15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday
Short Course/Student Conference Registration
 
Sunday, 11 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration
 
9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration
 
Monday, 12 January 2004
7:30 AM, Monday
Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
 
9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Room 6C
Session 1 Seasonal Prediction (Room 6C)
Chair: John E. Janowiak, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
1.1A comparison of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and COADS El Nino and La Nina composite anomaly lifecycles.  
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison and S. Ferguson
9:00 AM1.2Multiscale evolution and predictability of a warm season climate anomaly in the U.S. southern Great Plains  extended abstract
Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. Lamb
9:15 AM1.3Warm Season Precipitation Prediction over North America with Eta Regional Climate Model  
Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell
9:30 AM1.4Usefulness of recent NOAA/CPC seasonal temperature forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. D. Garbrecht
9:45 AM1.5Seasonal prediction of Pacific island rainfall using artificial intelligence  
Mark L. Morrissey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
 
9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Room 608
Session 2 Climate Observations (Room 608)
Chair: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
9:00 AM2.1NWS Plans for Upper Air System Data Continuity  extended abstract
Joseph Facundo, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. Bower
9:15 AM2.2A new Radiosonde dataset for climate studies  
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
9:30 AM2.3Global large-scale precipitation: Seasonal and interannual variations in the merged analyses, reanalysis and NCEP/GFS model outputs  extended abstract wrf recording
Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. J. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and M. Chen
9:45 AM2.4The next-generation PACRAIN database  extended abstract wrf recording
Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey, J. S. Greene, and S. Postawko
10:00 AM2.5Stratocumulus and climate: observations from EPIC 2001  extended abstract wrf recording
Kimberly Comstock, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Bretherton, S. Yuter, and R. Wood
 
10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday
Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
 
10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 6C
Joint Session 1 Climate Trends (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)
10:45 AMJ1.1Economic signals in global temperature histories  extended abstract wrf recording
Patrick J. Michaels, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA and the Cato Institute, Washington, DC; and R. McKitrick and P. C. Knappenberger
11:00 AMJ1.2Irrigation-induced warming in Central California?  extended abstract wrf recording
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and W. B. Norris
11:15 AMJ1.3Trends in time-varying percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature over North America  extended abstract wrf recording
Scott M. Robeson, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN
11:30 AMJ1.4Is the 50-year trend in tropical Indo-Pacific SSTs significant?  
Cécile Penland, NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
11:45 AMJ1.5AO, COWL and observed climate trends  
Qigang Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD; and D. M. Straus
 
10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 608
Session 3 Atmospheric Oscillations (Room 608)
Chair: Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
10:45 AM3.1Mid-latitude atmospheric influence on tropical Pacific climate variability  
Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
11:00 AM3.2The Impact of ENSO on the NAO variability  
Zhaohua Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD; and E. Schneider and B. Kirtman
11:15 AM3.3Diagnosing the Effect of ENSO and PDO associated Summer Teleconnections in North America with a regional climate model  
Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr.
11:30 AM3.4Aspects of the Heat Balance of the Indian Ocean on Interseasonal and Interannual Timscales  
Kamran Sahami, Univerity of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster
11:45 AM3.5Dynamic Origin of Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the Stormy Atmospheric Circulation  
Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. L. Pan and M. Watanabe
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 6C
Joint Session 2 Drought: Variability Monitoring, Impacts, and Prediction (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)
Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; Greg Johnson, USDA/NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR
1:30 PMJ2.1Paleodrought reconstructions to planning  
Connie A. Woodhouse, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Webb
1:45 PMJ2.2Ensemble Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow in the South Platte  
Robert S. Webb, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Woodhouse
2:00 PMJ2.3ENSO and the changing landscape of drought  
Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
2:15 PMJ2.4Recent Advances in Drought Monitoring  extended abstract wrf recording
Mark D. Svoboda, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. J. Hayes, D. A. Wilhite, and T. Tadesse
2:30 PMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
4:00 PMJ2.5Putting recent U.S. and Southwest drought impacts in perspective  
Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
4:15 PMJ2.6Estimating the Economic Impacts of Drought  extended abstract wrf recording
Michael J. Hayes, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda, C. L. Knutson, and D. A. Wilhite
J2.7Predicting drought vulnerability in the Mediterranean  extended abstract
Jean P. Palutikof, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. Holt
4:30 PMJ2.7AThe Drought of 2002 in Colorado (Formerly Poster JP3.6)  extended abstract wrf recording
Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr.
4:45 PMJ2.8The recent 4-year drought: Global Warming or La Nina?  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo
5:00 PMJ2.9Regional Drought Driven by Tropical Ocean Warming  
Martin Hoerling, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Hurrell
5:15 PMJ2.10CMORPH: An 8KM, Half-Hourly Global Precipitation Monitoring Tool  
John Janowiak, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Joyce, P. Arkin, and P. Xie
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB
Joint Poster Session 1 Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Hall 4AB)
 JP1.1Value of climate forecasts with marginal to modest skill to real users  
Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. E. Mayes
 JP1.2Sources of skill and error in long range Columbia River streamflow forecasts: a comparison of the role of hydrologic state variables and winter climate forecasts  
Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Wood, S. Babu, and D. P. Lettenmaier
 JP1.3“Climate Sensitive” Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Research: Origins, Development and Future  extended abstract
Harvey Hilll, UCAR, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Pulwarty and C. Nierenberg
 JP1.4Verification of specific station forecasts based on ENSO composites and CPC Nino 3.4 forecasts  
Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Staudenmaier, D. Unger, E. Petrescu, A. Bair, W. Higgins, and H. K. Kim
 JP1.5Application of CPC Method to Downscale Seasonal Outlooks from Forecast Divisions to Station Locations  
Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Bair and D. Unger
 JP1.6Weather derivatives as a vehicle to realise the skill of seasonal forecasts  extended abstract
Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorlogy, Melbourne, Australia; and S. S. Dawkins
 JP1.7Moving water from theory and farms—the Colorado water bank experiment  extended abstract
John D. Wiener, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
 JP1.8Wavelet Analysis on Variability, Teleconnectivity and Predictability of East Africa Rainfall  extended abstract
Davison Mwale, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and T. Y. Gan and S. Shen
 JP1.9Forecasting drought in the Murray-Darling Basin at seasonal to interannual time scales  
Gavin J. Bowden, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Barros
 JP1.10ENSO events, rainfall variability and the potential of SOI for the seasonal precipitation predictions in the south of Córdoba-Argentina  extended abstract
Roberto A. Seiler, Univ. of Río Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; and M. G. Vinocur
 JP1.11Analysis of sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics from a nested modeling system for South America  
Anji Seth, International Research Insititute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and M. Rojas
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB
Joint Poster Session 2 Climate Trends (Joint with the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Hall 4AB)
Chair: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL
 JP2.1Temporal changes in dew point temperatures associated with short-duration heat waves in Chicago  
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and M. Sandstrom and C. Schaffer
 JP2.2Visibility trends for coastal regions  extended abstract
Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley
 JP2.3Trends in Relative Humidity in Canada from 1953–2003  extended abstract
William A. Van Wijngaarden, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and L. A. Vincent
 JP2.4Variations and trends in climate indices for Canada  extended abstract
Lucie A. Vincent, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and É. Mekis
 JP2.5Changes of seasonality and phenological cycles in South Korea  extended abstract
Gwangyong Choi, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and W. T. Kwon and D. A. Robinson
 JP2.6Climate analysis and prediction over the Arno river basin, Italy  extended abstract
Francesco Meneguzzo, Institute of Biometeorology /National Research Council, Firenze, Italy; and G. Menduni, G. Maracchi, M. Baldi, G. Brandani, A. Crisci, F. Marrese, M. Pasqui, and F. Piani
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB
Joint Poster Session 3 DROUGHT: VARIABILITY MONITORING, IMPACTS, AND PREDICTION (JOINT withTHE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY; Hall 4AB) (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Chair: Phillip A. Pasteris, Global Water Resources, Portland, OR
 JP3.1Paleoclimatology: A New Tool in Drought Monitoring  
C. Mark Eakin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Woodhouse, E. R. Cook, and R. Heim
 JP3.2Real-time Soil Moisture Information for Drought Monitoring and Assessment  extended abstract
Bradley G. Illston, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. B. Basara, C. Fiebrich, M. Wolfibarger, G. McManus, and D. Arndt
 JP3.3Linking Drought Vulnerable Soil Landscapes with Placement of Climate Stations for Monitoring Drought  
Phillip Pasteris, USDA, Portland, OR; and S. Waltman, G. Schaefer, and R. Sinclair
 JP3.4Drought and the modernized cooperative observer network  extended abstract
Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer and K. C. Crawford
JP3.5Comparison of different evaporation/transpiration schemes using field observations  
Tiffannee Jones, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Niyogi
 Poster JP3.6 moved, now Paper J2.7A  
 JP3.7A Climatology of drought for Arizona  extended abstract
Jenna C. McPhee, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. C. Comrie and G. G. Garfin
 
5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
 
5:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the Day
 
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6C
Joint Session 12 Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office
8:30 AMJ12.1Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction  
Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
8:45 AMJ12.2The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts  
Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
9:00 AMJ12.3Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability  
Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY
9:15 AMJ12.4The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Wintertime Surface Air Temperatures  
Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond
9:30 AMJ12.5Analytic Approximation of MJO-like Systems in Super-parameterization  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
11:00 AMJ12.6Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model  
Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan
11:15 AMJ12.7Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM  
Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang
J12.8 Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting  
Guocheng Yuan, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and W. Wang
11:30 AMJ12.9Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM  
W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg
11:45 AMJ12.10The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling  extended abstract wrf recording
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo
12:00 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PMJ12.11A study of subseasonal predictability  
Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh
1:45 PMJ12.12The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies  extended abstract wrf recording
Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay
2:00 PMJ12.13A Synoptic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction  
Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry
2:15 PMJ12.14Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction  
Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha
2:30 PMJ12.15Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods  extended abstract
Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares
2:45 PMJ12.16Probabilistic Forecasting of South-East Asian Intraseasonal Variability using a Wavelet Banding Technique  
Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster
3:00 PMCoffee Break In Exhibit Hall  
3:30 PMJ12.17Improved intraseasonal South Asian monsoon forecasts using a GCM by comparison to wavelet analysis of empirical precipitation data  
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Hoyos and P. J. Webster
3:45 PMJ12.18Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics  
Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson
4:00 PMJ12.19Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method  
Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool
4:15 PMJ12.20Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation  
Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker
4:30 PMJ12.21Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts  
Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill
4:45 PMJ12.22A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala  
K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi
5:00 PMJ12.23International stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP): Initial results on exploring the new approach to regional climate modeling and prediction ( Formerly paper j13.20)  
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Cote, M. Deque, B. Dugas, and J. McGregor
 
8:30 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 609/610
Joint Session 3 Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Joint with the 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and 18th Conf on Hydrology; Room 609/610)
Organizers: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AMJ3.1The contribution of land-atmosphere interaction to boreal summer season predictability  
Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and M. Zhao and J. Shukla
8:45 AMJ3.2Alternative approaches to land initialization for seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts  
Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, P. Liu, and U. Jambor
9:00 AMJ3.3Impact of land-surface initial conditions spin-up on warm season predictability by the NCEP GFS coupled with the Noah LSM  extended abstract wrf recording
Cheng-Hsuan Lu, RSIS Inc. McLean, VA and EMC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell
9:15 AMJ3.4Role of land surface processes in monsoon development—EAST ASIA AND WEST AFRICA  
Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. -. M. Juang, W. -. P. Li, S. Prince, R. DeFries, and Y. Jiao
9:30 AMJ3.5A stratified diagnosis of the Indian monsoon—Eurasian snow cover relationship  extended abstract wrf recording
J. Fasullo, PAOS, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
9:45 AMCoffee Break with Formal Poster Viewing  
11:00 AMJ3.6A soil moisture initialization method, based on antecedent precipitation approach, for Regional Atmospheric Modeling System: a sensitivity study on precipitation and temperature  extended abstract
Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council (IBIMET-CNR), Florence, Italy; and C. J. Tremback, F. Meneguzzo, G. Giuliani, and B. Gozzini
11:15 AMJ3.7The Mesoscale Impact of Oklahoma's Winter Wheat Belt  extended abstract
Renee A. McPherson, OCS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and K. C. Crawford
11:30 AMJ3.8Contrasting land surface processes over basins of the Americas using Eta model forecasts  
Ernesto Hugo Berbery, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Luo, K. Mitchell, and A. K. Betts
11:45 AMJ3.9Why are the lower level cumulus clouds often better organized on the east bank of the Tapajos River? -- a mechanistic study  
Lixin Lu, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Denning, M. Silva Dias, and P. Silva Dias
12:00 PMJ3.10GLACE: An intercomparison of land-atmosphere coupling strength across a range of atmospheric general circulation models  
Zhichang Guo, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. Dirmeyer and R. D. Koster
 
8:30 AM-3:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 608
Session 4 Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part I (Room 608)
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
8:30 AM4.1An appraisal of the state of the art of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs  
Curt Covey, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. M. AchuaRao, M. Fiorino, P. J. Gleckler, T. J. Phillips, K. R. Sperber, and K. E. Taylor
8:45 AM4.2Climate feedbacks in the GFDL AM2 model  
Anthony J. Broccoli, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
9:00 AM4.3Changes of Precipitation Characteristics by Global Warming Simulated by the MRI CGCM  
Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Hosaka, Y. Adachi, and Y. Murata
4.4The contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings to recent trends in the Southern Hemisphere  
Julie M. Arblaster, NCAR, Boulder, CO
9:15 AM4.5Climate change predicted by the CNRM Climate Model: comparison between coupled and forced experiments  
Herve Douville, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
9:30 AM4.6Assessment of changes in winter extratropical cyclones with increasing CO2  extended abstract wrf recording
Eun-Pa Lim, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and I. Simmonds
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
4.7SST perturbation experiments in the CSU general circulation model: Impact on simulated cloud types  extended abstract
Laura D. Fowler, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall
11:00 AM4.7aINTERDECADAL VARIATIONS IN AGCM SIMULATION SKILLS (Formerly paper P1.30)  extended abstract wrf recording
Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil; and A. Sahai
11:15 AM4.8An evaluation of two GCMs: North American teleconnections and synoptic phenomena  extended abstract wrf recording
J. T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. C. Pryor
11:30 AM4.9Comparison of regional climate scenarios for the Carpathian Basin generated by statistical and dynamical methods  
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Matyasovszky, and V. Schlanger
11:45 AM4.10The Madden-Julian Oscillation in GCMs  
Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL/PCMDI, Livermore, CA; and J. M. Slingo, P. M. Inness, S. Gualdi, W. Li, P. J. Gleckler, and C. Doutriaux
12:00 PMLunch Break  
4.11The Varying Importance of Air-Sea Interactions to MJO in the Indo-Pacific Ocean  
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA; and S. P. Weng and H. Hu
1:30 PM4.12A mechanism of the MJO based on interactions in the frequency domain  
T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. R. Chakraborty, N. Cubukcu, L. Stefanova, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
1:45 PM4.13Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2: A study with a model of intermediate complexity  extended abstract wrf recording
Igor V. Kamenkovich, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. P. Sokolov and P. H. Stone
2:00 PM4.14Precipitation and surface air temperature in the central United States and related physical processes in CMIP2+ simulations  
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and X. Z. Liang
4.15Identifying significant changes in European temperature extremes using Regional Climate Models  
Tom Holt, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom; and J. Palutikof
 
9:45 AM, Tuesday, Hall 4AB
Joint Poster Session 4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions Posters (Joint with the 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and 18th Conf. on Hydrology; Hall 4AB)
Chairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
 JP4.1The Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts in the West African Sahel: Preliminary testing of the HU-RSMCVS model  extended abstract
Andrea M. Sealy, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, C. H. Lu, and H. M. H. Juang
 JP4.2The relationship between soil moisture and climate at seasonal to interannual scales  
Jiarui Dong, GEST/University of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and W. Ni, P. Houser, and R. Koster
 JP4.3Regional scale energy and water flux climatologies as derived from remote sensing inputs and a land-exchange model  extended abstract
John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. C. Anderson, J. A. Otkin, and J. M. Norman
 JP4.4Roles of land use and orography on the simulated summer monsoon over South Asia using a regional climate model  extended abstract
Suhee Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong
 JP4.5Local moisture cycling in the Nebraska Sand Hills -- the key to dune stabilization?  
Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson, D. B. Radell, and D. B. Loope
 JP4.6THE IMPACT OF LOCALLY FORCED DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS ON PREDICTABILITY OVER COMPLEX LANDSCAPES  
Daran L. Rife, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner
 JP4.7Investigation of South American land/atmopshere interactions using the regional Eta/SSiB model  extended abstract
Fernando H. De Sales, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue
 JP4.8Investigating the Role of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Desert Feedback Mechanism During the Active and Break Phases of the Monsoon Using MM5 and ARPS  
Sam Chiao, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Barros
 JP4.9Isolating microscale phenomena from mesoscale observations  extended abstract
Matthew J. Haugland, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
 JP4.10A study of the physical influences on the location and strength of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land.  
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma and P. J. Webster
 JP4.11Relationship between antecedent land surface conditions and precipitation in the North American Monsoon region  
Chunmei Zhu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and T. Cavazos
 JP4.12The Role of Prairie Wetland Extent on the Pre-storm Environment of the Northern Great Plains  extended abstract
W. J. Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, R. D. Farley, K. W. Harding, D. P. Todey, and J. L. Elsen
 JP4.13ENSO effects on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at the Maipo river basin, Chile  extended abstract
Francisco J. Meza, Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Santiago, RM, Chile
 JP4.14Representativeness of Soil Moisture Conditions in Central Oklahoma During the Enhanced Drying Phase  extended abstract
Bradley G. Illston, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. C. Caldwell and S. G. Bodnar
 JP4.15Evaluation of Sahel ground climatology from 1982 to 1990 based on satellite derived LAI, 200 raingauge stations, and a vegetation model (SSiB)  extended abstract
Isabelle Poccard, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue
 JP4.16Testing of several recent modifications to ARPS land surface model  extended abstract
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Ren
 JP4.17On the soil thermal diffusivity and liquid water flux density in a Tibetan short-grass prairie  
Zhiqiu Gao Sr., NPS, MOnterey, CA
 JP4.18The Regional Evapotranspiration of the Amazon  extended abstract
David Werth, Duke University, Durham, NC; and R. Avissar
 JP4.19COMPASS: Coupled models package of surface schemes  
Mariza Costa-Cabral, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Richey, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. Logsdon, S. S. Rodda, E. Mayorga, and A. K. Aufdenkampe
 JP4.20Direct and indirect feedbacks of simultaneous soil moisture and atmospheric CO2 changes on simulated terrestrial ecosystem response  extended abstract
Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue
 JP4.21Global warming effects on Great Lakes water: More precipitation but less water?  extended abstract
Brent M. Lofgren, Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, Ann Arbor, MI
 JP4.22Convective Planetary Boundary Layer Evolution And Land Surface Energy Balance  extended abstract
Joseph A. Santanello Jr., Boston University, Boston, MA; and M. A. Friedl
 JP4.23Impact of GCM climate biases on the simulation of soil moisture memory  
Sarith Mahanama, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster
 Paper JP4.24 moved, new paper number 2.7a  
 JP4.24aSnowpack advances in the Noah land-surface model  
Michael Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Suitland, MD; and K. Mitchell, D. Lohmann, and H. Wei
 JP4.25A west-wide seasonal to interannual hydrologic forecast system  
Andrew W. Wood, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet, S. Babu, and D. P. Lettenmaier
 JP4.26Global energy and water balance simulation with bucket model for GSWP2  extended abstract
Naota Hanasaki, The university of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Kanae and T. Oki
 JP4.27Impact of GCM climate biases on the simulation of soil moisture  
Sarith Mahanama, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster
 JP4.28A tendency towards lower frequency climatic variations in the southwestern U.S. during the past 100 years  
John A. Dracup, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and H. G. Hidalgo
 JP4.29Land surface temperature estimation for hydrological assimilation  
Andrew N French, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and P. Houser, A. Pinheiro, and J. Meng
 JP4.30Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation and Snowpack in the western United States  
Jiming Jin, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and N. L. Miller, S. Sorooshian, and X. Gao
 JP4.31Roughness lengths over snow  extended abstract
Edgar L. Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and R. E. Jordan, P. S. Guest, P. O. G. Persson, A. A. Grachev, and C. W. Fairall
 JP4.32Land-surface issues in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis  
Michael Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Suitland, MD; and K. Mitchell, P. Shafran, and D. Jovic
 JP4.33Using GSWP 2 in a Global Water Cycle Synthesis and Analysis (Formerly paper 1.8)  
C. Adam Schlosser, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, J. K. Entin, and D. R. Belvedere
 JP4.34Land Memory in GSWP 2 and AMIP 2 Simulations (Formerly paper 1.9)  
Adam Schlosser, UMBC/GEST, Baltimore, MD; and R. Koster and P. A. Dirmeyer
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday, Hall 4AB
Poster Session 1 Climate Modeling and Observed Climate Change (Hall 4AB)
 P1.1NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis  extended abstract
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego, E. Kalnay, P. Shafran, W. Ebisuzaki, D. Jovic, J. Woolen, K. Mitchell, E. Rogers, M. Ek, Y. Fan, R. Grumbine, W. Higgins, H. Li, Y. Lin, G. Mankin, D. Parish, and W. Shi
P1.2Diagnosis of Climate Model Physical Parameterizations using NWP protocols – Dependence on Initial Analyses  
Michael Fiorino, LLNL, Livermore, CA
 P1.3Comparison of Global Temperature Trend Between CARDS, NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF Reanalyses Data  
Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry
 P1.4Hindcasting of the climate changes over North Pacific and North America from hindcast of the ocean mixed layer anomalies in the tropical and mid-latitude Pacific  extended abstract
Elena Yulaeva, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and N. Schneider
 P1.5The diurnal cycle of temperature in the free atmosphere estimated from radiosondes  
Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Free
 P1.6The variability of surface cloud radiative forcing over the US  
Haig Iskenderian, Northrop Grumman Information Technology, Reading, MA
 P1.7Three distinct goals for research with climate models  
S. Fred Singer, Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA
 P1.8Seasonal prediction of the regional Eta model in North American climate study  
Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Vasic and Z. Janjic
 P1.9Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM  
Renguang Wu, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman
 P1.10Tropical diabatic heating and the role of convective processes as represented in several contemporary climate models  
Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. O. Roads, R. Oglesby, and S. Marshall
 P1.11Seasonal Climate Signatures in the FSU Climate Model Coupled to the CLM2  
Dong-Wook Shin, COAPS, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Cocke, T. E. LaRow, and J. J. O'Brien
 P1.12Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations  
Mei Zhao, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. Dirmeyer
 P1.13Successful Simulation of the Tropical Western Pacific Precipitation for JJA closely correlated with the Tropical SST for the previous DJF  extended abstract
Tomoaki Ose, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Kitoh
 P1.14The dependence of intrseasonal variability on mixed layer depth in an AGCM coupled to a slab ocean  extended abstract
Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel
 P1.15Enhancing signal-to-noise in regional attribution of anthropogenic climate change  
David J. Karoly, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
 P1.16A nodal line in the sensitivity of climate change to Tropical SSTs  
Joseph J. Barsugli, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and S. I. Shin
 P1.17Use of in-situ observations of Arctic clouds to understand impacts of mixed-phase clouds on single-scattering: properties: applications to climate studies  extended abstract
Greg McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang
 P1.18Observations and stochastic modeling of shortwave radiative transfer at the ARM CART sites  extended abstract wrf recording
Dana E. Lane-Veron, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and J. M. Secora
 P1.19Tropical-extratropical and inter-hemispheric climate interaction: atmospheric bridge and oceanic tunnel  
Haijun Yang, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu
 P1.20Using Neural Networks for Fast and Accurate Approximation of Long Wave Radiation Parameterization in the NCAR Community Model: Evaluation of Computational Performance and Accuracy of Approximation  extended abstract
Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, Univ. of Maryland and SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Fox-Rabinovitz and D. Chalikov
 P1.21Use of GOES solar radiation data to improve long-term retrospective land surface simulations  
Nathalie Voisin, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and R. Pinker
 P1.22Efficient methods for producing temporally and topographically corrected daily climatological data sets for the continental US  
Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. S. Park and D. P. Lettenmaier
 P1.23Downscaling and projection of the wintertime extreme daily precipitation over North America by large-scale atmospheric circulation  extended abstract
Jiafeng Wang, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China and MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and E. Barrow
 P1.24Equatorial superrotation and the factors controlling the zonal-mean zonal winds in the tropics  
Ian P. Kraucunas, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann
 P1.25Extreme value characteristics of daily climate scenarios produced with a stochastic weather generator  
Henry N. Hayhoe, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and B. Qian
 P1.26Long-term atmospheric water budget over NAME domain from radiosonde observations  
Evgeney Yarosh, RSIS, Inc., Camp Springs, MD; and W. Higgins and W. Shi
 P1.27Physical Linkages between ENSO and Tornado Frequency in the United States  
Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. K. Wikle and R. W. Arritt
 P1.28Predicting the Onset of the North American Monsoon and Progress Toward a Mechanistic Understanding  
David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. C. Ivanova, B. L. Hall, M. F. Lavin, D. J. Gochis, and K. T. Redmond
 P1.29Regional characteristics of the decadal and interdecadal variations for global temperature field during the last century  
Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
 Paper P1.30 moved to Session 4, new paper number 4.7A  
 
3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 608
Session 5 Observed Climate Change: Part I (Room 608)
Chair: Dale Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN
3:30 PM5.1Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western north America  extended abstract wrf recording
Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Clark and A. F. Hamlet
3:45 PM5.2Variability and trends in United States snowfall over the last half century  extended abstract wrf recording
Daria Scott, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. Kaiser
4:00 PM5.3Trends in 30-year satellite record of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent  
Donald J. Cavalieri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. L. Parkinson and K. Y. Vinnikov
4:15 PM5.4Historical variability in Arctic surface air temperature records  
James E. Overland, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and M. Spillane and K. Wood
4:30 PM5.5Trends in high clouds over the past 22 years  extended abstract
Donald Wylie, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. L. Jackson, P. Menzel, and J. J. Bates
4:45 PM5.6Assessment of observational biases and changes in Canadian cloudiness  
Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, V. R. Swail, and T. Yuzyk
5:00 PM5.7Evaluation of cloud amount trends and connections to large scale dynamics  extended abstract wrf recording
Todd D. Ellis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and G. L. Stephens and D. W. J. Thompson
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 609/610
Session 6 Radiative Forcing of the Climate: Modeling (Room 609/610)
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
3:30 PM6.1Changes in global ocean cloud cover and related radiation flux since 1952  
Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA
3:45 PM6.2Testing the impact of clouds on the radiation budgets of 19 AMIP models  extended abstract wrf recording
Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and R. D. Cess
4:00 PM6.3Testing AGCM-predicted cloud and radiation properties with ARM data: The super-parameterization approach  extended abstract
Mikhail Ovtchinnikov, PNNL, Richland, WA; and T. Ackerman, R. Marchand, and M. Khairoutdinov
4:15 PM6.4Improving climate projections by empirical quantification of climate forcing by aerosols  
Theodore L. Anderson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. J. Charlson, S. J. Ghan, S. Gasso, C. R. Trepte, C. A. Hostetler, D. M. Winker, L. A. Remer, and J. A. Ogren
4:30 PM6.5Evaluation of AGCM Radiation Parameterizations in the Arctic  extended abstract wrf recording
Dana E. Veron, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and J. F. Brodie, J. O. Pinto, and J. A. Curry
4:45 PM6.6Evaluating new cloud-radiation and hydrologic cycle parameterizations  extended abstract wrf recording
Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville
5:00 PM6.7A new type of idealized global climate model and its application to dust-climate interactions  
Karen M. Shell, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. Somerville
5:15 PM6.8Cloud resolving model simulations of water and energy budgets for the Indian Ocean region: Effects of aerosols on trade wind cumuli  extended abstract wrf recording
Greg McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and H. Wang and W. Grabowski
 
5:30 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day
 
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6C
Session 7 Seasonal prediction (Room 6C)
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:30 AM7.1Experiments in downscaled seasonal forecasting from the ENSO signal: extreme interseasonal and intraseasonal variability of Florida dry season storminess and rainfall and the role of the MJO, PNA, and NAO  extended abstract wrf recording
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and R. J. Almeida
8:45 AM7.2Multi Model Synthetic Superensemble Prediction System  extended abstract
Won-Tae Yun, Korea Meteorological Administration and Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Stefanova and T. N. Krishnamurti
9:00 AM7.3Seasonal prediction effort at NCEP: toward a seamless suite of forecast products  
Wanqiu Wang, SAIC at NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, G. White, and H. L. Pan
9:15 AM7.4Validation and forecast applicability of multi-year global soil wetness products  
Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and Z. Guo and X. Gao
 
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 608
Session 8 Radiative Forcing of the Climate: Observations (Room 608)
Chair: Bryan C. Weare, University of California, Davis, CA
8:30 AM8.1Radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone  extended abstract
W. F. J. Evans, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada; and C. R. Ferguson and E. Puckrin
8:45 AM8.2On the relationship between tropical mean radiation and SST  extended abstract
Bing Lin, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong, B. A. Wielicki, and Y. Hu
8.3Decadal Variations in the Tropical Radiation Budget  
Brian Soden, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ
9:00 AM8.3AIntraseasonal Variations of Earth Radiation Budget: CERES EOS/Terra Observations Versus NCEP Reanalysis 2 Data (Formerly paper JP5.15)  extended abstract
Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith
9:15 AM8.4Cloud forcing in the tropical eastern Pacific  
Meghan F. Cronin, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
 
10:00 AM, Wednesday
Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
 
1:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Room 6C
Session 9 Observed Climate Change: Part II (Room 6C)
Chair: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL
1:30 PM9.1Interannual and long-term changes in middle atmosphere temperature from HALOE  extended abstract
Ellis Remsberg, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and L. Deaver
1:45 PM9.2Update on Microwave-Based Atmospheric Temperatures by UAH  extended abstract
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and D. Braswell
2:00 PM9.3A Self-Consistent Analysis of Climate Trend in MSU/AMSU Satellite Observations  
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and N. C. Grody
2:15 PM9.4Describing global temperature changes during the past half century  
Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD
2:30 PMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
4:00 PM9.5Some Trends of Relative Sea Level in The Pacific  
Bernard J. Kilonsky, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Merrifield
4:15 PM9.6Recent trends in the Southern Oscillation  
Todd Mitchell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
4:30 PM9.7Interdecadal Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones  
Melissa Free, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Bister and K. Emanuel
4:45 PM9.8Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico  
Tereza Cavazos, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, B. C., Mexico; and D. Rivas
5:00 PM9.9Detecting Arctic climate change using Köppen climate classification and satellite NDVI  
Muyin Wang, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Hall 4AB
Joint Poster Session 5 Climate Variability (JOINT with THE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY; Hall 4AB) (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Chair: David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ
 JP5.1Nonlinear patterns of North American winter surface air temperatures associated with El Niño/La Niña  
Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Shabbar
 JP5.2The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its role in cold-season tornado outbreak climatology  extended abstract
Katherine H. Nunn, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano
 JP5.3El Niño and precipitation in the peruvian Andes  
Pablo Lagos, Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru; and Y. Silva and E. Nickl
 JP5.4Nonlinear Complex Principal Component Analysis, with Applications to Tropical Pacific Wind Variability  
Sanjay S.P. Rattan, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh
 JP5.5Propagation and the Vertical Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation  
Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL, Livermore, CA
 JP5.6Interannual and interdecadal variability in the Pacific region SST anomaly patterns and their impact on local climate  extended abstract
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and F. A. Akyuz, I. I. Mokhov, E. P. Kelsey, D. K. Weitlich, and J. E. Woolard
 JP5.7The impact of teleconnection patterns on air mass frequency and character in North American winters  
Melissa Lynn Malin, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, Newark, DE
 JP5.8Northern Hemisphere snow cover variability  
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ
 JP5.9A climate report card for New Jersey  
David A. Robinson, Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and J. Parlagreco
JP5.10Examining the frequency of daily extreme events during Oklahoma’s climate record  
Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer
 JP5.11The Recent Increase in Western US Streamflow Variability and Persistence  extended abstract
Thomas C. Pagano, USDA/Natural Resources Conservation Service/National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR; and D. Garen
 JP5.12Wind climate analyses for a 61-m tower in the Southeast  extended abstract
Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley and R. J. Kurzeja
 JP5.13Intraseasonal variability of subtropical cyclone occurrence in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean  extended abstract
Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin
 JP5.14Interannual variability of North America summer precipitation in CAM2.0 and NSIPP AMIP-like simulations  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam
 Paper JP5.15 moved to session 8 in the 15th Symp on Global Change/Climate Variations, new paper number 8.3A  
 JP5.16Global Precipitation Climatology from AMSU Passive Microwave Satellite Observations  extended abstract
Frederick W. Chen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. H. Staelin
 JP5.17High-latitude cloud and surface radiative properties from space  
Joannes Berque, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Lubin and R. Somerville
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Hall 4AB
Poster Session 2 Atmospheric Oscillations and Boundary Layer Processes (Hall 4AB)
P2.1Propagation mechanism of boreal summertime intraseasonal oscillation  
Kyong-Hwan Seo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Y. Kim and J. E. Schemm
 P2.2Red Shift Phenomena Revealed in the Zonal Winds Oscillations Probably Induced by the Sunspot Cycle  extended abstract
G.-H. Lim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and A. -. S. Suh and Y. Suh
 P2.3The Madden-Julian Oscillation Signal in the Arctic Oscillation  extended abstract
Jee-Hoon Jeong, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and C. H. Ho
 P2.4Wave-mean-flow interaction and the annular mode  
David J. Lorenz, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann
 P2.5On the relationship between very low frequency North Pacific SSTA and global climate variations  extended abstract
Sang-Wook Yeh, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman
 P2.6A seasonal intercomparison of the dominant modes of climatic variability  
Kevin J. Rennert, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
 P2.7Indian Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations  
Galina Chirokova, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster
 P2.8Assessing the influence of decadal climate variability and climate change on snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest  
Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. Mote and D. P. Lettenmaier
 P2.9Synoptic disturbances in the east Pacific ITCZ and their effect on the boundary layer  
Yolande Serra, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Cronin and M. McPhaden
 P2.10A Theory for Long Term Changes in the General Circulation—Corilis effect in the Solar System  extended abstract
John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling
 P2.11Does the Antarctic Oscillation Modulate Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwestern Pacific  extended abstract
Joo-Hong Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and C. H. Ho
 P2.12Comparing convergence and/or moist-air advection zones from TPW analyses  
Arief Sudradjat, University of Maryland and CICS/ESSIC, College Park, MD; and R. Ferraro
 P2.13Satellite Observations of Ocean Moisture Advection and its Effect on South American Low Level Jet and Hydrological Balances  
Xiaosu Xie, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu and W. Tang
 P2.14Simple Experiments on the Relationship of Air Temperature to SST in the Tropics  
Philip J. Regulski, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann
P2.15Synoptic climatology of PM2.5 and PM10 in Tucson, Arizona  
Richard R. Brandt, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and U. Barbosa, D. P. Brown, M. A. Crimmins, H. Yuan, S. Helfrich, T. S. Wilson, and A. C. Comrie
 P2.16Near-surface flow regimes: Recent changes and tools for prognoses  extended abstract
S.C. Pryor, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and J. T. Schoof and R. J. Barthelmie
 P2.17Planetary Boundary Layer Height: Lidar and Radiosonde based Observations  extended abstract
Segayle C. Walford, Howard University, Washington, DC; and B. B. Demoz and E. Joseph
 P2.18A fire scenario builder for coarse-scale modeling of current and future fire effects based on future climate scenarios  
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and D. McKenzie, S. M. O'Neill, S. Ferguson, and D. V. Sandberg
 P2.19The International Polar Year 2007–2008  
Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC; and C. Elfring
 P2.20Seasonal heat budget of the California Current  extended abstract
Kathleen A. Edwards, APL and Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. A. Kelly
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 609/610
Joint Session 4 Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with the 15th Symp on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conf on Applied Climatology (Room 609/610)
Chair: Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV
4:00 PMJ4.1Forecasting Rainfall and Floods in Bangladesh on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales: Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (Formerly Poster JP1.12)  
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and A. R. Subbiah, T. M. Hopson, C. Hoyos, R. L. Grossman, H. -. R. Chang, K. Sahami, T. N. Palmer, D. L. T. Anderson, and A. Hossain
J4.1AWinter Precipitation Forecasts over the Southern High Plains  
Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX
4:15 PMJ4.2Helping resource managers apply seasonal predictions: considerations of equity in providing knowledge development and decision support tools  
Holly C. Hartmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and B. Imam, E. Lay, D. Lamb, and S. Sorooshian
4:30 PMJ4.3National Long-range Hydrologic Prediction System  extended abstract wrf recording
Qingyun Duan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake
4:45 PMJ4.4Use of a weather generator to disaggregate seasonal forecasts: Application to forecasting streamflow  
M. P. Clark, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Hay and S. Gangopadhyay
5:00 PMJ4.5Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks  extended abstract wrf recording
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and G. G. Garfin, T. Wordell, R. Ochoa, and B. Morehouse
5:15 PMJ4.6The North American (Mexican) Monsoon: MM5 modeling study implications  
Dorothea Ivanova, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell
 
5:30 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day
 
6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
 
7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet
 
Thursday, 15 January 2004
8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Room 6C
Joint Session 13 Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University
8:30 AMJ13.1Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño  
Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
8:45 AMJ13.2Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos  
Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen
9:00 AMJ13.3The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño  
Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison
9:15 AMJ13.4The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade  
Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert
J13.5TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño  
Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Adler
9:30 AMJ13.6Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP  
Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
11:00 AMJ13.7Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations  extended abstract
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan
11:15 AMJ13.8Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system  
Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne
11:30 AMJ13.9The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts  
Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
11:45 AMJ13.10Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data  
Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua
12:00 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PMJ13.11Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction  
Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
2:00 PMJ13.12Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles  extended abstract wrf recording
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay
J13.13Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles  
Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James
2:15 PMJ13.14ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement  
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky
2:30 PMJ13.15Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations  
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
2:45 PMJ13.16Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory  
Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PMJ13.17Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability  
Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole
3:45 PMJ13.18POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey
4:00 PMJ13.19Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model  
Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin
4:15 PMJ13.20aA Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models  
D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 609/610
Joint Session 5 Climate Change and Urban Areas (Joint with the Symp. on Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone and 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations; Room 609/610)
Chair: Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AMJ5.1Detection of urban effects in the climate record  
Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
9:00 AMJ5.2Impact of land-use change and urbanization on climate  extended abstract wrf recording
Ming Cai, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Li and E. Kalnay
9:15 AMJ5.3The impact of climate change on our cities  extended abstract wrf recording
Martin Best, Met Office, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and R. Betts
9:30 AMJ5.4Modeling future climate and air quality in the New York City metropolitan area  
Kevin L. Civerolo, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY; and J. Biswas, C. Hogrefe, J. Rosenthal, K. Knowlton, B. Lynn, J. Y. Ku, R. Goldberg, C. Rosenzweig, and P. Kinney
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 608
Session 10 Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part II (Room 608)
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
8:30 AM10.1The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Evaluating climate models in a weather forecasting framework  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and G. L. Potter, D. L. Williamson, R. T. Cederwall, J. S. Boyle, M. Fiorino, J. J. Hnilo, J. G. Olson, S. Xie, and J. J. Yio
8:45 AM10.2Stochastic climate simulators for diagnosing regional climate variability and model physics  
John W. Bergman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland
9:00 AM10.3The Effect of Subtropical/Extratropical Cooling on the Magnitude of El Niño Warming: A Numerical Study  
De-Zheng Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. Zhang and S. I. Shin
9:15 AM10.4Projecting climate change in mesoscale river basins  
Eric P Salathé Jr., JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
9:30 AM10.5Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity  extended abstract wrf recording
Michael Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert and G. Walker
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday, Hall 4AB
Poster Session 3 ENSO and Monsoons (Hall 4AB)
P3.1Variability of ENSO during the twentieth century: Evidence from three western Pacific islands  
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO
 P3.2The global nonlinear impact of SST changes in the central tropical Pacific  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo
P3.3Establishment of the low-level wind anomalies over the western North Pacific during ENSO development  
Chia Chou, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan
 P3.4Differences between the North Pacific and ENSO Modes  extended abstract
Soon-Il An, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang
 P3.5Changes in the Intraseasonal Variability of Precipitation over the United States Associated with ENSO  extended abstract
David Small, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH; and S. Islam
 P3.6Spatial coherence of Southwest U. S. rainfall on intraseasonal and interannual timescales  
Eileen A. Hall-McKim, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis
 P3.7Atmospheric circulation associated to extreme rainfall events in Piura, Peru, in 2002  extended abstract
Ken Takahashi, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
 P3.8 TRMM and the global interannual variability of rain over the past five decades  extended abstract
Ziad S. Haddad, JPL and California Institute of Technical, Pasadena, CA; and J. P. Meagher, R. F. Adler, E. Smith, E. Im, and S. L. Durden
 P3.9Low-frequency rainfall variability in northwest Africa and the Sahelian and Sudanian zones  extended abstract
Jon M. Schrage, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink, T. Bruecher, M. Christoph, P. Knippertz, and P. Speth
 P3.10Nonlinear response of the N. Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation to El Niño/La Niña  
Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh
P3.11The relationship between the Tibetan Plateau heating and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and X. Liu
 P3.12Study of East Asian Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability  
Jun Jian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
 P3.13Relation between Winter Monsoon Index and Air Temperature around Korean Peninsula  
Yong-Hoon Youn, Meteorological Research Institute, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and I. S. Oh and H. S. Chung
 
11:00 AM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 608
Session 11 Observed Seasonal/Interannual Variability (Room 608)
Chair: Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
11:00 AM11.1The climate of 2003 in historical perspective  
Levinson David, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Lawrimore, R. Heim, A. Waple, S. Stephens, and C. Tankerlsey
11:15 AM11.2Mechanisms of land rainfall anomalies associated with tropical Atlantic variability  
J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. Su
11:30 AM11.3The Scatter in Tropical Average Precipitation Anomalies  
Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
11:45 AM11.4Intraseasonal modulation of precipitation over the North American monsoon region  extended abstract wrf recording
George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and E. Hall-McKim
12:00 PM11.5Nonlinear Scale Interactions Via Energy Exchanges Between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation  extended abstract
L. Stefanova, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti
12:15 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PM11.6On the North Atlantic decadal variability  
Lixin Wu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu
1:45 PM11.7Mechanisms for intraseasonal variability in the Northern Annular Mode  
Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and B. A. McDaniel
2:00 PM11.8A Physically-Consistent Long-term Reconstruction of the Northern Annular Mode Using Tree Rings  
Justin J. Wettstein, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
2:15 PM11.9Linear atmospheric response to ENSO associated SST meridional differential  
Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD
2:30 PM11.10A Model Study of Intraseasonal Oscillations over South America South America  extended abstract
Baode Chen, GEST, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. Chao
2:45 PM11.11Guinea Gulf SST and Mediterranean Summer Climate: analysis of the interannual variabilty  extended abstract wrf recording
Marina Baldi, IbiMet - CNR, Rome, Italy; and F. Meneguzzo, G. Dalu, G. Maracchi, M. Pasqui, V. Capecchi, A. Crisci, and F. Piani
 
3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
 
3:00 PM, Thursday
Registration Desk Closes
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Room 609/610
Joint Session 6 Observed Climate Variability (JOINT with THE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (Room 609/610) (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Chair: Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY
3:30 PMJ6.1Verifying the Reanalysis and climate models outputs using a 56-Year data set of reconstructed global precipitation  extended abstract wrf recording
Mingyue Chen, RS Information Systems, Inc., Camp Springs, MD; and P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and T. M. Smith
3:45 PMJ6.2Low Latitude Zonally Symmetric Circulations in the NCEP Reanalyses  
Ioana M. Dima, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
4:00 PMJ6.3The NAM and PNA-like Patterns: Basis Functions for Northern Hemisphere Low Frequency Variability  
Roberta Quadrelli, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
J6.4The Storms of 2003 in the Midwest  
Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and S. D. Hilberg, J. R. Angel, and S. A. Changnon
4:15 PMJ6.5Recent climate variability in Antarctica from satellite-derived temperature data  extended abstract wrf recording
David P. Schneider, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. J. Steig and J. Comiso
4:30 PMJ6.6Monitoring climate change from geostationary satellites  extended abstract wrf recording
Herbert Jacobowitz, Short & Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, MD; and G. J. Dittberner and J. J. Gurka
4:45 PMJ6.7Temporal variations in model derived evaporation in the northeastern and midwestern U.S.  extended abstract wrf recording
Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. L. Eggleston
5:00 PMJ6.8Geostatistical Analysis of local versus Regional Feedback on Regional Climate: Synthesis of Insitu Observations and Global Analysis over Senegal, Western Africa  extended abstract
Souleymane Fall, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Niyogi, F. Semazzi, R. Anyah, and J. Bowden
 
5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends
 
6:00 PM, Thursday
Norm Phillips Banquet
 

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