19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 11 August 2002
5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday
CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
 
Monday, 12 August 2002
7:30 AM, Monday
Session REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, 16 AUGUST (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction)
 
8:15 AM, Monday
Opening Remarks
Organizer: Edward L Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
 
8:30 AM-9:15 AM, Monday
Joint Session 1 Joint Keynote Address (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
8:30 AMJ1.1Forecasting severe local storms...past, present, and future  
Robert H. Johns, Retired severe local storms forecaster, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss
 
9:15 AM-10:00 AM, Monday
Joint Session 2 Joint Keynote Address II (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
9:15 AMJ2.1Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative research/operational environment  extended abstract
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and A. Just
 
10:00 AM, Monday
COFFEE BREAK
 
10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Monday
Session 1 Case Studies I
Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
10:30 AM1.1An analysis of the record-breaking 9–10 November 1996 rainfall in the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys  extended abstract
J. R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Durnford
10:45 AM1.2Common characteristics of heavy banded snowfall events in the central United States  
James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves
11:00 AM1.3Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases  
Daniel St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, South Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson
11:15 AM1.4An examination of the variability of snowfall associated with terrain-induced circulations in central New Mexico using the workstation ETA and MM5 models  extended abstract
Deirdre Kann, NOAA/NWS, Albuquerque, NM; and E. Ritchie
11:30 AM1.5An Analysis of MM5 Performance for Four Major Snowstorms over the Korean Peninsula  extended abstract
Peter B. Roohr, CIRES/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. Brooks
11:44 AM1.6Paper Moved to session 10, new paper number 10.2a  
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday
LUNCH BREAK
 
1:00 PM, Monday
Weather Briefing
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday
Session 2 Case Studies II
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
1:30 PM2.1Sensitivity of Model Thunderstorms to Modifications to the Environmental Conditions by a nearby Thunderstorm in the Prediction of 2000 Fort Worth Tornado Case  extended abstract
Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
1:45 PM2.2Impact of adjustments in the Kain-Fritsch Convective Scheme on QPF of Elevated Convection  extended abstract
Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, R. W. Arritt, and J. S. Kain
2:00 PM2.3Life cycle differences between consecutive rapidly deepening continental cyclones  extended abstract
Steven G. Decker, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin
2:15 PM2.4Local mesoscale models for nowcasting Space Shuttle landing weather  extended abstract
Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and T. D. Oram and R. Lafosse
2:30 PM2.5A potential vorticity view of Southern Hemisphere blocking  extended abstract
Stewart C. R. Allen, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and D. J. Karoly
2:45 PM2.6Mesoscale Forecasting of the EM Propagation Environment and Dust Storms in the Persian Gulf  
Tracy Haack, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Liu, D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, and S. D. Burk
 
3:00 PM, Monday
Coffee Break with the Poster Session
 
3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Monday
Poster Session 1 Weather Analysis, Forecasting and Numerical Prediction
 P1.1Mesoscale Predictability Estimated through Explicit Simulation of Moist Baroclinic Waves  extended abstract
Zhe-Min Tan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and F. Zhang
 P1.2Moist NWP equations and missing terms  extended abstract
Terry Davies, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and M. Diamantakis and A. J. Malcolm
 P1.3An Exact Anelastic Beltrami–Flow Solution for use on model validation  
Robert Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. P. Richardson
 P1.4The impact of assimilating AVHRR–derived humidity on high latitude MM5 forecasts  extended abstract
Xingang Fan, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley
 P1.5Performance of the global shallow water model with double Fourier series on the interaction and movement of typhoon-scale vortices  
Hyeong Bin Cheong, Pukyong National University, Pusan, Korea; and I. H. Kwon, M. J. Lee, and M. K. Kang
 P1.6Progresses and future plans for OSSE/NPOESS  extended abstract
Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, T. J. Kleespies, J. Terry, H. Sun, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, R. Atlas, M. D. Goldberg, J. G. Yoe, W. E. Baker, C. S. Velden, W. Wolf, S. C. Bloom, G. Brin, and C. O'Handley
 P1.7Harman and Harmpred: Web-Based Program to analyze Tidal Constituents and Tidal Forcasts for the Texas Coast  extended abstract
Aimee L. Mostella, Texas A&M University and Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and S. Duff and P. R. Michaud
 P1.8Planetary and Synoptic Scale Interactions in Southeast Pacific Blocking Using Potential Vorticity Diagnostics  extended abstract
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland
 P1.9Mesoscale ensemble prediction of winter precipitation in a severe winter storm  extended abstract
Brian F. Jewett, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, R. M. Rauber, J. Grim, L. Barker, and D. Smith
 P1.10Improved terrain analysis for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPStm) and its impact to the forecast performance  extended abstract
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Schmidt and J. E. Nachamkin
 P1.11Climatology of warm season 500 hPa cutoff cyclones and a case study diagnosis of 14—17 July 2000  
Matthew J. Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. A. Wasula, and K. D. LaPenta
 P1.12An Improved Soil-Vegetation Physics for COAMPSTM  extended abstract
Kang Nai, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Wei, Q. Xu, K. D. Sashegyi, and T. R. Holt
 P1.13A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach to Geopotential Prediction Using Equivalent Barotropic Model  
Alireza D. Shaneh, University of Tehran, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Bidokhti, C. Lucas, and M. Teshnehlab
 P1.14A global 500 hPa cutoff cyclone climatology: 1953–1999  extended abstract
Brandon A. Smith, SUNY, Albany, New York; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. St. Jean
 P1.15A Forecast Overview of the 26 January 1996 Blizzard Across Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois Using Non-Standard Forecast Techniques  
Todd E. Holsten, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and T. P. Hendricks
 P1.16Paper Move to Joint Poster Session JP2, New Paper number JP2.9  
 
4:30 PM-5:45 PM, Monday
Session 3 Statistical Evaluation I
Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
4:30 PM3.1Operational models and performance evaluation at Fleet Numerical  extended abstract
Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman, J. Lerner, and M. Swenson
4:45 PM3.2Determining the resolved spatial scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts  extended abstract
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin
5:00 PM3.3Objective verification of the MM5 over the Eastern U.S.: comparison with the NCEP Eta and impact of high resolution  extended abstract
Biran A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson
5:14 PM3.4Paper Moved to Session 5, New paper number 5.6a  
5:15 PM3.5Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model  extended abstract
Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and D. M. Schultz
5:30 PM3.6Updateable model output statistics: an effective tool for evaluation of NWP forecasts  extended abstract
Marcel Vallée, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson
 
5:45 PM, Monday
sessions end for the day
 
8:00 PM-9:00 PM, Monday
Weather Event Simulator Workshop
 
Tuesday, 13 August 2002
8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Tuesday
Joint Session 3 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: Robert H. Johns, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK
8:00 AMJ3.1A Structured Process for Prediction of Convection Associated with Split Cold Fronts  extended abstract
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
8:15 AMJ3.2Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center  extended abstract
Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and J. A. Hart
8:30 AMJ3.3Operational ensemble cloud model forecasts: Some preliminary results  extended abstract
Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, P. C. Banacos, and S. K. Jones
8:45 AMJ3.4Automated Gridded Forecast Guidance for Thunderstorms and Severe Local Storms Based on the Eta Model  extended abstract
Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
 
9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday
Joint Session 4 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
9:00 AMJ4.1Forecast guidance from NCEP's high resolution nonhydrostatic mesoscale model  
Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers, Z. Janjic, H. Chuang, and G. DiMego
9:15 AMJ4.2Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations  extended abstract
John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, G. W. Carbin, M. P. Kay, and L. Brown
9:30 AMJ4.3Analysis of Mesoscale Vertical Circulations using WSR-88D VAD and Wind Profiler Data  extended abstract
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
9:45 AMJ4.4Summer storm initiation and evolution in central Arizona  extended abstract
Pamela L. MacKeen, CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Schultz
 
10:00 AM, Tuesday
Coffee Break
 
10:30 AM-11:15 AM, Tuesday
Joint Session 5 The Use of Mesoscale models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
10:30 AMJ5.1A Preliminary Examination of the Performance of Several Mesoscale Models for Convective Forecasting During IHOP  
Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. Shaw, M. P. Kay, J. M. Brown, P. Janish, and R. Schneider
10:45 AMJ5.2Parameterization of convection at mesoscale resolution  extended abstract
James M. Done, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and P. A. Clark, G. C. Craig, M. E. B. Gray, and S. L. Gray
11:00 AMJ5.3Impact of GPS water vapor data on RUC severe weather forecasts  extended abstract
Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO and NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and B. Schwartz
 
11:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday
Joint Session 6 The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
11:15 AMJ6.1Mesoscale modeling at WFO Jacksonville: Five years of trying to get Florida severe weather right  
Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL
11:30 AMJ6.2Evaluation of a rapidly relocatable high-resolution numerical model for meteorological nowcasting based on MM5  extended abstract
Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, A. M. Gibbs, A. J. Schroeder, and G. K. Hunter
11:45 AMJ6.3Recent Advances in Diabatic Initialization of a Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model  extended abstract
Keith A. Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday
LUNCH BREAK
 
1:00 PM, Tuesday
Weather Briefing
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday
Session 4A Phenomenological Forecasting I
Organizer: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM4A.1An Analysis of the Incorporation of Lightning into the Nowcasting of Enhanced Frozen Precipitation  extended abstract
Peter B. Roohr, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar
1:45 PM4A.2Integrated Icing Forecast Algorithm Assessment  extended abstract
Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and K. Price and D. Sims
2:00 PM4A.3Short-Term Probabilistic forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility utilizing high-Frequency surface observations  extended abstract
Stephen M. Leyton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch
2:15 PM4A.4Comparing Weather Hazards Using the BFM and MM5  
Jeffrey E. Passner, Army Reseach Labatory, White Sands Missile Range, NM
2:30 PM4A.5TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada and Results  extended abstract
Jacques Montpetit, Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. Wilson, and R. Verret
2:45 PM4A.6Signatures of Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain, their Accurate Locations From AMSU-B Data onboard NOAA Satellite  
Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Pune, Pune, Maharshtra, India; and P. N. Sen, D. M. Puranik, and R. N. Karekar
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday
Session 4B Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Modeling
Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
1:30 PM4B.1 Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: 4DVar results  extended abstract
N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell and J. Sun
1:45 PM4B.2Estimating environmental soundings for use in convective-scale NWP  
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock
2:00 PM4B.3Real-time Storm-scale Forecast Support for IHOP 2002 at CAPS  
Ming Xue, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Brewster, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and E. Kemp
2:15 PM4B.4Sensitivity study on nudging parameters for a mesoscale FDDA system  extended abstract
Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, C. A. Davis, and T. T. Warner
2:30 PM4B.5Event-based verification of operational mesoscale NWP  
Graham A. Mills, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
2:45 PM4B.6A Framework for Globalization of Regional Atmospheric Models: Dry Core and Quasi-Uniform (QU) Grids  
Miodrag Rancic, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Zhang
 
3:00 PM, Tuesday
COFFEE BREAK WITH THE POSTER SESSION
 
3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday
Joint Poster Session 1 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19 WAF/15 NWP)
 JP1.1Weather Event Simulator Best Practices  extended abstract
John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. M. Quoetone, E. Page, and M. A. Magsig
 JP1.2Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques  extended abstract
Roger Edwards, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and J. A. Hart
 JP1.3Anticipating and monitoring supercell motion for severe weather operations  extended abstract
Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. J. Bunkers
 JP1.4Paper has been moved to SLS session 16, new paper number 16.7A  
 JP1.5Synoptic and mesoscale patterns associated with violent tornadoes across separate geographic regions of the United States: part II—upper-level characteristics  extended abstract
Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and N. Dipasquale and R. Wynne
 JP1.6Lightning nowcasts using WSR-88D derived products and AWIPS  extended abstract
Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and R. Lafosse and T. D. Oram
 JP1.7Enhancements to a new convective sounding analysis program for AWIPS  extended abstract
Xuechao Yu, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; and M. A. Magsig and M. Bunkers
 JP1.8Forecasting extreme rainfall leading to flash flood events in the UK  extended abstract
Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. G. Collier and W. Hand
 JP1.9An Assessment of 3-and 6-h RUC CAPE forecasts  
Barry Schwartz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin
 JP1.10Probabilistic forecasts of severe local storms in the 0–3 hour timeframe from an advective-statistical technique  extended abstract
David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, C. Mello, and J. Dai
 JP1.11Visually enhanced composite charts for severe weather forecasting and real-time diagnosis  
Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Coraopolis, PA
 
3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday
Joint Poster Session 2 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP) new
 JP2.1Observed and Modeled Structure of the Subtropical Sea Breeze  
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
 JP2.2NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast of the 6—7 January 2002 Northeast Snowstorm: Role of initial conditions  extended abstract
William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt
 JP2.3Late November 2001 Winter Precipitation Event Over South Central Texas  extended abstract
Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX
 JP2.4Verification of MM5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes for East Asia  
Dean James Carter, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther
 JP2.5ENSO-based forecasting of seasonal tropical cyclone trends from historical analyses of genesis and OLR oscillations  extended abstract
Colin K. Kennedy, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith
 JP2.6Analysis of mesoscale banded features in the 5–6 February 2001 New England snowstorm  extended abstract
David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. S. W. Horwood
 JP2.7The use of a phase shifted verification score to evaluate warm season QPF  
Steven L. Aves, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, E. Kalnay, and M. Miller
 JP2.8COAMPSTM Forecasting of Land–falling Fronts  
Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
 JP2.9Forecaster training on NWP through case examples (Formerly paper p1.16)  extended abstract
Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET at NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Bua
 
3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday
Joint Poster Session 3 The use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
 JP3.1An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center  extended abstract
Phillip D. Bothwell, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Hart and R. L. Thompson
 JP3.2Evaluation of Eta Model Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems  extended abstract
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin
 JP3.3The Use of the GEM Forecast Model at very high resolution during ELBOW 2001  extended abstract
Patrick King, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Murphy, A. Erfani, and D. Sills
 
3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday
Joint Poster Session 4 The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
 JP4.1Numerical forecast simulations of precipitation events in complex terrain  
J. Wang, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. Capehart, and R. D. Farley
 JP4.2Mesoscale Modeling of Significant Severe Weather and Flash Flood Events at WFO Jackson, MS  extended abstract
Alan Gerard, NOAA/NWS, Jackson, MS; and S. Listemaa
 JP4.3Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on the Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rainfall in Korea  extended abstract
Hee-Dong Yoo, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, K. Brewster, S. Y. Lee, and C. H. Cho
 JP4.4Using 4d-VAR to move a simulated hurricane in a mesoscale model  extended abstract
Ross N. Hoffman, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. M. Henderson and S. M. Leidner
 JP4.5Comparison of Meso Eta Wind Forecasts with TCOON Measurements along the Coast of Texas  extended abstract
Jeremy Alan Stearns, Texas A&M University, Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot, A. R. Patrick, P. Michaud, and W. G. Collins
 JP4.6A Variational Method for Dual-Doppler Radar Retrievals of Wind and Thermodynamic Fields  extended abstract
Shun Liu, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Qiu and Q. Xu
 JP4.7A statistical evaluation of forecasting errors in numerical models for weather prediction of severe rainfalls events in Venezuelan coasts  
Jaime E. Guerra, Universidad Nacional Experimental Maritima del Caribe, Estado Vargas, Venezuela; and I. Garcia, J. Jorge, and G. Jaimes
 JP4.8CEDRIC as a software tool for analyzing WRF model output  
L. Jay Miller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Fredrick and C. A. Davis
 
4:30 PM-6:00 PM, Tuesday
Session 5 Mesoscale Processes and Convection
Organizer: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
4:30 PM5.1The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model  extended abstract
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay
4:45 PM5.2Quantitative Precipitation in Simulated Deep Convection: Sensitivity to the Hail/Graupel Category  extended abstract
Matthew S. Gilmore, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Straka and E. N. Rasmussen
5:00 PM5.3Quality control problems for VAD Winds and NEXRAD Level-II winds in the presence of migrating birds  
Li Bi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, P. Zhang, and Q. Xu
5:15 PM5.4Forecast uses of terminal doppler weather radar (TDWR) data  extended abstract
Steven M. Zubrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Sterling, VA
5:30 PM5.5Large–scale Environment and diurnal cycle of u.s. warm season precipitation episodes  extended abstract
D. A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Carbone, C. A. Davis, and J. D. Tuttle
5:44 PM5.6paper moved to session 12, New paper number 12.6  
5:45 PM5.6aStatistical-Dynamical Forecasts of Warm Season Rainfall Over North America (Formerly Paper 3.4)  extended abstract
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, R. E. Carbone, K. W. Manning, and J. Tuttle
 
6:00 PM, Tuesday
Sessions End for the day
 
8:00 PM-10:00 PM, Tuesday
Evening Video/Slide Presentation
 
Wednesday, 14 August 2002
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday
Session 6 Winter Weather and Climatological Studies
Organizer: John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC Canada
8:00 AM6.1Establishing a 10 year climatology of 101.6 mm (4 inch) rainfall days, part I  
Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart
8:15 AM6.2Can possible heavy rainfall events be identified by comparing various parameters to the climatological norms?  extended abstract
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and N. W. Junker, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart
8:30 AM6.3A Northeast Snowstorm Impact Scale  
Paul J. Kocin, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and L. W. Uccellini
8:45 AM6.4A study of heavy precipitation occurring in continental and marine environments  
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, P. A. Sisson, G. Toth, P. Lewis, and J. K. Parker
9:00 AM6.5A climatological and composite study of cold season banded precipitation in the northeast United States  extended abstract
David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. S. Waldstreicher
9:15 AM6.6Large-scale circulation anomaly indices in relation to cool-season precipitation events in the northeastern United States  extended abstract
David Groenert, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. H. Grumm
9:30 AM6.7Northern Hemisphere warming: A thickness climatology  extended abstract
Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and L. F. Bosart
9:45 AM6.8The effects of diabatic redistribution of potential vorticity on cold frontal rainbands and cold front propagation  extended abstract
Heather Dawn Reeves, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
 
10:00 AM, Wednesday
COFFEE BREAK
 
10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday
Session 7A Tropical Cyclones
Organizer: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM7A.12001 COAMPSTM tropical cyclone verification in the Northwest Pacific Ocean  extended abstract
Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and B. J. Strahl
10:45 AM7A.2An examination of the mesoscale structure associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Agnes (1972)  extended abstract
Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
11:00 AM7A.3Quantitative measurements of extratropical transition in the Atlantic Basin  extended abstract
Joshua K. Darr, SUNY, Albany, NY
11:14 AM7A.4Paper moved to session 10, New paper number 10.4a  
11:15 AM7A.5Nonclassical tropopause folding  extended abstract
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. J. Dickinson and E. H. Atallah
11:30 AM7A.6Importance of Tropical easterly waves to the development of surges over the Gulf of California  extended abstract
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday
Session 7B Statistical Evaluation II
Organizer: Jason E. Nachamkin, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM7B.1Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPStm)  extended abstract
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin, J. M. Schmidt, and C. S. Liou
10:45 AM7B.2Forecast Verification Using Meteorological Event Composites  extended abstract
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA
11:00 AM7B.3Development of an “events-oriented” approach to forecast verification  extended abstract
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain
11:15 AM7B.4A statistical expression for the estimation of MCS precipitation efficiency  extended abstract
Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. N. Allen, R. Scofield, A. Gruber, and R. Kuligowski
11:30 AM7B.5A Benchmark Simulation for Testing Moist Nonhydrostatic Numerical Model Formulations  extended abstract
George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch
11:45 AM7B.6Regional Verification of Polar MM5 over Alaska  extended abstract
William Courtemanche, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and M. K. Walters
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
LUNCH BREAK
 
1:00 PM-1:20 PM, Wednesday
Weather Briefing
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday
Session 8 Phenomenological Forecasting II
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
1:30 PM8.1Numerical Forecasts of freezing rain: Physical processes and Model biases  extended abstract
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. B. Ek and K. Keeter
1:45 PM8.2Verification of real-time non-hydrostatic Eta model forecasts over Southern New England  extended abstract
Marina Tsidulko, UCAR Visiting Scientist and NOAA/National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD; and J. G. W. Kelley
2:00 PM8.3Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm Assessment  extended abstract
Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and C. Fidalgo and D. Sims
2:15 PM8.4An Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Eta Surface Temperature Forecasts through the Gridded Forecast Editor  extended abstract
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK
2:30 PM8.5Contrasts between good and bad forecasts of warm season MCSs in 10 km Eta simulations using two convective schemes  
Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus
2:45 PM8.6Characteristics of the Nocturnal Land Breeze over the Kennedy Space Center, Florida  extended abstract
Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Flight Center and ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco and D. A. Short
 
3:00 PM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
3:00 PM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
3:30 PM-6:00 PM, Wednesday
Session 9 WRF Model Development
Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM9.1A semi-Lagrangian non-hydrostatic model employing a hybrid vertical coordinate  extended abstract
R. James Purser, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. K. Kar, S. Gopalakrishnan, and T. Fujita
3:45 PM9.2Testing and Verification of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model  extended abstract
Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and W. Wang
4:00 PM9.3WRF model evaluation at the SPC and NSSL  extended abstract
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and S. J. Weiss
4:15 PM9.4Verification of IHOP model runs of MM5 and WRF with diabatic initialization  extended abstract
Paul Schultz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
4:30 PM9.5The effects of subgrid model mixing and numerical filtering in simulations of mesoscale convective systems  extended abstract
Tetsuya Takemi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno
4:45 PM9.6Preliminary results from 4 km explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model  
Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and J. B. Klemp
5:00 PM9.7A Nonhydrostatic Vertical-Slice Model in a Hybrid Sigma-Theta Coordinate  extended abstract
Sajal K. Kar, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser
5:15 PM9.8Screen-height Observations Assimilated in an Evolving 1-D PBL with an Ensemble Kalman Filter  extended abstract
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder
5:30 PM9.9A case study comparison of 10-km RUCWRF and RUC model forecasts from the IHOP experiment  extended abstract
Stanley Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. L. Lee, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, and B. L. Shaw
5:45 PM9.10Preliminary comparisons of tropical cyclone simulations with the GFDL and WRF Models  extended abstract
David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and R. E. Tuleya
 
6:00 PM, Wednesday
Fiesta
 
6:00 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day
 
Thursday, 15 August 2002
8:00 AM-9:58 AM, Thursday
Session 10 Data Assimilation I
Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM10.1Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model  
Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Jin, Y. Lin, T. Black, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego
10.2Experiments of high-density data in the NCEP Eta Data Assimilation System: NEXRAD radial velocity and satellite radiance data  
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Parrish, M. Pondeca, Y. Lin, and G. DiMego
8:14 AM10.2aImpact of Polar Cloud Track Winds from MODIS on ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts (formerly Paper number 1.6)  extended abstract
Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and J. N. Thépaut, J. Key, D. Santek, and C. S. Velden
8:29 AM10.3Background Error Covariance Functions for Radar Wind Analysis  extended abstract
Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Gong
10.4Ensemble data assimilation as an SDVR technique  
William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue
8:43 AM10.4aThe Role of Subsynoptic Processes in Synoptic-scale Extratropical Cyclone Development (Formerly Paper 7a.4)  
Kenneth E. Parsons, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and P. J. Smith
8:58 AM10.5Rapid-scan single-Doppler velocity retrieval of a thunderstorm outflow  
Alan Shapiro, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Robinson and J. Wurman
9:13 AM10.6Characterising the Spatial Structure of Observation Errors in Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Data Assimilation  extended abstract
Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Saarinen, J. N. Thépaut, and G. Kelly
9:28 AM10.7Impacts of Initial Analyses and Observations on the Convective-Scale Data Assimilation with an Ensemble-Kalman Filter  extended abstract
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and J. Sun
9:43 AM10.8High-resolution RUC forecasts for PACJET: Real-time NWS guidance and retrospective data impact tests  extended abstract
Steve Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, C. S. Velden, J. E. Burks, and L. B. Nance
 
10:00 AM, Thursday
COFFEE BREAK
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday
Session 11 Ensembles
Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
10:30 AM11.1An Examination of Regional Ensemble Forecasting Techniques during three Winter Storms  extended abstract
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart
10:45 AM11.2Flow Dependent Background Error Covariance and Mesoscale Predictability Estimation through Ensemble Forecasting  extended abstract
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. Ham and A. Aksoy
11:00 AM11.3Effects of nesting frequency and lateral boundary perturbations on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts  extended abstract
Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Stensrud and M. Xue
11:15 AM11.4Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Tropical and Mid-latitude Cyclones  extended abstract
Mohan K. Ramamurthy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett, B. Cui, and H. Liu
11:30 AM11.5Results of using the PSU shallow convection scheme in an ensemble mode: Effects on mass flux profiles and thermodynamic tendencies  extended abstract
Ricardo C. Muñoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng
11:45 AM11.6Using adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities to characterize forecast uncertainty  extended abstract
Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist and G. A. Postel
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday
LUNCH BREAK
 
1:00 PM-1:20 PM, Thursday
Weather Briefing
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday
Session 12 Data Assimilation II
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
1:30 PM12.1A comparison between the 4D-Var and the ensemble filter techniques for radar data assimilation  extended abstract
A. H. Caya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun and C. Snyder
1:45 PM12.2Anisotropic background error correlations in a 3D-var system  extended abstract
M. S. F. V. De Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. F. Parrish, R. J. Purser, W. S. Wu, J. C. Derber, and G. DiMego
2:00 PM12.3Cloud/hydrometeor initialization in the 20-km RUC Using radar and GOES data  extended abstract
Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and J. M. Brown
2:15 PM12.4New Development of a 3dvar system for a Nonhydrostatic NWP Model  extended abstract
Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier
2:30 PM12.5A new version of RUC 3DVAR  extended abstract
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt
2:45 PM12.6Impact Assesment of a Doppler Wind Lidar for OSSE/NPOESS (Formerly Paper 5.6)  extended abstract
Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, J. Terry, R. Atlas, T. J. Kleespies, and H. Sun
 
3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Thursday
Session 13 High Resolution Prediction
3:30 PM13.1The Met Office's new global and mesoscale NWP models  extended abstract
Glenn T. Greed, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Milton, I. Culverwell, D. Cameron, and D. Li
3:45 PM13.2High winds and high resolution at the Met Office  extended abstract
Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom
4:00 PM13.3Development of a nonhydrostatic model for very short-range forecasting at JMA  extended abstract
Tsukasa Fujita, Japan Meteorological Agency, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Saito, Y. Yamada, J. I. Ishida, M. Narita, S. Goto, C. Muroi, T. Kato, and H. Eito
4:15 PM13.4A High Resolution Numerical Simulation of the Landfall of Hurricane Opal (1995)  extended abstract
Glen Romine, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Wilhelmson
4:30 PM13.5Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Allison (2001)  extended abstract
Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
4:45 PM13.6Uncertainty in numerical mesoscale modeling by the use of a topography defined via map projections  extended abstract
Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico
5:00 PM13.7Use of the NCEP MesoEta Data in a Water Level Predicting Neural Network  extended abstract
Andrew R. Patrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Corpus Christi, TX; and W. G. Collins, P. E. Tissot, A. Drikitis, J. Stearns, P. R. Michaud, and D. T. Cox
5:15 PM13.8An exploration of several techniques to try to improve warm season rainfall forecasts in the Upper Midwest  
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and B. R. Temeyer
5:30 PM13.9Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: Ensemble Kalman filter results  extended abstract
David Dowell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, L. Wicker, C. Snyder, B. Skamarock, and A. Crook
 
5:45 PM, Thursday
Sessions end for the day
 
8:00 PM-10:00 PM, Thursday
Evening Video/Slide Presentation
 
Friday, 16 August 2002
8:00 AM-9:44 AM, Friday
Session 14 Model Improvements
8:00 AM14.1The 20-km RUC in operations  extended abstract
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, B. E. Schwartz, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, D. Kim, G. A. Grell, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin
8:15 AM14.2Wind and Temperature Retrieval From TOMS Data for Weather Analysis and Prediction  
Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and X. Zou
8:30 AM14.3A Decade + of the Eta Performance, including that beyond Two Days: Any Lessons for the Road Ahead?  
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, K. Brill, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers
8:45 AM14.4Adaptation of the Canadian Updateable Model Output System to forecasting marine winds on the great lakes Great Lakes  extended abstract
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson and M. Vallee
9:00 AM14.5Parameter Retrieval in a Land-surface Model  extended abstract
Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and J. Gao
9:15 AM14.6PERFORMANCE AND ENHANCEMENTS OF THE NCAR/ATEC MESOSCALE FDDA AND FORECASTING SYSTEM  extended abstract
Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and S. Low-Nam, R. S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. Davis, T. Warner, J. Bowers, M. Xu, H. M. Hsu, and D. Rife
14.7Evaluation of Eta Model Seasonal Forecasts over South America  
Sin Chan Chou, Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and J. L. Gomes and J. F. Bustamante
9:29 AM14.8Domain of validity of some computational mesoscale models  extended abstract
Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico
 
10:00 AM, Friday
COFFEE BREAK
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday
Session 15 Techniques to Maximize the Value of Model Output
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
10:30 AM15.1Local PoP forecast Equations for Philadelphia, PA  extended abstract
Mark P. DeLisi, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and A. M. Cope
10:45 AM15.2Combining objective and subjective information to improve forecast evaluation  extended abstract
Michael P. Kay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin
11:00 AM15.3Eta-based MOS probability of preciptation amount guidance for the continental United States  
Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
11:15 AM15.4GFE-Based Temperature Verification-One Approach  extended abstract
Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID
11:30 AM15.5How Traditional NWS Verification Encourages "Hedging", and a Possible Remedy  extended abstract
Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID
11:45 AM15.6Forecasting Applications of Synoptic Observation for Some Selected Parameters at Addis Ababa. Part I : Frequency of Weather Events against Wind, Dew-point Temperature and Pressure  
Yitaktu Tesfatsion, National Meteorological Services Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
 
12:00 PM, Friday
Conference Ends
 

Browse the complete program of The 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction