* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 12 January 2002
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
Sunday, 13 January 2002
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	9:00 AM, Sunday CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
Monday, 14 January 2002
	12:00 AM, Monday Sessions end for the day (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 17 January (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, the The Atlas Symposium, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	9:00 AM, Monday Welcoming Remarks
	9:30 AM-2:44 PM, Monday Session 1 Effective Assimilation of the Vast Observational Datasets Becoming Available
Organizer: Robert Atlas, NASA/DAO, Greenbelt, MD
9:30 AM 1.1 ECMWF Status and Future Research Directions in Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction (Invited Presentation)   Anthony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 10:00 AM 1.2 Recent developments in Data Assimilation at NCEP and Joint Center (Invited Presentation)   Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 10:30 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   11:00 AM 1.3 Assimilation and evaluation of satellite data at the DAO   Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 11:15 AM 1.4 The developing infrastructure for hyperspectral data assimilation at the University of Wisconsin-Madison   John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Posselt 11:30 AM 1.5 The Australian east coast sub-tropical storm of March 8–9, 2001: synoptic analysis and data assimilation experiments at landfall   Lance M. Leslie, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and J. LeMarshall, M. S. Speer, and R. F. Abbey 1.6 On the Strategies for the 4D-Var Assimilation of TOMS Ozone Observation into Atmospheric Models   M. Pondeca, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and X. Zou 11:45 AM Lunch Break   1:15 PM 1.7 Some experiments with a simple dynamical covariance evolution scheme for the assimilation of atmospheric moisture observations   Dick P. Dee, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 1.8 Using ADAS Cloud Analysis to Initialize COAMPS Cloud Fields   Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi, J. Cook, Q. Xu, and L. Wei 1:29 PM 1.9 Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Adjoint Models for the Regional Atmospheric Modeling and Data Assimilation System (RAMDAS)   Thomas J. Greenwald, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. Vukicevic 1.10 Analysis of the singular vectors of the full-physics FSU Global Spectral Model   Zhijin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and I. M. Navon and M. Y. Hussaini 1:44 PM 1.11 Sea Surface Pressure Fields From NASA’s Seawinds Scatterometer and their Impact on NWP   Shannon R. Davis, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, R. Atlas, J. Ardizzone, E. Brin, J. J. O'Brien, and D. F. Zierden 1:59 PM 1.12 Recent Developments in DAO's Finite-volume Data Assimilation System   Arlindo M. da Silva, NASA//GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD; and S. J. Lin, D. Dee, J. Joiner, D. Frank, and P. Norris 2:14 PM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday Poster Session 1 Effective Assimilation of the Vast Observational Datasets Becoming Available
P1.1 Utility of including precipitable water data for tropical wave wind regression analysis   Paul E. Roundy, Penn State University, University Park, PA   P1.2 Multivariate assimilation of SST, sea level and currents for tropical Pacific Ocean   Eric Hackert, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Ballabrera and A. Busalacchi   P1.3 Using 4d-Var to assimilate satellite data into MM5 Hurricane Floyd simulations   Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. Tenerelli, and R. Foster   P1.4 Improving the incorporation of polar satellite passive microwave precipitation estimates into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System   Robert J. Kuligowski, NOAA/ORA, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Treadon, W. Chen, and R. R. Ferraro   P1.5 MADIS: The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System   Michael F. Barth, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and P. A. Miller and A. E. MacDonald   P1.6 Upper-Level Wind Retrievals Using the Satellite Surface Wind and Temperature Soundings   Cheng-Zhi Zou, NOAA/ORA, Camp Springs, MD   P1.7 The impact of Assimilating ACARS data on the performance of a real-time FDDA weather analysis and forecasting system   Rong-Shyang Sheu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, and L. Carson   P1.8 Dynamic Adjustment within an Idealized Numerically-Simulated Bow Echo: Implications for Data Assimilation   Ernani L. Nascimento, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier   P1.9 Assimilation of IRS-P4 (Oceansat-I) Meteorological Data in the NCMRWF Data Assimilation System   Rupa Kamineni, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India; and K. Sarat chandra, R. Riffat, P. Rajendra, and M. Uma   P1.10 GEOS-Terra Data Assimilation System Data at the Goddard Earth Sciences DISC/DAAC   Sunmi Cho, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. Phelps, J. Qin, and G. Serafino   P1.11 New Approach Of Dynamic Data Modeling and Its Application to Precipitation Forecasting   XiaoJing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China   P1.12 1D Variational assimilation of cloud- and land-affected TOVS/ATOVS level 1b data and preparation for AIRS   Joanna Joiner, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. da Silva and D. Frank   P1.13 Impact of covariance modeling and data selection on assimilated ozone   Ivanka Stajner, NASA/GSFC and GSC/SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Rood and N. Winslow   P1.14 Vertical relative humidity profile estimation from VIRS and TMI on board TRMM   Toshiro Inoue, MRI/JMA, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
Tuesday, 15 January 2002
	8:30 AM-2:00 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 1 Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)
Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AM J1.1 Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)   David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 8:45 AM J1.2 Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)   T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford 9:00 AM J1.3 Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder 9:15 AM J1.4 Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP   M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du 9:30 AM J1.5 Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use   Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson 9:45 AM J1.6 The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF EPS   Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza 10:00 AM Coffee Break in Poster Session Room   10:30 AM J1.7 Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction   Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico 10:45 AM J1.8 Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus 11:00 AM J1.9 Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond 11:15 AM J1.10 A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes   Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop 11:30 AM J1.11 Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model   Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 11:45 AM J1.12 Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts   Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop 12:00 PM Grand Poster Luncheon
	8:30 AM-9:46 AM, Tuesday Session 2 observing systems forecast impact experiments
Organizer: Anthony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, Reading, Berks. United Kingdom
8:30 AM 2.1 Observing Systems Forecast Impact Experiments at DAO   Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD 9:00 AM 2.2 The impact of five remotely sensed and five in-situ data types in the Eta Data Assimilation System   Tom H. Zapotocny, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. P. Menzel, J. P. Nelson, and J. A. Jung 9:15 AM 2.3 Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Winds   Andrew V. Tangborn, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Menard and D. Ortland 9:30 AM 2.4 EFFECTIVE ROUTINE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS IN A T21L3 QG MODEL   Craig H. Bishop, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds 9:45 AM 2.5 Paper has been moved to session 7, new paper number 7.8
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday Poster Session 2 Observing Systems Forecast Impact Experiments
P2.1 Assigning water vapor wind heights by weighting functions   William H. Raymond, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. S. Wade   P2.2 Data Assimilation and Weather Regimes in a Three-Level Quasi-Geostrophic Model   D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Ghil, K. Ide, and R. Todling P2.3 Mesoscale model forecast sensitivity to varying data assimilation methods   Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller   P2.4 AIRS Data Support at the GES-DISC/DAAC   Liguang Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Qin and G. Serafino   P2.5 A regional comparison of GPS atmospheric moisture measurements at Plymouth and Bartlett, New Hampshire   Derek W. Brown, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and S. J. Clarke and J. Zabransky   P2.6 On Quality Control Procedures Being Adopted for TRMM LBA and KWAJEX Soundings Data Sets   Biswadev Roy, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson
	2:00 PM-5:14 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 1 Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Organizer: Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA
2:00 PM J1.13 Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)   Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 2:15 PM J1.14 Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers J1.15 Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast   Dingchen Hou, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and S. R. Hanna 2:29 PM J1.16 Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities   Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 2:44 PM J1.17 Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory   Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake 2:59 PM J1.18 How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?   Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth 3:14 PM J1.19 Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest   Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass 3:29 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   3:59 PM J1.20 Ensemble canonical correlation prediction of seasonal precipitation over the United States: raising the bar for dynamical model forecasts   William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim and S. S. P. Shen 4:14 PM J1.21 Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM   Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet 4:29 PM J1.22 Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems   Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd 4:44 PM J1.23 The value of perfection   James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest 4:59 PM J1.24 The Kalman-LÉvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and LÉvy law noises   Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette
	3:00 PM-7:30 PM, Tuesday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday Joint Session 2 Joint Session with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and the 16th Conference on Hydrology)
Organizer: To be announced
4:00 PM J2.1 Another Statistical Look at LDAS Soil Moisture Fields   John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and Q. Duan, K. E. Mitchell, P. R. Houser, E. F. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, B. Cosgrove, D. Lohmann, R. Pinker, A. Roback, J. Sheffield, and D. Tarpley 4:15 PM J2.2 NCEP Regional Reanalysis   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, E. Kalnay, P. Shafran, E. Berbery, W. Collins, W. Ebisuzaki, R. W. Higgins, J. Huang, Y. Lin, K. E. Mitchell, D. Parrish, and E. Rogers 4:30 PM J2.3 Evaluation of Colorado River Basin Ensemble Streamflow Predictions   Kristie J. Franz, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and H. C. Hartmann, S. Sorooshian, and R. Bales 4:45 PM J2.4 Improving land surface modeling with data assimilation of TRMM data   Jared K. Entin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, J. P. Walker, and E. Burke 5:00 PM J2.5 Real-time and Retrospective Simulations of Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model in LDAS   Qingyun Duan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Lohmann, J. C. Schaake, and K. E. Mitchell 5:15 PM J2.6 A spatial data mining approach for verification and understanding of ensemble precipitation forecasting   Xuechao Yu, NOAA/NWS and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, L. Yang, and L. Gruenwald
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday Session 3 Emerging role of data assimilation in the oceans, land surface, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and the water cycle: Part I
Organizer: Franco Einaudi, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
4:00 PM 3.1 Recent experience with practical ocean data assimilation   Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and C. Wunsch, D. Behringer, and M. M. Rienecker 4:30 PM 3.2 Understanding the global water and energy cycle through assimilation of precipitation-related observations: Lessons from TRMM and prospects for GPM   Arthur Y. Hou, NASA/GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Q. Zhang, A. M. da Silva, and J. L. F. Li 4:45 PM 3.3 Assimilation of cloudy radiance measurements using Regional Atmospheric Modeling and Data Assimilation System at CIRA   Tomislava Vukicevic, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, D. Zupanski, and T. Greenwald 5:00 PM 3.4 Data assimilation with a multiscale chemistry-transport forecast model   Blond Nadege, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique/CNRS, Palaiseau, France; and L. Bel and V. Robert 5:15 PM 3.5 Middle atmosphere data assimilation with a climate model   Saroja Polavarapu, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and S. Ren, Y. Rochon, and D. Sankey
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions End for the day
Wednesday, 16 January 2002
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday President's Symposium
	9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
	10:00 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday President's Symposium (Continued)
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday Joint Poster Session 1 Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY
JP1.1 The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings   Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell   JP1.2 10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification   Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX   JP1.3 Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States   Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer   JP1.4 Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?   Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez   JP1.5 Using skill scores to assist assessment of the "Man-MOS-Met Mix" in probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasting   Preston W. Leftwich Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO   JP1.6 Principal component analysis of month-to-month precipitation variability for NCDC California climatic divisions,(1895–6 through 2000–1 seasons)   Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA   JP1.7 Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees   Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord   JP1.8 Summary statistics of precipitation and its anomalies for regions of Virginia from 1900 through 1999   T. Dale Bess, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA   JP1.9 data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events   George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM   JP1.10 A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem   Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller   JP1.11 Annual course of successive 30-days' overall, above normal, and below normal temperature persistence at one-day intervals for four U.S. stations with lengthy histories   Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA   JP1.12 Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model   Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China   JP1.13 A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index   Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg   JP1.14 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE NUMBER OF ASTHMA ATTACKS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE CITY OF BITOLA-MACEDONIA   Blagojce Mickovski, NOAA/NWS, Bitola, Macedonia; and Z. Nakeski   JP1.15 Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures   Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan   JP1.16 Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts   William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov   JP1.17 Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction   Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS   JP1.18 Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts   Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel   JP1.19 Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application   Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor   JP1.20 Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX   James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh   JP1.21 A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes   Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop   JP1.22 Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth JP1.23 Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models   Paul A. Nutter, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK   JP1.24 Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system   Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg   JP1.25 Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors   Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan   JP1.26 Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting   John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles   JP1.27 Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction   Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu   JP1.28 Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts   Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA   JP1.29 Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting   Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart   JP1.30 Linear and Nonlinear Perspectives of Forecast Error Estimate Using the First Passage Time (Formerly Paper 5.6 in the Observations Program)   Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov
	1:30 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday Joint Session 7 Joint session with the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Organizer: William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
1:30 PM J7.1 Potential Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and W. Stern, C. Jones, and W. K. M. Lau 1:45 PM J7.2 Persistent locally coupled anomalies in the ocean-atmosphere   Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay and M. Cai 2:00 PM J7.3 Inter-decadal storm track variations as seen in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and radiosonde observations   Nili Harnik, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. K. M. Chang 2:15 PM J7.4 Surface turbulent heat fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean synthesized from satellite measurements and NWP model analyses   Bomin Sun, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and L. Yu and R. A. Weller 2:30 PM J7.5 Feasibility of reanalysis before the radiosonde era   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and P. D. Sardeshmukh 2:45 PM J7.6 Long-lead wintertime potential predictability:an assessment from NCEP's climate model   Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD 3:00 PM J7.7 Design of the framework of high-resolution global atmospheric models   Bin Wang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 3:15 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday Poster Session 3 Emerging role of data assimilation in the oceans, land surface, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and the water cycle
P3.1 An overview of a mesoscale 4DVAR data assimilation research model: RAMDAS   Tomislava Vukicevic, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, D. Zupanski, T. Greenwald, A. Jones, T. H. Vonder Haar, D. Ojima, and R. Pielke   P3.2 Data assimilation in eddy-resolving ocean circulation models   Steve Meacham, NSF, Arlington, VA   P3.3 Monitoring of ozone observations through data assimilation   Ivanka Stajner, NASA/GSFC and SAIC/GSC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Rood and N. Winslow   P3.4 Multivariate forecast error covariances for an ocean model estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation   Anna Borovikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. M. Rienecker   P3.5 An Empirical Assessment of Meteorological Factors Associated with Lightning Episodes in the Carolina Piedmont   Jamie K. Arnold, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and W. Martin   P3.6 Surface Temperature Assimilation in the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)   Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD; and J. D. Radakovich, A. da Silva, and P. R. Houser   P3.7 Toward assimilation of cloud fields from radar data into mesoscale models   Angela Benedetti, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. Vukicevic and G. L. Stephens   P3.8 Tropospheric data assimilation of CO and O3   Richard Menard, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Kaminski and J. McConnell   P3.9 Developing a blended continental snow cover dataset   David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ   P3.10 Impact of assimilation of surface winds on numerical prediction of tropical cyclones   Mukul Tewari, IBM, India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and M. S. Santhanam and A. Sarkar   P3.11 Snow assimilation in a catchment-based land surface model using the extended Kalman Filter   Chaojiao Sun, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. P. Walker and P. Houser   P3.12 Reduced-rank Kalman filters: I. Application to an idealized model of the wind-driven ocean circulation   Mark Buehner, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Malanotte-Rizzoli
	3:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Fourth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday Session 4 Emerging Role of Data Assimilation in the Oceans, Land Surface, Atmospheric Chemistry, Hydrology and the Water Cycle: Part II
Organizer: Tony J. Busalacchi, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD
3:30 PM 4.1 The Global Land Data Assimilation System   Paul R. Houser, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 4.2 Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Northern Gulf Coast Land/Sea Breeze   William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and K. Blackwell, R. Suggs, R. T. McNider, G. Jedlovec, and S. Kimball 3:45 PM 4.3 Assimilation in Land Surface Hydrology: A General Theory   Venkataraman Lakshmi, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 4:00 PM 4.4 Reduced-rank Kalman filters: II. Assimilation of Topex-Poseidon altimetry data into a realistic OGCM of the tropical Atlantic   Mark Buehner, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, T. Inui, and A. Busalacchi 4:15 PM 4.5 The importance of salinity in the assimilation of temperature observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean   Alberto Troccoli, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker 4:30 PM 4.6 Advective pathways determined from a CUPOM of the Gulf of Mexico   M. Toner, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and A. D. Kirwan, Jr., L. Kuznetsov, A. C. Poje, C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kantha, and J. Choi 4:45 PM 4.7 Pacific and Indian Ocean circulation during 1993–2000: Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon data into a near global OGCM   I. Fukumori, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and T. Lee, B. Tang, B. Cheng, D. Menemenlis, Z. Xing, and L. -. L. Fu 5:00 PM 4.8 Aspects of the Extended and Ensemble Kalman filters for land data assimilation in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project   Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC and University of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster, J. P. Walker, M. M. Rienecker, and P. R. Houser
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday Session 5 other methods for statistical analysis and probabilistic predictions
Organizer: Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
3:30 PM 5.1 Operational calibrated probability forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system - implementation and verification   Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and C. Woolcock, J. C. W. Denholm-Price, and R. J. Darvell 3:45 PM 5.2 Inverse Modeling of a Multiplicative Stochastic System   Cecile Penland, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO 4:00 PM 5.3 Error growth in uncertain systems   Petros J. Ioannou, University of Athens, Athens, Greece; and B. F. Farrell 4:15 PM 5.4 A High Resolution, Local Point Forecast Model   Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg 4:30 PM 5.5 End-to-end ensemble forecasting: Ensemble interpretation in forecasting and risk management   Mark S. Roulston, Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and L. A. Smith 4:44 PM 5.6 Paper has been moved to Joint Poster Session 1, new paper number JP1.30   4:45 PM 5.7 State estimation using reduced rank Kalman filters   Brian F. Farrell, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and P. J. Ioannou 5:00 PM 5.8 Predictability of linear stochastic dynamics   Michael K. Tippett, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and P. Chang
	5:30 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
	6:00 PM, Wednesday Reception (Cash Bar)
Thursday, 17 January 2002
	8:45 AM-1:30 PM, Thursday Session 6 Ensembles and data assimilation
Organizer: Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
8:45 AM 6.1 Application of an ensemble Kalman filter with a dry multi-level primitive-equation model   Herschel L. Mitchell, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and P. L. Houtekamer and G. Pellerin 9:00 AM 6.2 An Ensemble Kalman Smoother for Reanalysis   Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo 6.3 The use of synoptically dependent background error structures and a geostrophic co-ordinate transform in 3D variational data assimilation   Adrian T. Semple, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and I. Roulstone 9:14 AM 6.4 Use of the breeding technique in the estimation of the background covariance matrix for a quasi-geostrophic model   E. Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza, D. J. Patil, E. Ott, J. A. Yorke, B. R. Hunt, I. Szunyogh, and M. Cai 9:29 AM 6.5 Multivariate Assimilation of Altimetry into an Ocean General Circulation Model with Diagnostic Sea-Surface Height Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter   Christian L. Keppenne, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker 9:44 AM 6.6 A local least squares framework for ensemble filtering   Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL and NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:59 AM Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room   10:29 AM 6.7 Spread-skill relationship in the Canadian ensemble prediction system   Richard Verret, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and F. Pithois, L. Lefaivre, P. Houtekamer, L. Wilson, G. Pellerin, and M. Klasa 10:44 AM 6.8 Are Bred Vectors the same as Lyapunov vectors?   Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and M. Cai 10:59 AM 6.9 Estimation of Analysis Error with the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System   Ricardo Todling, NASA/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang, J. Guo, and S. E. Cohn 11:14 AM 6.10 Capabilities of ensemble filters for data assimilation   Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Zhang 11:29 AM 6.11 Tangent Linear and Adjoint of the Kain-Fritsch Moist-Convective Parameterization   Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Bélair 11:44 AM 6.12 Regional data assimilation using a stretched-grid approach and ensemble calculations   Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland and NASA/GSFC/DAO, College Park, MD; and L. L. Takacs and R. C. Govindaraju 11:59 AM Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Thursday Joint Session 3 Joint session with the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems)
Organizer: Kenneth Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks. United Kingdom
1:30 PM J3.1 Automation of visual observations at KNMI; (i) Comparison of present weather   Wiel M. F. Wauben, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands 1:45 PM J3.2 Automation of visual observations at KNMI; (ii) Comparison of automated cloud reports with routine visual observations   Wiel M. F. Wauben, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands 2:00 PM J3.3 Determination of surface and atmospheric parameters under cloudy conditions from AIRS/AMSU/HSB data   Joel Susskind, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. Barnet and J. Blaisdell 2:15 PM J3.4 Determining the “Optimum” Distribution of Cooperative Observer Network Stations to Support the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Modernization Initiative   Stephen A. Del Greco, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. Smith 2:30 PM J3.5 The Effect of Averaging Surface Roughness Values on Coastal Winds for Different Mesocale Model Resolutions   Gueorgui V. Mostovoi, Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick, Y. Li, D. Herndon, N. Tran, and E. Valenti
	1:30 PM-3:45 PM, Thursday Session 7 strategies for adaptive observations
Organizer: Herschell Mitchell, MSC, Dorval, PQ Canada
1:30 PM 7.1 Adaptive observations at NCEP: Past, present, and future   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Spring, MD; and I. Szunyogh, C. H. Bishop, S. J. Majumdar, R. Morss, J. Moskaitis, D. Reynolds, D. Weinbrenner, D. Michaud, N. Surgi, M. Ralph, J. Parrish, J. Talbot, J. Pavone, and S. J. Lord 1:45 PM 7.2 Using Large Member Ensembles to Isolate Local Low Dimensionality of Atmospheric Dynamics   D. J. Patil, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and I. Szunyogh, E. Kalnay, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, and J. A. Yorke 2:00 PM 7.3 On the dynamical basis of targeting weather observations   Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. V. Zimin, D. J. Patil, B. R. Hunt, E. Kalnay, J. A. Yorke, and E. Ott 2:15 PM 7.4 Singular vectors and observation targeting   Martin Leutbecher, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and T. N. Palmer and A. J. Thorpe 2:30 PM 7.5 Optimal Observations for Variational Data Assimilation   Armin G. Koehl, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Stammer 2:45 PM 7.6 Drifter launch strategies based on dynamic Lagrangian templates   M. Toner, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and A. C. Poje, A. D. Kirwan, Jr., and C. K. R. T. Jones 3:00 PM 7.7 Quantifying the impact of observations using ensembles   Brian J. Etherton, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and C. H. Bishop 3:15 PM 7.8 The Role of Observing-System Representativeness Error in the Predictability of Extratropical Weather Events (Formerly paper number 2.5)   Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and M. Leutbecher 3:30 PM Symposium Ends
	3:00 PM-6:30 PM, Thursday Exhibit Hours (Joint between the 11th Symposium on Education, the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, the 16th Conference on Hydrology, the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 18th International Conference on IIPS, the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, and the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications)
	3:15 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	5:00 PM, Thursday Closing Event Begins
	5:00 PM-6:15 PM, Thursday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	6:30 PM-7:30 PM, Thursday Event Presentation
	7:30 PM, Thursday 9 Tropical Party

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