| Saturday, 10 January 2004 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday
Short Course/Student Conference Registration |
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| Sunday, 11 January 2004 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration |
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| 9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration |
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| Monday, 12 January 2004 |
| 7:30 AM, Monday
Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January |
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| 9:00 AM-4:30 PM, Monday, Room 602/603
Session 1 Forecast Systems (Room 602/603) |
Cochairs: J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
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| 9:00 AM | 1.1 | An Experimental Severe Weather Nowcast Algorithm Based on a Back-propagation Neural Network and a Comparison with an Algorithm Based on Multiple Linear Regression 
Yerong Feng, Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, China; and D. H. Kitzmiller |
| 9:30 AM | 1.2 | Statistical algorithms for short-term wind energy forecasting
Kristin Larson, 3 Tier Environmental Forecast Group, Inc., Seattle, WA; and T. Gneiting |
| 9:45 AM | 1.3 | Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms 
Michael Milligan, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Schwartz and Y. H. Wan |
| 10:00 AM | | Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
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| 10:45 AM | 1.4 | Statistical models of aircraft icing
Matthew Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Wolff and T. Fowler |
| 11:00 AM | 1.5 | Statistical Models for 1-2 Day Warm Season Lightning Prediction for Canada and the Northern United States
William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and C. Price and L. J. Wilson |
| 11:15 AM | 1.6 | Toward a new Canadian medium-range Perfect-Prog temperature forecast system
Bertrand Denis, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and R. Verret |
| 11:30 AM | 1.7 | Aviation guidance from the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)
Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| 11:45 AM | | Lunch Break
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| 1:30 PM | 1.8 | Results of the application of the Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics System to the Great Lakes marine forecast problem
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson and M. Vallée |
| 2:00 PM | 1.9 | Combining Global and Local Grid-Based Bias Correction for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction
Yulia Gel, George Washington Univ., Washington, DC; and A. Raftery and T. Gneiting |
| 2:15 PM | 1.10 | Using new remotely-sensed datasets in MOS development: A step toward true high-resolution statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts
Mark S. Antolik, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| 2:30 PM | | Formal Poster Session Viewing with Coffee Break
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| 4:00 PM | 1.11 | Severe weather as seen via a preliminary sounding climatology and a wind adjusted convective index (WACI)
Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA |
| 4:15 PM | 1.12 | An algorithm for variable selection with an application to meteorological teleconnections.
Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and W. K. -. M. Lau, A. Winter, and A. Veneros |
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| 4:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the day |
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| 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:15 PM, Monday
Fred Sanders Banquet |
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| Tuesday, 13 January 2004 |
| 8:30 AM-2:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 3A
Session 2 Forecast Evaluation (Room 3A) |
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
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| 8:30 AM | 2.1 | Verifying probabilistic forecasts: calibration and sharpness
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, F. Balabdaoui, and A. Westveld |
| 9:00 AM | 2.2 | Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Forecasts for Markov Observations
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and D. Ruppert |
| 9:15 AM | 2.3 | The minimum spanning tree (MST) histogram as a verification tool for multidimensional ensemble forecasts
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY |
| 9:30 AM | 2.4 | Selecting METARs to verify Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Braid and A. Holmes |
| 9:45 AM | | Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
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| 11:00 AM | 2.5 | Improving forecast verification through network design
Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 11:15 AM | 2.6 | Defining observation fields for verification of spatial forecasts of convection
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart and B. G. Brown |
| 11:30 AM | 2.7 | A Prototype Verification System for Examining NDFD Forecasts
Valery J. Dagostaro, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Shaffer, M. J. Schenk, J. L. Gorline, and A. A. Taylor |
| 12:00 PM | | Lunch Break
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| 1:30 PM | 2.8 | Spatial verification using the relative operating characteristic curve
Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and W. R. Burrows |
| 1:45 PM | 2.9 | Examining the sensitivity of various performance measures
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL and NOAA/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain |
| 2:00 PM | 2.10 | The Critical Success Index and warning strategy
Harry Gerapetritis, NOAA/NWS, Greer, SC; and J. M. Pelissier |
| 2:15 PM | 2.11 | Geospatial Uncertainty Analysis and Gridded Forecast Verification
Michael E. Splitt, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Cook and E. Petrescu |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall |
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| 3:30 PM-4:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 3A
Session 3 Extreme Weather and Climate (Room 3A) |
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
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| 4:15 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day |
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| Wednesday, 14 January 2004 |
| 8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 602/603
Session 4 Bayesian Probability Forecasting (Room 602/603) |
Cochairs: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 8:30 AM | 4.1 | Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale forecasting with ensembles via Bayesian model averaging
Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and T. Gneiting |
| 8:45 AM | 4.2 | Bayesian Processor of Output: A New Technique for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA |
| 9:00 AM | 4.3 | Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Forecasting of Precipitation Occurrence
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz |
| 9:15 AM | 4.4 | Bayesian approach to decision making using ensemble weather forecasts
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Ehrendorfer |
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| 9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break |
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| 10:00 AM, Wednesday
Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB) |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break |
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| 1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 602/603
Session 5 Ensemble Forecasting (Room 602/603) |
Cochairs: Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC Canada; Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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|  | 5.1 | Using Ensemble DMOS to produce probabilistic forecasts
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Myers and B. G. Brown |
| 1:30 PM | 5.2 | Pre-processing of Atmospheric Forcing for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
John Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Perica, M. Mullusky, J. Demargne, E. Welles, and L. Wu |
| 1:45 PM | 5.3 | Model Consensus and Ensemble Weighting for spot forecasts
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC |
| 2:00 PM | 5.4 | Impact of Model Error and Imperfect IC Perturbation on Evolution of Ensemble-based PDFs in NWP model
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD |
| 2:15 PM | | Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Exhibits open 1:30–7:30 P.M.)
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| 3:45 PM | 5.5 | Ensemble Re-Forecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and X. Wei |
| 4:00 PM | 5.6 | Calibration of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by an Artificial Neural Network
Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza |
| 4:15 PM | 5.7 | Toward a nonlinear ensemble filter for high-dimensional systems
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Bengtsson and D. Nychka |
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| 4:45 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day |
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| 6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet |
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| Thursday, 15 January 2004 |
| 8:30 AM-11:30 AM, Thursday, Room 602/603
Session 6 Statistical Climatology (Room 602/603) |
Cochairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY
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| 8:30 AM | 6.1 | Cross-validation for selection of statistical models
Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett |
| 8:45 AM | 6.2 | From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka and L. O. Mearns |
| 9:00 AM | 6.3 | Evaluation of GCM/RCM by the classified synoptic systems' approach
Isabella Osetinsky, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and P. Alpert |
| 9:15 AM | 6.4 | Getting rid of El Nino
Cécile Penland, NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Matrosova |
| 9:30 AM | 6.5 | Nonlinear Empirical Modeling
Sue Ellen Haupt, Utah State University, Logan, UT |
| 9:45 AM | | Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
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| 11:00 AM | 6.6 | On the Chances of Being Struck by Cloud-to-Ground Lightning
E. Philip Krider, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. E. Kehoe |
| 11:15 AM | 6.7 | The calculation of the statistical error of measured turbulent fluxes—considerations and improvement
Peter Zittel, Aerospace Systems at Technical Univ., Braunschweig, Germany; and T. Spiess and J. Bange |
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| 12:15 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday
Lunch Break |
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| 12:30 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday
Exhibit Hours |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 12 Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A) |
Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON Canada; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
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| 1:30 PM | J12.1 | Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida
P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen |
| 1:45 PM | J12.2 | Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective
J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro |
| 2:00 PM | J12.3 | The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli |
| 2:15 PM | J12.4 | An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss |
| 2:30 PM | J12.5 | An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples
Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs |
| 2:45 PM | J12.6 | Bias normalized precipitation scores
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall (Exhibits open 1:30-6:00 P.M.) |
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| 3:00 PM, Thursday
Registration Desk Closes |
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| 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 13 Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A) |
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
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| 3:30 PM | J13.1 | MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool
Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss |
| 3:45 PM | J13.2 | A global version of MM5: Method and verification
Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch |
| 4:00 PM | J13.3 | Verifying mesoscale model precipitation forecasts using an acuity-fidelity approach
Stephen F. Marshall, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and T. A. Hutchinson |
| 4:15 PM | J13.4 | Use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to verify IHOP QPF as a function of convective system morphology
Jeremy S. Grams, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, L. S. Wharton, S. Koch, E. E. Ebert, and A. Loughe |
| 4:30 PM | J13.5 | Composite-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen and J. Schmidt |
| 4:45 PM | J13.6 | Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP
Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and B. Shaw |
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| 5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends |
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| 6:00 PM, Thursday
Norm Phillips Banquet |
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