11:15 AM

J4.4

Making climate part of the human world

Simon D. Donner, University of British Colombia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J4.6A

Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC 5th Assessment

Myles R. Allen, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

J4.5

Communicating climate science: Why is it so hard? (Because facts are not enough)

Session 8

NCAR Community Modeling Session II: Climate Change 1 (Climate Sensitivity)

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Andrew Gettelman, NCAR

10:30 AM

8.1

Towards a physical understanding of climate feedback spatial distributions and links to climate sensitivity

Patrick Taylor, LaRC, Hampton, VA

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

8.2

How does CO2 forcing magnitude impact radiative feedbacks in CCSM3?

Alexandra K. Jonko, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and K. M. Shell, B. Sanderson, and G. Danabasoglu

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

8.3

The future evolution of the Earth's reflected shortwave spectrum

William D. Collins, University of California, Berleley, CA; and D. R. Feldman

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

8.4

Comparison of radiative feedbacks and climate sensitivities between CCSM3 and CCSM4

Karen M. Shell, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and C. Bitz and D. Bailey

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

8.5

Changing climate sensitivity through cloud adjustment

Andrei Sokolov, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. Monier

11:45 AM

8.6

Decomposition of Radiative Forcing by Black Carbon in CESM1

Steven J. Ghan, PNNL, Richland, WA; and X. Liu, R. Easter, P. Rasch, J. F. Lamarque, A. Conley, and M. G. Flanner

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Joint Session 5

Communicating Climate Change II (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

Chair: Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria

1:30 PM

J4.6

Devils Lake climate, weather, and water decision support system

Fiona M. Horsfall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Kluck, M. J. Brewer, M. Timofeyeva, J. Symonds, S. Dummer, and M. Frazier

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J5.1

Trends in public opinion on climate change, as reflected in contributions to Australian newspapers

David J. Karoly, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and B. Parr

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J5.2

Promoting climate information and communication of climate change

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (270.8 kB)

2:15 PM

J5.4

Turning the tide on climate change

Philippe de Casabianca, Cefic, Brussels, Belgium; and R. Kandel

Joint Session 8

Communicating Earth Science Information Part I

Location: 607 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Stephen M. Holt, Noblis, Inc.; Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL; Eileen Shea, NOAA/Pacific Fisheries Science Center

1:30 PM

J8.1

Joint center for environmental analysis, prediction, and projection (JCEAPP): a coordinated approach to U.S. modeling efforts

Fiona M. Horsfall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Higgins

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J8.2

Communicating fire weather information and assessing societal response

Peter Roohr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and H. Hockenberry, J. Sprague, and S. Schranz

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J8.3

Evolution of NOAA's Observing System Investment Assessment Process

Eric J. Miller, NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Yapur, N. Wyse, R. Reining, and L. McCulloch

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J8.4

Developing tsunami flooding forecast software

Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and D. W. Denbo, Y. Wei, D. Arcas, and V. V. Titov

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 3

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Organizers: Xuebin Zhang, EC; David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC; Jim Hurrell, NCAR

493

Flow-dependent Empirical Singular Vectors for El Nino ensemble prediction with Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation

Ham Yoo-Geun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker

494

Transformed Eddy-PV Flux and Positive Synoptic Eddy Feedback onto Low-Frequency Flow

Hong-Li Ren, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and F. F. Jin, J. S. Kug, and L. Gao

Handout (257.6 kB)

495

Weakening of East Asian Winter Monsoon in the Middle of 1980s

Pei-ken Kao, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. W. Hung

496

Diurnal variation in diffusion scheme on a global atmospheric model

Sun-Hee Shin, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and A. Kitoh and K. Ha

497

A simulation of climatic change induced by land use modification from 1976 to 2006 on summer over Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan

Toshinori Aoyagi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and N. Kayaba and N. Seino

Handout (627.6 kB)

498

Arctic aerosols: origins and direct radiative forcings

Ilissa Ocko, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY; and V. Ramaswamy and P. Ginoux

Handout (4.9 MB)

499

A comparison of physical climate feedbacks between GCM and reanalysis datasets

Meghan M. Flink, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and K. M. Shell

Handout (475.3 kB)

500

Numerical Studies of Lower Boundary Forcing on Tropical Storm Fay (2008) over Southern Florida

Travis Washington, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao

Manuscript (8.4 MB)

501

Tropical Intra-seasonal Variability in a 20-km mesh MRI/JMA AGCM incorporating a New Convective Scheme

Hirokazu Endo, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Yoshimura, H. Murakami, T. Ose, and A. Kitoh

502

Validation of Global Climate Model moisture trends for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) using GPS Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) observations in the U.S. Great Plains from 2000 to 2010

Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, H. Revercomb, and D. Tobin

Manuscript (1008.4 kB)

503

Intraseasonal variability sensitivity tests in an aqua-plant general circulation model

Kiranmayi Landu, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

Handout (1.4 MB)

504

The fully coupled atmosphere-ocean climate on an aquaplanet geography

Younglan Shin, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and S. A. Cowling and W. R. Peltier

505

Climate Modeling Study of Variability about the Seasonal Cycle in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea

Ariana Marrero, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR

505A

Comparison of Earth radiation annual cycles from CERES and model computations

Pamela E. Mlynczak, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and G. L. Potter

Session 10A

NCAR Community Modeling Session III: Atmosphere

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Steven J. Ghan, PNNL

4:00 PM

10A.1

Using a statistical representation of subgrid cloudiness to improve the Community Atmosphere Model

Peter Caldwell, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. Klein and S. Park

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

10A.2

Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions in the Community Earth System Model

Andrew Gettelman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Morrison, S. J. Ghan, and X. Liu

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

10A.3

High-resolution simulations using CAM—impacts of parameterized convection

Julio T. Bacmeister, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Lauritzen, R. Neale, and G. Skok

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

10A.4

Impact of horizontal resolution on simulation of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

Fuyu Li, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and W. Collins, M. F. Wehner, D. L. Williamson, and J. G. Olson

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

10A.5

Modeling the West African Monsoon using the Superparameterized CAM

Rachel McCrary, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

10A.6

Evaluating Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) forecasts against satellite data along the GCSS Pacific cross-section

Cecile Hannay, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Williamson, R. Neale, J. Olson, and D. Shea

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Teleconnection I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Hai Lin, Environment Canada

4:00 PM

10B.1

Interaction between the Atlantic meridional and Nino modes

Gregory R. Foltz, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. McPhaden

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

10B.2

Two types of El Niño and their related atmospheric and oceanic dynamics

Hanna Na, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Kim and B. G. Jang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

10B.3

Subseasonal variability of western North Pacific subtropical high associated with ENSO and its relationship with East Asian summer monsoon

Sae-Rim Yeo, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. G. Jhun, W. Kim, and K. Y. Kim

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

10B.4

Transitions between Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific Types of ENSO

Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and S. T. Kim

Recorded Presentation

10B.5

Use of water vapor transport field for deriving a new ENSO index

5:00 PM

10B.6

The leading mode of Indian Ocean convection during the boreal cold season and associated circulation variability

Andrew Hoell, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow

Recorded Presentation

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

91st AMS Awards Banquet

Location: 6ABCD (Washington State Convention Center)

Michio Yanai Symposium

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Joint Session 10

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale I

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

8:30 AM

J10.1

Drivers of extreme events at the regional scale: Investigations with regional climate simulations and observations [INVITED]

Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and E. L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E. B. Jaeger, R. Lorenz, B. Orlowsky, and A. J. Teuling

8:45 AM

J10.2

Assessment of the agricultural impacts of climate change in the Southeastern United States: Decision support tools and uncertainty

Alex C. Ruane, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. M. Horton, J. M. Winter, and C. Rosenzweig

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J10.3A

Assessment of AOGCM biases for RCM applications over the Great Basin in the western U.S

John Mejia, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin, E. M. Wilcox, and K. E. Kunkel

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J10.4

Great Lakes net basin supply and lake levels under a changed climate based on a regional climate model

Brent M. Lofgren, NOAA/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. Gyawali

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J10.5

Improvement in Regional Climate modeling using WRF coupled to the high complexity multilayer land surface model ACASA

Liyi Xu, University of California, Davis, CA; and R. D. Pyles and K. T. Paw U

Recorded Presentation

Session 11A

NCAR Community Modeling Session IV: Climate Change 2 (Future Projections)

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: William Collins, The University of California, Berkeley

8:30 AM

11A.1

CMIP5 experiments with CCSM4 and CESM1

Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, and H. Teng

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

11A.2

High-resolution downscaled climate-change simulations of snowfall in the Colorado Headwaters region

Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Rasmussen, K. Ikeda, C. Liu, G. Thompson, F. Chen, M. Tewari, and D. J. Gochis

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11A.3

Characterizing the Climate Effects of Biofuel Cultivation

Andrew D. Jones, University of California, Oakland, CA; and M. Torn, W. Collins, and W. J. Riley

9:15 AM

11A.4

Studying regional climate change based on uncertainty in climate parameters using CAM3

Erwan Monier, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and A. Sokolov, J. Scott, A. Schlosser, and C. E. Forest

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

11A.5

Near cancellation of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends in 2000–2060 owing to stratospheric ozone recovery: An attribution study with CAM

Lorenzo M. Polvani, Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. Previdi and C. Deser

Recorded Presentation

Session 11B

Weather and Climate Modelling II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ.

8:30 AM

11B.1

Impact of different definitions of clear-sky flux on the longwave cloud radiative forcing: NICAM simulation results

Hyun-Sung Jang, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and B. J. Sohn, T. Nakajima, and M. Satoh

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

11B.2

Catastrophe concept-based cumulus parameterization: Solution to the phase problem of precipitation diurnal cycle over land in GCMs

Winston Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

9:00 AM

11B.3

Impact of Interactive Westerly Wind Bursts in CCSM3

Hosmay Lopez, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

11B.4

Radiative impacts of precipitating hydrometeors on atmosphere circulation features in weather and climate models

Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. Waliser, T. L'Ecuyer, A. M. Molod, J. D. Chern, R. M. Forbes, W. W. Tung, Y. C. Wang, L. Oreopoulos, M. J. Suarez, M. Rienecker, M. Miller, and W. K. Tao

9:30 AM

11B.5

Cloud-climate feedbacks and climate models: using satellite observations to improve boundary layer cloud parameterizations

Joao Teixeira, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and H. Kawai, J. Karlsson, J. P. A. Martins, B. H. Kahn, S. Lee, and K. Suselj

Recorded Presentation

Exhibit Hours

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Joint Poster Session 3

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

401

The potential for an abrupt failure of the West African monsoon as climate warms

Naresh Neupane, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and K. H. Cook

402

Combined effects of global warming and an AMOC shutdown on West African and European climate

Meredith Brown, University of Texas , Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and K. H. Cook

403

Air-sea coupling mechanisms in the North Pacific using a high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model

Ramesh K. Vellore, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin, I. Cerovecki, and C. E. Dorman

404

Local and remote influences on vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic region

Xiaojie Zhu, Texas A&M University, College station, TX; and R. Saravanan

Handout (8.8 MB)

405

High resolution simulation of the succession of hurricanes in 2008: Gustav, Hanna, and Ike

Wuyin Lin, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; and M. Zhang, A. M. Vogelmann, and J. He

Handout (2.4 MB)

406

A study of inter-annual variability of U.S. West Coast upwelling zones with ENSO and PDO indices using high-resolution regional climate modeling

Darko Koracin, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. Mejia, C. E. Dorman, and K. E. Kunkel

Paper 407 has been moved and replaced by 407A. New paper numer is J10.3A.

407A

Advances in Coupling Regional Circulation/Land Surface Models and Dynamic Crop Models

Guillermo A. Baigorria, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and D. W. Shin

408

Dynamical Downscaling of NASA/GISS ModelE: Continuous, Multi-Year WRF Runs

Tanya L. Otte, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. H. Bowden, C. G. Nolte, M. J. Otte, J. E. Pleim, J. A. Herwehe, G. Faluvegi, and D. Shindell

Handout (2.2 MB)

409

Analysis and quantification of uncertainty in climate adaptation products for the southwestern US

Duane Apling, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. Higgins, K. Darmenova, and H. Kiley

410

Regional climate modeling in the Lower Mississippi River Valley for water resources assessments

Valentine G. Anantharaj, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN; and G. V. Mostovoy, Y. Lau, C. A. Peterson, C. D. Armstrong, and X. Fan

411

Reproducibility and future projection of monthly maximum number of consecutive dry days in Japan: Improvement by a 5-km-mesh regional climate model

Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Kanada, T. Kato, and K. Kurihara

412

Assessment of Climate Change over Colorado River Basin as predicted by Regional Climate Models

Yanhong Gao, Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China; and J. Vano and D. P. Lettenmaier

Handout (1.9 MB)

413

Simulated regional climate change in the Carpathian Basin using ENSEMBLES model simulations

Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, E. Miklos, and A. Kis

Manuscript (211.4 kB)

Handout (1005.2 kB)

414

Paleo-reconstruction of summer streamflow with estimates of uncertainties and applications to climate change assessments

Eric Lutz, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet and J. Littell

415

Assessment of dynamical downscale ability to simulate intra-seasonal and interannual variation in East Asia

Tomonori Sato, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; and Y. Xue

416

High-resolution regional climate simulations of precipitation patterns over the western U.S using WRF

John Mejia, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin

Handout (1.9 MB)

417

Modeling the hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States: predicting soil moisture under a warmer climate

Jonathan M. Winter, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and E. A. B. Eltahir

418

Development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) --- Performance of the VIC land surface model in coupled simulations

Chunmei Zhu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Lettenmaier, J. He, T. Craig, and W. Maslowski

419

Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: Rainfall climatology and interannual variability

Zewdu Segele, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. J. Lamb

Handout (249.6 kB)

420

Conservative and Noise Resistant Data Remapping for Coupling WRF and CAM

Ying Chen, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and X. Jiao, W. Lin, M. H. Zhang, and J. He

Handout (1.1 MB)

421

Construction of WRF/CAM two-way coupling system and preliminary results

Juanxiong He, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Zhang, W. Lin, Y. Chen, and A. M. Vogelmann

Handout (384.6 kB)

422

Assessment of dynamical downscaling in Japan using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

Koji Dairaku, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; and R. Pielke Sr., A. Beltran-Przekurat, S. IIzuka, and W. Sasaki

423

Assessment of Climate Model Performance over the Australian Region

Luke M. Leslie, Washington University in St. Louis, Norman, OK

Paper 424 has been moved. New paper number is 505A

Poster Session 4

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

506

Future change of precipitation-altitude relationship over the Asian summer monsoon region simulated by a high-resolution climate model with a time-slice technique

Osamu Arakawa, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; and A. Kitoh

507

Climate of the 20th and 21th century simulations by a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model

Shoji Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and J. Yoshimura and H. Murakami

Handout (358.4 kB)

508

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by a 60-km-mesh MRI AGCM in the period 1872-2099

Mio Matsueda, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Endo

509

Climate sensitivity to lake properties and distribution using an improved lake model in CCSM

Zachary M. Subin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and W. J. Riley and C. Bonfils

Handout (891.4 kB)

510

Communicating climate information consistently: bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections

Erin Towler, NCAR, Boulder, CO

511

Estimating uncertainties in global and North American regional climate change projections using a multi-thousand member climate model ensemble: Evaluation of the control simulations

Derek H. Rosendahl, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Karoly

Handout (808.7 kB)

512

Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location

MinHo Kwon, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and T. Li, J. S. Kug, and J. J. Luo

Manuscript (395.8 kB)

513

Using climate model data to determine spatial synoptic classifications

Neil Davis, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and A. Hanna, A. Xiu, K. Talgo, and S. C. Sheridan

514

Downscaling CCSM data using WRF for air quality modeling

Kevin Talgo, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and A. Hanna, A. Xiu, and N. Davis

515

Role of climate variability and land surface conditions in improving streamflow forecasting during the long rain season in the Tana River basin, Kenya

Tushar Sinha, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and C. Oludhe and S. Arumugam

516

Preliminary evaluation of CESM 1.0 20th century and select future climate runs within the Intra-Americas Sea region

Yolande Serra, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Handout (1.8 MB)

517

The redistribution of heat within the Arctic atmosphere during years with very low sea ice extent

Ron Lindsay, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Schweiger

518

Sensitivity of the thermocline feedback to global warming in coupled GCMs: Implications for changes in ENSO amplitude

P.N. DiNezio, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and A. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. Kirtman, and S. K. Lee

Joint Session 11

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale II

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

11:00 AM

J11.1

Toward confident and useful climate change projections: West Africa and the Sahel [INVITED]

Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas, Austin, TX

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J11.2

Long-Term Climate Impacts on the Hydrological Cycle of Northeastern Puerto Rico due to the Combined Effects of LCLU and Global Climate Changes

Daniel E. Comarazamy, Santa Clara University, New York, NY; and J. E. González

11:30 AM

J11.3

Dynamic and soil moisture feedbacks in regional climate change over the central U.S

Zaitao Pan, St. Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J11.4

Modeled onshore and offshore California coastal-cooling: General Circulation and mesoscale effects

B. Lebassi, College of New York, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez and R. Bornstein

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

J11.5

Future Impact of Weakening Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico

Yanyun Liu, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. K. Lee, B. A. Muhling, and J. T. Lamkin

Recorded Presentation

Session 12A

Climate Projection I

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Xuebin Zhang, EC

11:00 AM

12A.1

Impacts of Climate Change on Upper Ocean Warming and its Relationship to Hurricane Intensity

Christine D. Standohar, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. Soden

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12A.2

Is the Pacific's response to global warming La Nina-like or El Nino-like?

Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Zhou

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12A.3

Precipitation response to global warming: a model-by-model theory-model comparison

Jacob S. Scheff, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. M. Frierson

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12A.4

Arctic Oscillation Responses to Greenhouse Warming and Role of Synoptic Eddy Feedback

Jong-Seong Kug, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. H. Choi and W. T. Kwon

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

12A.5

Investigation of the energy budget and physical mechanisms associated with long-term climate changes in IPCC AR4 models

Hun-Gyu Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Kim

Session 12B

NCAR Community Modeling Session V: Paleo + Regional Responses

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Jim Hurrell, NCAR

11:00 AM

12B.1

Transient simulation of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years in CCSM3

Zhengyu Liu, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. He, E. Brady, P. U. Clark, and A. E. Carlson

11:15 AM

12B.2

A long CCSM3 transient simulation of the centennial to millennial variability of the hydrologic cycle in Africa

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Z. Liu, F. He, M. Wehrenberg, P. U. Clark, and A. Carlson

11:30 AM

12B.3

Arctic Climate Response to Aerosols on Sea Ice and Snow in CESM

Naomi L. Goldenson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. M. Holland, C. Bitz, S. Doherty, and B. Light

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12B.4

Understanding Changes in the Arctic Basin Sea Ice Mass Budget as Simulated by CCSM4: Implications from Melt Season Characteristics and the Surface Albedo Feedback

Daniel A. Pollak, Penn State University & NCAR/SOARS, State College, PA; and M. M. Holland and D. Bailey

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

12B.5

Glacial Inception in CCSM4

Markus Jochum, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Bailey, J. Fasullo, J. Kay, S. Levis, K. Lindsay, K. Moore, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and S. Peacock

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session

Presidential Town Hall Meeting

Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; the Events; the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; and the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology )

12:15 PM

Ensuring Integrity in the Doing and Using of Science

Ralph Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

Audio File

Michio Yanai Symposium Luncheon

Location: 4C-1 (Washington State Convention Center)

Joint Session 12

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale III

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

1:30 PM

J12.1

Creating dynamically downscaled seasonal climate forecast and climate change projection information for the North American Monsoon region suitable for decision making purposes [INVITED]

Christopher L. Castro, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and F. Dominguez and H. I. Chang

Recorded Presentation

J12.2

Regional climate modeling for Rhode Island and Shenzhen City, China: A model intercomparison program for optimizing coastal resource management decision making

2:00 PM

J12.3

Comparison of climate downscaling methods and results for stakeholder-driven research in the urban Northeast U.S

Radley M. Horton, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and A. C. Ruane, J. M. Winter, and C. Rosenzweig

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J12.4

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

Kremena Darmenova, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. Higgins, H. Kiley, and D. Apling

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J12.5

Regional Climate Model results in Pacific North America and the northern Columbia Basin

Trevor Q. Murdock, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; and G. Bürger and A. T. Werner

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J12.6

Precipitation Extremes in western U.S. urban areas: How reliable are regional/global climate model projections?

Vimal Mishra, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Dominguez and D. P. Lettenmaier

Recorded Presentation

Session 13A

Climate Projection II

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Kristen Averyt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

1:30 PM

13A.1

Drought over the United States in a Changing Climate Projected by the WCRP CMIP3 experiments

Kingtse C. Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13A.2

Characteristics of the CMIP3 models simulating realistic response of tropical western Pacific precipitation to Nino3 SST variability

Tomoaki Ose, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and O. Arakawa

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13A.4

Construction of high resolution monthly temperature scenarios for North America

Guilong Li, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and F. W. Zwiers

Recorded Presentation

13A.3

Projected future seasonal changes in tropical summer climate

2:30 PM

13A.5

The variation of the Asian summer monsoon in warmer climates

Yihui Ding, Beijing Climate Center/China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Sun, Z. Wang, Y. Liu, and Y. Song

2:45 PM

13A.6

The past and future of coastal and open ocean upwelling in the NE Pacific

Todd Mitchell, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Mantua and E. Salathé

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

NCAR Community Modeling Session VI: Climate Variability

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Gerald Meehl, NCAR

1:30 PM

13B.1

The role of linear interference in the Annular Mode response to Tropical forcing

Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and C. G. Fletcher

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13B.2

Two limits of decadal predictability in two generations of CCSM

Grant Branstator, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Teng

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13B.3

The impact of land surface initialization on seasonal forecasts with CCSM

Dan Paolino, COLA, Calverton, MD; and J. L. Kinter III, B. P. Kirtman, D. Min, and D. M. Straus

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13B.4

Observed and simulated modes of vertical wind shear variability over the tropical Atlantic

Xiaojie Zhu, Texas A&M University, College station, TX; and R. Saravanan

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13B.5

ENSO variability in an ultra-high resolution CCSM simulation

Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and D. P. Ivanova

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13B.6

Evaluating the impact of the CAM 5 dynamical core in idealized tropical cyclone simulations

Kevin A. Reed, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

Recorded Presentation

Registration Closes

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Session 14A

Teleconnection II

Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Hai Lin, Environment Canada

3:30 PM

14A.1

A Dynamical Linkage between the NAO and Its Downstream Development

Mi-Kyung Sung, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. I. An and J. S. Kug

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

14A.2

Tropical-extratropical interactions conducive to intraseasonal variability of Northern Hemisphere available potential energy

Jason M. Cordeira, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

14A.3

Atlantic influence on Amazon Rainfall

Jin-Ho Yoon, PNNL, Richland, WA; and N. Zeng

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

14A.5

Changes to the North Atlantic Subtropical High and Its Role in the Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States

Wenhong Li, Duke University, Durham, NC; and L. Li, R. Fu, Y. Deng, and H. Wang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

14A.4

Global Ocean Tripole and Its Climate Impact

Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

4:45 PM

14A.6

Tropical influences on the decadal-scale oscillation in cool-season Arctic precipitation

Bradley M. Hegyi, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and Y. Deng

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Weather and Climate Modeling III

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ.

3:30 PM

14B.1

SST diurnal variability and its influence on the tropical atmospheric intraseasonal variability

Jian Li, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (447.7 kB)

3:45 PM

14B.2

Impact of new ocean initial conditions on seasonal forecasts with the POAMA coupled model

Mei Zhao, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. H. Hendon, Y. Yin, and O. Alves

4:00 PM

14B.3

Evaluation of the Australian Climate Ocean Model (AusCOM) in the tropical oceans

Xiaobing Zhou, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and D. Bi, S. Marsland, Z. Sun, A. C. Hirst, O. Alves, and G. Wang

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

14B.4

Assessing inter- to multi-decadal variability in climate model simulations

Patrick Thomas Brown, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and E. Cordero and S. A. Mauget

Recorded Presentation

14B.5

Intraseasonal and seasonal predictability of monsoon of high-resolution models in project Athena

4:45 PM

14B.6

Precipitation Bias over the Western Indian Ocean in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Implications for Studying Changes in South Asian Summer Monsoon

Massimo A. Bollasina, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 22

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale IV

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

3:30 PM

J22.1

The North American regional climate change assessment program: climate change results [INVITED]

Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J22.2

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for North America Simulated by WRF Driven by Two Global Climate Models

L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Correia and Y. Qian

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J22.3

Outstanding challenges in projecting North American drought changes over the 21st century

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin

4:15 PM

J22.4

Extreme precipitation events in the NAM region—testing a modified convective parameterization scheme

Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zhang, L. Thang, and C. Christopher

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J22.5

Study of interior nudging for regional climate modeling using annual simulations: investigation of mean error and added value

Jared H. Bowden, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and T. Otte, C. G. Nolte, J. E. Pleim, J. A. Herwehe, and M. J. Otte

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J22.6

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations for Application to CMIP/AR Downscaling

Peter Lean, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and J. Kim, D. E. Waliser, A. Hall, C. Mattman, S. L. Granger, K. Case, C. Goodale, A. Hart, B. Guan, N. Molotch, and S. Kaki

Recorded Presentation

AMS 91st Annual Meeting Adjourns

23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

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4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

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Wednesday, 26 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

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Thursday, 27 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

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5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011