* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 12 January 2002
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
Sunday, 13 January 2002
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	9:00 AM, Sunday CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
Monday, 14 January 2002
	12:00 AM, Monday Sessions end for the day (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 17 January (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	9:00 AM, Monday Welcoming Remarks
	9:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday Joint Session 2 Weather Derivatives & Weather Risk Management (Joint with 3rd Symposium on Environmental Applications and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences)
Organizer: Robert S. Dischel, Weather Market Observer, New York, NY
9:30 AM J2.1 The ideal meteorologist   Ravi V. Nathan, Aquila Inc., Kansas City, MO 10:00 AM J2.2 Forecasting for profits   Frank M. Caifa, Swiss RE New Markets, New York, NY 10:30 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   11:00 AM J2.3 Help Wanted: Meteorologists to fix drought in precipitation contracts   Robert S. Dischel, Weather Market Observer, New York, NY 11:15 AM J2.4 Skillful seasonal degree-day forecasts and their utility in the weather derivatives market   Jeffrey A. Shorter, Weather Services International, Corp., Billerica, MA; and T. M. Crawford, R. J. Boucher, and J. P. Burbridge 11:30 AM J2.5 Can a Meteorologist Beat the Weather Market?   Lee E. Branscome, Environmental Dynamics Research, Inc., Palm Beach Gardens, FL 11:45 AM J2.6 Weather Risk Assessment at the Dawn of Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction   John L. Keller, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA
	9:30 AM-3:30 PM, Monday Session 1 forecast evaluation
Organizer: Laurence W. Wilson, Enviornment Canada, Dorval, PQ Canada
9:30 AM Welcoming Remarks   9:45 AM 1.1 Summary of Short Course on Verification of Climate Forecasts   To be determined, 10:15 AM 1.2 Transformed skill scores   Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. G. Bullock and B. G. Brown 10:30 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   11:00 AM 1.3 Additional Measures of Skill for Probabilistic Forecasts   F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO 1.4 Determining the accuracy of small-scale information in forecast fields   Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain 11:14 AM 1.5 Using Verification Techniques to Evaluate Differences Among Convective Forecasts   Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, J. E. Hart, and C. Fischer 11:29 AM 1.6 Improved approaches for measuring the quality of convective weather forecasts   Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Mahoney, C. A. Davis, R. Bullock, and C. K. Mueller 11:44 AM 1.7 Relative economical value of CMC seasonal forecasts   Normand Gagnon, MSC, Dorval, PQ; and R. Verret 11:59 AM Lunch Break   1:29 PM 1.8 Diagnostic Verification of the IRI Net Assessment Forecasts, 1997–2000   Daneil S. Wilks, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and C. M. Godfrey 1:44 PM 1.9 Workstation ETA Verification Efforts at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center   Steven A. Listemaa, NOAA/NWS, Slidell, LA 1:59 PM 1.10 A Methodology for Determining River Forecasting Skill using Monthly Cumulative Distribution Functions of Mean Daily Flow   Noreen O. Schwein, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO 2:14 PM 1.11 A Statistical Evaluation of Mainstem Forecasting Errors for the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers   Lee W. Larson, NOAA/NWS (retired), Prairie Village, KS; and N. O. Schwein 2:29 PM 1.12 On the verification of ensemble precipitation products   John. C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles and M. Mullusky 1.13 Evaluating verification procedures for ensemble precipitation predictions   Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. F. Loughe 2:43 PM 1.14 Statistical comparison of forecast meteorology with observations using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System   Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and A. H. Weber and J. H. Weber 2:58 PM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
	1:30 PM-4:15 PM, Monday Joint Session 4 Climate and Weather Services for Weather Risk Management (Joint with 3rd Symposium on Environmental Applications and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences)
Organizer: Robert Leffler, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PM J4.0a Benefits and Costs of Weather and Climate Services   John W. Zillman, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 2:00 PM J4.1 Weather risk management challenges and NWS climate and observing system solutions   Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 2:30 PM J4.2 NOAA's surface weather observing networks   Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and W. M. Faas 3:00 PM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   3:30 PM J4.3 United States Climate Normals for the 1971–2000 Period: Product Descriptions and Applications   Timothy W. Owen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. Whitehurst 3:45 PM J4.4 Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) Modernization   Andrew H. Horvitz, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. J. Leffler J4.5 Paper moved to the 18th Conference on IIPS, Poster Session P1, New paper Number P1.28   3:58 PM J4.6 Paper moved to Session 5, new paper number 5.8A   3:59 PM J4.7 Structuring climate services through stakeholder-driven assessment   Barbara J. Morehouse, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ; and G. M. Garfin, M. Vasquez Leon, H. Hartmann, T. Pagano, K. Kolivras, F. Ni, T. Finan, D. M. Liverman, A. Comrie, R. Bales, S. Sorooshian, M. K. Hughes, J. T. Overpeck, D. Austin, and D. Hadley
	3:30 PM-4:45 PM, Monday Session 2 Topics in Probability and Statistics for the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytech Institute and State Univ., Hampton, VA
3:30 PM 2.1 Randomness of Radiances from Broken Cloud Fields   G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA 3:45 PM 2.2 Spurious Relations Among Rainfall Parameters Arising from Inadequate Sampling and Fitting   A. R. Jameson, RJH Scientific, Inc., Arlington, VA; and A. B. Kostinski 4:00 PM 2.3 Temporal spectra of Earth radiation budget components   Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith 4:15 PM 2.4 Determiniation of Model Valid Prediction Period using the Backward Fokker-Planck Equation   Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov and C. W. Fan 4:30 PM 2.5 Periods and its prediction in the coming 10 years in china   Fengying Wei, Chinese Academy of Meteorology Sciences, Beijing, China
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
Tuesday, 15 January 2002
	8:30 AM-2:00 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 1 Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)
Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AM J1.1 Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)   David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 8:45 AM J1.2 Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)   T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford 9:00 AM J1.3 Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder 9:15 AM J1.4 Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP   M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du 9:30 AM J1.5 Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use   Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson 9:45 AM J1.6 The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF EPS   Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM J1.7 Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction   Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico 10:45 AM J1.8 Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus 11:00 AM J1.9 Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond 11:15 AM J1.10 A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes   Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop 11:30 AM J1.11 Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model   Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 11:45 AM J1.12 Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts   Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop 12:00 PM Grand Poster Luncheon
	8:30 AM-2:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 3 Climate Variations and Forecasting (Joint with the 16th Conference Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizers: Rick Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Bob Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM J3.1 A new significance test for empirical orthogonal functions   M. S. Santhanam, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and B. Aditya and G. A. Kumar 8:45 AM J3.2 The correlation structure of some simple indices of global climate variability and change   David J. Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and K. Braganza 9:00 AM J3.3 Cloudiness trends in Canada   Ewa J. Milewska, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada 9:15 AM J3.4 A linear approach to atmospheric predictability on the medium and extended range   Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. R. Winkler 9:30 AM J3.5 Do weather or climate variables and their impacts have heavy-tailed distributions?   Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM J3.6 A hazard model for tornado occurrence in the United States   Cathryn L. Meyer, Boston College, Boston, MA; and H. E. Brooks and M. P. Kay 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM J3.7 A new perspective on the climatology of tornadoes in the United States   Sara L. Bruening, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Kay and H. E. Brooks 10:45 AM J3.8 Determining Fog Type in the Los Angeles Basin Using Historic Surface Observation Data   Jeffrey A. Baars, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and M. Witiw, A. Al-Habash, and J. Ramaprasad 11:00 AM J3.9 Fog in the Los Angeles Basin: Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation   Michael R. Witiw, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and J. A. Baars and J. Ramaprasad 11:15 AM J3.10 Experimental forecasting of dry season “storminess” over Florida and the southeast United States from the ENSO signal using multiple linear regression techniques   Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and R. A. Almeida 11:30 AM J3.11 Predictability of anomalous storm tracks   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland 11:45 AM J3.12 Seasonal forecasting of strong winds over Europe   J. P. Palutikof, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. Holt and T. J. Osborn 12:00 PM Grand Poster Luncheon   2:00 PM J3.13 A Space-Time Model for Seasonal Hurricane Prediction   Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Niu and J. B. Elsner 2:15 PM J3.14 Predictive United States' hurricane climate   James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. H. Bossak
	2:00 PM-5:14 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 1 Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Organizer: Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA
2:00 PM J1.13 Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)   Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 2:15 PM J1.14 Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers J1.15 Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast   Dingchen Hou, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and S. R. Hanna 2:29 PM J1.16 Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities   Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 2:44 PM J1.17 Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory   Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake 2:59 PM J1.18 How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?   Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth 3:14 PM J1.19 Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest   Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass 3:29 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   3:59 PM J1.20 Ensemble canonical correlation prediction of seasonal precipitation over the United States: raising the bar for dynamical model forecasts   William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim and S. S. P. Shen 4:14 PM J1.21 Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM   Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet 4:29 PM J1.22 Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems   Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd 4:44 PM J1.23 The value of perfection   James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest 4:59 PM J1.24 The Kalman-LÉvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and LÉvy law noises   Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette
	3:00 PM-7:30 PM, Tuesday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 5 Statistical Downscaling (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of Califonia, La Jolla, CA
4:00 PM J5.1 Sensitivity of Climate Change Estimates Using Statistical Downscaling to the Method and Predictors   Radan Huth, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic 4:15 PM J5.2 Modeling stochastic structure of daily temperature as downscaling of GCM fields   Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. G. Craig 4:30 PM J5.3 A spatial time series framework for modeling daily precipitation at regional scales   Phaedon C. Kyriakidis, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and N. L. Miller and J. Kim 4:45 PM J5.4 Regional climate change scenarios in Atlantic Canada utilizing statistical downscaling techniques: Preliminary Results   Gary S. Lines, MSC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and E. Barrow 5:00 PM J5.5 North Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios   Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and V. R. Swail 5:15 PM J5.6 Possible climate change impacts on ozone in the Great Lakes Region: Some implications for respiratory illness   Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. P. J. Scott and M. L. Wilson
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions end for the day
Wednesday, 16 January 2002
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday President's Symposium
	9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
	10:00 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday President's Symposium (Continued)
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday Joint Poster Session 1 Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY
JP1.1 The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings   Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell   JP1.2 10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification   Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX   JP1.3 Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States   Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer   JP1.4 Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?   Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez   JP1.5 Using skill scores to assist assessment of the "Man-MOS-Met Mix" in probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasting   Preston W. Leftwich Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO   JP1.6 Principal component analysis of month-to-month precipitation variability for NCDC California climatic divisions,(1895–6 through 2000–1 seasons)   Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA   JP1.7 Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees   Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord   JP1.8 Summary statistics of precipitation and its anomalies for regions of Virginia from 1900 through 1999   T. Dale Bess, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA   JP1.9 data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events   George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM   JP1.10 A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem   Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller   JP1.11 Annual course of successive 30-days' overall, above normal, and below normal temperature persistence at one-day intervals for four U.S. stations with lengthy histories   Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA   JP1.12 Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model   Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China   JP1.13 A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index   Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg   JP1.14 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE NUMBER OF ASTHMA ATTACKS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE CITY OF BITOLA-MACEDONIA   Blagojce Mickovski, NOAA/NWS, Bitola, Macedonia; and Z. Nakeski   JP1.15 Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures   Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan   JP1.16 Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov   JP1.17 Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction   Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS   JP1.18 Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts   Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel   JP1.19 Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application   Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor   JP1.20 Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX   James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh   JP1.21 A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes   Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop   JP1.22 Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth JP1.23 Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models   Paul A. Nutter, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK   JP1.24 Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system   Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg   JP1.25 Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors   Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan   JP1.26 Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting   John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles   JP1.27 Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction   Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu   JP1.28 Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts   Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA   JP1.29 Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart   JP1.30 Linear and Nonlinear Perspectives of Forecast Error Estimate Using the First Passage Time (Formerly Paper 5.6 in the Observations Program)   Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov
	3:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:00 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Reception (Cash Bar)
Thursday, 17 January 2002
	8:30 AM-3:30 PM, Thursday Session 3 weather forecasting
Organizer: Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM 3.1 The new NWS MOS development and implementation systems   Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle 8:45 AM 3.2 The new AVN/MRF MOS development and model changes: a volatile mix?   Mary C. Erickson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle and K. L. Carroll 9:00 AM 3.3 Progress in the development of the Canadian updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system   Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and M. Vallée 9:15 AM 3.4 TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada—Part One: Introduction and development of the very short-range module   Pierre Bourgouin, Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Montpetit, R. Verret, and L. J. Wilson 9:30 AM 3.5 TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada Part two—Development of the short-range forecast module and results   Jacques Montpetit, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. J. Wilson, and R. Verret 9:45 AM 3.6 Ensemble, dynamic MOS   Peter P. Neilley, Weather Services International, Inc., Billerica, MA; and W. Myers and G. S. Young 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM 3.7 Combining forecasts for superior prediction   Gregory S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO 10:45 AM 3.8 Looking far back vs. looking around enough: operational weather forecasting by spatial composition of recent observations   Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO 11:00 AM 3.9 Surface wind gust statistics at the Savannah River Site   Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and M. J. Parker and J. H. Weber 11:15 AM 3.10 Probabilistic early warning of cloud-to-ground lightning at an airport   Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins 11:30 AM 3.11 Statistical models for lightning prediction using Canadian Lightning Detection Network observations   William R. Burrows, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada 11:45 AM 3.12 The value of cloud lightning in probabilistic thunderstorm warning   Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins 12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM 3.13 Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type   John V. Cortinas Jr., University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. F. Brill and M. E. Baldwin 1:45 PM 3.14 Topographic and synoptic influences on cold season severe weather events in California   Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA; and G. Martin, S. LaDochy, and J. N. Brown 2:00 PM 3.15 The application of synoptic stratification to the statistical forecasting of rainfall and surface wind   Gregory J. Connor, Bureau of Meteorology, Townsville, Queensland, Australia 2:15 PM 3.16 An Empirically Developed Forecast Model for the Surface Layer Stability Transition Period   Gail-Tirrell Vaucher, Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM 2:30 PM 3.17 Using Current-Generation Meteorological/Photochemical Modeling Systems for Real-Time Ozone Forecasting   Christian Hogrefe, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. T. Rao and K. L. Demerjian 2:45 PM 3.18 A study of predictive models for forecasting hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Pingili and R. L. Miller 3:00 PM 3.19 Analyzing the relationship between solar flux and hurricane strength to forecast hurricane development   Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Inc, A Boeing Company, Springfield, VA; and P. A. Zuzolo, B. J. Zuzolo, and G. N. Greene 3:15 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	3:00 PM-6:30 PM, Thursday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:15 PM, Thursday Conference Ends
	5:00 PM, Thursday Closing Event Begins
	5:00 PM-6:15 PM, Thursday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	6:30 PM-7:30 PM, Thursday Event Presentation
	7:30 PM, Thursday 9 Tropical Party

Browse the complete program of The 2002 Annual