* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Program Chairpersons:
Patrick Harr, NPS

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 9 May 2010
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 10 May 2010
	7:30 AM-5:30 PM, Monday Conference Registration Continues through Friday MAY 14
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Monday Coffee Break
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 1A Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Data Issues & Datasets
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
8:30 AM 1A.1 An analysis of Atlantic hurricane seasons in the Pre-HURDAT era (1751-1850)   Recorded presentation Steven A. LaVoie, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and J. S. M. Coleman 8:45 AM 1A.2 A reanalysis of the 1944-1953 Atlantic hurricane seasons: The first decade of aircraft reconnaissance   Recorded presentation Andrew B. Hagen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 9:00 AM 1A.3 Reassessing Pre-Satellite Era Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Climatology Using 20th Century Reanalysis Data   Recorded presentation Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 9:15 AM 1A.4 How intense were they? - A sampling study on how recent Category 5 hurricanes would be depicted in the historical record   Recorded presentation Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Hagen and C. Carrasco 9:30 AM 1A.5 Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best track wind speeds   Recorded presentation Michael C. Kruk, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and K. R. Knapp
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 1B Monsoons: North American Monsoon
Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AM 1B.1 Analysis of an upper-level inverted trough during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment   Recorded presentation Zach Finch, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson 8:45 AM 1B.2 Simulations of a North American Monsoon Gulf Surge Event   Recorded presentation Andrew J. Newman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson 9:00 AM 1B.3 Land surface–precipitation interactions in the North American Monsoon: Sensitivity to land surface model initialization and coupling   Wendilyn J. Kaufeld, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt 9:15 AM 1B.4 Possible causes for an earlier demise of the North American Monsoon   Recorded presentation Paola Arias, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Fu and D. Ren 9:30 AM 1B.5 Multi-year observations of the complex relationship between sea breezes and rainfall along the western Sierra Madre during the North American Monsoon   Recorded presentation Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and V. M. Vincente, D. J. Gochis, and P. E. Johnston
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 1C Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
Moderator: John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
8:30 AM 1C.1 Wavelet analyses of turbulence in the hurricane boundary layer during landfalls   Recorded presentation Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang and F. Masters 8:45 AM 1C.2 An examination of stability changes allowing for increased gustiness over the Mid Atlantic from tropical systems   Recorded presentation John A. Billet, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. Titlow III 9:00 AM 1C.3 The landfall of Tropical Storm Ida: Frontal structures and boundary layer variability   Recorded presentation Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL ; and D. Phillips and T. Coleman 9:15 AM 1C.4 Tropical cyclone tornadoes: Synoptic scale influences and forecasting applications   Recorded presentation Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. A. Schultz 9:30 AM 1C.5 Calculating storm surge return periods for coastal locations on the Gulf of Mexico   Recorded presentation Hal Needham, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 1D Extratropical Transition: Physical processes
Chair: Elizabeth Ritchie, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
8:30 AM 1D.1 Impacts of extratropical transition of Northern Hemisphere available potential energy   Recorded presentation Eyad H. Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and R. McTaggart-Cowan 8:45 AM 1D.2 Large-scale flow reconfigurations over North America associated with recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 9:00 AM 1D.3 An observational study of the downstream Rossby wave response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Daniel Keyser, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and H. M. Archambault, J. M. Cordeira, and L. F. Bosart 9:15 AM 1D.4 Downstream development during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: observational evidence and Influence on storm evolution   Recorded presentation Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and L. Liu and H. Zhu 9:30 AM 1D.5 Extratropical transition in the Southwest Indian Ocean   Recorded presentation Kyle S. Griffin, SUNY, Albany, NY
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 2A Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Long-Term Variability
Chair: James P. Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
10:15 AM 2A.1 Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Scale over the western North Pacific and Related Environmental Control Mechanism   Ming Ying, Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China 10:30 AM 2A.2 Interannual sea-surface temperature oscillations and tropical cyclone activity over the North Pacific basin   Hye-Mi Kim, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry 10:45 AM 2A.3 On the Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Hurricanes   Recorded presentation James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger 11:00 AM 2A.4 Predictability of hurricane activity and impacts   Recorded presentation Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and I. Gonzales III and R. J. Hergert Jr. 11:15 AM 2A.5 Interdecadal variability of the intense typhoons in autumn   Chih-Hua Tsou, Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Chen and J. H. Chen 11:30 AM 2A.6 Impacts of Global Warming Events on Tropical Cyclones   Meng-Pai Hung, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin 11:45 AM 2A.7 A 4500-year record of hurricane frequency in the Gulf of Mexico archived in a North Florida sinkhole   Recorded presentation Philip Lane, MIT, Woods Hole, MA; and J. Donnelly, J. Woodruff, and A. Hawkes
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 2B Monsoons II
Chair: Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Hong Kong
10:15 AM 2B.1 The nature of summer-time precipitation over north-western Australia   Recorded presentation Gareth J. Berry, Monash University, Melbourne., Victoria, Australia; and M. Reeder and C. Jakob 10:30 AM 2B.2 Role of air-sea interaction for seasonal prediction of Australian monsoon rainfall   Recorded presentation Harry H. Hendon, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbounre, Vic, Australia; and E. P. Lim 10:45 AM 2B.3 Atmospheric Mixed Layers over the South China Sea during the Summer Monsoon   Recorded presentation Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Johnson 11:00 AM 2B.4 Land-Atmosphere Interaction in IPCC AR4 Climate Models   Taotao Qian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin and D. H. Bromwich 11:15 AM 2B.5 Observational evaluation of a convective Quasi-Equilibrium view of Monsoons   Recorded presentation Ji Nie, Harvard University,, Cambridge, MA; and W. R. Boos and Z. Kuang 11:30 AM 2B.6 Feedback mechanisms in monsoon transitions   Recorded presentation Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 11:45 AM 2B.7 Decadal change of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset   Recorded presentation Yoshiyuki Kajikawa, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and B. Wang
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 2C Hurricane Aerosol and Microphysics Program (HAMP)
Chair: William R. Cotton, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
10:15 AM 2C.1 The Hurricane Aerosol and Microphysics Program (HAMP): A HAMP Contribution   Recorded presentation Joe Golden, Golden Research & Consulting, Boulder, CO; and W. L. Woodley 10:30 AM 2C.2 Simulation of a landfalling hurricane using spectral bin microphysical model: effects of aerosols on hurricane intensity (the HAMP contribution)   Recorded presentation Alexander P. Khain, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and B. Lynn and J. Dudhia 10:45 AM 2C.3 Effects of aerosols on the Tropical Cyclone genesis as seen from simulations using spectral bin microphysics model (the HAMP contribution)   Recorded presentation Barry Lynn, Weather It Is, LTD, Efrat, Israel; and A. P. Khain 11:00 AM 2C.4 Spray microphysics and effects on surface fluxes as seen from simulations using a Lagrangian model with spectral bin microphysics   Recorded presentation Jacob Shpund, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel 11:15 AM 2C.5 Can aerosols explain hurricane prediction errors?   Michal Clavner, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and D. Rosenfeld 11:30 AM 2C.6 Mechanisms of lightning formation in deep maritime clouds and hurricanes (The HAMP contribution)   Recorded presentation Nir Benmoshe, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. Khain, A. Pokrovsky, and V. Phillips 11:45 AM 2C.7 Feasibility study of the modification of the intensity of tropical cyclones by seeding CCN with an aircraft : A HAMP Project   Recorded presentation Gustavo G. Carrio, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 2D Extratropical Transition: Forecast challenges
Chair: Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS Canada
10:15 AM 2D.1 Defining the Lifecycle of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones using Remotely-Sensed Imagery   Recorded presentation David E. Kofron, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. F. Pineros, E. A. Ritchie, and J. S. Tyo 10:30 AM 2D.2 Data denial experiments for extratropical transition   Recorded presentation Doris Anwender, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and C. Cardinali and S. C. Jones 10:45 AM 2D.3 Goal oriented adaptivity for tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Leonhard Scheck, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Baumann, S. C. Jones, V. Heuveline, and M. N. Juckes 11:00 AM 2D.4 The structure of singular vectors associated with extratropical transition of tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Simon T. Lang, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Karlsruhe, BW, Germany 11:15 AM 2D.5 Distillation of key storm evolution characteristics from ensemble forecasts through path clustering   Recorded presentation Jenni L. Evans, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Chiaromonte and P. K. Don 11:30 AM 2D.6 Investigation of predictability during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)   Recorded presentation Julia H. Keller, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany 11:45 AM 2D.7 Support vector machine techniques to predict tropical cyclone re-intensification following extratropical transition   Recorded presentation Steven R. Felker, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. S. Tyo, E. A. Ritchie, and I. Vaughn
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 3A Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Seasonal Forecasting
Chair: Kevin Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC Australia
1:15 PM 3A.1 Verification of 12 years of NOAA Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts   Recorded presentation Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. J. Pasch and G. D. Bell 1:30 PM 3A.2 Intraseasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean   Recorded presentation James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry 1:45 PM 3A.3 The non-stationary correlations between West African precipitation and Atlantic hurricane activity   Recorded presentation Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink and S. Kotthaus 2:00 PM 3A.4 Caribbean/Central American hurricane landfall probabilities   Recorded presentation Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 2:15 PM 3A.5 Environmental signals in property damage losses from hurricanes   Recorded presentation Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner 2:30 PM 3A.6 On the development of seasonal tropical cyclone prediction schemes for the Fiji region   Recorded presentation Savin S. Chand, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh and J. Chan 2:45 PM 3A.7 Statistical forecast model for tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region   Recorded presentation Angelika Werner, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 3B Tropical Cyclone Formation: African Easterly Waves
Chair: Sarah C. Jones, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe Germany
1:15 PM 3B.1 The tropical cyclogenesis "hole" in the Caribbean   Recorded presentation Kay L. Shelton, SUNY, Albany, NY 1:30 PM 3B.2 Genesis of Pre-hurricane Felix (2007) and the Role of the Wave Critical Layer   Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and M. T. Montgomery and T. J. Dunkerton 1:45 PM 3B.3 Isentropic descent beneath the Saharan Air Layer and its impact on tropical cyclogenesis   Recorded presentation Michael L. Diaz, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 2:00 PM 3B.4 African Easterly Wave Evolution Pre- and Post-tropical Cyclogenesis   Recorded presentation Bryce Paul Tyner, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 2:15 PM 3B.5 Dynamics of African easterly Wave storm track   Recorded presentation Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 2:30 PM 3B.6 Orographic and moisture effects on the evolution of the pre-Debby (2006) African easterly waves-mesoscale convective systems over Africa   Recorded presentation Guoqing Tang, N. C. A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin, J. Spinks, and W. Jones 2:45 PM 3B.7 Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves   Recorded presentation Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, J. Curry, and P. Webster
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 3C HFIP: High-Resolution Modeling I
Chair: James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:15 PM 3C.1 NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Project Plan and Status Report   Recorded presentation Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. L. Gall and F. Toepfer 1:30 PM 3C.2 The HFIP High-Resolution Hurricane Forecast test: overview and results of track and intensity forecast verification   Recorded presentation Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, S. Bao, B. Brown, L. Carson, T. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. Harrop, and J. Wolff 1:45 PM 3C.3 The HWRFx Modeling System: The High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test   Recorded presentation Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan, K. Yeh, R. F. Rogers, S. D. Aberson, F. D. Marks Jr., and T. Quirino 2:00 PM 3C.4 Does enhanced horizontal resolution improve hurricane intensity forecasts?   Recorded presentation Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang, J. Dudhia, R. Torn, S. Fredrick, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, S. Cavallo, and J. M. Done 2:15 PM 3C.5 Performance of the GFDL hurricane model during HFIP High-Resolution Hurricane Test Project   Recorded presentation Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas, M. A. Bender, and T. Marchok 2:30 PM 3C.6 COAMPS-TC Forecasts for HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Tests   Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, Y. Jin, and J. D. Doyle 2:45 PM 3C.7 The impact of adjusting physics in the university of wisconsin nonhydrostatic modeling system (UW-NMS) on tropical cyclone evolution   Recorded presentation Zachary Gruskin, University of Wisconsin , Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis, G. J. Tripoli, and T. Hashino
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 3D Remote Sensing:Passive microwave techniques
Moderator: Dr. John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
1:15 PM 3D.1 Improvement of passive microwave rainfall retrievals over the mountain area in Japan   Recorded presentation Shoichi Shige, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and H. Ashiwake, S. Kida, T. Kubota, T. Manabe, and K. Okamoto 1:30 PM 3D.2 The use of satellite-derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery for identifying Saharan Air Layers affecting tropical cyclones   Evan B. Forde, NOAA/AOML/CSND, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and J. Dunion 1:45 PM 3D.3 Measuring the structure of hurricanes with a microwave sounder   Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL and California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 2:00 PM 3D.4 The Megha-Tropiques mission   Recorded presentation Remy Roca, LMD IPSL Paris, Paris, France 2:15 PM 3D.5a Recent Statistical Analyses of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)   Recorded presentation John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander and C. Velden 3D.5 Updates to a Global Microwave Tropical Cyclone Archive   Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and M. Brewer, K. Hilburn, T. Meissner, and F. J. Wentz 2:30 PM 3D.6 Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speed Measurement Accuracy using the Airborne Hurricane Imaging Radiometer   Recorded presentation Ruba Amarin, Univ. Central Florida, Orlando, FL; and L. Jones, J. Johnson, C. Ruf, T. L. Miller, and S. S. Chen 2:45 PM 3D.7 Development, capabilities, and impact on wind analyses of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)   Recorded presentation Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. W. James, R. Amarin, R. Atlas, M. C. Bailey, P. G. Black, C. D. Buckley, S. S. Chen, S. El-Nimri, R. E. Hood, J. W. Johnson, W. L. Jones, C. S. Ruf, D. E. Simmons, E. Uhlhorn, and C. M. Inglish
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday Session Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 4A Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Modeling Studies
Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
3:30 PM 4A.1 TCs rainfall and TCs rainfall efficiency simulated in a high resolution climate model   Recorded presentation A.S. Daloz, CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Scientifiques, Toulouse, France; and F. Fabrice Chauvin and F. Frank Roux 3:45 PM 4A.2 Modeling the tropical cyclone-induced biological flux of carbon Into the thermocline   Recorded presentation Neil L. Zimmerman, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel 4:00 PM 4A.3 The effects of relative versus absolute SST on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single column model   Hamish A. Ramsay, NASA GISS/ Columbia University, New York, New York; and A. H. Sobel 4:15 PM 4A.4 Stratospheric cooling and tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 4:30 PM 4A.5 Simulation of tropical cyclone precursors and dynamically-downscaled simulations of tropical cyclones over an Australian domain   Recorded presentation Sally Lavender, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; and K. Walsh 4:45 PM 4A.6 Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium   Recorded presentation Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and K. A. Emanuel 5:00 PM 4A.7 Application of scale-selective data assimilation to seasonal simulation of tropical cyclones   Shiqiu Peng, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, China
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 4B Tropical Cyclone Formation: Physical Processes
Chair: Michael M. Bell, NPS, Monterey, CA
3:30 PM 4B.1 Analyses of Ring of maximum Wind, Ring of Maximum Pressure Gradient, Inflow angle and RMW in Tropical Storm   P. Kumar, MIT College of Engineering, Pune-411029, Maharashtra, India 3:45 PM 4B.2 Developing a parameter to detect imminent TC formation based on large-scale flow properties   Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and R. Dare 4:00 PM 4B.3 What are the characteristics of convective systems leading up to tropical cyclogenesis? A multisatellite investigation   Recorded presentation Jonathan Zawislak, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser 4:15 PM 4B.4 The creation of an equivalent potential temperature reservoir in the eye of a deepening tropical cyclone   Recorded presentation Gary M. Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Dolling 4:30 PM 4B.5 Microphysical properties of developing versus non-developing cloud clusters during tropical cyclogenesis   Recorded presentation Nathan D. Johnson, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. C. Conant and E. A. Ritchie 4:45 PM 4B.6 Pre-depression vortex development from “unspectacular” convection: A genesis case study of tropical storm Gert (2005)   Kevin J. Mallen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis, M. T. Montgomery, S. A. Braun, and P. D. Reasor 5:00 PM 4B.7 A spatial filter approach to determining the role of convection on the evolution of a mesoscale vortex   Recorded presentation Glenn Creighton, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 4C HFIP: High-Resolution Modeling II
Chair: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL
3:30 PM 4C.1 The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Testbed (TCMT) and its role in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)   Recorded presentation Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, T. Jensen, and C. Williams 3:45 PM 4C.2 An overview of the COAMPS-TC system applied during HFIP and T-PARC   Recorded presentation James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, J. Cummings, R. M. Hodur, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. Peng, K. D. Sashegyi, and J. Schmidt 4:00 PM 4C.3 Real-time Cloud-resolving Ensemble Analysis and Forecast Assimilating Airborne Doppler Radar Observations during the 2008/2009 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons   Recorded presentation Fuqing Zhang, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Weng, J. Gamache, and F. Marks 4:15 PM 4C.4 A high resolution version of operational HWRF: forecast ability and computational challenges presented by an operational environment   Recorded presentation Sam Trahan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, J. Oconnor, L. C. Sparling, and B. Lapenta 4:30 PM 4C.5 Hurricane forecasts during the 2009 season using a suite of mesoscale models   Recorded presentation Dr. Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. K. Biswas 4:45 PM 4C.6 High-resolution global ensemble hurricane forecasts using an experimental ensemble Kalman filter based analysis and prediction system   Recorded presentation Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Fiorino, T. Hamill, S. G. Benjamin, and P. Pegion 5:00 PM 4C.7 Dynamical 4D vortex initialization for GFDL's global high-resolution hurricane modeling system   Recorded presentation S.-J. Lin, NOAA, Pricenton, NJ
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 4D Remote Sensing: Applications
Moderator: Jeffrey Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA
3:30 PM 4D.1 Satellite-based intensity estimates of tropical cyclones: where do we go in the future?   Recorded presentation John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL 3:45 PM 4D.2 Tropical cyclone convection and intensity analysis using differenced infrared and water vapor imagery   Recorded presentation Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 4:00 PM 4D.3 Tropical Cyclone Center-Fixing in Microwave or Infrared Imagery   Recorded presentation Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 4:15 PM 4D.4 The CIMSS SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) tropical cyclone intensity algorithm   Recorded presentation Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden, J. Hawkins, T. Olander, and A. Wimmers 4:30 PM 4D.5 Potential impacts of a Dual Frequency Scatterometer on tropical cyclone and marine analysis and forecasting   Recorded presentation Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. Knabb 4:45 PM 4D.6 New Wind Measurement Capabilities With The High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Profiler   Recorded presentation Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Li and J. Carswell 5:00 PM 4D.7 Tropical cyclone dynamics revealed by MISR high-resolution, height-resolved, cloud-track winds and cloud top heights   Michael J. Garay, Raytheon Corporation, Pasadena, CA; and K. Mueller, D. Wu, C. Moroney, V. Jovanovic, and D. Diner
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday Session Ice Breaker Reception
	7:45 PM-9:00 PM, Monday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session Reflections on the Life and Science of Joanne Simpson
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 5A Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Climate Controls on Extreme Events
Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
8:00 AM 5A.1 The North Atlantic subtropical high and tropical cyclone tracks   Recorded presentation Angela J. Colbert, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden 8:15 AM 5A.2 Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks: observations and implications   Recorded presentation James P. Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. J. Camargo and M. Sitkowski 8:30 AM 5A.3 Climate control of global tropical storm days: El Niño and global warming   Recorded presentation Bin Wang, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Yang, Q. Ding, and F. Huang 8:45 AM 5A.4 Impact of climate variability and change on Hurricane extremes   Recorded presentation Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:00 AM 5A.5 Influence of Sea Surface Warming on Long-Term Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation   Recorded presentation Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Tao and Q. Ding 9:15 AM 5A.6 The effects of early season ENSO on peak season tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere   Recorded presentation Lance E. Steele, Weathernews America, Inc., Norman, OK 9:30 AM 5A.7 Analysis of National Hurricane Center track forecast errors based upon geographic location   Recorded presentation Hannah C. Barnes, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont and J. Kossin
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 5B Tropical Cyclone Formation: Numerical Models
Chair: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM 5B.1 Measuring environmental favorability for tropical cyclogenesis: Genesis parameters and point-downscaling   Recorded presentation Michael G. McGauley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan 8:15 AM 5B.2 Numerical studies on the role of mesoscale convective systems during the formation of Typhoon Ketsana (2003)   Xinyan Lu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and K. K. W. Cheung and Y. Duan 8:30 AM 5B.3 Ensemble simulation of cyclone Nargis by a Global Cloud-system-resolving Model -- modulation of cyclogenesis by the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Recorded presentation Hiroshi Taniguchi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and W. Yanase and M. Satoh 8:45 AM 5B.4 Observations and high-resolution modeling of tropical cyclone formation: Developing and non-developing cases over the west Pacific   Recorded presentation Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 9:00 AM 5B.5 Multiscale interactions in the formation of a Tropical Cyclone simulated in a global cloud-system-resolving model   Recorded presentation Hironori Fudeyasu, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang, M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, H. Miura, and W. Yanase 9:15 AM 5B.6 Evolution of multi-scale vortex in the development of Hurricane Dolly (2008)   Recorded presentation Juan Fang, Nanjing University, China, Nanjing, China; and F. Zhang 9:30 AM 5B.7a Application of synthetic GOES imagery to the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project   Recorded presentation Yi Jin, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and L. Grasso 5B.7 Evaluation of tropical cyclogenesis in operational global models and their ensembles   Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. J. Pasch and H. L. Pan
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 5C Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Rapid Intensification
Moderator: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 5C.1 Axisymmetric and asymmetric processes of tropical cyclone-like vortex during the rapid intensification phase   Recorded presentation Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 8:15 AM 5C.2 Inner-core vacillation cycles during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina   Recorded presentation Chi Mai Nguyen, Monash University, Melbourne, VICTORIA, Australia; and M. J. Reeder, N. E. Davidson, R. K. Smith, and M. T. Montgomery 8:30 AM 5C.3 Convective scale evolution during rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone   Recorded presentation John Molinari, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro 8:45 AM 5C.4 Vertical velocity and microphysical distributions related to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Dennis (2005)   Recorded presentation Eric C. Meyers, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, and S. W. Nesbitt 9:00 AM 5C.5 Modulation of eyewall convection by eye-eyewall mesovortices during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo (1997)   Recorded presentation Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and P. D. Reasor 9:15 AM 5C.6 Rapid deepening of tropical cyclones in the northeastern Tropical Pacific: The relationship with ocean eddies   Recorded presentation Fernando Oropeza, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and G. B. Raga 9:30 AM 5C.7 Evaluation of GFDL wind field structure during rapid intensification TC cases using H*Wind   Recorded presentation Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and B. Annane and R. F. Rogers
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 5D African Climate and Weather I
Chair: Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
8:00 AM 5D.1 Analysis of easterly waves in the YOTC period   Recorded presentation Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. A. Janiga 8:15 AM 5D.2 Simulations of the propagation and diurnal cycle of organized convection in Africa   Recorded presentation A. G. Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and S. B. Trier 5D.3 The interannual variability of pre-storm environments of intense convective systems in West Africa: Application to future climate scenarios   Karen I. Mohr, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Nicholls 8:30 AM 5D.4 Regional analysis of West African monsoonal convective systems   Recorded presentation Nick Guy, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge and B. Dolan 8:45 AM 5D.3a The Role of Guinea Highlands Convection on Tropical Cyclogenesis   Recorded presentation Michael J. Ventrice, SUNY, Albany, NY 9:00 AM 5D.5 Role of cross-equatorial SST gradients and orography in African easterly wave genesis   Sara C. Vieira, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 9:15 AM 5D.6 Easterly wave structural evolution over West Africa and the East Atlantic   Recorded presentation Matthew A. Janiga, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY 9:30 AM 5D.7 Controls on the interannual variability of rainfall over western equatorial Africa   Recorded presentation Amin K. Dezfuli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 6A Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Climate Change Modeling
Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
10:15 AM 6A.1 Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50km resolution GCM   Recorded presentation Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi 10:30 AM 6A.2 Effects of tropical cyclones on ocean heat transport as simulated by a high resolution coupled general circulation model   Recorded presentation Enrico Scoccimarro, INGV-CMCC, Bologna, Italy; and S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, A. Sanna, P. Oddo, and A. Navarra 10:45 AM 6A.3 Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to a Global Warming Scenario in the IPCC AR4 CGCMs   Recorded presentation Jinhua Yu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Techonology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang and K. P. Hamilton 11:00 AM 6A.4 North American regional climate simulations: Dynamical downscaling experiments to predict hurricane activity under global warming   Recorded presentation Asuka Suzuki-Parker, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and G. Holland, J. Done, and C. Bruyere 11:15 AM 6A.5 Lessons learned from North American Regional Climate Model (NRCM) Experiments   Recorded presentation Cindy Bruyere, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland, A. Suzuki-Parker, and J. Done 11:30 AM 6A.6 Tropical Cyclogenesis Potential in Climate Change: An Application of Artificial Neural Networks   Recorded presentation Zheng Ki Yip, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. K. Yau 11:45 AM 6A.7 Projected changes in cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian region   Recorded presentation Craig Arthur, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 6B Tropical Cyclone Formation: Prediction
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 6B.1 Climatology of Dvorak classifications to support operational probabilistic tropical cyclogenesis forecasts   Recorded presentation Joshua Cossuth, Florida State University/COAPS, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Knabb and D. P. Brown 10:30 AM 6B.2 Development and applications of a new Genesis Potential Index   Recorded presentation Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, G. A. Vecchi, and M. Zhao 10:45 AM 6B.3 Operational forecast on Asian Monsoon region cyclone genesis and tracks   Recorded presentation Jun Jian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster 11:00 AM 6B.4 A global TC development pathway climatology   Recorded presentation R. McTaggart-Cowan, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and T. J. Galarneau Jr., L. F. Bosart, R. W. Moore, and O. Martius 11:15 AM 6B.5 Late season tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico   Recorded presentation Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. 11:30 AM 6B.6 Tropical cyclogenesis associated with extratropical precursors in the North Atlantic   Recorded presentation Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO 11:45 AM 6B.7 Late season tropical cyclone formation over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean   Recorded presentation Rachel G. Mauk, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 6C Tropical Cyclone Intensity: MPI and Environmental Influences
Moderator: John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 6C.1 Energy Production, Frictional Dissipation, and Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones   Recorded presentation Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Xu 10:30 AM 6C.2 Critical alignment number and maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone   Irakli G. Shekrildaze, Georgian Technical University, Tbilisi, Georgia 10:45 AM 6C.3 Dynamical constraints on the intensity and size of tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Christoph Schmidt, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and M. T. Montgomery 11:00 AM 6C.4 Quantifying environmental control on tropical cyclone intensity change   Recorded presentation Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, B. Fu, and T. Li 11:15 AM 6C.5 A new paradigm for intensity change of tropical cyclones in vertical wind shear   Recorded presentation Michael Riemer, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and M. E. Nicholls 11:30 AM 6C.6 The evolution of Humberto in a sheared environment   Recorded presentation Klaus Dolling, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes 11:45 AM 6C.7 Arc clouds in the tropical cyclone environment: Implications for TC intensity change   Recorded presentation Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS-NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. D. Eastin, D. S. Nolan, J. Hawkins, and C. Velden
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 6D African Climate and Weather II
Organizer: Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX Chair: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 6D.1 Assessment of recent rainfall anomalies in West Africa   Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD 10:30 AM 6D.2 Coastal rainfall onset in the West African monsoon   Recorded presentation Hanh Nguyen, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft and C. Zhang 10:45 AM 6D.3 Some dynamical aspects of the precipitation regime over western equatorial Africa   Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. Jackson 11:00 AM 6D.4 Variability of Atmospheric Moisture during the Boreal Spring in West Africa   Recorded presentation Roberto J. Mera, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and F. H. M. Semazzi and A. G. Laing 11:15 AM 6D.5 Anomalous northern hemispheric summer mid-tropospheric circulation over West Africa   Recorded presentation Isaac K. Tetteh, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and F. H. M. Semazzi 11:30 AM 6D.6 Dynamics of the West African westerly jet and its association with Sahel precipitation   Recorded presentation Bing Pu, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 11:45 AM 6D.7 Theory and observations of West African monsoon onset   Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 7A Industry Related Hurricane Research and Applications
Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO
1:15 PM 7A.1 Onshore Natural Gas and Agriculture Producer Sensitivity to Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Risk   Recorded presentation Joshua Darr, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Davis and M. Russo 1:30 PM 7A.2 Genesis Potential Index for Tropical Cyclones in the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) Experiments   Recorded presentation Cindy Bruyere, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland, J. Done, and A. Suzuki-Parker 1:45 PM 7A.3 A revised model for the radial profiles of hurricane winds   Recorded presentation Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Fritz and J. Belanger 2:00 PM 7A.4 The effect of warmer SST on a stochastic Atlantic hurricane model   Recorded presentation Jessica K. Turner, RMS, London, United Kingdom; and K. Coughlin, T. Laepple, S. Jewson, E. Bellone, and D. Rowlands 2:15 PM 7A.5 Use of dynamical weather and climate models for tropical cyclone risk assessment   Recorded presentation James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO 2:30 PM 7A.6 Interpretation of decadal tropical cyclone forecasts for decision-support: application to insurance and disaster risk reduction along the US Gulf Coast and the Caribbean   Recorded presentation Nicola Ann Ranger, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom; and L. Smith, F. Niehoerster, R. Muir-Wood, and H. Kunreuther 2:45 PM 7A.7 A New Paradigm Shift from Weather to Quantitative Impact Forecasts   Recorded presentation Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and G. Geernaert and R. Luettich
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 7B Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Chair: Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic Australia
1:15 PM 7B.1 Vertical distribution of radar reflectivity in intense Atlantic tropical cyclone eyewalls observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar   Recorded presentation Deanna A. Hence, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. 1:30 PM 7B.2 Simulated impacts of environmental parameters on tropical cyclone size and structure change   Recorded presentation Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. R. Felker and D. R. Stovern 1:45 PM 7B.3 Idealized investigation of mechanisms linking tropical cyclone eye wall vorticity structure to interactions of the inflow and outflow with the environment   Recorded presentation Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 2:00 PM 7B.4 The vertical structure of tangential winds in simulated tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Daniel P. Stern, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 2:15 PM 7B.5 Impact of vortex structure on tropical cyclone response to diabatic heating   Recorded presentation Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. K. Taft, J. L. Vigh, and W. H. Schubert 2:30 PM 7B.6 Analysis of Five Types of Dropwindsonde Dynamic and Thermodynamic Profiles in Tropical Cyclones   Recorded presentation Tom J. Philp, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson 2:45 PM 7B.7 Eye formation by dynamical adjustment of the tropical cyclone's inner core   Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 7C Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Theory
Chair: Peter Black, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:15 PM 7C.1 Analysis of axisymmetric hurricanes in statistical equilibrium   Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 1:30 PM 7C.2 Entropy ventilation in an axisymmetric tropical cyclone model   Recorded presentation Brian H. Tang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel 1:45 PM 7C.3 Tropical-cyclone intensification: Part I: The role of the boundary layer   Recorded presentation Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian's University, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery 2:00 PM 7C.4 Tropical cyclone intensification: Part II: The role of air-sea moisture fluxes   Recorded presentation Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School and NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith 2:15 PM 7C.5 Tropical cyclone intensification: Sensitivity to the boundary-layer parameterization in a numerical model   Recorded presentation Gerald L. Thomsen, Ludwig Maximilian's University, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith 2:30 PM 7C.6 The concepts of Rossby length and Rossby depth and their application to hurricane dynamics   Recorded presentation Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and B. D. McNoldy 2:45 PM 7C.7 Non-linear response of hurricane vortices to heating perturbations in an observational regime   Recorded presentation Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. D. Reasor
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 7D African Climate and Weather III
Chair: Christopher Thorncroft, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY
7D.1 Numerical simulation of the 8 September 2006 MCS during AMMA: evaluation of the dynamics and microphysics using synthetic observations   Guillaume Penide, LAMP Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique, Aubière, France; and V. Giraud, D. Bouniol, A. Protat, C. Duroure, P. Dubuisson, and S. Cautenet 1:15 PM 7D.1a Tropical Storm Debby: Genesis dynamics and the relevance of the Saharan air layer   Recorded presentation Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun 1:30 PM 7D.2 Multi-scale analysis of the 25-27 July 2006 convective period over Niamey: Doppler radar observations and simulations   Recorded presentation Christelle Barthe, Laboratoire de l'Atmophere et des Cyclones (CNRS, Universite de la Reunion, Meteo-France), Saint Denis Cedex 9, Reunion; and N. Asencio, J. P. Lafore, M. Chong, B. Campistron, and F. Cazenave 1:45 PM 7D.3 The Relationship Between the Air-Sea Interactions and Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Jamese D. Sims, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Jenkins and R. Grumbine 2:00 PM 7D.4 Microphysical characterisation of west African MCS anvils   Dominique Bouniol, CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. Delanoë, C. Duroure, A. Protat, V. Giraud, and G. Penide 2:15 PM 7D.5 Convection in an African Easterly Wave over West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic: A model case study of Helene (2006)   Recorded presentation Juliane Schwendike, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany 2:30 PM 7D.6 Hurricane Helene (2006) and the Saharan air layer   Recorded presentation Sarah C. Jones, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and J. Schwendike, H. Vogel, and B. Vogel 2:45 PM 7D.7 Prediction of dry-season precipitation in tropical West Africa and its relation to forcing from the extratropics   Recorded presentation Andreas H. Fink, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and P. Knippertz
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 7 Poster Session 1 Posters: TCs and Climate, Monsoons, HFIP, TC Formation, Extratropical Transition, Industry Applications, TC Intensity, African Climate and Weather
Organizer: Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
P1.33 Water vapor eye temperatures of intense tropical cyclones   Roger Weldon, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Schwartz   P1.1 Hurricane ensemble prediction using NCEP operational HWRF system and GEFS perturbations   Zhan Zhang, NOAA/NCEP/EMC- SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Q. Liu, W. M. Lapenta, and S. J. Lord   P1.2 The risk of strong hurricane winds to Florida cities   Jill Christine Malmstadt, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger   P1.3 Helical features of tropical cyclogenesis   Galina V. Levina, Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia; and M. T. Montgomery   P1.4 Toward a Global Climatology of Tropical Cloud Clusters   Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC; and C. N. Helms and K. R. Knapp   P1.5 Initial condition sensitivity and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis   James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, C. A. Reynolds, and J. R. Moskaitis   P1.6 Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global climate model   Hiroyuki Murakami, AESTO/MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and B. Wang and A. Kitoh   P1.7 Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall Along the South China Coast   Samson K.S. Chiu, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan, W. L. Ginn, and S. M. Lee   P1.8 Detecting Tropical Cyclone Formation from Satellite Infrared Imagery   Miguel Pineros, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. Ritchie and J. S. Tyo   P1.9 Impact of resolution and downscaling technique in simulating Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with GEM-Climate   Louis-Philippe Caron, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and C. G. Jones and K. Winger   P1.10 Analyses of tropical cyclone characteristics and its relation to environmental conditions based on IPRC-regional climate model   Yi Lu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang   P1.11 Feasibility Study of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Area using RegCM3   Andie Y. M. Au-Yeung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan   P1.12 Simulation of the interannual variation of seasonal northwest Pacific typhoon activity with a regional climate model   Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. R. Knutson, S. T. Garner, S. Chang, J. J. Sirutis, Y. C. Feng, and C. Chou P1.13 Dynamic hurricane season prediction experiment with the NCEP T382 CFS CGCM   Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. N. Long   P1.14 Pattern classification of typhoon tracks and related large-scale circulations   Hyeong-Seog Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and C. H. Ho, J. H. Kim, and P. S. Chu   P1.15 Targeted observation for tropical cyclone during T-PARC 2008   Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and P. Harr, C. C. Wu, and M. Weissmann   P1.16 Hurricane reanalysis using Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data   Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC   P1.17 Tropical cyclones and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation   Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel   P1.18 The relationship between precipitation in the tropics and tropical cyclone frequency   Allison A. Wing, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel   P1.19 The Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project   Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and S. Lavender P1.20 Impacts of operational vortex initializations on 2009 hurricane forecast with the HWRFx model   Kao-San Yeh, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, T. Quirino, V. Tallapragada, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and R. Atlas   P1.21 A Global Unified View of ENSO Modulation of Tropical Cyclones   Meng-Pai Hung, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin   P1.22 Potential improvements of tropical storm forecasts with remote sensing of ocean surface air pressure   Bing Lin, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and S. Harrah, R. Lawrence, Q. Min, and Y. Hu   P1.22a The potential for an abrupt failure of the West African monsoon as climate warms   Naresh Neupane, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook   P1.23 Evaluation of experimental model forecasts from HFIP 2009 Demonstration   Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Jensen, and L. Nance   P1.24 High-resolution satellite data assimilation and its role in tropical cyclone prediction   William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and T. Hashino P1.25 Feasibility study of the mitigation of the intensity of tropical cyclones by CCN seeding in the outer rainband region: A HAMP project   Steve Herbener, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton   P1.26 Overforecasts of tropical cyclogenesis in the FIM global model   Mike Fiorino, OAR, Boulder, CO; and J. -. W. Bao   P1.27 The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test: Beyond the traditional verification metrics   Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. K. Wolff, and H. Yuan P1.28 The HWRFx Modeling System: Coupling to a One-Dimensional Ocean Model with Multiple Vertical Turbulence Closures   George R. Halliwell Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, and T. Quirino   P1.29 The effect of major volcanic eruptions on tropical cyclone activity   Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and V. Bennington   P1.30 Climatological-based tropical cyclone landfall probabilities and average time to landfall   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL   P1.31 Impact of resolution on the statistical characteristics and regional structures of brightness temperatures calculated from simulated microphysics in hurricanes   Tempei Hashino, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and W. E. Lewis P1.32 Hurricane Hanna (2008) Track Deflection and Rapid Intensity Change: An Observational and Numerical Study   Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. Black, E. Hendricks, R. L. Elsberry, S. E. Zick, J. E. Nachamkin, and C. Sampson P1.34 Using the HFIP high-resolution hurricane test dataset to diagnose interconnected track and intensity errors in hurricane forecasts   Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, E. Szoke, L. Nance, and L. R. Bernardet   P1.35 Evaluating the impacts of extratropical transitioning on typhoon losses via synoptic case studies   Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and M. Desflots   P1.37 Statistical prediction of TC frequency and seasonality within the core region of the inter american seas warm pool   Arthur V. Douglas, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and P. J. Englehart   P1.38 Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting/forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets   Tim LaRow, COAPS, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL   P1.40 Statistical-dynamical intraseasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific   Tom Murphree, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. Meyer, B. Mundhenk, and C. Raynak   P1.41 Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes   Robert E. Hodges, Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner   P1.42 The thermodynamic evolution of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones   Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Hart P1.43 A experimental proposal to reduce the devastation caused by hurricanes to humans and the environment   Brian P. Sandler, Bsandler Co., West Bloomfield, MI   P1.44 Consistent tropical cyclone wind and wave forecasts for the U. S. Navy   Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Wittmann and H. L. Tolman   P1.45 Diagnosis of tropical cyclone activity through gravity wave energy density in the South West Indian Ocean   Chouaïbou Ibrahim, LACy(Laboratoire de l'atmosphere et des cyclones), Saint Denis, Reunion   P1.46 Zonal asymmetries in the African Easterly Jet   Amin K. Dezfuli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson   P1.47 Potential vorticity diagnostics associated with the Tropical Easterly Jet over Africa and links to rainfall variability   Travis A. Smith, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson   P1.48 A newly-documented low-level coastal jet along the Benguela Coast of Southern Africa   Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL P1.49 Seasonal evolution of diabatic heating and associated meridional circulation over the West African Monsoon region   Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Ling, J. Lawrence, and S. M. Hagos   P1.50 Simulated rainfall diurnal cycle of African Monsoon: a sensitivity study to model resolution and sea surface temperature forcing   Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council (IBIMET-CNR), Roma, Italy; and F. Guarnieri and S. Melani   P1.51 2009 tropical cyclone predictions and societal challenges in the tropical islands of the western North Pacific Ocean   Charles 'Chip' Guard, NOAA/NWSFO Guam, Barrigada, Guam   P1.52 Formation of tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean associated with two types of tropical intraseasonal oscillation modes   Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang   P1.53 An objective method to predict near real time rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using satellite passive microwave observations   Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Rozoff, A. Wimmers, M. Sitkowski, M. E. Kieper, J. Kossin, J. Hawkins, and J. Knaff   P1.54 Recent Statistical Analyses of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Poster   John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander and C. Velden   P1.55 Microphysics of deep tropical convective clouds observed over India Part 2 : simulations with a high resolution spectral bin microphysics model (The HAMP contribution)   Alexander P. Khain, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and D. Rosenfeld, A. Pokrovsky, N. Benmoshe, J. R. Kulkarni, and R. S. Maheshkumar   P1.56 An analysis of tropical cyclone formations in the South China Sea during the late season   Cheng-Shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. L. Lin   P1.57 ADT v8.1: tropical cyclone intensity beyond Dvorak   Michael Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD   P1.58 A multi-scale analysis of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Paloma (2008)   John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang, S. Aberson, M. L. Black, E. Uhlhorn, J. Dunion, A. Aksoy, and R. Rogers   P1.59 Sensitivity of The South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to The Cloud Microphysics and Associated Radiative Effects   Yi-Chi Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung, J. L. Li, and D. E. Waliser   P1.60 Microphysics of deep tropical convective clouds over India, part-I: Aircraft observations   J.R. Kulkarni, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, Pune, India; and E. Freud, M. Konwar, R. S. Maheshkumar, and D. Rosenfeld   P1.61 Origin and a formation mechanism of pre-TC African easterly wave-mesoscale convective systems in eastern Africa   Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and G. Tang, J. Spinks, and W. Jones   P1.62 Development of a tropical cyclone microphysical model   Barry Lynn, Weather It Is, LTD, Efrat, Israel; and J. -. W. Bao, I. Ginis, A. P. Khain, and S. G. Gopalakrishnan   P1.63 HWRF performance diagnostics from the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season   Brian D. McNoldy, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, V. Tallapragada, and T. Marchok   P1.64 The Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08) near real-time and science studies satellite product suite   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, T. F. Lee, R. L. Bankert, C. Velden, D. C. Herndon, A. Wimmers, T. Olander, F. J. Turk, J. E. Kent, and S. D. Miller   P1.65 Implications of Wintertime Blocking Episodes over Ural-Siberia for the Regional Climate in Southeast Asia   Ho Nam Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou   P1.66 Transport of dust particles from the Bodele region to the monsoon layer. Case study of the 9-14 june 2006 period   Suzanne Crumeyrolle, LaMP : Laboratoire de Meteorologie Physique, Aubière, France; and P. Tulet, L. Garcia-Carreras, L. Gomes, C. Flamant, A. Schwarzenboeck, A. Matsuki, D. J. Parker, H. Venzac, and P. Formenti   P1.67 Evaluation of budget analyses during MISMO   Masaki Katsumata, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and P. E. Ciesielski and R. H. Johnson   P1.68 The role of trade wind surges in tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific   Lung-Yao Chang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. K. W. Cheung and C. S. Lee   P1.69 Gravity wave parameters over the west African area derived from the AMMA campaign (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses)   Fabrice Chane Ming, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones, St Denis, La Réunion, France; and P. Kafando and M. Petitdidier   P1.71 A first study of the lightning activity related to tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean   Christelle Barthe, Laboratoire de l'Atmophere et des Cyclones (CNRS, Universite de la Reunion, Meteo-France), Saint Denis Cedex 9, Reunion; and S. Coquillat   P1.72 Initiation of deep convection and surface properties over West Africa: a satellite based study   Amanda Gounou, CNRM Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and F. Couvreux, F. Guichard, C. Taylor, R. Ellis, and P. Harris   P1.73 A possible mechanism regulating nocturnal stratocumulus decks in West Africa   Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink   P1.74 The impact of latent cooling processes on tropical cyclogenesis and intensity fluctuations   Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and T. Hasselbeck   P1.75 Using potential vorticity tendency equations for diagnosing atmospheric dynamics in numerical models   Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and J. D. Kepert and J. Sippel   P1.76 Wave energy accumulation and tropical cyclone genesis   James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland, S. N. Tulich, C. Bruyere, and A. Suzuki-Parker   P1.77 Orographic influence on the cyclogenesis of tropical storm Debby (2006)   John Paul Roop, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and G. Tang   P1.78 Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating   William R. Boos, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and Z. Kuang P1.80 PAPER WITHDRAWN     P1.81 2009 NSF-PREDICT Dry Run: what have we learned?   Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and M. T. Montgomery   P1.82 Impact of assimilation of LASE and dropwindsonde data sets during NAMMA field campaign   Mrinal K. Biswas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti   P1.83 Relationship of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones to Dynamical/Thermodynamical Parameters   Anu Simon, Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti, R. Ross, A. Martin, and D. Zelinsky   P1.84 Simulation of a convective rainfall event and associated water budget over West Africa : an intercomparison of mesoscale models   Francoise Guichard, CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. -. P. Lafore, N. Asencio, C. Peugeot, O. Bock, J. -. L. Redelsperger, X. Cui, M. Garvert, B. L. Lamptey, E. Orlandi, J. Sander, F. Fierli, M. A. Gaertner, S. C. Jones, A. Morse, A. Boone, M. Nuret, G. Balsamo, B. Decharme, P. de Rosnay, P. Harris, and J. -. C. Berges   P1.85 Numerical modeling of boundary layer roll vortices in high wind conditions   Zhitao Yu, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and A. Khain   P1.86 Orographic Effects On Tropical Cyclogenesis Over Eastern Pacific Ocean   Van Nguyen, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and G. Tang   P1.87 Tropical and extra-tropical forecast sensitivity to sub-tropical observational enhancement   Lee A. Byerle, AWS, Tucson, 85708; and J. Paegle, J. E. Nogues-Paegle, A. C. Saulo, and J. J. Ruiz   P1.88 ITCZ Cloud Clusters in Association with African Easterly Waves during Summer Seasons of El Nino and La Nina Years   Dr. Mostafa El - Rafy, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt   P1.89 Convective Characteristics of Hurricane Eyewalls and Rainbands from 11 years of TRMM Data   Ellen Ramirez, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and H. Jiang and E. Zipser   P1.90 Dynamical system analysis of a low order tropical cyclone model   Daria Schönemann, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and T. Frisius   P1.91 Characteristics of convection investigated during NAMMA (2006) using a dual-frequency airborne precipitation radar   Jonathan Zawislak, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser and S. Tanelli   P1.92 On the Tropical Cyclone Formation from Tropical Waves   Chanh Q. Kieu, Hanoi College of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam; and F. Zhang, J. S. Gall, and W. Frank   P1.93 WISHE and tropical cyclone intensification   George Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Emanuel, F. Zhang, J. Fang, and B. H. Tang   P1.94 GeoSTAR – a new hurricane observatory   Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL and California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and T. Gaier, A. Tanner, and P. Kangaslahti   P1.95 An analysis of tropical variability during the 2002-2003 cold season   Kyle MacRitchie, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy   P1.96 Seasonal and intraseasonal modulations of environmental field for tropical cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal   Wataru Yanase, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; and H. Taniguchi and M. Satoh   P1.97 Life after QuikSCAT-Tropical cyclone analysis using microwave imagery and data   Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam   P1.98 The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) objective on the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: observed cases, their structure and downstream impacts   Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. C. Jones, D. Anwender, M. M. Bell, C. A. Davis, R. L. Elsberry, J. L. Evans, C. M. Grams, S. T. Lang, J. H. Keller, N. Kitabatake, W. C. Lee, R. McTaggart-Cowan, E. R. Sanabia, C. S. Velden, M. Weissmann, and M. Wirth   P1.99 Synoptic variability of the monsoon flux over West Africa prior to the onset   Fleur Couvreux, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and F. Guichard, O. Bock, B. Campistron, J. P. Lafore, and J. -. L. Redelsperger   P1.100 Documentation of cloud characteristics inferred from ground and satellite measurements within west Africa   Dominique Bouniol, CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and F. Couvreux, P. H. Kamsu-Tamo, M. Leplay, F. Guichard, and E. J. O'Connor   P1.101 Mineral dust transport over West Africa in 2006   Juliane Schwendike, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and D. Bou Karam, S. Crumeyrolle, C. Flamant, S. C. Jones, M. Schmidberger, F. Solmon, T. Stanelle, H. Vogel, and B. Vogel   P1.102 Data impact experiments using IASI observations during the life cycle of Hurricanes Gustav, Hanna and Ike (2008)   Doris Anwender, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and N. Fourrié, F. Rabier, and P. Arbogast   P1.103 Interactions of Upper Level Troughs and African Easterly Waves   Bryce Paul Tyner, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC   P1.104 Precipitation processes in southwest India during the summer monsoon: the Orographic Precipitation and Evolution of Landscapes-Western Ghats project (OPEL-WG)   Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. M. Anders, W. J. Kaufeld, and J. Colberg   P1.105 Intraseasonal variability of African easterly wave activity   Jeffrey M. Ceratto, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft   P1.106 Easterly Waves in the Intra-Americas Sea Region   Yolande Serra, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and G. Kiladis and K. I. Hodges   P1.107 Tropical transition of tropical cyclones Gabrielle and Humberto during the 2007 North Atlantic season   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. Bosart   P1.108 What Controls the Geographic Distribution of Evapotranspiration in the Amazon River Basin?   Taotao Qian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and D. H. Bromwich and J. L. Lin   P1.109 Maintenance of Long-lived African Easterly Waves   David Church, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer   P1.110 Modeling studies of African Easterly Waves in relation to Tropical Cyclogenesis along the West African Coast   Forbes Tompkins, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao and G. Jenkins   P1.112 Utilization of a multi-phase particle model to develop self-consistent bulk microphysical parameterizations for hurricane models   Jon Reisner, LANL, Los Alamos, NM P1.113 Downscaling the North America Monsoon using CWRF: Model resolution and the depiction of precipitation climate and variability   Nicole J. Schiffer, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt and X. Z. Liang   P1.114 A study of the influence of the Saharan Air Layer on tropical cyclones using TOMS data   E.M. Hicks, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Pointe à Pitre, Guadeloupe; and C. A. Pontikis   P1.115 Simple kinematic models of tropical cyclones in vertical shear   Michael Riemer, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery   P1.116 Impact of the MJO on the west African monsoon, African easterly waves, and Atlantic tropical cyclones   Ghassan J. Alaka, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney   P1.117 Mechanisms Linking Easterly Waves and the North American Monsoon System   Simona Seastrand, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and Y. Serra   P1.118 Evaluation of a Reduced Model for Investigating Hurricane Formation from Turbulence   David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA   P1.119 Contrasts between organized convection during the peak and tail ends of the West African monsoon   Matthew A. Janiga, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft, B. Mapes, and E. R. Williams   P1.120 A logistic regression model for WNP tropical cyclone formation forecast   Bing Fu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and J. Hansen   P1.123 The Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation over Tropical North Africa   Michael J. Ventrice, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft and P. Roundy   P1.124 Onset of genesis of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) from the vertical alignment of a westward-tilted vortex   Wallace Hogsett, University of Maryland, College Park, MD   P1.125 Simulation of Tropical Storm Fay intensity change over land due to soil moisture and land moisture over Lake Okeechobee   Travis Washington, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL   P1.126 Diagnosis and Verification of Real-Time COAMPS-TC Forecasts   Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. G. Black, J. D. Doyle, J. R. Moskaitis, R. M. Hodur, Y. Jin, and M. S. Peng   P1.127 Three-dimensional structure of the Saharan Air Layer   Aaron M. Adams, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL   P1.128 The effects of latent heating on the extratropical transition of Typhoon Sinlaku   Michael Kevin Hernandez, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans   P1.129 The relationship between tropical cyclone intensity changes and its precipitation features   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Schroeder   P1.130 Tropical cyclone genesis from easterly waves in a regional climate model   Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis and A. Suzuki-Parker   P1.131 Is rapid intensification internally or externally controlled?   Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng   P1.132 Comparison of the role of subsurface ocean in the east and central Pacific warmings   Lina I. Ceballos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and E. Di Lorenzo   P1.133 Convective scale simulation of the 2006 North American Monsoon season   Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and R. Rotunno and M. C. Barth   P1.134 The climatological significance of extratropical transitioning on typhoon precipitation over japan   Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and J. Butke   P1.135 A modeling study of tropical cyclone suppression during the AEROSE 2009: Case study of Ana   Miliaritiana L. Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and S. Chiao, E. Joseph, N. R. Nalli, A. E. Reynolds, and D. V. Morris P1.136 Impact of different cumulus parameterizations on the numerical simulation of rain over southern China   P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China   P1.137 The Impact of Airborne Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements on Numerical Simulations of Tropical cyclones   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Zhang and D. Emmitt   P1.138 Simulations of Top-Down and Bottom-Up tropical cyclogenesis   Tim Li, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and X. Ge and M. S. Peng
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 7 Session Formal Poster Viewing
	8:00 PM-9:30 PM, Tuesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session Evening Session Presentation and Panel Discussion on Industry Applications. Sponsored by Willis Re
8:00 PM .1 The future of modeling hurricane catastrophes   Peter Dailey, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and J. Guin 8:15 PM .2 Reducing the impact of hurricane variability and change on the Offshore Energy Community in the Gulf of Mexico   Cort Cooper, Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, San Ramon, CA; and G. J. Holland, J. M. Done, A. Suzuki, and C. Bruyere 8:30 PM .3 The Willis Hurricane Index   Brian F. Owens, Willis Limited, London, United Kingdom; and G. J. Holland
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 8A T-PARC Targeted Data Studies
Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Japan
8:00 AM 8A.1 Properties of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling strategy for tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Shin-Gan Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. J. Majumdar and C. C. Wu 8:15 AM 8A.2 Synoptic sensitivity analysis of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008)   Recorded presentation William Komaromi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. D. Rappin, S. J. Majumdar, M. J. Brennan, S. G. Chen, D. S. Nolan, R. Langland, and C. S. Velden 8:30 AM 8A.3 Special satellite data analysis and NWP impact studies during TPARC   Recorded presentation Howard Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, R. Langland, and C. A. Reynolds 8:45 AM 8A.4 Targeted observation and its impact in DOTSTAR and T-PARC   Recorded presentation Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and P. H. Lin, K. H. Chou, S. D. Aberson, S. Majumdar, C. A. Reynolds, M. S. Peng, T. Nakazawa, P. A. Harr, H. M. Kim, M. Weissmann, J. H. Chen, and S. G. Chen 9:00 AM 8A.5 The influence of special T-PARC observations on typhoon track and mid-latitude forecasts   Recorded presentation Martin Weissmann, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany; and F. Harnisch, S. Rahm, T. Nakazawa, C. C. Wu, S. D. Aberson, Y. H. Kim, K. Yamashita, and Y. Ohta 9:15 AM 8A.6 Sensitivity of typhoon forecasts to different subsets of targeted observations   Recorded presentation Florian Harnisch, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany; and M. Weissmann 9:30 AM 8A.7a Impact of targeted dropsonde observations on the track forecast for SINLAKU (200813) using Ensemble Kalman Filter   Recorded presentation Byoung-Joo Jung, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and H. M. Kim, F. Zhang, and C. C. Wu
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 8B Tropical Cyclone Structure: Inner Structure and Vertical Structure
Chair: Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
8:00 AM 8B.1 Structure and intensity changes during hurricane eye formation   Recorded presentation Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado 8:15 AM 8B.2 Multiscale observations of tropical cyclone structure using airborne Doppler composites   Recorded presentation Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Lorsolo, P. D. Reasor, J. Gamache, and F. Marks 8:30 AM 8B.3 The distribution of helicity and intense convection in tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and K. A. Shontz 8:45 AM 8B.4 Tropical Cyclone Morphology and Phenomenology as Depicted in Passive Microwave Imagery   Recorded presentation Margaret E. Kieper, Database Consultant, Burnsville, MN 9:00 AM 8B.5 Estimating tropical cyclone intensity with inner core rotation as observed by MISR   Recorded presentation Dong L. Wu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. Nelson 9:15 AM 8B.6 The collapse of the eyewall of Hurricane Dolly (2008) into multiple mesovortices   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and Z. Gruskin 9:30 AM 8B.7 Microwave imagery and in situ validation of eye mesovortex structure in Hurricane Katrina (2005) at peak intensity   Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 8C Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Modeling
Moderator: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 8C.1 Adjoint Equations of Rotunno and Emanuel (1987): Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis   Recorded presentation Kosuke Ito, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 8:15 AM 8C.2B Secondary Eyewall Formation and Convectively-Generated Potential Vorticity in Rainbands in Hurricane Rita   Recorded presentation Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 8:30 AM 8C.3 The predictability of tropical cyclone intensity: Results from a simple dynamical model   Recorded presentation Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 8:45 AM 8C.4 Intensity forecasts for hurricane charley: the role of data assimilation   Recorded presentation Lisha Roubert, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis and G. J. Tripoli 9:00 AM 8C.5 Observational and modeling comparison of Super-Typhoon Jangmi (2008) and Hurricane Katrina (2005)   Recorded presentation Peter G. Black, SAIC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, S. Chen, J. D. Hawkins, D. S. Ko, J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, H. Jin, C. S. Liou, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, S. Wang, Q. Zhao, M. S. Peng, I. -. I. Lin, J. F. Gamache, and P. Niiler 9:15 AM 8C.6 Idealized simulations of the impact of dry Saharan air on Atlantic hurricanes   Recorded presentation Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Sippel and D. S. Nolan 9:30 AM 8C.7 The effects of turbulence on hurricane intensity   Recorded presentation George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno and Y. Chen
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 8D Intraseasonal Variability I
Chair: Brian E. Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 8D.1 The skeleton of tropical intraseasonal oscillations   Recorded presentation Andrew J. Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and S. N. Stechmann 8:15 AM 8D.2 Apparent coupling of oceanic Kelvin waves and atmospheric convection   Recorded presentation Lynn Michele Gribble - Verhagen, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. Roundy 8:30 AM 8D.3 Association of global weather patterns with intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin waves coupled to atmospheric convection   Recorded presentation Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY 8:45 AM 8D.4 The role of moisture-convection feedbacks in simulating the MJO   Recorded presentation Walter Hannah, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney 9:00 AM 8D.5 Caribbean Precipitation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Recorded presentation Elinor Martin, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 9:15 AM 8D.6 Diabatic Heating Distributions in the Tropics for Studies of Intraseasonal Phenomena   Recorded presentation William S. Olson, UMBC and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Grecu, G. Gu, T. S. L'Ecuyer, and M. G. Bosilovich 9:30 AM 8D.7 Tropical–extratropical interactions conducive to intraseasonal variability in the Northern Hemisphere available potential energy   Recorded presentation Jason M. Cordeira, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 9A T-PARC: Process Studies
Chair: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA
10:15 AM 9A.1 Retrieval of typhoon wind fields from Doppler radar and dropsonde data using an efficient 2-step approach   Recorded presentation Carlos López Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. Raymond 10:30 AM 9A.2 High Resolution Analysis of the Structure of a Convective System in Developing Typhoon Nuri   Recorded presentation Jorge Cisneros, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. López Carrillo and D. J. Raymond 10:45 AM 9A.3 Vorticity budget in developing typhoon Nuri   Recorded presentation David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. Lopez Carrillo 11:00 AM 9A.4 Convection and shear flow in TC development and intensification   Recorded presentation H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. P. Chang and C. H. Liu 11:15 AM 9A.5 Typhoon Sinlaku during T-PARC: Sensivity of the re-intensification and downstream development to the track following recurvature   Recorded presentation Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and E. R. Sanabia and A. B. Penny 11:30 AM 9A.6 How vertical wind shear affects the rapid intensification of Typhoon Jangmi (2008)   Recorded presentation Levi Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu 11:45 AM 9A.7 The interaction between the outflow of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) and the midlatitude jet during T-PARC   Recorded presentation Christian M. Grams, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, BW, Germany
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 9B Tropical Cyclone Structure: Wind Field
Chair: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL
10:15 AM 9B.1 Changes in Track and Structure of Tropical Cyclones near Landfall   Recorded presentation Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong 10:30 AM 9B.2 The compactness of typhoons in the western North Pacific   Recorded presentation Delia Yen-Chu Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and K. K. W. Cheung 10:45 AM 9B.3 Deficiencies of slab models of the hurricane boundary layer   Recorded presentation Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 11:00 AM 9B.4 A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size   Recorded presentation Daniel R. Chavas, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel 11:15 AM 9B.5 A comparison of axisymmetric and three-dimensional hurricanes in an idealized framework   John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams 11:30 AM 9B.6 The role of Lagrangian coherent structures in tropical cyclone formation   Recorded presentation Blake Rutherford, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and G. Dangelmayr and M. T. Montgomery 11:45 AM 9B.7 Ike (2008) and the Windstorm over Ohio   Recorded presentation Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and N. D'Allura
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 9C Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Forecast Methods
Moderator: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 9C.1 Improved short-term Atlantic hurricane intensity forecasts using reconnaissance-based core measurements   Recorded presentation D. Andrew Murray, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart 10:30 AM 9C.2 Data Mining Techniques for the Studies of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes   Ruixin Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and J. Tang 10:45 AM 9C.3 Assessing the impact of total precipitable water and lightning on SHIPS intensity forecasts   Recorded presentation John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Kaplan, and J. Dunion 11:00 AM 9C.4 Enhancements to the operational SHIPS rapid intensification index   Recorded presentation John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, J. Dunion, J. F. Dostalek, J. E. Solbrig, J. Hawkins, T. F. Lee, J. Zhang, E. Kalina, and P. Leighton 11:15 AM 9C.5 Tropical cyclone intensity change predictability estimates using a statistical-dynamical model   Recorded presentation Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO 11:30 AM 9C.6 Challenges of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center   Recorded presentation Matthew E. Kucas, JTWC = Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI 11:45 AM 9C.7 Assessment of the impact of increased lead time for tropical cyclone watches/warnings in the North Central Pacific   Recorded presentation Samuel Houston, CPHC/NWS/NOAA, Honolulu, HI; and R. Knabb, M. DeMaria, and A. Schumacher
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 9D Intraseasonal Variability II
Chair: Paul Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY
10:15 AM 9D.1 MJO and convectively coupled waves in a coarse resolution GCM with a simple multicloud parametrization   Recorded presentation Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. St Cyr, A. J. Majda, and J. Tribbia 10:30 AM 9D.2 Simulations of the Madden – Julian Oscillation using a Tropical Channel Model   Recorded presentation Marcela Ulate, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 10:45 AM 9D.3 An idealized, semi-empirical MJO model   Recorded presentation Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and E. D. Maloney 11:00 AM 9D.4 The Madden–Julian oscillation wind-convection coupling and the role of moisture processes in the MM5 model   Recorded presentation Erwan Monier, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and B. C. Weare and W. I. Gustafson Jr. 11:15 AM 9D.5 Studying the MJO with models that don't have one   Recorded presentation Brian E. Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 11:30 AM 9D.6 Role of the Atmospheric Mean-state on the Initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Tropical Channel Model   Recorded presentation Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. K. Ray, C. Zhang, and J. Dudhia 11:45 AM 9D.7 Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on convection and circulation in the subtropics to midlatitudes in the IPCC AR4 Simulations   Recorded presentation Chiharu Takahashi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and N. Sato, A. Seiki, K. Yoneyama, R. Shirooka, and Y. N. Takayabu
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 10A TCS-08: Formation
Chair: Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
1:15 PM 10A.1 Applying Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Understand the Tropical Cyclogenesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008)   Recorded presentation Rahul B. Mahajan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim 1:30 PM 10A.2 Role of Mesoscale Convective Rings and Mesoscale Convective Blowouts in Tropical Cyclone Formations during TCS-08 Experiment   Recorded presentation Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and A. Chollet 1:45 PM 10A.3 Analysis of a-typical tropical cyclone genesis during TCS08   Recorded presentation Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam 2:00 PM 10A.4 Observation and simulation of the genesis of Typhoon Fengshen during the PALAU-2008 field experiment   Hiroyuki Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and W. Yanase, M. Sato, K. Yoneyama, and R. Shirooka 2:15 PM 10A.5 Development of pre-depression Hagupit observed during TCS08   Recorded presentation Michael M. Bell, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery 2:30 PM 10A.6 The genesis of Typhoon Nuri as observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) field experiment   Recorded presentation Louis L. Lussier III, NPS, Monterey, CA 2:45 PM 10A.7b Genesis of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) during the MJO: Formation and synoptic evolution of a tilted vortex   Recorded presentation Wallace Hogsett, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 10B Tropical Cyclone Structure: Concentric Eyewalls
Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL
1:15 PM 10B.1 Dynamical mechanisms for secondary eyewall formation: insights from a cloud-resolving tropical cyclone model   Recorded presentation Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Kossin and D. S. Nolan 1:30 PM 10B.2 Concentric eyewall formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part I: Assimilation of T-PARC data based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)   Recorded presentation Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and G. Y. Lien, J. H. Chen, and Y. H. Huang 1:45 PM 10B.3 Concentric eyewall formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part II: Dynamical analyses   Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and G. Y. Lien 2:00 PM 10B.4 Secondary eyewall formation in high-resolution hurricane simulations   Recorded presentation Sergio Abarca, UCLA, Los Angeles, 90095 2:15 PM 10B.5 Intensity and structure variations associated with eyewall replacement cycles   Recorded presentation Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin and C. M. Rozoff 2:30 PM 10B.6 Environmental and Internal Controls of Concentric Eyewalls Formation and Replacement: RAINEX and Beyond   Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 2:45 PM 10B.7a Intensity change associated with concentric eyewall replacement   Xiaqiong Zhou, university of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang 10B.7 Characteristics and climatology of eyewall replacement cycles for Atlantic tropical cyclones from observations   Mélicie Desflots, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and I. M. Dima
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 10C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Operational Models
Chair: James Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:15 PM 10C.1 The impact of resolution on Met Office model predictions of tropical cyclone track and intensity   Recorded presentation Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom 1:30 PM 10C.2 Analysis of tropical cyclone activity in three recent versions of the Canadian global numerical weather prediction system   Recorded presentation Ayrton Zadra, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and B. Dugas, A. M. Leduc, R. McTaggart-Cowan, M. Roch, and P. Vaillancourt 1:45 PM 10C.3 Diagnosis of operational model track forecast error for Hurricane Ike (2008)   Recorded presentation Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar 2:00 PM 10C.4 Performance of the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for 2008-2009 hurricane seasons   Recorded presentation Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NCEP/EMC- SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Lapenta, S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, Q. Liu, Y. Kwon, Z. Zhang, R. E. Tuleya, and J. O'Connor 2:15 PM 10C.5 Evaluation of 2008 season hurricane forecasts with a new shallow cumulus convection package in the NCEP GFS   Jongil Han, NOAA/NCEP/EMC/WYLE, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan 2:30 PM 10C.6 Consequences, Intended and Unintended, of Tropical Cyclone Surveillance Globally during 2008   Recorded presentation Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL, FL 2:45 PM 10C.7 Verification of Operational Storm Surge Predictions from the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike (2008)   Recorded presentation Jessica Schauer, NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 10D Intraseasonal Variability III
Chair: Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:15 PM 10D.1 Biases in global reanalysis datasets undermine the forecasting skill of tropical intraseasonal variability   Recorded presentation Xiouhua (Joshua) Fu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 1:30 PM 10D.3 Water vapor and SST variations associated with equatorial waves over the tropical Indian Ocean   Kazuaki Yasunaga, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, Y. N. Takayabu, M. Yoshizaki, and M. Fujita 1:45 PM 10D.4 Interactions between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific   Tim Li, Unicersity of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and P. C. Hsu and C. H. Tsou 10D.2 Tropical intraseasonal variability in seasonal hindcasts and climate simulations   Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and P. K. Xavier and F. Doblas Reyes 2:00 PM 10D.5 Intraseasonal variability of the Saharan Heat Low and its link with mid-latitudes   Recorded presentation Romain Roehrig, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and F. Chauvin and J. P. Lafore 2:15 PM 10D.6 Interannual variations and predictability of intraseasonal convective events over South America   Recorded presentation Fernando Hirata, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster 2:30 PM 10D.7 Zonal mean momentum in northern summer: is budget and some possible implications   Patrick Kelly, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 11A TCS-08: Structure
Chair: David J. Raymond, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM
3:30 PM 11A.1 Mesoscale numerical simulations of TCS08 typhoons with assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Zhang, Q. Zhao, and W. Lee 3:45 PM 11A.2 Prediction and diagnosis of the motion and rapid intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku during TCS08 (Tropical Cyclone Structure Experiment, 2008)   Recorded presentation Marie-Dominique Leroux, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones, unité mixte CNRS - Meteo-France - Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion 4:00 PM 11A.3 Latent heating rate profiles at different tropical cyclone stages during 2008 Tropical Cyclone Structure experiment: Comparison of ELDORA and TRMM PR retrievals   Myung-Sook Park, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and M. M. Bell 4:15 PM 11A.4 Scale Interactions during the Re-intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku prior to Extratropical Transition   Elizabeth R. Sanabia, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr 4:30 PM 11A.5 The role of multiple mesoscale convective systems in a non-developing tropical disturbance observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) field experiment   Andrew B. Penny, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. Malvig and P. Harr 4:45 PM 11A.6 The effects of complex terrain on tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall during TCS-08   Recorded presentation Brian J. Billings, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle 5:00 PM 11A.7 TCS08 Minority Report: how to prevent typhoons in the western North Pacific   Recorded presentation Mark A. Lander, University of Guam (WERI), Mangilao, Guam
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 11B Tropical Cyclone Structure: Rainbands and Precipitation
Chair: Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
3:30 PM 11B.1 Spiral rainbands as seen in numerically simulated hurricanes   Recorded presentation Yumin Moon, University of Miami, Miami, FL 3:45 PM 11B.2 Impacts of evaporative cooling on tropical cyclone rainband   Recorded presentation Masahiro Sawada, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan; and T. Iwasaki 4:00 PM 11B.3 The water budget of Typhoon Nari (2001) at landfall   Recorded presentation Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Jhongli City, Taiwan; and S. Braun and D. S. Chen 4:15 PM 11B.4 Rainfall Distributions over Land associated with Tropical Cyclones making landfall along the South China Coast   Recorded presentation Kit Ying Fung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan 4:30 PM 11B.5 Orographic Effects on Rainfall induced by the Passage of Tropical Cyclones over Mountainous Islands   Recorded presentation Ian C. Colon Pagan Sr., North Carolina A&T State University - SOARS, Greensboro, NC 4:45 PM 11B.6 Dynamics and Structure of Supercells Induced by Hurricane Katrina (2005)   Recorded presentation Bamjamin Green, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang 5:00 PM 11B.7 Squall Lines preceding Landfalling Tropical Cyclones   Recorded presentation Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, Beijing, China; and Y. Zhang
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 11C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Ensemble Systems
Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, Devon United Kingdom
3:30 PM 11C.1 Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance in the tropics   Recorded presentation Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, M. K. Flatau, J. A. Ridout, and E. Serra 3:45 PM 11C.2 Impact of ensemble composition, formulation, and resolution on tropical cyclone track forecast performance   Recorded presentation James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. G. McLay, and E. Serra 4:00 PM 11C.3 Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts   Recorded presentation Munehiko Yamaguchi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 4:15 PM 11C.4 Real-time mesoscale ensemble data assimilation for Atlantic TC   Recorded presentation Ryan Torn, SUNY / University at Albany, Albany, NY; and S. Cavallo, C. Davis, and C. Snyder 4:30 PM 11C.5 Assimilation of tropical cyclone track and structure based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)   Guo-Yuan Lien, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and F. Zhang 4:45 PM 11C.6 Dynamics and structure of three-dimensional error covariance of a mature tropical cyclone   Recorded presentation Jonathan Poterjoy, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang 5:00 PM 11C.7 Vortex structures from an ensemble-based data assimilation and hurricane prediction system during the 2009 Atlantic tropical cyclone season   Recorded presentation Steven M. Cavallo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Torn, C. Snyder, C. Davis, W. Wang, and J. Done
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 11D Catastrophe Modeling Strategies and Applications
Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA
3:30 PM 11D.1 Hurricane Severity Index: A More Efficient Way of Predicting a Tropical Cyclone's Destructive Potential   Recorded presentation Chris Hebert, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and R. Weinzapfel and M. Chambers 3:45 PM 11D.2 Effect of SST and ENSO on western North Pacific tropical cyclone landfall via changes in genesis   Recorded presentation Emmi Yonekura, Columbia University, New York, NY; and T. M. Hall 4:00 PM 11D.3 Tropical cyclone return periods on the U.S. Atlantic coast: comparison of methods   Recorded presentation Timothy M. Hall, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and J. Kleinn 4:15 PM 11D.4 Probabilistic storm surge heights for the US using full stochastic events   Shangyao Nong, FM Global, Norwood, MA; and J. McCollum, L. Xu, M. Scheffler, and H. Ali 4:30 PM 11D.5 Myths about the Cause of Hurricane Katrina's Storm Surge   Recorded presentation Pat Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau, C. M. Hill, T. V. Wamsley, B. Jelley, and E. Valenti 4:45 PM 11D.6 Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability on Modeled Atlantic Hurricane Losses   Recorded presentation Justin Brolley, EQECAT, Inc, Oakland, CA; and D. F. Smith and A. Haseemkunju 5:00 PM 11D.7 Insured loss estimation from wind and storm surge for a re-occurrence of typhoon vera   Recorded presentation Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and C. Kafali
	6:30 PM-8:30 PM, Wednesday Conference Banquet
Thursday, 13 May 2010
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 12A Air-Sea Interaction I
Chair: Robert Korty, Texas A&M, College Station, TX
8:00 AM 12A.1 Ocean-atmosphere interactions in tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Lynn K. Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 8:15 AM 12A.2 Numerical simulations of the hurricane intensity response to a warm ocean eddy   Recorded presentation Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis 8:30 AM 12A.3 Upwelling and mixed layer deepening in mesoscale oceanic eddies during the passage of tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Benjamin Jaimes, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay 8:45 AM 12A.4 Ocean Response to Hurricane Ophelia: Observations and Simulations   S. Daniel Jacob, GEST, Univ. of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Rolling 9:00 AM 12A.5 Impact of the upper-ocean thermal structure on typhoon intensity change in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model   Shao-Liang Sung, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and S. S. Chen 9:15 AM 12A.6 Evaluation of 1D and 3D ocean coupling on GFDL hurricane model forecast skill in the Western Pacific   Recorded presentation Raymond A. Richardson, WeatherPredict Consulting, Inc, Raleigh, NC; and I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. M. Yablonsky, and M. A. Bender 9:30 AM 12A.7 Interactions of tropical cyclone with river plumes   Il-Ju Moon, Cheju National University, Jujusi, South Korea; and S. H. Kim and S. J. Kwon
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 12B Tropical Cyclone Observations I
Moderator: Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 12B.1 Capture and Characterization of Near-Surface Wind-Driven Rain during Hurricane Ike (2008)   Recorded presentation Jennifer Haydt, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and F. Masters and R. A. Black 8:15 AM 12B.2 Measuring sea spray changes in hurricanes via measurements of salt concentrations in rain using a salinity/conductivity sensor on a NOAA research aircraft   Recorded presentation James Robert Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and H. Hoefmeister, J. A. Smith, and J. H. Roles 8:30 AM 12B.3 Surface heat fluxes of tropical cyclones from satellite data sets and reanalyses   Carol Anne Clayson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. A. Curry and J. Liu 8:45 AM 12B.4 Near-surface temperature and moisture observations from tropical cyclones between 1975-2007: Axisymmetric and asymmetric structural analysis   Recorded presentation Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang and E. W. Uhlhorn 9:00 AM 12B.5 Validation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data using GPS dropsondes in tropical cyclone environments   Recorded presentation Edward Hildebrand, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 9:15 AM 12B.6 A comparison of atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture profiles with dropsonde observations over tropical oceans: the bias correction and impact on numerical simulation of tropical cyclones   Lei Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu 9:30 AM 12B.7 Adaptive sounding arrays for tropical regions   Recorded presentation Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 12C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: High-Resolution Model- HWRF
Chair: Christipher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 12C.1 Improving operational hurricane prediction with NCEP's Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) system: future advancements, community involvement and transition of research to operations through the Development Testbed Center (DTC)   Recorded presentation Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Y. Kwon, Z. Zhang, Q. Liu, L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, I. Ginis, G. J. Holland, C. Davis, and L. Carson 8:15 AM 12C.2 Energy budget analysis of HWRF model hurricanes   Recorded presentation Katherine S. Maclay, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 8:30 AM 12C.3 Sensitivity of the NOAA Hurricane Research and Forecasting Model (HWRFX) to Various Cloud and Boundary Layer Parameterizations   Recorded presentation J.-W. Bao, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan and S. A. Michelson 8:45 AM 12C.4 The sensitivity of TC intensity and structure to grid spacing in the Advanced Hurricane WRF   Recorded presentation Daniel J. Halperin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg 9:00 AM 12C.5 Vortex-scale hurricane data assimilation: Real-data results using combined NOAA/AOML/HRD HWRF-X regional and NOAA/ESRL GFS global ensemble Kalman filter systems   Recorded presentation Altug Aksoy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic, J. S. Whitaker, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and S. D. Aberson 9:15 AM 12C.6 Adaptation of the Advanced Hurricane WRF for driving a storm surge prediction model   Recorded presentation Craig Mattocks, University of North Carolina, Morehead City, NC; and C. Forbes, G. Jedlovec, J. L. Case, and F. J. LaFontaine 9:30 AM 12C.7 Test results using the NOAH LSM in the operational HWRF system   Recorded presentation Robert Tuleya, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Norfolk, VA; and Y. Wu
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 12D Convection I
Chair: Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Madison, WI
8:00 AM 12D.1 What do cloud-resolving models tell us about critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation?   Recorded presentation Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. Kochanski 8:15 AM 12D.2 Multiple equilibria in a cloud resolving model   Recorded presentation Sharon L. Sessions, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. Sugaya, D. J. Raymond, and A. H. Sobel 8:30 AM 12D.3 "Deconstruction" of the mass-flux convective parameterization problem   Recorded presentation Jun-Ichi Yano, CNRM, Toulouse, France, Toulouse, France 8:45 AM 12D.4 Grid-scale instabilities in a popular cumulus parametrization masked by numerical dissipation   Recorded presentation Ian Ross, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider and N. A. McFarlane 9:00 AM 12D.5 A density current parameterization coupled with Emanuel's convection Scheme   Recorded presentation Jean Yves Grandpeix, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. P. Lafore, R. Roehrig, and F. Cheruy 9:15 AM 12D.6 A comparison between Carnot and steam cycles, and their implications for moist convection   Olivier Pauluis, New York University, New York, NY 9:30 AM 12D.7 The variable gross moist stability   Recorded presentation Zhiming Kuang, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Andersen
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Thursday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 13A Air-Sea Interaction II
Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 13A.1 Developing coupled wind-wave-current interaction framework with sea spray effects for hurricanes models   Recorded presentation Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and Y. Fan, T. Hara, B. Thomas, J. -. W. Bao, and L. Bianco 10:30 AM 13A.2 Impact of sea spray on the surface boundary layer   Recorded presentation Laura Bianco, NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, C. W. Fairall, and S. A. Michelson 10:45 AM 13A.3 A study of the sffect of ocean spray on vertical momentum transport under high-wind conditions of tropical cyclone   Recorded presentation Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin 11:00 AM 13A.4 Effects of Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on Tropical Cyclone Structure   Recorded presentation Chiaying Lee, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 11:15 AM 13A.5 Shallow water wave measurements in the hurricane enviroment   Recorded presentation Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Stamates, S. Cummings, S. Kimball, and F. Marks 11:30 AM 13A.6 Laboratory investigation of wind-wave interaction under severe wind conditions   Yuliya Troitskaya, IAP RAS Institute of Applied Physics Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia; and V. Kazakov, S. Daniil, E. Olga, S. Mikhail, and B. Nicolay 11:45 AM 13A.7 Turbulence, Bubbles, and Drift Current in the Near-Surface Layer of the Ocean   Recorded presentation Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL; and A. Fujimura and R. Lukas
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 13B Tropical Cyclone Observations II
Moderator: James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC, MIami, FL
10:15 AM 13B.1 A Numerical Study into the Dynamic Behaviour of a GPS dropsonde in a Prescribed Wind Field   Recorded presentation Sunwei Li, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and C. Miller 10:30 AM 13B.2 Comparison of HRD Airborne-Doppler radar quality control and analysis to independent data sources   Recorded presentation John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, S. Lorsolo, and S. Aberson 10:45 AM 13B.3 NOAA's utilization of Coyote unmanned aircraft systems for tropical cyclone research   Recorded presentation LCDR Nancy Ash, NOAA, MacDill AFB, FL; and J. J. Cione 11:00 AM 13B.4 High altitude aircraft observations enabling 3-D pre-genesis monitoring   Recorded presentation Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. G. Black, P. A. Harr, and R. L. Elsberry 11:15 AM 13B.5 Estimating maximum surface winds from hurricane reconnaissance measurements   Recorded presentation Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL; and J. D. Kepert and E. Uhlhorn 11:30 AM 13B.6 Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer algorithm improvements addressing rain contamination of surface wind speed measurements in tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML/HRD - CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn 11:45 AM 13B.7 Assessment of hurricane observational under-sampling and its impact on estimated intensity   Recorded presentation Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and T. L. Miller, D. S. Nolan, and R. Atlas
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 13C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Structure and Intensity
Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:15 AM 13C.1 Sensitivity of Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients (Cd and Ch) on Hurricane Intensity   Recorded presentation Young C. Kwon, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, B. Lapenta, V. Tallapragada, Q. Liu, and Z. Zhang 10:30 AM 13C.2 Constraints on drag and exchange coefficients at extreme wind speeds   Recorded presentation Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and P. Sandery, G. Brassington, M. Entel, C. Siegenthaler- LeDrian, J. D. Kepert, and R. Darbyshire 10:45 AM 13C.3 Dependence of tropical cyclone inner-core size and intensity on the initial vortex size   Recorded presentation Jing Xu, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang 11:00 AM 13C.4 On diagnosing the hurricane boundary layer: inertial stability versus Richardson number   Recorded presentation Aaron Paget, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. H. Ruscher and D. R. Ryglicki 11:15 AM 13C.5 Influence of cloud-radiative feedback on tropical cyclone motion   Robert G. Fovell, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and K. L. Corbosiero and A. Seifert 11:30 AM 13C.6 Wind-wave-current interaction in hurricanes   Recorded presentation Yalin Fan, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis 11:45 AM 13C.7 Tornadic supercells in hurricane katrina: a high-resolution modeling study   Recorded presentation Zachary Handlos, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis and G. J. Tripoli
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 13D Convection II
Chair: Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL
10:15 AM 13D.1 Year of tropical convection (YOTC): status and research agenda   Recorded presentation Duane Edward Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and M. W. Moncrieff 10:30 AM 13D.2 Identifying the ITCZ in satellite data using Markov Random Fields: Overview and interannual variability in the east Pacific   Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and C. Bain, J. De Paz Rodrigues, J. Kramer, P. Smyth, and H. Stern 10:45 AM 13D.3 Correlations between lightning and characteristics of convective cells in tropical thunderstorms   Recorded presentation Chuntao Liu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser 11:00 AM 13D.4 Global Distribution of Convection in Tropical Cyclones Based on 11 yr of TRMM Data   Recorded presentation Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL 11:15 AM 13D.5 Rain on small tropical islands   Recorded presentation Casey Burleyson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. H. Sobel and S. E. Yuter 11:30 AM 13D.6 Inter and intraseasonal variations of cloud and precipiation characteristics over the Amazon Basin, observed with TRMM PR and Cloudsat CPR data   Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and H. Higuchi 11:45 AM 13D.7 Clouds associated with the MJO: A new perspective from CloudSat   Recorded presentation Emily M. Riley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. E. Mapes
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 14A Air-Sea Interaction III
Chair: Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
1:15 PM 14A.1 Upper ocean thermal structure of the East China sea and its impact on typhoon intensity   I.-I. Lin, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and G. C. Gong, K. Emanuel, J. F. Price, C. C. Lien, I. F. Pun, and C. -. C. Wu 1:30 PM 14A.2 Ocean heat content variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for intensity forecasting   Recorded presentation Jodi K. Brewster, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay 1:45 PM 14A.3 Comparison of Altimeter Derived and In-Situ Hurricane Heat Potential   Paolo de Matthaeis, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Jacob and B. Young 2:00 PM 14A.4 Modeling and observations of the Atlantic Meridional Mode during the hurricane season   Recorded presentation Dimitry Smirnov, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont 2:15 PM 14A.5 The southeast Pacific warm band and double ITCZ   Recorded presentation Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and T. S. L'Ecuyer 2:30 PM 14A.6 Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback and Cloud-Radiation Feedback in Southeastern Pacific simulated by 24 IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs   Michael Davis, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin, T. Qian, and M. P. Hung 2:45 PM 14A.7 Sea Surface Temperature Biases under the Stratus Cloud Deck in the Southeast Pacific Ocean in 19 IPCC AR4 Coupled General Circulation Models   Yangxing Zheng, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. Shinoda, J. L. Lin, and G. N. Kiladis
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 14B Tropical Cyclones and Large-scale Circulations
Chair: Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
1:15 PM 14B.1 Conceptual Model of Western North Pacific Monsoon Depression Formation   Recorded presentation Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and J. Beattie 1:30 PM 14B.2 Co-variability of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific   Recorded presentation Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. K. Lee 1:45 PM 14B.3 Downstream Development of the Summertime TC/Sub-monthly Wave Pattern in the Extratropical North Pacific   Recorded presentation Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu 2:00 PM 14B.4 Analysis of the large-scale environment preceding the development of an African disturbance   Recorded presentation Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 2:15 PM 14B.5 The Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Climate Memory in the Atmosphere-Ocean System   PDF file Recorded presentation Benjamin Schenkel, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart 2:30 PM 14B.6 Dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and implications for tropical cyclones   Recorded presentation Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI 2:45 PM 14B.7 Exploring Influence of Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea Cyclones on Warm Season Rainfall over Central US   Amita V. Mehta, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and E. A. Smith
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 14C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Special Observations and Data
Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
1:15 PM 14C.1 Impact of Assimilating Environmental Satellite Observations on Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Analyses and Forecasts   Recorded presentation Hui Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anderson, B. Kuo, C. Snyder, and Y. Chen 1:30 PM 14C.2 Initialization of Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Prediction Systems   Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. Hendricks, T. Li, and X. Ge 1:45 PM 14C.3 A Tropical Cyclone Vortex Dynamic-Initialization Methodology Applying In Situ Observations and Experiments Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model   Recorded presentation Henry R. Winterbottom, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 2:00 PM 14C.4 Evaluation of a vortex relocation scheme and the impact of various synthetic observations on tropical cyclone initialization in an advanced research WRF   Weiyu Ding, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu 2:15 PM 14C.5 Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Data for Hurricane Initialization and Prediction in HWRF   Recorded presentation Mingjing Tong, UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Derber, Q. Liu, S. Lord, W. M. Lapenta, and J. F. Gamache 2:30 PM 14C.6 Generation of synthetic observations and their Impact on COAMPS-TC analysis and forecast   Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi 2:45 PM 14C.7 The Impacts of GPS Radio Occultation Data on Tropical Cyclone Prediction   Recorded presentation Ying-Hwa Kuo, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Fang, Y. R. Guo, H. Liu, and Z. Ma
	1:15 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 14D Convection III
Chair: Christian Jakob, Monash University, Melbourne., Victoria Australia
1:15 PM 14D.1 Bi-modal structure and evolution of tropical diabatic heating profiles   Recorded presentation Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. M. Hagos 1:30 PM 14D.2 Dissecting diabatic heating profiles during TWP-ICE   Recorded presentation Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. Xie and S. A. McFarlane 1:45 PM 14D.3 The classification and simulation of precipitating convective regimes over Darwin, Australia   Recorded presentation Simon Caine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and C. Jakob, S. T. Siems, P. T. May, and T. Lane 2:00 PM 14D.4 Exploring the diurnal cycle in rainfall using idealized cloud resolving model studies   Recorded presentation Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Madison, WI 2:15 PM 14D.5 What sets the humidity of the tropical stratosphere?   Recorded presentation David M. Romps, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and Z. Kuang and P. N. Blossey 2:30 PM 14D.6 Assessing the role of overshooting deep convection on water vapour in the TTL   Recorded presentation Muhammad E. Hassim, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. P. Lane 14D.7 A 2-d modeling approach for studying the formation, maintenance, and decay of Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) cirrus associated with deep convection   Daniel R. Henz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Hashino, G. J. Tripoli, and E. A. Smith
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 7 Formal Poster Viewing
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 7 Poster Session 2 Posters: Tropical Cyclone Modeling, Convection, Tropical Cyclone Structure, Intraseasonal Variability, T-PARC, TCS-08, Air-Sea Interaction, Convectively Coupled Waves, Tropical Cyclone Observations, Climate Change, Probabilistic Forecasting
P2.1 The Systematically Merged Atlantic Regional Temperature and Salinity (SMARTS) Climatology   Patrick C. Meyers, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. K. Brewster and L. K. Shay   P2.2 Convectively coupled waves in a sheared environment   Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. Han   P2.3 Applying Multi-sensor and ECMWF Analyses to Characterize and Evaluate Cloud, Convection and Radiation Processes in Numerical Models   Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, W. T. Chen, T. L'Ecuyer, Y. C. Wang, W. W. Tung, J. D. Neelin, B. Kahn, E. Fetzer, and R. G. Fovell   P2.4 Vaisala dropsondes: History, status, and applications   Ilkka Ikonen II, Vaisala, Inc., Vantaa, Finland; and N. W. S. Demetriades and R. L. Holle   P2.5 Validation of QuikSCAT wind vectors by dropwindsonde data from DOTSTAR   Kun-Hsuan Chou, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and S. J. Majumdar   P2.6 On sources of dry tropical air in the environment of Atlantic tropical cyclones   Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Boller   P2.7 Recurving eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones   Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Dickinson and L. F. Bosart   P2.8 Monsoon Rainfall Characteristics: Precipitation Types and Associated Environment Regimes observed during SoWMEX/TiMREX   Ben Jong-Dao Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Tong   P2.9 Data collected by the University of South Alabama Mesonet during Tropical Storm Fay (2008) and Hurricane Ida (2009)   Sytske Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL   P2.10 Large-scale features associated with Arabian Sea cyclonic storms   Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. J. Camargo   P2.11 Analysis of data gathered during NOAA WP-3D penetrations of Hurricanes Felix, Katrina and Ivan during episodes of extreme intensity   Richard G. Henning, NOAA, MacDill AFB, FL; and J. Parrish, A. B. Damiano, J. Williams, I. T. Sears, and P. Flaherty   P2.12 SEAWINDS IMPROVED OCEAN VECTOR WIND RETRIEVALS IN HURRICANES   Suleiman Odeh Alsweiss, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL; and P. Laupattarakasem and L. Jones   P2.13 An evaluation of the use of the mean vortex wind as a proxy for the environmental wind   Paul R. Harasti, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA   P2.14 Predecessor Rain Events ahead of recurving tropical cyclones: Using numerical simulations and ensemble forecasts to quantify the rainfall enhancement   Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. P2.15 PAPER WITHDRAWN     P2.16 Determining the error characteristics of H*Wind   Steven M. DiNapoli, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa   P2.17 Wind Effects on Asphalt Shingles   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and R. Herzog, S. M. Morrison, and J. Green   P2.19 Composite structure of vortical hot towers observed in Hurricane Guillermo (1997)   Kelly C. Smith, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and M. D. Eastin   P2.20 A new parametric tropical cyclone wind-profile model: Testing and verification   Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. W. White and H. E. Willoughby   P2.22 Eddy variations in the Western North Pacific South Eddy Zone by Satellite Altimetry Observation for Typhoon Intensification Research   Iam Fei Pun, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and I. -. I. Lin   P2.23 Developing high spatial resolution daytime cloud climatologies for Africa   Rahama Beida, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas and A. Dominguez   P2.25 An observational study of tropical cyclone landfall processes in the Australian region   Yubin Li, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and K. K. W. Cheung and J. C. L. Chan   P2.26 Ocean-atmosphere interaction effects on tropical cyclone inner-core convective bursts   Paula Ann Hennon, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and J. Halverson and C. C. Hennon   P2.28 Air-sea coupling and tropical cyclone prediction in the Australian region   Paul Sandery, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia   P2.29 The Impact of Taiwan Topography on the Predictability of Typhoon Morakot's Record-breaking Rainfall: A High-resolution Ensemble Simulation   Xingqin Fang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo   P2.30 Predicting Typhoon Morakot's Catastrophic Rainfall and Flooding With a Cloud-Scale Ensemble System   Yonghui Weng, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, Y. H. Kuo, and J. S. Whitaker   P2.31 The influence of Tropical cyclone structure on storm evolution and its interaction with topography   Kun-Hsuan Chou, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. C. Wu P2.32 A factor controlling surface wind asymmetries in typhoons revealed by QuikSCAT wind data   Mitsuru Ueno, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Bessho   P2.33 Validating the ocean model component of coupled hurricane-ocean models   Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis, B. Thomas, J. J. Cione, G. R. Halliwell Jr., E. W. Uhlhorn, H. S. Kim, C. Lozano, E. P. Chassignet, and H. R. Winterbottom   P2.34 Structural analysis of SSM/I and TMI overpasses of tropical cyclones from 1987-2008   Daniel S. Harnos, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt and K. R. Knapp   P2.35 Tropical and subtropical influences on Montreal’s record-breaking rainfall event of 8-9 November 1996   Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum, and D. A. Durnford   P2.36 Beta-effect on the evolution of tropical cyclone   Juan Fang, Nanjing University, China, Nanjing, China; and F. Zhang   P2.37 Extreme winds associated with a collapsing core on the Mobile waterfront during the landfall of Hurricane Katrina   Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. Williams and J. Holmes   P2.38 Effects of Extreme SST Cooling on Hurricane Ophelia (2005) Structure: RAINEX Observation and Coupled Model Simulation   Jie Ming, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and C. Lee   P2.39 Analysis of wind field variations of major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico   Christopher M. Hill, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick and Y. Lau   P2.40 Gravity waves in shear and implications for organized convection   Samuel N. Stechmann, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and A. J. Majda   P2.41 Hurricane Ike Damage Survey   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX   P2.42 Thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones from dropsondes   Leon Nguyen, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Thomas, D. Vollaro, and J. Molinari   P2.43 Structural evolution in diabatic heating profiles of the MJO in global reanalysis   Jian Ling, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang   P2.44 Determination of the Highest Cloud Top in SAS Scheme and Its Impact on Hurricane Forecasts   Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Pan, S. Lord, B. Lapenta, V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, Y. Kwon, and J. Oconnor   P2.45 Okinawa typhoons, 1954 - 1956   Fred S. Hickernell, University of Arizona, Phoenix, AZ   P2.46 Surface cold pools in the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Hanna (2008)   Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and T. Gardner, M. C. Link, and K. C. Smith   P2.47 Miniature supercells observed in an offshore outer rainband of Hurricane Gustav (2008)   Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and J. Edwards   P2.48 Case study on validation and interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector as targeted observation guidance of tropical cyclones   Shin-Gan Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and K. H. Chou   P2.49 An Effort to Increase Storm Surge Threat Awareness for the Charleston, SC Area Using a Web-based Visualization Tool and Associated Survey   Frank Alsheimer, NOAA/NWSFO, North Charleston, SC; and R. Bright, B. L. Lindner, J. Johnson, and S. Duke P2.50 Large-scale scope of damage prediction model for landfalling hurricanes   Joseph Spain, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX   P2.51 Improved SFMR surface wind measurements in intense rain conditions   Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. A. Black and B. W. Klotz   P2.52 Evolving boundary layer measurements during hurricanes Gustav and Ike   Jeffrey Scott Zuczek, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. C. Meyers, E. W. Uhlhorn, R. Lumpkin, B. Jaimes, J. K. Brewster, and G. R. Halliwell Jr.   P2.53 NOAA's Vision for a Coordinated Storm Surge Enterprise   Jamie Rhome, NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Feyen and M. Erickson   P2.54 Lightning fatalities in tropical and subtropical regions   Ronald L. Holle, Holle Meteorology & Photography, Oro Valley, AZ   P2.55 Impact of the atmospheric boundary layer on eyewall mesovortices of hurricanes   Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and K. Menelaou   P2.56 Characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks over western North Pacific - the case study of Typhoon Fengshen (2008)   Chung-Chuan Yang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu   P2.57 The influence of the island topography on tropical cyclone track deflection and looping motion   Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and T. S. Huang   P2.58 An investigation into gradient balance of flight-level tropical cyclone windfields   Michael P.M. Gibbons, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and C. Miller   P2.59 The HWRFX Modeling System: Recent Developments in Hurricane Structure and Intensity Forecasting Research in NOAA   S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, T. Quirino, R. Rogers, K. Yeh, F. Marks, and R. Atlas   P2.60 Interannual Changes of Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific   Haikun Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Wu and W. Zhou   P2.62 An intercomparison of WRF-ARW and JMA-NHM performance in prediction of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea in 2008   S.T. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and T. F. Chan and W. K. Wong P2.61 Microphysical structures of stratiform clouds associated with the MJO observed during MISMO project   Kenji Suzuki, Yamaguchi University, Yamaguchi, Japan; and S. Shigeto, H. Wada, K. Iseki, and K. Yoneyama   P2.63 Cloud-top-height variability associated with equatorial Kelvin waves in the tropical tropopause layer   Junko Suzuki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Fujiwara, A. Hamada, K. Yoneyama, and R. Shirooka   P2.64 The large-scale response of tropical atmosphere to latent heating estimated from the TRMM PR   Shoichi Shige, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan   P2.65 The orographic effects of Reunion Island on tropical cyclone tracks   David Barbary, Météo-France/LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and Y. L. Lin   P2.66 Statistical assessment of tropical cloud-system resolving model simulations using a cell-tracking algorithm   Simon Caine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and T. P. Lane, P. T. May, J. Pinto, C. Jakob, S. T. Siems, and M. J. Manton   P2.67 Modelling the transient response of the Dines anemometer in tropical cyclone winds   Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia   P2.68 PBL triggering mechanism of convective rainfall viewed from Helicity during TC landfall   Leiming Ma, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China   P2.69 Aggregated Convection and the Regulation of Tropical Climate   Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. Emanuel   P2.70 Constructing a 13-year (1996-2008) high resolution GPS dropsonde database for hurricane research   Jeffrey Halverson, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and J. Wang, K. Young, B. Arensdorf, and M. Black   P2.71 The effect of marine cold-air outbreaks on tropical cyclone potential intensity in the Gulf of Mexico   Rebecca Hunniford, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. A. Clayson and A. S. Bogdanoff   P2.72 An Analysis of Recent Dynamical Model Guidance for Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones Near the Coast of Mexico   Todd B. Kimberlain, DOC, Miami, FL, FL; and D. P. Brown   P2.73 A Re-analysis of the 1943 Atlantic Hurricane Season - The First Flight into a Hurricane   Cristina Carrasco, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea P2.74 Evaluating boundary-layer based mass flux closure using cloud resolving model simulations of deep convection   Jennifer K. Fletcher, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton   P2.75 Tropical cyclone lightning characteristics as revealed by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)   Sergio Abarca, UCLA, Los Angeles, 90095; and K. L. Corbosiero and T. J. Galarneau Jr.   P2.76 Predictable structures in idealized steady state hurricanes   Bonnie R. Brown, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim   P2.77 Convective quasi-equilibrium revisited, part I: theory   David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs   P2.78 Investigating the relationship between tropical precipitation and water vapor in a cloud resolving model   Satomi Sugaya, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. L. Sessions and D. J. Raymond   P2.79 Impact of microphysical assumptions on the intensity and the structure of simulated hurricanes: Can satellite observations help determine the optimal set of microphysical assumptions?   Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Chao, A. Chau, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, J. Martin, W. L. Poulsen, E. Rodriguez, B. W. Stiles, S. Tanelli, F. J. Turk, D. G. Vane, and Q. A. Vu P2.80 Changes in the seasonality of tropical precipitation in response to greenhouse gases   Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel   P2.81 The influence of large-scale westerly winds on Madden-Julian Oscillations   Lei Zhou, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Murtugudde, M. Jochum, and R. Neale   P2.82 The effect of ensemble-transform SST perturbations on tropical-cyclone track forecasts in a medium-range global NWP forecast ensemble   Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, J. Goerss, and M. Flatau   P2.83 Thermodynamics of Madden Julian Oscillation in a regional model with constrained moistening   Samson M. Hagos, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung and J. Dudhia   P2.84 Limit of Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation as a Stochastically-Driven Chaotic Oscillator   Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN   P2.85 Convective quasi-equilibrium revisited, part II: cloud resolving model simulations   Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond   P2.86 The evolution of tropical storm Gabrielle (2001)   Julie Kelly, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes and K. Dolling   P2.87 Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: The Impact of the Dynamical Core   Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and K. A. Reed   P2.88 Sensitivity of El Niño – Southern Oscillation to Madden Julian Oscillation   Atul Kapur, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang   P2.89 The impact of trade surges on the Madden–Julian Oscillation under different ENSO conditions   Ayako Seiki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, K. Yoneyama, and R. Shirooka   P2.90 Dry air layers observed over the central equatorial Indian Ocean   Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yasunaga and M. Katsumata   P2.91 Statistical comparison of scales and spatial distributions of convection in observational data and simulated hurricanes   Sam Trahan, NOAA/NCEP/EMC (UCAR), Camp Springs, MD; and L. C. Sparling, V. Tallapragada, S. A. Braun, and J. Halverson P2.92 Changes of tropical rain and associated Precipitation efficiency in tropical oceans in response to climate warming   Chung-Hsiung Sui, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan P2.93 Intense Orographic Precipitation Associated with Typhoon Talim (2005) in China   Yongqing Wang, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang, T. Song, and Z. Ding   P2.94 The Global 3-Dimensional Structure of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation   Scott Stuckman, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin and M. Davis   P2.95 The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves   Scott Stuckman, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin   P2.96 A simple coastline storm surge model based on pre-run SLOSH outputs   Liming Xu, FM Global, Norwood, MA   P2.97 The Global 3-Dimensional Structure of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation   Erik Fraza, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and S. Melaragno   P2.98 Tropical orographic rainfall regimes according to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission   Kimberly Reed, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt   P2.99 Convectively coupled gravity waves in the tropics: Why do most waves travel westward?   Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis   P2.100 Drag and enthalpy coefficients at major hurricane wind speeds   Michael M. Bell, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and K. Emanuel   P2.101 Improved Representations of Ice Cloud Microphysics for Hurricane Models   Greg M. McFarquhar, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Dooley, M. Freer, A. J. Heymsfield, P. Lawson, and A. Bansemer   P2.102 The impact of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on the climatology of the North American Southwest region   Kimberly M. Wood, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie P2.103 A fine-resolution, multiple-nested, WRF simulation of hurricane Gustav (2008)   F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball   P2.104 Tropical cyclone flow structure in the presence of elevated terrain   Brian J. Billings, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle   P2.105 Dominant intraseasonal variability modes over the eastern Pacific ITCZ and their representation in climate models   Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA & JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser P2.106 Impact of organized intraseasonal convective perturbations on the tropical circulation   Hugo Bellenger, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel   P2.107 EnKF Data Assimilation of dual-Doppler radar data from hurricane Guillermo   Humberto C. Godinez, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and A. O. Fierro and J. Reisner P2.108 OSSE experiments testing new data platforms for predicting tropical cyclones with an Ensemble Kalman Filter   Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Weng   P2.109 Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interactions on rainfall over the South China Sea during monsoon westerly wind bursts   Myung-Sook Park, NPS, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Ho and J. Kim   P2.110 Retrieval of hurricane turbulence parameters using airborne Doppler radar measurements   Sylvie Lorsolo, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, F. Marks, and P. Dodge   P2.111 The Fidelity of Tropical Cyclone Representation in Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets   PDF file Benjamin Schenkel, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart   P2.112 Moist Static Energy budget for Madden-Julian Oscillation like disturbances in Super-Parameterized CAM on an aquaplanet   Joseph Allan Andersen, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang P2.113 Cloud resolving simulations of an idealized intertropical convergence zone   David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. N. Tulich and B. E. Mapes   P2.114 Kinematic and microphysical aspects of mesovortices in Hurricane Ike (2008)   Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp   P2.115 A unified GPS dropsonde quality assurance and visualization software system   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Martin P2.116 Developmental Testbed Center support of the Hurricane WRF for community use   Steven Koch, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, N. Surgi, V. Tallapragada, Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, and L. Carson   P2.117 South Pacific Convergence Zone: A conduit for energy transport from the tropics to higher latitudes?   Matthew J. Widlansky, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia; and P. J. Webster and C. D. Hoyos   P2.118 A hierarchy of synthetic vortex initialization methods for tropical cyclones   Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, D. S. Nolan, and D. P. Stern   P2.119 An Integrated Modeling and Data Analysis Approach to Understanding Louisiana's Wetland Resilience to Hurricane Landfall   Pat Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau, J. Chen, A. Chawla, S. Shean, K. Hu, H. L. Tolman, R. R. Twilley, C. M. Hill, and J. E. Cable   P2.120 Sensitivity of the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone to small perturbations in initial input fields   R. J. Maliawco, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar and B. F. Jewett   P2.121 Tropical cyclone energy and power dissipation as a predictor of storm surge using ADCIRC   Angela Fritz, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry   P2.122 Vortical evolution of deep convection in idealized tropical disturbance environments   Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and P. D. Reasor   P2.124 Evaluation of the GFDL 25km resolution Global Atmospheric Model for tropical cyclone prediction   Jeffrey S. Gall, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and I. Ginis, S. J. Lin, and T. Marchok   P2.125 Description of HWRF Modeling System graphics and statistics for use as a diagnostic tool   Janna O'Connor, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC -SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, S. Trahan, H. Y. Chuang, W. M. Lapenta, and S. J. Lord   P2.126 Hurricane Isabel (2003) boundary layer characteristics and patterns using the Richardson number   Aaron Paget, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. H. Ruscher   P2.127 Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)   F. Joseph Turk, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Chao, Z. Haddad, S. Veleva, B. W. Knosp, B. H. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, W. L. Poulsen, S. Tanelli, D. G. Vane, Q. A. Vu, H. M. Goodman, R. J. Blakeslee, H. Conover, J. M. Hall, Y. M. He, and K. Regner   P2.128 Simulation of historical hurricane events using 20th Century Reanalysis   Robert E. Hart, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL   P2.129 Mesoscale gravity wave - convection coupling   Todd P. Lane, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and F. Zhang   P2.130 Characterization of momentum transport associated with organized moist convection and gravity waves   Todd P. Lane, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and M. W. Moncrieff   P2.131 Radar-observed eyewall tilt and three-dimensional winds of Hurricane Isabel (2003)   Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin   P2.132 What's New with the Online Textbook for Tropical Meteorology?   Arlene Laing, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Evans and M. Pope P2.133 The 8 May 2009 "super derecho": A land-hurricane?   Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO ; and C. Evans and L. F. Bosart   P2.134 Observed dispersion relation of mixed Rossby gravity waves and 17-day tropical instability waves in the Pacific Ocean   Toshiaki Shinoda, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS   P2.135 The Generation, Maintenance and Propagation of the Pre-Helene African Easterly Wave and Mesoscale Convective System Over Africa: A Numerical Study and Analysis of the Environment   James Spinks, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and G. Tang   P2.136 How well do coupled global climate models simulate convectively coupled equatorial waves?   Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and P. T. Haertel and G. N. Kiladis   P2.137 The community Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF): System description, forecast skill and Developmental Testbed Center support   Shaowu Bao, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, V. Tallapragada, N. Surgi, Y. C. Kwon, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, C. Harrop, L. Carson, D. Stark, S. Trahan, B. Lapenta, S. Koch, and B. Kuo   P2.138 Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Coastal WSR-88D Radar Data and Forecasting for Hurricane Ike (2008)   Jili Dong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue   P2.139 A statistical method for modeling tropical cyclone activity   Mary M. Louie, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and G. Ljung   P2.140 Sensitivity of a parametric hurricane model to different wind profiles   Ioana M. Dima, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and T. Doggett and P. Dailey   P2.141 The role of the asymmetric mode in a turbulent regime   Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. M. Reisner P2.142 Numerical Simulations of the Formation of Hurricane Fred (2009)   Sen Chiao, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and G. Jenkins   P2.143 Multidecadal oscillations in tropical ocean and land temperatures   Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia; and P. Webster, H. R. Chang, and J. A. Curry   P2.144 Initialization and Prediction of Hurricane Ike via Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Radial Velocity Observations using the ARPS 3DVAR   Ningzhu Du, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, OK; and M. Xue   P2.145 Tropical thick anvil   Wei Li, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Schumacher   P2.146 A STUDY OF OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC INTERACTIONS AND HURRICANE PREDICTIVE INDEX (HPI) ASSOCIATED WITH LAND FALLING HURRICANE CHARLEY   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and D. Lu   P2.147 NASA Goddard GES DISC Data Services for Supporting Hurricane Research and YOTC   Zhong Liu, George Mason University/CSISS, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Leptoukh, D. Ostrenga, and D. E. Waliser   P2.148 Numerical weather prediction and tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Caribbean using MM5 and ARPS. Case studies of hurricane Dean (2007), Omar (2008) and Paloma (2008)   Daniel Martinez, Cuban Meteorological Service, Cuba; and I. Mitrani, I. Borrajero, E. M. Hicks, and C. A. Pontikis   P2.149 Observed variability of the East Pacific ITCZ   Caroline L. Bain, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir, P. Smyth, and H. Stern P2.151 Wind data collected by a fixed-wing aircraft in the vicinity of a typhoon over the south China coastal waters   P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China   P2.152 Neap-spring tidal patterns in Atlantic tropical cyclones   Peter H. Yaukey, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA   P2.153 An observatinal and numerical study of the boundary layer processes during the intensification of Hurricane Bill (2009)   Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, S. Lorsolo, R. Rogers, E. Uhlhorn, J. J. Cione, J. Dunion, J. Kaplan, K. Yeh, X. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, T. Quirino, J. Cangialosi, and F. Marks   P2.151 Predictability and dynamics of a vertically-sheared tropical storm   Recorded presentation Thomas S. Hinson, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, Y. Weng, J. Wei, and R. F. Rogers P2.150 Short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting in tropical watersheds   Mark T. Stoelinga, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA
	8:00 PM-9:00 PM, Thursday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session Special Session on TY Morakot: Large-scale and Mesoscale characteristics followed by a discussion on the scientific, social, and political impacts of the typhoon-related disaster.
Chair: C.-C. Wu, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei Taiwan
8:00 PM .1 A diagnosis of the extreme rainfall associated with the typhoon Morakot in southern Taiwan: Roles of submonthly disturbance and 40-50-day ISO   Recorded presentation H. H. Hsu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Hong and M. Y. Lee 8:15 PM .2 Improved Goddard Microphysics for simulating Typhoon Morakot 2009   Wei-Kuo Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Shi, P. L. Lin, and J. Y. Chen
Friday, 14 May 2010
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 15A Tropical Climatology and Climate Change I
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 15A.1 Response of idealized Walker circulations and zonal surface temperature gradients to changes in longwave radiation   Recorded presentation Timothy M. Merlis, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and T. Schneider 8:15 AM 15A.2 Climatology of cloud properties and radiative heating profiles at tropical ACRF sites   Recorded presentation Sally McFarlane, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and J. M. Comstock, L. Riihimaki, and J. Flaherty 8:30 AM 15A.3 The impact of future climate change on TC intensity and structure: A downscaling study   Recorded presentation Kevin A. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann 8:45 AM 15A.4 The association of outgoing radiation with variations of precipitation – implications for global warming   Recorded presentation William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz 9:00 AM 15A.5 Model projected impact of Anthropogenic warming on late 21st century intense Atlantic hurricane activity   Recorded presentation Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. R. Knutson, R. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner, and I. M. Held 9:15 AM 15A.6 The Global Warming Events in the Past 60 years   Michael Davis, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and S. Stuckman 9:30 AM 15A.7 Atlantic hurricanes and climate change: Projection of a peak month in a future record hurricane season   Recorded presentation Megan S. Gentry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 15B Convectively Coupled Waves I
Chair: Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba Japan
8:00 AM 15B.1 On the relationship between convective activity and easterly waves over Tropical North Africa: a weather state perspective   Recorded presentation Ademe Mekonnen, NOAA-CREST Center, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow 8:15 AM 15B.2 An observational study of transient - mean flow interactions over West Africa   Recorded presentation Nicholas M. J. Hall, LEGOS, University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France 8:30 AM 15B.3 Intermittent african easterly waves in a simple GCM   Recorded presentation Stephanie Leroux, NOAA, Boulder, CO 8:45 AM 15B.4 Interactions between the ITCZ and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves   Recorded presentation Juliana Dias, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and O. Pauluis 9:00 AM 15B.5 Tropical cyclogenesis within a Kelvin wave   Recorded presentation Carl J. Schreck III, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 9:15 AM 15B.6 Extratropical forcing of convectively coupled equatorial wave activity   Recorded presentation George Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Biello and K. H. Straub 9:30 AM 15B.7 The excitation of equatorial Kelvin waves by extratropical Rossby Waves   Recorded presentation Joseph A. Biello, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and G. N. Kiladis
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 15C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: High-Resolution Modeling II
Chair: Shuyi Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 15C.1 The overland reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007): physical and dynamical characteristics   Recorded presentation Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and T. J. Galarneau Jr. 8:15 AM 15C.2 Influences of the diurnal cycle and the low-level jet on the inland reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007)   Recorded presentation Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Evans and T. J. Galarneau Jr. 8:30 AM 15C.3 On the rapid intensification of hurricane Wilma (2005)   Recorded presentation Hua Chen, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 8:45 AM 15C.4 Evaluation of the Surface Wind Field in a High-Resolution Simulation of the Landfall of Hurricane Wilma (2005) by Comparison to In Situ Wind Measurements   Recorded presentation David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, M. D. Powell, and F. J. Masters 9:00 AM 15C.5 Improving regional high resolution hurricane forecasts through data assimilation and diagnostic verification with satellite observations   Tomislava Vukicevic, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. Dunion, A. Aksoy, F. D. Marks Jr., S. G. Gopalakrishnan, S. D. Aberson, and M. van Lier-Walqui 9:15 AM 15C.6 Analysis of NRL COAMPS simulated boundary layer of Hurricane Isabel (2003)   Recorded presentation Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, P. Black, and J. Zhang 9:30 AM 15C.7 Analysis of the intensity, structure and precipitation in high-resolution numerical simulations of Typhoon Morakot   Recorded presentation Jonty D. Hall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and L. M. Leslie
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 15D Probabilistic Forecasting
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
8:00 AM 15D.1 Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data   Recorded presentation Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Matsueda 8:15 AM 15D.2 Verification of the National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone Intensity Probabilities and Future Plans   Recorded presentation Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. Knabb, and M. DeMaria 8:30 AM 15D.3 A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model ensemble   Recorded presentation Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. Bowyer and R. Knabb 8:45 AM 15D.4 Storm surge probability forecasts for Hurricane Ike   Recorded presentation Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome and A. A. Taylor 9:00 AM 15D.5 On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities   Recorded presentation Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. M. Finocchio, J. S. Goerss, and J. Hansen 9:15 AM 15D.6 Understanding probabilistic forecasting and verification in tropical cyclones   Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 9:30 AM 15D.7 Objective tropical cyclone warning guidance using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities   Recorded presentation Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and D. P. Brown
	8:30 AM-10:30 AM, Friday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Arizona Ballroom 6 Session 16A Tropical Climatology and Climate Change II
Chair: Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
10:15 AM 16A.1 States of Tropical Convection and their Relationship to SST Variability   Recorded presentation Christian Jakob, Monash University, Melbourne., Victoria, Australia; and M. S. Singh and C. Schumacher 10:30 AM 16A.2 An objective climatology of tropical plumes   Luise Froehlich, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and P. Knippertz and A. H. Fink 10:45 AM 16A.3 Historical contribution of African dust outbreaks to northern tropical Atlantic temperatures   Recorded presentation Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. Mukhopadhyay 11:00 AM 16A.4 Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol in the tropics and its relationship with the hydrological cycle   Manuel D. Zuluaga, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry 11:15 AM 16A.5 The ITCZ, easterly wave generation, equatorial westerlies: A common solution for some fundamental questions in the tropics   Recorded presentation Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 11:30 AM 16A.6 The Neutral Phases of ENSO: Are They Really Neutral?   Scott Melaragno, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and E. Fraza 11:45 AM 16A.7 Climate mechanisms responsible for the dramatic decline in global tropical cyclone activity   Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University & Naval Research Laboratory - Monterey, Tallahassee, FL
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Arizona Ballroom 2-5 Session 16B Convectively Coupled Waves II
Chair: George N. Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
10:15 AM 16B.1 Convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the basic state   Recorded presentation Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Riley, G. N. Kiladis, and B. Mapes 10:30 AM 16B.2 A simple dynamical model with features of convective momentum transport   Recorded presentation Andrew J. Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and S. N. Stechmann 10:45 AM 16B.3 Equatorially trapped waves in a background meridional shear   Recorded presentation Maryam Namazi, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider 11:00 AM 16B.4 Convectively coupled gravity waves and moisture modes with top and bottom heavy vertical heating profiles   Recorded presentation Zeljka Fuchs, University of Split, Split, Croatia; and D. Raymond and S. Gjorgjievska 11:15 AM 16B.5 Convectively coupled Kelvin waves and moisture modes in 3-D simulations   Recorded presentation Saska Gjorgjievska, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs and D. Raymond 11:30 AM 16B.6 Interaction between the moist Kelvin wave and WIG waves observed during MISMO field experiment (2006)   Recorded presentation Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and Y. N. Takayabu 11:45 AM 16B.7 Model study of intermediate-scale tropical inertia gravity waves and comparison to TWP-ICE campaign observations   Recorded presentation Stephanie Evan, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Alexander and J. Dudhia
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Arizona Ballroom 10-12 Session 16C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Structure and Intensity II
Chair: Robert G. Fovell, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA
10:15 AM 16C.1 Re-analysis/prediction of Typhoon Vera (1959) Project: ReVera -Isewan Typhoon like a Katrina hitting Japan 50 years ago-   Recorded presentation Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa, H. Kamahori, E. Shindo, M. Hara, T. Kawabata, M. Kunii, and N. Kohno 10:30 AM 16C.2 Idealized tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models: sensitivity to convective parameterizations   Recorded presentation Kevin A. Reed, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski 10:45 AM 16C.3 The impact of lightning data assimilation on WRF simulations of Typhoon Jangmi (2008)   Recorded presentation Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and A. T. Pessi and S. Businger 11:00 AM 16C.4a Comparison of secondary eyewall and principal rainband in Hurricane Rita (2005) as observed in RAINEX   Anthony C. Didlake Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. 11:15 AM 16C.5 On the evolution of unstable large-Rossby-number vortices in shear   Recorded presentation David Ross Ryglicki, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. D. Reasor 11:30 AM 16C.6 Assimilation of GBVTD-derived Winds from Single-Doppler Radar for the Short-term Forecasting of Super Typhoon Saomai (0608) at Landfall   Kun Zhao, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and W. C. Lee 11:45 AM 16C.7 Sensitivity of hurricane tilt evolution to outer-core profile   Recorded presentation Paul D. Reasor, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Tucson Salon A-C Session 16D Tropical Cyclone Lightning: Observation and Intensity Change
Chair: Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam
10:15 AM 16D.1 Evolution of convective events as indicated by total lightning within three major hurricanes during periods of rapid intensification   Recorded presentation Alexandre Olivier Fierro, LANL, Los ALamos, NM; and X. Shao, J. Reisner, T. D. Hamlin, and J. D. Harlin 10:30 AM 16D.2 Validation of Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) over the continental United States   Recorded presentation Nicholas W. S. Demetriades, Vaisala, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and M. J. Murphy and J. A. Cramer 10:45 AM 16D.3 Eyewall lightning outbreaks and tropical cyclone intensity change   Recorded presentation Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Knabb, N. W. S. Demetriades, and R. L. Holle 11:00 AM 16D.4 Assessment of synoptic and microphysical parameters related to lightning in tropical cyclones and storm intensification   Recorded presentation Marcus D. Austin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Fuelberg 11:15 AM 16D.5 The role of convection in determining tropical cyclone genesis in the eastern North Pacific   Recorded presentation Lesley A. Leary, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie 11:30 AM 16D.6 Polarity and energetics of inner core lightning in three intense North Atlantic hurricanes   Recorded presentation Jeremy N. Thomas, Digipen Institute of Technology, Redmond, WA; and N. N. Solorzano, S. A. Cummer, and R. H. Holzworth 11:45 AM 16D.7 Investigating intensity change in Cyclone Nargis using lightning activity and environmental data   Recorded presentation Natalia N. Solorzano, Digipen Institute of Technology, Redmond, WA; and J. N. Thomas, R. H. Holzworth, and C. J. Rodger
	12:00 PM-12:05 PM, Friday Conference Adjourns