Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Expanded View)

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Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday
Short Course/Student Conference Registration
 
Sunday, 11 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration
 
Monday, 12 January 2004
7:30 AM, Monday
Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
 
9:00 AM, Monday
Conference Registration
 
9:00 AM-12:15 PM, Monday, Room 6A
Joint Session 1 Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
9:00 AMWelcoming Remarks  
9:15 AMJ1.2THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme  
Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO
9:45 AMJ1.3Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters  
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish
10:00 AMJ1.4Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system  extended abstract wrf recording
Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth
10:15 AMCoffee Break in Poster session room  
10:45 AMJ1.5Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures  
Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu
11:00 AMJ1.6An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations  extended abstract
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu
11:15 AMJ1.7Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system  extended abstract
Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin
11:30 AMJ1.8The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA  extended abstract
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos
11:45 AMJ1.9Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements  
Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou
12:00 PMJ1.10Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF)  
Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth
 
10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday
Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 6A
Joint Session 2 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
1:30 PMJ2.1Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation  extended abstract
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill
1:45 PMJ2.2Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii  
Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara
2:00 PMJ2.3The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill  extended abstract
Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC/JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo
2:15 PMJ2.4A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model  extended abstract
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
 
2:30 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB
Poster Session 3 Posters of the Forecasting Symposium (Hall 4AB)
 P3.1Testing the Outer Loop in NAVDAS-AR  
Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Rosmond
 P3.2Testing a Relocatable and Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System in the AOSN Monterey Bay  
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, J. A. Cummings, and P. J. Martin
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 3AB
Joint Session 3 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)
Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3, Greenbelt, MD
4:00 PMJ3.1Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter  
Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski
4:15 PMJ3.2Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model  extended abstract
Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu
4:30 PMJ3.3Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation  
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell
4:45 PMJ3.4Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model  extended abstract
Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
5:00 PMJ3.5Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline  extended abstract
Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder
5:15 PMJ3.6Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter  
Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
 
5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
 
5:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the Day
 
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6C
Joint Session 12 Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office
8:30 AMJ12.1Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction  
Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
8:45 AMJ12.2The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts  
Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
9:00 AMJ12.3Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability  
Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY
9:15 AMJ12.4The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Wintertime Surface Air Temperatures  
Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond
9:30 AMJ12.5Analytic Approximation of MJO-like Systems in Super-parameterization  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
11:00 AMJ12.6Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model  
Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan
11:15 AMJ12.7Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM  
Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang
J12.8 Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting  
Guocheng Yuan, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and W. Wang
11:30 AMJ12.9Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM  
W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg
11:45 AMJ12.10The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling  extended abstract wrf recording
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo
12:00 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PMJ12.11A study of subseasonal predictability  
Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh
1:45 PMJ12.12The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies  extended abstract wrf recording
Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay
2:00 PMJ12.13A Synoptic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction  
Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry
2:15 PMJ12.14Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction  
Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha
2:30 PMJ12.15Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods  extended abstract
Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares
2:45 PMJ12.16Probabilistic Forecasting of South-East Asian Intraseasonal Variability using a Wavelet Banding Technique  
Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster
3:00 PMCoffee Break In Exhibit Hall  
3:30 PMJ12.17Improved intraseasonal South Asian monsoon forecasts using a GCM by comparison to wavelet analysis of empirical precipitation data  
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Hoyos and P. J. Webster
3:45 PMJ12.18Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics  
Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson
4:00 PMJ12.19Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method  
Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool
4:15 PMJ12.20Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation  
Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker
4:30 PMJ12.21Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts  
Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill
4:45 PMJ12.22A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala  
K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi
5:00 PMJ12.23International stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP): Initial results on exploring the new approach to regional climate modeling and prediction ( Formerly paper j13.20)  
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Cote, M. Deque, B. Dugas, and J. McGregor
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 4 Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AMJ4.1Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:45 AMJ4.2Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
9:00 AMJ4.3Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002   wrf recording
Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. -. Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H. -. Y. Chun
9:15 AMJ4.4Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization  extended abstract
Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo
9:30 AMJ4.5The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales  extended abstract wrf recording
Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 605/606
Joint Session 5 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
8:30 AMJ5.1A scheme for the characterization and synthesis of anisotropic background error covariances suitable for adaptive variational assimilation  extended abstract
R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD
8:45 AMJ5.2Assimilation experiments at NCEP designed to test quality control procedures and effective scale resolutions for QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data  extended abstract
T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and W. H. Gemmill
9:00 AMJ5.33DVAR retrieval of 3D moisture field from slant-path water vapor observations of high-resolution hypothetical GPS network  extended abstract
Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
9:15 AMJ5.44D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations  extended abstract wrf recording
T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil
9:30 AMJ5.5The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System  
Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.
 
9:45 AM, Tuesday, Hall 4AB
Poster Session 1 Subseasonal forecasting (Hall 4AB)
 P1.1A Stochastic Perspective on Atmospheric Regime Behavior  
Philip Sura, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh
P1.2An investigation of the improvement of MJO simulations in SNU GCM  
Kyung Jin, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Korea, Seoul, Korea; and I. S. Kang
 P1.3The role of GPS total column water vapor in forecasting and analyzing areas of severe convection  
Cathryn L. Meyer, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar
 P1.4Flow Regimes Reconstruction in a nonlinear Statistical model  
D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil
 
11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 6 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:00 AMJ6.1Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system  
F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit
11:15 AMJ6.2Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain  extended abstract wrf recording
Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau
11:30 AMJ6.3Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan  
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei
11:45 AMJ6.4Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel  extended abstract wrf recording
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop
12:00 PMJ6.5Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance  extended abstract
Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco
 
1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 7 Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PMJ7.1The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC)  extended abstract
David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott
1:45 PMJ7.2A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP  
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
2:00 PMJ7.3AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean  
J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson
2:15 PMJ7.4Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System  extended abstract wrf recording
Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
2:30 PMJ7.5Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II  
Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar
2:45 PMJ7.6Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design  
Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
3:00 PMCoffee Break in Exhibit Hall  
3:30 PMJ7.7Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments  extended abstract wrf recording
John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer
3:45 PMJ7.8Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability  extended abstract wrf recording
Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea
4:00 PMJ7.9Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System  
Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker
4:15 PMJ7.10Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach  
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
4:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 2A
Session 1 New Forecast Systems
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
4:30 PM1.1Application of the Generic Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) to Real-Time Forecasting with Adaptive Sampling off the Central California Coast During AOSN-II  
Allan R. Robinson, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and P. J. Haley, P. F. J. Lermusiaux, and W. G. Leslie
4:45 PM1.2Development of a Real-Time Operational Forecast System for the Central California Coastal Ocean  
Yi Chao, JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, Califonia; and Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. Li
5:00 PM1.3Coupled atmosphere-ocean observations and modelling for Lunenburg Bay, Nova Scotia  extended abstract
Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Desjardins, J. Sheng, and L. Wang
5:15 PM1.4Real-Time Ocean Forecasting over the Mediterranean Sea using Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPSTM)  extended abstract
Hao Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and R. Hodur, J. Cummings, X. Hong, and J. Doyle
 
5:30 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day
 
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 8 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:30 AMJ8.1On the predictability of flows with many scales  
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:45 AMJ8.2Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles  extended abstract wrf recording
William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue
9:00 AMJ8.3Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric  
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond
9:15 AMJ8.4Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors  
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim
 
9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
10:00 AM, Wednesday
Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break
 
12:30 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Exhibit Hours
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606
Joint Session 9 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC
1:30 PMJ9.1Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
1:45 PMJ9.2Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System  extended abstract wrf recording
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song
2:00 PMJ9.3Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen
2:15 PMJ9.4Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation  extended abstract wrf recording
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay
 
1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 10 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PMJ10.1Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker
1:45 PMJ10.2Computing the odds on a good probability forecast  
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom
2:00 PMJ10.3The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century  
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
2:15 PMJ10.4Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment  
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux
2:30 PMJ10.5Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors   wrf recording
Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
4:00 PMJ11.1The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting  
Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith
4:15 PMJ11.2Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?  
W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen
4:30 PMJ11.3On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter
4:45 PMJ11.4Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?  extended abstract wrf recording
Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt
5:00 PMJ11.5Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)  extended abstract wrf recording
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake
5:15 PMJ11.6RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System  extended abstract wrf recording
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton
 
5:30 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day
 
7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet
 
Thursday, 15 January 2004
8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Room 6C
Joint Session 13 Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University
8:30 AMJ13.1Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño  
Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
8:45 AMJ13.2Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos  
Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen
9:00 AMJ13.3The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño  
Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison
9:15 AMJ13.4The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade  
Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert
J13.5TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño  
Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Adler
9:30 AMJ13.6Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP  
Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White
9:45 AMFormal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break  
11:00 AMJ13.7Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations  extended abstract
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan
11:15 AMJ13.8Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system  
Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne
11:30 AMJ13.9The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts  
Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
11:45 AMJ13.10Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data  
Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua
12:00 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PMJ13.11Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction  
Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
2:00 PMJ13.12Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles  extended abstract wrf recording
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay
J13.13Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles  
Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James
2:15 PMJ13.14ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement  
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky
2:30 PMJ13.15Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations  
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
2:45 PMJ13.16Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory  
Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PMJ13.17Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability  
Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole
3:45 PMJ13.18POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey
4:00 PMJ13.19Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model  
Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin
4:15 PMJ13.20aA Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models  
D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 14 Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AMJ14.1The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System: Current status and testing of convective momentum transport in the Emanuel cumulus parameterization  extended abstract wrf recording
Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. F. Peng, J. A. Ridout, Y. J. Kim, J. Teixeira, and R. L. Pauley
8:45 AMJ14.2Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2  
Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass
9:00 AMJ14.3A statistical approach to linear perturbation convective parameterization schemes  
Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada
9:15 AMJ14.4Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES  extended abstract wrf recording
Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao
9:30 AMJ14.5Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance  extended abstract
Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
 
9:45 AM, Thursday, Hall 4AB
Poster Session 2 Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Hall 4AB)
 P2.1Can U.S. West Coast climate be forecast?  extended abstract
Steve LaDochy, California State University, Los Angeles, CA; and J. N. Brown, M. Selke, and W. C. Patzert
 P2.2CERES Data Products for Climate Studies  
James V. Koziana, NASA LaRC/SAIC, Hampton, VA
P2.3Examination of the skill produced by a natural analog ensemble system and its potential extension to solving the middle latitude 2-4 week forecast problem  
Jeremy D. Ross, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and R. Hart, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James
 P2.4Parameterization of subsurface temperatures in the Lamont ocean model using neural networks  
Shuyong Li, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Wu
 P2.5The importance of daily verses monthly SSTs in seasonal simulations  
Kathleen V. Pegion, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman and J. Shukla
 
3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
 
3:00 PM, Thursday
Registration Desk Closes
 
5:00 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday
Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
 
5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends
 
6:00 PM, Thursday
Norm Phillips Banquet
 

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