* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Student Conference Registration
Sunday, 11 January 2004
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course Registration
	9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 12 January 2004
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Room 6C Session 1 Seasonal Prediction (Room 6C)
Chair: John E. Janowiak, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
1.1 A comparison of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and COADS El Nino and La Nina composite anomaly lifecycles.   Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison and S. Ferguson 9:00 AM 1.2 Multiscale evolution and predictability of a warm season climate anomaly in the U.S. southern Great Plains   Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. Lamb 9:15 AM 1.3 Warm Season Precipitation Prediction over North America with Eta Regional Climate Model   Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell 9:30 AM 1.4 Usefulness of recent NOAA/CPC seasonal temperature forecasts   Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. D. Garbrecht 9:45 AM 1.5 Seasonal prediction of Pacific island rainfall using artificial intelligence   Mark L. Morrissey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
	9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Room 608 Session 2 Climate Observations (Room 608)
Chair: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
9:00 AM 2.1 NWS Plans for Upper Air System Data Continuity   Joseph Facundo, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. Bower 9:15 AM 2.2 A new Radiosonde dataset for climate studies   Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC 9:30 AM 2.3 Global large-scale precipitation: Seasonal and interannual variations in the merged analyses, reanalysis and NCEP/GFS model outputs   Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. J. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and M. Chen 9:45 AM 2.4 The next-generation PACRAIN database   Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey, J. S. Greene, and S. Postawko 10:00 AM 2.5 Stratocumulus and climate: observations from EPIC 2001   Kimberly Comstock, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Bretherton, S. Yuter, and R. Wood
	10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
	10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 6C Joint Session 1 Climate Trends (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)
10:45 AM J1.1 Economic signals in global temperature histories   Patrick J. Michaels, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA and the Cato Institute, Washington, DC; and R. McKitrick and P. C. Knappenberger 11:00 AM J1.2 Irrigation-induced warming in Central California?   John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and W. B. Norris 11:15 AM J1.3 Trends in time-varying percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature over North America   Scott M. Robeson, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 11:30 AM J1.4 Is the 50-year trend in tropical Indo-Pacific SSTs significant?   Cécile Penland, NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh 11:45 AM J1.5 AO, COWL and observed climate trends   Qigang Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD; and D. M. Straus
	10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 608 Session 3 Atmospheric Oscillations (Room 608)
Chair: Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
10:45 AM 3.1 Mid-latitude atmospheric influence on tropical Pacific climate variability   Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 11:00 AM 3.2 The Impact of ENSO on the NAO variability   Zhaohua Wu, COLA, Calverton, MD; and E. Schneider and B. Kirtman 11:15 AM 3.3 Diagnosing the Effect of ENSO and PDO associated Summer Teleconnections in North America with a regional climate model   Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr. 11:30 AM 3.4 Aspects of the Heat Balance of the Indian Ocean on Interseasonal and Interannual Timscales   Kamran Sahami, Univerity of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster 11:45 AM 3.5 Dynamic Origin of Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the Stormy Atmospheric Circulation   Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. L. Pan and M. Watanabe
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 6C Joint Session 2 Drought: Variability Monitoring, Impacts, and Prediction (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)
Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; Greg Johnson, USDA/NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR
1:30 PM J2.1 Paleodrought reconstructions to planning   Connie A. Woodhouse, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Webb 1:45 PM J2.2 Ensemble Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow in the South Platte   Robert S. Webb, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Woodhouse 2:00 PM J2.3 ENSO and the changing landscape of drought   Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY 2:15 PM J2.4 Recent Advances in Drought Monitoring   Mark D. Svoboda, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. J. Hayes, D. A. Wilhite, and T. Tadesse 2:30 PM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   4:00 PM J2.5 Putting recent U.S. and Southwest drought impacts in perspective   Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 4:15 PM J2.6 Estimating the Economic Impacts of Drought   Michael J. Hayes, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda, C. L. Knutson, and D. A. Wilhite J2.7 Predicting drought vulnerability in the Mediterranean   Jean P. Palutikof, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. Holt 4:30 PM J2.7A The Drought of 2002 in Colorado (Formerly Poster JP3.6)   Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, Sr. 4:45 PM J2.8 The recent 4-year drought: Global Warming or La Nina?   Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo 5:00 PM J2.9 Regional Drought Driven by Tropical Ocean Warming   Martin Hoerling, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Hurrell 5:15 PM J2.10 CMORPH: An 8KM, Half-Hourly Global Precipitation Monitoring Tool   John Janowiak, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Joyce, P. Arkin, and P. Xie
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB Joint Poster Session 1 Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Hall 4AB)
JP1.1 Value of climate forecasts with marginal to modest skill to real users   Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. E. Mayes   JP1.2 Sources of skill and error in long range Columbia River streamflow forecasts: a comparison of the role of hydrologic state variables and winter climate forecasts   Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Wood, S. Babu, and D. P. Lettenmaier   JP1.3 “Climate Sensitive” Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Research: Origins, Development and Future   Harvey Hilll, UCAR, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Pulwarty and C. Nierenberg   JP1.4 Verification of specific station forecasts based on ENSO composites and CPC Nino 3.4 forecasts   Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Staudenmaier, D. Unger, E. Petrescu, A. Bair, W. Higgins, and H. K. Kim   JP1.5 Application of CPC Method to Downscale Seasonal Outlooks from Forecast Divisions to Station Locations   Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Bair and D. Unger   JP1.6 Weather derivatives as a vehicle to realise the skill of seasonal forecasts   Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorlogy, Melbourne, Australia; and S. S. Dawkins   JP1.7 Moving water from theory and farms—the Colorado water bank experiment   John D. Wiener, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO   JP1.8 Wavelet Analysis on Variability, Teleconnectivity and Predictability of East Africa Rainfall   Davison Mwale, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and T. Y. Gan and S. Shen   JP1.9 Forecasting drought in the Murray-Darling Basin at seasonal to interannual time scales   Gavin J. Bowden, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Barros   JP1.10 ENSO events, rainfall variability and the potential of SOI for the seasonal precipitation predictions in the south of Córdoba-Argentina   Roberto A. Seiler, Univ. of Río Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; and M. G. Vinocur   JP1.11 Analysis of sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics from a nested modeling system for South America   Anji Seth, International Research Insititute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and M. Rojas
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB Joint Poster Session 2 Climate Trends (Joint with the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Hall 4AB)
Chair: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL
JP2.1 Temporal changes in dew point temperatures associated with short-duration heat waves in Chicago   David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and M. Sandstrom and C. Schaffer   JP2.2 Visibility trends for coastal regions   Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley   JP2.3 Trends in Relative Humidity in Canada from 1953–2003   William A. Van Wijngaarden, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and L. A. Vincent   JP2.4 Variations and trends in climate indices for Canada   Lucie A. Vincent, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and É. Mekis   JP2.5 Changes of seasonality and phenological cycles in South Korea   Gwangyong Choi, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and W. T. Kwon and D. A. Robinson   JP2.6 Climate analysis and prediction over the Arno river basin, Italy   Francesco Meneguzzo, Institute of Biometeorology /National Research Council, Firenze, Italy; and G. Menduni, G. Maracchi, M. Baldi, G. Brandani, A. Crisci, F. Marrese, M. Pasqui, and F. Piani
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB Joint Poster Session 3 DROUGHT: VARIABILITY MONITORING, IMPACTS, AND PREDICTION (JOINT withTHE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY; Hall 4AB) (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Chair: Phillip A. Pasteris, Global Water Resources, Portland, OR
JP3.1 Paleoclimatology: A New Tool in Drought Monitoring   C. Mark Eakin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Woodhouse, E. R. Cook, and R. Heim   JP3.2 Real-time Soil Moisture Information for Drought Monitoring and Assessment   Bradley G. Illston, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. B. Basara, C. Fiebrich, M. Wolfibarger, G. McManus, and D. Arndt   JP3.3 Linking Drought Vulnerable Soil Landscapes with Placement of Climate Stations for Monitoring Drought   Phillip Pasteris, USDA, Portland, OR; and S. Waltman, G. Schaefer, and R. Sinclair   JP3.4 Drought and the modernized cooperative observer network   Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer and K. C. Crawford JP3.5 Comparison of different evaporation/transpiration schemes using field observations   Tiffannee Jones, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Niyogi   Poster JP3.6 moved, now Paper J2.7A     JP3.7 A Climatology of drought for Arizona   Jenna C. McPhee, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. C. Comrie and G. G. Garfin
	5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
	5:30 PM, Monday Sessions end for the Day
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
	8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6C Joint Session 12 Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office
8:30 AM J12.1 Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction   Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 8:45 AM J12.2 The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts   Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 9:00 AM J12.3 Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability   Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY 9:15 AM J12.4 The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Wintertime Surface Air Temperatures   Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond 9:30 AM J12.5 Analytic Approximation of MJO-like Systems in Super-parameterization   Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   11:00 AM J12.6 Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model   Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan 11:15 AM J12.7 Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM   Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang J12.8 Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting   Guocheng Yuan, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and W. Wang 11:30 AM J12.9 Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM   W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg 11:45 AM J12.10 The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling   Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM J12.11 A study of subseasonal predictability   Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh 1:45 PM J12.12 The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies   Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay 2:00 PM J12.13 A Synoptic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction   Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry 2:15 PM J12.14 Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction   Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha 2:30 PM J12.15 Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods   Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares 2:45 PM J12.16 Probabilistic Forecasting of South-East Asian Intraseasonal Variability using a Wavelet Banding Technique   Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 3:00 PM Coffee Break In Exhibit Hall   3:30 PM J12.17 Improved intraseasonal South Asian monsoon forecasts using a GCM by comparison to wavelet analysis of empirical precipitation data   Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Hoyos and P. J. Webster 3:45 PM J12.18 Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics   Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson 4:00 PM J12.19 Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method   Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool 4:15 PM J12.20 Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation   Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker 4:30 PM J12.21 Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts   Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill 4:45 PM J12.22 A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala   K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi 5:00 PM J12.23 International stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP): Initial results on exploring the new approach to regional climate modeling and prediction ( Formerly paper j13.20)   Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Cote, M. Deque, B. Dugas, and J. McGregor
	8:30 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 609/610 Joint Session 3 Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Joint with the 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and 18th Conf on Hydrology; Room 609/610)
Organizers: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AM J3.1 The contribution of land-atmosphere interaction to boreal summer season predictability   Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and M. Zhao and J. Shukla 8:45 AM J3.2 Alternative approaches to land initialization for seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts   Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, P. Liu, and U. Jambor 9:00 AM J3.3 Impact of land-surface initial conditions spin-up on warm season predictability by the NCEP GFS coupled with the Noah LSM   Cheng-Hsuan Lu, RSIS Inc. McLean, VA and EMC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell 9:15 AM J3.4 Role of land surface processes in monsoon development—EAST ASIA AND WEST AFRICA   Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. -. M. Juang, W. -. P. Li, S. Prince, R. DeFries, and Y. Jiao 9:30 AM J3.5 A stratified diagnosis of the Indian monsoon—Eurasian snow cover relationship   J. Fasullo, PAOS, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM Coffee Break with Formal Poster Viewing   11:00 AM J3.6 A soil moisture initialization method, based on antecedent precipitation approach, for Regional Atmospheric Modeling System: a sensitivity study on precipitation and temperature   Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council (IBIMET-CNR), Florence, Italy; and C. J. Tremback, F. Meneguzzo, G. Giuliani, and B. Gozzini 11:15 AM J3.7 The Mesoscale Impact of Oklahoma's Winter Wheat Belt   Renee A. McPherson, OCS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and K. C. Crawford 11:30 AM J3.8 Contrasting land surface processes over basins of the Americas using Eta model forecasts   Ernesto Hugo Berbery, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Luo, K. Mitchell, and A. K. Betts 11:45 AM J3.9 Why are the lower level cumulus clouds often better organized on the east bank of the Tapajos River? -- a mechanistic study   Lixin Lu, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Denning, M. Silva Dias, and P. Silva Dias 12:00 PM J3.10 GLACE: An intercomparison of land-atmosphere coupling strength across a range of atmospheric general circulation models   Zhichang Guo, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. Dirmeyer and R. D. Koster
	8:30 AM-3:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 608 Session 4 Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part I (Room 608)
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
8:30 AM 4.1 An appraisal of the state of the art of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs   Curt Covey, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. M. AchuaRao, M. Fiorino, P. J. Gleckler, T. J. Phillips, K. R. Sperber, and K. E. Taylor 8:45 AM 4.2 Climate feedbacks in the GFDL AM2 model   Anthony J. Broccoli, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 9:00 AM 4.3 Changes of Precipitation Characteristics by Global Warming Simulated by the MRI CGCM   Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Hosaka, Y. Adachi, and Y. Murata 4.4 The contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings to recent trends in the Southern Hemisphere   Julie M. Arblaster, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:15 AM 4.5 Climate change predicted by the CNRM Climate Model: comparison between coupled and forced experiments   Herve Douville, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France 9:30 AM 4.6 Assessment of changes in winter extratropical cyclones with increasing CO2   Eun-Pa Lim, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and I. Simmonds 9:45 AM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   4.7 SST perturbation experiments in the CSU general circulation model: Impact on simulated cloud types   Laura D. Fowler, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall 11:00 AM 4.7a INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS IN AGCM SIMULATION SKILLS (Formerly paper P1.30)   Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil; and A. Sahai 11:15 AM 4.8 An evaluation of two GCMs: North American teleconnections and synoptic phenomena   J. T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. C. Pryor 11:30 AM 4.9 Comparison of regional climate scenarios for the Carpathian Basin generated by statistical and dynamical methods   Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Matyasovszky, and V. Schlanger 11:45 AM 4.10 The Madden-Julian Oscillation in GCMs   Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL/PCMDI, Livermore, CA; and J. M. Slingo, P. M. Inness, S. Gualdi, W. Li, P. J. Gleckler, and C. Doutriaux 12:00 PM Lunch Break   4.11 The Varying Importance of Air-Sea Interactions to MJO in the Indo-Pacific Ocean   Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA; and S. P. Weng and H. Hu 1:30 PM 4.12 A mechanism of the MJO based on interactions in the frequency domain   T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. R. Chakraborty, N. Cubukcu, L. Stefanova, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar 1:45 PM 4.13 Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2: A study with a model of intermediate complexity   Igor V. Kamenkovich, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. P. Sokolov and P. H. Stone 2:00 PM 4.14 Precipitation and surface air temperature in the central United States and related physical processes in CMIP2+ simulations   Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and X. Z. Liang 4.15 Identifying significant changes in European temperature extremes using Regional Climate Models   Tom Holt, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom; and J. Palutikof
	9:45 AM, Tuesday, Hall 4AB Joint Poster Session 4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions Posters (Joint with the 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and 18th Conf. on Hydrology; Hall 4AB)
Chairs: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
JP4.1 The Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts in the West African Sahel: Preliminary testing of the HU-RSMCVS model   Andrea M. Sealy, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, C. H. Lu, and H. M. H. Juang   JP4.2 The relationship between soil moisture and climate at seasonal to interannual scales   Jiarui Dong, GEST/University of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and W. Ni, P. Houser, and R. Koster   JP4.3 Regional scale energy and water flux climatologies as derived from remote sensing inputs and a land-exchange model   John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. C. Anderson, J. A. Otkin, and J. M. Norman   JP4.4 Roles of land use and orography on the simulated summer monsoon over South Asia using a regional climate model   Suhee Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong   JP4.5 Local moisture cycling in the Nebraska Sand Hills -- the key to dune stabilization?   Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson, D. B. Radell, and D. B. Loope   JP4.6 THE IMPACT OF LOCALLY FORCED DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS ON PREDICTABILITY OVER COMPLEX LANDSCAPES   Daran L. Rife, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner   JP4.7 Investigation of South American land/atmopshere interactions using the regional Eta/SSiB model   Fernando H. De Sales, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue   JP4.8 Investigating the Role of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Desert Feedback Mechanism During the Active and Break Phases of the Monsoon Using MM5 and ARPS   Sam Chiao, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Barros   JP4.9 Isolating microscale phenomena from mesoscale observations   Matthew J. Haugland, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK   JP4.10 A study of the physical influences on the location and strength of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land.   Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma and P. J. Webster   JP4.11 Relationship between antecedent land surface conditions and precipitation in the North American Monsoon region   Chunmei Zhu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and T. Cavazos   JP4.12 The Role of Prairie Wetland Extent on the Pre-storm Environment of the Northern Great Plains   W. J. Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, R. D. Farley, K. W. Harding, D. P. Todey, and J. L. Elsen   JP4.13 ENSO effects on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at the Maipo river basin, Chile   Francisco J. Meza, Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Santiago, RM, Chile   JP4.14 Representativeness of Soil Moisture Conditions in Central Oklahoma During the Enhanced Drying Phase   Bradley G. Illston, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. C. Caldwell and S. G. Bodnar   JP4.15 Evaluation of Sahel ground climatology from 1982 to 1990 based on satellite derived LAI, 200 raingauge stations, and a vegetation model (SSiB)   Isabelle Poccard, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Xue   JP4.16 Testing of several recent modifications to ARPS land surface model   Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Ren   JP4.17 On the soil thermal diffusivity and liquid water flux density in a Tibetan short-grass prairie   Zhiqiu Gao Sr., NPS, MOnterey, CA   JP4.18 The Regional Evapotranspiration of the Amazon   David Werth, Duke University, Durham, NC; and R. Avissar   JP4.19 COMPASS: Coupled models package of surface schemes   Mariza Costa-Cabral, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Richey, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. Logsdon, S. S. Rodda, E. Mayorga, and A. K. Aufdenkampe   JP4.20 Direct and indirect feedbacks of simultaneous soil moisture and atmospheric CO2 changes on simulated terrestrial ecosystem response   Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue   JP4.21 Global warming effects on Great Lakes water: More precipitation but less water?   Brent M. Lofgren, Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, Ann Arbor, MI   JP4.22 Convective Planetary Boundary Layer Evolution And Land Surface Energy Balance   Joseph A. Santanello Jr., Boston University, Boston, MA; and M. A. Friedl   JP4.23 Impact of GCM climate biases on the simulation of soil moisture memory   Sarith Mahanama, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster   Paper JP4.24 moved, new paper number 2.7a     JP4.24a Snowpack advances in the Noah land-surface model   Michael Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Suitland, MD; and K. Mitchell, D. Lohmann, and H. Wei   JP4.25 A west-wide seasonal to interannual hydrologic forecast system   Andrew W. Wood, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet, S. Babu, and D. P. Lettenmaier   JP4.26 Global energy and water balance simulation with bucket model for GSWP2   Naota Hanasaki, The university of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Kanae and T. Oki   JP4.27 Impact of GCM climate biases on the simulation of soil moisture   Sarith Mahanama, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster   JP4.28 A tendency towards lower frequency climatic variations in the southwestern U.S. during the past 100 years   John A. Dracup, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and H. G. Hidalgo   JP4.29 Land surface temperature estimation for hydrological assimilation   Andrew N French, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and P. Houser, A. Pinheiro, and J. Meng   JP4.30 Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation and Snowpack in the western United States   Jiming Jin, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and N. L. Miller, S. Sorooshian, and X. Gao   JP4.31 Roughness lengths over snow   Edgar L. Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and R. E. Jordan, P. S. Guest, P. O. G. Persson, A. A. Grachev, and C. W. Fairall   JP4.32 Land-surface issues in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis   Michael Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Suitland, MD; and K. Mitchell, P. Shafran, and D. Jovic   JP4.33 Using GSWP 2 in a Global Water Cycle Synthesis and Analysis (Formerly paper 1.8)   C. Adam Schlosser, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, J. K. Entin, and D. R. Belvedere   JP4.34 Land Memory in GSWP 2 and AMIP 2 Simulations (Formerly paper 1.9)   Adam Schlosser, UMBC/GEST, Baltimore, MD; and R. Koster and P. A. Dirmeyer
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday, Hall 4AB Poster Session 1 Climate Modeling and Observed Climate Change (Hall 4AB)
P1.1 NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego, E. Kalnay, P. Shafran, W. Ebisuzaki, D. Jovic, J. Woolen, K. Mitchell, E. Rogers, M. Ek, Y. Fan, R. Grumbine, W. Higgins, H. Li, Y. Lin, G. Mankin, D. Parish, and W. Shi P1.2 Diagnosis of Climate Model Physical Parameterizations using NWP protocols – Dependence on Initial Analyses   Michael Fiorino, LLNL, Livermore, CA   P1.3 Comparison of Global Temperature Trend Between CARDS, NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF Reanalyses Data   Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry   P1.4 Hindcasting of the climate changes over North Pacific and North America from hindcast of the ocean mixed layer anomalies in the tropical and mid-latitude Pacific   Elena Yulaeva, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and N. Schneider   P1.5 The diurnal cycle of temperature in the free atmosphere estimated from radiosondes   Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Free   P1.6 The variability of surface cloud radiative forcing over the US   Haig Iskenderian, Northrop Grumman Information Technology, Reading, MA   P1.7 Three distinct goals for research with climate models   S. Fred Singer, Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA   P1.8 Seasonal prediction of the regional Eta model in North American climate study   Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Vasic and Z. Janjic   P1.9 Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM   Renguang Wu, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman   P1.10 Tropical diabatic heating and the role of convective processes as represented in several contemporary climate models   Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. O. Roads, R. Oglesby, and S. Marshall   P1.11 Seasonal Climate Signatures in the FSU Climate Model Coupled to the CLM2   Dong-Wook Shin, COAPS, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Cocke, T. E. LaRow, and J. J. O'Brien   P1.12 Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations   Mei Zhao, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. Dirmeyer   P1.13 Successful Simulation of the Tropical Western Pacific Precipitation for JJA closely correlated with the Tropical SST for the previous DJF   Tomoaki Ose, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Kitoh   P1.14 The dependence of intrseasonal variability on mixed layer depth in an AGCM coupled to a slab ocean   Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel   P1.15 Enhancing signal-to-noise in regional attribution of anthropogenic climate change   David J. Karoly, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK   P1.16 A nodal line in the sensitivity of climate change to Tropical SSTs   Joseph J. Barsugli, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and S. I. Shin   P1.17 Use of in-situ observations of Arctic clouds to understand impacts of mixed-phase clouds on single-scattering: properties: applications to climate studies   Greg McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang   P1.18 Observations and stochastic modeling of shortwave radiative transfer at the ARM CART sites   Dana E. Lane-Veron, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and J. M. Secora   P1.19 Tropical-extratropical and inter-hemispheric climate interaction: atmospheric bridge and oceanic tunnel   Haijun Yang, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu   P1.20 Using Neural Networks for Fast and Accurate Approximation of Long Wave Radiation Parameterization in the NCAR Community Model: Evaluation of Computational Performance and Accuracy of Approximation   Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, Univ. of Maryland and SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Fox-Rabinovitz and D. Chalikov   P1.21 Use of GOES solar radiation data to improve long-term retrospective land surface simulations   Nathalie Voisin, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and R. Pinker   P1.22 Efficient methods for producing temporally and topographically corrected daily climatological data sets for the continental US   Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. S. Park and D. P. Lettenmaier   P1.23 Downscaling and projection of the wintertime extreme daily precipitation over North America by large-scale atmospheric circulation   Jiafeng Wang, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China and MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and E. Barrow   P1.24 Equatorial superrotation and the factors controlling the zonal-mean zonal winds in the tropics   Ian P. Kraucunas, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann   P1.25 Extreme value characteristics of daily climate scenarios produced with a stochastic weather generator   Henry N. Hayhoe, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and B. Qian   P1.26 Long-term atmospheric water budget over NAME domain from radiosonde observations   Evgeney Yarosh, RSIS, Inc., Camp Springs, MD; and W. Higgins and W. Shi   P1.27 Physical Linkages between ENSO and Tornado Frequency in the United States   Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. K. Wikle and R. W. Arritt   P1.28 Predicting the Onset of the North American Monsoon and Progress Toward a Mechanistic Understanding   David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. C. Ivanova, B. L. Hall, M. F. Lavin, D. J. Gochis, and K. T. Redmond   P1.29 Regional characteristics of the decadal and interdecadal variations for global temperature field during the last century   Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China   Paper P1.30 moved to Session 4, new paper number 4.7A
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 608 Session 5 Observed Climate Change: Part I (Room 608)
Chair: Dale Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN
3:30 PM 5.1 Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western north America   Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Clark and A. F. Hamlet 3:45 PM 5.2 Variability and trends in United States snowfall over the last half century   Daria Scott, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. Kaiser 4:00 PM 5.3 Trends in 30-year satellite record of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent   Donald J. Cavalieri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. L. Parkinson and K. Y. Vinnikov 4:15 PM 5.4 Historical variability in Arctic surface air temperature records   James E. Overland, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and M. Spillane and K. Wood 4:30 PM 5.5 Trends in high clouds over the past 22 years   Donald Wylie, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. L. Jackson, P. Menzel, and J. J. Bates 4:45 PM 5.6 Assessment of observational biases and changes in Canadian cloudiness   Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, V. R. Swail, and T. Yuzyk 5:00 PM 5.7 Evaluation of cloud amount trends and connections to large scale dynamics   Todd D. Ellis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and G. L. Stephens and D. W. J. Thompson
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 609/610 Session 6 Radiative Forcing of the Climate: Modeling (Room 609/610)
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
3:30 PM 6.1 Changes in global ocean cloud cover and related radiation flux since 1952   Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA 3:45 PM 6.2 Testing the impact of clouds on the radiation budgets of 19 AMIP models   Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and R. D. Cess 4:00 PM 6.3 Testing AGCM-predicted cloud and radiation properties with ARM data: The super-parameterization approach   Mikhail Ovtchinnikov, PNNL, Richland, WA; and T. Ackerman, R. Marchand, and M. Khairoutdinov 4:15 PM 6.4 Improving climate projections by empirical quantification of climate forcing by aerosols   Theodore L. Anderson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. J. Charlson, S. J. Ghan, S. Gasso, C. R. Trepte, C. A. Hostetler, D. M. Winker, L. A. Remer, and J. A. Ogren 4:30 PM 6.5 Evaluation of AGCM Radiation Parameterizations in the Arctic   Dana E. Veron, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and J. F. Brodie, J. O. Pinto, and J. A. Curry 4:45 PM 6.6 Evaluating new cloud-radiation and hydrologic cycle parameterizations   Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville 5:00 PM 6.7 A new type of idealized global climate model and its application to dust-climate interactions   Karen M. Shell, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. Somerville 5:15 PM 6.8 Cloud resolving model simulations of water and energy budgets for the Indian Ocean region: Effects of aerosols on trade wind cumuli   Greg McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and H. Wang and W. Grabowski
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions end for the day
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
	8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6C Session 7 Seasonal prediction (Room 6C)
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
8:30 AM 7.1 Experiments in downscaled seasonal forecasting from the ENSO signal: extreme interseasonal and intraseasonal variability of Florida dry season storminess and rainfall and the role of the MJO, PNA, and NAO   Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and R. J. Almeida 8:45 AM 7.2 Multi Model Synthetic Superensemble Prediction System   Won-Tae Yun, Korea Meteorological Administration and Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Stefanova and T. N. Krishnamurti 9:00 AM 7.3 Seasonal prediction effort at NCEP: toward a seamless suite of forecast products   Wanqiu Wang, SAIC at NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, G. White, and H. L. Pan 9:15 AM 7.4 Validation and forecast applicability of multi-year global soil wetness products   Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and Z. Guo and X. Gao
	8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 608 Session 8 Radiative Forcing of the Climate: Observations (Room 608)
Chair: Bryan C. Weare, University of California, Davis, CA
8:30 AM 8.1 Radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone   W. F. J. Evans, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada; and C. R. Ferguson and E. Puckrin 8:45 AM 8.2 On the relationship between tropical mean radiation and SST   Bing Lin, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong, B. A. Wielicki, and Y. Hu 8.3 Decadal Variations in the Tropical Radiation Budget   Brian Soden, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ 9:00 AM 8.3A Intraseasonal Variations of Earth Radiation Budget: CERES EOS/Terra Observations Versus NCEP Reanalysis 2 Data (Formerly paper JP5.15)   Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith 9:15 AM 8.4 Cloud forcing in the tropical eastern Pacific   Meghan F. Cronin, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
	10:00 AM, Wednesday Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
	1:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Room 6C Session 9 Observed Climate Change: Part II (Room 6C)
Chair: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL
1:30 PM 9.1 Interannual and long-term changes in middle atmosphere temperature from HALOE   Ellis Remsberg, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and L. Deaver 1:45 PM 9.2 Update on Microwave-Based Atmospheric Temperatures by UAH   John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and D. Braswell 2:00 PM 9.3 A Self-Consistent Analysis of Climate Trend in MSU/AMSU Satellite Observations   Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and N. C. Grody 2:15 PM 9.4 Describing global temperature changes during the past half century   Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD 2:30 PM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   4:00 PM 9.5 Some Trends of Relative Sea Level in The Pacific   Bernard J. Kilonsky, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Merrifield 4:15 PM 9.6 Recent trends in the Southern Oscillation   Todd Mitchell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace 4:30 PM 9.7 Interdecadal Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones   Melissa Free, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Bister and K. Emanuel 4:45 PM 9.8 Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico   Tereza Cavazos, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, B. C., Mexico; and D. Rivas 5:00 PM 9.9 Detecting Arctic climate change using Köppen climate classification and satellite NDVI   Muyin Wang, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Hall 4AB Joint Poster Session 5 Climate Variability (JOINT with THE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY; Hall 4AB) (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Chair: David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ
JP5.1 Nonlinear patterns of North American winter surface air temperatures associated with El Niño/La Niña   Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Shabbar   JP5.2 The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its role in cold-season tornado outbreak climatology   Katherine H. Nunn, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano   JP5.3 El Niño and precipitation in the peruvian Andes   Pablo Lagos, Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru; and Y. Silva and E. Nickl   JP5.4 Nonlinear Complex Principal Component Analysis, with Applications to Tropical Pacific Wind Variability   Sanjay S.P. Rattan, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh   JP5.5 Propagation and the Vertical Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Kenneth R. Sperber, LLNL, Livermore, CA   JP5.6 Interannual and interdecadal variability in the Pacific region SST anomaly patterns and their impact on local climate   Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and F. A. Akyuz, I. I. Mokhov, E. P. Kelsey, D. K. Weitlich, and J. E. Woolard   JP5.7 The impact of teleconnection patterns on air mass frequency and character in North American winters   Melissa Lynn Malin, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, Newark, DE   JP5.8 Northern Hemisphere snow cover variability   David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ   JP5.9 A climate report card for New Jersey   David A. Robinson, Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and J. Parlagreco JP5.10 Examining the frequency of daily extreme events during Oklahoma’s climate record   Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer   JP5.11 The Recent Increase in Western US Streamflow Variability and Persistence   Thomas C. Pagano, USDA/Natural Resources Conservation Service/National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR; and D. Garen   JP5.12 Wind climate analyses for a 61-m tower in the Southeast   Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley and R. J. Kurzeja   JP5.13 Intraseasonal variability of subtropical cyclone occurrence in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean   Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin   JP5.14 Interannual variability of North America summer precipitation in CAM2.0 and NSIPP AMIP-like simulations   Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam   Paper JP5.15 moved to session 8 in the 15th Symp on Global Change/Climate Variations, new paper number 8.3A     JP5.16 Global Precipitation Climatology from AMSU Passive Microwave Satellite Observations   Frederick W. Chen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. H. Staelin   JP5.17 High-latitude cloud and surface radiative properties from space   Joannes Berque, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Lubin and R. Somerville
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Hall 4AB Poster Session 2 Atmospheric Oscillations and Boundary Layer Processes (Hall 4AB)
P2.1 Propagation mechanism of boreal summertime intraseasonal oscillation   Kyong-Hwan Seo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Y. Kim and J. E. Schemm   P2.2 Red Shift Phenomena Revealed in the Zonal Winds Oscillations Probably Induced by the Sunspot Cycle   G.-H. Lim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and A. -. S. Suh and Y. Suh   P2.3 The Madden-Julian Oscillation Signal in the Arctic Oscillation   Jee-Hoon Jeong, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and C. H. Ho   P2.4 Wave-mean-flow interaction and the annular mode   David J. Lorenz, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann   P2.5 On the relationship between very low frequency North Pacific SSTA and global climate variations   Sang-Wook Yeh, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman   P2.6 A seasonal intercomparison of the dominant modes of climatic variability   Kevin J. Rennert, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace   P2.7 Indian Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations   Galina Chirokova, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster   P2.8 Assessing the influence of decadal climate variability and climate change on snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest   Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. Mote and D. P. Lettenmaier   P2.9 Synoptic disturbances in the east Pacific ITCZ and their effect on the boundary layer   Yolande Serra, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Cronin and M. McPhaden   P2.10 A Theory for Long Term Changes in the General Circulation—Corilis effect in the Solar System   John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling   P2.11 Does the Antarctic Oscillation Modulate Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwestern Pacific   Joo-Hong Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and C. H. Ho   P2.12 Comparing convergence and/or moist-air advection zones from TPW analyses   Arief Sudradjat, University of Maryland and CICS/ESSIC, College Park, MD; and R. Ferraro   P2.13 Satellite Observations of Ocean Moisture Advection and its Effect on South American Low Level Jet and Hydrological Balances   Xiaosu Xie, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu and W. Tang   P2.14 Simple Experiments on the Relationship of Air Temperature to SST in the Tropics   Philip J. Regulski, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann P2.15 Synoptic climatology of PM2.5 and PM10 in Tucson, Arizona   Richard R. Brandt, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and U. Barbosa, D. P. Brown, M. A. Crimmins, H. Yuan, S. Helfrich, T. S. Wilson, and A. C. Comrie   P2.16 Near-surface flow regimes: Recent changes and tools for prognoses   S.C. Pryor, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and J. T. Schoof and R. J. Barthelmie   P2.17 Planetary Boundary Layer Height: Lidar and Radiosonde based Observations   Segayle C. Walford, Howard University, Washington, DC; and B. B. Demoz and E. Joseph   P2.18 A fire scenario builder for coarse-scale modeling of current and future fire effects based on future climate scenarios   Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and D. McKenzie, S. M. O'Neill, S. Ferguson, and D. V. Sandberg   P2.19 The International Polar Year 2007–2008   Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC; and C. Elfring   P2.20 Seasonal heat budget of the California Current   Kathleen A. Edwards, APL and Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. A. Kelly
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 609/610 Joint Session 4 Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with the 15th Symp on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conf on Applied Climatology (Room 609/610)
Chair: Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV
4:00 PM J4.1 Forecasting Rainfall and Floods in Bangladesh on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales: Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (Formerly Poster JP1.12)   Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and A. R. Subbiah, T. M. Hopson, C. Hoyos, R. L. Grossman, H. -. R. Chang, K. Sahami, T. N. Palmer, D. L. T. Anderson, and A. Hossain J4.1A Winter Precipitation Forecasts over the Southern High Plains   Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX 4:15 PM J4.2 Helping resource managers apply seasonal predictions: considerations of equity in providing knowledge development and decision support tools   Holly C. Hartmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and B. Imam, E. Lay, D. Lamb, and S. Sorooshian 4:30 PM J4.3 National Long-range Hydrologic Prediction System   Qingyun Duan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake 4:45 PM J4.4 Use of a weather generator to disaggregate seasonal forecasts: Application to forecasting streamflow   M. P. Clark, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Hay and S. Gangopadhyay 5:00 PM J4.5 Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks   Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and G. G. Garfin, T. Wordell, R. Ochoa, and B. Morehouse 5:15 PM J4.6 The North American (Mexican) Monsoon: MM5 modeling study implications   Dorothea Ivanova, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell
	5:30 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
	6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	7:30 PM, Wednesday AMS Annual Awards Banquet
Thursday, 15 January 2004
	8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Room 6C Joint Session 13 Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University
8:30 AM J13.1 Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño   Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA 8:45 AM J13.2 Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos   Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen 9:00 AM J13.3 The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño   Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison 9:15 AM J13.4 The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade   Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert J13.5 TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño   Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Adler 9:30 AM J13.6 Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP   Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White 9:45 AM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   11:00 AM J13.7 Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations   Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan 11:15 AM J13.8 Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system   Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne 11:30 AM J13.9 The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts   Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 11:45 AM J13.10 Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data   Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM J13.11 Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction   Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 2:00 PM J13.12 Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay J13.13 Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles   Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James 2:15 PM J13.14 ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement   Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky 2:30 PM J13.15 Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh 2:45 PM J13.16 Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory   Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD 3:00 PM Coffee Break   3:30 PM J13.17 Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability   Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole 3:45 PM J13.18 POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction   Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey 4:00 PM J13.19 Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model   Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin 4:15 PM J13.20a A Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models   D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 609/610 Joint Session 5 Climate Change and Urban Areas (Joint with the Symp. on Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone and 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations; Room 609/610)
Chair: Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM J5.1 Detection of urban effects in the climate record   Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC 9:00 AM J5.2 Impact of land-use change and urbanization on climate   Ming Cai, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Li and E. Kalnay 9:15 AM J5.3 The impact of climate change on our cities   Martin Best, Met Office, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and R. Betts 9:30 AM J5.4 Modeling future climate and air quality in the New York City metropolitan area   Kevin L. Civerolo, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY; and J. Biswas, C. Hogrefe, J. Rosenthal, K. Knowlton, B. Lynn, J. Y. Ku, R. Goldberg, C. Rosenzweig, and P. Kinney
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 608 Session 10 Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part II (Room 608)
Chair: Gerald L. Potter, LLNL, Livermore, CA
8:30 AM 10.1 The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Evaluating climate models in a weather forecasting framework   Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and G. L. Potter, D. L. Williamson, R. T. Cederwall, J. S. Boyle, M. Fiorino, J. J. Hnilo, J. G. Olson, S. Xie, and J. J. Yio 8:45 AM 10.2 Stochastic climate simulators for diagnosing regional climate variability and model physics   John W. Bergman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland 9:00 AM 10.3 The Effect of Subtropical/Extratropical Cooling on the Magnitude of El Niño Warming: A Numerical Study   De-Zheng Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. Zhang and S. I. Shin 9:15 AM 10.4 Projecting climate change in mesoscale river basins   Eric P Salathé Jr., JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA 9:30 AM 10.5 Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity   Michael Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert and G. Walker
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday, Hall 4AB Poster Session 3 ENSO and Monsoons (Hall 4AB)
P3.1 Variability of ENSO during the twentieth century: Evidence from three western Pacific islands   Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO   P3.2 The global nonlinear impact of SST changes in the central tropical Pacific   Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo P3.3 Establishment of the low-level wind anomalies over the western North Pacific during ENSO development   Chia Chou, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan   P3.4 Differences between the North Pacific and ENSO Modes   Soon-Il An, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang   P3.5 Changes in the Intraseasonal Variability of Precipitation over the United States Associated with ENSO   David Small, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH; and S. Islam   P3.6 Spatial coherence of Southwest U. S. rainfall on intraseasonal and interannual timescales   Eileen A. Hall-McKim, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis   P3.7 Atmospheric circulation associated to extreme rainfall events in Piura, Peru, in 2002   Ken Takahashi, University of Washington, Seattle, WA   P3.8 TRMM and the global interannual variability of rain over the past five decades   Ziad S. Haddad, JPL and California Institute of Technical, Pasadena, CA; and J. P. Meagher, R. F. Adler, E. Smith, E. Im, and S. L. Durden   P3.9 Low-frequency rainfall variability in northwest Africa and the Sahelian and Sudanian zones   Jon M. Schrage, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink, T. Bruecher, M. Christoph, P. Knippertz, and P. Speth   P3.10 Nonlinear response of the N. Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation to El Niño/La Niña   Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh P3.11 The relationship between the Tibetan Plateau heating and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall   Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and X. Liu   P3.12 Study of East Asian Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability   Jun Jian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA   P3.13 Relation between Winter Monsoon Index and Air Temperature around Korean Peninsula   Yong-Hoon Youn, Meteorological Research Institute, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and I. S. Oh and H. S. Chung
	11:00 AM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 608 Session 11 Observed Seasonal/Interannual Variability (Room 608)
Chair: Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
11:00 AM 11.1 The climate of 2003 in historical perspective   Levinson David, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Lawrimore, R. Heim, A. Waple, S. Stephens, and C. Tankerlsey 11:15 AM 11.2 Mechanisms of land rainfall anomalies associated with tropical Atlantic variability   J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. Su 11:30 AM 11.3 The Scatter in Tropical Average Precipitation Anomalies   Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin 11:45 AM 11.4 Intraseasonal modulation of precipitation over the North American monsoon region   George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and E. Hall-McKim 12:00 PM 11.5 Nonlinear Scale Interactions Via Energy Exchanges Between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation   L. Stefanova, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti 12:15 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM 11.6 On the North Atlantic decadal variability   Lixin Wu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu 1:45 PM 11.7 Mechanisms for intraseasonal variability in the Northern Annular Mode   Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and B. A. McDaniel 2:00 PM 11.8 A Physically-Consistent Long-term Reconstruction of the Northern Annular Mode Using Tree Rings   Justin J. Wettstein, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace 2:15 PM 11.9 Linear atmospheric response to ENSO associated SST meridional differential   Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD 2:30 PM 11.10 A Model Study of Intraseasonal Oscillations over South America South America   Baode Chen, GEST, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. Chao 2:45 PM 11.11 Guinea Gulf SST and Mediterranean Summer Climate: analysis of the interannual variabilty   Marina Baldi, IbiMet - CNR, Rome, Italy; and F. Meneguzzo, G. Dalu, G. Maracchi, M. Pasqui, V. Capecchi, A. Crisci, and F. Piani
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	3:00 PM, Thursday Registration Desk Closes
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Room 609/610 Joint Session 6 Observed Climate Variability (JOINT with THE 15TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND THE 14TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (Room 609/610) (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Chair: Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY
3:30 PM J6.1 Verifying the Reanalysis and climate models outputs using a 56-Year data set of reconstructed global precipitation   Mingyue Chen, RS Information Systems, Inc., Camp Springs, MD; and P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and T. M. Smith 3:45 PM J6.2 Low Latitude Zonally Symmetric Circulations in the NCEP Reanalyses   Ioana M. Dima, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace 4:00 PM J6.3 The NAM and PNA-like Patterns: Basis Functions for Northern Hemisphere Low Frequency Variability   Roberta Quadrelli, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace J6.4 The Storms of 2003 in the Midwest   Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and S. D. Hilberg, J. R. Angel, and S. A. Changnon 4:15 PM J6.5 Recent climate variability in Antarctica from satellite-derived temperature data   David P. Schneider, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. J. Steig and J. Comiso 4:30 PM J6.6 Monitoring climate change from geostationary satellites   Herbert Jacobowitz, Short & Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, MD; and G. J. Dittberner and J. J. Gurka 4:45 PM J6.7 Temporal variations in model derived evaporation in the northeastern and midwestern U.S.   Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. L. Eggleston 5:00 PM J6.8 Geostatistical Analysis of local versus Regional Feedback on Regional Climate: Synthesis of Insitu Observations and Global Analysis over Senegal, Western Africa   Souleymane Fall, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Niyogi, F. Semazzi, R. Anyah, and J. Bowden
	5:30 PM, Thursday Conference Ends
	6:00 PM, Thursday Norm Phillips Banquet

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