17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences (Expanded View)

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Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday
Short Course/Student Conference Registration
 
Sunday, 11 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration
 
9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration
 
Monday, 12 January 2004
7:30 AM, Monday
Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
 
9:00 AM-4:30 PM, Monday, Room 602/603
Session 1 Forecast Systems (Room 602/603)
Cochairs: J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
9:00 AM1.1An Experimental Severe Weather Nowcast Algorithm Based on a Back-propagation Neural Network and a Comparison with an Algorithm Based on Multiple Linear Regression  extended abstract
Yerong Feng, Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, China; and D. H. Kitzmiller
9:30 AM1.2Statistical algorithms for short-term wind energy forecasting  extended abstract
Kristin Larson, 3 Tier Environmental Forecast Group, Inc., Seattle, WA; and T. Gneiting
9:45 AM1.3Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms  extended abstract wrf recording
Michael Milligan, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Schwartz and Y. H. Wan
10:00 AMCoffee Break in Poster Session Room  
10:45 AM1.4Statistical models of aircraft icing  extended abstract
Matthew Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Wolff and T. Fowler
11:00 AM1.5Statistical Models for 1-2 Day Warm Season Lightning Prediction for Canada and the Northern United States  extended abstract wrf recording
William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and C. Price and L. J. Wilson
11:15 AM1.6Toward a new Canadian medium-range Perfect-Prog temperature forecast system  extended abstract
Bertrand Denis, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and R. Verret
11:30 AM1.7Aviation guidance from the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)  
Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
11:45 AMLunch Break  
1:30 PM1.8Results of the application of the Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics System to the Great Lakes marine forecast problem  extended abstract
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson and M. Vallée
2:00 PM1.9Combining Global and Local Grid-Based Bias Correction for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction  
Yulia Gel, George Washington Univ., Washington, DC; and A. Raftery and T. Gneiting
2:15 PM1.10Using new remotely-sensed datasets in MOS development: A step toward true high-resolution statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts  extended abstract
Mark S. Antolik, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
2:30 PMFormal Poster Session Viewing with Coffee Break  
4:00 PM1.11Severe weather as seen via a preliminary sounding climatology and a wind adjusted convective index (WACI)  extended abstract
Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA
4:15 PM1.12An algorithm for variable selection with an application to meteorological teleconnections.  extended abstract wrf recording
Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and W. K. -. M. Lau, A. Winter, and A. Veneros
 
4:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the day
 
5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
 
7:15 PM, Monday
Fred Sanders Banquet
 
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
8:30 AM-2:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 3A
Session 2 Forecast Evaluation (Room 3A)
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM2.1Verifying probabilistic forecasts: calibration and sharpness  
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, F. Balabdaoui, and A. Westveld
9:00 AM2.2Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Forecasts for Markov Observations  extended abstract
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and D. Ruppert
9:15 AM2.3The minimum spanning tree (MST) histogram as a verification tool for multidimensional ensemble forecasts  
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
9:30 AM2.4Selecting METARs to verify Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts  extended abstract
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Braid and A. Holmes
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
11:00 AM2.5Improving forecast verification through network design  extended abstract
Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:15 AM2.6Defining observation fields for verification of spatial forecasts of convection  extended abstract
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart and B. G. Brown
11:30 AM2.7A Prototype Verification System for Examining NDFD Forecasts  extended abstract
Valery J. Dagostaro, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Shaffer, M. J. Schenk, J. L. Gorline, and A. A. Taylor
12:00 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PM2.8Spatial verification using the relative operating characteristic curve  extended abstract
Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and W. R. Burrows
1:45 PM2.9Examining the sensitivity of various performance measures  extended abstract
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL and NOAA/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain
2:00 PM2.10The Critical Success Index and warning strategy  extended abstract
Harry Gerapetritis, NOAA/NWS, Greer, SC; and J. M. Pelissier
2:15 PM2.11Geospatial Uncertainty Analysis and Gridded Forecast Verification  extended abstract
Michael E. Splitt, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Cook and E. Petrescu
 
3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
 
3:30 PM-4:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 3A
Session 3 Extreme Weather and Climate (Room 3A)
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM3.1The Evolution of Daily Forecast Verification for Shuttle Landing Sites  extended abstract
Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX
3:45 PM3.2Objective Identification of extreme-most anomalous daily max/min historical temperature patterns using principal components analysis  extended abstract
Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA
4:00 PM3.3Extremes and millennial trends in the Carpathian Basin using the Rethly documentary collection  extended abstract
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz and Z. Molnar
 
4:15 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day
 
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 602/603
Session 4 Bayesian Probability Forecasting (Room 602/603)
Cochairs: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM4.1Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale forecasting with ensembles via Bayesian model averaging  
Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and T. Gneiting
8:45 AM4.2Bayesian Processor of Output: A New Technique for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting  extended abstract
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
9:00 AM4.3Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Forecasting of Precipitation Occurrence  extended abstract
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz
9:15 AM4.4Bayesian approach to decision making using ensemble weather forecasts  
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Ehrendorfer
 
9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
10:00 AM, Wednesday
Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 602/603
Session 5 Ensemble Forecasting (Room 602/603)
Cochairs: Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC Canada; Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO
5.1Using Ensemble DMOS to produce probabilistic forecasts  
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Myers and B. G. Brown
1:30 PM5.2Pre-processing of Atmospheric Forcing for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
John Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Perica, M. Mullusky, J. Demargne, E. Welles, and L. Wu
1:45 PM5.3Model Consensus and Ensemble Weighting for spot forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
2:00 PM5.4Impact of Model Error and Imperfect IC Perturbation on Evolution of Ensemble-based PDFs in NWP model  
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
2:15 PMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Exhibits open 1:30–7:30 P.M.)  
3:45 PM5.5Ensemble Re-Forecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and X. Wei
4:00 PM5.6Calibration of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by an Artificial Neural Network  
Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza
4:15 PM5.7Toward a nonlinear ensemble filter for high-dimensional systems  
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Bengtsson and D. Nychka
 
4:45 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day
 
6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
 
7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet
 
Thursday, 15 January 2004
8:30 AM-11:30 AM, Thursday, Room 602/603
Session 6 Statistical Climatology (Room 602/603)
Cochairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY
8:30 AM6.1Cross-validation for selection of statistical models  
Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett
8:45 AM6.2From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results  extended abstract
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka and L. O. Mearns
9:00 AM6.3Evaluation of GCM/RCM by the classified synoptic systems' approach  extended abstract
Isabella Osetinsky, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and P. Alpert
9:15 AM6.4Getting rid of El Nino  extended abstract
Cécile Penland, NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Matrosova
9:30 AM6.5Nonlinear Empirical Modeling  extended abstract
Sue Ellen Haupt, Utah State University, Logan, UT
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
11:00 AM6.6On the Chances of Being Struck by Cloud-to-Ground Lightning  extended abstract
E. Philip Krider, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. E. Kehoe
11:15 AM6.7The calculation of the statistical error of measured turbulent fluxes—considerations and improvement  extended abstract
Peter Zittel, Aerospace Systems at Technical Univ., Braunschweig, Germany; and T. Spiess and J. Bange
 
12:15 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday
Lunch Break
 
12:30 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday
Exhibit Hours
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 12 Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON Canada; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PMJ12.1Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida  extended abstract
P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen
1:45 PMJ12.2Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective  
J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro
2:00 PMJ12.3The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system  extended abstract
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli
2:15 PMJ12.4An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology  extended abstract
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss
2:30 PMJ12.5An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples  extended abstract
Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs
2:45 PMJ12.6Bias normalized precipitation scores  extended abstract
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill
 
3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall (Exhibits open 1:30-6:00 P.M.)
 
3:00 PM, Thursday
Registration Desk Closes
 
3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 13 Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A)
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
3:30 PMJ13.1MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool  extended abstract
Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss
3:45 PMJ13.2A global version of MM5: Method and verification  extended abstract
Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch
4:00 PMJ13.3Verifying mesoscale model precipitation forecasts using an acuity-fidelity approach  extended abstract
Stephen F. Marshall, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and T. A. Hutchinson
4:15 PMJ13.4Use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to verify IHOP QPF as a function of convective system morphology  extended abstract
Jeremy S. Grams, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, L. S. Wharton, S. Koch, E. E. Ebert, and A. Loughe
4:30 PMJ13.5Composite-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model  extended abstract
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen and J. Schmidt
4:45 PMJ13.6Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP  extended abstract
Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and B. Shaw
 
5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends
 
6:00 PM, Thursday
Norm Phillips Banquet
 

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