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Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 31 May 2009
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday, Grand Ballroom Foyer Registration Opens
Monday, 1 June 2009
	7:30 AM-5:30 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom Foyer Registration Continues Throughout the Conference
	8:45 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Grand Ballroom East Session 1A Real-Time Modeling and Analysis
CoChair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN
8:45 AM Welcoming Remarks   9:00 AM 1A.1 Challenges with the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pondeca 9:15 AM 1A.2 Real-Time High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts for Incident Meteorologists   Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX 9:30 AM 1A.3 Realtime high-resolution mesoscale modeling for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency   David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. K. Hunter, A. Deng, J. R. Zielonka, K. Dedrick, C. Broadwater, A. Grose, C. Pavloski, and J. Toffler 9:45 AM 1A.4 Real-time testing and description of the FIM global model   Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Lee, R. Bleck, J. W. Bao, A. E. MacDonald, J. M. Brown, T. Henderson, J. Middlecoff, C. Harrop, N. Wang, W. Moninger, G. Grell, S. Sahm, and B. Jamison
	8:45 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Grand Ballroom West Session 1B High Impact Weather Part I
CoChair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO Moderator: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Kelly Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
8:45 AM Welcoming Remarks   9:00 AM 1B.1 Have New England heat waves been influenced by forest cover trends?   Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow 9:15 AM 1B.2 Discrete Frontal Propagation over the Sierra–Cascade Mountains and Intermountain West   W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Neuman, G. L. West, and L. F. Bosart 9:30 AM 1B.3 Life cycle and mesoscale frontal structure of an Intermountain cyclone   Gregory L. West, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh 9:45 AM 1B.4 The historic flash flood event of 18-19 August 2007 in the Upper Mississippi River Valley: impacts of terrain and societal response   Seth Binau, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom East Session 2A Model Overviews and Recent Updates
CoChair: W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN
10:30 AM 2A.1 WRF Reference Configurations   Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, and B. G. Brown 10:45 AM 2A.2 Renovation of JMA-GSM   Kengo Miyamoto, AESTO/JMA, Tokyo, Japan 11:00 AM 2A.3 Overview of NRL's mesoscale modeling system and research   James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, S. Chen, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, E. Hendricks, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, P. May, J. E. Nachamkin, L. W. O'Neill, P. A. Reinecke, J. M. Schmidt, W. T. Thompson, and S. Wang 11:15 AM 2A.4 The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System : Recent changes and future plans   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, T. Black, M. Ek, B. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Z. Janjic, Y. Lin, M. Pyle, V. Wong, W. S. Wu, and J. Carley 11:30 AM 2A.5 Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction   William M. Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, J. Ward, G. DiMego, H. L. Tolman, J. C. Derber, H. L. Pan, N. Surgi, Z. Toth, and M. Ek 11:45 AM 2A.6 The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP   Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and M. Iredell
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom West Session 2B High Impact Weather Part II
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
10:30 AM 2B.1 Development of an Alpine lee cyclone during MAP D-PHASE: forcings for cyclogeneis   R. McTaggart-Cowan, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and T. J. Galarneau and L. F. Bosart 10:45 AM 2B.2 Storms on the rock: Synoptic-scale characteristics and typing of cool-season precipitation events at St. John's, Newfoundland (1979-2005)   Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum 11:00 AM 2B.3 An Analysis of a High Impact 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season   Matthew Scalora, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, N. A. Stuart, and T. A. Wasula 11:15 AM 2B.4 A downslope windstorm in New Jersey? An analysis of the 4 January 2009 high-wind event   Steven G. Decker, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and D. A. Robinson and N. Stefano 11:30 AM 2B.5 Meteorological analysis of an extreme Beaufort coastal storm surge event   John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Small and E. Atallah 11:45 AM 2B.6 Analysis of model forecasts of maximum temperature before and after cold front passages in the southern plains   Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom East Session 3A Data Assimilation: Overview
CoChair: Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK Chair: Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA
1:30 PM 3A.1 (Invited talk) Assimilation of satellite data in improving high-impact weather forecasting: Progress, Challenge and Development   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 2:00 PM 3A.2 Full OSSEs with International Collaboration   Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Masutani, J. S. Woollen, N. Prive, Y. Xie, L. Cucurull, A. Stoffelen, G. J. Marseille, G. D. Emmitt, E. Andersson, T. Zhu, F. Weng, and S. J. Lord 2:15 PM 3A.3 The Canadian LAM 3D-Var continental analysis system   Ervig Lapalme, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. Fillion, M. Tanguay, S. R. Macpherson, and B. Denis 2:30 PM 3A.4 The Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation system at the Naval Research Laboratory   Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi, T. Holt, C. Bishop, F. Zhang, and Q. Xu 2:45 PM 3A.5 Efficient situation-dependent covariance generation using recursive filters and the methods of Riemannian geometry   R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom West Session 3B High Impact Weather Part III
CoChair: Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 3B.1 Seasonal climate variability and predictability issues associated with recurving tropical cyclones, an extreme Arctic ridge, and a land-falling atmospheric river from 27 November to 5 December 2007   Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 1:45 PM 3B.2 A climatology of high lapse rates and their influence on heat waves east of the Rocky Mountains   Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and L. F. Bosart 2:00 PM 3B.3 Observational and numerical studies of rapid warm front passages   Todd M. Kluber, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. H. Carr 2:15 PM 3B.4 Ongoing development of an experimental, real-time prediction system for high-impact convective weather events   Jacob Carley, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. Baldwin, J. Trapp, J. Kwiatkowski, J. Logsdon, and S. J. Weiss 2:30 PM 3B.5 Real-time forecasting for New York City and its surroundings, with emphasis on sea breezes and other coastal circulations   Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife, J. A. Grim, and M. Ge 2:45 PM 3B.6 Processes and predictability in recent widespread heavy rain and flood events   Russ S. Schumacher, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom Center Joint Poster Session 1 Joint Posters Part I
JP1.1 On the Negative Water Vapor in the NCEP GFS: Sources and Solution   Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD   JP1.2 Numerical simulation of local circulation in the lake area around Daejeon, Korea   Jae-Young Byon, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, South Korea; and Y. -. J. Choi and B. K. Seo   JP1.3 Cool-Season Severe Weather in the Northeast U.S   Jonas Asuma, SUNY/ University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, J. S. Quinlan, and T. A. Wasula JP1.4 PAPER WITHDRAWN     JP1.5 A radiosonde system for the University of Missouri: An informal study of a decaying thunderstorm near Columbia, Missouri   Cody Lee Fritz, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, N. I. Fox, S. Skibinski, and A. R. Lupo   JP1.6 High-resolution simulated ABI datasets used for GOES-R research activities   Jason A. Otkin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Greenwald, J. Sieglaff, M. M. Gunshor, K. Bah, T. J. Schmit, A. Huang, and S. Wanzong   JP1.7 An intercomparison of T-REX mountain wave simulations   James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Gabersek, L. R. Bernardet, J. M. Brown, A. Doernbrack, E. Filaus, V. Grubisic, Q. Jiang, D. J. Kirshbaum, O. Knoth, S. Koch, I. Stiperski, S. Vosper, and S. Zhong   JP1.8 Numerical Accuracy of the Regional Spectral Method used in NCEP RSM   Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang   JP1.9 Sensitivity of a simulated landfalling typhoon to soil moisture initialization   Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and Y. J. Lim and T. Y. Lee   JP1.10 A detailed analysis of the nocturnal QLCS tornadoes that moved through Omaha, Nebraska, on 8 June 2008   Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE ; and J. T. Martinelli and D. Nietfeld   JP1.11 A new approach to local modeling   James M. Frederick, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. B. McGavock and S. F. Piltz   JP1.12 Development and testing of an operational mesoscale ensemble system   Teddy Holt, NRL, Monterey, California; and J. Hansen, C. Bishop, and M. Sestak   JP1.13 A Comparison of two Mellor-Yamada-based PBL schemes in Simulating a Hybrid Barrier Jet   Joseph B. Olson, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and National Research Council, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom East Session 4A Ensemble Forecasting Part I
CoChair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
4:00 PM 4A.1 AFWA's Joint Ensemble Forecast System Experiment   Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and T. Nobis, S. Rentschler, S. Rugg, J. Cunningham, J. Hughes, and M. Sittel 4:15 PM 4A.2 The Air Force Weather Agency's mesoscale ensemble: scientific description and recent results   Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and C. Snyder, S. Ha, J. Schramm, M. Pocernich, and D. Dowell 4:30 PM 4A.3 Representing Model Error in the AWFA Joint Mesoscale Ensemble by a Stochastic Kinetic Backscatter Scheme   Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Fournier, S. Y. Ha, J. Hacker, and C. Snyder 4:45 PM 4A.4 Recent upgrade of NCEP short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, J. Zhu, J. Wang, and H. Juang 5:00 PM 4A.5 Upgrade of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Hou, and B. Cui 5:15 PM 4A.6 The impact of a stochastic perturbation scheme on hurricane prognosis in NCEP global ensemble forecast   Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Grand Ballroom West Session 4B Severe Weather Part I
CoChair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS, Little Rock, AR
4:00 PM 4B.1 RADAR characteristics of the July, 2008 New Hampshire tornado: precursor and tornadogenesis stages   John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS, Gray, ME; and D. St. Jean and M. Cempa 4:15 PM 4B.2 A preliminary investigation of the 27 June 2008 damaging wind event in the Omaha metro and surrounding areas   Brian E. Smith, NOAA/NWS Valley, NE, Valley, NE; and B. E. Mayes 4:30 PM 4B.3 Unusual Severe Weather Outbreak over the Greater Phoenix Metropolitan Area on 28-29 August 2008   G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and P. M. Ińiguez, J. W. Rogers, and M. Leuthold 4:45 PM 4B.4 The northern California lightning event of June 20-21, 2008   Mark Burger, NOAA/NWS, Eureka, CA 5:00 PM 4B.5 Operational forecasting of tornado locations: a verification study of "pathcasts"   Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and D. Speheger, A. R. Dean, K. L. Ortega, and K. Manross 5:15 PM 4B.6 Forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts   Ryan Sobash, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
	7:45 AM-9:00 AM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom East Joint Session 1 Keynote Address
CoChair: R. Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Moderator: Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA Chair: Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA
7:45 AM Welcoming Remarks   8:00 AM J1.1 Convective-scale Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction: Past, Present and Future   Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom East Joint Session 2 Center Updates Part I
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR, Silver Spring, MD Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN
9:00 AM J2.1 An Update of USAF Modeling and Forecast Initiatives   John Egentowich, Second Weather Group, Offutt AFB, NE 9:30 AM J2.2 Modeling and Forecast Update   Louis W. Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom East Joint Session 3 Center Updates Part II
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR, Silver Spring, MD Chair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
10:30 AM J3.1 Environment Canada: Modeling and Forecast Update   Gilbert Brunet, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada 11:00 AM J3.2 Modeling and Forecast Update (tentative)   Dale Barker, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom 11:30 AM J3.3 Current and Future Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S. Navy   Simon W. Chang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Kusters
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 5A Modeling at Various Scales
CoChair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA Chair: John V. Zapotocny, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
1:30 PM 5A.1 Further development of a model for a broad range of spatial and temporal scales   Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 1:45 PM 5A.2 Comparison between ARW and NMM objective forecast verification scores   Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Wolff, L. Nance, A. Loughe, B. Weatherhead, E. Gilleland, and B. Brown 2:00 PM 5A.3 Medium-range extratropical cyclone errors and their origin within the NCEP GFS model   Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY ; and M. Charles 2:15 PM 5A.4 Spatial and temporal object-based evaluation of numerical precipitation forecasts   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and R. Bullock 2:30 PM 5A.5 Evaluation of model performance and possible improvements of microphysical parameterizations by using radar data   Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, T. Vukicevic, and M. van Lier-Walqui 2:45 PM 5A.6 Using “Pseudo” RAOB Observations to Study GFS Skill Score Dropouts   Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. L. Carlis, B. A. Ballish, and V. K. Kumar
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 5B Societal Impacts of Weather Forecasts
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Kelly Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
1:30 PM 5B.1 The impact of the Little Sioux Scout Ranch tornado of 11 June 2008   Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE; and R. Griffis 1:45 PM 5B.2 The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado tornado: Analysis of meteorological conditions and the communication of weather information   Russ S. Schumacher, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. T. Lindsey, A. B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. D. Miller, and J. Demuth 2:00 PM 5B.3 Utility Sector Wind Power Forecasting: Status and Measurement Needs   Marc Schwartz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and E. Ela 2:15 PM 5B.4 Assessment of weather-related non-recurring congestion on Utah's highways: Investigation of event impacts from the winter of 2008-09'   Ralph Patterson, Utah Dept of Transportation, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Graham, K. Barjenbruch, G. Blackwelder, B. Hansen, M. Holts, J. Miller, M. Seaman, J. Williams, and A. Yocom 2:30 PM 5B.5 Estimating potential severe weather societal impacts using probabilistic forecasts issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center   Russell S. Schneider, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean 2:45 PM 5B.6 Next generation warning services in the National Weather Service   Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and J. T. Ferree and E. Jacks
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom Center Joint Poster Session 2 Joint Poster Part II
JP2.1 Application of a QPF-POP relationship to ensembles to generate better probabilistic precipitation forecasts   Christopher J. Schaffer, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus and M. Segal   JP2.2 A Case Study of a Wake Low in northern Illinois and the WRF model prediction of the Wake Low   William H. Wilson, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and E. Janzon   JP2.3 Factors contributing to sensitivity in the observed overland reintensification of TC Erin (2007) over Oklahoma   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. J. Galarneau and R. S. Schumacher   JP2.4 High Resolution WRF-ARW studies at the US Army Research Laboratory for use in short range forecast applications   Robert E. Dumais Jr., U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and J. E. Passner   JP2.5 A technique for creating composite sea surface temperatures from NASA's MODIS instruments in order to improve numerical weather prediction   Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife, J. A. Grim, A. N. Hahmann, and J. P. Hacker   JP2.6 Methodology for the Determination of 12-Foot Sea Radii for Tropical Cyclones   Jessica Schauer Clark, NHC, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb and J. P. Cangialosi   JP2.7 Effects of beam broadening and earth curvature in radar data assimilation   Guoqing Ge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. A. Brewster, and M. Xue   JP2.8 Investigation of the WRF-Simulated Visibility Parameter in Comparison to Observational Data   Philip D. Hayes, Northrop Grumman, Chantilly, VA; and E. M. Kemp and R. J. Alliss JP2.9 PAPER WITHDRAWN     JP2.10 Recent grid verification highlights in the NWS Eastern Region   David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and J. Watson and D. R. Novak   JP2.11 A tall tower study of the impact of the Low-level jet on wind speed and shear at turbine heights   Ali Koleiny, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. E. Cooley and N. I. Fox   JP2.12 Verifying the boundary layer properties over heterogeneous surfaces using the LEAD portal   Miliaritiana Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph and J. D. Fuentes   JP2.13 Development of a new bulk microphysical parameterization with varying riming intensity and its evaluation within WRF   Yanluan Lin, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and B. A. Colle
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 6A Statistical Techniques: MOS and Operational Forecast Support
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR, Silver Spring, MD Chair: Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE
4:00 PM 6A.1 On the ability to develop MOS guidance with short dependent samples from an evolving numerical model   Mark S. Antolik, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. N. Baker 4:15 PM 6A.2 GFS-Based MOS Opaque Sky Cover and Ceiling Height Guidance for the Contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico   Wei Yan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Zhao 4:30 PM 6A.3 The NMM MOS replacement for the Eta MOS   Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Engle, P. Shafer, and G. Wagner 4:45 PM 6A.4 Improvements to the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) statistical guidance for ceiling height and sky cover   Mitchell Weiss, WYLE Information Systems, Inc., McLean, VA; and J. E. Ghirardelli 5:00 PM 6A.5 The conditional risk of severe convection estimated from archived NWS/Storm Prediction Center mesoscale objective analyses: potential uses in support of forecast operations and verification   Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. S. Schneider, R. L. Thompson, J. Hart, and P. D. Bothwell 5:15 PM 6A.6 Gridded Model Output Statistics: improving and expanding   Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. L. Cosgrove, K. L. Sheets, and G. A. Wagner
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 6B Tropical Weather Part I
CoChair: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS, Gray, Maine Chair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University, Omaha, NE
4:00 PM 6B.1 Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities: Operational results and future applications   Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. D. Knabb, M. DeMaria, A. B. Schumacher, and J. A. Knaff 4:15 PM 6B.2 Objective Evaluation for the High Resolution Hurricane Test Plan   Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, B. G. Brown, S. Bao, C. W. Harrop, J. Wolff, and T. Jensen 4:30 PM 6B.3 Mesoscale adaptive observing and high-resolution tropical cyclone forecasts using COAMPS-TC during T-PARC/TCS08   James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, C. M. Amerault, and H. Jin 4:45 PM 6B.4 Environmental Characteristics of Intensifying and Weakening Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Basins   Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng and B. Fu 5:00 PM 6B.5 Understanding the thermodynamic evolution of the tropical cyclone warm core during the extratropical transition process   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart 5:15 PM 6B.6 Linked extreme weather events: Severe cold and record-breaking rains in Mexico and disruptive wild fires in California in late October 2007   Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and H. M. Archambault and J. M. Cordeira
	6:00 PM-10:00 PM, Tuesday Tuesday Night Baseball Game (See General Info for details) Tickets not included in registration.
Wednesday, 3 June 2009
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 7A Microphysical Processes in Modeling
CoChair: James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
8:00 AM 7A.1 Impact of ice and snow fall speed computations on the structure of mesoscale convective systems in spectral and bulk microphysical schemes   Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus 8:15 AM 7A.2 Forecasting the solid-to-liquid ratio of precipitation a cloud-resolving model   Jason A. Milbrandt, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada 8:30 AM 7A.3 Impact study of new cloud and radiation treatments on extended weather forecasts with the US Navy's global atmospheric model   Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Hogan, Y. J. Kim, J. Ridout, and A. Zhao 8:45 AM 7A.4 An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation   Louie Grasso, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. T. Lindsey
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 7B Severe Weather Part II
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS, Little Rock, AR
8:00 AM 7B.1 The climatology and organization of convection over the Northeast United States   John Murray, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and K. Lombardo 8:15 AM 7B.2 Composite Analysis of the Mesoscale Environments Associated with Significant Nocturnal Tornadoes in the Plains   Dennis E. Cavanaugh, NOAA/NWS, Topeka, KS; and J. M. Boustead, E. P. K. Lunde, and S. F. Blair 8:30 AM 7B.3 Composite analysis of environmental conditions favorable for significant tornadoes across eastern Kansas   Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Topeka, KS ; and G. Phillips, W. Gargan, J. Leighton, and B. E. Mayes 8:45 AM 7B.4 Convection and Appalachian cold-air damming   Adam K. Baker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 8A Radar Data Assimilation
CoChair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
9:00 AM 8A.1 The Relative Importance of Assimilating Radial Velocity and Reflectivity Data   Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Ge and D. J. Stensrud 9:15 AM 8A.2 A multi-case assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations   Altug Aksoy, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and D. Dowell and C. Snyder 9:30 AM 8A.3 Short-term explicit forecasting and nowcasting of convection systems with WRF using a hybrid radar data assimilation approach   Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Yu, T. Warner, J. Sun, Q. Xiao, and J. Pace 9:45 AM 8A.4 Doppler Radar Data Assimilation and High Resolution Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting: IHOP Retrospective Studies   Qingnong Xiao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun, E. Lim, and H. Wang
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 8B Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part I
CoChair: Jeffrey D. Cetola, Second Weather Group, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO, Upton, NY
9:00 AM 8B.1 Cold-Air Damming Erosion: Physical Mechanisms and Numerical Prediction   Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 9:15 AM 8B.2 Detect cloud icing conditions using CloudSat datasets   Michael P. Kay, NOAA/ESRL/CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and C. Lu, P. Li, S. Madine, and J. Mahoney 9:30 AM 8B.3 Moving quasigeostrophic theory into the 21st century   Eric Thaler, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and P. Nutter 9:45 AM 8B.4 Evaluating temporal wind changes in mesoscale numerical forecasts using an object-based method   Daran L. Rife, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and J. C. Knievel
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 9A Data Assimilation: Error covariances and hybrid methods
CoChair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
10:30 AM 9A.1 Status report on Rapid Refresh development   Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, D. Dévényi, S. G. Benjamin, W. R. Moninger, S. E. Peckham, G. A. Grell, K. J. Brundage, B. D. Jamison, C. W. Harrop, and J. B. Olson 10:45 AM 9A.2 Application of anisotropic recursive filters to the generation of planetary scale background covariances   Yoshiaki Sato, JMA visiting NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser 11:00 AM 9A.3 Impacts of different background error covariance matrices on 4DVAR data assimilation   Lei Zhang, Univ. of Utah and Lanzhou Univ., Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Qiu and Z. Pu 11:15 AM 9A.4 A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation in a two-dimensional shallow water model   Lili Lei, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer 11:30 AM 9A.5 A Hybrid Data Assimilation System (WRF-VAR and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) Based Retrospective Tests with Real Observations   Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Barker, Y. Chen, J. Hacker, X. Y. Huang, C. Snyder, and X. Wang 11:45 AM 9A.6 A comparison of the hybrid and EnSRF analysis schemes in the presence of model errors due to unresolved scales   Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Hamill, J. Whitaker, and C. H. Bishop
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 9B Mesoscale Convective Systems/Convection
Cochairs: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS, Gray, Maine; John P. Gagan, NOAA Chair: C. C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS, North Little Rock, AR
10:30 AM 9B.1 Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Lakes   Nicholas D. Metz, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 10:45 AM 9B.2 MCS motion: The role of vertical momentum transport   Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 11:00 AM 9B.3 MCS Initiation and Development Influenced by the Land/Lake Thermodynamic Contrasts near the Great Lakes   Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 11:15 AM 9B.4 The role of the trailing stratiform region in convective momentum transport and mesoscale convective system motion   Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 11:30 AM 9B.5 Using the GOES sounder to nearcast severe convection   Robert M. Aune, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI; and R. A. Petersen 11:45 AM 9B.6 Developing Georeferenced Representations of Tornado Tracks during the Spring 2008 Severe Weather Season   C. C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS, North Little Rock, AR; and D. Koch
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday, Dakota WAF/NWP Committee Luncheon
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 10A Land Surface and Boundary Layer Effects on Modeling
CoChair: Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
1:30 PM 10A.1 Convective initiation in a convection permitting simulation: Land surface, PBL, and dynamic forcing   James Correia Jr., PNNL, Richland, WA ; and L. R. Leung and R. W. Arritt 1:45 PM 10A.2 Idealized simulations of circulations forced by land surface heterogeneity   Brian P. Reen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. P. Tyndall, G. S. Young, and D. R. Stauffer 2:00 PM 10A.3 Why do long term regional climate simulations have reduced atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Great Plains?   James Correia Jr., PNNL, Richland, WA ; and L. R. Leung 2:15 PM 10A.4 An assessment of the North American Mesoscale model forecasts during valley cold pools in the western United States   H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud 2:30 PM 10A.5 Sensitivity of a moist PBL turbulence parameterization on the NCEP GFS forecast   Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan 2:45 PM 10A.6 Impact of a New Thermal Roughness Length Treatment on the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)   Helin Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Zheng, J. Meng, M. Ek, K. Mitchell, X. Zeng, and Z. Wang
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 10B Winter Weather Part I
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 10B.1 Using post-processed short-range ensemble products to enhance precipitation type forecasts: the 1 December 2007 Upper Midwest storm   Dan A. Baumgardt, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI 1:45 PM 10B.2 Collision of a Pineapple Express with an arctic outbreak over complex terrains of British Columbia, Canada -- Forecast challenges and lessons learned   Ruping Mo, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and Q. Geng, M. Brugman, G. Pearce, J. Goosen, and B. Snyder 2:00 PM 10B.3 Modeling study of a winter extreme cold weather episode in the central Alaska basin using the NCAR WRF-RTFDDA system   Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wu, G. Roux, T. Warner, S. Sawerdlin, J. Pace, and E. G. Astling 2:15 PM 10B.4 A Red Herring? In Search of the Cold Occluded Cyclone   Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. Crandall, M. H. M. Anip, and A. R. Lupo 2:30 PM 10B.5 A remarkable mesoscale snowband event over southern PA: A snow lover's dream and a forecaster's nightmare   John R. Scala, WGAL-TV, Lancaster, PA; and D. Beachler, M. Dangelo, and R. H. Grumm 2:45 PM 10B.6 The North Texas convective snow event of 6 March 2008   Nicholas L. Hampshire, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and T. M. Ryan
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break with Poster Viewing - Sponsored by Raytheon
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom Center Joint Poster Session 3 Joint Poster Part III
JP3.1 Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles   Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, M. Xue, and F. Kong   JP3.2 Predictability of convective rainfall events during different large-scale weather regimes in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing simulations   Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, M. Xue, and F. Kong   JP3.3 Impact of dual-polorimetric radar data assimilation on short-term rainfall forecast of two convective systems   Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski and L. Carey   JP3.4 Relating snowfall patterns over the central and eastern US to infrared imagery of extratropical cyclone comma heads   Darren Van Cleave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Dostalek and T. H. Vonder Haar   JP3.5 A Predecessor Rain Event over the Upper Midwest Associated with Tropical Cyclone Rita (2005)   Benjamin J. Moore, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser   JP3.6 Comparing CRTM simulated radiances with observations from AIRS and TRMM satellite sensors for tropical cyclone cases   Levi Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu   JP3.7 Experiences with an ensemble of real-time mesoscale WRF simulations across the Southeast United States   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL   JP3.8 A synoptic climatology of significant winter storms in the Twin Cities area   Lisa Schmit, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and T. R. Hultquist   JP3.9 Improving forecasts of instrument flight rule conditions over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and beyond   Steven Thompson, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI; and D. A. Baumgardt   JP3.10 Winter Weather Guidance from Regional Historical Analogs   Chad M. Gravelle, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and C. E. Graves, J. P. Gagan, F. H. Glass, and M. Evans   JP3.11 Significant rime ice events in Utah's Wasatch Mountains: Impacts and conceptual models   Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Neuman   JP3.12 Analysis of Forecast Performance for Hit, Miss, and False Alarm Thundersnow Events during ROCS   Katie Crandall, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market   JP3.13 Preferential Storm Pathways and Mountain Precipitation over the Intermountain West   Matthew E. Jeglum, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom East Session 11A Data Assimilation: Profiling and satellite data assimilation
CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO Chair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
4:00 PM 11A.1 Evaluation of different methods for assimilating 3-dimensional wind profiles in NWP model: A regional OSSE study   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Zhang 4:15 PM 11A.2 Profiler assessment and ongoing profiler observation quality monitoring using the Rapid Update Cycle   Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. G. Benjamin, and S. Sahm 4:30 PM 11A.3 Data assimilation strategies in the planetary boundary layer   Brian P. Reen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer 4:45 PM 11A.4 Comprehensive Test-Rig for WRF data Assimilation Developments at NCAR Data Assimilation Testbed Center   Hui Shao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Y. Huang, Z. Liu, T. Auligne, M. Demirtas, S. Rizvi, and H. Lin 5:00 PM 11A.5 Bias correction in the ensemble-based data assimilation system for the NCEP GFS model   Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Whitaker and T. Hamill 5:15 PM 11A.6 Improvement of land surface skin temperature in NCEP operational NWP models and its impact on satellite data assimilation   Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Wei, J. Meng, M. Ek, K. Mitchell, J. C. Derber, X. Zeng, and Z. Wang
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Grand Ballroom West Session 11B Winter Weather Part II
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina
4:00 PM 11B.1 Influence of diabatic potential vorticity anomalies upon warm conveyor belt flow. Part I: 14-15 February 2003   Philip N. Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and J. M. Boustead and M. A. Baxter 4:15 PM 11B.2 Influence of diabatic potential vorticity anomalies upon warm conveyor belt flow. Part II: 3-5 January 2005   Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Topeka, KS ; and P. N. Schumacher and M. A. Baxter 4:30 PM 11B.3 A high-resolution observational climatology and composite study of mesoscale band evolution within northeast United States cyclones   David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. A. Colle and A. R. Aiyyer 4:45 PM 11B.4 Secrets of the "Greatest Snow on Earth"   W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. I. Alcott 5:00 PM 11B.5 Climatology and prediction of snow-to-liquid ratio in the central Wasatch Mountains   Trevor I. Alcott, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh 5:15 PM 11B.6 A scheme to produce high-resolution gridded snowfall estimates over the conterminous United States   Andy Cox, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval and B. Rose
Thursday, 4 June 2009
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom East Session 12A Modeling Results from Field Studies
CoChair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN Chair: Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
8:00 AM 12A.1 Lessons learned on short-term explicit prediction of storms through a joint IHOP_2002 retrospective study   Juanzhen Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, M. Weisman, and J. Wilson 8:15 AM 12A.2 Thermodynamic destabilization processes in ARW-WRF convection-permitting simulations during a 6-day IHOP_2002 retrospective period   Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis 8:30 AM 12A.3 A high-resolution modeling study of convective initiation on 19 June 2002 during IHOP   Qi-Wei Wang, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 8:45 AM 12A.4 Naval Research Laboratory global model adaptive observing during T-PARC/TCS-08   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. H. Langland
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom West Session 12B Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part II
CoChair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 12B.1 Integration of LEAD and WRF Portal technologies to enable advanced research, operations and education in mesoscale meteorology   Craig Mattocks, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and K. K. Droegemeier and R. B. Wilhelmson 8:15 AM 12B.2 Integration of a real time high resolution ensemble system into National Weather Service hydrometeorological operations   Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO, Upton, NY; and N. Furbush, A. Leptich, A. M. Cope, R. Kruzdlo, J. Ostrowski, B. A. Colle, and M. J. Erickson 8:30 AM 12B.3 An overview of the GOES-R Proving Ground: current forecaster interactions and future plans   Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Miller, M. DeMaria, A. S. Bachmeier, J. Gerth, R. Schneider, J. Gurka, S. Goodman, and K. K. Fuell 8:45 AM 12B.4 The CIMSS/ASPB component of the GOES-R Proving Ground Program   Jordan Gerth, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. S. Bachmeier
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom East Session 13A Modeling for Research and Operational Support
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
9:00 AM 13A.1 Investigation of NCEP GFS Model Forecast Skill "Dropout" Characteristics using the EBI Index   V. Krishna Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD MD; and J. C. Alpert, D. L. Carlis, and B. A. Ballish 9:15 AM 13A.2 The WRF Developmental Testbed Center: Accomplishments and Outlook   Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, S. Koch, and L. R. Bernardet 9:30 AM 13A.3 An overview of operational FNMOC mesoscale cloud forecast support   Roger A. Stocker, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin 9:45 AM 13A.4 Overview of atmospheric global modeling and research at NRL   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, J. Hansen, E. Hendricks, T. Hogan, V. Khade, Y. J. Kim, R. Langland, M. Liu, J. McLay, M. Peng, J. Ridout, and T. Whitcomb
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom West Session 13B Tropical Weather Part II
CoChair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University, Omaha, NE
9:00 AM 13B.1 A tropical cyclone analysis system for COAMPS-TC   Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi 9:15 AM 13B.2 The distribution of helicity and intense convection in simulated tropical cyclones   Kathryn Shontz, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and K. L. Corbosiero 9:30 AM 13B.3 14 September 2008 Ohio Valley high wind event associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ike   Elizabeth M. Stoppkotte, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and A. Lese, S. Pavlow, and R. Baker 9:45 AM 13B.4 The Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007): Genesis, Postlandfall Reintensification, and Widespread Heavy Rain   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and R. S. Schumacher
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom East Session 14A Modeling, Data Assimilation and Applications
CoChair: Michael D. McAtee, Aerospace Corporation, Offutt, NE Chair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
10:30 AM 14A.1 Dynamically Adaptive Numerical Weather Prediction: Models, observations and cyberinfrastructure responding to the atmosphere   Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Wang 11:00 AM 14A.2 FNMOC Operational Aerosol Modeling and Derived Products   Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and T. Duffy, D. L. Westphal, and C. A. Curtis 11:15 AM 14A.3 Operational application of NAVDAS 3DVAR Analysis for COAMPS-OS   Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley, M. D. Frost, R. L. Pauley, and D. A. Geiszler 11:30 AM 14A.4 Applications of the COAMPS adjoint model   Clark M. Amerault, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle 11:45 AM 14A.5 A numerical investigation of Appalachian cold-air damming with a WRF-based four dimensional data assimilation system   Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, T. Warner, M. Padovani, G. Luft, and K. Fling
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom West Session 14B Tropical Weather Part III
CoChair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University, Omaha, NE Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL
10:30 AM 14B.1 Developing Hurricane Related Inland Flooding Forecasts at EMC   Yihua Wu, NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, and Y. Xia 10:45 AM 14B.2 Impacts of Initial and Boundary Conditions on Hurricane Katrina Track Forecasts   Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, Y. Jin, M. S. Peng, R. M. Hodur, T. Campbell, and S. Gabersek 11:00 AM 14B.3 Forecast errors associated with Hurricane Rita (2005)   Eyad H. Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum 11:15 AM 14B.4 Predictability Associated with Interactions between Recurving West Pacific Tropical Cyclones and the Extratropical Large-Scale Flow   Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart 11:30 AM 14B.5 Examination of the tropical cyclone environment through comparison of COSMIC with other satellite data   Christopher M. Hill, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick and Y. Lau 11:45 AM 14B.6 Understanding Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity to Ice Nuclei Concentration Formulations   Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, and S. Wang
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom East Session 15A Data Assimilation: RTMA and Rapid Refresh
CoChair: Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE Chair: Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE
1:30 PM 15A.1 Experiments with anisotropic background error correlations in the Rapid Refresh system   Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, M. Hu, and S. G. Benjamin 1:45 PM 15A.2 Recent improvements to the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)   Manuel Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin 2:00 PM 15A.3 Wind Gust Speed Analysis in RTMA   Yanqiu Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, J. Derber, M. Pondeca, G. Manikin, R. Treadon, D. Parrish, and J. Purser 2:15 PM 15A.4 Sensitivity of surface temperature analyses to background and observation errors   Daniel Tyndall, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel 2:30 PM 15A.5 Adaptation and implementation of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) for Rapid Refresh   Ming Hu, GSD/ESRL/NOAA and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Devenyi, S. S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin 2:45 PM 15A.6 The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC / RR   Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, K. J. Brundage, S. R. Sahm, C. R. Alexander, and B. E. Schwartz
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom West Session 15B Statistical Techniques Part I
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM 15B.1 Recent enhancements to the Model Evaluation Tools (METv2.0)   John Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, S. Sullivan, and T. L. Fowler 1:45 PM 15B.2 Verification of mesoscale cloud forecasts utilizing composite and fuzzy techniques   Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, C. Mitrescu, and R. A. Stocker 2:00 PM 15B.3 Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a proof of concept   Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK; and G. Wiley 2:15 PM 15B.4 Evaluation of Experimental Forecasts from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment   Tara L. Jensen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, L. Nance, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio 2:30 PM 15B.5 Operational 2-h thunderstorm guidance forecasts to 24 hours on a 20-km grid   Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky 2:45 PM 15B.6 Monitoring observation-model differences in the real time Rapid Refrash System   Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. R. Sahm, M. Hu, S. G. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom Center Joint Poster Session 4 Joint Poster Part IV
JP4.1 Bridging the "middle ground" between medium range weather forecasting and climate prediction: verifying the accuracy of 14 day outlooks   Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia   JP4.2 The Navy's global atmospheric ensemble forecast system   James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, M. Flatau, D. Hodyss, S. Klotz, J. Ridout, J. McLay, C. Reynolds, M. Sestak, and P. Whitman   JP4.3 Use of High-Resolution Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts Products for Guidance in Predicting Microburst Events in a Mountain Desert Environment   Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Krippner   JP4.4 The Naval Research Laboratory Probabilistic Prediction Research Office   James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA   JP4.5 Training on better operational use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: Needs assessment survey results   Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua   JP4.6 a review of forecast techniques and practices for NWS probabilistic forecast products and services   Brian C. Motta, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Grumm, P. Schultz, and T. Hamill   JP4.7 Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast calibration over South America: Experiments with a short range regional ensemble   Juan J. Ruiz, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences (FCEyn-UBA) and CIMA (CONICET/UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; and A. C. Saulo and E. Kalnay   JP4.8 Development of a Sounding-Based Prediction Model for Phoenix, Arizona   Jaret W. Rogers, NOAA/NWSFO Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ   JP4.9 NOGAPS ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone genesis: Evaluation during T-PARC/TCS-08   Andrew Snyder, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu and C. A. Reynolds   JP4.10 Objective analysis of meteorologically significant events over the Central United States 1948-2008   Mark O'Malley, NOAA/NWS, Plesant Hill, MO; and B. E. Mayes, R. Grumm, J. M. Boustead, and S. Fortin   JP4.11 has been moved to JP3.13     JP4.12 Using gridded MOS techniques to derive snowfall climatologies   Michael N. Baker, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and K. L. Sheets and G. A. Wagner   JP4.13 Downscaling the NAM and providing precipitation probability forecasts using "smartinit" processing   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom East Session 16A Ensemble Forecasting Systems and Field Support
CoChair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA Chair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
4:00 PM 16A.1 E-4DWX: An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Modeling System   Scott F. Halvorson, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and S. Krippner, J. Pace, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, J. P. Hacker, T. M. Hopson, J. C. Knievel, T. T. Warner, and S. P. Swerdlin 4:15 PM 16A.2 CAPS REALTIME 4-KM MULTI-MODEL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE AND 1-KM CONVECTION-RESOLVING FORECASTS FOR THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED 2009 SPRING EXPERIMENT   Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du 4:30 PM 16A.3 A real-time storm-scale ensemble forecast system: 2009 Spring Experiment   Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du 4:45 PM 16A.4 An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA – system description and verification   Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hopson, G. Roux, J. Hacker, W. Wu, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, S. F. Halvorson, and J. Pace 5:00 PM 16A.5 Using Ensemble Prediction Systems for Decision Support Activities   Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA 5:15 PM 16A.6 NCEP global ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone genesis over the East Atlantic: Evaluation during AMMA   Andrew Snyder, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu and Y. Zhu 16A.7 PAPER WITHDRAWN
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom West Session 16B Statistical Techniques Part II
CoChair: Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA
4:00 PM 16B.1 Verifying vectors   Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Fowler 4:15 PM 16B.2 The spatial verification method intercomparison project   D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. Brown, and E. Ebert 4:30 PM 16B.3 Utilizing standardized anomalies to assess synoptic scale weather events in the central United States   Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE ; and M. O'Malley, S. Fortin, J. M. Boustead, and R. Grumm 4:45 PM 16B.4 NAEFS based bias correction and statistical down scaling   Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and Z. Toth 5:00 PM 16B.5 Verification of a daily thunderstorm probability forecast contest using the National Lightning Detection Network   Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and T. J. Galarneau 5:15 PM 16B.6 Ensemble-derived estimation of wind uncertainty using a linear variance calibration for probabilistic weather applications   Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, and A. Deng
	8:00 PM-10:00 PM, Thursday, Grand Ballroom East Session WAF/NWP Conference Picture Show and Contest
Friday, 5 June 2009
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Friday, Grand Ballroom East Session 17A Ensemble Forecasting Part II
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Peter Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA
8:00 AM 17A.1 Mesoscale ensemble prediction for model improvement: atmospheric ducting example   James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Holt, M. Sestak, and J. Doyle 8:15 AM 17A.2 Ensemble data assimilation to quantify land-atmosphere coupling-strength errors in numerical weather prediction model formulation   Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and W. M. Angevine and D. Rostkier-Edelstein 8:30 AM 17A.3 Probabilistic nowcasting of PBL profiles with surface observations and an ensemble filter   Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness-Ziona, Israel; and J. P. Hacker 8:45 AM 17A.4 On-line diagnosis and optimization of ensemble forecasts   Tomislava Vukicevic, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov and J. A. McGinley
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Friday, Grand Ballroom West Session 17B Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part III
CoChair: Rick S. Chermok, NWSFO, Valley, NE Chair: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO
8:00 AM 17B.1 Of weather prediction without models   M. Jeremie Lafitte (Levitas), WMN Predictions, Tverya, Galil, Israel; and G. Lafitte 8:15 AM 17B.2 Hi-res gridded MOS 6-h qpf guidance   Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky 8:30 AM 17B.3 A versatile WRF and MM5-based weather analysis and forecasting system for supporting wind energy prediction   Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Warner, W. Wu, G. Roux, W. Cheng, Y. Liu, F. Chen, L. Delle-Monache, W. Mahoney, and S. Swerdlin 8:45 AM 17B.4 A Portable Mesoscale Prediction System for MODIS Direct Broadcast Sites   Robert M. Aune, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Madison, WI; and K. I. Strabala, S. S. Lindstrom, and A. Huang
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Grand Ballroom East Session 18A Modeling Part I
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
9:00 AM 18A.1 An examination of FIM performance for a variety of weather scenarios   Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, and M. Fiorino 9:15 AM 18A.2 Digital filter initialization of the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) employing a regional-scale nonhydrostatic multi-scale model (NMMB) dynamical core   Edward Colón, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black and B. Ferrier 9:30 AM 18A.3 Using a Calibrated Mesoscale Ensemble to Improve Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts over the Northeast U.S   Michael J. Erickson, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. S. Tongue, A. M. Cope, and J. T. Ostrowski 9:45 AM 18A.4 Implementation and testing of WRF Digital Filter Initialization (DFI) at NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory   Tatiana G. Smirnova, CIRES University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Grand Ballroom West Session 18B Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part IV
CoChair: Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO
9:00 AM 18B.1 New training course on use of NWP in forecast operations   William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt 9:15 AM 18B.2 Mesoscale Modeling for Radar Propagation Prediction during the Wallops-2000 Experiment   Changgui Wang, Meteorological Office, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and P. Clark, T. Haack, and S. Millington 9:30 AM 18B.3 Dynamic Structure of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Nested Modeling and Observations   Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang, P. Martin, J. Cummings, L. W. O'Neill, Q. Wang, L. Romero, and W. K. Melville 9:45 AM 18B.4 Sub-kilometer numerical predictions in the nocturnal stable boundary layer   David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and B. J. Gaudet, N. L. Seaman, J. C. Wyngaard, L. Mahrt, and S. Richardson
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Friday, Grand Ballroom Center Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Grand Ballroom East Session 19A Modeling Part II
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
10:30 AM 19A.1 An adaptive time-step for increased model efficiency   Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA 10:45 AM 19A.2 The Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to the Optimization of a Mesoscale Meteorological Model   David W. Werth, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and L. O'Steen 11:00 AM 19A.3 On the use of support vector machines to evaluate the capability of the WRF to discriminate tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks   Chad M. Shafer, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK ; and L. M. Leslie, M. B. Richman, and C. A. Doswell 11:15 AM 19A.4 The nonhydrostatic icosahedral model (NIM)   Jin Lee, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald 11:30 AM 19A.5 The Process of Thunderstorm Generation by Bores   Steven Koch, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Grand Ballroom West Session 19B Ensemble Forecasting Part III
CoChair: Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN
10:30 AM 19B.1 Application of object-oriented verification techniques to ensemble precipitation forecasts   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA 10:45 AM 19B.2 Probabilistic thunderstorm guidance from a time-lagged ensemble of High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasts   Curtis R. Alexander, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Koch, S. S. Weygandt, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, and H. Yuan 11:00 AM 19B.3 Linear and nonlinear response to parameter variations in a mesoscale model   Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and C. Snyder 11:15 AM 19B.4 A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles   Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, M. Xue, and F. Kong 11:30 AM 19B.5 An analysis of short range ensemble for cold season cyclones. Part I: An analysis of quantitative precipitation mean and probability forecasts   Kyle D. Weisser, NOAA/NWSFO, Sioux Falls, SD; and P. N. Schumacher and T. R. Hultquist 11:45 AM 19B.6 An analysis of short range ensemble forecasts for cold season extratropical cyclones. Part II: upper Midwest cases from the winter of 2008-09   Thomas R. Hultquist, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and P. N. Schumacher and K. D. Weisser
	12:00 PM-12:05 PM, Friday Conference Ends

Browse the complete program of The 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (1-5 June 2009)