* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Monday, 25 June 2007
	8:45 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Summit AB Joint Session 1 Introduction & Modeling Overview
Chairs: John Horel, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
8:45 AM J1.1 Opening remarks   9:00 AM J1.2 Views on the Current and future Forecast Enterprise: An NCEP Perspective   Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 9:30 AM J1.3 Next-generation numerical weather prediction in the U. S. Navy   Simon W. Chang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and V. C. Addison 9:45 AM J1.4 An overview of NRL's atmospheric global modeling and research   C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. K. Flatau, J. Hansen, T. F. Hogan, Y. J. Kim, R. Langland, J. G. McLay, M. S. Peng, and J. A. Ridout 10:00 AM J1.5 Improvement of the precipitation processes in the JMA high-resolution global NWP model and Its impact study for tropical cyclone cases   Takuya Komori, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tokyo, Japan
	10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday, Summit C Coffee Break
	10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Summit AB Joint Session 2 High-Impact Weather
Chair: John Horel, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
10:45 AM J2.1 Defining High-Impact Weather—or Not?   Ron McPherson, AMS, Boston, MA 11:15 AM J2.2 Evidence of Culture Change in Meteorology—Actions of Weather and Society * Integrated Studies Participants   Eve Gruntfest, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 11:30 AM J2.3 Legal Implications of Forecasting   Marsha L. Baum, University of New Mexico School of Law, Albuquerque, NM 11:45 AM J2.4 The Greensburg, KS Tornado   Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS, SPC, Norman, OK
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Summit AB Joint Session 3 Modeling Systems
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
1:30 PM J3.1 An ESMF framework for NCEP operational models   Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang, W. Y. Yang, and M. Iredell 1:45 PM J3.2 An ESMF unified nonhydrostatic model for a broad range of spatial and temporal scales   Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. L. Black 2:00 PM J3.3 A high-resolution prediction capability using NRL's mesoscale modeling system   James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, R. Hodur, T. Holt, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. Nachamkin, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang 2:15 PM J3.4 From the Radar-enhanced RUC to the WRF-based Rapid Refresh   Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. M. Brown, T. G. Smirnova, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, G. A. Grell, S. Peckham, T. W. Schlatter, T. L. Smith, and G. S. Manikin 2:30 PM J3.5 Upgrade of the operational JMA mesoscale model and implementation of improved Mellor-Yamada Level 3 scheme   Tabito Hara, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tokyo, Japan 2:45 PM J3.6 Towards an operational 1km limited area model by using variable resolution   Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday, Summit C Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-4:30 PM, Monday, Summit AB Joint Session 4 Modeling Systems II
Chair: Jennifer Alexander, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
3:30 PM J4.1 NWP Goes to War…   David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and A. Deng, G. K. Hunter, A. M. Gibbs, J. R. Zielonka, K. Tinklepaugh, and J. Dobek 3:45 PM J4.2 12 Years of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System from 1995 to 2006   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, J. McQueen, Z. Toth, S. Tracton, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, E. Rogers, H. Juang, H. Y. Chuang, D. Stensrud, S. J. Weiss, R. H. Grumm, P. Manousos, and S. Silberberg 4:00 PM J4.3 Improved Probabilistic Predictions through Bayesian Post-Processing and Bias Correcton   Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. A. Baars, A. E. Raftery, and T. Gneiting 4:15 PM J4.4 DART: A community tool for ensemble data assimilation research and development   Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Collins, T. Hoar, H. Liu, and K. Raeder
	4:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday, Summit C Poster Viewing with Reception
	4:35 PM-6:30 PM, Monday, Summit C Poster Session 1 Monday Poster Viewing
P1.1 On the col structure associated with winter traveling disturbances across the Caribbean and its effect over northern South America   Gerardo de J. Montoya Gaviria, National University of Colombia, Bogota, Colombia P1.2 Preliminary study on the causes and decay of severe drought in a century in the Sichuan Basin, China   Fujun Huang Sr., NOAA/AL, Chengdu, Sichuan, China   P1.3 Assessing the Regional Model ETA-15km and Wind Anomalies to Forecast Central Andes Winter Snowstorms   Maximiliano Viale, Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA - CONICET), 5500 Mendoza, Mendoza, Argentina; and F. A. Norte   P1.4 VISITView as a briefing tool for high impact weather events   Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. Oliver, M. Fox, J. T. Bradshaw, and P. Kirkwood   P1.5 What's New in NWP Training at COMET?   William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt and D. A. Wesley   P1.6 Defining the impact of weather   Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada   P1.7 Decision making by Austin, Texas, residents in hypothetical tornado scenarios   David M. Schultz, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland; and E. Gruntfest, C. Benight, S. D. Drobot, L. R. Barnes, and M. H. Hayden   Poster P1.8 has been moved. New Paper number 6A.1A     P1.9 Questions about applications of the ageostrophic wind and quasi-geostrophic theory in education and forecasting   Paul Nutter, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO   Poster P1.10 has been moved. New Paper number 6A.3A     P1.11 High impact gridded weather forecasts   Steven A. Amburn, NWS, Tulsa, OK; and S. F. Piltz, J. B. McGavock, and J. M. Frederick   P1.12 Employing weather derivatives to assess the economic value of high-impact weather forecasts out to ten days - indicating a commercial application   Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia   P1.13 Weather and Radar Processor (WARP) Optimal Mosaic Evaluation   Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Dimensions International, Linwood, NJ; and M. Printy   P1.14 Forecast Issues Related to the Unprecedented Severe and High Wind Event of December 1, 2006   Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm   P1.15 A nocturnal cold season mountain wave heavy precipitation event over the lee slopes of the Wind River Mountains of Wyoming   Charles M. Baker, NOAA/NWSFO, Riverton, WY; and B. E. McDonald   P1.16 The Overton Marina Move – A Benign Weather High Impact Event   Kim Runk, NOAA/NWSFO, Las Vegas, NV   P1.17 Investigating specific event types in the western U.S utilizing standardized anomalies   Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Grumm   P1.18 Analysis of IC and CG Lightning with Winter Precipitation   Brian Pettegrew, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, R. L. Holle, and N. W. S. Demetriades   P1.19 New Years Eve wind event 2005: Radar analysis and damage assessment of relationship to slantwise convective circulations embedded along bent-back front   mel K. Nordquist, NOAA/NSSL, Eureka, CA; and B. Lutz, M. Burger, E. Lau, and C. Ciliberti (Presenter)   P1.20 An analysis of synoptic patterns associated with strong north Texas cold fronts during the 2005-06 cold season   Stacie Hanes, DOC/NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and G. R. Patrick   P1.21 Analyzing low-level jets in their large-scale environment: Issues involving the combination of operational and research observations during IHOP   Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena   P1.22 The 24 February 2007 North Texas dust storm: an impact weather event   Bernard N. Meisner, NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX; and J. A. Schultz   P1.23 Interactions between regional-scale circulations and local wind systems in the Owens Valley   Gregory West, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Adamson, J. Andrews, S. Daines, N. Hosenfeld, R. Jackson, J. James, L. Jones, C. Kahler, L. Kowal, J. Krebs, S. Noble, M. Olson, N. Opperman, D. Otto, P. Staten, K. Tietze, D. Van Cleave, K. Van Peursem, L. Verzella, C. Wall, K. Westerman, Y. Zhao, S. Zhong, C. D. Whiteman, and W. J. Steenburgh   P1.24 Great Basin frontogenesis   Gregory West, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and J. C. Shafer   P1.25 Frontal interaction with the Sierra Nevada as a precursor to intense frontogenesis over the Great Basin   Colby Neuman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West   P1.26 Microburst Events in a Mountain Desert Environment   Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Krippner and K. Sutkevich   P1.27 Forecasting Minimum Temperatures for Dugway Proving Ground   Carissa L. Klemmer, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT   P1.28 Identification of side-door/back-door cold fronts for fire weather forecasting applications   Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and R. P. Shadbolt and D. Keyser   Poster P1.29 has been moved. New Paper number 3A.7A     P1.29A Assessing the predictability of band formation and evolution during three recent northeast U.S. snowstorms   David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and B. A. Colle   P1.30 Mesoscale Elements of the December 14, 2006 West Palm Beach Flash Flood   Gordon Strassberg, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and P. Santos   P1.31 Heat waves in a hot place: Examination of intense heat episodes in the Phoenix Arizona metropolitan area during July 2003-2005-2006   G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ   P1.32 The Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System. On-going system improvements and challenges   Manuel De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser, S. Y. Park, G. S. Manikin, D. F. Parrish, and G. DiMego   P1.33 Mesonet wind quality monitoring allowing assimilation in the RUC and other NCEP models   Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. R. Sahm, and T. L. Smith   P1.34 The NWS Southern Region grid preparation policy: making a difference   G. Clay Anderson, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and J. W. Zeitler   P1.35 Applications of the NWS' Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)   Lee Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Colman, G. DiMego, G. E. Mann, and J. D. Horel   P1.36 Evaluation of the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) over complex terrain   Chad Kahler, NOAA/NWS, Western Region, Scientific Services Division, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Myrick   P1.37 Sensitivity of Surface Analyses to Temporal Observational Constraints   Brian Olsen, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Horel   P1.38 Evaluation of Real-Time High-Resolution Forecasts for Monterey Bay   Hao Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and Q. Jiang   P1.39 Monitoring High Impact Weather Events Using MesoWest   John D. Horel, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Olsen, J. Pechmann, and C. Galli   P1.40 Winter storm simulations using a local mesoscale model   Andrew R. Kimball, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. A. Billet   P1.41 Improvement of LAPS wind analysis by including background error statistics   Ok-Yeon Kim, Pukyung National University, Busan, Korea; and C. Lu, S. Albers, J. A. McGinley, and J. H. Oh   P1.42 The Impact of High-Resolution Surface Observations on Convective Storm Analysis with Ensemble Kalman Filter   Jili Dong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and K. Droegemeier   P1.43 Impact of abridged atmospheric data in mesoscale modeling   Christopher L. Franks, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and W. J. Capehart and M. R. Hjelmfelt   P1.44 The Issue of Data Density and Frequency with EnKF Radar Data Assimilation in a Compressible Nonhydrostatic NWP Model   Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; and M. Xue   P1.45 Demonstration of Navy's operational dust storm forecasting for Southwest Asia   Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal and A. L. Walker   P1.46 The value of Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) for observing high impact weather: Preliminary results from CASA   J. A. Brotzge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Hondl   P1.47 Sensitivity of short range numerical weather prediction to data availability during NAME   John R. Wetenkamp Jr., South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and W. J. Capehart and M. R. Hjelmfelt   P1.48 Asynoptic high resolution upper-air data for high impact weather events   Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and P. G. Witsaman, S. Foster, W. C. Hoffmann, and B. K. Fritz
Tuesday, 26 June 2007
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday, Summit A Session 1A Synoptic Systems
Chair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
8:00 AM 1A.1 Dynamical aspects of Euro-Atlantic Blockings during the winter 2005/06   Mischa Croci-Maspoli, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and H. C. Davies 8:15 AM 1A.2 Anticyclones cause high-impact weather too: A global anticyclone climatology and case studies   Matthew L. Doody, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser 8:30 AM 1A.3 Midlatitude-tropical intrusions and extrusions: territory invasion   Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart 8:45 AM 1A.4 Utilizing Standardized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic Scale Weather Events in the Western U.S   Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Grand Rapids, MI; and R. H. Grumm 9:00 AM 1A.5 Meteorological characteristics and overland impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations   Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, G. Wick, J. D. Lundquist, and M. D. Dettinger 9:15 AM 1A.6 Climatology of Strong Cold Fronts over the Western United States   W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Shafer 9:30 AM 1A.7 Major windstorms of the Pacific Northwest interior   Bri Dotson, University of Washingon, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass 9:45 AM 1A.8 The “Perfect Storms” of 1991: An example of linking high-impact weather and climate on intraseasonal time scale   Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday, Summit B Session 1B Radar Data Assimilation
Chair: Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
8:00 AM 1B.1 High resolution assimilation of CASA X-band and NEXRAD radar data for thunderstorm forecasting   Keith A. Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Thomas, J. Brotzge, Y. Wang, D. Weber, and M. Xue 8:15 AM 1B.2 Improving very short range prediction of high-impact weather using radar observations   Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, California; and J. Cook, Y. Jin, M. Frost, Q. Xu, P. R. Harasti, and S. Potts 8:30 AM 1B.3 Estimating radar wind observation error and NCEP WRF background wind error covariances from radar radial-velocity innovations   Qin Xu, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and K. Nai, L. Wei, H. Lu, P. Zhang, S. Liu, and D. Parrish 8:45 AM 1B.4 Analysis and Prediction of 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Thunderstorm and Embedded Tornado using ARPS with Assimilation of WSR-88D Radar Data   Ming Hu, CAPS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 9:00 AM 1B.5 The impact of radar data assimilation on a squall line in Mississippi   Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, GeoResources Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Li, E. Lim, Q. Xiao, C. M. Hill, and J. Sun 9:15 AM 1B.6 A multi-case study of ensemble-based assimilation of radar observations into cloud-resolving WRF using DART   Altug Aksoy, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and D. C. Dowell 9:30 AM 1B.7 Radar reflectivity-based initialization of precipitation systems using a diabatic digital filter within the Rapid Update Cycle   Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin 9:45 AM 1B.8 Assimilation of simulated polarimetric radar data using ensemble Kalman filter: Observation operators and data impact   Youngsun Jung, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, G. Zhang, and J. M. Straka
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday, Summit C Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Summit A Session 2A Winter Weather
Chair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY
10:30 AM 2A.1 Predictability of windstorms and gravity waves forced by complex terrain: Perspectives from T-REX   James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, Q. Jiang, and C. A. Reynolds 10:45 AM 2A.2 Experimental forecasts of mountain waves for the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX)   Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, GSD7 Boulder, CO; and B. Jamison, S. Koch, J. Brown, and J. Dudhia 11:00 AM 2A.3 Model initial condition sensitivity of downslope wind storms   P. Alexander Reinecke, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Durran 11:15 AM 2A.4 Forecast challenges and impacts of severe downslope wind events   Stanley Czyzyk, NOAA/NWSFO, Las Vegas, NV; and C. Bell 11:30 AM 2A.5 Initial analysis of model guidance for the Colorado Front Range barrage of snowstorms Nov. 2006-Feb. 2007   Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Pielke, S. D. Jascourt, W. Bua, D. Barjenbruch, E. Szoke, and G. Poulos 11:45 AM 2A.6 Evaluation of the NCEP WRF NMM and ARW models for some recent high-impact weather events   Ed Szoke, NOAA/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Koch, D. Barjenbruch, and D. A. Wesley
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Summit B Session 2B Data Assimilation
Chair: Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM An efficient dual-resolution ensemble data assimilation approach and tests with Doppler Radar data   Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 10:45 AM 2B.1 An Overview of the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation (NAVDAS) and NAVDAS-AR (Accelerated Representer) Systems   Nancy L. Baker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Goerss, K. Sashegyi, P. Pauley, R. Langland, L. Xu, C. Blankenship, B. Campbell, B. Ruston, T. Rosmond, and R. L. Pauley 11:00 AM 2B.2 PBL state estimation with surface observations, a column model, and an ensemble filter   Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Rostkier-Edelstein 11:15 AM 2B.3 The impact of including a weak dynamical constraint in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System   Ronald Errico, NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang, D. Kleist, D. Parish, J. Guo, and R. Todling 11:30 AM 2B.4 Toward a weak constraint 4D-Var system: application of the Burgers equation   Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Rosmond, J. Goerss, and B. Chua 11:45 AM 2B.5 A Fast Radiative Transfer Model and its Application in MM5 4Dvar   Gang Ma Sr., National Satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, Beijing, China 12:00 PM 2B.6 Latest development of 3DVAR system for ARPS and its application to a tornadic supercell storm   Guoqing Ge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; and J. Gao
	12:00 PM-2:00 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	2:00 PM-3:45 PM, Tuesday, Summit A Session 3A Winter Weather II
Chair: W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
2:00 PM 3A.1 Evaluation of high-resolution WRF ARW model simulations of atmospheric river events during HMT-2006   Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, P. J. Neiman, and P. Schultz 2:15 PM 3A.2 A high-resolution observational and modeling comparison of mesoscale band life cycle during three recent northeast U.S. snowstorms   David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and B. A. Colle and S. E. Yuter 2:30 PM 3A.3 The unappreciated threat from inertial instability   David M. Schultz, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland; and R. S. Schumacher and J. A. Knox 2:45 PM 3A.4 West Coast winter cyclogenesis   Dr. Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 3:00 PM 3A.5 Regional scale ensemble forecast of the Lake Effect snow event of February 2007   Justin Marc Arnott, NOAA/NWS, Johnson City, NY; and M. Evans and R. Grumm 3:15 PM 3A.6 Lake Effect Snow Storm Over Buffalo, NY October 12-13, 2006   Robert S. Hamilton, NOAA/NWSFO, Cheektowaga, NY; and D. Zaff and T. Niziol 3:30 PM Paper 3A.7 has been moved. New Poster Number P1.29A   3:45 PM 3A.7A Northern New England coastal flooding   John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS, Gray, Maine
	2:00 PM-3:45 PM, Tuesday, Summit B Session 3B Mesoscale and Storm-Scale NWP
Chair: David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA
2:00 PM 3B.1 CAPS Realtime Storm-scale Ensemble and High-resolution Forecasts as Part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment   Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du 2:15 PM 3B.2 Preliminary Analysis on the Real-Time Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts Produced as a Part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment   Fanyou Kong, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, D. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du 2:30 PM 3B.3 Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data: Analyses and short-term forecasts of a developing MCS   Michael C. Coniglio, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. C. Dowell and L. J. Wicker 2:45 PM 3B.4 Analysis of major orographic precipitation events over the Pacific Northwest using field data, mesoscale models, and an operational WSR-88D radar   Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University / SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and Y. Lin, S. E. Yuter, and J. Payne 3:00 PM 3B.5 Some practical considerations for the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP: How much resolution is enough?   John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, M. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. Weber, and C. S. Schwartz 3:15 PM 3B.6 Investigation of numerical error sources in coupled model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion   Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and I. Sykes 3:30 PM 3B.7 An Overview of the NOAA National Centers for Environmnental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological model products to support atmospheric transport and dispersion studies   Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Jovic, H. Y. Chuang, B. Zhou, J. Du, M. Tsidulko, and G. Dimego
	3:45 PM-4:15 PM, Tuesday, Summit C Coffee Break
	4:15 PM-6:00 PM, Tuesday, Summit A Session 4A Analysis Systems
Chair: Keith Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
4:15 PM 4A.1 Rapid-Refresh Core Test: aspects of WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW forecast performance relevant to the Rapid-Refresh application   John M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, L. B. Nance, R. S. Collander, and C. W. Harrop 4:30 PM 4A.2 Hourly data assimilation with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation for the Rapid Refresh   Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, T. W. Schlatter, S. G. Benjamin, and M. Hu 4:45 PM 4A.3 TAMDAR and its impact on Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) forecasts   William R. Moninger, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, B. D. Jamison, T. W. Schlatter, T. L. Smith, and E. J. Szoke 5:00 PM 4A.4 Impact of TAMDAR data on RUC short-range forecasts   Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, B. D. Jamison, T. L. Smith, S. G. Benjamin, W. R. Moninger, T. W. Schlatter, and B. Schwartz 5:15 PM 4A.5 The status of the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System at NCEP   Manuel S.F.V. De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin, D. F. Parrish, R. J. Purser, W. S. Wu, G. DiMego, J. C. Derber, S. Benjamin, J. D. Horel, L. Anderson, and B. Colman 5:30 PM 4A.6 The RTMA background - Hourly downscaling of RUC data to 5-km detail   Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, G. S. Manikin, and G. Mann 4A.7 Downscaled NAM Data for Forecasting Applications   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
	4:15 PM-6:15 PM, Tuesday, Summit B Session 4B Ensemble Kalman Filter: Tutorial
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:15 PM 4B.1 An Introduction to Ensemble Kalman Filtering   Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Wednesday, 27 June 2007
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Summit A Session 5A High Impact Weather
Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 5A.1 A climatological Analysis of the Link between breaking synoptic-scale Rossby Waves and heavy Precipitation Events in the Alps   Olivia Martius, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Schwierz and H. C. Davies 8:15 AM 5A.2 Patterns of Heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Holmes 8:30 AM 5A.3 The use of ensembles and anomalies to anticipate extreme flood events in the northeastern United States   Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and R. H. Grumm, J. W. Cannon, and W. Drag 8:45 AM 5A.4 Composite means and anomalies of meteorological parameters for summertime flash flooding in the National Weather Service Eastern Region   Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and L. R. Robertson 9:00 AM 5A.5 Heavy rainfall events preceding the arrival of tropical cyclones   Matthew R. Cote, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. L. Jurewicz 9:15 AM 5A.6 A new climatology of 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year microburst winds   James C. Walter, Salt River Project, Phoenix, AZ 9:30 AM 5A.7 Mesoscale disturbances on the periphery of closed anticyclones: A link between mesoscale processes and intraseasonal climate variability   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 9:45 AM 5A.8 The record-breaking central California heat wave of July 2006   Warren Blier, NOAA/NWS, Monterey, CA
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Summit B Session 5B WRF: System development
Chair: Joe Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 5B.1 Advances in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model   Joseph B. Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO 8:30 AM 5B.2 4-Dimensional Variational (4D-Var) data assimilation for the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) model   Xiang-Yu Huang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Q. Xiao, X. Zhang, W. Huang, D. M. Barker, J. Michalakes, J. Bray, Z. Ma, T. Henderson, J. Dudhia, X. Zhang, D. J. Won, Y. R. Guo, H. C. Lin, and Y. H. Kuo 8:45 AM 5B.3 Hybrid variational/ensemble data assimilation for WRF   Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Y. Huang, X. Wang, C. Snyder, and A. C. Lorenc 9:00 AM 5B.4 Weather Research and Forecasting Core Tests   Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, B. Weatherhead, G. Noonan, T. Fowler, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, J. Brown, and A. Loughe 9:15 AM 5B.5 Intercomparison of simulations using 4 WRF microphysical schemes with dual-Polarization data for a German squall line   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and M. Pfeifer 9:30 AM 5B.6 The NCEP's WRF NMM and hazardous weather prediction   Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, G. Manikin, E. Rogers, H. Y. Chuang, and G. DiMego 9:45 AM 5B.7 High resolution accurate WRF forecasts for the Middle East   Barry H. Lynn, Columbia Univ. New York, NY and The Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday, Summit C Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Summit A Session 6A Operational Forecasting
Chair: Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT
6A.1 National Weather Service (NWS) – services evolution   Kenneth Graham, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Lenihan, J. P. Tuell, and L. Dunn 10:30 AM 6A.1A Road pavement temperatures and their impact on travel during snow storms   Donald M. Moore, NOAA/NWS, Billings, MT; and R. J. Miller 10:45 AM 6A.3A Local high impact weather events and their relationship to forecast performance   Paul A. Hirschberg, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Hilderbrand, I. Leveson, and C. Woods 11:00 AM 6A.4 The National Weather Service Unified Surface Analysis   Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Clark, D. Roth, and T. Birchard 6A.2 The New National Weather Service concept of operations   Jason P. Tuell, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Dunn and K. Graham 6A.3 Generating and communicating uncertainty information for high impact weather, water, and climate forecasts   Paul A. Hirschberg, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Anderson, J. Sokich, Z. Toth, and A. Bleistein 11:15 AM 6A.5 Project Phoenix - Optimizing the machine-person mix in high-impact weather forecasting   Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and W. Purcell and D. Ball 11:30 AM 6A.6 GFS-based MOS precipitation forecast guidance for island sites in the tropical western Pacific Ocean   James C. Su, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Summit B Session 6B Short Range Ensemble Forecasting
Chair: Michael Sestak, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
6B.1 Short-range ensemble forecasts of high-impact weather from MOGREPS   Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and N. Bowler, S. John, K. Robertson, T. P. Legg, and A. Arribas 10:30 AM 6B.1A Time-expanded sampling for ensemble-based filter with covariance localization: assimilation experiments with a shallow-water equation model   Qin Xu, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and L. Wei, H. Lu, and Q. Zhao 10:45 AM 6B.2 Postprocessing of precipitation forecasts for new configured NCEP short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system   Huiling Yuan, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and NRC, Boulder, CO; and J. Du, J. A. McGinley, P. Schultz, B. Zhou, C. Lu, Z. Toth, and G. DiMego 11:00 AM 6B.3 Verification of extratropical cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm   Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University / SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Charles 11:15 AM 6B.4 The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center   Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, and M. Xue 11:30 AM 6B.5 Forecast skill and spread in small convection-resolving and large non-convection-resolving WRF model ensembles   Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus
	12:00 PM-2:00 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	2:00 PM-4:15 PM, Wednesday, Summit A Session 7A Convective Systems
Chair: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY
2:00 PM 7A.1 Forecasting thunderstorm characterisitics that have a high impact on air traffic flow   James Pinto, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, M. Dixon, C. Phillips, N. Oien, R. Rasmussen, and M. Weisman 2:15 PM 7A.2 An analysis of the Northern Gulf of Mexico sea/land breeze and associated convective precipitation   Christopher M. Hill, GeoResources Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick, J. Corbin, Y. Lau, S. Bhate, and P. G. Dixon 2:30 PM 7A.3 Impact of Low-Altitude Radar Data on Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction   Ashton Robinson Cook, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Drogemeier and F. Kong 2:45 PM 7A.4 Analysis and prediction of Sumatra squall lines   Lan Yi, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore; and T. Y. Koh 3:00 PM 7A.5 The sensitivity of squall line motion to environmental changes in 3D idealized WRF forecasts   Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 3:15 PM 7A.6 Warm-season lake-/sea-breeze severe weather in the Northeast   Patrick Wilson, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and T. Wasula 3:30 PM 7A.7 Synoptic and Mesoscale Regulation of Dryline Intensity and Associated Convection   David M. Schultz, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland; and C. C. Weiss 3:45 PM 7A.8 Tornadoes from elevated convection   Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. E. Walker 4:00 PM 7A.9 Strong and violent tornado outbreaks: Comparisons in thermodynamic and wind parameters between large hail and non large hail events   Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and R. H. Johns
	2:00 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Summit B Session 7B Ensemble Modeling
Chair: Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
2:00 PM 7B.1 Diagnosis and Optimization of Ensemble Forecasts   Tomislava Vukicevic, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov and J. A. McGinley 2:15 PM 7B.2 A Simple Method for Calibrating Ensemble Variability to Represent Meteorological Model Uncertainty   Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer and S. E. Haupt 2:30 PM 7B.3 The ensemble forecast system at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and maritime high wind probability forecasts   Michael Sestak, FNMOC, Monterey, CA 2:45 PM 7B.4 ECO-RAP, Part 1: A new adaptive error covariance localization tool for 4-dimensional ensemble data assimilation   Daniel Hodyss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop 3:00 PM 7B.5 ECO-RAP, Part 2: Inexpensive huge ensembles   Craig H. Bishop, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. F. Campbell, D. Hodyss, and J. G. McLay 3:15 PM 7B.6 Probabilistic QPF using a multi-physics WRF ensemble   Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and L. Brieger 3:30 PM 7B.7 A WRF and MM5 Mesoscale Ensemble Analysis and Prediction System (MEAPS) developed for ATEC operational applications   Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hacker, M. Xu, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin 3:45 PM 7B.8 Supplemental NWP for the Hydrometeorological Testbed Project   Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
	4:30 PM-6:30 PM, Wednesday, Summit C Poster Session 2 Wednesday Poster Viewing
P2.1 The U.S. Navy's on-demand, coupled, mesoscale data assimilation and prediction system   John Cook, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Frost, G. Love, L. Phegley, Q. Zhao, D. A. Geiszler, J. Kent, S. Potts, D. Martinez, T. J. Neu, D. Dismachek, and L. N. McDermid   P2.2 An Ensemble-Based 4DVar Approach Based on SVD Technique   C.J. Qiu, Lanzhou Universigy, 730000 Lanzhou, Gansu, China; and A. M. Shao, Q. Xu, and L. Wei   Poster P2.3 has been moved. New paper number 6B.1A     P2.4 Impacts of digital filter initialization on the WRF in the Korea Meteorological Administration   Ju-Won Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and X. Y. Huang, H. S. Lee, and S. W. Joo   P2.5 Development and Testing of a New Cloud Analysis Package using Radar, Satellite, and Surface Cloud Observations within GSI for Initializing Rapid Refresh   Ming Hu, CAPS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. S. Weygandt, M. Xue, and S. G. Benjamin   P2.6 Recovery of mesoscale covariance using time-phased ensembles   Ok-Yeon Kim, Pukyung National University, Busan, Korea; and C. Lu, J. A. McGinley, and J. H. Oh   P2.7 The impact of Doppler radar data on rainfall forecast: a case study of a convective rainband event in Mississippi Delta using WRF 3D-Var   Eunha Lim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Q. Xiao, J. Sun, P. J. Fitzpatrick, Y. Li, and J. L. Dyer   P2.8 An evaluation of 3DVAR, nudging-based FDDA and a hybrid scheme for summer convection forecasts   Wei Yu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu and T. Warner   P2.9 Evaluation of an Advanced Radiative Transfer Model in US Navy's Regional Numerical Weather Prediction System   Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal, J. E. Nachamkin, and S. Wang   P2.10 Implementation of bias correction scheme on KMA's operational global ensemble prediction system   Dong-Joon Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and S. O. Moon, E. H. Jeon, J. H. Son, and H. S. Lee   Poster P2.11 has been moved. New paper number 13B.5A     P2.12 Climatology of elevated thunderstorms in the western United States   Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT   P2.13 Comparing snowstorms with and without lightning via the growth rate parameter   Christopher J. Melick, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. Pettegrew, L. L. Smith, A. E. Becker, P. Market, and A. R. Lupo   P2.14 Scale-dependent precipitation forecast error in the GFS   Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, S. E. Koch, E. Tollerud, J. A. McGinley, and P. Schultz   P2.16 Derecho and MCS formation and interactions during BAMEX   Nicholas D. Metz, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart P2.15 The contribution of downward momentum transport to MCS motion   Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann   P2.17 The sensitivity of simulated convective morphologies to cloud microphysical scheme parameters   Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus   P2.18 A preliminary analysis of severe mesoscale convective systems (MCS) crossing the Appalachians   Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and J. L. Guyer, J. L. Peters, and J. Jackson   P2.19 Observations of inflow feeder clouds and their relation to severe thunderstorms   Rebecca J. Mazur, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Weaver and T. H. Vonder Haar   P2.20 An experiment to evaluate the use of quantitative precipitation forecasts from numerical guidance by operational forecasters   Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and D. Nietfeld, R. A. Wolf, and P. N. Schumacher   Poster P2.21 has been moved. New Paper Number 9A.3A     P2.22 Analysis of precipitation forecasts from the NCEP global forecast system   Huiling Yuan, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and NRC, Boulder, CO; and C. Lu, E. I. Tollerud, J. A. McGinley, and P. Schultz   P2.23 Improving anticipation of the influence of upstream convection on QPF   Christian M. Cassell, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann and K. Mahoney   P2.24 Sensitivities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in forecasting low-level jet events and the impact on forecasting severe weather   Brandon A. Storm, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. Dudhia and S. Basu   P2.25 Contributions of mixed physics and perturbed lateral boundary conditions to the skill and spread of precipitation forecasts from a WRF ensemble   Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus and T. C. Chen   P2.26 Coherence of rainfall propagation as simulated in the WRF model using two different convective schemes   Andrew J. Ansorge, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and J. Correia and A. J. Clark   P2.27 Advanced Research WRF (ARW) modeled low-level jet climatology compared to observed climatologies   Brandon A. Storm, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and S. Basu and J. Dudhia   P2.28 Investigation of the Fine Scale Modeling Abilities of the WRF: Wind and Temperature Fields over Oklahoma City   Ripley C. McCoy, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. A. Gibbs   P2.29 The WRF Model's new explicit numerical diffusion and its effects on transport and dispersion in the planetary boundary layer   Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan, J. H. Copeland, and J. P. Hacker   P2.30 Gravity wave phase discrepancies in WRF   Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD   Poster P2.31 has been moved. New Paper Number is 10B.4A     P2.32 An intercomparison of MODIS-derived and WRF-simulated cloud data for an intense extratropical cyclone   Jason A. Otkin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Greenwald   P2.33 Time-frequency localization and long- and short-term memories in the GFS precipitation forecast errors   Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, S. E. Koch, E. I. Tollerud, J. A. McGinley, and P. Schultz   P2.34 Hail size forecast verification across Utah using a combination of radar reflectivity heights and derived products   Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO   Poster P2.35 has been moved. New Paper Number is 10B.5A     P2.36 Using BOI_Verify to Identify Model Preferences in Large Temperature Change Events   Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID   P2.37 Comparison of Aura MLS water vapor measurements with GFS and NAM analyses in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere   LeVan Thien, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus and M. A. Olsen   P2.38 The performance of weather forecasts for various forecast providers   Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada   P2.39 Initial verification of the NOAA-UNH Joint Center for Ocean Observing Technology real-time MM5/WRF forecasts   John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and T. S. Zaccheo, N. Vinogradova, D. Vandemark, J. W. Cannon, and D. P. St. Jean   P2.40 Why numerical model fails to predict tropical cyclone intensification?   Xuanli Li, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu   P2.41 An Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Thunderstorm Location: A Search for More Relevant Land Surface Input Data   Waylon G. Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot   P2.42 A blended total water vapor product for the analysis and forecast of weather hazards   Sheldon J. Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Q. Kidder and J. Forsythe   P2.43 GOES Winter Precipitation efficiency algorithm   Robert M. Rabin, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Hanna   P2.44 The GOES-R ABI (Advanced Basline Imager) and continuation of GOES-N class sounder products   Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI; and J. J. Gurka, J. Li, M. D. Goldberg, and K. J. Schrab   P2.45 Baseline instruments for the GOES-R series   Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI; and J. J. Gurka, T. M. Renkevens, M. M. Gunshor, J. Li, M. D. Goldberg, and K. J. Schrab   P2.46 Using BoiVerify as a Forecast Tool to Improve WFO LKN Forecasts   Jason M. Grzywacz, NOAA/NWSFO, Elko, NV   P2.47 Convective season synoptic climatology by ENSO phase in the north central United States   Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and J. M. Boustead   P2.48 Tornado climatology and predictability by ENSO phase in the north central U.S.: A compositing study   Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and J. S. Boyne, G. R. Lussky, C. Cogil, and R. S. Ryrholm   P2.49 Ensemble predictions of the 2007 Valentines Day Winter Storm   Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and N. A. Stuart   P2.50 On the impact of NUMB weather on science, society and operational forecasting centres   Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom
Thursday, 28 June 2007
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Summit A Session 8A Remote Sensing & Clouds
Chair: Ashton Robinson Cook, NOAA/NWS SPC, Norman, OK
8:00 AM 8A.1 Assimilation of WindSat winds into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System   James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley and R. L. Pauley 8:15 AM 8A.2 Pre-operational testing and results from direct assimilation of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)   William F. Campbell, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. D. Swadley, W. Bell, N. Baker, C. Blankenship, and B. Ruston 8:30 AM 8A.3 2D Assimilation of dynamical information from satellite imagery   Alison C. Rudd, Department of Mathematics, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom; and J. R. Eyre and I. Roulstone 8:45 AM 8A.4 Observations of Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events from QuikSCAT: An updated event climatology and operational model evaluation   Michael J. Brennan, UCAR/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb and R. D. Knabb 9:00 AM 8A.5 Verification of global and mesoscale cloud forecasts over the eastern Pacific   Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Schmidt, C. Mitrescu, and S. D. Miller 9:15 AM 8A.6 Numerical Forecast of Fog -- Central Solutions   Binbin Zhou, SAIC at Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, J. Mcqueen, and G. DiMego 9:30 AM 8A.7 Simulation and Analysis of Winter Advection Fog in Beijing Area   Aimin Liang Sr., Beijing Meteorological Center of CAAC, Beijing, China; and Q. Zhang and Z. Zhang 9:45 AM 8A.8 Probabilistic Cloud Forecasting using Logistic Regression   Eric M. Kemp, Northrop Grumman IT TASC, Chantilly, Virginia; and R. Alliss
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Summit B Session 8B Ensemble Kalman Filter
Chair: Joshua Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 8B.1 Weighted ensemble filters for assimilation of discrete structures   Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO 8:15 AM 8B.2 Simultaneous estimation of inflation and observational errors in Ensemble Kalman Filter   Hong Li, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay 8:30 AM 8B.3 Comparison of different ensemble-based Kalman filters in data assimilation for strongly nonlinear dynamics   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 8:45 AM 8B.4 A Diffusive Ensemble Kalman Filter   Xiaosong Yang, COLA, Calverton, MD; and T. M. DelSole 9:00 AM 8B.5 A Hybrid Nudging-EnKF Approach to Data Assimilation   Lili Lei, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer 9:15 AM 8B.6 Comparing EnKF with 3DVar for regional-scale data assimilation   Zhiyong Meng, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and F. Zhang 9:30 AM 8B.7 A robust formulation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter   Stephen J. Thomas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker 9:45 AM 8B.8 Coupling ensemble Kalman filter with four-dimensional variational data assimilation   Meng Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. Hansen
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Thursday, Summit C Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Summit A Session 9A Forecast Verification
Chair: David Myrick, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
10:30 AM 9A.1 Using grid-based forecast verification to promote improved service in NWS/Western Region   Ken Pomeroy, NOAA/NWS, Western Region, Scientific Services Division, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Myrick and A. Sutula 10:45 AM 9A.2 The impact of precipitation dataset choices on forecast verification during the HMT   Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, C. J. Anderson, and J. A. Mcginley 9A.3 A method to verify National Weather Service gridded precipitation forecasts   Timothy Barker, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID 11:00 AM 9A.3A Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts   Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. M. Frederick 11:15 AM 9A.4 Spatial verification of high-resolution weather forecasts: beyond traditional metrics   D. A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, E. Ebert, E. Gilleland, C. Davis, and L. Holland 11:30 AM 9A.5 An evaluation of a Procrustes shape analysis verification tool using idealized cases   Steven A. Lack, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and A. Micheas 11:45 AM 9A.6 The sensitivity of object-based nowcasts to object threshold selection   Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri - Columbia, Columbia, MO; and S. A. Lack, G. L. Limpert, J. Miranda, N. Miller, A. Schnetzler, A. Koleiny, and W. T. Gilmore
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Summit B Session 9B Numerical Prediction of Convective Systems
Chair: Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA
9B.1 How predictable are severe convective storms? An initial study using EnKF data assimilation   Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, Oklahoma; and E. R. Mansell 10:30 AM 9B.2 An Assessment of Convective Forecast Failures with the WRF-ARW Model   Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang, K. Manning, C. Davis, W. C. Skamarock, and J. Klemp 11:00 AM 9B.3 Prediction of Convective Initiation and Storm Evolution on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002   Haixia Liu, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 11:15 AM 9B.4 Investigating Sources of Inaccuracy in the Analysis and Forecast of a Real Tornadic Thunderstorm Case with the EnKF Method through OSS Experiments   Mingjing Tong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 11:30 AM 9B.5 Evolution and maintenance of simulated extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems   Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson 11:45 AM 9B.6 Prediction of the timing of convective initiation along a dryline in a high-resolution model   William J. Martin, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
	12:00 PM-2:00 PM, Thursday Lunch Break
	2:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday, Summit A Session 10A Model Verification
Chair: Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
2:00 PM 10A.1 The WRF Verification Toolkit (WVT)   Lacey Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. Fowler, J. E. Halley Gotway, E. Gilleland, and D. A. Ahijevych 2:15 PM 10A.2 Application of the MODE object-based verification tool for the evaluation of model precipitation fields   Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Holland, J. E. Halley Gotway, R. Bullock, D. A. Ahijevych, E. Gilleland, and C. A. Davis 2:30 PM 10A.3 The relationship between forecast accuracy over the northeast Pacific and flow regime   Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2:45 PM 10A.4 East Coast vs. West Coast: A documentation of model forecast failures for Eta, NAM, GFS, GEM and ECMWF   Garrett Wedam, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. A. McMurdie and C. F. Mass 3:00 PM 10A.5 Sensitivity testing of a new global model with special field observations   Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. A. Byerle, A. C. Saulo, J. J. Ruiz, and J. E. Nogues-Paegle 3:15 PM 10A.6 Mesoscale Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts   C. Engel, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and E. Ebert and T. P. Lane
	2:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday, Summit B Session 10B Model Physics and Dynamics
Chair: James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA
2:00 PM 10B.1 Prediction of degree of riming within a bulk microphysical scheme   Mark T. Stoelinga, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. McCormick and J. D. Locatelli 2:15 PM 10B.2 Impact of multi-moment microphysics and model resolution on predicted cold pool and reflectivity intensity and structures in the Oklahoma tornadic supercell storms of 3 May 1999   Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, J. A. Milbrandt, M. K. Yau, and G. Zhang 2:30 PM 10B.3 Diagnosing the Intercept Parameter for Exponential Rain Drop Size Distribution Based on Video Disdrometer Observations   Guifu Zhang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, D. Daniel Dawson, and Q. Cao 10B.4 Closure Theory of Turbulent Eddy   Jianhua Zhao, Institute of Arid Meteorology ,CMA, Lanzhou, 730020,Lanzhou, Gansu province, China; and Q. Zhang and Y. Li 2:45 PM 10B.4A A new non-hydrostatic hybrid vertical coordinate atmospheric model   Michael D. Toy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall 10B.5 Progress toward a dynamically adaptive NWP model   Xudong Xiao, N.C. State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. S. McRae, H. A. Hassan, G. Y. Jumper, F. H. Ruggiero, and A. J. Jackson 3:00 PM 10B.5A Numerical accuracy of the regional spectral method used in NCEP RSM   Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang 3:15 PM 10B.6 Progress report on FIM: a flow-following finite-volume icosahedral model   Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, A. E. MacDonald, J. W. Bao, S. Benjamin, J. Middlecoeff, N. Wang, and J. M. Brown
	3:30 PM-4:00 PM, Thursday, Summit C Coffee Break
	4:00 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday, Summit A Session 11A Mesoscale Model Applications
Chair: Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:00 PM 11A.1 Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation   Leela R. Watson, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and B. Hoeth and P. F. Blottman 4:15 PM 11A.2 Evaluating WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment   Michael C. Coniglio, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, Z. I. Janjic, M. Pyle, J. Du, and D. Stensrud 4:30 PM 11A.3 The Regime Dependence of Optimally Weighted Ensemble Model Consensus Forecasts   Steven J. Greybush, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and S. E. Haupt and G. S. Young 4:45 PM 11A.4 The use of ensemble-based sensitivity for determining the impact of supplemental observations   Brian C. Ancell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass 5:00 PM 11A.5 A Comparison of High-Resolution Mesoscale Forecasts using MM5 and WRF-ARW   Aijun Deng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer and G. K. Hunter 5:15 PM 11A.6 On the Role of Atmospheric Data Assimilation and Model Resolution on Model Forecast Accuracy for the Torino Winter Olympics   David R. Stauffer, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and G. K. Hunter, A. Deng, J. R. Zielonka, K. Tinklepaugh, and P. Hayes 5:30 PM 11A.7 Evaluation of the ARW WRF Model in the Complex Terrain of Southwest Asia Part I: Objective Verification and Data Assimilation   Jianjun Xu, JCSDA/NOAA & AFWA/UCAR, Camp Springs, MD 5:45 PM 11A.8 Evaluation of cirrus cloud predictions from the MM5 and WRF/NAM weather models   Donald C. Norquist, AFRL - Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA
	4:00 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday, Summit B Session 11B Land Surface Process & Modeling
Chair: Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
4:00 PM 11B.1 Land Surface Modeling in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System   Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA 4:15 PM 11B.2 Improving meso-gamma scale NWP of winter weather with advanced ground-snow analysis and downscaling   Andrea N. Hahmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, F. Chen, and T. Warner 4:30 PM 11B.3 Sensitivity study of T2m and precipitation forecasts to soil moisture initial condition using NCEP WRF ensemble system   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Gayno, K. E. Mitchell, Z. Toth, and G. DiMego 4:45 PM 11B.4 A practical approach to sequential estimation of systematic error on near-surface mesoscale grids   Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife 5:00 PM 11B.5 Response of short term precipitation to initial soil states in WRF-ARW model   Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, A. Hahmann, F. Chen, and T. Warner 11B.6 Impact of improved landuse data set over Taiwan island in the WRF model   Jing-Shan Hong, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. H. Tai 5:15 PM 11B.7 Land Surface Modeling in the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®)   Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA 5:30 PM 11B.8 Atmosphere-cryosphere coupled model development and its application for regional climate studies   Ki-Hong Min, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and W. Y. Sun
Friday, 29 June 2007
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Summit A Session 12A Tropical Cyclones
Chair: Christopher M. Hill, GeoResources Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS
8:00 AM 12A.1 Hurricane Katrina (2005), Part I: Complex lifecycle of an intense tropical cyclone   R. J. McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah 8:15 AM 12A.2 Hurricane Katrina (2005), Part II: Evolution and hemispheric impacts   R. J. McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah 8:30 AM 12A.3 On the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Using an Operational Regional Prediction System   Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin 8:45 AM 12A.4 How do cloud microphysical processes influence the numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone's intensity change?   Xuanli Li, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu 9:00 AM 12A.5 Analyzing and predicting the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones   Elizabeth Ritchie, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. S. Tyo and O. Demirci 9:15 AM 12A.6 Interactions between recurving west Pacific tropical cyclones and the extratropical large-scale flow   Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart 9:30 AM 12A.7 Mesoscale precipitation structures accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones in the Northeast United States   Jared R. Klein, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee 9:45 AM 12A.8 A detailed examination of the evolution of coastal fronts associated with tropical storm Marco (1990)   Alan F. Srock, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Summit B Session 12B Thorpex
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM 12B.1 Some Highlights from the Progress and Plans of the World Meteorological Organization's THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Program   David Parsons, NCAR, Boulder, CO 8:30 AM 12B.2 Defining societal and economic research and applications (SERA) priorities related to developments in numerical weather prediction and THORPEX   Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Morss, J. Lazo, H. Brooks, P. Ganderton, and B. Mills 9:00 AM 12B.3 Current Status and Future Plans for NAEFS   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, L. Lefaivre, and M. Rosengaus 9:15 AM 12B.4 NCEP Global Ensemble Based Anomaly Forecast   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth 9:30 AM 12B.5 Progress in Observing Systems Simulation Experiments (a new nature run and International collaboration)   Michiko Masutani, RSIS and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. P. Riishojgaard, T. W. Schlatter, J. S. Woollen, J. Terry, Z. Toth, R. Errico, G. D. Emmitt, O. Reale, E. Andersson, A. Stoffelen, G. J. Marseille, Y. Xie, Y. Song, E. Liu, J. -. C. Jusem, S. Greco, S. A. Wood, R. Yang, G. McConaughy, D. Devenyi, N. Prive, S. S. Weygandt, H. Sun, and S. Lord 9:45 AM Paper 12B.6 has been moved. New Poster Number P2.50
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Friday, Summit C Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Summit A Session 13A Tropical Cyclones II
Chair: Peter Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA
10:30 AM 13A.1 Ensemble-based data assimilation and prediction for Hurricanes: Impacts of assimilating Doppler radar observations   Fuqing Zhang, College Station, TX; and Y. Weng, Z. Meng, and Y. Chen 10:45 AM 13A.2 A Tropical Cyclone Case Study using the Model Constrained 3D-Var Data Assimilation Scheme   Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and K. Zhao and D. Wang 11:00 AM 13A.3 Impact of Surface Roughness Representation on Hurricane Intensity Forecasts   Yi Jin, NRL, monterey, CA; and S. Chen, S. Wang, J. Doyle, C. S. Liou, J. M. Schmidt, and R. Hodur 11:15 AM 13A.4 A numerical study of the wind field expansion with Hurricane Katrina during a period of rapid intensification   Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, GeoResources Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. M. Hill, Y. Li, S. Bhate, Y. Lau, and Q. Xiao 11:30 AM 13A.5 The extratropical transition of Hurricane Helene (2006): Observation of structural evolution and operational model evaluation using QuikSCAT   Michael J. Brennan, UCAR/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome and R. D. Knabb 11:45 AM 13A.6 The Impact of Low-Cost Lagrangian Drifters on Analyses and Short-Range Forecasts of Hurricane Floyd (1999)   John Manobianco, ENSCO Inc., Melbourne, FL; and J. G. Dreher
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Summit B Session 13B Thorpex II
Chairs: Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; Xiang-Yu Huang, NCAR, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 13B.1 Adaptive observation strategies for lidar observations   Junjie Liu, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay 10:45 AM 13B.2 Synoptic-scale Rossby Wave Precursors to heavy Alpine Precipitation   Olivia Martius, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Schwierz and H. C. Davies 11:00 AM 13B.3 Factors influencing downstream anti-cyclogensis during extratropical transition   Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim 11:15 AM 13B.4 Post-processing for multi-model ensembles   Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker and Y. Liu 13B.5 Using Standard Anomaly and Ensemble Data to Support Forecast Confidence of an Extreme Wind Event in the Pacific Northwest on December 14-15 2006   Michael T. Stavish, NOAA/NWS, Medford, OR 11:30 AM 13B.5A Stochastic parameterizations: Impact on short-term perturbation growth and ensemble prediction   C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Teixeira, J. G. McLay, and C. H. Bishop 11:45 AM Paper 13B.6 has been moved. New Poster number P2.49

Browse the complete program of The 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (25-29 June 2007)