* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Monday, 22 May 2000
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Monday Conference Registration
Tuesday, 23 May 2000
	7:00 AM-5:00 PM, Tuesday Conference Registration
	8:00 AM-8:15 AM, Tuesday Opening - Plenary Session
	8:15 AM-8:30 AM, Tuesday Session Debate: "What limits the intensity of individual hurricanes: Thermodynamics or Dynamics?"
8:15 AM Write-up of Debate   M. DeMaria, K. A. Emanuel, W. M. Gray,
	9:45 AM-10:15 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday Session 1A Tropical cyclone intensity change theory I (Parallel with Sessions 1B and 1C)
Organizer: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
10:15 AM 1A.1 SST time series directly under tropical cyclones: observations and implications   Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. Molina, J. Kaplan, and P. G. Black 10:30 AM 1A.2 On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico   V. Mohan Karyampudi, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. B. Rodgers, H. F. Pierce, and J. Weinman 10:45 AM 1A.3 Minimum Potential Pressures of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses.   Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH 11:00 AM 1A.4 Microwave SST correlation with cyclone intensity   Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and D. Smith and F. Wentz 11:15 AM 1A.5 Limitations on hurricane intensity   Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and Y. Wang 11:30 AM 1A.6 Effects of Vertical Shear on the Structure and Intensity of Hurricanes   William M. Frank, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. A. Ritchie 11:45 AM 1A.7 **A climatology of hurricane maximum potential intensity in the Atlantic basin   Christopher C. Hennon, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday Session 1B Tropical Waves And Instabilities I (Parallel with Sessions 1A and 1C) [This session will be dedicated to the memory of Dr. Yoshikazu Hayashi, GFDL]
Organizer: Joseph A. Zehnder, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
10:15 AM 1B.1 **Water vapor anomoly tropical wave tracing   Paul E. Roundy, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA 10:30 AM 1B.2 **The Energetics of the African Easterly Wave Life Cycle: A Case Study   Lourdes B. Avilés, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL 10:45 AM 1B.3 Role of easterly wave in the maintenance of the easterly jet   Rosana Nieto Ferreira, NASA/GSFC and USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez and J. T. Bacmeister 11:00 AM 1B.4 The dynamics of the African Easterly Jet. Part II: GCM simulations   Julio T. Bacmeister, USRA, Seabrook, MD; and M. J. Suarez and R. N. Ferreira 11:15 AM 1B.5 **Space-time spectra of westward-propagating synoptic-scale disturbances in the ITCZ   Guojun Gu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 11:30 AM 1B.6 Potential vorticity structure and evolution in African Easterly Waves   Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. A. Postel 11:45 AM 1B.7 Idealized modeling of Tropical easterly disturbances   Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari
	10:15 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday Session 1C Interannual Variations Of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 1A and 1B)
Organizer: Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 1C.1 Extended range forecasting of NW Pacific and SW Pacific landfalling tropical cyclones   Paul Rockett, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders 10:30 AM 1C.2 **Local environmental conditions related to seasonal hurricane activity in the NE Pacific Basin   Jennifer M. Collins, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom 10:45 AM 1C.3 Interannual and Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific   Pao-Shin Chu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Clark and B. Lin 11:00 AM 1C.4 Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic oscillation   Bethany Kocher, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner 11:15 AM 1C.5 Exploring QBO-atlantic hurricane relationships prior to 1950   J. D. Sheaffer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 11:30 AM 1C.6 Extended range forecasting of Atlantic and US landfalling tropical cyclones   Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett, C. J. Merchant, and R. E. Chandler 11:45 AM 1C.7 NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 1999   Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and C. Landsea and S. B. Goldenberg 12:00 PM 1C.8 Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of the Probability of Hurricane Landfall Along Different US Coastal Locations   William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
	12:00 PM-1:15 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	1:15 PM-2:44 PM, Tuesday Session 2A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Theory II (Parallel with Sessions 2B and 2C)
Organizer: Greg T. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic. Australia
1:15 PM 2A.1 Studies of the wavenumber one instability in hurricane-like vortices   David S. Nolan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and P. D. Reasor 1:30 PM 2A.2 Influences of Potential Vorticity Asymmetries on a Tropical Cyclone in a Moist Three-Layer Model   Lloyd J. Shapiro, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany 2A.3 Dynamics of Marine Storm Intensification   Carol S. Hsu, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu 1:45 PM 2A.4 **Dynamics and energetics of tropical cyclone rainbands   Charmaine N. Franklin, RMIT Univ., Melbourne, Vic., Australia 1:59 PM 2A.5 Cumulus Parameterization Schemes for a Minimal Tropical Cyclone Model   Roger K. Smith, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany 2:14 PM 2A.6 A Minimal Three-Dimensional Tropical Cyclone Model   Hongyan Zhu, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and W. Ulrich 2:29 PM 2A.7 A Minimal Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone Model   Chi Mai Nguyen, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and H. Zhu, R. K. Smith, and M. J. Reeder
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday Session 2B Tropical Waves and Instabilities II (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2C)
Organizer: T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
1:15 PM 2B.1 The behavior of Rossby waves in summer monsoon-like flow   Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and R. T. Williams and C. -. P. Chang 1:30 PM 2B.2 The non-existence of wave-CISK in the tropical regions   Han-Ru Cho, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan 1:45 PM 2B.3 Analysis of tropospheric waves with periods of 1 to 30 days using the tropical pacific profiler network   Robert Schafer, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. K. Avery 2:00 PM 2B.4 Convectively coupled Kelvin waves   Katherine A. Harris, CIRES and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis 2:15 PM 2B.5 Observed Three Dimensional structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves   George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Harris, B. E. Mapes, and M. Wheeler 2:30 PM 2B.6 Modeling the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves   Matthew Wheeler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Mapes, G. N. Kiladis, and K. A. Harris 2:45 PM 2B.7 Frictional Feedbacks on Large-Scale Equatorially Trapped Waves   Christopher S. Bretherton, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. M. Moskowitz
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday Session 2C Intraseasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2B)
Organizer: William Gray, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO
1:15 PM 2C.1 Prospects for an improved understanding of the low frequency variability of tropical cyclones from reanalysis   Mike Fiorino, LLNL, Livermore, CA 1:30 PM 2C.2 Forecasts of Intraseasonal Periods of Tropical Cyclone Inactivity Over the Tropical Western North Pacific Ocean   Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and J. C. L. Chan 1:45 PM 2C.3 Climatological analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins   Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria 2:00 PM 2C.4 Distinctive modes of variability associated with active versus subdued Atlantic tropical cyclone activity   Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Spring, MD 2:15 PM 2C.5 Modulation of eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Eric D. Maloney, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann 2:30 PM 2C.6 Intraseasonal predictability of Atlantic basin hurricane activity   Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 2:45 PM 2C.7 **Intraseasonal prediction of atlantic basin tropical cyclone variations   Eric S. Blake, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday Session 3A Tropical cyclone-trough interactions (Parallel with Sessions 3B and 3C)
Organizer: Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO
3:30 PM 3A.1 An Overview on the Impact of Interaction between Low-mid Latitude Circulation on rainfall and Tropical cyclone behavior   Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China 3:45 PM 3A.2 An observational study on the genesis of concentric eyewall hurricanes   Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA 4:00 PM 3A.3 Upper tropospheric flow transitions during rapid tropical cyclone intensification   Noel E. Davidson, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and S. K. Kar 4:15 PM 3A.4 Intensity change for Hurricane Opal (1995) in the GFDL hurricane model   John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and R. E. Tuleya 4:30 PM 3A.5 A comparison of favourable and unfavourable hurricane-trough interactions   Deborah E. Hanley, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari and D. Keyser 4:45 PM 3A.6 Idealized modeling of hurricane-trough interaction   Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and J. L. Evans
	3:30 PM-5:01 PM, Tuesday Session 3B Tropical cyclone motion theory I (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3C)
Organizer: Johnny Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong China
3:30 PM 3B.1 The interaction of a cyclone with topography on a b-plane   Chin-Chou Chu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. J. Chen and C. C. Chang 3B.2 Relating Tropical Cyclone Steering Flow to Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 3:45 PM 3B.2a A REGIONAL SCALE ANALYSIS OF THE TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY BEHAVIOR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSING THE CARRIBEAN ARCHIPELAGO (Formerly paper 3B.7)   C. Asselin de Beauville, Univ. of Antilles and of the Guyane and Meteo-France, Pointe a Pitre, Guadeloupe, France; and C. Pontikis and F. Pagney 3:59 PM 3B.3 Potential vorticity mixing and tropical cyclone motion   Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY 4:14 PM 3B.4 Movement and Vertical Coupling of Adiabatic Baroclinic Tropical Cyclones   Liguang Wu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang 4:29 PM 3B.5 Linear Motion of a Two-Layer, Baroclinic Hurricane in Shear   Robert W. Jones, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. Willoughby 4:44 PM 3B.6 Diagnosing Hurricane Track and Intensity Change as Predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model   J. Dominique Möller, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany 4:59 PM 3B.7 Presentation time moved to the 3B.2 slot
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday Session 3C Intraseasonal Variations In The Tropics (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3B)
Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
3:30 PM 3C.1 Intraseasonal Kelvin waves forcing and its relationship with ENSO   Jonathan C. Gottschalck, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang 3:45 PM 3C.2 Paper moved to Poster Session P1, Paper Number P1.71   3:46 PM 3C.3 The boreal summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and the South Asian monsoon   David M. Lawrence, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster 4:00 PM 3C.4 Upper ocean heat budget in the western Pacific warm pool in response to Maden-Julian Oscillation   Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and H. H. Hendon 4:15 PM 3C.5 Four-dimensional structures of the MJO and Kelvin wave in the CSU and CCM3 AGCMs   Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall 4:30 PM 3C.6 The dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Joseph A. Zehnder, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. J. Reeder 4:45 PM 3C.7 Quasi-stationary and eastward-propagating convection and an MJO-like gravity wave simulated over a warm water pool in a 2D CRM experiment   Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Yamasaki 5:00 PM 3C.8 **Central American and Caribbean precipitation associated with cold surges   Teresa M. Bals-Elsholz, SUNY, Albany, NY
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions end for the day
	5:30 PM-5:45 PM, Tuesday Icebreaker/Reception
Wednesday, 24 May 2000
	7:30 AM, Wednesday Conference Registration Continues through Friday, 2 June
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday Session 4A Tropical Cyclone Motion Theory II/Adaptive observing systems and data assimilation I (Parallel with Sessions 4B and J1)
Organizer: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA
8:00 AM 4A.1 Non-Barotropic Processes in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Composite results   Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China 8:15 AM 4A.2 Non-Barotropic Processes in tropical cyclone motion. Part II: Individual Contributions from Diabatic Heating   Y. M. Lei, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 8:30 AM 4A.3 Non-Barotropic Processes in Tropical Cyclone motion. Part III: Potential Vorticity Advection   Francis M. F. Ko, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 8:45 AM 4A.4 A hurricane mission strategy using the Aerosonde   Greg Tyrrell, Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Hawthorn, Vic., Australia; and J. Becker and G. J. Holland 9:00 AM 4A.5 Observational plan for typhoon over West North Pacific using Aerosonde (Typhoon Hunter 2000, 2001)   Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Bessho, K. Nakamura, T. Furukawa, and C. Zhu 9:15 AM 4A.6 Three years of tropical cyclone synoptic surveillance in the Atlantic basin   Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday Session 4B Interannual variations in the tropics (Parallel with Sessions 4A and J1)
Organizer: Stanley Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 4B.1 The influence of the QBO on tropical deep convection   C. C. Collimore, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. W. Martin, M. H. Hitchman, and A. Heusmann 8:15 AM 4B.2 Interannual variability of sea level in the tropical and north Indian Ocean   Weiqing Han, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and K. Sahami 8:30 AM 4B.3 Winter monsoon over South China in ENSO and non-ENSO years   M. C. Wu, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 8:45 AM 4B.4 Variability of Near-Equatorial Lower Tropospheric Flow Over the East Pacific Cold Tongue   Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Bond and K. S. Gage 9:00 AM 4B.5 The low level jet and convective activity in the Caribbean   Jorge A. Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica; and V. O. Magaña and J. B. Pérez 9:15 AM 4B.6 Interannual variability of Northern activity over the Americas   Víctor O. Magaña, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and J. L. Vázquez
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday Joint Session 1 Ocean interaction effects on tropical cyclone intensity I (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Organizer: Yuqing Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
8:00 AM J1.1 Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation in the open ocean   C. Wayne Wright, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and E. J. Walsh, D. C. Vandemark, W. B. Krabill, A. W. Garcia, S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks 8:15 AM J1.2 Global Analogues of Deep Warm Upper Ocean Layers: Hurricane Heat Potential Estimates   Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and G. J. Goni, P. G. Black, S. D. Jacob, J. J. Cione, and E. Uhlhorn 8:30 AM J1.3 Role of the Upper Ocean Structure on the Intensification of Hurricane Bret From Satellite Altimetry   Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, S. D. Jacob, T. M. Cook, J. J. Cione, and E. Uhlhorn 8:45 AM J1.4 Hurricane intensity change modulated by air-sea interaction effects based on unique airborne measurements during the 1998–99 hurricane seasons   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. J. Cione, G. J. Goni, L. K. Shay, S. D. Jacob, E. J. Walsh, and E. A. D'Asaro 9:00 AM J1.5 Operational heat content charts at the Tropical Prediction Center   Michelle Mainelli Huber, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and R. J. Pasch 9:15 AM J1.6 The GFDL/URI coupled hurricane ocean prediction system and its performance evaluation in the 1999 hurricane season   Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and C. Rowley, L. Rothstein, S. A. Frolov, and M. A. Bender 9:30 AM J1.7 Effects of planetary vorticity gradient and uniform current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Johnny C. L. Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and Y. Duan
	9:45 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday Session 5A Adaptive Observing Systems and Data Assimilation II (Parallel with Sessions 5B and J2)
Organizer: Sim Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 5A.1 Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques Using a Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System   Zhao-Xia Pu, USRA, Seabrook, MD; and S. A. Braun 10:30 AM 5A.2 Tropical cyclone track forecasting using data assimilation of high resolution satellite derived winds   Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and M. S. Speer 10:45 AM 5A.3 JTWC Integration of Remote Sensing Data into the TC Warning Process   Christopher A. Finta, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI 11:00 AM 5A.4 Assimilation of TRMM and SSM/I observations in a global spectral model: A case study of Nov–98 tropical cyclone   Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal 11:15 AM 5A.5 Improved Data Assimilation in the Study of Hurricane Floyd (1999)   Jenni L. Evans, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia and Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. E. Hart and C. S. Velden 11:30 AM 5A.6 A comparison of data assimilation methods for hurricane track prediction   Eugenia Kalnay, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. M. Leslie, M. S. Speer, L. Qi, S. K. Park, and Z. X. Pu 11:45 AM 5A.7 Ensemble-based data assimilation in tropical cyclone forecasting   Brian J. Etherton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Majumdar
	10:15 AM-11:59 AM, Wednesday Session 5B Mesoscale convective systems (Parallel with Sessions 5A and J2)
Organizer: Edward Zipser, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
10:15 AM 5B.1 Initiation of an African Squall Line adn its interactions with an Easterly Wave   A. Diongue, CNRM and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. -. P. Lafore and J. -. L. Redelsperger 10:30 AM 5B.2 Gravity waves as a mechanism of convection triggering   Christine Lac, CNRM and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger 10:45 AM 5B.3 **Characteristics of Convective Development in Simulated Squall Lines   Matthew Garcia, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 5B.4 Effects of easterlies at the upper troposphere on the development of tropical mesoscale convective systems   Shoichi Shige, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Satomura 11:00 AM 5B.5 Early results from TRMM-LBA: Kinematic and microphsical characteristics of convection in distinct meteorological regimes   Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. A. Petersen, R. C. Cifelli, and L. D. Carey 11:14 AM 5B.6 Presentation time switched with paper 5B.7   11:15 AM 5B.6a Analysis of rainfall and electrification characteristics of MCS during TRMM-LBA in the context of varying environmental regimes (Formerly paper 5B.7)   Jeffrey B. Halverson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and T. Rickenbach, B. Ferrier, E. Williams, R. N. Ferriera, R. C. Cifelli, and G. Fisch 11:29 AM 5B.7 Presentation time switched with paper 5B.6   11:30 AM 5B.7a Evolution of mesoscale convective systems in contrasting large scale regimes from radar and infrared satellite data during the TRMM-LBA field campaign in RondÔnia, Brazil (Formerly paper 5B.6)   Thomas M. Rickenbach, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. N. Ferreira, J. B. Halverson, and R. C. Cifelli 11:44 AM 5B.8 Regulation of Convection Onsets During the 15 December 1992 TOGA COARE mesoscale convective system   Badrinath Nagarajan, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and D. L. Zhang
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday Joint Session 2 Ocean Interaction Effects on Tropical Cyclone Intensity II/JASMINE I (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Organizer: Pete Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM J2.1 A Study of Ocean-atmospheric Interactions over the Gulf of Mexico during Non Cyclonic and Cyclonic Activity   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and R. Guyton and R. L. Miller 10:30 AM J2.2 How sea spray can affect the intensity of tropical cyclones   Edgar L Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and K. A. Emanuel 10:45 AM J2.3 On the Effect of Sea Spray Evaporation on Tropical Cyclone Boundary-layer Structure and Intensity   Yuqing Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. D. Kepert and G. J. Holland 11:00 AM J2.4 Exploring the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon: An overview of JASMINE   Peter J. Webster, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO 11:15 AM J2.5 Deep Convection Observed During the May-August 1999 Indian Monsoon   Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. M. Lawrence and P. J. Webster 11:30 AM J2.6 The northward propagating envelope of convection during JASMINE   David M. Lawrence, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster
	12:00 PM-1:45 PM, Wednesday Poster Session 1 Lunch Poster Session (Lunch provided at Convention Center with sponsorship from Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Hawthorn, Vic., Australia)
P1.1 Simulation and analysis of inner-core vorticity mixing with a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic mesoscale model   Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grasso and D. S. Nolan   P1.2 Some Aspects of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones   Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, Colorado   P1.3 Status of the UW-CIMSS Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT)   Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden   P1.4 Warm core ocean features in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico   Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black, L. K. Shay, J. J. Cione, S. D. Jacob, and G. Goni   P1.5 Structure, variability, and forcing of the East Asian Subtropical Jet   Randell J. Barry, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   P1.6 Surface-based modification of convectively-generated mesovortices and its implications for tropical cyclogenesis   Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL   P1.7 The 1999 Hurricane Season in East Central Florida—Multiple Storms with Multiple Impacts   D. Scott Kelly, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and M. W. Bragaw and S. M. Spratt   P1.8 Surface wind field during tropical cyclone generation period by satellites   Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and C. Zhu P1.9 Seasonal Forecast of tropical storms at ECMWF   Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom   P1.10 Sea wave activity associated to cold surges over Gulf of Mexico   Ernesto S. Caetano Neto, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and R. V. Hernandez and J. L. Vazquez   P1.11 Mesoscale model simulations of gravity waves in a convecting atmosphere   Adam H. Sobel, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton P1.12 Moist Convection Schemes on the Responses of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure to Local Surface Coolings   Weixing Shen, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and M. Bender   P1.13 New Findings on Tibetan Plateau Field Experiment (TIPEX)   Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and X. Xu   P1.14 Numerical predictions of rainfall in Hurricane Floyd (1999)   Elizabeth C. Wood, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank   P1.15 On the role of surface friction in tropical cyclogenesis   Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen and W. K. Tao   P1.16 Operational use of CIMSS objective dvorak technique   Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC   P1.17 The Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft   Greg Tyrrell, Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. Becker and G. J. Holland   P1.18 Three-dimensional, Asymmetric, Nonhydrostatic, Unstable eigenmodes in Initially balanced, hurricane-like vortices   David S. Nolan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery   P1.19 Trapped-fetch waves in a transitioning tropical cyclone (part II-analytical and predictive model)   Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. J. Bowyer   P1.20 Trends in global tropical cyclone numbers 1969-1998   F. P. Roberts, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders   P1.21 Tropical Microwave Brightness Temperature Data from AMPR   Frank J. LaFontaine, Raytheon ITSS, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Hood and A. R. Guillory   P1.22 Updated environmental structure characteristics for southern hemisphere application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting   Grahame Reader, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia; and M. A. Boothe, R. L. Elsberry, and L. E. Carr   P1.23 Utility of the WSR-88D Default and Tropical Z/R Relationships over South Texas during Hurricane Bret   Waylon Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and R. Burton and A. Patrick P1.24 The Automated Tropical Cyclone System Version 3.4   Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. J. Schrader   P1.25 Three-Dimensional Structure, Scale Interactions, and Moisture Transport in Three Types of Tropical Plumes   Richard D. Knabb, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and H. E. Fuelberg   P1.26 Observations of the boundary layer of Tropical Cyclone Vance   Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and G. J. Holland   P1.27 The first eyewall penetration by the NOAA G-IV aircraft   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. B. Damiano and S. R. White   P1.28 The highly asymmetric structure of Hurricane Earl (1998) near landfall   Mark A. Croxford, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. L. Black   P1.29 The monsoon as a coupled ocean-atmosphere self-regulating system   Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO   P1.30 The operational ensemble of tropical cyclone track guidance at the National Hurricane Center (1976-1998)   Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. Bedka   P1.31 The tropical cyclone distribution in the western North Pacific during the El Nino-La Nina swing of 1997–99: Extraordinary interannual changes   Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam   P1.32 The WWRP/TMRP International Tropical Cyclone Landfall Program (ITCLP)   Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia   P1.33 Meso-Vortices Observed by WSR-88D in the Inner Rainbands of Hurricanes Irene and Georges   John E. Wright, Center Weather Service Unit, Miami, FL   P1.34 Effect of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity on peninsular Florida rainfall   Eric Swartz, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, Florida; and G. Shaughnessy   P1.35 An investigation of precipitation structures in Hurricane Bonnie   Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and E. J. Zipser, G. M. Heymsfield, R. E. Hood, and M. G. Bateman   P1.36 An investigation of the structure of Hurricane Danielle (1998) using HRD dropwindsondes   Helga Weindl, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith   P1.37 Are the Beta Gyres Really Normal Modes?   Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. W. Jones   P1.38 Automated passive microwave tropical cyclone intensity algorithms   Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Tag, J. Sandidge, J. D. Hawkins, and M. J. Helveston P1.39 Automated tropical cyclone intensities utilizing objective Dvorak input to passive microwave algorithm   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Velden, P. M. Tag, R. L. Bankert, T. L. Olander, and J. Sandidge   P1.40 Caribbean Sea tropical cyclones variations and tendencies   Maritza Ballester Pérez, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba; and C. G. Pedroso and R. P. Suárez   P1.41 A tropical cyclone activity seasonal forecast model on the Atlantic basin   Maritza Ballester Pérez, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba; and C. G. Pedroso and R. P. Suárez   P1.42 Low level wind maxima observed by GPS dropsondes and their links to changes in the intensity of Hurricanes Bret and Floyd   Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS   P1.43 A comparison of scatterometer-derived wind data over tropical cyclones as determined from ERS-2 and QuickSCAT data   Roger T. Edson, Analysis and Technology, Inc., Magnilao, Guam; and J. D. Hawkins P1.44 A Comparison of Two Different Tornadic Environments: Bertha ‘96 and Danny ‘97 Vs. Dennis ‘99 and Floyd ‘99   Hugh D. Cobb III, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and N. A. Stuart   P1.45 A distributed real-time hurricane wind analysis system   Sonia Otero, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and N. Morisseau-Leroy, N. Carrasco, and M. D. Powell P1.46 A High Resolution Nonhydrostatic Tropical Cyclone Model   Kwok Aun Tan, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. Leslie   P1.47 A new era in hurricane reconnaissance: Real time measurement of surface wind structure and intensity via microwave remote sensing   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. Uhlhorn, M. D. Powell, and J. Carswell P1.48 A Sensitivity Study of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes on Tropical Cyclone at Landfall   Sen Chiao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin   P1.49 Comparison of discretization accuracy in an adaptive multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model   Miao Hu, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY; and S. R. Fulton   P1.50 Idealized modeling of hurricane-trough interaction: analyses of storm structure and intensification   Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and S. K. Kimball   P1.51 Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall : Predictive relationships and their decadal variability   Christina O. Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Cole and P. J. Webster   P1.52 Inflow trajectories in a model hurricane   Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, A. Baerman, R. Draxler, and R. Tuleya   P1.53 Inherent uncertainties in numerical modeling of hurricane intensity   Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang   P1.54 Instrument Wetting Errors in Hurricanes: Magnitude, Frequency, and Effects upon Thermodynamic Structure   Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO   P1.55 Intraseasonal and Interannual Modulation of Westerly Wind Bursts   Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO   P1.56 Irreversible processes in nature and numerical models   Nilton O. Rennó, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and D. J. Raymond   P1.57 Hydrologic Cycle of the Indo-Asian Monsoon: Part I, The Wet Season   John T. Fasullo, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster   P1.58 Detailed surface features associated with Tropical Storm Floyd (1999) at landfall   Kwan-yin Kong, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL   P1.59 Maximum substained winds in Hurricane Irene as measured by the Miami WSR-88D   Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and P. Dodge   P1.60 Ensemble Simulation of Tropical Convection in a Two-Column Model   Xiping Zeng, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond   P1.61 Experimental real-time intraseasonal forecasting of Australian tropical cyclones   Sam Cleland, Bureau of Meteorology, Casuarina, NT, Australia; and P. Bate and C. Landsea   P1.62 Experiments with an adaptive multigrid shallow-water tropical cyclone model   Brittany L. Mitchell, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY; and S. R. Fulton   P1.63 Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion near Vietnam using a Nested Barotropic Model   Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and M. J. Reeder, N. E. Davidson, and M. Adams   P1.64 Gross moist stability in tropical systems   Carlos López-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond   P1.65 A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones   Robert E. Hart, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans   P1.66 MESOCYCLONE-INDUCED DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALL OF HURRICANE IRENE (1999) OVER SOUTH FLORIDA   Stacy R. Stewart, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. Robbins   P1.67 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE IRENE (1999)   John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart   P1.68 Empirical Modes of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in North Carolina   Lian Xie, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Wu and L. J. Pietrafesa   P1.69 DYNAMICS OVER TROPICAL AFRICA AND ATLANTIC HURRICANES   J. A. Adedoyin, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana   P1.70 Large-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure of Tibetan plateau and the Impact of its Convection During TIPEX   Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China   P1.71 Tropical convection and large-scale equatorial disturbances: Results from 2D cloud-resolving and 3D CRCP global modeling (Formerly paper 3C.2)   Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. K. Smolarkiewicz and M. Andrejczuk
	1:45 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday Session 6A Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting I (Parallel with Sessions 6B and J3)
Organizer: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL
1:45 PM 6A.1 Hurricane maximum intensity: past and present   J. Parks Camp, NOAA/NWS, Mobile, AL; and M. T. Montgomery 2:00 PM 6A.2 Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin   John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria 2:15 PM 6A.3 Structure and Motion of Tropical Storms in NCEP s Operational Eta Model   Mukut B. Mathur, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 2:30 PM 6A.4 A case study of tropical cyclone intensity forecast depending on cumulus parameterization   Akihiko Murata, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Ueno 2:45 PM 6A.5 Forecast Skill of a Simplified Hurricane Intensity Prediction Model   Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. Rappaport 3:00 PM 6A.6 Improvements to the GFDL hurricane forecast system   Robert E. Tuleya, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. A. Bender 3:15 PM 6A.7 Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme using GOES imagery   Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and R. M. Zehr, C. S. Velden, and F. M. Horsfall
	1:45 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday Session 6B Tropical cyclogenesis I (Parallel with Sessions 6A and J3)
Organizer: Michael Fiorino, LLNL, Livermore, CA
1:45 PM 6B.1 An Overview of Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis   John Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro 6B.2 The overland reintensification of Hurricane Danny in July of 1997   Chris Smallcomb, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 2:00 PM 6B.3 A Numerical Simulation of the Environmental Momentum Influences on Typhoon Formation   Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. H. Lee 2:14 PM 6B.4 Numerical simulations of the genesis of hurricane Diana (1984)   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart 6B.5 Medium-Range forecast of tropical storm genesis in a T63 Coupled GCM   Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 2:29 PM 6B.6 Tropical storm genesis in operational model forecasts: problems and challenges   Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, S. J. Lord, and S. Y. Hong
	2:00 PM-3:29 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 3 JASMINE II (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmospehere)
Organizer: Peter Webster, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
J3.1 Vertical structure over the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon onset   Yolande L. Serra, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2:00 PM J3.2 Cloud Statistics during JASMINE from 35 GHz Cloud Radar   Michelle N. Ryan, Science & Technology Corporation, Boulder, CO; and T. Uttal 2:14 PM J3.3 An analysis of downwelling IR fluxes over the Indian Ocean using cloud radar reflectivity for pre-monsoon and monsoon periods during JASMINE   Catherine A. Russell, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and C. W. Fairall and M. N. Ryan 2:29 PM J3.4 JASMINE observations of upper ocean structure and variability in the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon   Peter Hacker, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Lukas, E. Firing, and J. S. Godfrey 2:44 PM J3.5 Heat and Freshwater Budgets From Two Intensive Upper Ocean Surveys During JASMINE   Roger Lukas, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Feng and P. Hacker 2:59 PM J3.6 Air-Sea Flux Measurements in the Bay of Bengal during the JASMINE Field Program   C. W. Fairall, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hare, A. A. Grachev, and E. F. Bradley 3:14 PM J3.7 Air-sea interaction in the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon period   E. Frank Bradley, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia; and J. S. Godfrey, T. J. Ansell, and M. G. Wells
	3:30 PM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	4:00 PM-5:29 PM, Wednesday Session 7A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting II (Parallel with Sessions 7B and J4)
Organizer: Miles B. Lawrence, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL
4:00 PM 7A.1 Observations of Low level wind maxima using GPS dropsondes and their link to 200 Millibar Clues Identifying the Onset of Rapid Intensification   Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS 4:15 PM 7A.2 Midget tropical cyclones in the subtropics   Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam 4:30 PM 7A.3 Evaluation of TRMM and SSM/I imagery in the early development of tropical cyclones   Roger T. Edson, Analysis and Technology, Inc., Magnilao, Guam 4:45 PM 7A.4 A Quantitative Look at the Relationship between Enivornmental Vertical Wind Shear and Tropical Cyclone Intesity Change Utilizing Enhanced Satellite Derived Wind Information   Gregory M. Gallina, CIMSS, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 5:00 PM 7A.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using the NOAA-KLM Series advanced microwave sounding unit (AMSU):Preliminary Results and future prospects   Kurt F. Brueske, USAF and CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 7A.6 Intensity estimation from satellites:An ensemble approach   Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. D. Hawkins, T. L. Olander, R. Bankert, P. Tag, K. Brueske, and J. Chase 5:15 PM 7A.7 A prototype real-time wind and wave forecasting system for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin   John L. Guiney, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and H. Graber, V. J. Cardone, R. E. Jensen, M. D. Powell, and P. G. Black
	4:00 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday Session 7B Tropical Cyclogenesis II (Parallel with Sessions 7A and J4)
Organizer: John E. Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY
4:00 PM 7B.1 Tropical cyclogenesis and stable isotope ratios of water   James R. Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman and J. Gamache 4:15 PM 7B.2 Mesoscale analysis of a formation process of Typhoon REX(T9804) from research vessel Keifu Maru radar observations   Kazumasa Mori, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Maehira, T. Mizuno, C. Nara, and H. Sakakibara 4:30 PM 7B.3 The role of easterly waves in the formation of East Pacific tropical cyclone precursors   Luis M. Farfán, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. A. Zehnder 4:45 PM 7B.4 **Mixed Rossby-gravity waves and Western Pacific tropical cyclogenesis   Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY 5:00 PM 7B.5 3D alignment and co-rotation of Weak, TC-Like Vortices Via Linear Vortex Rossby Waves   Paul D. Reasor, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
	4:00 PM-6:00 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 4 Influence of air-sea interactions on monsoon development, variability and predictability (Joint Session with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Organizer: Victor Magana, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City Mexico
4:00 PM J4.1 Relationships between Northern Gulf of California Sea Surface Temperatures and Arizona Summer Rainfall   David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Ivanova, R. Rabin, and K. Redmond 4:15 PM J4.2 Impact of air-sea coupling on the MJO in a General Circulation Model   Harry Hendon, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO 4:30 PM J4.3 Mechanisms of the ENSO-Monsoon Interaction During Mature-Decay Phase of ENSO Cycle   Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and X. Fu 4:45 PM J4.4 Intraseasonal Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Interaction during Northern Summer   Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Weng 5:00 PM J4.5 Annual cycle and interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon system   Michio Yanai, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Liu 5:15 PM J4.6 The role of SST on the Asian summer monsoon circulation   P. L. S. Rao, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India 5:30 PM J4.7 Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Indian Ocean   Galina Chirokova, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster 5:45 PM J4.8 Influence of Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon during Eastern Pacific warm events   Brian N. Belcher, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Sessions End For The Day
Thursday, 25 May 2000
	8:00 AM-9:44 AM, Thursday Session 8A Tropical cyclones at landfall I (Parallel with Sessions 8B and J5)
Organizer: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 8A.1 The sensitivity of landfalling tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to Indian Ocean SST anomalies   Robert F. Abbey Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie and L. Qi 8:15 AM 8A.2 Evolution of Typhoon Zeb (1998) in a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model   Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou 8:30 AM 8A.3 Tropical cyclone landfall along the South China Coast   Simon E. Ching, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan and E. S. T. Lai 8A.4 Characteristics of Offshore typhoon motion and the Multiscale Dynamic Interaction between it and its Environmental Factors   Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Meng and Y. Weng 8:45 AM 8A.5 A Study on Sudden Intensification of Typhoon Sam at Hongkong coast area   Jizhi Wang, National Meteorological Center of China, Beijing, China; and G. Zhang and Y. Yang 8:59 AM 8A.6 Interaction of a tropical depression with Taiwan topography and its Impacts on Producing Heavy Orographic Rainfall   Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Chiao, T. -. A. Wang, B. -. W. Shen, G. Lai, C. -. P. Pu, and C. -. W. Lee 9:14 AM 8A.7 Simulations of landfalling tropical cyclones using a movable nested-mesh coupled air-sea interaction model   Clark Rowley, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis 9:29 AM 8A.8 Effects of Surface Water over Land on Landfalling Hurricanes: A Numerical Investigation with the GFDL Hurricane Model   Weixing Shen, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and R. E. Tuleya
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday Session 8B Extratropical transition I (Parallel with Sessions 8A and J5)
Organizer: Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM 8B.1 Extratropical transitions: Large-scale aspects   Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah 8:15 AM 8B.2 **Extratropical Transitions: Precipitation Distribution   Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY 8:30 AM 8B.3 Stable Isotope Ratios and the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones   Stanley David Gedzelman, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence 8:45 AM 8B.4 Extratropical transition of Typhoon Vicki (9807)   Naoko Kitabatake, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 9:00 AM 8B.5 A composite study of Extratropical Transformation in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996   John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and C. T. Fogarty 9:15 AM 8B.6 Trapped-fetch waves in a transitioning tropical cyclone (part I—the need and the theory)   Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. J. Bowyer 9:30 AM 8B.7 Phenomenal waves with a transitioning tropical cyclone (Luis, the Queen, and the Buoys)   Peter J. Bowyer, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
	8:00 AM-8:15 AM, Thursday Joint Session 5 Debate: "Is There Skill in Forecasting El Nino and La Nina Events?" (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
8:00 AM J5.1 Write-up of Debate   D. Enfield, R. Livezey, J. Knaff,
	9:45 AM, Thursday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:30 PM, Thursday Session 9A Tropical Cyclone at Landfall II (Parallel with Sessions 9B and J6)
Organizer: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 9A.1 Vertical Reflectivity Profiles and Lightning Characteristics of Landfalling Hurricanes and Tropical Storms   David B. Wolff, SSAI and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 10:30 AM 9A.2 WSR-88D Derived Rainfall Distributions in Hurricane Danny (1997)   Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Selevan and J. Gamache 10:45 AM 9A.3 Examining the pre-landfall environment of Mesovortices within a hurricane Bonnie (1998) Outer Rainband   Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and F. D. Marks, P. P. Dodge, and D. W. Sharp 11:00 AM 9A.4 Dual-doppler analyses of mesovortices in a hurricane rainband   Peter Dodge, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Spratt, F. D. Marks, Jr., D. Sharp, and J. Gamache 11:15 AM 9A.5 Mesocyclone-Induced Downbursts Associated with the Landfall of Hurricane Irene (1999) over South Florida   Stacy R. Stewart, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. C. Robbins 11:30 AM 9A.6 Case studies of tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones based on conventional and WSR-88D data   Gandikota V. Rao, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. Edwards and J. Scheck 11:45 AM 9A.7 An Examination of a Tornadic Mesocyclone Associated with Tropical Storm Mitch in the Upper Keys of Florida   Dan J. Grams, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson 12:00 PM 9A.8 An objective method to determine Tropical Cyclone center near landfall from WSR-88D data—The GBVTD- simplex algorithm   Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. D. Marks 12:15 PM 9A.9 Evaluating the GBVTD-tropical center finding simplex algorithm   Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. -. C. Lee and F. D. Marks
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Thursday Session 9B Extratropical Transition II (Parallel with Sessions 9A and J6)
Organizer: Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY
10:15 AM 9B.1 Mesoscale features of diverging strong winds associated with a typhoon in extratropical transition   Hitoshi Sakakibara, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and F. Fujibe, N. Kitabatake, Y. Tanaka, and K. Bessho 10:30 AM 9B.2 Extratropical transition in the western North Pacific: Demonstration of the importance of phasing with the mid-latitude circulation pattern during the re-intensification stage   Peter M. Klein, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry 10:45 AM 9B.3 The longevity of tropical-cyclone vortices after extratropical transition   Sarah C. Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and C. Thorncroft 11:00 AM 9B.4 Sensitivity testing of Hurricane Earl's extratropical transformaion using PV inversions to modify initial conditions   Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Monteal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and J. R. Gyakum 11:15 AM 9B.5 Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones   Elizabeth A. Ritchie, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry 11:30 AM 9B.6 **Defining the extratropical transition lifecycle using objective indicators of transition   Robert E. Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday Joint Session 6 Predictability of the tropical atmosphere-ocean system on seasonal timescales (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
10:15 AM J6.1 Air-sea feedbacks in the western Pacific using a coupled single-column model   Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and A. Chen 10:30 AM J6.2 A unified theory for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation   Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL 10:45 AM J6.3 A Generalized Canonical Mixed Regression Model for ENSO Prediction with Its Experiment   Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, China; and S. Neng and D. Yuguo 11:00 AM J6.4 How much "skill" was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina events?   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Knaff 11:15 AM J6.5 Multi-model superensemble forecasts for Weather and seasonal climate   T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. R. Bachiochi, C. E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran 11:30 AM J6.6 A Poisson generalised linear model for the extended range forecasting of seasonal typhoon numbers   F. P. Roberts, Univ. College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom 11:45 AM J6.7 Tropospheric direct circulations associated with the climatic components of SST variability in the equatorial Pacific   David B. Enfield, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and A. Mestas-Nuñez
	12:00 PM-1:15 PM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:15 PM-3:15 PM, Thursday Session 10A Tropical Cyclone at Landfall III (Parallel with Sessions 10B and J7)
Organizer: Clark Rowley, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
1:15 PM 10A.1 Accuracy of U.S. Hurricane Landfall forecasts in the Atlantic basin 1976–1998   Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson 1:30 PM 10A.2 Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall   Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. C. Vandemark, W. B. Krabill, A. W. Garcia, S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks 1:45 PM 10A.3 The distribution of tropical cyclone precipitation: satellite estimates and flood mitigation   Arlene G. Laing, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL 2:00 PM 10A.4 Hurricane Bret: A major hurricane landfall in south Texas   Shawn P. Bennett, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and A. Patrick 2:15 PM 10A.5 The Texas Tech University Wind Engineering Mobile Instrumented Tower Experiment (WEMITE): deployment operations during the 1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season   J. Rob Howard, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder and A. L. Doggett 2:30 PM 10A.6 Boundary Layer Characteristics in Hurricanes Bonnie (1998), Dennis (1999), and Floyd (1999) as determined from the Texas Tech University Wind Engineering Mobile Instrumented Tower Experiment (WEMITE)   John L. Schroeder, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. R. Howard and D. A. Smith 2:45 PM 10A.7 Doppler Profiler Observations of the Boundary Layer within the Eyewall of Hurricane Georges during Landfall   Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters and E. W. McCaul 3:00 PM 10A.8 Surface winds in hurricanes from GPS-sondes: Comparisons with observations   Sam H. Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. P. Dodge, M. D. Powell, M. L. Black, G. M. Barnes, and P. S. Chu
	1:15 PM-2:45 PM, Thursday Session 10B Convective parameterization (Parallel with Sessions 10A and J7)
Organizer: Nilton Renno, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
1:15 PM 10B.1 Remarks on Arakawa-Schubert's Quasi-Equilibrium theory   David K. Adams, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and N. O. Rennó 10B.2 The testing of a convective parametrization scheme in an idealised tropical atmosphere   Mike E. B. Gray, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and C. Marshall and S. F. Milton 1:30 PM 10B.3 Impact of the cumulus-scale effects in a mesoscale convection resolving model   Tomoe Nasuno, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Yamasaki 1:45 PM 10B.4 COARE simulations with the mesoscale model MM5: various sensitivities to physical parameterizations   Françoise Guichard, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Dudhia and D. Parsons 2:00 PM 10B.5 Implementing the vigor of convection and the ambient wind shear into the CSU GCM   Xin Lin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall and L. D. Fowler 2:15 PM 10B.6 Performance of NOGAPS on the Predictions of tropical cyclones using different convective parameterization schemes   Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Hogan 2:30 PM 10B.7 The role of cumulus schemes in the reproducibility of tropical cyclones by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3)   Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and A. Kasahara
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday Joint Session 7 Atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in tropical cyclones I (Joint Session with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Organizer: Joe Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
1:15 PM J7.1 A Smart Balloon Designed to Investigate Hurricane Inflow Energetics   Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes, R. Johnson, and J. A. Businger 1:30 PM J7.2 Analysis Of a Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Database Against MM5 Model Simulations   Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and Y. Li and R. Mahecha 1:45 PM J7.3 Large eddy simulations of the hurricane boundary layer   Shouping Wang, USRA, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul and K. R. Knupp 2:00 PM J7.4 Development of an over-water gust factor model for hurricane conditions   Craig A. Miller, Risk Management Solutions Ltd, London, United Kingdom 2:15 PM J7.5 Comparison of Gust Factor Data from Hurricanes   Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson 2:30 PM J7.6 A numerical study of the Gulf Stream response to hurricanes   Sergey A. Frolov, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis 2:45 PM J7.7 Sea surface salinity reduction in the upper ocean induced by tropical cyclones   Vladimir Pudov, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, Obninsk, Russia; and I. Ginis
	3:00 PM, Thursday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Thursday Session 11A CAMEX (Parallel with Sessions 11B and J8)
Organizer: Robbie E. Hood, Global Hydrology and Climate Center, Huntsville, Alabama
3:30 PM 11A.1 Passive microwave observations of Hurricanes during CAMEX-3   Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and E. A. Smith, F. J. LaFontaine, and A. R. Guillory 3:45 PM 11A.2 The Modification of the Water Vapor Profile during the Passage of a Tropical System   Allison G. Schauer, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and F. J. Schmidlin 4:00 PM 11A.3 Hurricane wind field measurements with scanning airborne Doppler lidar during CAMEX-3   Jeffry Rothermel, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and D. R. Cutten, J. N. Howell, L. S. Darby, R. M. Hardesty, D. M. Tratt, and R. T. Menzies 4:15 PM 11A.4 Hurricane Bonnie Landfalling Observed From ER-2 doppler radar on 26 August 1998 During CAMEX-3   Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson, L. Tian, and B. Geerts 4:30 PM 11A.5 Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air Into Hurricane Earl   Anthony R. Guillory, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and G. J. Jedlovec, R. E. Hood, R. J. Atkinson, and F. J. LaFontaine 4:45 PM 11A.6 Lidar simulations over hurricane Bonnie using CAMEX-3 data, a Lidar simulation model and numerical model anaylses   Steven Greco, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and S. A. Wood, G. D. Emmitt, M. Nicholls, and R. A. Pielke 5:00 PM 11A.7 An investigation of the impact of including CAMEX-3 data on high resolution Hurricane Bonnie simulations   Melville E. Nicholls, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, S. Greco, and C. D. Emmitt
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday Session 11B North African monsoon (Parallel with Sessions 11A and J8) [This session is dedicated to the memory of Prof. Fongang, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère]
Organizer: John Fasullo, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 11B.1 The West African monsoon onset and intra-seasonal variability   Serge Janicot, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and B. X. Sultan 3:45 PM 11B.2 Water cycle and mesoscale convective systems over West Africa   Siméon Fongang, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Dakar, Senegal; and S. M. Sall, F. K. Panda, J. Citeau, A. Gaye, and D. Badiane 4:00 PM 11B.3 Sensitivity of the West African Monsoon to Atlantic SST Anomalies   Edward K Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook 4:15 PM 11B.4 Recent trend in weather forecasting in West Africa using satellite imageries and global models   Sam Gbuyiro, Federal Department of Meteorology, Lagos, Nigeria 4:30 PM 11B.5 Assessment the 1999 Sahel summer rains and seasonal forecast verifications   Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Washington, DC; and G. Bell and A. G. Barnston 4:45 PM 11B.6 Relationship between East African coastal rainfall and Indian Ocean SST   Christina O. Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and J. E. Cole
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday Joint Session 8 Atmospheric & Oceanic Boundary Layers on Tropical Cyclones II (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Organizer: Nick Shay, Univ. of Miami, RSMAS, Miami, FL
3:30 PM J8.1 Tropical cyclone boundary layer wind variability   Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. A. Reinhold and R. D. Marshall 3:45 PM J8.2 High Surface Winds in Tropical Cyclones: Boundary-Layer Models vs. Dropsonde Observations   Lixin Zeng, E.W. Blanch Co., Minneapolis, MN; and R. A. Brown 4:00 PM J8.3 Inflow Layer Energetics of Hurricane Bonnie near Landfall   Derek R. Wroe, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes 4:15 PM J8.4 Turbulence in the Ocean Boundary Layer Below Hurricane Dennis   Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. G. Black 4:30 PM J8.5 Response of the Coastal Ocean to Hurricanes Floyd and Irene at the South Florida Ocean Measurement Center   Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. H. Weisberg and M. E. Luther 4:45 PM J8.6 Upper Ocean Response to Hurricane Wind Asymmetries   S. Daniel Jacob, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, and S. H. Houston 5:00 PM J8.7 Coupled Air-Sea Interactions During Hurricane Bonnie   Thomas M. Cook, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, G. J. Goni, M. M. Huber, S. D. Jacob, and J. J. Cione 5:15 PM J8.8 Atmospheric boundary layer and upper ocean structure observed in Hurricane Erika (1997)   Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn and P. G. Black
	5:30 PM, Thursday Sessions End For The Day
	7:00 PM-9:00 PM, Thursday Session 11C Conference Banquet, Speaker: Peter Davies (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
7:00 PM 11C.1 Biography of Banquet Speaker   Peter Davies, Author, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom
Friday, 26 May 2000
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday Session 12A Tropical cyclone structure I (Parallel with Sessions 12B and 12C)
Organizer: Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 12A.1 Dynamically-Induced Vertical Motion in Hurricane's Inner-Core regions   Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Liu and M. K. Yau 8:15 AM 12A.2 Boundary layer structure and dynamics beneath a translating tropical cyclone   Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang 8:30 AM 12A.3 Wind Speed Fluctuations on Scale of 10km and less than 1km Observed in Typhoon Violet   Yoshinobu Tanaka, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan 8:45 AM 12A.4 Vortex Rossby Waves and vorticity mixing in a MM5 simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991)   John D. Fulton, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and S. A. Braun 9:00 AM 12A.5 Kinematic and thermodynamic structures of Hurricane Bob (1991) determined from a 1.3-km resolution numerical simulation   Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Simpson and W. K. Tao 9:15 AM 12A.6 Polygonal eye-walls in barotropic, hurricane-like vortices   Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany 9:30 AM 12A.7 **Observational Evidence for Horizontal Mixing in the Hurricane Near-Core   James P. Kossin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 9:45 AM 12A.8 Synoptic Structure and evolution of a kona low   Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday Session 12B Tropical cyclone track forecasting I (Parallel with Sessions 12A and 12C)
Organizer: Les Carr, NPS, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM 12B.1 Evaluation of Dynamical Track Predictions for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific: Extensions to Other Years and Dynamical Models   George M. Dunnavan, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr, R. L. Elsberry, and M. A. Boothe 8:15 AM 12B.2 THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK IN EAST CHINA SEA AND ITS IMPROVEMENT RESEARCH   Xu Yiming, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China 8:30 AM 12B.3 Performance of the Typhoon Forecast System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan   K.-N. Huang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. -. C. Yeh, D. S. Chen, and M. S. Peng 8:45 AM 12B.4 A review of the UK Met. Office global model tropical cyclone forecasting performance 1990–2000   Julian T. Heming, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom 9:00 AM 12B.5 Evaluation of dynamical track predictions for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during 1995–98   David S. Brown, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. A. Boothe, L. E. Carr, and R. L. Elsberry 9:15 AM 12B.6 Comparison of the performance of the GFDL hurricane model, using the AVN, UKMET and NOGAPS analysis   Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. T. Heming and R. Stocker 9:30 AM 12B.7 An Analysis of the Track and Intensity Errors of Operational Global and Regional Models   Timothy P. Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, NWS/NCEP, and SAIC, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya and S. J. Lord 9:45 AM 12B.8 Geographic distribution of hurricane model track forecast errors   Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday Session 12C Monsoons and the intertropical convergenze zone I (Parallel with Sessions 12A and 12B)
Organizer: Harry Hendon, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 12C.1 Relationship between the South Asian Summer Monsoon and Rainfall Anomalies Associated with the East Asia summer monsoon   Jianjun Xu, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 8:15 AM 12C.2 Relationship between Indian monsoon precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau   Xiaodong Liu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 8:30 AM 12C.3 Hydrologic Cycle of the Indo-Asian Monsoon part II: Interannual Variability   John T. Fasullo, PAOS/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster 8:45 AM 12C.4 Fine vertical structure of the divergence in the upper troposphere of the tropics   Noriyuki Nishi, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 9:00 AM 12C.5 Double ITCZs   Chidong Zhang, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL 9:15 AM 12C.6 The Deformation of Large Cloud Disturbance on Western Tropical Pacific   Atsushi Hamada, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and N. Nishi and H. Kida 9:30 AM 12C.7 Real-Time Mesoscale Numerical Simulations in Support of Astronomical Operations at Mauna Kea Observatories   Richard D. Knabb, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. McLaren, J. Tonry, R. Wainscoat, S. Businger, R. Ogasawara, D. Simons, and M. Mountain
	9:45 AM, Friday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:15 PM, Friday Session 13A Tropical Cyclones Structure II (Parallel with Sessions 13B and 13C)
Organizer: Michael Black, NOAA/AOMA/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 13A.1 A numerical study of the distribution of precipitation in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)   Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. E. Tenerelli, and M. Lonfat 10:30 AM 13A.2 **Convective asymmetries in tropical cyclones   Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY 10:45 AM 13A.3 **Reflectivity, ice scattering, and lightning characteristics of tropical cyclone eyewalls, inner rainbands, adn outer rainbands   Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX 11:00 AM 13A.4 The Eyewall of Category 1 Hurricane Paine near Landfall   Sean K. Daida, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes 11:15 AM 13A.5 Radial variation of azimuthally averaged flow across the hurricane core as observed with airborne Doppler Radar   John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and H. E. Willoughby 11:30 AM 13A.6 Surface winds in hurricane Floyd: a comparison numerical simulations, aircraft, and QuikScat satellite data   Joseph E. Tenerelli, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, R. Foster, M. Lonfat, W. T. Liu, and R. Rogers 11:45 AM 13A.7 Tropical Storm Alex and the potential for midget tropical cyclones to go undetected   Dan B. Mundell, NOAA/NWS, Dededo, Guam 12:00 PM 13A.8 An experimental examination of hurricane mesovortices: Flow apparatus and particle image velocimetry measurements   Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and V. A. Vladimirov and P. V. Denissenko
	10:15 AM-12:15 PM, Friday Session 13C Monsoons and the Intertropical Convergence Zone II (Parallel with Sessions 13A and 13B)
Organizer: David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
10:15 AM 13C.1 On the Origin of Monsoon   Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen 10:30 AM 13C.2 Large-scale precipitation and latent heating distributions in the Tropics derived from satellite-borne passive and active microwave sensors   William S. Olson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and Y. Hong, S. Yang, C. D. Kummerow, and W. -. K. Tao 10:45 AM 13C.3 The Cross-Equatorial Hadley Circulation of the Eastern Pacific   Manuel Rodríguez-Achach, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond, L. Hartten, and K. S. Gage 11:00 AM 13C.4 Distortion of the Pacific ITCZ by the American landmass   Brian E. Mapes, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and M. Xu 11:15 AM 13C.5 Formation of a Northward Displaced ITCZ in a Hybrid Coupled AGCM   Shang-Ping Xie, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Saito, H. Okajima, and A. Numaguti 11:30 AM 13C.6 **Diurnal Variability and Energetics of the North American Monsoon   Connie M. Klimczak, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL 11:45 AM 13C.7 Dynamical features associated with 4–8 day variability in the OLR in the east Pacific Oceans   Robert A. Tomas, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster 12:00 PM 13C.8 Idealized simulations of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone   Edward Colón, Howard University, Washington, DC; and R. N. Ferreira and M. J. Suarez
	10:30 AM-11:59 AM, Friday Session 13B Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting II (Parallel with Sessions 13A and 13C)
Organizer: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
10:30 AM 13B.1 An Initialization Scheme for a Hurricane Prediction System   Houjun Wang, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank 13B.2 Initialization of a hurricane vortex   Katherine M. Bell, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 10:44 AM 13B.3 PV diagnostics of the impact of model initialization on the performance of a typhoon prediction system   Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. S. Huang, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh 10:59 AM 13B.4 Two initialisation (bogussing) techniques used at Meteo-France to improve tropical cyclone tracks forecasting   Isabelle Soulan, Météo-France, Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, Réunion, France; and J. M. Willemet, M. Bessafi, and R. El Khatib 11:14 AM 13B.5 Regionally bred modes and ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion   Kevin K. W. Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China 11:29 AM 13B.6 Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty using an ensemble of dynamical models   James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA 11:44 AM 13B.7 Applying clustering and ensemble prediction concepts to consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting   Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr 13B.8 Multi-model superensemble forecasts: Part II. Hurricane prediction   C. Eric Williford, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti
	12:15 PM, Friday Lunch Break
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Friday Session 14A Tropical Cyclone Structure III (Parallel with Sessions 14B and 14C)
Organizer: Robert Burpee, Miami, FL
1:15 PM 14A.1 Eyewall Wind Profiles in Hurricanes Determined by GPS Dropwindsondes   James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and K. Valde 1:30 PM 14A.2 GPS dropsonde observations of the wind structure in convective and non-convective regions of the hurricane eyewall   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin 1:45 PM 14A.3 The asymmetric wind structure of tropical cyclones in various shear environments   Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and J. L. Franklin 2:00 PM 14A.4 **Hurricane radial wind profiles derived from GPS dropwindsonde data   Robert N. LeeJoice, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 2:15 PM 14A.5 **Evaluation of Buoyant Motions within the Hurricane Inner Core   Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 2:30 PM 14A.6 The structure of Hurricane Irene over South Florida   Jack R. Parrish, NOAA/Aircraft Operations Center, MacDill AFB, FL; and M. L. Black, S. H. Houston, P. P. Dodge, and J. J. Cione 2:45 PM 14A.7 Mesoscale Convective Influences On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999)   John L. Beven II, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Friday Session 14B Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting III (Parallel with Sessions 14A and 14C)
Organizer: Russell Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA
1:15 PM 14B.1 Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) Using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Derived Winds   Tong Zhu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang and F. Weng 1:30 PM 14B.2 Steering dynamics of hurricanes based on satellite-derived far-field winds   Flavio Noca, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and C. S. Velden 1:45 PM 14B.3 Statistical post-processing of ECMWF tropical cyclone track forecasts   Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry 2:00 PM 14B.4 Hurricane surgery in global model forecast fields   Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, and H. L. Pan 2:15 PM 14B.5 Occurrences of Binary Tropical Cyclone and their characteristc track-modes in the western north pacific   Suguru Ishijima, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nishihara, Okinawa, Japan; and N. Servando 2:30 PM 14B.6 **An EOF Analysis and Modeling Study of the Multi-Typhoons Movement over the West Northern Pacific and the South China Sea   Ling-Feng Hsiao, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan 2:45 PM 14B.7 Interaction of binary tropical storms in a idealized background flow   Mitia Frumin, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. P. Khain, I. Ginis, and A. I. Falkovich
	1:15 PM-2:45 PM, Friday Session 14C Tropical cyclone climate variability and climate change (Parallel with Sessions 14A and 14B)
Organizer: Mark Saunders, Univ. College of London, London United Kingdom
1:15 PM 14C.1 Interdecadal variability in Queensland tropical cyclone occurrence   Andrew P. Grant, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh 1:30 PM 14C.2 **Long-Term Trends in North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity   Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO 1:45 PM 14C.3 Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century   J. B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. Jagger and X. Niu 2:00 PM 14C.4 Multiply-nested simulations of the poleward extent of tropical cyclones   Kevin J. E. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic., Australia; and K. -. C. Nguyen 2:15 PM 14C.5 Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency, part II   Jun Yoshimura, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Noda 2:30 PM 14C.6 Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling   Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis
	3:00 PM, Friday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Friday Session 15A Tropical Cyclone Structure IV (Parallel with Sessions 15B and 15C)
Organizer: Chris Velden, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
3:30 PM 15A.1 A Study of the Rain Distribution in Tropical Cyclones Using TRMM/TMI   Manuel Lonfat, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks and S. S. Chen 3:45 PM 15A.2 Structure of tropical clouds and precipitation as inferred from TRMM data   Guosheng Liu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. A. Curry and W. B. Rossow 4:00 PM 15A.3 Multi-satellite tropical cyclone structure (SSM/I & TMI)   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. L. Richardson, C. Sampson, and J. Kent 4:15 PM 15A.4 An objective method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity and structure from NOAA-15 Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) data   Julie L. Demuth, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and T. H. Voner Haar 4:30 PM 15A.5 Tropical Cyclone Research using Large Infrared Image Data Sets   Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO 4:45 PM 15A.6 Use surface adjusted GOES low-level cloud-drift winds to improve the estimation of tropical cyclone outer wind radii   Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, C. S. Velden, and P. G. Black 5:00 PM 15A.7 Validation of QuikScat Tropical Cyclone Winds   Deborah Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and C. Mears, C. Gentemann, and F. Wentz 5:15 PM 15A.8 Relationships Between The Multi-Layered Wind Field And The Intensity Of Hurricane Floyd   John A. Knaff, NOAA and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. S. Velden
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Friday Session 15B Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting IV (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15C)
Organizer: Julian Heming, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks. United Kingdom
3:30 PM 15B.1 Australian REID CLIPER   Russel P. Morison, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie 3:45 PM 15B.2 **A Kind of tangential wind profile for strong tropical cyclone and its contribution to abnormal tropical cyclone Track Prediction   Zhiyong Meng, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China 4:00 PM 15B.3 Sensitivity Studies with a new Nested Shallow-Water Model for Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction   Markus Adams, University of Munich, Munich, Germany 4:15 PM 15B.4 Recent advancements in tropical cyclone forecasting using regional models at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center   Roger A. Stocker, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and M. A. Rennick 4:30 PM 15B.5 MOCCANA performance and comparison with CLIPPER model   Miloud Bessafi, Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, La Reunion, France; and A. Lasserre-Bigorry 4:45 PM 15B.6 Developing a Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting expert system-1: Information management, visualization, and proactivity considerations   James E. Peak, Computer Sciences Corporation, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr and R. L. Elsberry 5:00 PM 15B.7 Developing a Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting expert system-2: Results of a real-time prototype test   Lester E. Carr III, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. M. Dunnavan, R. L. Elsberry, M. A. Boothe, and P. A. Harr
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Friday Session 15C Convective processes I (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15B)
Organizer: Christopher Bretherton, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
3:30 PM 15C.1 Radiative-Convective Processes in Regulating Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere   C.-H. Sui, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. -. M. Lau, X. Li, and C. -. H. Ho 3:45 PM 15C.2 Cloud-Radiation Interactions and Convective Forcing   David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. Lopez-Carillo 4:00 PM 15C.3 **Moisture interchange between clouds and environment in a tropical atmosphere   Carlos Lopez-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 4:15 PM 15C.4 Large-scale interactions among clouds, surface fluxes, and the tropical ocean mixed layer   Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. A. Curry, R. Reeder, and G. Liu 4:30 PM 15C.5 A study of 2–3 day convective processes in the tropical western Pacific warm pool   Brian Strahl, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson and J. Schrage 4:45 PM 15C.6 Cloud-resolving and single column model simulations of a Dry Intrusion observed during toga-coare   Jean-Luc Redelsperger, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and D. Parsons and F. Guichard 5:00 PM 15C.7 Convective momentum transport in the tropics: What can budget studies tell us?   Matthew T. Carr, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton 5:15 PM 15C.8 Convective heating and momentum transport associated with tropical disturbances   Wen-wen Tung, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai
	7:30 PM-9:30 PM, Friday Session Panel Discussion: How can we improve forecasting rainfall amounts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones and communicating this information to the public?
7:30 PM Write-up of panel discussion   Gary Barnes, Moderator - University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
Saturday, 27 May 2000
	8:15 AM-9:59 AM, Saturday Session 16B Convective Processes II (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16C)
Organizer: C. H. Sui, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:15 AM 16B.1 Convective/stratiform rain behavior from TRMM   Song Yang, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Kummerow, E. A. Smith, B. Olson, and Y. Hong 8:30 AM 16B.2 Vertical profiles of tropical convection as observed by the TRMM satellite   Walter A. Petersen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge, R. C. Cifelli, and L. D. Carey 8:45 AM 16B.3 High-resolution reflectivity and vertical velocity profiles in various convectively-generated precipitation systems   Bart Geerts, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and G. M. Heymsfield 9:00 AM 16B.4 Combined wind profiler/polarimetric radar studies of the vertical motion, thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of tropical thunderstorms   Peter T. May, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and C. Lucas, I. M. Reid, P. E. Johnston, A. R. Jameson, and T. D. Keenan 16B.5 Radiative Impacts of Island-Based Thunderstorms During MCTEX   Michael P. Jensen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and T. P. Ackerman and S. M. Sekelsky 9:15 AM 16B.6 Diurnal variation of cumulonimbus in typhoon inferred from negative brightness temperature difference validated by TRMM PR Data   Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Tanaka and T. Nakazawa 9:29 AM 16B.7 Tropical cyclone lightning distribution and its relationship to convection and intensity change   Edward Rodgers, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Wienman, H. Pierce, and W. Olson 9:44 AM 16B.8 An anthology of tropical convection: A survey of convective-dynamic synergies   Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Curry and R. Tomas
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Saturday Session 16C Historical tropical cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16B)
Organizer: Sam Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:30 AM 16C.1 The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for 1851–1885   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer 8:45 AM 16C.2 Re-analysis of The Gale of ‘78—Storm 9 of the 1878 Hurricane Season   David M. Roth, NOAA/NWS/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and H. D. Cobb 9:00 AM 16C.3 Reconstruction of the 1893 New York City hurricane from meteorological and archeological records—Implications for the future   Nicholas K. Coch, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY; and B. Jarvinen 9:15 AM 16C.4 The North Florida Hurricane of 29 September 1896, a Historical Case of Extreme Inland High Winds   Al Sandrik, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and C. Landsea and B. Jarvinen 9:30 AM 16C.5 The Atlantic HURISK model: Adaptation to other tropical cyclone basins   Charles J. Neumann, SAIC, Miami, FL 9:45 AM 16C.6 A CENTENNIAL REVIEW OF MAJOR LAND FALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND   David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA
	9:00 AM-9:43 AM, Saturday Session 16A Operational forecasting of tropical cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 16B and 16C)
Organizer: Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
16A.1 Review of the 1999 WESTPAC Tropical Cyclone Season   Wendell T. Stapler, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI 16A.2 JTWC Forecast Process   Edward M. Fukada, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and J. Staff 9:00 AM 16A.3 Forecasting difficulties during the 1999 hurricane season   Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL 9:13 AM 16A.4 Inland hurricane flooding in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina produced by Dennis '99 and Floyd '99: Operational considerations and decision making at NWS Wakefield, Virginia   Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and H. D. Cobb 9:28 AM 16A.5 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Deaths in North Carolina—Not Just a Coastal Event   Joel Cline, NOAA/NWS, Raleigh, NC
	10:30 AM-12:15 PM, Saturday Session 17A Societal impacts and stresses (Parallel with Sessions 17B and 17C)
Organizer: Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc., Washington, DC
10:30 AM 17A.1 Tropical cyclone hazard assessment in the Northwest Pacific   E. Rauch, Geoscience Research Group, Munich, Germany 17A.2 Reinsurance Tropical Cyclone Model—Goals, Achievements, Questions   Dörte Aller, Partner Reinsurance Company, Zürich, Switzerland; and R. Thomas 10:45 AM 17A.3 A stochastic, "basin-wide" model of Atlantic hurricanes   Michael Drayton, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom 11:00 AM 17A.4 Trends in the ratio of damage to deaths caused by United States landfalling hurricanes   Chris C. Robbins, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. Gross 11:15 AM 17A.5 Hurricane vulnerability and changes in vulnerability for coastal counties in the United States from 1961 to 1991   David Whitehead, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner 11:30 AM 17A.6 Costs and Benefits of Hurricane forecasting   Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 11:45 AM 17A.7 Business Case for the National Hurricane Center   Jerry D. Jarrell, Polk City, FL; and K. F. Williams
	10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Saturday Session 17B Convective Processes III (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17C)
Organizer: Brian Mapes, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 17B.1 A dynamic and thermodynamic foundation for modeling the moist atmosphere with classical thermodynamics and parameterized microphysics   Katsuyuki V. Ooyama, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 10:45 AM 17B.2 Potential vorticity in a moist atmosphere   Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Hausman, M. Garcia, K. V. Ooyama, and H. C. Kuo 11:00 AM 17B.3 **Generalized moist potential vorticity diagnosed from a nonhydrostatic, axisymmetric tropical cyclone simulation   Scott A. Hausman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 11:15 AM 17B.4 **The effects of a random population of isolated cumulonimbi on the distribution of potential vorticity in the lower troposphere   Stefan N. Tulich, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 11:30 AM 17B.5 Mean field theory for tropical precipitation   Adam H. Sobel, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton 11:45 AM 17B.6 Atmospheric convection as an irreversible heat engine   Nilton O. Rennó, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 12:00 PM 17B.7 Simulation of deep tropical clouds using a spectral microphysics cloud model HUCM   Alexander P. Khain, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. Pokrovsky and M. Pinsky 17B.8 Towards a similarity theory of moist convective updrafts   Olaf Stiller, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and G. C. Craig
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Saturday Session 17C SCSMEX (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17B)
Organizer: Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei Taiwan
10:30 AM 17C.1 Mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of the 1998 South China Sea Summer Monsoon   Wanxiu Ai, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan, Y. Wang, and J. Xu 10:45 AM 17C.2 Monsoon Characteristics Observed during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment   Paul A. Kucera, Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and R. C. Cifelli, T. M. Rickenbach, T. D. Keenan, and J. J. Wang 11:00 AM 17C.3 Onset and Evolution of the 1998 East Asian Summer Monsoon   Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski 11:15 AM 17C.4 The development of mesoscale convective systems during the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon   Jian-Jian Wang, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, JCET, Baltimore, MD; and T. M. Rickenbach, R. C. Cifelli, and P. A. Kucera 11:30 AM 17C.5 Interannual variability of the onset timing of the South China Sea summer monsoon and its possible mechanisms   Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. L. Chen and M. S. Chen 11:45 AM 17C.6 **Equatorial and subtropical waves and the onset of the South East Asian monsoon   Erica M. Loechl, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
	12:30 PM, Saturday Session Presentation of the Max Eaton Student Prize and End of Conference
	12:45 PM, Saturday Conference Ends
	1:00 PM, Saturday Session Tour of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center in west Miami-Dade County (Bus to depart from the Convention Center at 1:00 p.m., the tour will begin in Miami at 2:00 p.m. and will take approximately 1 hour, the bus will return to the convention center by 4:30 p.m.) Bus tickets may be purchased at the AMS Registration desk on-site. The final cost for the bus ticket will be between $6-$10, depending on how many people sign up for transportation. (Joint between the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere and the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology)

Browse the complete program of The Ft. Lauderdale Meeting