Program: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics (88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008))

19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Program Chairs: Richard W. Katz , NCAR ; Cecile Penland , NOAA/CIRES/CDC

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Sunday, 20 January 2008

7:30 AM-9:30 AM: Sunday, 20 January 2008

Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 20 January 2008

Conference Registration

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 20 January 2008

7th Annual WeatherFest

Location: Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Monday, 21 January 2008

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Registration continues through Thursday, 24 January

9:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing I

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Chairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia; David W. Titley, Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Papers:

9:00 AM

1.1

Impact of a stochastic perturbation scheme on global ensemble forecast

Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and W. Yang

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (201.4 kB)

9:15 AM

1.2

Medium-range ensemble forecasting with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter and JMA bred- and singular-vector EPS

Takemasa Miyoshi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and R. Sakai, M. Yamaguchi, and Y. Sato

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

1.3

Assessing Predictability of Atmospheric Predictability with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and I. Szunyogh

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (595.9 kB)

9:45 AM

1.4

Ensemble forecasts based on ET with rescaling

Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (297.4 kB)

10:00 AM

1.5

Objective Analysis Using Modelled Correlation Structure

Albert R. Boehm, retired, Huntsville, AL

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (109.3 kB)

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Coffee Break (Mon a.m.)

10:45 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing II

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Chairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia; David W. Titley, Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Papers:

10:45 AM

2.1

Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds

Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; and L. Stanberry, E. P. Grimit, and N. A. Johnson

11:00 AM

2.2

Ensemble based probabilistic forecast verification

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (171.0 kB)

11:15 AM

2.3

Calibration of Probabilistic ECMWF and GFS Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Using Reforecasts

Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. Hagedorn and J. Whitaker

Recorded presentation

2.4

Assumed PDF reforecasting

11:45 AM-1:30 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Opening Plenary Session Featuring Mayor Nagin of New Orleans (Cash & Carry Lunch)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing III

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Chairs: Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL; Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University

Papers:

1:30 PM

3.1

Combined approaches for ensemble post-processing

Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

3.2

A regime-dependent bias correction approach

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

3.3

Probabilistic ensemble MOS forecasts of a continuous variable

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Peroutka, J. R. Wiedenfeld, J. Wagner, and B. Jackson

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

2:15 PM

3.4

Probability forecasts for water levels at the coast of the Netherlands

Hans De Vries, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

http://www.knmi.nl/~jwdv/WAQUA/EPS/

Recorded presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Joint Poster Session 1

Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium; and the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

Cochairs: Robert Hart, Florida State University; C.�cile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/PSD3; Richard W. Katz, NCAR

Papers:

JP1.1

Reduction of boundary layer dropsonde winds to estimate surface winds and their comparison with SFMR data in landfalling Hurricane Katrina

Richard G. Henning, Consulting Meteorologist, Niceville, FL

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

JP1.2

National Hurricane Center forecast verification

James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL

JP1.3

Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Convey Forecast Uncertainty and Potential Impact through NWS Field Office Forecast Products

Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. W. Sharp, G. Rader, and M. Volkmer

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

JP1.4

The Hurricane Severity Index � A New Way of Estimating a Tropical Cyclone's Destructive Potential

Chris Hebert, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and B. Weinzapfel and M. Chambers

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

JP1.5

Development of a new storm surge index for prediction of storm surge associated with landfalling tropical cyclones

Mark R. Jordan II, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. A. Clayson

JP1.6

The accuracy of the slosh model in predicting the flooding of the chesapeake bay region during Hurricane Isabel

Kathleen Nicole Inde, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith

Poster PDF (895.9 kB)

JP1.7

Using uncertainty information to improve hurricane impact communication

Barry S. Goldsmith, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL; and R. J. Ricks Jr.

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

JP1.8

Radiance assimilation in a mesoscale model for improving Hurricane Track Forecast

Zhiquan Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Lin, D. Barker, and J. Xu

JP1.9

Deconstructing the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling methodology for tropical cyclones

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

JP1.10

Impact of GPS Radio Occultation Observations on Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Storms

Hui Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anderson, Y. H. Kuo, Y. Chen, and C. Snyder

JP1.11

Hurricane Initialization Using TOMS Ozone Data

Yonghui Wu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

JP1.12

Observing System Experiments for Three Targeting Techniques in the Atlantic Basin

S. D. Aberson, AOML/Hurricane Research, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds

JP1.13

Use of radar data for TC initialization and intensity forecasts

Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, W. Lee, and W. Wang

JP1.14

A preferred scale for warm core instability in a non-convective moist basic state

Brian H. Kahn, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. M. Sinton

Poster PDF (643.4 kB)

JP1.15

Secondary eyewall formation in two idealized, full-physics modeled hurricanes

Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

JP1.16

Comparison of deep convection in the outer rainbands of landfalling hurricanes: Tornadic and nontornadic cells and their local environments

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and M. C. Link, H. B. Anderson, and M. D. Parker

JP1.17

Multiscale variability of the internal structure of Hurricane Isabel during landfall

Renee Curry, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff

JP1.18

Physical processes associated with surface wind field uncertainty in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005): Use of present and future observational tools

Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, R. D. Knabb, J. Carswell, P. S. Chang, S. Lorsolo, R. E. Hood, L. Jones, I. PopStefanija, and A. S. Goldstein

JP1.19

The overland intensification of Tropical Depression Erin: assessment and mesoscale observation

Derek S. Arndt, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and G. D. McManus, B. G. Illston, J. B. Basara, D. B. Demko, and R. A. McPherson

JP1.20

2004 Hurricane Danielle Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasting Study Using the NCAR Advanced Research WRF Model

Nelsie A. Ramos, NOAA/Center for Atmospheric Sciences and Howard University, Washington, DC

JP1.21

Multimodel comparison study for hurricane case

Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Reddy and Q. L. Williams

JP1.22

WRF-NMM model case studies for the AMMA project during the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Jamese D. Sims, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

JP1.23

Numerical simulation of extreme wind gusts assocaited with a landfalling tropical cyclone

JP1.24

WRF forecasts/simulations of Tropical cyclones Debby and Helene during the SOP-3 NAMMA/AMMA field campaign

Gregory S. Jenkins, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and S. Chiao and M. Cox

JP1.25

Sensitive experiments of changing vertical levels in numerical weather prediction model on tropical cyclone

LianTang Deng, China Meterological Administration, Beijing, China

Poster PDF (244.3 kB)

JP1.26

Diagnosing Transport and Mixing in Unstable Barotropic Hurricane-like Vortices

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. H. Schubert

JP1.27

Correlating Convective Bursts in Tropical Cyclones with Rapid Intensification using TRMM Precipitation Radar Reflectivity Profiles

Andrew B. Hagen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; and R. Rogers

Poster PDF (505.5 kB)

JP1.28

Angular momentum and cloud torques in TCs: An airborne Doppler radar perspective

Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. D. Reasor and T. N. Krishnamurti

JP1.29

Determining surface winds from doppler radar data during hurricane passages over Florida

Philip D. Hayes, Northrop Grumman, Chantilly, VA; and H. E. Fuelberg and R. E. Hart

JP1.30

Predicting hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: Nexrad-in-space (NIS) and its potential impact

William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, E. A. Smith, S. Tanelli, and E. Im

JP1.31

Assimilation of Multi-Satellite Data in Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and X. Li

JP1.32

Superensemble forecasts of hurricane intensity from a suite of mesoscale models

Melanie Kramer, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

JP1.33

Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasting via Microphysical Parameterization Methods in a Mesoscale Model

Cerese Marie Albers, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti

JP1.34

The experimental graphical tropical weather outlook

Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, J. L. Franklin, C. W. Landsea, C. Lauer, and C. Juckins

JP1.35

Multimodel approach based on evidence theory for forecasting hurricane/typhoon tracks: further improvements

JP1.36

Wind speed-damage correlation in Hurricane Katrina

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

JP1.37

Network analysis of U.S. hurricanes

JP1.38

Evaluation of the surface wind fields of the GFDL coupled forecast for Hurricane Ivan using H*Wind Analysis

Isha M. Renta-L�pez, Howard University, Washington, DC; and M. D. Powell and V. Morris

JP1.39

Parameterized wind gusts associated with a severe landfalling tropical cyclone

Hamish A. Ramsay, NASA GISS/ Columbia University, New York, New York; and L. M. Leslie and M. L. M. Wong

JP1.40

The uncertainty in wave characteristics and tropical cyclogenesis prediction

Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Peng and C. Reynolds

JP1.41

Eye & eyewall climatology derived from reconnaissance vortex reports and their use toward using an eyewall phase diagram to improve hurricane intensity forecasts

David Joseph Piech, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

JP1.42

Defining uncertainty in hurricane maximum surface wind estimation

Stephanie Ann Mullins, University of Louisiana - Monroe, Monroe, LA; and P. G. Black, C. S. Velden, M. D. Powell, E. W. Uhlhorn, T. Olander, A. Burton, and J. L. Beven II

JP1.43

Improved Measures of Hurricane Hurricane Destructive Potential Based on Integrated Kinetic Energy

Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (mon p.m.)

Location: Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing IV

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Chairs: Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL; Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University

Papers:

4:00 PM

4.1

Storm of the Century? Insights from a massive ensemble forecast experiment

Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and R. G. Fovell

Recorded presentation

4:15 PM

4.2

Algorithm and Sensitivity Analysis of Information-Theoretic Ensemble-Based Observation Targeting

Han-Lim Choi, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. P. How and J. Hansen

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (395.3 kB)

4:30 PM

4.3

Skill-based consolidation of multi-model ensembles using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and ensemble regression

Dan C. Collins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. A. Unger and E. A. O'Lenic

Recorded presentation

4:45 PM

4.4

Accounting for wind energy forecast uncertainty

Eric P. Grimit, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and C. Potter

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

4.5

Bayesian Processor of Ensemble: Concept and Development

Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

5:15 PM

4.6

Conditional Dependence and Sufficient Statistics of an Ensemble

Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Location: Exhibit Hall A (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

7:00 PM-8:30 PM: Monday, 21 January 2008

Special Session on Assessing Diversity among Geoscientists

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Chair: Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Papers:

7:00 PM

5.1

Distinguishing between signal and noise in diversity data

Roman Czujko, American Institute of Physics, College Park, MD

Recorded presentation

7:30 PM

5.2

Statistical analysis of survey data related to gender issues among academic AMS members

Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and J. A. Winkler

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (89.7 kB)

8:00 PM

Discussion

Tuesday, 22 January 2008

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Joint Session 3

Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics 1

Location: R02-R03 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium; and the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

Chair: Richard W. Katz, NCAR

Papers:

8:30 AM

J3.1

Global warming, U.S. hurricanes, and insured losses

James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger

http://garnet.fsu.edu/~jelsner/www

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (388.4 kB)

9:00 AM

J3.2

Changes in number and intensity of tropical cyclones

William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J3.3

Recurving tropical cyclones and downstream impacts as revealed by singular vectors

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng and J. H. Chen

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

J3.4

Inter-comparison of Targeted Observation Guidances for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. H. Chen, M. S. Peng, S. J. Majumdar, C. A. Reynolds, R. Buizza, M. Yamaguchi, S. Aberson, P. H. Lin, T. Nakazawa, K. H. Chou, and S. G. Chen

Recorded presentation

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Tue a.m.)

Location: Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Joint Session 4

Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics 2

Location: R02-R03 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium; and the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

CoChair: C.�cile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/PSD3

Papers:

11:00 AM

J4.1

EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY IN NEAR-TERM ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY

Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and G. Zuba, G. Ljung, and J. Guin

Recorded presentation

11:15 AM

J4.2

Inherent uncertainties in hurricane prediction

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Recorded presentation

11:30 AM

J4.3

An information-theoretic approach to quantifying the uncertainty in operational tropical cyclone intensity predictions, with application to forecast verification

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (50.4 kB)

11:45 AM

J4.4

Operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability products from the National Hurricane Center

Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Mainelli and M. DeMaria

Recorded presentation

11:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Exhibits Open (Tuesday)

Location: Exhibit Hall A (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Presidental Forum: Hurricane Katrina: Looking Back to Look Ahead (Cash & Carry) (Presidental Forum will run parallel to the other sessions throughout the afternoon)

Location: La Louisiane (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Statistical Climatology

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Chairs: C.�cile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/PSD3; Elise V. Johnson, Univ. of Alabama

Papers:

1:45 PM

6.2

On the proper order of Markov chain for precipitation occurrence

J.T. Schoof, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL; and S. C. Pryor

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

6.3

Regression-based methods for finding coupled patterns

Michael K. Tippett, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole, S. J. Mason, and A. G. Barnston

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (904.6 kB)

2:15 PM

Paper 6.4 moved. New Paper Number 10.1A

2:30 PM

6.5

The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks

Ashton Robinson Cook, NOAA/NWS SPC, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer

Recorded presentation

2:45 PM

6.6

Balancing the Earth's radiation budget

G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (281.3 kB)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall (tues p.m.)

Location: Exhibit Hall A (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Probability Forecasting

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace; Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

Papers:

3:30 PM

7.1

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database

Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and W. B. Evans

3:45 PM

7.2

The Role of Climatic Autocorrelation in Probabilistic Forecasting

Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and W. B. Evans

4:00 PM

7.3

Mining �Optimal� Conditions for Rapid Intensifications of Tropical Cyclones

Ruixin Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and J. Tang and M. Kafatos

Poster PDF (72.9 kB)

4:15 PM

7.4

Probabilistic guidance for hurricane storm surge

Arthur A. Taylor, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (198.1 kB)

7.5

GFS-Based MOS Opaque Sky Cover Guidance for the Contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

4:45 PM

7.6

Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting in a Coupled Ensemble Framework

Jonathan M. Hobbs, Iowa State University, Ames, IA

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

7.7

Developing a peak wind probability forecast tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Winifred C. Lambert, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and D. A. Short and W. P. Roeder

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (289.7 kB)

Wednesday, 23 January 2008

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Joint Session 3

Bridging the Gap between Artificial Intelligence and Statistics in Applications to Environmental Science-I

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the Sixth Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science )

Chairs: Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School

Papers:

8:30 AM

J3.1

Quantile Regression

Caren Marzban, University of Washington/APL, Seattle, WA

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

J3.2

Improving Bayesian neural network predictions of N. American seasonal climate by correcting for extrapolations

Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh, A. J. Cannon, and A. Shabbar

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

J3.3

Neural Network Compound Parameterization with a Quality Control of Larger Errors for Robust and Fast Calculation of Physical Processes in Numerical Environmental Models

Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, NCEP/NWS/NOAA (SAIC), Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Fox-Rabinovitz, H. L. Tolman, and A. A. Belochitski

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

J3.4

An Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Thunderstorm Location: Performance Enhancement Attempts

Waylon G. Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (522.1 kB)

9:45 AM

J3.5

Statistical modeling of tornadic and non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks

Andrew E. Mercer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. M. Shafer, L. M. Leslie, M. B. Richman, and C. A. Doswell III

Recorded presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Coffee Break (Wed a.m.)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Joint Session 4

Bridging the Gap between Artificial Intelligence and Statistics in Applications to Environmental Science-II

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the Sixth Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science )

Chairs: Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School

Papers:

10:30 AM

J4.1

Data Requirements for Assimilating Concentration Data with a Genetic Algorithm

Sue Ellen Haupt, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and K. J. Long, G. Young, and A. Beyer-Lout

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (873.2 kB)

10:45 AM

J4.2

A Cloud Detection Algorithm Applied to a Whole Sky Imager Instrument using Neural Networks

Andy Linfoot, Northrop Grumman IT/TASC, Chantilly, VA; and R. Alliss

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (565.0 kB)

11:00 AM

J4.3

Development of an automated approach for identifying convective storm types using reflectivity and near-storm environment data

Steven A. Lack, NOAA/ESRL/GSD/CIRES Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and N. I. Fox

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (261.0 kB)

11:15 AM

J4.4

A Bayesian framework for storm tracking using a hidden-state representation

Lucas Scharenbroich, University of California, Irvine, CA; and C. C. Wang, H. Stern, P. Smyth, and G. Magnusdottir

11:30 AM

J4.5

Multivariate cluster analysis for automated identification of precipitating weather systems

Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

J4.6

Automated Classification of Convective Areas from Radar Reflectivity Using Decision Trees

David John Gagne II, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern and J. Brotzge

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (551.8 kB)

11:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Exhibits Open (wednesday)

Location: Exhibit Hall A (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Lunch Break (Cash & Carry in Exhibit Hall) (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Forecast Evaluation I

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR

Papers:

1:30 PM

8.1

The value of information map: a tool for combining statistical and economic metrics of forecast quality

Arthur A. Small III, Venti Risk Management, State College, PA

Recorded presentation

1:45 PM

8.2

Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts

J. Eric Bickel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. D. Kim

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (396.2 kB)

2:00 PM

8.3

The accuracy of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia

Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

http://www.bom.gov.au

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

8.4

Another look at proper scoring rules for probability forecasts

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Poster Session 1

Posters: Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Location: Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Papers:

P1.1

Limitations of an observations-based system for ultra-short-term forecasts

Joby Hilliker, West Chester University, West Chester, PA; and G. Akasapu and G. S. Young

Poster PDF (154.6 kB)

P1.2

Integration of aerosols and meteorological data sets into a neural network system

Pawan Gupta, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. A. Christopher

P1.3

Composites of tornadic and non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks

Andrew E. Mercer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. M. Shafer, L. M. Leslie, M. B. Richman, and C. A. Doswell III

P1.4

Developing the Local 3 Month Precipitation Outlook

Jenna C. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Timofeyeva, D. A. Unger, and A. C. Comrie

P1.5

Evaporation monthly time series stochastic generation in semiarid region of Northeast Brazil

Francisco de Assis Salviano de Sousa Sr., Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Para�ba, Brazil; and A. M. T. D. Medeiros Sr. and B. B. D. Silva

P1.6

A numerical simulation study of a meso-beta scale heavy rainfall over Korea using the WRF model

Ji-Woo Lee, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong

P1.7

Analysis of Variations in United States Tornado Warning Performance

P1.8

The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles

Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. V. Durante and A. I. Watson

P1.9

Using Gumbel distribution to estimate return intervals for extreme wind events for Alaska and Hawaii

O. Francis-Chythlook, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and D. E. Atkinson

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (wednesday p.m.)

Location: Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Forecast Evaluation II

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR

Papers:

4:00 PM

9.1

Intercomparison of spatial verification methods

D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. Brown, E. Ebert, L. Holland, and C. Davis

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/icp/

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (285.0 kB)

4:15 PM

9.2

An assessment of forecast performance using Model Evaluation Tools (MET)

Lacey Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Halley Gotway, B. G. Brown, D. A. Ahijevych, E. Gilleland, and L. B. Nance

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

9.3

Applying a Procrustes shape analysis verification scheme to nowcast ensemble forecast members to determine accuracy of diagnosed convective mode

Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. A. Lack and A. Micheas

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (726.8 kB)

4:45 PM

9.4

Observing verification trends and applying a methodology to probabilistic precipitation forecasts at a National Weather Service forecast office

Sam Lashley, NOAA/NWSFO, Syracuse, IN; and A. Lammers, L. Fisher, R. Simpson, J. Taylor, S. Weisser, and J. Logsdon

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (826.5 kB)

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) (Wednesday)

Location: Exhibit Hall A (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 23 January 2008

AMS Annual Awards Banquet at the Hilton Riverside Hotel

Thursday, 24 January 2008

8:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 24 January 2008

Climate Forecasting

Location: 219 (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Sponsor: 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Laurence J. Wilson, MSC; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

10.1

Improved statistical seasonal forecasts using extended training data

9:00 AM

10.1A

Looking for patterns in global sea surface temperatures and North American fire danger with positive matrix factorization

Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, Nevada; and J. R. Banta and B. L. Hall

Recorded presentation

9:15 AM

10.2

Robust nonlinear canonical correlation analysis for seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

Alex J. Cannon, Meteorological Service of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh

Recorded presentation

9:30 AM

10.3

Forecast error dynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system

Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

9:45 AM

10.4

A Probabilistic Climatic Model for Predicting Seasonal Rainfall in Paraiba State, Brazil

Bernardo Barbosa da Silva, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil; and F. D. A. S. Souza, V. D. P. R. Silva, and C. C. Braga