* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Student Conference Registration
Sunday, 11 January 2004
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course Registration
Monday, 12 January 2004
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
	9:00 AM, Monday Conference Registration
	9:00 AM-12:15 PM, Monday, Room 6A Joint Session 1 Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
9:00 AM Welcoming Remarks   9:15 AM J1.2 THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme   Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM J1.3 Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters   Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish 10:00 AM J1.4 Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system   Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth 10:15 AM Coffee Break in Poster session room   10:45 AM J1.5 Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures   Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu 11:00 AM J1.6 An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations   Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu 11:15 AM J1.7 Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system   Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin 11:30 AM J1.8 The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA   Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos 11:45 AM J1.9 Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements   Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou 12:00 PM J1.10 Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF)   Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth
	10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 6A Joint Session 2 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM J2.1 Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation   Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill 1:45 PM J2.2 Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii   Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara 2:00 PM J2.3 The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill   Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC/JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo 2:15 PM J2.4 A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model   Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	2:30 PM, Monday, Hall 4AB Poster Session 3 Posters of the Forecasting Symposium (Hall 4AB)
P3.1 Testing the Outer Loop in NAVDAS-AR   Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Rosmond   P3.2 Testing a Relocatable and Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System in the AOSN Monterey Bay   Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, J. A. Cummings, and P. J. Martin
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 3AB Joint Session 3 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)
Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3, Greenbelt, MD
4:00 PM J3.1 Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter   Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski 4:15 PM J3.2 Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model   Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu 4:30 PM J3.3 Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation   C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell 4:45 PM J3.4 Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model   Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 5:00 PM J3.5 Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline   Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder 5:15 PM J3.6 Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter   Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
	5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
	5:30 PM, Monday Sessions end for the Day
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
	8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6C Joint Session 12 Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Organizer: Siegfried Schubert, NASA Data Assimilation Office
8:30 AM J12.1 Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction   Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 8:45 AM J12.2 The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts   Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 9:00 AM J12.3 Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability   Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY 9:15 AM J12.4 The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Wintertime Surface Air Temperatures   Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond 9:30 AM J12.5 Analytic Approximation of MJO-like Systems in Super-parameterization   Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   11:00 AM J12.6 Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model   Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan 11:15 AM J12.7 Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM   Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang J12.8 Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting   Guocheng Yuan, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and W. Wang 11:30 AM J12.9 Subseasonal to interannual prediction sensitivities in the GFDL/FMS GCM   W. Stern, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, R. Gudgel, M. Harrison, and A. Wittenberg 11:45 AM J12.10 The physical perturbation implementation of NCEP RSM for regional climate downscaling   Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and Y. Song and K. Mo 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM J12.11 A study of subseasonal predictability   Matthew Newman, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh 1:45 PM J12.12 The lifespan of subseasonal locally coupled anomalies   Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai and E. Kalnay 2:00 PM J12.13 A Synoptic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction   Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry 2:15 PM J12.14 Lingering Memory and Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction   Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Van den Dool and S. Saha 2:30 PM J12.15 Long-range forecasting by EEOF extrapolation by linear and non-linear methods   Constantin Mares, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; and I. Mares 2:45 PM J12.16 Probabilistic Forecasting of South-East Asian Intraseasonal Variability using a Wavelet Banding Technique   Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 3:00 PM Coffee Break In Exhibit Hall   3:30 PM J12.17 Improved intraseasonal South Asian monsoon forecasts using a GCM by comparison to wavelet analysis of empirical precipitation data   Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Hoyos and P. J. Webster 3:45 PM J12.18 Impacts of Rainfall Assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation and Large Scale Dynamics   Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. Tao, A. Hou, and W. Olson 4:00 PM J12.19 Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method   Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool 4:15 PM J12.20 Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation   Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker 4:30 PM J12.21 Stratospheric memory and skill of subseasonal forecasts   Mark P. Baldwin, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and D. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill 4:45 PM J12.22 A Diagnostic study of the changes in Atmospheric Moisture over the Indian Ocean prior to Monsoon Onset over Kerala   K.P. Sooraj, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, IA, India; and C. K. Rajan, B. Simon, and P. C. Joshi 5:00 PM J12.23 International stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP): Initial results on exploring the new approach to regional climate modeling and prediction ( Formerly paper j13.20)   Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Cote, M. Deque, B. Dugas, and J. McGregor
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 4 Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AM J4.1 Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact   Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO 8:45 AM J4.2 Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model   Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 9:00 AM J4.3 Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002   Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. -. Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H. -. Y. Chun 9:15 AM J4.4 Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization   Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo 9:30 AM J4.5 The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales   Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Joint Session 5 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
8:30 AM J5.1 A scheme for the characterization and synthesis of anisotropic background error covariances suitable for adaptive variational assimilation   R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD 8:45 AM J5.2 Assimilation experiments at NCEP designed to test quality control procedures and effective scale resolutions for QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data   T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and W. H. Gemmill 9:00 AM J5.3 3DVAR retrieval of 3D moisture field from slant-path water vapor observations of high-resolution hypothetical GPS network   Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 9:15 AM J5.4 4D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations   T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil 9:30 AM J5.5 The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System   Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.
	9:45 AM, Tuesday, Hall 4AB Poster Session 1 Subseasonal forecasting (Hall 4AB)
P1.1 A Stochastic Perspective on Atmospheric Regime Behavior   Philip Sura, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh P1.2 An investigation of the improvement of MJO simulations in SNU GCM   Kyung Jin, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Korea, Seoul, Korea; and I. S. Kang   P1.3 The role of GPS total column water vapor in forecasting and analyzing areas of severe convection   Cathryn L. Meyer, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar   P1.4 Flow Regimes Reconstruction in a nonlinear Statistical model   D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 6 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM J6.1 Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system   F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit 11:15 AM J6.2 Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain   Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau 11:30 AM J6.3 Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei 11:45 AM J6.4 Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel   Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop 12:00 PM J6.5 Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance   Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco
	1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 7 Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM J7.1 The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC)   David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott 1:45 PM J7.2 A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 2:00 PM J7.3 AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean   J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson 2:15 PM J7.4 Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System   Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 2:30 PM J7.5 Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II   Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar 2:45 PM J7.6 Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design   Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 3:00 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   3:30 PM J7.7 Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments   John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer 3:45 PM J7.8 Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability   Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea 4:00 PM J7.9 Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System   Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker 4:15 PM J7.10 Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach   Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO
	4:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 2A Session 1 New Forecast Systems
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
4:30 PM 1.1 Application of the Generic Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) to Real-Time Forecasting with Adaptive Sampling off the Central California Coast During AOSN-II   Allan R. Robinson, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and P. J. Haley, P. F. J. Lermusiaux, and W. G. Leslie 4:45 PM 1.2 Development of a Real-Time Operational Forecast System for the Central California Coastal Ocean   Yi Chao, JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, Califonia; and Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. Li 5:00 PM 1.3 Coupled atmosphere-ocean observations and modelling for Lunenburg Bay, Nova Scotia   Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Desjardins, J. Sheng, and L. Wang 5:15 PM 1.4 Real-Time Ocean Forecasting over the Mediterranean Sea using Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPSTM)   Hao Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and R. Hodur, J. Cummings, X. Hong, and J. Doyle
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions end for the day
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
	8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 8 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM J8.1 On the predictability of flows with many scales   Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO 8:45 AM J8.2 Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles   William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue 9:00 AM J8.3 Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond 9:15 AM J8.4 Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors   C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim
	9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:00 AM, Wednesday Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	12:30 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Joint Session 9 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC
1:30 PM J9.1 Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction   Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 1:45 PM J9.2 Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System   Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song 2:00 PM J9.3 Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting   Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen 2:15 PM J9.4 Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 10 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM J10.1 Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker 1:45 PM J10.2 Computing the odds on a good probability forecast   Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom 2:00 PM J10.3 The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century   Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2:15 PM J10.4 Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment   Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux 2:30 PM J10.5 Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors   Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
4:00 PM J11.1 The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting   Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith 4:15 PM J11.2 Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?   W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen 4:30 PM J11.3 On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting   David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter 4:45 PM J11.4 Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?   Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt 5:00 PM J11.5 Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)   Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake 5:15 PM J11.6 RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System   Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton
	5:30 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
	7:30 PM, Wednesday AMS Annual Awards Banquet
Thursday, 15 January 2004
	8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Room 6C Joint Session 13 Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University
8:30 AM J13.1 Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño   Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA 8:45 AM J13.2 Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos   Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen 9:00 AM J13.3 The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño   Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison 9:15 AM J13.4 The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade   Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert J13.5 TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño   Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Adler 9:30 AM J13.6 Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP   Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White 9:45 AM Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break   11:00 AM J13.7 Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations   Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan 11:15 AM J13.8 Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system   Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne 11:30 AM J13.9 The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts   Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 11:45 AM J13.10 Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data   Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM J13.11 Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction   Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 2:00 PM J13.12 Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay J13.13 Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles   Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James 2:15 PM J13.14 ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement   Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky 2:30 PM J13.15 Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh 2:45 PM J13.16 Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory   Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD 3:00 PM Coffee Break   3:30 PM J13.17 Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability   Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole 3:45 PM J13.18 POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction   Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey 4:00 PM J13.19 Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model   Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin 4:15 PM J13.20a A Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models   D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 14 Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AM J14.1 The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System: Current status and testing of convective momentum transport in the Emanuel cumulus parameterization   Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. F. Peng, J. A. Ridout, Y. J. Kim, J. Teixeira, and R. L. Pauley 8:45 AM J14.2 Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2   Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass 9:00 AM J14.3 A statistical approach to linear perturbation convective parameterization schemes   Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada 9:15 AM J14.4 Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES   Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao 9:30 AM J14.5 Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance   Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
	9:45 AM, Thursday, Hall 4AB Poster Session 2 Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Hall 4AB)
P2.1 Can U.S. West Coast climate be forecast?   Steve LaDochy, California State University, Los Angeles, CA; and J. N. Brown, M. Selke, and W. C. Patzert   P2.2 CERES Data Products for Climate Studies   James V. Koziana, NASA LaRC/SAIC, Hampton, VA P2.3 Examination of the skill produced by a natural analog ensemble system and its potential extension to solving the middle latitude 2-4 week forecast problem   Jeremy D. Ross, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and R. Hart, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James   P2.4 Parameterization of subsurface temperatures in the Lamont ocean model using neural networks   Shuyong Li, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. Wu   P2.5 The importance of daily verses monthly SSTs in seasonal simulations   Kathleen V. Pegion, COLA, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman and J. Shukla
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	3:00 PM, Thursday Registration Desk Closes
	5:00 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	5:30 PM, Thursday Conference Ends
	6:00 PM, Thursday Norm Phillips Banquet

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