* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 11 August 2002
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
Monday, 12 August 2002
	7:30 AM, Monday Session REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, 16 AUGUST (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction)
	8:15 AM, Monday Opening Remarks
Organizer: Edward L Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
	8:30 AM-9:15 AM, Monday Joint Session 1 Joint Keynote Address (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
8:30 AM J1.1 Forecasting severe local storms...past, present, and future   Robert H. Johns, Retired severe local storms forecaster, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss
	9:15 AM-10:00 AM, Monday Joint Session 2 Joint Keynote Address II (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
9:15 AM J2.1 Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative research/operational environment   John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and A. Just
	10:00 AM, Monday COFFEE BREAK
	10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Monday Session 1 Case Studies I
Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
10:30 AM 1.1 An analysis of the record-breaking 9–10 November 1996 rainfall in the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys   J. R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Durnford 10:45 AM 1.2 Common characteristics of heavy banded snowfall events in the central United States   James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves 11:00 AM 1.3 Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases   Daniel St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, South Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson 11:15 AM 1.4 An examination of the variability of snowfall associated with terrain-induced circulations in central New Mexico using the workstation ETA and MM5 models   Deirdre Kann, NOAA/NWS, Albuquerque, NM; and E. Ritchie 11:30 AM 1.5 An Analysis of MM5 Performance for Four Major Snowstorms over the Korean Peninsula   Peter B. Roohr, CIRES/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. Brooks 11:44 AM 1.6 Paper Moved to session 10, new paper number 10.2a
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday LUNCH BREAK
	1:00 PM, Monday Weather Briefing
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday Session 2 Case Studies II
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
1:30 PM 2.1 Sensitivity of Model Thunderstorms to Modifications to the Environmental Conditions by a nearby Thunderstorm in the Prediction of 2000 Fort Worth Tornado Case   Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 1:45 PM 2.2 Impact of adjustments in the Kain-Fritsch Convective Scheme on QPF of Elevated Convection   Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, R. W. Arritt, and J. S. Kain 2:00 PM 2.3 Life cycle differences between consecutive rapidly deepening continental cyclones   Steven G. Decker, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin 2:15 PM 2.4 Local mesoscale models for nowcasting Space Shuttle landing weather   Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and T. D. Oram and R. Lafosse 2:30 PM 2.5 A potential vorticity view of Southern Hemisphere blocking   Stewart C. R. Allen, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and D. J. Karoly 2:45 PM 2.6 Mesoscale Forecasting of the EM Propagation Environment and Dust Storms in the Persian Gulf   Tracy Haack, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Liu, D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, and S. D. Burk
	3:00 PM, Monday Coffee Break with the Poster Session
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Monday Poster Session 1 Weather Analysis, Forecasting and Numerical Prediction
P1.1 Mesoscale Predictability Estimated through Explicit Simulation of Moist Baroclinic Waves   Zhe-Min Tan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and F. Zhang   P1.2 Moist NWP equations and missing terms   Terry Davies, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and M. Diamantakis and A. J. Malcolm   P1.3 An Exact Anelastic Beltrami–Flow Solution for use on model validation   Robert Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. P. Richardson   P1.4 The impact of assimilating AVHRR–derived humidity on high latitude MM5 forecasts   Xingang Fan, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley   P1.5 Performance of the global shallow water model with double Fourier series on the interaction and movement of typhoon-scale vortices   Hyeong Bin Cheong, Pukyong National University, Pusan, Korea; and I. H. Kwon, M. J. Lee, and M. K. Kang   P1.6 Progresses and future plans for OSSE/NPOESS   Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, T. J. Kleespies, J. Terry, H. Sun, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, R. Atlas, M. D. Goldberg, J. G. Yoe, W. E. Baker, C. S. Velden, W. Wolf, S. C. Bloom, G. Brin, and C. O'Handley   P1.7 Harman and Harmpred: Web-Based Program to analyze Tidal Constituents and Tidal Forcasts for the Texas Coast   Aimee L. Mostella, Texas A&M University and Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and S. Duff and P. R. Michaud   P1.8 Planetary and Synoptic Scale Interactions in Southeast Pacific Blocking Using Potential Vorticity Diagnostics   Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland   P1.9 Mesoscale ensemble prediction of winter precipitation in a severe winter storm   Brian F. Jewett, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, R. M. Rauber, J. Grim, L. Barker, and D. Smith   P1.10 Improved terrain analysis for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPStm) and its impact to the forecast performance   Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Schmidt and J. E. Nachamkin   P1.11 Climatology of warm season 500 hPa cutoff cyclones and a case study diagnosis of 14—17 July 2000   Matthew J. Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. A. Wasula, and K. D. LaPenta   P1.12 An Improved Soil-Vegetation Physics for COAMPSTM   Kang Nai, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Wei, Q. Xu, K. D. Sashegyi, and T. R. Holt   P1.13 A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach to Geopotential Prediction Using Equivalent Barotropic Model   Alireza D. Shaneh, University of Tehran, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Bidokhti, C. Lucas, and M. Teshnehlab   P1.14 A global 500 hPa cutoff cyclone climatology: 1953–1999   Brandon A. Smith, SUNY, Albany, New York; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. St. Jean   P1.15 A Forecast Overview of the 26 January 1996 Blizzard Across Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois Using Non-Standard Forecast Techniques   Todd E. Holsten, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and T. P. Hendricks   P1.16 Paper Move to Joint Poster Session JP2, New Paper number JP2.9
	4:30 PM-5:45 PM, Monday Session 3 Statistical Evaluation I
Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
4:30 PM 3.1 Operational models and performance evaluation at Fleet Numerical   Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman, J. Lerner, and M. Swenson 4:45 PM 3.2 Determining the resolved spatial scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts   Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin 5:00 PM 3.3 Objective verification of the MM5 over the Eastern U.S.: comparison with the NCEP Eta and impact of high resolution   Biran A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson 5:14 PM 3.4 Paper Moved to Session 5, New paper number 5.6a   5:15 PM 3.5 Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model   Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and D. M. Schultz 5:30 PM 3.6 Updateable model output statistics: an effective tool for evaluation of NWP forecasts   Marcel Vallée, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson
	5:45 PM, Monday sessions end for the day
	8:00 PM-9:00 PM, Monday Weather Event Simulator Workshop
Tuesday, 13 August 2002
	8:00 AM-9:00 AM, Tuesday Joint Session 3 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: Robert H. Johns, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK
8:00 AM J3.1 A Structured Process for Prediction of Convection Associated with Split Cold Fronts   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO 8:15 AM J3.2 Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center   Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and J. A. Hart 8:30 AM J3.3 Operational ensemble cloud model forecasts: Some preliminary results   Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, P. C. Banacos, and S. K. Jones 8:45 AM J3.4 Automated Gridded Forecast Guidance for Thunderstorms and Severe Local Storms Based on the Eta Model   Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
	9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday Joint Session 4 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
9:00 AM J4.1 Forecast guidance from NCEP's high resolution nonhydrostatic mesoscale model   Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers, Z. Janjic, H. Chuang, and G. DiMego 9:15 AM J4.2 Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations   John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, G. W. Carbin, M. P. Kay, and L. Brown 9:30 AM J4.3 Analysis of Mesoscale Vertical Circulations using WSR-88D VAD and Wind Profiler Data   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM J4.4 Summer storm initiation and evolution in central Arizona   Pamela L. MacKeen, CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Schultz
	10:00 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-11:15 AM, Tuesday Joint Session 5 The Use of Mesoscale models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
10:30 AM J5.1 A Preliminary Examination of the Performance of Several Mesoscale Models for Convective Forecasting During IHOP   Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. Shaw, M. P. Kay, J. M. Brown, P. Janish, and R. Schneider 10:45 AM J5.2 Parameterization of convection at mesoscale resolution   James M. Done, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and P. A. Clark, G. C. Craig, M. E. B. Gray, and S. L. Gray 11:00 AM J5.3 Impact of GPS water vapor data on RUC severe weather forecasts   Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO and NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and B. Schwartz
	11:15 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 6 The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
11:15 AM J6.1 Mesoscale modeling at WFO Jacksonville: Five years of trying to get Florida severe weather right   Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL 11:30 AM J6.2 Evaluation of a rapidly relocatable high-resolution numerical model for meteorological nowcasting based on MM5   Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, A. M. Gibbs, A. J. Schroeder, and G. K. Hunter 11:45 AM J6.3 Recent Advances in Diabatic Initialization of a Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model   Keith A. Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday LUNCH BREAK
	1:00 PM, Tuesday Weather Briefing
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday Session 4A Phenomenological Forecasting I
Organizer: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 4A.1 An Analysis of the Incorporation of Lightning into the Nowcasting of Enhanced Frozen Precipitation   Peter B. Roohr, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar 1:45 PM 4A.2 Integrated Icing Forecast Algorithm Assessment   Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and K. Price and D. Sims 2:00 PM 4A.3 Short-Term Probabilistic forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility utilizing high-Frequency surface observations   Stephen M. Leyton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch 2:15 PM 4A.4 Comparing Weather Hazards Using the BFM and MM5   Jeffrey E. Passner, Army Reseach Labatory, White Sands Missile Range, NM 2:30 PM 4A.5 TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada and Results   Jacques Montpetit, Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. Wilson, and R. Verret 2:45 PM 4A.6 Signatures of Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain, their Accurate Locations From AMSU-B Data onboard NOAA Satellite   Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Pune, Pune, Maharshtra, India; and P. N. Sen, D. M. Puranik, and R. N. Karekar
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday Session 4B Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Modeling
Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
1:30 PM 4B.1 Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: 4DVar results   N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell and J. Sun 1:45 PM 4B.2 Estimating environmental soundings for use in convective-scale NWP   Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock 2:00 PM 4B.3 Real-time Storm-scale Forecast Support for IHOP 2002 at CAPS   Ming Xue, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Brewster, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and E. Kemp 2:15 PM 4B.4 Sensitivity study on nudging parameters for a mesoscale FDDA system   Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, C. A. Davis, and T. T. Warner 2:30 PM 4B.5 Event-based verification of operational mesoscale NWP   Graham A. Mills, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia 2:45 PM 4B.6 A Framework for Globalization of Regional Atmospheric Models: Dry Core and Quasi-Uniform (QU) Grids   Miodrag Rancic, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Zhang
	3:00 PM, Tuesday COFFEE BREAK WITH THE POSTER SESSION
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Poster Session 1 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19 WAF/15 NWP)
JP1.1 Weather Event Simulator Best Practices   John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. M. Quoetone, E. Page, and M. A. Magsig   JP1.2 Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques   Roger Edwards, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and J. A. Hart   JP1.3 Anticipating and monitoring supercell motion for severe weather operations   Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. J. Bunkers   JP1.4 Paper has been moved to SLS session 16, new paper number 16.7A     JP1.5 Synoptic and mesoscale patterns associated with violent tornadoes across separate geographic regions of the United States: part II—upper-level characteristics   Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and N. Dipasquale and R. Wynne   JP1.6 Lightning nowcasts using WSR-88D derived products and AWIPS   Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and R. Lafosse and T. D. Oram   JP1.7 Enhancements to a new convective sounding analysis program for AWIPS   Xuechao Yu, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; and M. A. Magsig and M. Bunkers   JP1.8 Forecasting extreme rainfall leading to flash flood events in the UK   Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. G. Collier and W. Hand   JP1.9 An Assessment of 3-and 6-h RUC CAPE forecasts   Barry Schwartz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin   JP1.10 Probabilistic forecasts of severe local storms in the 0–3 hour timeframe from an advective-statistical technique   David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, C. Mello, and J. Dai   JP1.11 Visually enhanced composite charts for severe weather forecasting and real-time diagnosis   Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Coraopolis, PA
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Poster Session 2 Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP) new
JP2.1 Observed and Modeled Structure of the Subtropical Sea Breeze   John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX   JP2.2 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast of the 6—7 January 2002 Northeast Snowstorm: Role of initial conditions   William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt   JP2.3 Late November 2001 Winter Precipitation Event Over South Central Texas   Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX   JP2.4 Verification of MM5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes for East Asia   Dean James Carter, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther   JP2.5 ENSO-based forecasting of seasonal tropical cyclone trends from historical analyses of genesis and OLR oscillations   Colin K. Kennedy, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith   JP2.6 Analysis of mesoscale banded features in the 5–6 February 2001 New England snowstorm   David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. S. W. Horwood   JP2.7 The use of a phase shifted verification score to evaluate warm season QPF   Steven L. Aves, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, E. Kalnay, and M. Miller   JP2.8 COAMPSTM Forecasting of Land–falling Fronts   Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA   JP2.9 Forecaster training on NWP through case examples (Formerly paper p1.16)   Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET at NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Bua
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Poster Session 3 The use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
JP3.1 An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center   Phillip D. Bothwell, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Hart and R. L. Thompson   JP3.2 Evaluation of Eta Model Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems   Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin   JP3.3 The Use of the GEM Forecast Model at very high resolution during ELBOW 2001   Patrick King, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Murphy, A. Erfani, and D. Sills
	3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Poster Session 4 The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)
JP4.1 Numerical forecast simulations of precipitation events in complex terrain   J. Wang, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. Capehart, and R. D. Farley   JP4.2 Mesoscale Modeling of Significant Severe Weather and Flash Flood Events at WFO Jackson, MS   Alan Gerard, NOAA/NWS, Jackson, MS; and S. Listemaa   JP4.3 Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on the Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rainfall in Korea   Hee-Dong Yoo, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, K. Brewster, S. Y. Lee, and C. H. Cho   JP4.4 Using 4d-VAR to move a simulated hurricane in a mesoscale model   Ross N. Hoffman, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. M. Henderson and S. M. Leidner   JP4.5 Comparison of Meso Eta Wind Forecasts with TCOON Measurements along the Coast of Texas   Jeremy Alan Stearns, Texas A&M University, Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot, A. R. Patrick, P. Michaud, and W. G. Collins   JP4.6 A Variational Method for Dual-Doppler Radar Retrievals of Wind and Thermodynamic Fields   Shun Liu, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Qiu and Q. Xu   JP4.7 A statistical evaluation of forecasting errors in numerical models for weather prediction of severe rainfalls events in Venezuelan coasts   Jaime E. Guerra, Universidad Nacional Experimental Maritima del Caribe, Estado Vargas, Venezuela; and I. Garcia, J. Jorge, and G. Jaimes   JP4.8 CEDRIC as a software tool for analyzing WRF model output   L. Jay Miller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Fredrick and C. A. Davis
	4:30 PM-6:00 PM, Tuesday Session 5 Mesoscale Processes and Convection
Organizer: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
4:30 PM 5.1 The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model   John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay 4:45 PM 5.2 Quantitative Precipitation in Simulated Deep Convection: Sensitivity to the Hail/Graupel Category   Matthew S. Gilmore, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Straka and E. N. Rasmussen 5:00 PM 5.3 Quality control problems for VAD Winds and NEXRAD Level-II winds in the presence of migrating birds   Li Bi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, P. Zhang, and Q. Xu 5:15 PM 5.4 Forecast uses of terminal doppler weather radar (TDWR) data   Steven M. Zubrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Sterling, VA 5:30 PM 5.5 Large–scale Environment and diurnal cycle of u.s. warm season precipitation episodes   D. A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Carbone, C. A. Davis, and J. D. Tuttle 5:44 PM 5.6 paper moved to session 12, New paper number 12.6   5:45 PM 5.6a Statistical-Dynamical Forecasts of Warm Season Rainfall Over North America (Formerly Paper 3.4)   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, R. E. Carbone, K. W. Manning, and J. Tuttle
	6:00 PM, Tuesday Sessions End for the day
	8:00 PM-10:00 PM, Tuesday Evening Video/Slide Presentation
Wednesday, 14 August 2002
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Session 6 Winter Weather and Climatological Studies
Organizer: John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC Canada
8:00 AM 6.1 Establishing a 10 year climatology of 101.6 mm (4 inch) rainfall days, part I   Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart 8:15 AM 6.2 Can possible heavy rainfall events be identified by comparing various parameters to the climatological norms?   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and N. W. Junker, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart 8:30 AM 6.3 A Northeast Snowstorm Impact Scale   Paul J. Kocin, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and L. W. Uccellini 8:45 AM 6.4 A study of heavy precipitation occurring in continental and marine environments   John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, P. A. Sisson, G. Toth, P. Lewis, and J. K. Parker 9:00 AM 6.5 A climatological and composite study of cold season banded precipitation in the northeast United States   David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. S. Waldstreicher 9:15 AM 6.6 Large-scale circulation anomaly indices in relation to cool-season precipitation events in the northeastern United States   David Groenert, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. H. Grumm 9:30 AM 6.7 Northern Hemisphere warming: A thickness climatology   Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and L. F. Bosart 9:45 AM 6.8 The effects of diabatic redistribution of potential vorticity on cold frontal rainbands and cold front propagation   Heather Dawn Reeves, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
	10:00 AM, Wednesday COFFEE BREAK
	10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday Session 7A Tropical Cyclones
Organizer: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM 7A.1 2001 COAMPSTM tropical cyclone verification in the Northwest Pacific Ocean   Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and B. J. Strahl 10:45 AM 7A.2 An examination of the mesoscale structure associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Agnes (1972)   Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 11:00 AM 7A.3 Quantitative measurements of extratropical transition in the Atlantic Basin   Joshua K. Darr, SUNY, Albany, NY 11:14 AM 7A.4 Paper moved to session 10, New paper number 10.4a   11:15 AM 7A.5 Nonclassical tropopause folding   Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. J. Dickinson and E. H. Atallah 11:30 AM 7A.6 Importance of Tropical easterly waves to the development of surges over the Gulf of California   David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday Session 7B Statistical Evaluation II
Organizer: Jason E. Nachamkin, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM 7B.1 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPStm)   Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin, J. M. Schmidt, and C. S. Liou 10:45 AM 7B.2 Forecast Verification Using Meteorological Event Composites   Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA 11:00 AM 7B.3 Development of an “events-oriented” approach to forecast verification   Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain 11:15 AM 7B.4 A statistical expression for the estimation of MCS precipitation efficiency   Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. N. Allen, R. Scofield, A. Gruber, and R. Kuligowski 11:30 AM 7B.5 A Benchmark Simulation for Testing Moist Nonhydrostatic Numerical Model Formulations   George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch 11:45 AM 7B.6 Regional Verification of Polar MM5 over Alaska   William Courtemanche, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and M. K. Walters
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday LUNCH BREAK
	1:00 PM-1:20 PM, Wednesday Weather Briefing
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday Session 8 Phenomenological Forecasting II
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
1:30 PM 8.1 Numerical Forecasts of freezing rain: Physical processes and Model biases   Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. B. Ek and K. Keeter 1:45 PM 8.2 Verification of real-time non-hydrostatic Eta model forecasts over Southern New England   Marina Tsidulko, UCAR Visiting Scientist and NOAA/National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD; and J. G. W. Kelley 2:00 PM 8.3 Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm Assessment   Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and C. Fidalgo and D. Sims 2:15 PM 8.4 An Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Eta Surface Temperature Forecasts through the Gridded Forecast Editor   Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK 2:30 PM 8.5 Contrasts between good and bad forecasts of warm season MCSs in 10 km Eta simulations using two convective schemes   Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus 2:45 PM 8.6 Characteristics of the Nocturnal Land Breeze over the Kennedy Space Center, Florida   Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Flight Center and ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco and D. A. Short
	3:00 PM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	3:00 PM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-6:00 PM, Wednesday Session 9 WRF Model Development
Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 9.1 A semi-Lagrangian non-hydrostatic model employing a hybrid vertical coordinate   R. James Purser, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. K. Kar, S. Gopalakrishnan, and T. Fujita 3:45 PM 9.2 Testing and Verification of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model   Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and W. Wang 4:00 PM 9.3 WRF model evaluation at the SPC and NSSL   John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and S. J. Weiss 4:15 PM 9.4 Verification of IHOP model runs of MM5 and WRF with diabatic initialization   Paul Schultz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO 4:30 PM 9.5 The effects of subgrid model mixing and numerical filtering in simulations of mesoscale convective systems   Tetsuya Takemi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno 4:45 PM 9.6 Preliminary results from 4 km explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model   Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and J. B. Klemp 5:00 PM 9.7 A Nonhydrostatic Vertical-Slice Model in a Hybrid Sigma-Theta Coordinate   Sajal K. Kar, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser 5:15 PM 9.8 Screen-height Observations Assimilated in an Evolving 1-D PBL with an Ensemble Kalman Filter   Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder 5:30 PM 9.9 A case study comparison of 10-km RUCWRF and RUC model forecasts from the IHOP experiment   Stanley Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. L. Lee, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, and B. L. Shaw 5:45 PM 9.10 Preliminary comparisons of tropical cyclone simulations with the GFDL and WRF Models   David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and R. E. Tuleya
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Fiesta
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
Thursday, 15 August 2002
	8:00 AM-9:58 AM, Thursday Session 10 Data Assimilation I
Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM 10.1 Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model   Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Jin, Y. Lin, T. Black, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego 10.2 Experiments of high-density data in the NCEP Eta Data Assimilation System: NEXRAD radial velocity and satellite radiance data   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Parrish, M. Pondeca, Y. Lin, and G. DiMego 8:14 AM 10.2a Impact of Polar Cloud Track Winds from MODIS on ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts (formerly Paper number 1.6)   Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and J. N. Thépaut, J. Key, D. Santek, and C. S. Velden 8:29 AM 10.3 Background Error Covariance Functions for Radar Wind Analysis   Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Gong 10.4 Ensemble data assimilation as an SDVR technique   William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue 8:43 AM 10.4a The Role of Subsynoptic Processes in Synoptic-scale Extratropical Cyclone Development (Formerly Paper 7a.4)   Kenneth E. Parsons, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and P. J. Smith 8:58 AM 10.5 Rapid-scan single-Doppler velocity retrieval of a thunderstorm outflow   Alan Shapiro, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Robinson and J. Wurman 9:13 AM 10.6 Characterising the Spatial Structure of Observation Errors in Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Data Assimilation   Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Saarinen, J. N. Thépaut, and G. Kelly 9:28 AM 10.7 Impacts of Initial Analyses and Observations on the Convective-Scale Data Assimilation with an Ensemble-Kalman Filter   Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and J. Sun 9:43 AM 10.8 High-resolution RUC forecasts for PACJET: Real-time NWS guidance and retrospective data impact tests   Steve Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, C. S. Velden, J. E. Burks, and L. B. Nance
	10:00 AM, Thursday COFFEE BREAK
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday Session 11 Ensembles
Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
10:30 AM 11.1 An Examination of Regional Ensemble Forecasting Techniques during three Winter Storms   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart 10:45 AM 11.2 Flow Dependent Background Error Covariance and Mesoscale Predictability Estimation through Ensemble Forecasting   Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. Ham and A. Aksoy 11:00 AM 11.3 Effects of nesting frequency and lateral boundary perturbations on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts   Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Stensrud and M. Xue 11:15 AM 11.4 Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Tropical and Mid-latitude Cyclones   Mohan K. Ramamurthy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett, B. Cui, and H. Liu 11:30 AM 11.5 Results of using the PSU shallow convection scheme in an ensemble mode: Effects on mass flux profiles and thermodynamic tendencies   Ricardo C. Muñoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng 11:45 AM 11.6 Using adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities to characterize forecast uncertainty   Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist and G. A. Postel
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday LUNCH BREAK
	1:00 PM-1:20 PM, Thursday Weather Briefing
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday Session 12 Data Assimilation II
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
1:30 PM 12.1 A comparison between the 4D-Var and the ensemble filter techniques for radar data assimilation   A. H. Caya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun and C. Snyder 1:45 PM 12.2 Anisotropic background error correlations in a 3D-var system   M. S. F. V. De Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. F. Parrish, R. J. Purser, W. S. Wu, J. C. Derber, and G. DiMego 2:00 PM 12.3 Cloud/hydrometeor initialization in the 20-km RUC Using radar and GOES data   Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and J. M. Brown 2:15 PM 12.4 New Development of a 3dvar system for a Nonhydrostatic NWP Model   Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier 2:30 PM 12.5 A new version of RUC 3DVAR   Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt 2:45 PM 12.6 Impact Assesment of a Doppler Wind Lidar for OSSE/NPOESS (Formerly Paper 5.6)   Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, J. Terry, R. Atlas, T. J. Kleespies, and H. Sun
	3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Thursday Session 13 High Resolution Prediction
3:30 PM 13.1 The Met Office's new global and mesoscale NWP models   Glenn T. Greed, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Milton, I. Culverwell, D. Cameron, and D. Li 3:45 PM 13.2 High winds and high resolution at the Met Office   Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom 4:00 PM 13.3 Development of a nonhydrostatic model for very short-range forecasting at JMA   Tsukasa Fujita, Japan Meteorological Agency, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Saito, Y. Yamada, J. I. Ishida, M. Narita, S. Goto, C. Muroi, T. Kato, and H. Eito 4:15 PM 13.4 A High Resolution Numerical Simulation of the Landfall of Hurricane Opal (1995)   Glen Romine, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Wilhelmson 4:30 PM 13.5 Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Allison (2001)   Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 4:45 PM 13.6 Uncertainty in numerical mesoscale modeling by the use of a topography defined via map projections   Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico 5:00 PM 13.7 Use of the NCEP MesoEta Data in a Water Level Predicting Neural Network   Andrew R. Patrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Corpus Christi, TX; and W. G. Collins, P. E. Tissot, A. Drikitis, J. Stearns, P. R. Michaud, and D. T. Cox 5:15 PM 13.8 An exploration of several techniques to try to improve warm season rainfall forecasts in the Upper Midwest   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and B. R. Temeyer 5:30 PM 13.9 Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: Ensemble Kalman filter results   David Dowell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, L. Wicker, C. Snyder, B. Skamarock, and A. Crook
	5:45 PM, Thursday Sessions end for the day
	8:00 PM-10:00 PM, Thursday Evening Video/Slide Presentation
Friday, 16 August 2002
	8:00 AM-9:44 AM, Friday Session 14 Model Improvements
8:00 AM 14.1 The 20-km RUC in operations   Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, B. E. Schwartz, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, D. Kim, G. A. Grell, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin 8:15 AM 14.2 Wind and Temperature Retrieval From TOMS Data for Weather Analysis and Prediction   Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and X. Zou 8:30 AM 14.3 A Decade + of the Eta Performance, including that beyond Two Days: Any Lessons for the Road Ahead?   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, K. Brill, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers 8:45 AM 14.4 Adaptation of the Canadian Updateable Model Output System to forecasting marine winds on the great lakes Great Lakes   Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson and M. Vallee 9:00 AM 14.5 Parameter Retrieval in a Land-surface Model   Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and J. Gao 9:15 AM 14.6 PERFORMANCE AND ENHANCEMENTS OF THE NCAR/ATEC MESOSCALE FDDA AND FORECASTING SYSTEM   Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and S. Low-Nam, R. S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. Davis, T. Warner, J. Bowers, M. Xu, H. M. Hsu, and D. Rife 14.7 Evaluation of Eta Model Seasonal Forecasts over South America   Sin Chan Chou, Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and J. L. Gomes and J. F. Bustamante 9:29 AM 14.8 Domain of validity of some computational mesoscale models   Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico
	10:00 AM, Friday COFFEE BREAK
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday Session 15 Techniques to Maximize the Value of Model Output
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
10:30 AM 15.1 Local PoP forecast Equations for Philadelphia, PA   Mark P. DeLisi, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and A. M. Cope 10:45 AM 15.2 Combining objective and subjective information to improve forecast evaluation   Michael P. Kay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin 11:00 AM 15.3 Eta-based MOS probability of preciptation amount guidance for the continental United States   Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 11:15 AM 15.4 GFE-Based Temperature Verification-One Approach   Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID 11:30 AM 15.5 How Traditional NWS Verification Encourages "Hedging", and a Possible Remedy   Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID 11:45 AM 15.6 Forecasting Applications of Synoptic Observation for Some Selected Parameters at Addis Ababa. Part I : Frequency of Weather Events against Wind, Dew-point Temperature and Pressure   Yitaktu Tesfatsion, National Meteorological Services Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
	12:00 PM, Friday Conference Ends

Browse the complete program of The 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction