* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 29 July 2001
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
	7:00 PM, Sunday 1 Opening Reception with Conference Overview (Cash Bar)
Monday, 30 July 2001
	7:30 AM, Monday 1 Conference Registration Continues through Thursday, 2 August
	9:00 AM-9:10 AM, Monday Welcoming Remarks and Joint Session Overview
Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS
	9:10 AM-10:30 AM, Monday Joint Session 1 Mesoscale Models (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS
9:10 AM J1.1 Operational overview of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)   Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. Wegiel, S. Applequist, and S. Hausman 9:30 AM J1.2 The next version of the Canadian operational GEM regional mesoscale model   Jocelyn Mailhot, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Bélair, A. Tremblay, A. Méthot, B. Bilodeau, L. -. P. Crevier, and A. Glazer 9:50 AM J1.3 Recent and Planned Changes to the NCEP Eta Analysis and Forecast System   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, G. J. DiMego, Y. Lin, K. E. Mitchell, D. Parrish, M. B. Ek, and B. Ferrier 10:10 AM J1.4 Recent developments of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)   Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, S. Chen, J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, D. Westphal, X. Hong, J. Pullen, M. Liu, J. Cummings, A. Mirin, and G. A. Sugiyama
	10:30 AM, Monday 1 Coffee Break
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Monday Joint Session 1 Mesoscale Models: Continued (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
11:00 AM J1.5 Prototypes for the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) Model   William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Klemp and J. Dudhia 11:20 AM J1.6 Current Status of the ARPS Modeling System   Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 11:40 AM Discussion
	12:00 PM, Monday 1 Lunch Break
	12:30 PM-1:00 PM, Monday 1 Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO
	1:00 PM-2:20 PM, Monday Session 1 Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques
Organizer: Edward Barker, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:00 PM 1.1 DAO's next generation physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system: Formulation and initial evaluation   Arlindo M. da Silva, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. -. J. Lin, J. Joiner, and D. P. Dee 1:20 PM 1.2 Recent developments of the Met Office 3D-Var system   N. Bruce Ingleby, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. P. Ballard, R. S. Bell, A. Berney, B. Candy, S. English, D. Li, A. C. Lorenc, R. J. Renshaw, and J. K. Ridley 1:40 PM 1.3 Implementation of the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System   Edward Barker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Daley and J. Goerss 2:00 PM 1.4 The operational 4D-Var data assimilation system of Meteo-France: specific characteristics and behaviour in the special case of the 99 Xmas storms over France   Jean-François Geleyn, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and D. Banciu, M. Bellus, R. El Khatib, P. Moll, P. Saez, and J. N. Thépaut
	2:20 PM-2:30 PM, Monday 1 Poster Session Overview
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday Poster Session 1 Poster Session - Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques—with Coffee Break
Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
P1.1 Regional studies and applications with a variable-resolution stretched-grid data assimilation system   Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD   P1.2 Assimilation and forecast of Hurricane Floyd with the DAO Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System   Jiun-Dar Chern, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. J. Lin and A. M. da Silva   P1.3 A finite-volume “shaving” method for interfacing NASA/DAO’s Physical Space Statistical Analysis System to the finite-volume GCM with a Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinate   Shian-Jiann Lin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva   P1.4 Moisture analysis in the DAO physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system   Dick P. Dee, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva   P1.5 Model bias correction in the DAO physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system   Banglin Zhang, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. P. Dee, A. M. da Silva, and R. Todling   P1.6 A Tendency-Correction Procedure for Assimilating Rainfall Data in the Presence of Model Errors   Sara Zhang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva and A. Y. Hou   P1.7 Global 3D variational analysis on physical space   Wan-Shu Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and R. J. Purser   P1.8 The Met Office 3D-Var stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system   Richard Swinbank, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and N. B. Ingleby, P. M. Boorman, and R. J. Renshaw   P1.9 Evaluation of a bogus vortex technique using four-dimensional variational data assimilation   Zhao-Xia Pu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun   P1.10 Impact of Diabatic Processes on 4-Dimensional Variation with the Global Spectral Model at NCEP/NOAA   S. Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and X. Zou and J. E. Ahlquist   P1.11 On providing a cloud-balanced initial condition for diabatic initialization   John A. McGinley, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart   P1.12 Adaptive tuning of observation error parameters in a variational data assimilation   Gerald Desroziers, Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and B. Chapnik, S. Ivanov, and F. Rabier   P1.13 Estimation of model and data biases using the variational data assimilation method   Chungu Lu, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and O. Talagrand
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday Joint Poster Session 1 Poster Session - Mesoscale Models—with Coffee Break (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
Organizer: Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
JP1.1 On the concept of relative buoyancy   Charles A. Doswell III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. M. Markowski   JP1.2 Foretell: An operational forecasting system designed for the surface transportation community   John S. Snook, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO   JP1.3 Regional scale modeling for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games   Daryl J. Onton, CIRP, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. J. Siffert, L. Cheng, W. J. Steenburgh, and B. Haymore   JP1.4 Commercial Application of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)   Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett   JP1.5 Development of A coupled air-lake mesoscale model for operational marine forecasting in the Great Lakes region   Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and G. E. Mann, D. J. Schwab, and R. B. Wagenmaker   JP1.6 An objective evaluation and regime classification of RAMS forecast errors during the 2000 Florida warm season   Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati   JP1.7 Comparison Between the Performance of Eta and Sigma Modes in the NCEP Meso Eta Model   Hui-Ya Chuang, General Sciences Corp., Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego and T. Black   JP1.8 Event-based verification of mesoscale model wind forecasts using SSM/I   Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA   JP1.9 A quantitative comparison of MM5 cloud forecasts and GOES cloud analyses   Michael A. Kelly, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and R. J. Alliss, M. E. Loftus, and J. C. Lefever   JP1.10 Mesoscale numerical modeling: comparative analysis of convective initiation between dissimilar mesoscale numerical models   Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and W. Shulz and A. J. Reiss   JP1.11 High-resolution simulations of Hurricane Floyd using MM5 with vortex-following mesh refinement   Joseph E. Tenerelli, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen   JP1.12 Uses Of High-resolution Mesoscale Modeling To Support Army Research and Development, Testing, and Evaluation   Scott Swerdlin, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers   JP1.13 Extratropical Transitions: Forecasted vs. Observed Evolution   Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   JP1.14 A numerical simulation of a rare lake-effect snowfall in Western Nevada   Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and J. Corey and D. R. Koracin   JP1.15 The construction of the numerical schemes in the Hermitian finite elements spaces   Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland   JP1.16 Ageostrophic Forcing in a height tendency equation: two case studies.   Anthony R. Lupo, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO
	4:00 PM-5:00 PM, Monday Session 1 Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques: Continued
4:00 PM 1.5 An overview of the DAO Terra GEOS Data Assimilation System   Ricardo Todling, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. L. Takacs 4:20 PM 1.6 The Canadian 3D-Var Analysis Scheme on model vertical coordinate   Clément Chouinard, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and C. Charette, J. Hallé, P. Gauthier, J. Morneau, and R. Sarrazin 4:40 PM 1.7 Data Assimilation at the Air Force Weather Agency   Richard L. Ritz, Affiliated Computer Services, Inc., Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and M. D. McAtee and R. T. Swanson
	8:00 PM, Monday Panel Discussion 1 Joint Panel and Group Discussion: How will the role of humans in mesoscale weather prediction change during the next few decades? (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes and the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)
Panelists: Paul Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; Neil Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; Kim Curry, NPMOC, San Diego, CA Moderator: William Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS
Tuesday, 31 July 2001
	8:00 AM-9:29 AM, Tuesday Joint Session 2 Mesoscale Data Assimilation (Parallel with Session 3) (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS
8:00 AM J2.0a Potential Applications of 4D-Var for Mesoscale Data Assimilation (invited presentation) (Formerly Paper J2.13)   Xiaolei Zou, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL 8:25 AM Discussion   8:30 AM J2.1 A Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme For a Storm Scale Model   Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier J2.2 Preliminary results with the nested version of NAVDAS data assimilation system for COAMPS   Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. H. Barker, R. Daley, N. L. Baker, and P. M. Pauley 8:44 AM J2.2A Assimilating Single-Doppler Radar Observations into Mesoscale Models (Formerly Mesoscale paper 4.4)   Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. Gu and J. Gong 8:59 AM J2.3 The 20-km version of the RUC   Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, B. E. Schwartz, D. Kim, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin 9:14 AM Discussion
	9:30 AM, Tuesday 1 Coffee Break
	10:00 AM-11:58 AM, Tuesday Joint Session 2 Mesoscale Data Assimilation: Continued (Parallel with session 5) (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
10:00 AM J2.4 Initial Verification Of The MM5 3DVAR Data Assimilation System   Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Huang, Y. R. Guo, and F. C. Vandenberghe 10:15 AM J2.5 The WRF 3D-Var analysis system   W.-S. Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Xue, T. W. Schlatter, R. J. Purser, M. D. McAtee, J. Gao, D. Devenyi, J. C. Derber, D. M. Barker, S. G. Benjamin, and R. Aune 10:29 AM J2.6 Paper has been moved to Joint Poster Session JP2, Paper Number JP2.5A   10:30 AM J2.6a EXPLICIT INITIALIZATION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS (Formerly Paper JP2.5)   Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. A. McGinley and P. Schultz 10:45 AM J2.7 Spring 2001 changes to NCEP Eta analysis and forecast system: assimilation of observed precipitation data   Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. E. Baldwin, K. E. Mitchell, E. Rogers, and G. J. DiMego 11:00 AM J2.8 The four-dimensional variational data assimilation system for the JMA mesoscale model   Ko Koizumi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan J2.9 An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center   John Hart, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and P. Bothwell and S. Benjamin 11:14 AM J2.9a Data assimilation & forecast tests of a new integration scheme for the Met Office Unified Model (Formerly WAF/NWP paper P2.15)   Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. Davies, R. S. Bell, and A. M. Clayton 11:29 AM J2.10 3DVAR analysis in the Rapid Update Cycle   Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. Weygandt 11:44 AM J2.11 An operational mesoscale RT-FDDA analysis and forecast system   Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, R. S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers J2.12 Adjusting Soil temperature and Moisture using Surface Observations: intial results from a single column model (Formerly Mesoscale Paper 4.3)   Kiran Alapaty, MCNC-Environmental Programs, Research Triangle Park, NC; and D. D. S. Niyogi and M. Alapaty
	12:00 PM, Tuesday 1 Lunch Break
	12:30 PM, Tuesday 1 Joint Weather Briefing By Miami NWS WFO
	1:00 PM-2:20 PM, Tuesday Session 2 Winter 2000–2001 Storm Events
Organizer: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
1:00 PM 2.1 Sensitivity to initial state and grid resolution in the prediction of the January 2000 East Coast snowstorm   Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno 1:20 PM 2.2 AFWA MM5 Performance During the "Millenium Storm" and the Winter 2000–2001 Storm Season   Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and R. J. Swanson, R. J. Craig, R. B. Telfeyan, J. J. Wesely, C. Stock, and R. Nielsen 1:40 PM 2.3 Impact of initial conditions on local modeling   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and G. Bryan 2:00 PM 2.4 Experiments with the NCEP Eta model for the 30–31 December 2000 East Coast Snowstorm : sensitivity to initial conditions and sea surface temperature   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin and K. Brill
	2:20 PM-2:30 PM, Tuesday 1 Poster Session Overview
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Tuesday Poster Session 2 Poster Session - Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation—with Coffee Break
Organizer: William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS
P2.1 Experiences from SCRAPE2000—Summer Convective Rainfall in Alabama Prediction Experiment   John T. Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and R. E. Kilduff, R. E. McNeil, K. J. Pence, P. Hart, and W. M. Lapenta   P2.2 Sensitivity of short-term forecasts from the Navy COAMPS to grid configuration and data assimilation   Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur   P2.3 Evaluation of Local-Scale Forecasts for Severe Weather of July 20, 2000   Daniel Birkenheuer, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, S. Albers, and E. J. Szoke   P2.4 Comparisons of RUC 20-km and 40-km forecasts for 24 May 2000   Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Schwartz and J. M. Brown   P2.5 Short-term forecasting at Kennedy Space Center using the ARPS Data Analysis System   Timothy D. Oram, NASA/Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and J. L. Case   P2.6 Operational Use of Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at Dugway Proving Ground   Susan E. Krippner, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and S. F. Halvorson, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam   P2.7 A Quantitative Evaluation On The Performance Of A Real-Time Mesoscale FDDA And Forecasting System Under Different Synoptic Situations   Rong-Shyang Sheu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam   P2.8 Remarks on Northern Hemisphere forecast error sensitivity from 1996 to 2000   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro   P2.9 A Meteorological Reanalysis for 1991 Persian Gulf War   J. J. Shi, SAIC, McLean, VA; and S. W. Chang, T. R. Holt, and T. F. Hogan   P2.10 A study on forecasting two cases of severe convection: implications for forecast guidance   Milton S. Speer, BOM, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and L. Qi P2.11 Interesting issues regarding precipitation verification   Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin P2.12 Effects of NCEP/DOE Reanalysis Soil Moisture on Forecast Skill   Wesley Ebisuzaki, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Kanamitsu   P2.13 The effect of using LAPS in the mesoscale numerical prediction for heavy rainfall   Seung-On Hwang, MRI, Seoul, Korea; and Y. -. S. Kim and J. -. W. Seo   P2.14 Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation for MM5 and COAMPS   Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and P. J. Croft, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and S. Reddy   P2.15 Paper has been move to Joint Session J2, Paper Number J2.9A     P2.16 Comparison of SSM/I derived sea surface winds with NWP model analysis   R. M. Khaladkar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and P. N. Mahajan and P. K. Pal   P2.17 Verification of RAMS forecast sea breezes and thunderstorm initiation over east-central Florida   Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati   P2.18 Toward a surface data time continuum: use of the Kalman Filter to Create a Continuous, Quality Controlled Surface Data Set (Formerly Paper Number 6.3)   John A. McGinley, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Tuesday Joint Poster Session 2 Poster Session - Mesoscale Data Assimilation—with Coffee Break (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
JP2.1 Impact of model error and precipitation observations in mesoscale 4DVAR data assimilation   Dusanka Zupanski, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Zupanski, D. F. Parrish, G. J. DiMego, and E. Rogers   JP2.2 Cloud/hydrometeor initialization for the 20-km RUC using satellite and radar data   Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin   JP2.3 A Real-time, Three-dimensional Cloud Analysis System at the Naval Research Laboratory   Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, K. Sashegyi, Q. Xu, and L. Wei   JP2.4 Expanding the Variational Methods in the LAPS Moisture Analysis   Daniel Birkenheuer, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO   JP2.5 Paper Number JP2.5 has been moved to Joint Session J2, Paper Number J2.6A     JP2.5a The use of three-dimensional analyses of cloud attributes for diabatic initialization of mesoscale models (Formerly Paper J2.6)   Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers   JP2.6 NIDS-Based Intermittent Diabatic Assimilation and Application to Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction   Donghai Wang, Hampton Univ. and NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. K. Droegemeier, D. Jahn, K. -. M. Xu, M. Xue, and J. Zhang   JP2.7 On the Added Value of High-Resolution Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in a Mesoscale Model   Brian P. Reen, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, K. J. Davis, A. R. Desai, and R. J. Dobosy   JP2.8 The introduction of a local objective analysis module in the numerical forecast system at the Brazilian national weather service   Ligia R. Bernardet, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brasilia, Brazil; and R. B. Silveira, J. P. Edwards, J. M. D. Mol, and A. F. M. Falcão   JP2.9 An operational Local Data Integration System (LDIS) at NWS Melbourne   Peter F. Blottman, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt, D. W. Sharp, A. J. Cristaldi, J. L. Case, and J. Manobianco   JP2.10 Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into Mesoscale Models   William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC NSSTC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Suggs, R. T. McNider, G. Jedlovec, and S. R. Dembek   JP2.11 Application of the Bratseth Scheme for High Latitude Intermittent Data Assimilation Using the PSU/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale Model   Xingang Fan, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley   JP2.12 Revisiting the utility of Newtonian nudging for four dimensional data assimilation in high latitude mesoscale forecasts   Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Fan   JP2.13 Use of a Snow Prediction Scheme in a Mesoscale Realtime FDDA System   Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, R. S. Sheu, and J. Dudhia   JP2.14 Impact of Continuous Real-Time FDDA on Short-Term (0-12 hour) Forecasts   Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, S. Low-Nam, and R. S. Sheu   JP2.15 New sea-surface temperature analysis implemented at NCEP   Jean Thiebaux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Katz and W. Wang JP2.16 Operational evaluation of the new sea-surface temperature analysis implemented at NCEP   James L. Partain, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD   JP2.17 Refractivity Data Assimilation   Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Nai, T. Rogers, T. Haack, and S. Burk   JP2.18 A MM5-based four-dimensional variational analysis system developed for distributed memory multiprocessor computers   Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and G. D. Modica, T. Nehrkorn, M. Cerniglia, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou
	4:00 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday Session 2 Winter 2000-2001 Storm Events: Continued
4:00 PM 2.5 Verification and Evaluation of NOGAPS and COAMPS Analyses and Forecasts for the 24–26 January 2000 East Coast Cyclone   Carlyle H. Wash, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. Schmeiser and P. M. Pauley 4:20 PM 2.6 Observation Sensitivity and the Mix of Observing Systems   Nancy L. Baker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. H. Langland 4:40 PM 2.7 Using lagged average forecasts to identify initialization errors   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. E. Hart
	8:00 PM, Tuesday Panel Discussion 2 Joint Panel and Group Discussion: Has Mesoscale modeling outpaced our undersatnding of basic physical processes? (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes and the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)
Panelists: Cliff Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Richard Hodur, NRL, Monterey, CA Moderator: Charles Doswell, III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Wednesday, 1 August 2001
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Session 3 Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation
Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
8:00 AM 3.1 Recent Development Activities in Weather, Water and Climate Forecast System Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center   Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Petersen, G. J. DiMego, H. L. Pan, D. B. Rao, M. Ji, K. E. Mitchell, J. C. Derber, and N. Surgi 8:20 AM 3.2 On 4D-Var and the use of pressure tendency data to analyse the intensification-rate of baroclinic storms   Erik H. Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 8:40 AM 3.3 Studies with the DAO Retrospective Analysis System   Ricardo Todling, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Zhu 9:00 AM 3.4 Verification of 20-km RUC surface and precipitation forecasts   Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin 9:20 AM 3.5 Assimilation and Forecasting Experiments on Supercell Storms: Part I: Experiments with Simulated Data   Juanzhen Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook 9:40 AM 3.6 Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms. Part II: Experiments with WSR-88D data   N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun
	10:00 AM, Wednesday 1 Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-11:50 AM, Wednesday Session 3 Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation: Continued
10:30 AM 3.7 Verification of cloud forecasts with in-situ aircraft measurements   Hong Guan, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and S. G. Cober and G. A. Isaac 10:50 AM 3.8 Extreme Rainfall Prediction for a Watershed on the East Coast of Australia   Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and M. S. Speer and L. Qi 11:10 AM 3.9 OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE LAPS-MM5 "HOT START" LOCAL FORECAST MODEL   Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and E. R. Thaler and E. J. Szoke 11:30 AM 3.10 On the relative importance of operational aircraft winds and satellite-derived winds in the depiction of atmospheric flow in the North Pacific   Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. Barker
	12:00 PM, Wednesday 1 Lunch Break
	12:30 PM, Wednesday 1 Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO
	1:00 PM-2:20 PM, Wednesday Session 4 Instruments and Data Collection
Organizer: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
1:00 PM 4.1 Observing System Simulation Experiments for NPOESS   Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Masutani, J. S. Woollen, J. C. Derber, R. Atlas, J. Terry, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, and T. J. Kleespies 1:20 PM 4.2 The Impact of QuikScat on Weather Analysis and Forecasting   Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. C. Bloom, J. Ardizzone, E. Brin, J. Terry, and T. -. W. Yu 1:40 PM 4.3 Satellite data assimilation: impact on tropical cyclone forecast   J.-M. Willemet, Météo France, Ste Clotilde, La Réunion, France; and A. Lasserre-Bigorry 2:00 PM 4.4 observations and numerical simulations of tropopause PV trough filamentation and "Cut-Off" Low development over the North Pacific Ocean   Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/OAR/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, C. S. Velden, D. Parrish, and Z. Toth
	2:20 PM, Wednesday 1 Poster Session Overview
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday Poster Session 3 Poster Session - Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development—with Coffee Break
Organizer: Carlyle H. Wash, NPS, Monterey, CA
P3.1 Development of MOS Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Equations with Multiple Data Sources   Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD   P3.2 A statistical system for short-term probabilistic forecasts of thunderstorms using high-resolution datasets   Joby L. Hilliker, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch   P3.3 Wildfire outbreak and suppression: Cases from 1998 Florida Wildfires   Charles H. Paxton, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL; and A. G. Laing, S. L. Goodrick, and C. Maxwell   P3.4 On the formation of a strong snowfall gradient in a Midwestern snowstorm: Wave synergy, deformation, and the TROWAL   Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and D. Cissell and C. E. Halcomb   P3.5 Left-moving thunderstorms in a high plains, weakly-sheared environment   John F. Weaver, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Dostalek and L. Phillips   P3.6 Poster has been moved to Poster Session P5, number P5.17     P3.7 APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES TO ANALYSIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS PROCESSES   Dariusz Chaladyniak, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and I. A. Winnicki   P3.8 Numerical models results application to mesoscale weather forecasting   Slawomir A. Pietrek, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and J. M. Jasinski   P3.9 Improving forecasts of dense fog over north Florida   Mark R. Jarvis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, P. H. Ruscher, and A. I. Watson   P3.10 Multi-dimensional analysis of an extreme thundersnow event during the 30 December 2000 snowstorm   Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA   P3.11 Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm 2001 Meteorological Evaluation   Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. Sims and V. Passetti   P3.12 Model Trends and Satellite Imagery in Forecasting   Brian Motta, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Grumm and A. Mostek   P3.13 Mesoscale Meteorology "Primer": Training for the Operational Forecaster   Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Curry   P3.14 An Extensive Set of NWP Training Materials on the Web   Richard E. Cianflone, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and W. Schreiber-Abshire, W. Bua, and S. Jascourt P3.15 Cold front or baroclinic trough?   Frederick Sanders, Sanders Research Enterprises, Marblehead, MA   P3.16 An Evaluation of the National Weather Service Severe Weather Warning Performance in Florida Based on the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 (WSR-88D)   Fred R. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and P. T. Welsh and C. Herbster   P3.17 Advancing Operational Forecasting Through Collaborative Applied Research Programs at the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory   Paul R. Janish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin P3.18 A discovery of high efficient summer drought and flood forecast field with eddy energy hysteresis phenomena existence in fact   Shouzheng Tao, Chinese Agricultural University, Beijing, China; and Z. Dawei
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday Poster Session 4 Poster Session - Instruments and Data Collection—with Coffee Break
Organizer: John McGinley, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
P4.1 Developments in the correction of radiosonde relative humidity biases at The Met Office   Martin C. Sharpe, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson   P4.2 Assimilating satellite wind, moisture, and temperature for numerical forecast improvements during the PACific landfalling JETs (PACJET) experiment   John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, M. C. Morgan, D. Kleist, D. Stettner, K. Goodstein, H. M. Kim, and B. Baum   P4.3 Assimilation of GOES rapid-Scan winds into an experimental ETA model during Hurricane Keith   Howard I. Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden   P4.4 GWINDEX—GOES rapid-scan WINDs EXperiment: Applications for west coast forecasting   Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Stettner   P4.5 Assimilation of rapid-scan satellite cloud motion vectors into the RUC model in support of the PACJET experiment   Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and C. S. Velden   P4.6 Impact of GMS-5 and GOES-9 Satellite-Derived Winds on the Prediction of a NORPEX Extratropical Cyclone   Qingnong Xiao, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, M. Pondeca, M. A. Shapiro, and C. S. Velden   P4.7 Use/impact of NESDIS GOES wind data within an operational mesoscale FDDA system   Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Daniels, W. Bresky, Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, and R. S. Sheu   P4.8 Utilization of satellite scatterometer wind measurements and NEXRAD precipitation data to improve regional ocean forecasts   David E. Weissman, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY; and J. S. Tongue, M. A. Bourassa, and L. A. Bliven P4.9 Assimilation of QuikScat winds in MM5 model for track and intensity prediction of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones   Mukul Tewari, IBM, India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal   P4.10 Assimilation of radar data for 1–4 hour snowband forecasting using a mesoscale model   Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, J. Sun, and R. Rasmussen   P4.11 Initialization of a hurricane vortex with single-Doppler radar data   Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald and W. C. Lee   P4.12 A modeling study of Hurricane Danny (1997) using an artificial initial vortex   Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL   P4.13 Assimilation of Cloud- and Land-Affected TOVS/ATOVS Level 1B Radiances in DAO's Next Generation Finite-volume Data Assimilation System   Joanna Joiner, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva   P4.14 A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THERMIC INFRARED MEASUREMENTS   Didier Gillotay, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium; and T. Besnard and F. Zanghi   P4.15 Lightning Analysis And Forecasting   Jean Souviron, AES, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. Jacob, V. Turcotte, R. Frenette, and M. Nadeau   P4.16 Lightning Watch and Warning Support to Spacelift Operations   Johnny W. Weems, Air Force Weather Agency, Patrick AFB, FL; and C. S. Pinder, W. P. Roeder, and B. F. Boyd   P4.17 Considerations in providing a natural dataset for lidar OSSE studies   Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart and L. S. Wharton   P4.18 Impact of Lidar Wind Sounding on Mesoscale Forecast   Shih-Hung Chou, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and T. L. Miller   P4.19 Comparison of SSM/I Derived Sea surface Winds with NWP Model Analysis   R. M. Khaladkar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and P. N. Mahajan and P. K. Pal
	4:00 PM-5:00 PM, Wednesday Session 4 Instruments and Data Collection
Organizer: William Burnett, CNMOC, Stennis Space Center, MS
4:00 PM 4.5 Impact of lost Russian RAOBs on numerical weather prediction skill   M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Kistler, Y. Zhu, and J. Giraytys 4:20 PM 4.6 Toward improved use of GOES satellite derived winds at the NCEP environmental modelling center (EMC)   Xiujuan Su, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Derber, S. J. Lord, C. S. Velden, and J. Daniels 4:40 PM 4.7 Physical and Computational Considerations for the Use of GPS Occultation Observations in NWP   X. Zou, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Liu, H. Shao, F. C. Vandenberghe, R. A. Anthes, and B. Wang
	7:00 PM-10:45 PM, Wednesday 1 Conference Cruise and Dinner
Thursday, 2 August 2001
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday Session 5 Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development
Organizer: Kim Curry, Naval Pacific METOC Center, San Diego, CA
8:00 AM 5.1 The THOR project-Reducing the impact of thunderstorms on aviation and the general public through a multi-agency effort   Stephan B. Smith, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Pace, S. J. Goodman, D. W. Burgess, D. Smarsh, R. D. Roberts, and M. M. Wolfson 8:20 AM 5.2 Operational surface mesoanalysis   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. M. Saleeby 8:40 AM 5.3 Observational data and MOS: the challenges in creating high-quality guidance   Rebecca L. Allen, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD 9:00 AM 5.4 A comparison of current and proposed surface analysis techniques   Eric G. Hoffman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and F. Sanders 9:20 AM 5.5 A lake effect snowfall in Western Nevada—Part I: Synoptic setting and observations   Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and R. Collins, T. Cylke, M. Deutschendorf, and D. Mercer 9:40 AM 5.6 A lake effect snowfall in western Nevada—part II: radar characteristics and quantitative precipitation estimates   Arlen W. Huggins, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. E. Kingsmill and M. M. Cairns
	10:00 AM, Thursday 1 Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-11:50 AM, Thursday Session 5 Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development: Continued
10:30 AM 5.7 A preliminary investigation of the genesis of Atlantic tropical storms in the 2000 Hurricane season using the Operational Global data   V. Mohan Karyampudi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Davison 10:50 AM 5.8 Evolution of Hurricane Michael (2000) from cold- to warm- to cold-core over a 5-day period: Observations and modeling   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. F. Bosart, J. Molinari, C. S. Velden, and J. L. Evans 11:10 AM 5.9 Overview of 2 difficult forecast scenarios for the mid atlantic U.S. during the 2000–2001 winter season—lessons from data analysis   Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA 11:30 AM 5.10 Detection and Evaluation of the Effects of Split Fronts on the Evolution of Appalachian Cold Air Damming   Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Koch and G. M. Lackmann
	12:00 PM, Thursday 1 Lunch Break
	12:30 PM-1:00 PM, Thursday 1 Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO
	1:00 PM-2:20 PM, Thursday Session 6 Ensembles (Please note that the paper numbering for this session has changed since it was originally published)
Organizer: Thomas Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
1:00 PM 6.1 An overview of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO 1:20 PM 6.2 Data Assimilation with an Unstable Shallow Water System Using A Cycling Representer Algorithm   Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Daley 1:39 PM 6.3 Paper 6.3 has been moved to Poster Session P2, Number P2.18   1:40 PM 6.4 Ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation   Milija Zupanski, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD 2:00 PM 6.5 Forecast sensitivity of extratropical transition intensification to downstream synoptic-scale perturbations   John R. Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and R. J. McTaggart-Cowan
	2:20 PM, Thursday Session 1 Poster Session Overview
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Thursday Poster Session 5 Poster Session - Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development—with Coffee Break
Organizer: Jeff Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO, Brookhaven, NY
P5.1 Mid-Level Dry Intrusions as a Factor in Tornadogenesis Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Central and Western Gulf Area   Lon Curtis, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX   P5.2 Short-Term Forecasting of Cloud Ceiling Categories at Kennedy Space Center for the Space Shuttle Program   Winifred C. Lambert, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO, Inc, Cocoa Beach, FL   P5.3 Utilizing the Warning Decision Support System for Detecting Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Storm Helene   Thomas J. Turnage, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL   P5.4 High resolution precipitation climatologies from radar data   Henry E. Fuelberg, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and G. S. Quina, B. A. Mroczka, R. J. Lanier, J. Bradberry, and J. P. Breidenbach   P5.5 A 20-Year Synoptic Climatology of the South Plains Dewpoint / Dryline   Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Doggett and R. E. Peterson   P5.6 A 30-year climatology of convective snow events for the contiguous United States   Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. E. Halcomb and R. L. Ebert   P5.7 A Comprehensive Climatology of Appalachian Cold Air Damming   Christopher M. Bailey, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann, G. Hartfield, and K. Keeter   P5.8 An objective climatology of Carolina coastal fronts   Wyat K. Appel, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. J. Riordan   P5.9 A River and Flash Flood Climatology of Southern New England: Results from 1994–2000   David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and J. DelliCarpini   P5.10 A team-based forecast process using medium range model consistency loops   Eric F. Grelson, U.S. Air Force, Barksdale AFB, LA; and C. J. Lee   P5.11 Development of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensification Index   Gabriel S. Rothman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH   P5.12 A case study of a windstorm in the Brazilian Amazon   Mamedes L. Melo, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brasilia, Brazil; and F. Lacerda, L. R. Bernardet, and R. B. da Silveira   P5.13 A method concept of weather forecasting along an aircraft route based on numerical model data   Slawomir A. Pietrek, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and K. Kroszczynski   P5.14 Instability and forcing in 4 cases of convective snow from the 1999–2000 winter season   Christopher E. Halcomb, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market   P5.15 Remote Weather Assessment Using Fused Data and Knowledge Discovery from Databases   Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, A. P. Kuciauskas, W. T. Thompson, and K. L. Richardson   P5.16 Satellite Applications for Tropical Wave/Tropical Cyclone Tracking   Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden and J. R. Rhome   P5.17 Synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the 9 August 2000 Appalachian-crossing derechos (formerly poster P3.6)   Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and S. Nogueira and N. Belk
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Thursday Poster Session 6 Poster Session - Ensembles—with Coffee Break
Organizer: John Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ Canada
P6.1 Paper P6.1 has been moved to the Mesoscale Processes Program, Session 9, Paper number 9.6a     P6.2 Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder   P6.3 Kalman filter error statistics and the global meteorological observing network   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop   P6.4 A simplified model for predicting forecast error variances   Yong Li, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. E. Cohn, L. P. Riishojgaard, J. Guo, and Z. Toth   P6.5 A bayesian technique for estimating covariance parameters in large scale statistical objective analysis   David F. Parrish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser   P6.6 The exact error covariances of an autonomous optimal data assimilation cycle: Implications for ensembles and the global observing network   Craig H. Bishop, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA   P6.7 Wavelet Approximation in the Computation of Error Covariance Evolution   Andrew V. Tangborn, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD   P6.8 A Real-Time Ensemble for the Prediction of Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin   Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and C. H. Bishop   P6.9 Ensemble methods applied to hurricane track forecasting   Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and H. Liu P6.10 Probabilistic forecasts and optimal perturbation ensembles   Xuguang Wang, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop   P6.11 Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors   Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and R. E. Morss   P6.12 Unified treatment of measurement bias and correlation in variational analysis with consideration of the preconditioning problem   R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and J. C. Derber P6.13 A Comparison of Different Ensemble Generation Techniques   Brian J. Etherton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop   P6.14 Can we predict the reduction in forecast error variance produced by targeted observations?   Sharanya J. Majumdar, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop, I. Szunyogh, and Z. Toth   P6.15 Ensemble forecasts using perturbed physics in a multidimensional parameter space   Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. J. Anderson and W. A. Gallus P6.16 Using parallel data assimilation cycles to estimate analysis uncertainity   Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill P6.17 Dynamic Ensemble MOS   Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Inc., Billerica, MA; and W. Myers and G. Young   P6.18 MM5 adjoint development using TAMC: Experiences with an automatic code generator   Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and G. D. Modica, M. Cerniglia, F. H. Ruggiero, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou   P6.19 The role of the momentum divergence equation ellipticity in the numerical model solutions   Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and K. Kroszczynski
	4:00 PM-5:20 PM, Thursday Session 6 Ensembles
4:00 PM 6.6 Numerical Prediction of Typhoon Tracks and Intensity using a Multimodel Superensemble   T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti, M. Fiorino, and M. Nagata 4:20 PM 6.7 Implementation of an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter in a Global NWP Model   Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Zhang 4:40 PM 6.8 Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations   Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill 6.9 Statistics of Background Error Derived from an Ensemble of Analyses   Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 5:00 PM 6.10 Applications of spatially recursive digital filters to the synthesis of inhomogeneous and anisotropic covariance operators in a statistical objective analysis   R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and W. S. Wu and D. F. Parrish
	7:30 PM, Thursday Panel Discussion 3 Joint Panel and Group Discussion: How can we better estimate and communicate uncertainty in mesoscale forecasts? (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)
Panelists: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA Moderator: John Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ Canada
	9:00 PM, Thursday Conference Ends

Browse the complete program of The 18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes