* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 2 May 2004
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 3 May 2004
	7:30 AM, Monday Conference Registration continues Through Friday May 7
	8:30 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Le Jardin Room Session 1A CBLAST I
Chair: Peter Black, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL
8:30 AM 1A.1 An overview of CBLAST flights into Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel (2003)   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 8:45 AM 1A.2 Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling Experiments In Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel (2003)   Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. E. Tenerelli, W. Zhao, and M. A. Donelan 9:00 AM 1A.3 3-D atmospheric boundary layer wind fields from hurricanes Fabian and Isabel   Daniel Esteban Fernandez, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and S. Frasier, J. Carswell, P. Chang, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks 9:15 AM 1A.4 A web application for near real time distribution of tropical cyclone heat potential estimates   Joaquin A. Trinanes, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Goni 9:30 AM 1A.5 Testing global estimates of the tropical cyclone heat potential fields to improve hurricane intensification prediction   Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Trinanes, and P. G. Black 9:45 AM 1A.6 Turbulent flux measurements within a hurricane boundary layer from an instrumented aircraft   Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and P. G. Black 10:00 AM 1A.7 Measurements of humidity fluxes in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel with a modified   William M. Drennan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. A. McCormick and P. Black
	8:30 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Napoleon I Room Session 1B CONVECTION, waves, and precipitation I
Chair: Walter A. Petersen, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL
8:30 AM 1B.1 The generation of intense convection over West Africa during the summer monsoon season.   Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 8:45 AM 1B.2 Mesoscale convective systems over sub-Saharan Africa and the tropical east Atlantic   Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. A. Houze 9:00 AM 1B.3 Two synoptic case studies of tropical squall lines in the Soudanian climate zone of West Africa   Jon M. Schrage, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink 9:15 AM 1B.4 The Significance of African Easterly Waves on Convection   Ademe Mekonnen, SUNY, Albany, NY 9:30 AM 1B.5 Case study of an intense African easterly wave   Gareth J. Berry, SUNY, Albany, NY 9:45 AM 1B.6 Three dimensional structure of easterly wave disturbances over Africa and the tropical North Atlantic   George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and C. D. Thorncroft 10:00 AM 1B.7 Origin and propagation of a disturbance associated with an Africa Easterly wave as precursors of Hurricane Alberto (2000)   Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and K. E. Robertson and C. M. Hill
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Napoleon II Room Session 1C Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Chair: Mark Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao Guam
8:30 AM 1C.1 Tropical Cyclone formation mechanisms in the BMRC Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS)   Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and M. T. Montgomery and N. E. Davidson 8:45 AM 1C.2 Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Using Operational Global Models   Caroline A. Bower, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry 9:00 AM 1C.3 Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis in JMA ensemble prediction system   Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Kyouda and M. Yamaguchi 9:13 AM 1C.4 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.92   9:14 AM 1C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.93   9:15 AM 1C.6 A mesoscale modeling study of the formation of an African disturbance preceding tropical cyclogenesis   Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin 9:30 AM 1C.7 Tropical transition: Tropical cyclone formation from extratropical disturbances   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart
	10:15 AM, Monday Coffee Break
	10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Le Jardin Room Session 2A CBLAST II
Chair: Nick Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:45 AM 2A.1 Surface fluxes at high wind speeds deduced from dense dropwindsonde deployments in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel   William D. Ramstrom, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel 11:00 AM 2A.2 Air-sea momentum flux at high winds   Tetsu Hara, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and S. E. Belcher, I. Ginis, and I. J. Moon 11:15 AM 2A.3 Surface gravity wave measurements in Hurricanes Fabian (2003) and Humberto (2001)   Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. C. Vandemark, S. E. Feuer, P. Black, and F. D. Marks 11:30 AM 2A.4 Effect of ocean waves on air-sea momentum fluxes and hurricane intensity   Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. J. Moon, B. Thomas, and T. Hara 11:45 AM 2A.5 In-situ Measurements of the Air-Sea Interface During Hurricane Fabian   Eric J. Terrill, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla,, CA; and W. K. Melville
	10:45 AM-12:15 PM, Monday, Napoleon I Room Session 2B Convection, waves, and precipitation II
Chair: George Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO
10:45 AM 2B.1 Mean State and Wave Disturbances During Phases I, II, and III of GATE Based on ERA-40   Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and D. G. Vincent, P. M. Reiner, and P. Speth 11:00 AM 2B.2 African dry-air outbreaks   Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang 11:15 AM 2B.3 Origins of African dry-air outbreaks   Phoebe Anne Woodworth, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 11:30 AM 2B.4 The interaction of Afrcian dust and dry-air outbreaks   Xiaoyu Liu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, miami, FL 11:45 AM 2B.5 Analysis of the African Easterly Jet using aircraft observations from the JET2000 experiment   Douglas J. Parker, School of the Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom; and C. D. Thorncroft, R. R. Burton, and A. Diongue 12:00 PM 2B.6 Observations of African easterly waves and MCSs during the JET2000 campaign in August 2000   Chris Thorncroft, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. J. Parker, G. J. Berry, and R. R. Burton
	10:45 AM-12:14 PM, Monday, Napoleon II Room Session 2C Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Chair: Miles B. Lawrence, TPC, Miami, FL
10:45 AM 2C.1 The effects of vertical wind shear on the formation of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001)   Kate Musgrave, UCAR/SOARS and Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and M. T. Montgomery 11:00 AM 2C.2 Relationships between tropical waves and cyclogenesis   William M. Frank, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. E. Roundy 11:15 AM 2C.3 Paradigms of tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific   John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro, K. Lombardo, and C. Schreck 11:30 AM 2C.4 Characteristic Fields associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations   Kevin K. W. Cheung, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry 11:44 AM Paper 2C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.90   11:45 AM 2C.5a Analysis of Operational Model Forecast Trends in Extratropical Transition Storm Structure   Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Arnott 11:59 AM 2C.6 A New Product for Estimating the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation   Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO; and C. W. Anderson, J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell
	12:00 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Monday, Le Jardin Room Session 3A CBLAST III
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 3A.1 Breaking waves in hurricanes Isabel & Fabian   J.M. Kleiss, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and W. K. Melville, J. R. Lasswell, P. Matusov, and E. Terrill 1:45 PM 3A.2 Impacts of breaking waves and Langmuir circulations on the ocean mixed layer in high winds   Peter P. Sullivan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. McWilliams and W. K. Melville 2:00 PM 3A.3 Sea spray droplet measurements in hurricanes Fabian and Isabel   C. W. Fairall, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hare and A. A. Grachev 2:15 PM 3A.4 Impact of Sea Spray Parameterization on Hurricane Development in COAMPS   Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and C. S. Liou 2:30 PM 3A.5 Effects of sea spray in large-eddy simulation of the hurricane boundary layer   Mark Kelly, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. C. Wyngaard and W. Frank
	1:30 PM-3:30 PM, Monday, Napoleon I Room Session 3B Monsoon I
Chair: Chris Thorncroft, SUNY, Albany, NY
1:30 PM 3B.1 Tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in Northwest and West Africa: Part I: Synoptic evolution and climatological relevance   Michael Christoph, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and A. H. Fink and P. Knippertz 1:45 PM 3B.2 Tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in Northwest and West Africa: Part II: Dynamics   Peter Knippertz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. H. Fink and J. E. Martin 3B.3 The simulation of the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon in a AGCM   Serge Janicot, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and G. Blanchon 2:00 PM 3B.3a Experiments on Intraseasonal Prediction Using the NCEP Global Forecast System Coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model   Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang, S. Saha, and H. L. Pan 2:15 PM 3B.4 The intra-seasonal variability of convection in the West African monsoon   Flore Mounier, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and S. Janicot 2:30 PM 3B.5 The influence of the land surface on the dynamics of the West African Monsoon.   R J Ellis, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker and C. M. Taylor 2:45 PM 3B.6 Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales   Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang 3:00 PM 3B.7 An Idealized Approach of the West African Monsoon   Philippe Peyrillé, CNRM, Météo-France, and CNRS, Toulouse, France; and C. Piriou, J. P. Lafore, and J. L. Redelsperger
	1:30 PM-3:15 PM, Monday, Napoleon II Room Session 3C Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Chair: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 3C.1 Prediction of African easterly waves by The FSU Superensemble   Robert S. Ross, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti 1:45 PM 3C.2 Gathering in-situ data using aircraft reconnaissance to investigate incipient tropical cyclogenesis   Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS 2:00 PM 3C.3 The Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico   Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari 2:15 PM 3C.4 Surface evidence of tropical cyclogenesis   Mark A. Bourassa, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Cunningham and P. D. Reasor 2:30 PM 3C.5 GCM simulation of the dynamics of a precursor to Hurricane Alberto over West Africa   Michelle Ann Felton, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker and C. M. Taylor 3C.6 Characteristics on the mesoscale convective systems organized in the process of typhoon formation over the western north Pacific   Kazumasa Mori, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 2:45 PM 3C.7 A statistical model for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic Basin   Christopher C. Hennon, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Napoleon III Room Session 3D Tropical cyclone observations and structure I
Chair: Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corp., Univ. of Guam, Tamuning, Guam
1:30 PM 3D.1 Toward a correction for precipitation scattering effects in satellite-based passive microwave tropical cyclone intensity estimation   Robert S. Wacker, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and G. W. Petty 1:45 PM 3D.2 The NRL tropical cyclone R&D web page upgrades   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. L. Richardson, C. R. Sampson, and J. E. Kent 2:00 PM 3D.3 Satellite-based center-fixing of tropical cyclones: new automated approaches   Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 2:15 PM 3D.4 Public release of a tropical cyclone microwave scatterometer and radiometer data archive   Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and M. Brewer and F. J. Wentz 2:30 PM 3D.5 Dvorak tropical cyclone wind speed biases determined from reconnaissance-based "Best Track" data (1997–2003)   Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin 3D.6 Characterization of hurricane structure using unsupervised classification of passive microwave observations and comparison with cloud resolving simulations   Giulia Panegrossi, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
	3:15 PM, Monday Coffee Break
	3:45 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Le Jardin Room Session 4A Tropical Cyclones and Vertical Shear
Chair: Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
3:45 PM 4A.1 Tropical cyclones in complex vertical shears   Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 4:00 PM 4A.2 The structure and evolution of a hurricane in vertical wind shear: Hurricane Elena (1985)   Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY 4:15 PM 4A.3 Asymmetric eyewall vertical motion in a high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)   Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. T. Montgomery and Z. Pu 4:30 PM 4A.4 The mean structure of vertical velocities and radar reflectivities in the hurricane eyewall as they relate to environmental wind shear   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks, R. F. Rogers, L. K. Shay, B. A. Albrecht, and H. E. Willoughby 4:45 PM 4A.5 The comparative effects of frictional convergence and vertical wind shear on the asymmetries of a hurricane   Hongyan Zhu, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith 5:00 PM 4A.6 Idealised modelling of tropical cyclones in vertical shear: the role of saturated ascent in the inner core   Richard Patra, University of Munich, Munich, Germany 5:15 PM 4A.7 How Much Vertical Shear Can A Well-Developed Tropical Cyclone Resist?   Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. T. Montgomery and B. Wang
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Napoleon I Room Session 4B Monsoon II
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, greenbelt, MD
3:45 PM 4B.1 Radiation budget data sets for monsoon studies   G. Louis Smith, LaRC, Hampton, VA 4:00 PM 4B.2 Recent PACS-SONET observations of relevance to North American Monsoon Experiment   Michael Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Murillo and J. F. Mejia 4:15 PM 4B.3 Extratropical-tropical interaction during onset of the Australian monsoon   Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and K. J. Tory and M. J. Reeder 4:30 PM 4B.4 Numerical investigation of the 2002 monsoon onset   Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. May and J. Cummings 4:45 PM 4B.5 Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau heating and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall   Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and X. Liu 5:00 PM 4B.6 Lag of the atmosphere-land system in the seasonal cycle of monsoons   Brian E. Mapes, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. Liu
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Napoleon II Room Session 4C tropical cyclogenesis IV
Chair: Greg Holland, Aerosonde North America Inc, Boulder, CO
4C.1 The potential vorticity structure of African easterly waves   Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Hoggarth 3:45 PM 4C.2 The Effects of asymmetric Momentum on the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone   Yamei Xu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Wu 4:00 PM 4C.3 Long-term Behavior of the Rotunno-Emanuel Tropical Cyclone Model   Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen 4:15 PM 4C.4 Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Energy Dispersion and Associated Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific   Tim Li, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Fu, X. Ge, B. Wang, Y. Zhu, and Y. Wang 4:30 PM 4C.5 Influence of equatorial Rossby waves on tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific   Kelly Lombardo, SUNY, Albany, NY 4:45 PM 4C.6 A closer look at vortical hot towers in a tropical cyclogenesis environment   Andrea B. Saunders, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Napoleon III Room Session 4D tropical cyclone observations and structure II
Chair: Edward Rappaport, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL
3:45 PM 4D.1 Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithm   Derrick C. Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, K. Brueske, R. Wacker, and B. Kabat 4:00 PM 4D.2 Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis   Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and J. L. Demuth 4D.3 The Double Eyewall and Cycloid-like Track in the Typhoon Dujuan (2003)   Jing-Shan Hong, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and P. L. Chang 4:15 PM 4D.4 Separation of hurricane and environmental winds via single-Doppler radar volumetric data analysis: Results from Hurricanes Bret (1999)   Paul R. Harasti, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program, NRL, Monterey, CA 4:30 PM 4D.5 Multiple eyewall structure of Hurricane Juliette 2001   Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Eastin, C. M. Rozoff, and W. H. Schubert 4:45 PM 4D.6 Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003): A comparison of satellite, radar, and photographic observations   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, J. P. Kossin, W. H. Schubert, C. S. Velden, P. G. Black, R. Zehr, and S. D. Aberson
	6:00 PM, Monday Ice Breaker Reception
Tuesday, 4 May 2004
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Le Jardin Room Session 5A Tropical cyclone Rainfall I
Chair: Stacy R. Stewart, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 5A.1 Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation of landfall typhoons in the Taiwan area   Ben Jong-Dao Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 8:15 AM 5A.2 A Climatological Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan   Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University and National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan 8:30 AM 5A.3 Precipitation processes associated with the landfalling Typhoon Nari (2001)   Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Jhongli City, Taiwan; and H. L. Huang 5A.4 An Introduction to the Short-Range Forecast System for Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Taiwan Area   Shinn-Liang Shieh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and G. J. Jian and J. A. McGinley 8:45 AM 5A.5 The radar rainfall estimate for torrential rain during Typhoon Nair (2001)   Pay-Liam Lin, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and T. C. Wang, W. Y. Chang, and H. H. Lin 9:00 AM 5A.6 The precipitation mechanisms of typhoon Nari(2001) revealed by radar observation   Tai-Chi Chen Wang, National Central Univ., Chung-Li, Taiwan; and P. L. Lin, W. Y. Chang, K. S. Chung, S. H. Lin, and J. H. Teng 9:15 AM 5A.7 Gauging tropical rainfall potential with a blended satellite technique   F. Joseph Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Hawkins
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Tuesday, Napoleon I Room Session 5B CONVECTION, waves, and precipitation III
Chair: Christopher S. Bretherton, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
8:00 AM 5B.1 Variability of convective structure and lightning activity in tropical easterly waves   Walter A. Petersen, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Boccippio 8:15 AM 5B.2 Convective variability across the east Pacific: A comparison of precipitation structure in the TEPPS and EPIC domains   Robert Cifelli, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. Nesbitt, S. A. Rutledge, W. A. Petersen, and S. Yuter 8:30 AM 5B.3 The tropical vertical structure of clouds and precipitation as observed by radar   Paquita Zuidema, CIRES/NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. Lin and C. Fairall 8:45 AM 5B.4 A study on variations of deep-rain properties with the sea surface temperature over the tropics utilizing TRMM PR2a25 and TMI data   Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 9:00 AM 5B.5 Influences of dynamics on convection at the tropical Pacific ARM sites   James H. Mather, PNNL, Richland, WA 9:15 AM 5B.6 Characteristics of oceanic tropical convection at Kwajalein   Jasmine Cetrone, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Tuesday, Napoleon II Room Session 5C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability I: Track
Chair: James M. Gross, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 5C.1 Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Uncertainty   James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA 8:15 AM 5C.2 Testing of a Revised Model Track Prediction Evaluation Expert System   Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and D. P. Roberts 8:30 AM 5C.3 Tropical cyclone forecasting using climatology and NWP output   Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie 8:45 AM 5C.4 Statistical-Dynamical guidance for tropical storm track forecasting   Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and N. A. Samra 8:59 AM Paper 5C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.91   9:00 AM 5C.6 Tropical cyclone ensemble forecast product development and verification at the Met Office   Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and S. Robinson, C. Woolcock, and K. Mylne 9:15 AM 5C.7 Evaluation of a Kilo-Member Ensemble for Track Forecasting   Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Napoleon III Room Session 5D tropical cyclone observations and structure III
Chair: Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
8:00 AM 5D.1 Thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones from aircraft reconnaissance   Kay L. Shelton, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 5D.2 Observational case studies with the Aerosonde robotic aircraft   Jade R Soddell, Innovative Data Solutions, Bendigo, Australia; and K. McGuffie, P. H. Lin, and G. J. Holland 8:15 AM 5D.3 Line Vortex Modelling of the Vortex Characteristics of Hurricane Juan During Approach to Nova Scotia Landfall, Using Wind Data Gathered Inflight   Anthony Peter Brown, National Research Council, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and M. Wolde 8:30 AM 5D.4 Automatic Doppler analysis of three-dimensional wind fields in hurricane eyewalls   John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. S. Griffin, Jr., P. P. Dodge, and N. F. Griffin 8:45 AM 5D.5 Aircraft data from rapidly-moving Hurricane Juan south of Nova Scotia   Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada 9:00 AM 5D.6 A record wind measurement in Hurricane Isabel: Direct evidence of an eyewall mesocyclone?   Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black, M. T. Montgomery, and M. Bell 9:15 AM 5D.7 Development of a wind radii CLIPER model   Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL
	9:45 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday, Le Jardin Room Session 6A tropical cyclone rainfall II
Chair: Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
10:15 AM 6A.1 Classification of tropical oceanic precipitation using high altitude aircraft microwave and electric field measurements   Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Cecil, F. J. LaFontaine, R. Blakeslee, D. Mach, G. M. Heymsfield, and F. D. Marks 10:30 AM 6A.2 Intercomparison of polarimetric radar, profiler and disdrometer observations of tropical precipitation during CAMEX-4/KAMP   Justin T. Walters, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. Kim, K. R. Knupp, C. R. Williams, E. N. Anagnostou, and A. Tokay 6A.3 Precipitation performance of the WRF mesoscale Eulerian mass model during Tropical Storm Henri   Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and P. Ruscher and P. Bogenshutz 10:45 AM 6A.4 Evaulation of rainfall forecasts from the operational GFDL hurricane model   Robert Tuleya, SAIC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Norfolk, VA; and M. DeMaria and R. J. Kuligowski 11:00 AM 6A.5 A comparison of GFDL, GFS and Eta model rainfall forecasts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones for 1998–2003   Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Tuleya and R. Rogers 6A.6 Understanding rainfall asymmetries in tropical cyclones   Manuel Lonfat, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday, Napoleon I Room Session 6B Convection, waves, and precipitation IV
Chair: B. E. Mapes, CIRES, Boulder, CO
10:15 AM 6B.1 Tropical convection and surface wind convergence using spacebased data   W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie 10:30 AM 6B.2 Small-scale variability of rainfall in the tropical and sub-tropical regions   A. K. Varma, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and G. Liu 10:45 AM 6B.3 Convective and Stratiform Rain Variations from TRMM Observations   Song Yang, George Mason University, greenbelt, MD; and K. -. S. Kuo and E. A. Smith 11:00 AM 6B.4 Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data: Comparison of look-up tables   Shoichi Shige, Japan Exploration Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, W. K. Tao, D. E. Johnson, and C. L. Shie 11:15 AM 6B.5 Latent heating retrieval from TRMM observations using a simplified thermodynamic model   Mircea Grecu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. S. Olson 11:30 AM 6B.6 Evaluation of satellite-based latent heating profile estimation methods   William S. Olson, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and M. Grecu, S. Yang, and W. K. Tao
	10:15 AM-11:30 AM, Tuesday, Napoleon II Room Session 6C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability II: Track and Intensity
Chair: James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:15 AM 6C.1 Dropsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the Taiwan region (DOTSTAR): An overview   Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and P. H. Lin, T. C. Yeh, and S. D. Aberson 10:29 AM Paper 6C.2 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.99   10:30 AM 6C.3 Targeting strategies to improve hurricane track forecasts   S. J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson, B. J. Etherton, L. D. Holland, Z. Toth, and C. H. Bishop 10:45 AM 6C.4 Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting   Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. N. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik 11:00 AM 6C.5 Reducing large tropical cyclone forecast errors using high-resolution satellite and radar data   Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, J. F. LeMarshall, and L. Qi 11:15 AM 6C.6 Probabilistic prediction of tropical-cyclone position and intensity   Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday, Napoleon III Room Session 6D tropical cyclone observations and structure IV
Chair: J. F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 6D.1 Retrieval of hydrometeor profiles in tropical cyclones and convection by a combined radar-radiometer algorithm   Haiyan Jiang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser 10:30 AM 6D.2 Observed vortex and thermodynamic structure of Hurricane Isabel at maximum intensity   Michael M. Bell, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, M. L. Black, and S. D. Aberson 10:45 AM 6D.3 Boundary Layer Wind Profiles in Hurricane Fabian   Mark P. Guishard, Penn State University, University Park, PA 11:00 AM 6D.4 Hurricane's evolution and latent heating profile structure   Corinne Burlaud, CETP, Velizy, France; and N. Viltard 11:15 AM 6D.5 Atmospheric water vapor and tropical cyclone intensity changes   Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 11:30 AM 6D.6 A Numerical Investigation of Slabular Convection and Moist Absolute Instability in Hurricane Isabel   Jeremy D. Ross, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and R. James, C. Hosler, J. M. Fritsch, and G. Bryan
	11:45 AM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Le Jardin Room Session 7A 30 years of the Dvorak technique: Part I
Chair: Christopher Velden, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, WI
1:30 PM 7A.1 The early days of the Dvorak Technique at the National Hurricane Center   Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL 1:45 PM 7A.2 Tropical cyclone intensity estimates using satellite data: the early years.   Frank H. Wells, NOAA/NWSFO, Barrigada, Guam 2:00 PM 7A.3 The longivity of the Dvorak TC intensity technique in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions   Charles Guard, NOAA/NWSFO, Tiyan, Guam 2:15 PM 7A.4 The Dvorak technique through time   John L. Beven II, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL 2:30 PM 7A.5 Monsoon depressions, monsoon gyres, midget tropical cyclones, TUTT cells, and high intensity after recurvature: Lessons learned from the use of Dvorak’s techniques in the world’s most prolific tropical-cyclone basin.   Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam 2:45 PM Discussion
	1:30 PM-3:15 PM, Tuesday, Napoleon I Room Session 7B intraseasonal variability I
Chair: Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbounre, Vic Australia
1:30 PM 7B.1 Influence of Indian Ocean dipole on atmospheric subseasonal variability   Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and W. Han 1:45 PM 7B.2 On the simulation of the intraseasonal variance of the south American summer Monsoon   Vasubandhu Misra, COLA, Calverton, MD 2:00 PM 7B.3 Diagnosis and forecasting of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian Ocean and the West Tropical Pacific   Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 2:15 PM 7B.4 The Study of Linear Relationship of Ganges-Brahmaputra River Discharge and Tropical SST   Jun Jian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 2:30 PM 7B.5 Tropical intraseasonal oscillations simulated in the U. Hawaii CGCM   Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 2:45 PM 7B.6 Origin of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation   B. Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. J. Webster and H. Teng 3:00 PM 7B.7 Theory for the formation of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in the western Indian Ocean   Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and B. Wang
	3:15 PM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	3:45 PM-4:55 PM, Tuesday, Le Jardin Room Session 8A 30 years of the dvorak technique: Part II
Chair: Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
3:45 PM 8A.1 Globalisation, calibration and opportunities for future enhancement of the Dvorak technique   Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia 4:00 PM 8A.2 Uses of microwave imagery as a supplement to the Dvorak technique, an integrated technique   Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam 4:15 PM 8A.3 The Objective Dvorak Technique—historical perspective   Raymond Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO 4:30 PM 8A.4 The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)—Continuing the Journey   Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 4:45 PM 8A.11A Concluding Remarks by Lixion A. Avila
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday, Napoleon I Room Session 8B Intraseasonal variability II
Chair: David J. Raymond, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, DF Mexico
3:45 PM 8B.1 Climatological spatial and temporal features of the Madden-Julian oscillation   Wen-wen Tung, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis 4:00 PM 8B.2 A comparison of the convective and heating structures in Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and G. N. Kiladis and P. T. Haertel 4:15 PM 8B.3 A New Multi-Scale Model for the Tropical Intra-seasonal Oscillation   Andrew Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and J. Biello 4:30 PM 8B.4 Ocean-atmosphere interaction and intraseasonal oscillations in the modified NCAR CAM2.0.1 coupled to slab oceans of varying depths   Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel 8B.5 Suppressed phases in tropical intraseasonal variability: Modeling of preconditioning   Judith A. Curry, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 4:45 PM 8B.6 Pursuing realistic intra-seasonal wave modes using a novel approach to convective parameterization   Richard B. Neale, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Mapes
Wednesday, 5 May 2004
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Le Jardin Room Session 9 Advances in hurricane forecasting and research during the past 50 years
Chair: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 9.1 A personal view of the progress in tropical meteorology over the last 50 years   William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 8:15 AM 9.2 50 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Modeling   Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO 8:30 AM 9.3 The P-3 Era of Airborne Hurricane Research   Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Maimi, FL 8:45 AM 9.4 The G-IV Surveillance Era, Targeting, and Ensemble Forecasts (1997–Present)   Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 9:00 AM Discussion
	9:45 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Le Jardin Room Session 10A Tropical Cyclones and Climate
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 10A.1 Verification of the OCSI Atlantic Hurricane Predictions Since 1985   Jill F. Hasling, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. C. Freeman 10:30 AM 10A.2 Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system   Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. S. Nolan 10:45 AM 10A.3 Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization   Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya 11:00 AM 10A.4 Climate Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activities in Western North Pacific Ocean   Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and M. Ying and Q. Yang 11:15 AM 10A.5 Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Intensity from an Observational Perspective   Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and K. S. Liu 11:30 AM 10A.6 Florida hurricane decline linked to surface warming   James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger 11:45 AM 10A.7 Cluster analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks   Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, and P. Smyth
	10:15 AM-11:30 AM, Wednesday, Napoleon I Room Session 11B interannual variablity II (Note new session start time from the original published program)
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
10:15 AM 11B.1 Establishment of the low-level wind anomalies over the western North Pacific during ENSO development   Chia Chou, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 10:30 AM 11B.2 A consolidated CLIPER model for improved August-September ENSO prediction skill   Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders and P. Rockett 10:45 AM 11B.3 August–September ENSO prediction skill 1959–2001: a comparison between four state-of-the-art seasonal models   Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders and B. Lloyd-Hughes 11:00 AM 11B.4 Interannual variability of tropical cyclone frequencies implied from an ensemble climate simulation with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model   Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and H. Hatsushika and H. Kitabata 11:15 AM 11B.5 Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks over West Africa and their relationship with Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity   Susanna Hopsch, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday, Napoleon II Room Session 10C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability III: Operational Models
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 10C.1 Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part I.   Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, Q. Liu, H. L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, I. Ginis, A. Falkovich, and W. Shen 10:30 AM 10C.2 Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part II.   Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, H. L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, and W. Shen 10:45 AM 10C.3 A Summary of Ugrades to the Operational GFDL Hurricane Model for 2003   Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. E. Tuleya, and H. L. Pan 11:00 AM 10C.4 An examination of hurricane Debby (2000) with the 2000 and 2003 versions of the GFDL hurricane prediction system   Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. D. Knabb and M. A. Bender 11:15 AM 10C.5 Recent Improvements to Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast   Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin 11:30 AM 10C.6 An analysis of operational numerical weather forecasting errors for the landfall of Hurricane Juan (2003)   John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. J. McTaggart-Cowan
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday, Napoleon III Room Session 10D tropical cyclone observations and structure V
Chair: Paul R. Harasti, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program at NRL, Monterey, CA
10D.1 Turbulence structure in Tropical Cyclones   Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and M. D. Powell 10D.2 Tropical cyclone precursors: Structure and variability of African easterly waves   Kerry H. Cook, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and C. M. DiRosario 10:15 AM 10D.3 The formation of concentric vorticity structures in typhoons   H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. P. Chang and R. T. Williams 10:30 AM 10D.4 The Dynamic Characteristics of Typhoon Vortex Spiral Wave and its Transportation: Diagnostic Analyses   Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, P. R. China, China; and S. Zhang, L. Chen, and F. Wei 10:45 AM 10D.5 The climatology of hurricane wind profiles   Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and M. E. Rahn 11:00 AM 10D.6 Tropical cyclone near-core radial structure from aircraft observations: Implications for vortex resiliency   Kevin J. Mallen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI
	12:00 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM, Wednesday, Richelieu Room Poster Session 1 Posters
P1.1 What are the Dominant Mode and Cause of the Interannual Variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon?   Bin Wang, IPRC University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and X. Fu and T. Li   P1.2 Verification of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from the TPC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)   Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and R. Molleda and R. J. Pasch   P1.3 Various applications on tropical convective systems using a cloud resolving model (CRM)   Chung-Lin Shie, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt and Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. K. Tao and J. Simpson   P1.4 Validation and improvement of moist physical processes in a GCM   Jui-Lin F. Li, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Takacs, A. Hou, and W. S. Olson   P1.5 Utilizing a Local Data Assimilation and Prognostic System to Aid with the Timing, Placement, and Impact of Short-Range Tropical Weather Hazards   Justin J. Mosely, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt   P1.6 Tropical cyclones in the Australian region: modeling future climate   Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. W. Buckley, M. Leplastrier, and M. S. Speer   P1.7 Tropical cyclone multiple eyewall characteristics   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston   P1.8 Tropical cyclone analysis techniques from QuikSCAT NRCS, wind and ambiguity data and microwave imagery   Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam   P1.9 Toward an objective satellite-based algorithm to provide real-time estimates of TC intensity using integrated multispectral (IR and MW) observations   Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, T. L. Olander, D. Herndon, A. J. Wimmers, R. Wacker, K. F. Brueske, B. W. Kabat, J. D. Hawkins, R. T. Edson, and M. DeMaria   P1.10 Tornadic outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin   Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. E. Brooks   P1.11 Three or four vortexes afectation to the Mexican Republic   Enrique Buendía, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México, D. F., Mexico; and F. J. Villicaña and E. Azpra   P1.12 The sensitivity of modeled hurricanes to the distribution of vertical sigma levels   F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball   P1.13 The role of intraseasonal wave activity in the onset and active-break phases of the Indian monsoon   George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Flatau and P. J. Flatau   P1.14 The maintenance of a MCC across Northern Africa: A case study and analysis relating to moisture variables and fluxes   Katie E. Robertson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. -. L. Lin   P1.15 The influence of wind-induced atmosphere-ocean exchange on summertime east Pacific intraseasonal oscillations in the modified NCAR CAM2.0.1   Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR   P1.16 The effects of COADS and other historical accounts of tropical cyclones on the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Re-analysis Project for the years 1935 to 1939   David A. Glenn, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and C. W. Landsea and J. C. Rodgers   P1.17 The diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon in observations and numerical model analyses   Doug J. Parker, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom   P1.18 The development of a new validation technique for tropical cyclone rainfall   Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks, T. P. Marchok, and R. Tuleya   P1.19 The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT): Latest Upgrades and Future Directions   Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and J. P. Kossin   P1.20 Subtropical jet disturbances as initiators of convection during BAMEX   Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau   P1.21 Studies on secondary eyewall formation   Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO   P1.22 Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall   Barry C. Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp   P1.23 Statistical forecasting of Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone intensity using 19-, 37-, and 85- GHz brightness temperatures   Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Jones, J. A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria   P1.24 Simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in the WRF, GFDL, and ZETAC models   David S. Nolan, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bender, T. P. Marchok, S. T. Garner, and C. L. Kerr   P1.25 Severe Thunderstorms over northeastern Queensland on 19 January 2001   Seoleun Shin, Meteorological Institute, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and J. Callaghan   P1.26 Sensitivity of the Structure of Hurricane to Spatial Resolution and the Impacts on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs)   Henian Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar   P1.27 Seasonal to decadal variability of vertical shear over the tropical Atlantic   Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft   P1.28 Seasonal Rainfall Variability within the West African Monsoon System   Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Gu   P1.29 Sea Surface Temperature, Cloud-Radiative Forcing, and Tropical Convection   Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff   P1.30 Saharan Air Layer interaction with Hurricane Claudette (2003)   Gabriel S. Rothman, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. -. B. Chang and T. E. Gill   P1.31 Roof Damage Issues in Hurricanes   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Carrolloton, TX P1.32 Roll vortices in the hurricane boundary layer   Ian Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, F. Marks, and P. Dodge   P1.33 Role of tropical cyclones in large-scale momentum, heat, and moisture budgets   Andrew S. Levine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. P. Hamilton   P1.34 Research on cyclones : Météo-France La Réunion activities   S. Westrelin, Météo-France, La Réunion, France; and D. Barbary, M. Bessafi, F. Chane-Ming, R. Lee-Ah-Siem, and J. M. Willemet   P1.35 Relationships between windspeed and precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ   Larissa E. Back, MIT, Cambridge, MA   P1.36 Re-examining tropical plumes and subtropical jet streaks   Peter Knippertz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. R. Mecikalski   P1.37 Re-Analysis of the September 18, 1936 and Great Atlantic Hurricane of September 14, 1944 in Virginia   Hugh D. Cobb III, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL   P1.38 Radiative energy budget of African Monsoons: NASA CERES observations versus NOAA NCEP Reanalysis 2 data   Takmeng Wong, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and T. D. Bess   P1.39 Numerical model validation of summer trade-wind conditions on Maui   Dana L. Carlis, NOAA and Howard University, Washington, DC; and Y. L. Chen and V. R. Morris   P1.40 Nonlinear shallow water model with weak temperature gradient approximation   Bo Zhou, Columbia University, New York, NY   P1.41 Nile Delta Storm :Tropical Cyclone Occurence Recurving Transition   Therese Schneck, Consulting Engineer, Puteaux La Defense, Paris, France   P1.42 Modification of an airborne gust probe for hurricane boundary layer research   Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. Johnson, S. Beard, and T. Crawford   P1.43 Mid-Level Instrusion and Warm Core Structure in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) During Landfall   Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Halverson   P1.44 Low Frequency Oscillations in Assimilated Global Datasets Using TRMM Rainfall Observations   Li Tao, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and S. Yang, Z. Zhang, A. Hou, and W. S. Olson   P1.45 Large-scale meteorology and deep convection during TRMM KWAJEX   Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. E. Yuter, C. S. Bretherton, and G. N. Kiladis   P1.46 Kinematical characteristics of the tropical storm Juliette   Carlos López Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM   P1.47 ITCZ breakdown in three dimensional flows   Chia-chi Wang, University of California, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir   P1.48 Tropical cyclone intensity estimation by TRMM/TMI microwave radiometer data   Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Hoshino   P1.49 Influence of vertical wind shear on the initial vortex formation of tropical cyclone   Masuo Nakano, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and K. Nakajima   P1.50 Inferring convective momentum fluxes within satellite data   John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL   P1.51 Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts by Combining Microwave Imagery with the SHIPS Model   Thomas A. Jones, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL   P1.52 Important role of air-sea coupling on the realistic simulation of intraseasonal oscillation   Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang   P1.53 Hurricane Observations of Particle Size and Phases and their Implications for Mesoscale Modeling of Microphysical Processes   Greg M. McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. A. Black   P1.54 Forecasting the impact of a statically stable layer in the lower atmosphere on surface wind conditions during Hurricane Isabel   Patrick F. Maloit, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. A. Billet   P1.55 Eyewall boundary layer structure in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, W. D. Ramstrom, K. Emanuel, D. Esteban Fernandez, J. Carswell, and P. Chang   P1.56 An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis   Aaron S. Pratt, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans   P1.57 Evidence of cooperative interactions between intraseasonal oscillations and equatorial waves   Paul Roundy, CIRES and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO   P1.58 Evaluation of the performance of an inland wind decay model during Hurricane Isabel (2003)   John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion and P. P. Dodge   P1.59 Evaluation of new and current products and techniques at the Satellite Analysis Branch of NOAA/NESDIS   Gregory M. Gallina, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Spring, MD   P1.60 Evaluation of a new high-resolution version of the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane model   Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas and M. A. Bender   P1.61 Estimates of turbulent fluxes from high rate aircraft data during EPIC   S. Abarca, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and G. B. Raga and D. Baumgardner   P1.62 ENSO and NAO signals on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec winds   Rosario Romero-Centeno, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. B. Raga   P1.63 Effects of sea spray on the simulation of hurricanes using LES-based parameterizations   William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. C. Wyngaard, Y. C. Kwon, and M. Kelly   P1.64 Effect of meridional variations of moist static energy on mixed Rossby-gravity waves   G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA; and J. Srinivasan   P1.65 Doppler-observed and model-simulated low-level wind surges in Hurricane Danny's (1997) eye wall   Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball and A. Montoya   P1.66 Development and Initial Deployment of an Omnidirectional Pressure-Sphere Anemometer for Observing Winds and Turbulence in Tropical Cyclones   Richard M. Eckman, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. J. Dobosy, T. Strong, and D. L. Auble   P1.67 Damping and pumping of a vortex Rossby wave in a monotonic cyclone: critical layer stirring versus inertia-buoyancy wave emission   David A. Schecter, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery   P1.68 Critical wind speeds to upset two styles of ambulances and a large city bus   Thomas W. Schmidlin, Kent State University, Kent, OH; and B. Hammer, P. S. King, L. S. Miller, G. Thumann, and H. Wetherington   P1.69 Consistency check of drop size distribution in rain retrievals with a combination of TRMM Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar observations   Shoichi Shige, Japan Exploration Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Shimizu, N. Takahashi, T. Iguchi, T. Kozu, and K. Okamoto   P1.70 Comparison of GPS-sonde observations and surface data: An update   Samuel H. Houston, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and P. P. Dodge   P1.71 Comparison of convective environments in deep tropical and extratropical atmospheres with 1989–2002 radiosonde data   Lan Yi, National University of Singapore, Singapore; and H. Lim   P1.72 Climatology of heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones affecting the central Appalachians   James Hudgins, NOAA/NWSFO, Blacksburg, VA; and S. Keighton, K. Kostura, and J. Jackson   P1.73 Climatological Characteristics of the Summertime Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Northwestern Pacific   Joo-Hong Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea   P1.74 Building Damage Issues in Hurricanes   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Carrolloton, TX   P1.75 Beyond hurricanes: Marine analysis and forecasting at the Tropical Prediction Center   Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL   P1.76 An investigation of the extratropical transition of Hurricane  Erin (2001) using the global model of the German Weather service   Matthias Röbcke, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and S. C. Jones and D. Majewski   P1.77 Amazon Basin precipitation intensity in the Community Atmospheric Model   Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall   P1.77 Precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical cyclones   Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   P1.79 Comparison of boundary layer profiles in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel observed by GPS dropwindsonde and aircraft during CBLAST "stepped-descents"   Eric W. Uhlhorn, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black   P1.80 A systemic analysis of multiscale convective variability in the tropics   Wen-wen Tung, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff and J. Gao   P1.81 A numerical study of the effects of shallow convection on tropical-cyclone intensification   Nguyen Van Sang, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith   P1.82 A numerical case study of wet vs. dry regimes in the West African Sahel   Charles J. Alonge, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. I. Mohr and W. -. K. Tao   P1.83 A Method of Applying Quikscat Data for Tropical Cyclone Initialization   Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin   P1.84 A Decision Tree to Assess Forecast Track Confidence for Landfalling Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones   Lance T. Wood, NOAA/NWSFO, Houston/Galveston, TX; and W. Read and G. Hafele   P1.85 A climatology of convective activity in the western end of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec   Keila Sosa, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and F. Oropeza, G. B. Raga, and G. Gomez   P1.86 A Climatological Study on the Landfalling Tropical Cyclones of Bangladesh   Tanveerul Islam, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson   P1.87 2001–2003 Real-time use of cyclone phase diagrams to improve structural diagnosis and forecasting   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans   P1.88 A simulation of hurricane Isidore (2002) using MM5   Diana Pozo, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and I. Borrajero and G. B. Raga   P1.89 High Resolution Observations of Boundary Layer Structures in Isabel at Landfall   Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO   P1.90 A proposed potential vorticity mechanism for sub-tropical cyclogenesis and tropical transition (Formerly Paper Number 2C.5)   Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and M. P. Guishard   P1.91 Deep layer of upper air and multivariate time series models to predict hurricane tracks (Paper Formerly Number 5C.5)   Joan Manuel Castro, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez   P1.92 Performance of Navy's Global Model in Predicting Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific (Formerly Paper Number 1C.4)   Kevin K. W. Cheung, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. C. S. Liu and R. L. Elsberry   P1.93 Numerical Simulations of the Formation of Typhoon Robyn (1993) using MM5 (Formerly Paper Number 1C.5)   Kevin K. W. Cheung, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry   P1.94 Seasonal prediction of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the North Atlantic (Formerly Paper Number 11C.3)   Adam S. Lea, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders   P1.95 Usage of drifting buoys data to monitor Tropical Cyclones in the SouthWest Indian Ocean   Philippe Caroff, Météo-France, La Réuion, France; and A. C. Fontan   P1.96 Derive large-scale forcing data for CRM and SCM by integrating Doppler radar, sounding, TOA and surface measurements (Formerly paper number 12B.3)   Jialin Lin, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes   P1.97 Binary interaction between Typhoons Fengshen (2002) and Fungwong (2002) based on the potential vorticity diagnosis (Formerly Paper Number 17B.2)   Chung-Chuan Yang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu   P1.98 The eyewall evolution and intensity change in a landfalling typhoon (Formerly Paper Number 12A.1)   Hsiu-Ju Cheng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang   P1.99 The preliminary analysis of the dropsonde data from DOTSTAR and their impact on the typhoon track forecasts (Formerly Paper Number 6C.2)   Wei-Peng Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, S. D. Aberson, and K. C. Hsu
	3:45 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Le Jardin Room Session 11A Tropical cyclone impacts and vulnerability
Chair: Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
3:45 PM 11A.1 Wind speeds in a parking garage during a hurricane and use of a parking garage as an evacuation refuge of last resort   Thomas W. Schmidlin, Kent State University, Kent, OH; and B. Hammer, P. S. King, L. S. Miller, G. Thumann, and H. Wetherington 4:00 PM 11A.2 Tropical Storm floods and vulnerability in Florida and the Caribbean   Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 4:15 PM 11A.3 The business benefit of seasonal US landfalling hurricane forecasts from 1 August   Niklaus Hilti, Helvetia Patria Group, St. Gallen, Switzerland; and M. A. Saunders and B. Lloyd-Hughes 4:30 PM 11A.4 A New Method for Determining Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecast Probabilities   James M. Gross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and C. R. Sampson 11A.5 Hurricane Isabel Wind Field Reconstruction and Insured Loss Estimation   Richard Dixon, Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom; and M. Drayton and A. Boissonnade 4:45 PM 11A.6 Enhancing the efficacy of hurricane advisories   Bernhard Lee Lindner, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC; and C. Cockcroft and S. Brueske 11A.7 A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001)   Liguang Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun, J. Halverson, and G. M. Heymsfield
	3:45 PM-5:00 PM, Wednesday, Napoleon I Room Session 10B Interannual variability I (Note new session start time from the original published program)
Chair: Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
3:45 PM 10B.1 Observed stochastic variability associated with ENSO   Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbounre, Vic., Australia; and C. Batstone 4:00 PM 10B.2 Linear and Non-Linear Influence of the MJO on ENSO   Javier Zavala-Garay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang, A. M. Moore, and K. Sahami 4:15 PM 10B.3 The role of tropospheric temperature in the simulated remote tropical surface temperature and precipitation response to the 97-98 El Niño   John C.H. Chiang, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and B. R. Lintner 4:30 PM 10B.4 Interannual Variability of Tropical Mean Precipitation In Relation To Sea Surface Temperature   Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin 4:45 PM 10B.5 The "upped-ante mechanism" for tropical drought in global warming and El Niño   J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. Chou and H. Su
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Napoleon II Room Session 11C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability IV: Seasonal Activity
Chair: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida, Miami, FL
3:45 PM 11C.1 Updated 6–11 month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity   Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. M. Gray 4:00 PM 11C.2 A new tool for the NOAA Atlantic basin seasonal forecast   Eric S. Blake, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and G. Bell and R. J. Pasch 4:14 PM Paper 11C.3 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster number P1.94   4:15 PM 11C.4 Multidecadal-scale fluctuations in October tropical cyclone activity for the Atlantic basin   Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. B. Forde 4:30 PM 11C.5 Large-scale signals associated with tropical cyclone activity in the western north Pacific   Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo 11C.6 A correlation between regional antecedent weather conditions and hurricane activity   James B. Lushine, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL 4:45 PM 11C.7 Seasonal prediction of U.S. landfalling hurricane wind energy from 1 August   Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. Lea
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Napoleon III Room Session 11D tropical cyclone observations and structure VI
Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, International Hurricane Research Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL
3:45 PM 11D.1 Small-scale inner core structures and wind streaks in a simulated hurricane   M.K. Yau, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and Y. Liu, D. L. Zhang, and Y. Chen 4:00 PM 11D.2 Rapid Filamentation Zones In Intense Tropical Cyclones   Christopher M. Rozoff, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin 4:15 PM 11D.3 Observed evolution of upper-level vortex structure in vertically-sheared Hurricane Guillermo (1997)   Paul D. Reasor, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Eastin, J. F. Gamache, and F. D. Marks 4:30 PM 11D.4 Observed evolution of eyewall convection and low-wavenumber flow in Hurricane Guillermo (1997)   Matthew D. Eastin, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. D. Reasor, J. F. Gamache, F. D. Marks, and M. L. Black 4:45 PM 11D.5 Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003)   James P. Kossin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. H. Schubert, C. S. Velden, M. L. Black, P. Black, R. M. Zehr, S. D. Aberson, and J. P. Dunion 5:00 PM 11D.6 A possible mechanism of the formation of the concentric eyewalls: Gradient adjustment process   Jia-Yi Peng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and B. J. D. Jou
	7:00 PM, Wednesday Banquet
Thursday, 6 May 2004
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Thursday, Le Jardin Room Session 12A Tropical cyclone intensity change I: Inner core processes
Chair: Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico (UNM), Albuquerque, NM
8:00 AM Paper 12A.1 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.98   8:01 AM 12A.2 The eyewall replacement and intensity changes in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)   Tong Zhu, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and D. L. Zhang 8:15 AM 12A.3 On the hurricane intensity issue   T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Pattnaik, L. Stefanova, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, B. P. Mackey, and A. J. O'Shay 8:30 AM 12A.4 Optimal Hurricanes: Motivation and Theory   Michael T. Montgomery, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Persing 8:45 AM 12A.5 Optimal hurricanes: Three-dimensional modeling   John Persing, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Nicholls and M. T. Montgomery 9:00 AM 12A.6 On The Effect of Internally Generated Asymmetric Structure on Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Bo Yang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang and B. Wang 9:15 AM 12A.7 Dynamic instabilities of hurricane-like vortices in dry experiments   Young C. Kwon, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Thursday, Napoleon I Room Session 12B Convection, waves, and precipitation V
Chair: Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 12B.1 On the structures and energetics of large-scale convectively coupled gravity waves: a normal mode perspective   Stefan N. Tulich, California State University, Bakersfield, CA; and D. A. Randall 12B.2 Factors responsible for the vertical development of tropical oceanic cumulus convection   Tetsuya Takemi, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan; and C. Liu 8:14 AM Paper 12B.3 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.96   8:15 AM 12B.3A A Satellite-Derived Census of Convective Bursts in Tropical Cyclones and Their Relationship to Storm Lifecycle   Paula Ann Hennon, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. B. Halverson 8:30 AM 12B.4 Convective self-aggregation in large cloud-resolving model simulations of radiative convective equilibrium   Christopher S. Bretherton, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. F. Khairoutdinov 8:45 AM 12B.5 A high-resolution simulation of a transition from shallow to deep cumulus convection   Zhiming Kuang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton 9:00 AM 12B.6 Moisture-convection feedback in the tropics   Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Napoleon II Room Session 12C Tropical cyclone simulation I
Chair: S. D. Aberson, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 12C.1 Preliminary Investigation of Hurricane Lili Using the MM5 Model   C. H. Huang, Minerals Management Service, New Orleans, LA 8:15 AM 12C.2 Parametric Wind Modelling at the Canadian Hurricane Centre   Allan W. MacAfee, MSC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada 8:30 AM 12C.3 Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Erin (2001): Model verification and storm evolution   Liguang Wu, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and S. A. Braun, J. Halverson, and G. M. Heymsfield 8:45 AM 12C.4 In what sense is the hurricane eye a 'containment vessel'?   Thomas A. Cram, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, J. Persing, and S. A. Braun 9:00 AM 12C.5 Comparisons between high-resolution tropical cyclone simulations using MM5 and WRF   James F. Bresch, NCAR, Boulder, CO 9:15 AM 12C.6 Accuracy of the linearized standard balance (BE) and asymmetric balance (AB) systems in a shallow water numerical model   Ingo Sölch, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and J. D. Möller and L. J. Shapiro 9:30 AM 12C.7 Modeling Tropical Cyclone Gridded Wind Field Forecasts   Ken R. Waters, NOAA/NWS, Honolulu, HI; and J. Cline
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Thursday, Napoleon III Room Session 12D Tropical cyclones at landfall I
Chair: Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS
8:00 AM 12D.1 Assessment of the Value of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts   Eva Regnier, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr 8:15 AM 12D.2 An Isotope Climatology of Hurricanes at Landfall   Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence 8:30 AM 12D.3 Interaction of binary cyclones in northeastern Pacific Ocean   Enrique Buendía, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México City, Mexico; and O. Delgado, A. Meulenert, and C. Vázquez 8:45 AM 12D.4 A Tropical Cyclone Landfall Research Program (CLATEX) In China   Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and M. Zhou and X. Xu 9:00 AM 12D.5 A summary of windspeed measurements as collected by Texas Tech during the landfall of Hurricane Isabel   Becca M. Paulsen, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder 9:15 AM 12D.6 A modeling study of the sensitivity of landfalling hurricanes to surface evaporation and surface roughness.   Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL
	9:45 AM, Thursday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Thursday, Le Jardin Room Session 13A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change II: Environmental Factors
Chair: John Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
10:15 AM 13A.1 Large scale flow patterns and the rapid intensification of western north Pacific tropical cyclones   Justin D. Ventham, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang 10:30 AM 13A.2 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in A Uniform Flow   Joey H. Y. Kwok, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 10:45 AM 13A.3 The Saharan Air Layer—Insights from the 2002 and 2003 Atlantic hurricane seasons   Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden, J. D. Hawkins, and J. R. Parrish 11:00 AM 13A.4 The tropical cyclone—jet interaction   Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and M. C. Morgan 11:15 AM 13A.5 Negative entropy flow and its effect on the organization of tropical cyclones   Chongjian Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu 11:30 AM 13A.6 An ensemble approach to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting   Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen and K. A. Emanuel
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Thursday, Napoleon I Room Session 13B Convection, waves, and precipitation VI
Chair: Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO
10:15 AM 13B.1 Multi-balanced modes of deep tropical and extratropical convection self organization   Lan Yi, National University of Singapore, Singapore; and H. Lim 10:30 AM 13B.2 Simulation of tropical precipitation using the Weak Temperature Gradient approximation to the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model   Cristina L. Perez, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, G. Gu, D. Johnson, C. L. Shie, and W. K. Tao 10:45 AM 13B.3 Effects of sea breeze and local winds on rainfall in south Florida   Ryan T. Ellis, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 11:00 AM 13B.4 Discrete propagation and initiation of tropical oceanic convection   Robert G. Fovell, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. A. Houze 11:15 AM 13B.5 Impact of aerosol concentration on a tropical mesoscale convective system: Model study   Xiaowen Li, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. K. Tao, A. Khain, J. Simpson, and D. Johnson 11:30 AM 13B.6 Study of the Tropical Atmosphere: Introduction of a New Tool   Pallav K. Ray, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Thursday, Napoleon II Room Session 13C Tropical cyclone simulation II: Parameterization and numerics
Chair: Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
10:15 AM 13C.1 Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity Forecasts to Convective Momentum Transport Parameterization   Jongil Han, RSIS at EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan 10:30 AM 13C.2 Offline GCSS intercomparison study of cloud—radiation interaction and surface fluxes   W.-K. Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. E. Johnson, S. Krueger, L. Donner, J. Petch, J. Gregory, F. Guichard, J. L. Redelsperger, C. Seman, X. Wu, K. -. M. Xu, and M. A. Zulauf 10:45 AM 13C.4 MM5 simulations of sub-tropical storm Allison over southern Mississippi Valley   Kwan-yin Kong, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Gedzelman 11:00 AM 13C.5 Implementation and Evaluation of Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization Scheme in COAMPSTM for Tropical Cyclone Predictions   Yi Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou and W. T. Thompson 11:15 AM 13C.6 Evaluating microphysical parameterization schemes for use in hurricane environments   Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, S. S. Chen, and R. Black 11:30 AM 13C.7 A Modeling and Observational Study of the Impacts of Microphysical Processes on the Evolution of Hurricane Erin 2001   Greg M. McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and H. Zhang, G. M. Heymsfield, J. Dudhia, J. B. Halverson, R. E. Hood, and F. D. Marks
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Thursday, Napoleon III Room Session 13D Tropical cyclones at landfall II
Chair: James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 13D.1 Uncertainty in Hurricane Winds: What do new measurements and simulations tell us about Hurricane Andrew?   Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. D. Kepert, A. Boissonnade, and P. J. Vickery 10:30 AM 13D.2 Tropical Cyclone Structure and Track Changes Prior to Landfall   Martin L. M. Wong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 10:45 AM 13D.3 Transition in Onshore Hurricane Boundary Layer Winds during the Landfall of Hurricane Lili (2002)   J. Rob Howard, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Doggett, R. E. Peterson, P. G. Black, J. L. Schroeder, D. A. Smith, and J. P. Dunyak 11:00 AM 13D.4 A Numerical Study of the Topographic effects on structure and rainfall in Hurricane Georges (1998)   John Cangialosi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 11:15 AM 13D.5 The characteristic of the surface wind speed over Taiwan area during the invasion of tropical cyclones   Tien-Chiang Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. L. Shieh and S. -. C. Wu 11:30 AM 13D.6 Test of the new GFDL hurricane-land coupled system for landfalling tropical cyclones   Weixing Shen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Tuleya, K. Mitchell, N. Surgi, and S. Lord
	11:45 AM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:15 PM, Thursday, Le Jardin Room Session 14A Tropical cyclone intensity change III: Statistical-Dynamical Models
Chair: Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 14A.1 An introduction to the statistical typhoon intensity prediction scheme (STIPS)   John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and C. R. Sampson 1:45 PM 14A.2 Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting   Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and M. DeMaria and F. J. Wentz 2:00 PM 14A.3 High resolution SST in the SHIPS model: improving operational guidance of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts   Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and C. Sisko and M. DeMaria 2:15 PM 14A.4 Estimating the probability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins   John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria 2:30 PM 14A.5 Rapid intensification predictors associated with major tropical cyclones   Kevin T. Law, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 2:45 PM 14A.6 Hurricane intensity forecasting with neural networks   Michael G. McGauley, University of Miami, Miami, FL 3:00 PM 14A.7 Upper air information and neural networks to estimate hurricane intensity   Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and A. Veneros
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Napoleon I Room Session 14B Large-scale circulation I
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY
14B.1 The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Temperatures   Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and N. Bond 1:30 PM 14B.2 The relationship between the MJO, oceanic Kelvin waves, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation   Paul E. Roundy, CIRES/Univ or Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis 1:45 PM 14B.3 Zonal momentum budget of tropical large-scale circulations: The source and strength of mechanical damping   Jialin Lin, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes 2:00 PM 14B.4 Development and propagation of a pollution gradient in the marine boundary layer during INDOEX (1999)   Matthew Simpson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman 2:15 PM 14B.5 Intercontinental Atmospheric Processes in the Tropics: African Influence on South America   Samson Hagos, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. Cook 2:30 PM 14B.6 Quasi-biennial variability in the tropical South Atlantic simulated by an atmospheric GCM coupled to an ocean mixed layer   Sylwia Trzaska, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson and J. D. Farrara
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Napoleon II Room Session 14C Tropical cyclone simulation III: Initialization and Assimilation
Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 14C.1 Use of radar data for TC initializaiton and predictions   Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. C. Lee, and W. Wang 1:45 PM 14C.2 Hurricane Initialization in High Resolution models   Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, N. Surgi, H. L. Pan, T. P. Marchok, R. Tuleya, and M. A. Bender 2:00 PM 14C.3 Typhoon Simulations with Assimilated GPS Occultation Refractivity   Ching-Yuang Huang, National Central University (Taiwan), Chung-Li, Taiwan; and Y. -. H. Kuo, S. H. Chen, and F. Vandenberghe 2:15 PM 14C.4 Data Assimilation by Field Alignment for Coherent Structures   Sai Ravela, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel and D. McLaughlin 14C.5 Data assimilation using a simple barotropic track model   William E. Lewis, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli 2:30 PM 14C.6 Hurricane Model Initialization with AMSU Measurements   Tong Zhu, Colorado State Univ./CIRA at NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Napoleon III Room Session 14D Tropical cyclones at landfall III
Chair: Peter P. Dodge, Jr., HRD/AOML/NOAA, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 14D.1 Onshore and offshore wind flow regimes at the landfall of Hurricane Isabel (2003)5   Peter P. Dodge, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, E. W. Uhlhorn, D. Esteban Fernandez, J. Carswell, and P. Chang 1:45 PM 14D.2 Kinematics of rainbands in Hurricane Isabel during landfall   Michael I. Biggerstaff, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. M. Briede 2:00 PM 14D.3 Kinematic structure of Hurricane Isabel (2003) near landfall from the Morehead City WSR-88D   Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Bell 2:15 PM 14D.4 Doppler profiler and radar observations of boundary layer variability during the landfall of TS Gabrielle   Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters and M. Biggerstaff 2:30 PM 14D.5 Mesoscale and precipitation processes observed by Doppler profiler and radar during the landfall of Tropical Storm Gabrielle   Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. T. Walters and M. I. Biggerstaff 2:45 PM 14D.6 Low-level Kinematic, Thermodynamic, and Reflectivity Fields of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) near Landfall   Rebecca Schneider, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. Barnes and P. Dodge
	3:15 PM, Thursday Coffee Break
	3:45 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Le Jardin Room Session 15A Tropical cyclone intensity change IV: Numerical Modeling Studies
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
3:45 PM 15A.1 A numerical study of rapid intensity change in hurricane Lili (2002)   Mélicie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and J. E. Tenerelli 4:00 PM 15A.2 Influence of atmospheric asymmetries on the intensification of GFDL forecast model hurricanes   Lloyd J. Shapiro, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and J. D. Möller 4:15 PM 15A.3 Mechanics and efficiency of symmetric and asymmetric intensification processes   David S. Nolan, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 4:30 PM 15A.4 Influences of asymmetric heating on tropical cyclone evolution in a full-physics numerical model   J. Dominique Möller, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and L. J. Shapiro 4:45 PM 15A.5 Dynamical constraints on the maximum intensity of hurricanes   Roger K. Smith, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and H. Zhu, W. Ulrich, and C. M. Nguyen
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Thursday, Napoleon I Room Session 15B Large-scale circulation II
Chair: Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
3:45 PM 15B.1 An idealized Walker model coupled to an ocean mixed layer   Matthew E. Peters, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 4:00 PM 15B.2 Dynamics and Instabilities of the ITCZ   Violeta E. Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 4:15 PM 15B.3 The Eastern Pacific ITCZ during the Boreal Spring   Guojun Gu, NASA/GSFC and Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and A. H. Sobel 4:30 PM 15B.4 ITCZ breakdown: an observational study over the tropical East Pacific   Chia-chi Wang, University of California, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir 4:45 PM 15B.5 A moist model of the Hadley circulation with wind dependent surface fluxes   Samuel P. Burns, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and L. M. Polvani 5:00 PM 15B.6 Hadley cell or no Hadley cell, that is the question   Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. G. McGauley and N. A. Bond
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Thursday, Napoleon II Room Session 15C Tropical Cyclone Simulation IV: Initialization and Assimilation
Organizer: Robert Tuleya, SAIC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Norfolk, VA
3:45 PM 15C.1 The relative role of wind vs. pressure in the initialization of tropical cyclones—Observing-Systems Simulation Experiments   Kun-Hsuan Chou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang 4:00 PM 15C.2 MM5 Simulations of Precipitation and Mesocyclone Dynamics Associated wih TC Gabrielle (2001) using High Resolution Data of East Central Florida   G. V. Rao, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and K. Santhanam, J. W. Scheck, S. M. Spratt, B. C. Hagemeyer, R. Edwards, J. Schaefer, J. L. Case, and E. Kemp 4:15 PM 15C.3 Influence of initial vortex structure on the simulation of hurricane lifecycles   Joseph E. Tenerelli, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 4:30 PM 15C.4 Experiments of a Typhoon Bogussing Scheme in the MM5 3D-Var Cycling System   Qingnong Xiao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo, Y. Zhang, D. M. Barker, and D. J. Won 4:45 PM 15C.5 A Study on the Impact of Initial Fields on the Typhoon Track and Rainfall Simulation in the Vicinity of Taiwan   Der-Song Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, K. -. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh 5:00 PM 15C.6 Simulative improvement of Hurricane Andrew using the technique of irreversible thermodynamic operators   Ying Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and C. Liu
	3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Thursday, Napoleon III Room Session 15D Tropical cyclones at landfall IV
Chair: Peter J. Bowyer, MSC - Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS Canada
3:45 PM 15D.1 Meteorological assessment for Super Typhoon Pongsona at landfall on Guam—December 8, 2002.   Mark Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and C. P. Guard and A. N. L. Chiu 4:00 PM 15D.2 Implementing a single-Doppler radar technique for tropical cyclones and integrating radar-derived wind fields into H*Wind surface analyses   Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. Dodge, W. C. Lee, and G. M. Barnes 4:15 PM 15D.3 The Impact of Vapor Transportation on the Sustaining of Tropical Cyclones over land   Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and L. Chen 4:30 PM 15D.4 Hurricane boundary layer rolls observed during the landfall of Hurricane Isabel   Sylvie Lorsolo, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder 4:45 PM 15D.5 Extreme hurricane winds in the United States   Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner 5:00 PM 15D.6 Equivalent 10-meter wind speeds in Hurricane Fabian   Kyle Beatty, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and C. Miller and A. Boissonnade
Friday, 7 May 2004
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Le Jardin Room Session 16A sea-air interaction: Hurricanes Isidore and Lili
Chair: Michelle Mainelli, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 16A.1 Upper ocean response and feedback to 2002 Hurricanes Isidore and Lili in tandem   Wei Zhao, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and J. Tenerelli 8:15 AM 16A.2 Surface fluxes and upper ocean budgets during 2002 Hurricanes Isidore and Lili   S. Daniel Jacob, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. K. Shay, G. R. Halliwell, C. J. Koblinsky, and M. D. Powell 8:30 AM 16A.3 Analysis of upper-ocean thermodynamic observations forced by Hurricane Lili   Eric W. Uhlhorn, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay 8:45 AM 16A.4 Observed Modulation of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability by Upper Ocean Current Shears During Hurricanes Isidore and Lili   Lynn K. Shay, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and T. Cook, R. Evans, E. W. Uhlhorn, S. Guhin, J. Cione, S. White, and M. L. Black 9:00 AM 16A.5 Observed Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure During the Passages of Hurricanes Isidore and Lili.   Scott Guhin, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and L. Shay, E. Uhlhorn, T. Cook, S. White, and M. L. Black 9:15 AM 16A.6 Modulations of Surface Wave Energy over Near-Inertial Time Scales   Sean R. White, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay 9:30 AM 16A.7 Atmospheric boundary layer and upper-ocean observations in Hurricane Lili (2002) south of Cuba   Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, L. K. Shay, T. Cook, and S. A. Guhin
	8:00 AM-9:30 AM, Friday, Napoleon I Room Session 16B Convection, waves, and precipitation VII
Chair: David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 16B.1 On the dynamics of two day equatorial disturbances   Patrick T. Haertel, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and G. N. Kiladis 8:15 AM 16B.2 Vortex alignment on the f and beta plane   Robert W. Jones, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby 8:30 AM 16B.3 Evolution of Eyewall-like, Unstable Vorticity Rings   Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Vigh and H. Wang 8:45 AM 16B.4 Microburst dynamics   Greg Holland, Aerosonde North America Inc, Boulder, CO; and P. T. May 9:00 AM 16B.5 Forcing of deep convection over tropical oceans   David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 9:15 AM 16B.6 Convectively Generated Inertial-Gravity Waves and Multi-Scale Organization of Convection   Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Liu
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Napoleon II Room Session 16C tropical cyclone best track and climatology I
Chair: Chris W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 16C.1 Have there been any typhoons stronger than Super Typhoon Tip?   Karl Hoarau, Cergy-Pontoise University, Cergy-Pontoise, France; and G. Padgett and J. P. Hoarau 8:15 AM 16C.2 Spatial and temporal distribution of tropical cyclones over the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific   Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 8:30 AM 16C.3 A season-long study of the tropical cyclone lifecycles in the Atlantic basin (2001)   Ron McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 8:45 AM 16C.4 Use of numerical weather prediction technology for simulations of historic tropical cyclones   Michael Dickinson, Accurate Environmental Forecasting Inc., Narragansett, RI; and G. D. Rowe, R. Richardson, I. Ginis, and L. Rothstein 16C.5 Climatology of United States tropical cyclone rainfall   Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling, R. S. Vose, and N. Guttman 9:00 AM 16C.6 Composite and Case Studies of Precipitation Distribution in U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones   Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari 16C.7 Landfalling Tropical Cyclones, Resulting Floods, and Hydrological Budgets   Tammy Lyttek, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Napoleon III Room Session 16D Tropical cyclone extratropical transition I
Chair: John L Beven, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 16D.1 Model based diagnosis of the genesis phase of Atlantic Hurricane Karen   Michael J. Fries Jr., University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin 8:15 AM 16D.2 Interaction of tropical cyclone outflow and an extratropical baroclinic zone: idealized simulations with MM5   Michael Riemer, NPS, Monterey, CA 8:30 AM 16D.3 Extratropical Transition and THORPEX   Sarah C. Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and C. S. Velden, S. Aberson, J. Abraham, and P. A. Harr 8:45 AM 16D.4 Desktop hurricane-waves resonance modeling at the Canadian Hurricane Centre: output in less than 60 seconds   Peter J. Bowyer, MSC/Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and A. W. MacAfee 9:00 AM 16D.5 Application of spatio-temporal pattern recognition techniques to predicting extratropical transition in tropical cyclones   Oguz Demirci, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie and J. S. Tyo 9:15 AM 16D.6 A cluster analysis derived synoptic evolution of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic   Justin M. Arnott, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA 9:30 AM 16D.7 The role of waves, sea spray and the upper ocean in midlatitude Storm Development   Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Zhang, X. Ren, Z. Long, E. L. Andreas, J. R. Gyakum, and R. McTaggart-Cowan
	9:45 AM, Friday Coffee Break
	10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Friday, Le Jardin Room Session 17A Tropical cyclone air-sea interaction
Chair: Robbie Berg, NOAA/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 17A.1 Vertical Profiles of Thermodynamic Variables in Hurricanes Bonnie (1998) and Mitch (1998): Implications for Energy Transport in the Inflow Layer   Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Schneider and S. Houston 10:30 AM 17A.2 The Intensification of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy   I-I Lin, National Center for Ocean Research, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, K. A. Emanuel, W. T. Liu, and I. H. Lee 10:45 AM 17A.3 The impact of SST cold wake induced by Typhoon Rusa (2002) on the intensity evolution of Typhoon Sinlaku (2002)   Treng-Shi Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and I. I. Lin 17A.4 Mesoscale Model Investigation of Air-sea Interactions and Associated Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Gulf of Mexico   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, 39217, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz 17A.5 Forecast performance of a coastal wave model during Hurricane Isabel   Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and E. Rogers 11:00 AM 17A.6 A new ocean data assimilation and initialization procedure for the coupled GFDL/URI hurricane prediction system.   Aleksandr Falkovich, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and I. Ginis and S. Lord
	10:15 AM-11:00 AM, Friday, Napoleon I Room Session 17B Tropical Cyclone Motion
Chair: Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong China
10:15 AM 17B.1 The Effects of the Full Coriolis Force on the Structure and Motion of a Tropical Cyclone Part I: Effects Due To Vertical Motion   Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and J. C. L. Chan and Y. Duan 10:29 AM Paper 17B.2 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.97   10:30 AM 17B.3 Application of singular vector analyses to tropical cyclone motions   Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds 10:45 AM 17B.4 A dynamic model for barotropic vortex motion over topography on a ß Plane   Hung-Cheng Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Chu and C. C. Chang
	10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Friday, Napoleon II Room Session 17C Tropical cyclone best track and climatology II
Chair: Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL
10:15 AM 17C.1 The Atlantic basin hurricane database re-analysis for the decades of the 1910s, 1920s and 1930s   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Gamache, S. E. Feuer, J. Berkeley, W. Bredemeyer, and L. Woolcock 10:30 AM 17C.2 The reanalysis of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from the 1920's: A reexamination of three catastrophic hurricanes that impacted Florida   Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea, L. Woolcock, and J. Berkeley 10:45 AM 17C.3 An Analysis of Hurricane Landfall Patterns in the South Atlantic Bight, 1851-2000   Al Sandrik, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and P. Welsh, J. Hess, and P. Camp 11:00 AM 17C.4 Reconstructing South Carolina tropical cyclones back to the mid eighteenth century   Cary J. Mock, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and D. O. Mayes, J. Mojzisek, M. McWaters, and M. Chenoweth 11:15 AM 17C.5 Hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources: an update   Ricardo García-Herrera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; and L. Gimeno, P. Ribera, and E. Hernandez 11:30 AM 17C.6 Japanese long-term reanalysis project (JRA-25): Impacts of wind retrieval tropical cyclone derived from best track data   Hiroaki Hatsushika, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Chiba, Japan; and J. Tsutsui 11:45 AM 17C.7 Atlantic Intense Hurricanes, 1995–2003—Characteristics Based on Best Track, Aircraft, and IR Images   Raymond Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO
	10:15 AM-11:30 AM, Friday, Napoleon III Room Session 17D tropical cyclone extratropical transition II
Chair: Jenni L Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA
10:15 AM 17D.1 The impact of extra tropical transition on hurricane risk in the Northeast US   Robert Muir-Wood, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom; and R. Dixon and A. Boissonnade 10:30 AM 17D.2 The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew (1992): A comparison.   Michael Dickinson, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, K. L. Corbosiero, S. Hopsch, K. Lombardo, M. J. Novak, B. Smith, and A. C. Wasula 10:45 AM 17D.3 Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of North Atlantic TCs as defined within cyclone phase space   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans 11:00 AM 17D.4 Predictability Associated with Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones as defined by Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems   Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. Anwender and S. C. Jones 11:15 AM 17D.5 Numerical experiments on the interaction of a hurricane-like vortex with a baroclinic wave   Helga Weindl, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
	12:00 PM-12:15 PM, Friday, Le Jardin Room Session 999 Concluding remarks
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL

Browse the complete program of The 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology