* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Thursday, 28 July 2005
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break
Sunday, 31 July 2005
	4:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday Registration Opens
Monday, 1 August 2005
	7:00 AM-8:00 AM, Monday Registration continues through Friday, 5 August
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 1 Opening Session
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM, Silver Spring, MD
8:00 AM 1.1 Opening Remarks   Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD 8:15 AM 1.2 Partnerships for Environmental Literacy, serving the American public   D. L. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 8:45 AM 1.3 NCEP: NWP in the era of common infrastructures WRF & ESMF   Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and G. DiMego 9:15 AM 1.4 The COMET Program: Fifteen years of education and training for weather forecasters and the user community   Timothy Spangler, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Empire Ballroom Session 2A Applications to Support Weather Forecasts – Nowcasting and Weather Impacts Analyses
Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems, Bellevue, NE
10:30 AM 2A.1 Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?   Melissa S. Bukovsky, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain and M. E. Baldwin 10:45 AM 2A.2 A simple physically based snowfall algorithm   Daniel K. Cobb Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Caribou, ME; and J. S. Waldstreicher 11:00 AM 2A.3 The Meteorological Service of Canada/COMET partnership….an international success story   Peter Lewis, MSC, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia; and G. Toth, B. Muller, and D. Wesley 11:15 AM 2A.4 COMET’s influence on meteorological education and research within universities: The Saint Louis University experience   James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and C. E. Graves 11:30 AM 2A.5 Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment   John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, G. W. Carbin, D. Bright, J. J. Levit, and J. A. Hart 11:45 AM 2A.6 Using The WRF Model To Simulate Flow Through California’s Altamont Pass   John W. Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and G. E. Van Knowe and K. T. Waight
	10:30 AM-11:00 AM, Monday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 2B Forecasting Tools – Helping the Public Understand the Impact of Daily Weather Forecasts
CoChair: Douglas C. Young, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD Chair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
10:30 AM 2B.1 WSI's Operational Implementation of the WRF model   Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis, S. Marshall, and C. Liu 10:45 AM 2B.2 Defining cognitive decision making processes in forecasting: a knowledge based system to generate weather graphics   Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia 11:00 AM 2B.3 Assessing forecast uncertainty in the National Digital Forecast Database   Matthew R. Peroutka, NOAA/NWS/Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra and J. L. Wagner 2B.4 An approach to creating an integrated graphical hazards outlook product   Robert R. Handel, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL 11:15 AM 2B.5 An internet site for professional meteorologists   Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and J. T. Candor and M. A. Steinberg 11:30 AM 2B.6 Broadband changes the relationship between numerical modeling, operational (including broadcast) meteorolgists and consumers   Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Empire Ballroom Session 3 Convection and Precipitation
CoChair: Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC Canada Chair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
1:30 PM 3.1 The effects of organized upstream convection on downstream precipitation   Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 1:45 PM 3.2 Ridge rollers: Mesoscale disturbances on the periphery of cutoff anticyclones   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 2:00 PM 3.3 Use of proximity sounding parameters to improve the prediction of Mesoscale Convective system (MCS) speed and dissipation   Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks and S. J. Weiss 2:15 PM 3.4 Analysis of a cold-air precipitation event: Observational diagnosis and numerical model sensitivity   Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 2:30 PM 3.5 Cool-season regime transition and its impact on precipitation in the Northeast   Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, A. Aiyyer, and R. H. Grumm 2:45 PM 3.6 Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Cloud-resolving experiments and multistage error growth dynamics   Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and N. Bei, R. Rotunno, and C. Snyder
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-4:45 PM, Monday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 4A Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts
CoChair: Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
3:30 PM 4A.1 The role of streamwise and transverse quasi-geostrophic vertical motions in the mid-latitude cyclone life cycle   Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 3:45 PM 4A.2 A study of coherent tropopause disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric circumpolar vortex   Joseph R. Kravitz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and A. Aiyyer 4:00 PM 4A.3 Hurricane force extratropical cyclones   Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. M. Von Ahn and G. M. McFadden 4:15 PM 4A.4 Effects of terrain on the horizontal and vertical structures of fronts over the Intermountain region   Jason C. Shafer, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh 4:30 PM 4A.5 The Fiftieth Anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale model simulation of the cold front of 17-18 April 1953   David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Roebber
	3:30 PM-4:45 PM, Monday, Empire Ballroom Session 4B Operational Model Development
CoChair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY Chair: Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
3:30 PM 4B.1 Recent improvements to NRL's mesoscale modeling system   James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, J. C. Golaz, R. M. Hodur, T. Holt, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. E. Nachamkin, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang 3:45 PM 4B.2 From the RUC to the Rapid Refresh   Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. Dévényi, T. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, S. E. Peckham, K. J. Brundage, S. Weygandt, T. W. Schlatter, J. Brown, and T. L. Smith 4:00 PM 4B.3 Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction   Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, D. Rao, J. Derber, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, N. Surgi, and F. Toepfer 4:15 PM 4B.4 The Operational WRF NMM at NCEP   Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pyle and H. Y. Chuang 4:30 PM 4B.5 The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System: Final Eta model/analysis changes and preliminary experiments using the WRF-NMM   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, B. S. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, M. Pondeca, M. Pyle, V. C. K. Wong, and W. S. Wu
	4:45 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 5A Large- and Synoptic-Scale Processes
CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
4:45 PM 5A.1 Dust Transport Application forecasting of Middle Eastern, African and Asian Dust Storms   B. H. Barnum, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD; and N. S. Winstead, G. R. Brooks, P. Ginoux, L. Burke, J. Lippman, B. Toth, and I. Gotchel 5:00 PM 5A.2 Climate change and teleconnection patterns: An analysis of temperature and flow regime trends over North America   Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Aiyyer, J. R. Gyakum, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and L. Bosart 5:15 PM 5A.3 A Statistical analysis and synoptic climatology of heat waves over the United States   Scott C. Runyon, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
	4:45 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Empire Ballroom Session 5B Socioeconomic impacts of forecasts
Chair: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK
4:45 PM 5B.1 Expert Mental Modeling of the Weather Forecast System   Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Zia and R. E. Morss 5:00 PM 5B.2 Distance learning training for aviation forecasters: The impact of weather on air traffic management   Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and V. C. Johnson and D. K. Cobb 5:15 PM 5B.3 Societal Value of Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: A Synthesis   Asim Zia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss and J. K. Lazo
	5:30 PM, Monday Sessions End for the Day
	5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday, Regency Ballroom Poster Session 1 Conference Posters
P1.1 An improved clear air turbulence diagnostic index to account for unbalanced flow in anticyclonically curved jet streams   Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Knox   P1.2 The impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and Lyapunov exponents as a diagnostic   Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and I. I. Mokhov, S. Dostoglou, A. Kunz, and J. P. Burkhardt   P1.3 Planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics: More evidence for the paucity of wave-wave interactions in Southern Hemisphere blocking   Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. Kunz and J. P. Burkhardt   P1.4 Diagnosis of banded precipitation patterns associated with extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones using CSI theory   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL   P1.5 A climatology of strong cold fronts over the western United States   Jason C. Shafer, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh   P1.6 Cool-season moderate precipitation events in the Northeastern United States   Keith R. Wagner, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. S. Evans   P1.7 HPC's Excessive Rainfall Potential Outlook   Michael T. Eckert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD   P1.8 The flash flood of 12 July 2004 in Burlington County, New Jersey: A case study   Michael J. Gorse, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope   P1.9 Observed Bow Echo events during the first week of July 2003 concurrent with BAMEX   Nicholas D. Metz, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   P1.10 Examining the role of mesoscale features in the structure and evolution of precipitation regions in northeast winter storms   Matthew D. Greenstein, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. J. Nicosia   P1.11 An examination of cool-season damaging wind events in the northern mid-Atlantic region   Raymond Kruzdlo, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and A. M. Cope   P1.12 A Satellite Perspective of the Propagation Characteristics of a Mesoscale Convective System over Northwest Alabama and Northeast Mississippi   Jay Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD   P1.13 Using Multi-Spectral Satellite Remote Sensing Techniques to Nowcast Nocturnal Convection Initiation   Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski   P1.14 Dominant factors influencing precipitation efficiency in a continental mid-latitude location   Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, Malaysian Meteorological Service, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market   P1.15 An observational analysis of an Alabama dryline event on March 19–20, 2003   Robert E. Barbre Jr., University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, K. Knupp, W. Mackenzie Jr., P. Gatlin, and D. Phillips   P1.16 Warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone development: Sensitivity to the nature of the incipient vortex   Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart   P1.17 Towards a better understanding of and ability to forecast the wind field expansion during the extratropical transition process   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart   P1.18 Wet snow icing upstream of mountains   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson   P1.19 Wet snow icing downstream of mountains   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Á. J. Elíasson   P1.20 Warm season extreme quantitative precipitation forecasting for the Burlington, VT region   John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah, P. Sisson, M. Kimball, and A. Roberge   P1.21 Validation of a numerical wind forecast by dust image   Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland   P1.22 The textbook foehn   Haraldur "lafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland   P1.23 The response filter   Mark Askelson, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and H. Lin, M. Solum, and C. Chambers   P1.24 The impact of different microphysical schemes on mesoscale circulations and convective system morphology in 4-10 km grid spacing WRF simulations   Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, Jr.   P1.25 The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real—time implementation within NWS web—based graphical forecasts   Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag   P1.26 Synthesizing tropical analysis perturbations for use with the Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)   Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop   P1.27 Spurious pressure and geopotential height fluctuations in the North American Regional Reanalysis   Gregory L. West, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh   P1.28 Solving for Pressure: Accuracy and Acceleration   Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France   P1.29 Sloping Steps Eta Discretization   Fedor Mesinger, Univ. Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Jovic   P1.30 Simultaneous Retrieval of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State Variables with Radar Data and Ensemble Kalman Filter Method   Mingjing Tong, SOM/CAPS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue   P1.31 Simulating a windstorm upstream of steep mountains   H.álfdáN. Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson P1.32 Sequential estimation of systematic error on near-surface mesoscale grids   Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and D. L. Rife   P1.33 Sensitivity of Hurricane Charley simulations to changes in the WRF model   Matthew J. Rosier, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. K. Miller   P1.34 Satellite and numerical model data—driven cloud ceiling and visibility estimation   Richard Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, P. H. Herzegh, G. Wiener, J. Cowie, and J. M. Brown   P1.35 Predicting precipitation in a mesoscale mountain range   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson   P1.36 Numerical prediction of atmospheric icing   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and C. Ubelmann and G. Hafsteinsson   P1.37 Precpitation downstream of a mesoscale mountain ridge   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and Ó. Rögnvaldsson   P1.38 Precipitation Verification Studies of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model along the East Coast of the US   Paul A. Kucera, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and C. M. Paulsen and M. Taffe   P1.39 Precipitation extreme downstream of a mountain   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Jónsson   P1.40 Optimally shifted QPF verification scores   Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. G. Brown, K. F. Brill, and G. J. DiMego   P1.41 Operational Considerations of the December 26, 2004 Snowstorm across Hampton Roads Virginia and Northeast North Carolina   Timothy Gingrich, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. Billet   P1.42 On the performance, impact, and liabilities of automated precipitation gage screening algorithms   Edward Tollerud, NOAA Research-FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, Y. Lin, and A. Loughe   P1.43 Observations and simulation of a windstorm below breaking gravity waves   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson   P1.44 Nowcasting Applications of the Space—Time Mesoscale Analysis System   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, J. A. McGinley, and S. Albers   P1.45 NOAA's Deployment of the Water Vapor Sensor System (WVSS II)   David Helms, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Fellows, T. Roberts, K. Schrab, F. Toepfer, B. Ballish, R. Baker, R. J. Fleming, R. May, R. A. Petersen, and W. R. Moninger   P1.46 NCEP SREF Forecasts of three Hurricanes during the 2004 Tropical Season   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA, State College, PA; and J. Du   P1.47 MM5IDL: A Flexible Framework for Post—Processing MM5 Data   Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and Ö. Rögnvaldsson   P1.48 Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP): statistical guidance of wind speed, direction, and gusts for aviation weather   Jerry R. Wiedenfeld, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD   P1.49 Intermountain cold pool structure, transport, and mixing as revealed by isotopic trace gas and particulate matter concentrations over the Salt Lake Valley   W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Pataki, E. Pardyjak, J. Kiran, B. Tyler, R. Peterson, and A. Nair   P1.50 Incorporating orographic anisotropy and flow blocking effects in an orographic drag parameterization scheme   Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle   P1.51 Improving Short Term Precipitation Forecasting through recognition of satellite based signatures combined with analysis of upper air and surface data   John Simko, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD   P1.52 Improvements in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) categorical visibility and obstruction to vision statistical guidance   David E. Rudack, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD   P1.53 Impacts of model errors and ensemble initiation on mesoscale ensemble-based data assimilation   Zhiyong Meng, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang   P1.54 Hydrological validation of a numerical simulation of a high-precipitation event in the complex terrain of South-Iceland   Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and G. G. Tómasson and H. Ólafsson   P1.55 Gustiness of downslope winds   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ágústsson and S. Árnason   P1.56 Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation for Rapid Refresh   Dezso Dévényi, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Middlecoff, T. W. Schlatter, and S. S. Weygandt   P1.57 GOES WMSI—progress and developments   Kenneth L. Pryor, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and G. P. Ellrod   P1.58 Forecasting stratospheric clouds   Trausti Jónsson, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson   P1.59 Forecasting snow squalls using mesoscale models   Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. Krajewski   P1.60 Forecasting Heat Waves Using Climatic Anomalies   Kevin Lipton, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm, R. Holmes, P. G. Knight, and J. D. Ross   P1.61 Forecaster training on the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model   Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua   P1.62 A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper—Ocean Depth—Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies (Formerly Paper 6B.5)   Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart and C. A. Clayson   P1.63 Examination of mesoscale convective vortex and Its transition into a frontal cyclone during BAMEX   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   P1.64 moved to Session 11B, New paper number 11B.7A     P1.65 Ensemble data assimilation and information theory   Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, L. Grasso, A. Y. Hou, S. Zhang, and D. Bikos   P1.66 Development of a new radiation scheme for the global atmospheric NWP model   Shigeki Murai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Yabu and H. Kitagawa   P1.67 Daytime boundary layer structure and flows with interacting lake, valley, and urban circulations   Justin A. W. Cox, NOAA/CIRP, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh and C. D. Whiteman   P1.68 Data Assimilation on the NASA fvGCM with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter   Elana Klein, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Li, J. Liu, I. Szunyogh, B. Hunt, E. Kalnay, E. J. Kostelich, and R. Todling   P1.69 Coastal precipitation enhancement due to mesoscale features induced by a landfalling tropical cyclone   Alan F. Srock, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari   P1.70 Cloud-Top Temperatures for Precipitating Winter Clouds   Jay Hanna, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and D. M. Schultz and A. Irving   P1.71 Characteristics of water vapor structure of two cold front systems over central U.S.: High—resolution numerical simulations   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Demoz, X. Li, C. Liu, D. Whiteman, D. D. Turner, and R. M. Hoff   P1.72 Bridging high-resolution model and coarse ensemble system: Hybrid Ensembling   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego   P1.73 Assessment of numerical weather forecasts over SW-Iceland   Thordur Arason, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson   P1.74 Application of Brasseur's gust prediction method   Hálfdán Ágústsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson   P1.75 Combining Phase Error Correction and 3DVAR in Storm—Scale Data Assimilation   Yun Zhou, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. Brewster, M. Hu, and M. Xue   P1.76 Analysis of large forecast errors over Iceland   Haraldur Ólafsson, University of Iceland, IS 150 Reykjavík, Iceland; and T. Arason   P1.77 Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Wind and Temperature Fields in a Mountain Desert Environment   Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Laufenberg   P1.78 An Examination of the Gage-Radar Relationship with respect to Frontal Boundaries   Kevin Brinson, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. R. Legates   P1.79 An evaluation of the land surface-atmosphere interactions over a heterogeneous landscape in numerical mesoscale model   Miliaritiana L. Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, S. Chiao, and J. D. Fuentes   P1.80 A Stochastic Physics Scheme in Representing Model-Related Errors in Global Ensemble Forecast   Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu   P1.81 A new way to initialize operational NWP system for tropical cyclone forecast   Zhongfeng Zhang, Met Division, AirTraffic Management Bureau, Beijing, China; and K. H. Lau   P1.82 A Modeling Study of the Dryline in May 22 during IHOP 2002   Sen Chiao, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph and B. B. Demoz   P1.83 A Kalman Filter Approach to Correct Surface Forecast Bias   William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh   P1.84 A Fully—Implicit Semi—Lagrangian Hydrostatic Model of Atmospheric Dynamics   Sajal K. Kar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD P1.85 A few cases of mountain- and lee waves simulated by the WRF Model   Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker, W. D. Hall, H. M. Hsu, and R. D. Sharman   P1.86 A comparison of the hybrid Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-3D variational analysis scheme (ETKF)—3DVAR and the pure Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) Analysis Schemes   Xuguang Wang, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, J. S. Whitaker, and C. Bishop   P1.87 Examining Severe Weather Events Using Reanalysis Datasets   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and J. D. Ross and P. G. Knight   P1.88 A comparison of prescriptions for using background field diagnostics to adapt covariances to the ambient flow in a 3D Variational assimilation   Manuel De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser, D. F. Parrish, and J. C. Derber   P1.89 Comparison of impacts of WRF dynamic core, physics packages, and initial conditions on warm season rainfall forecasts   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA   P1.90 The Meteorological Role of the Global Positioning System in NOAA's Integrated Upper-Air Observing System   Seth I. Gutman, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and K. Holub, S. Sahm, T. L. Smith, S. Benjamin, D. Birkenheuer, D. Helms, J. Facundo, L. M. McMillin, J. G. Yoe, and J. Daniels   P1.91 NOAA Profiler Network: The Newest Tool in NOAA’s Observing System Architecture for Use in Severe Weather Subjective and Objective Forecasting   Margot H. Ackley, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and D. Helms and P. Wolf   P1.92 Forecasting Heavy Wintertime Precipitation Events in Southern California (Formerly Paper 9.6)   Katherine M. Bell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and F. J. Pereira, N. W. Junker, R. H. Grumm, and R. E. Hart   P1.93 Understanding the effects of complex terrain on Intermountain cyclogenesis (Formerly Paper 9.8)   Gregory L. West, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Shafer and J. Steenburgh   P1.94 The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS): Citizen's Measuring, Mapping and Learning about Precipitation   Henry Reges, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. C. Cifelli and N. J. Doesken   P1.95 The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) - Providing Value-Added Observations to the Meteorological Community   Patricia A. Miller, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. Barth, L. Benjamin, D. Helms, M. Campbell, J. Facundo, and J. O'Sullivan
Tuesday, 2 August 2005
	7:00 AM-8:00 AM, Tuesday Registration Open (Broadcast Meeting Starts)
	8:00 AM-8:30 AM, Tuesday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 6A Hazardous Weather Tools–Satellite, Radar and Mesoscale Networks of Observing Sensors, including Hydrology
CoChair: Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS, Little Roc, AR
8:00 AM 6A.1 Using LDAR II total lightning data in an operational setting: Experiences at WFO Fort Worth TX   Gregory R. Patrick, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and N. W. S. Demetriades 8:15 AM 6A.2 The testing of NSSL multi-sensor applications and data from prototype platforms in NWS forecast operations   Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and T. M. Smith and G. J. Stumpf 8:30 AM 6A.3 The Impact of Simulated GEMS Observations on Regional Weather Forecasts   Joseph G. Dreher, ENSCO, Inc., Melbourne, FL; and J. Manobianco and M. Adams 8:45 AM 6A.4 Reflective storm tops: a satellite method for inferring thunderstorm top microphysical structure   Daniel T. Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and L. Grasso 9:00 AM 6A.5 Quality control of gridded national radar reflectivity data   Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Liang 9:15 AM 6A.6 New radar and severe weather predictive tools   Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and D. R. L. Rainey and M. A. Steinberg 9:30 AM 6A.7 Use of Surface Mesonet Data in the NCEP Regional Gridpoint Statistical-Interpolation (GSI) System   Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Parrish, W. S. Wu, M. Pondeca, D. Keyser, and G. DiMego 9:45 AM 6A.8 Supertyphoon Dale (1996): An impact from the deep tropics to the arctic   Eric P. Kelsey, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
	8:00 AM-9:15 AM, Tuesday, Empire Ballroom Session 6B Tropical Forecasting
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO
8:00 AM 6B.1 Dynamical structures and precipitation distributions of transitioning tropical cyclones in Eastern Canada, 1979–2004   Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum 8:15 AM 6B.2 The tropical transition of Hurricane Alex (2004): Observations and forecast implications   Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery 8:30 AM 6B.3 Synoptic Composites of the Extratropical Transition Lifecycle of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Factors Determining Post-Transition Evolution   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans and C. Evans 8:45 AM 6B.4 Modeling the initialization and tropical transition Hurricane Alex (2004)   R. McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. A. Davis and L. Bosart 9:00 AM 6B.5 Examining planetary, synoptic, and mesoscale features that enhance precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones making landfall over North Carolina (Formerly Poster P1.62)   Meredith S. Croke, UCAR/COMET, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, L. Xie, and K. Keeter
	9:30 AM-10:15 AM, Tuesday, Empire Ballroom Session 6C Hydrometeorology–Flash Floods
CoChair: Ron McTaggart, SUNY, Albany, NY Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO
9:30 AM 6C.1 Forecast tools and considerations for four recent flash floods   Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM 6C.2 The Evolution of a Warm Season Severe Eastern Kentucky Flash Flood   Christina Henry, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood, C. Smallcomb, M. Mclane, and D. Champlin 10:00 AM 6C.3 An assessment of key aspects of warm and cool season severe flash flooding in the Southern Appalachians   William Baldwin, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Empire Ballroom Session 7 The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecast Experiment
CoChair: Nelson Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR/DTC, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 7.1 The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecasting Experiment (DWFE)   Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and L. B. Nance, H. Y. Chuang, A. Loughe, M. Demirtas, S. Koch, and R. Gall 10:45 AM 7.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Verification of DWFE   Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, Y. Lin, A. Loughe, R. L. Gall, S. E. Koch, and J. L. Mahoney 11:00 AM 7.3 An examination of the performance of two high-resolution numerical models for forecasting extended snow bands during the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment   Ed Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and D. Novak 11:15 AM 7.4 Evaluation of high resolution model QPF performance in the complex terrain of the Great Basin as part of the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment   Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and M. Jackson and E. Szoke 7.5 Modeling insights and scientific interactions stimulated by DWFE and DTC   Dave Dempsey, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA; and R. Gall, S. E. Koch, L. R. Bernardet, H. Y. Chuang, M. Demirtas, L. Nance, D. Novak, M. Pyle, N. Seaman, W. Skamarock, E. Szoke, and J. S. Waldstreicher 11:30 AM 7.6 Lessons learned from the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, G. J. DiMego, E. Szoke, J. S. Waldstreicher, P. Manousos, B. N. Meisner, N. Seaman, M. Jackson, R. Graham, A. Edman, and D. Nietfeld
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 8A Mesoscale Observations and Modeling of Winter Weather
CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 8A.1 WSI realtime winter precipitation forecasting using WRF   Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson 1:45 PM 8A.2 Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type   Matthew S. Wandishin, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. L. Mullen, M. E. Baldwin, and J. V. Cortinas 2:00 PM 8A.3 January 29, 2005 ice storms in western North Carolina: a diagnosis using the WRF model   Chris E. Blanton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC 2:15 PM 8A.4 High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations over Iceland for weather forecasting (HRAS)   Ólafur Rögnvaldsson, Universtity of Bergen, Reykjavik, Iceland; and H. Ólafsson, H. Ágústsson, E. M. Einarsson, and Ö. Rögnvaldsson 2:30 PM 8A.5 Examination and verification of temperature-precipitation relationships in the Canadian operational numerical weather prediction models   Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. A. Isaac 2:45 PM 8A.6 An overview of precipitation type forecasting using NAM and SREF data   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
	1:30 PM, Tuesday, Empire Ballroom Session 8B Part 1: Reaching the goals outlined in the first "Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process"
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday, Empire Ballroom Session 9 Terrain Forcing and Mesoscale Aspects of Winter Storms
CoChair: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 9.1 Investigating stability evolution of two winter storms using mobile GAUS data   Larry L. Smith, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. Pettegrew, C. J. Melick, and P. S. Market 3:45 PM 9.2 Improving the forecasting of barrier jets along coastal Alaska using remote sensing, modeling, and a SARJET field study   Nathaniel S. Winstead, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD; and B. A. Colle, J. B. Olson, G. S. Young, K. Loescher, and N. A. Bond 4:00 PM 9.3 High-resolution modeling of the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. banded snowstorm   David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and B. A. Colle and D. Keyser 4:15 PM 9.4 Forecasting Extreme Wintertime Precipitation Events in Northern California   Norman Junker, Retired from NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Grumm, R. Hart, L. F. Bosart, K. M. Bell, and F. J. Pereira 4:30 PM 9.5 Does increasing the resolution of numerical forecasts improve forecast accuracy over fine-scale Intermountain orography?   W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. A. Hart and D. J. Onton 4:45 PM 9.6 Paper moved to Poster Session   5:00 PM 9.7 High resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3   Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Wolfe, J. Steenburgh, D. Kingsmill, J. A. W. Cox, and J. Shafer
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions End for the Day
	5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Tuesday Formal Opening of Exhibits
Wednesday, 3 August 2005
	8:00 AM-8:30 AM, Wednesday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 10A Case Studies
CoChair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA, Offutt AFB, NE Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS, Little Roc, AR
8:00 AM 10A.1 The role of conveyor belts in organizing processes associated with heavy banded snowfall   James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves 8:15 AM 10A.2 Propagating nocturnal convection within a 7-day WRF-model simulation   S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, S. M. Frederick, and J. D. Tuttle 8:30 AM 10A.3 NWP with the Weather Research and Forecast model and local data assimilation as a prelude to “Neighborhood Weather”   Patrick T. Welsh, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL; and J. D. Lambert and P. Bogenschutz 8:45 AM 10A.4 Investigation of stability characteristics of thundersnow events utilizing the growth rate parameter   Christopher J. Melick, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and L. Smith, B. Pettegrew, and P. Market 9:00 AM 10A.5 Analysis of a Texas tornado outbreak involving three modalities of enhanced tornadogenesis   Lon Curtis, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX 9:15 AM 10A.6 Atmospheric Processes Assocoated with Heavy Rainfall During the Extra-Tropical Transitions of Ivan and Frances   Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS, Johnson City, NY; and M. Evans 9:30 AM 10A.7 A case study of a rare severe thunderstorm with snowfall   Brian Pettegrew, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, R. A. Wolf, and P. J. Roebber 9:45 AM 10A.8 Ice clouds in extratropical cyclones   Florian Weidle, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and H. Wernli
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Empire Ballroom Session 10B Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 2: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Forecasters
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:00 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday 1 Exhibits Open
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Ambassador Ballroom Joint Session 1 Joint AMS Panel on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology)
Panelists: Heidi Cullen, The Weather Channel, Boulder, CO; Bryan Hannegan, White House Council on Environmental Quality; Ed Olenic, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University Moderator: Ron McPherson, AMS, Boston, MA
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:15 PM, Wednesday, Ambassador Ballroom Joint Session 2 Environmental Education, Training, and Outreach (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology)
Chair: Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM J2.1 Supporting the broadcast meteorology community through continuing education initiatives   Elizabeth Mulvihill Page, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Fishel 1:45 PM J2.2 Weather impacts on watersheds: development of Web-based curriculum for broadcast meteorologists   Joseph Lamos, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. Owens, M. Kelsch, S. Espinoza, and D. Sliter 2:00 PM J2.3 The Numerical Weather Prediction Professional Development Series (NWP PDS)   William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt 2:15 PM J2.4 Satellite education and training resources for the forecast community: advances in meteorological satellite data and applications   Patrick N. Dills, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and S. Wang 2:30 PM J2.5 COMET Marine and Coastal Meteorology Modules   Kevin Fuell, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Wesley and A. J. Bol 2:45 PM J2.6 COMET ensemble prediction training   William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD 3:00 PM J2.7 COMET® case studies in hydrometeorology training   Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday Exhibits Open
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Ambassador Ballroom Joint Session 3 Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process Part 3: Roles of the Public and Private Sector (Joint between the 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology)
Moderator: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
	5:30 PM, Wednesday Sessions End for the Day
Thursday, 4 August 2005
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 11A Ensembles I
CoChair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET Chair: Maria A. Perone, AER, Lexington, MA
8:00 AM 11A.1 The North American Ensemble Forecast System   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, B. Cui, P. L. Houtekamer, L. J. Wilson, R. Verret, R. Hogue, R. Wobus, D. Unger, E. Olenic, B. A. Gordon, and G. Pellerin 8:15 AM 11A.2 Recent Upgrades to the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System (SREF) and Future Plans   Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth 8:30 AM 11A.3 An Evaluation of Short-Term MOS and Short-Term Ensemble MOS Temperature Forecasts   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA; and R. Holmes and J. Villani 8:45 AM 11A.4 Evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast United States   Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones and J. S. Tongue 9:00 AM 11A.5 COAMPS® ocean ensemble forecast   Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop 9:15 AM 11A.6 An Evaluation of Ensemble MOS Temperature Forecasts from the Medium Range Ensemble Forecast System   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA; and J. Villani and R. Hart 9:30 AM 11A.7 Wind Energy Forecasting Using Time Lagged Ensembles   Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/FSL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz, S. G. Benjamin, and M. Schwartz 9:45 AM 11A.8 An ensemble strategy for road weather applications   Paul Schultz, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
	8:00 AM-10:15 AM, Thursday, Empire Ballroom Session 11B Model Verification
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM, Silver Spring, MD
8:00 AM 11B.1 Verification over the western United States of surface temperature forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database   David T. Myrick, University of Utah and NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel 8:15 AM 11B.2 University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble system post-processing and verification   Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass 8:30 AM 11B.3 The Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics   Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Baars 8:45 AM 11B.4 Objective verification of high-resolution WRF forecasts during 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program   Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore 9:00 AM 11B.5 Object-based verification approaches for NWP   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, D. L. Rife, and R. Bullock 9:15 AM 11B.6 Comparison of sea–level pressure errors between the U.S. East and West Coasts during the cool seasons of 2000–2005   Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Curley, B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass 11B.7 An evaluation of the impacts of grid resolution on the verification of aviation weather forecasts   Michael B. Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and A. Takacs 9:30 AM 11B.7A Ensemble forecast and verification of low level wind shear by the NCEP SREF system (Formerly Poster P1.64)   Binbin Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu 9:45 AM 11B.8 Verification of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over Germany   Marcus Paulat, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and C. Frei, M. Hagen, and H. Wernli
	10:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday 1 Exhibits Open
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Empire Ballroom Session 12A Forecasting Challenges in the Urban Enrivonment
Chair: John V. Cortinas, Jr., NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD
10:30 AM 12A.1 NOAA-EPA’s New National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Transitioning Research to Operations   Paula Davidson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Mathur, J. T. McQueen, R. A. Wayland, N. Seaman, and K. Carey 10:45 AM 12A.2 Update to and Recent Performance of the NAM-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast Model at NCEP operations   Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and P. C. Lee, M. Tsidulko, G. DiMego, T. Otte, J. Pleim, G. Pouliout, J. Young, D. Kang, P. M. Davidson, and N. Seaman 11:00 AM 12A.3 Planetary Boundary Layer height and surface ozone verification in the NOAA/EPA Air Quality Forecast System   Marina Tsidulko, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego, M. Ek, J. McQueen, P. Lee, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. Otte, G. A. Pouliot, D. Wong, J. Young, K. Schere, P. Davidson, N. Seaman, and M. Schenk 11:15 AM 12A.4 Aerosol forecast by Eta-CMAQ for the poor air quality episode in early February 2005   Pius Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, R. Mathur, M. Tsidulko, S. Kondragunta, J. Pleim, D. Kang, H. M. Lin, T. L. Otte, J. O. Young, G. Pouliot, G. DiMego, K. Schere, P. Davidson, and N. Seaman 11:30 AM 12A.5 Perth, Western Australia wildfires of January 2005: Meteorological challenges of fire control and smoke plume predicition in a forest - urban environment   Bruce William Buckley, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, West Perth, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and G. Reader 11:45 AM 12A.6 Storm surge modeling for the New York City metropolitan region   Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. J. Bowman, R. E. Wilson, R. Flood, D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto, Y. Zheng, R. Hunter, and C. Mirchel
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 12B Ensembles II
CoChair: Maria A. Perone, AER, Lexington, MA Chair: William Bua, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 12B.1 Treatment of model error through ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation   Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon 10:45 AM 12B.2 Statistical Post-processing of Operational & CDC Hindcast Ensembles   Bo Cui, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard 11:00 AM 12B.3 Probabilistic evaluation of MCV dynamics and predictability through ensemble forecasting   Dan Hawblitzel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang 11:15 AM 12B.4 Hybrid dynamical-analog ensembles for forecasts with late medium-range lead times   Justin G. McLay, National Research Council/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. H. Bishop 11:30 AM 12B.5 Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS model   Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill 12B.6 Regional scale ensemble prediction in the Mediterranean   Vassiliki Kotroni, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece; and K. Lagouvardos
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday Luncheon–Joint–Speaker Bob Ryan
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 13A Data Assimilation I
Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM 13A.1 Assimilation of simulated network radar data of varied storm types using EnSRF for convective storm analyses and forecasts   Elaine S. Godfrey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Tong, M. Xue, and K. Droegemeier 1:45 PM 13A.2 Impact of Configurations of Rapid Intermittent Assimilation of WSR-88D Radar Data for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Thunderstorm Case   Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 2:00 PM 13A.3 Assimilation of polarimetric radar data using ensemble Kalman filter:Experiments with simulated data   Youngsun Jung, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and J. M. Straka 2:15 PM 13A.4 Analysis and Impact of Super-obbed Doppler Radial Velocity in the NCEP Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis System   Shun Liu, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, J. Gao, and D. Parrish 2:30 PM 13A.5 Application of Doppler Radar Data Assimilation on the Retrieval of a Mei-yu Front within the Taiwan Strait Associated with a Heavy Rain Event   Hsi-Chyi Yeh, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 2:45 PM 13A.6 Radar Data Assimilation in a Regional Model of KMA   Duk-Jin Won, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and E. H. Lim and Q. Xiao
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Empire Ballroom Session 13B Statistical Modeling
Chair: Tom Dulong, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 13B.1 Using geographic information systems to develop gridded model output statistics   Kari L. Sheets, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco and K. K. Hughes 1:45 PM 13B.2 Toward a gridded MOS system   J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn 2:00 PM 13B.3 Improving probabilistic QPF with reforecasts   Thomas M. Hamill, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker 2:15 PM 13B.4 GFS-based MOS wind forecast guidance for islands in the tropical western Pacific Ocean   James C. Su, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 2:30 PM 13B.5 An overview of the redeveloped Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for short-range forecasting   Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 2:45 PM 13B.6 A Summary of Ceiling Height and Total Sky Cover Short-Term Statistical Forecasts in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)   Mitchell Weiss, WYLE Information Systems, Inc., McLean, VA; and J. E. Ghirardelli
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Thursday 1 Exhibits Open
	3:30 PM-4:30 PM, Thursday, Empire Ballroom Session 14A Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques I
CoChair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA, Offutt AFB, NE
3:30 PM 14A.1 Towards an operational 1km model   Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and N. M. Roberts 3:45 PM 14A.2 The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002   Jeremy S. Grams, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Gallus, S. E. Koch, L. S. Wharton, A. Loughe, and E. E. Ebert 4:00 PM 14A.3 Potential vorticity as a tool for assessing dynamical impacts of latent heat release in model forecasts   Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and K. M. Mahoney 4:15 PM 14A.4 Objective methods for monitoring Indian Summer Monsoon using NWP products   Vijapurapu S. Prasad, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Hayashi 4:30 PM 14A.5 Grid-Based Removal of Systematic Model Bias   Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed and G. Wedam 4:45 PM 14A.6 Forecasting hail size by combining a NWP model with a hail growth model   Gerhard W. Reuter, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and J. C. Brimelow, R. Goodson, and T. W. Krauss 14A.7 Climatological aspects of observed and simulated precipitation entities   Michael P. Kay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and E. E. Ebert 5:00 PM 14A.8 A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Thompson, S. Wang, and C. S. Liou
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 14B Data Assimilation II
Chair: John V. Cortinas, Jr., NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD
3:30 PM 14B.1 Variational assimilation in a propotype limited area model   Pierre Bernardet, CNRM, Toulouse, France 3:45 PM 14B.2 Progress in Assimilation of Lightning Data into a Mesoscale NWP Model   Antti T. Pessi, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger and T. Cherubini 4:00 PM 14B.3 Evaluation of the operational 4D-Var at the Meteorological Service of Canada   Stephane Laroche, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Gauthier, M. Tanguay, S. Pellerin, and J. Morneau 4:15 PM 14B.4 High-resolution coupled land data assimilation in a mesoscale real-time forecast system   Andrea N. Hahmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, F. Chen, K. Manning, and T. Warner 4:30 PM 14B.5 Direct Assimilation of Satellite Cloudy Radiances with a 3D-VAR System   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 4:45 PM 14B.6 Retrieval of Moisture from GPS Slant-path Water Vapor Observations using 3DVAR with Isotropic and Anisotropic Recursive Filters   Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, R. J. Purser, and D. Parrish 5:00 PM 14B.7 Multi-Spectral Classification of Hydrometeors Using AMSU-B Data   Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran 5:15 PM 14B.8 Qualitative Evaluation of the KMA Regional Model Mixing-Depth Prediction Using Wind-Profiler Signal-to-Noise-Ratio Data   Seung-Jae Lee, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. D. Yoo and H. Kawai
	5:30 PM, Thursday Sessions End for the Day
Friday, 5 August 2005
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Empire Ballroom Session 15A Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques II
Chair: Michael Sestak, USN/FNMOC, Monterey, CA
8:00 AM 15A.1 Observing system simulation experiments at NCEP   Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, JCSDA, and Wyle, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Woollen, R. Treadon, J. F. LeMarshall, S. Lord, Z. Toth, and G. D. Emmitt 8:15 AM 15A.2 High Resolution Global Model of KMA- Preliminary Results   Hae-Jin Lee, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H. Park, Y. S. Lee, H. D. Yoo, and W. J. Lee 8:30 AM 15A.3 From global to meso scales with a unified model   Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black 8:45 AM 15A.4 Enhancements to a Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis Scheme   Eric M. Kemp, Northrop Grumman IT TASC, Chantilly, Virginia; and R. Alliss 9:00 AM 15A.5 Flow-Dependent Bias correction to the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting system   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Mcqueen, G. Dimego, and B. Zhou 9:15 AM 15A.6 Data Assimilation as Synchronization of Truth and Model: Experiments with the Three-Variable Lorenz System   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Baker, G. Nagpal, E. Kalnay, K. Cordes, M. Huff, E. Okereke, J. Villafae, and G. S. Duane 9:30 AM 15A.7 Bred vectors and forecast error in the NASA coupled general circulation model   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, M. Cai, and M. Rienecker 9:45 AM 15A.8 A bi-cylindrical "Yin-Yang" global grid geometry applied to the NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model   R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD; and Z. I. Janjic and T. L. Black
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 15B Data Assimilation III
Chair: Jennifer C. Roman, USAF/AFWA, Offutt AFB, NE
8:00 AM 15B.1 A comparison of sea level pressure analyses derived from QuikSCAT winds to manual surface analyses produced in the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center   Joan M. Von Ahn, STG, Inc. and NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. M. Sienkiewicz and J. Patoux 8:15 AM 15B.2 The "Chromatic Hexad" method for adaptive anisotropic covariance synthesis   R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD 8:30 AM 15B.3 Real-time ensemble data assimilation at the University of Washington   Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim 8:45 AM 15B.4 Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis   Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn 15B.5 Impact of data density in ensemble filters and smoothers   Milija Zupanski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. Zupanski and M. DeMaria 9:00 AM 15B.6 Impact of model error and imperfect initial condition perturbations on ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: UNPREDICTABLE SPOTS   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 9:15 AM 15B.7 A sequential variational analysis approach for mesoscale data assimilation   Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Koch, J. A. McGinley, S. Albers, and N. Wang 9:30 AM 15B.8 Adaptive estimation of background and observation error statistics in variational data assimilation   Zhuo Liu, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Buehner and P. Gauthier
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Friday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Empire Ballroom Session 16A Numerical Weather Prediction Tools and Techniques III
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS, Little Roc, AR
10:30 AM 16A.1 Fully explicit real-time WRF forecasts of Frances, Ivan and Jeanne (2004)   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and G. J. Holland 10:45 AM 16A.2 Ongoing experiments to improve cloud and precipitation forecasts from the WRF NMM modeling system   Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, and H. Y. Chuang 11:00 AM 16A.3 High-resolution winter-season NWP: Preliminary evaluation of the WRF ARW and NMM cores in the DWFE forecast experiment   William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dempsey 11:15 AM 16A.4 High resolution applications of the WRF NMM   Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, H. Y. Chuang, and G. DiMego 11:30 AM 16A.5 A comparison of WRF forecasts made using differing sources for initial and boundary conditions   Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos 11:45 AM 16A.6 The hurricane WRF-ARW modeling system: Tests results for the nested automatic hurricane tracking implementation   Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Michalakes, D. Gill, W. Skamarock, W. Wang, and J. Cangialosi
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Ambassador Ballroom Session 16B Model Parameterization
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/OFCM, Silver Spring, MD
10:30 AM 16B.1 Well-mixed atmospheric boundary layers in the MM5 and WRF models   Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA 10:45 AM 16B.2 The influence of convective parameterization on model forecasts of an East Coast cyclone   Kelly M. Mahoney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 11:00 AM 16B.3 The impact of different WRF model physical parameterizations and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall   Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, M. Segal, and S. Koch 11:15 AM 16B.4 The impact of convective parameterization on NAM forecasts for the February 25 2005 Winter Storm   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers 11:30 AM 16B.5 Implementation of a mass-flux parameterization of shallow cumulus convection for the NCEP global forecast system   Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan and F. Yang 11:45 AM 16B.6 Applicability of grid-size-dependent Convection Parameterization to meso-gamma-scale HIRLAM   Sami J. A. Niemelä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and C. Fortelius
	12:00 PM, Friday Conference Ends
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Friday Coffee Break

Browse the complete program of The 34th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology/21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction