20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday
Short Course/Student Conference Registration
 
Sunday, 11 January 2004
7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration
 
9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration
 
Monday, 12 January 2004
7:30 AM, Monday
Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
 
9:00 AM-12:15 PM, Monday, Room 6A
Joint Session 1 Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
9:00 AMWelcoming Remarks  
9:15 AMJ1.2THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme  
Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO
9:45 AMJ1.3Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters  
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish
10:00 AMJ1.4Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system  extended abstract wrf recording
Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth
10:15 AMCoffee Break in Poster session room  
10:45 AMJ1.5Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures  
Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu
11:00 AMJ1.6An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations  extended abstract
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu
11:15 AMJ1.7Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system  extended abstract
Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin
11:30 AMJ1.8The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA  extended abstract
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos
11:45 AMJ1.9Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements  
Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou
12:00 PMJ1.10Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF)  
Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth
 
9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Room 605/606
Session 1 Opening Session (ROOM 605/606)
Cochairs: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
9:00 AMWelcoming Remarks: Ed Bensman and Mary Cairns, Program Co-chairpersons  
9:15 AM1.1MODIS Winds in NAVDAS  extended abstract
Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley
9:30 AM1.2Applying the new Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to National Weather Service forecast office operations  extended abstract
Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Smart, J. McGinley, M. Kay, J. Mahoney, P. Welsh, P. Bogenschutz, P. Ruscher, J. Savadel, and A. Wildman
9:45 AM1.3Grid-Based Bias Removal For Mesoscale Model Forecasts  
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed
10:00 AM1.4Verification of NDFD Gridded Forecasts in the Western United States  extended abstract
John D. Horel, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Colman and M. Jackson
 
10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday
Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
 
10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 605/606
Session 2 Analysis Techniques (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO
10:45 AM2.1Snowin' to Beat The Band: Using Satellite Imagery and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Output to Diagnose the Rapid Development of A Mesoscale Snow Band  
David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and E. Vallier-Talbot
11:00 AM2.2Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting  extended abstract
Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. L. Haines, R. J. Suggs, T. Bradshaw, C. Darden, and J. E. Burks
11:15 AM2.3A Fresh Look at Persistent Ridging in the North Pacfic  extended abstract
John M. Papineau, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK
11:30 AM2.4Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting  
Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik
11:45 AM2.5Assimilation of MODIS temperature and water vapor profiles into a mesoscale analysis system  extended abstract wrf recording
Bradley T. Zavodsky, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Lazarus, P. F. Blottman, and D. W. Sharp
 
10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 619/620
Session 3 Verification Studies (ROOM 619/620)
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:45 AM3.1On the determination of forecast errors arising from different components of model physics and dynamics  extended abstract wrf recording
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Sanjay, A. K. Mitra, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
10:59 AM3.2Paper moved to Session 7, New Paper number 7.5A  
11:00 AM3.2aA Numerical Model Investigation of Intensity Forecast Error for Hurricane Lili (2002) (Formerly paper number 7.5)  extended abstract
Yi Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou
11:15 AM3.3Ongoing assessment of GPS-IPW impact on RUC forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and S. Sahm
11:30 AM3.4The impact of model resolution improvements and statistical forecast techniques on mesoscale prediction during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games  
Kenneth A. Hart, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert
11:45 AM3.5Validation of MM5 for evolution of cold fronts approaching the Gulf of Mexico  
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and K. Davenport
 
10:45 AM-11:45 AM, Monday, Room 607
Session 4 Convection (ROOM 607)
Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
10:45 AM4.1Convection in BAMEX during an active subtropical jet period  extended abstract
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Galarneau, Jr.
4.2Toward understanding and predicting rapid changes in convective inhibition  
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin, M. S. Bukovsky, and M. E. Baldwin
11:00 AM4.3The impact of choice of convective scheme on synoptic features in the NCEP Eta model  extended abstract wrf recording
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
11:15 AM4.4Evaluation of an Improved Convection Triggering Mechanism in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2 Under CAPT Framework  extended abstract wrf recording
Shaocheng Xie, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. S. Boyle, R. T. Cederwall, G. L. Potter, and M. Zhang
11:30 AM4.5Impact of Turbulent Liquid Water Flux on Cloud Microphysics in Mesoscale Models  extended abstract wrf recording
Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt and J. C. Golaz
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 6A
Joint Session 2 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
1:30 PMJ2.1Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation  extended abstract
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill
1:45 PMJ2.2Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii  
Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara
2:00 PMJ2.3The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill  extended abstract
Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC/JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo
2:15 PMJ2.4A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model  extended abstract
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 605/606
Session 5 Case Studies (ROOM 605/606)
1:30 PM5.1The St. Patrick’s Day Snowstorm, 2002, Anchorage, Alaska  extended abstract wrf recording
Joel C. Curtis, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and J. M. Papineau, C. A. Scott, and K. Johnson
1:45 PM5.2Using low-level precipitable hydrometeor mixing ratios from the MM5 to determine precipitation type: Ohio valley cases from the 2002–2003 winter  extended abstract wrf recording
Chris Smallcomb, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and T. Sturey
1:59 PMPaper 5.3 has been moved to Session 10, New Paper Number 10.3A  
2:00 PM5.3aMesoscale model simulations in Quasi-forecast mode of the great western storm of 16–20 March 2003 (Formerly Paper Number 10.3)  extended abstract wrf recording
Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Poulos, J. Snook, E. Szoke, M. P. Meyers, G. Byrd, R. A. Rozumalski, and H. McIntyre
2:15 PM5.4Model Dynamic and Microphysical Verification of the 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE 2 Case  
Matthew Garvert, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. A. Colle, C. Mass, and C. P. Woods
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 619/620
Session 6 Model Output Statistics (MOS) (ROOM 619/620)
Chair: Ronald Miller, NOAA/NWS, Spokane, WA
1:30 PM6.1Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections  extended abstract wrf recording
J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. C. Erickson and J. C. Maloney
1:45 PM6.2Adjusting model output statistics (MOS) surface temperature forecasts using multiple linear regression and Kalman filtering  
Andrew A. Taylor, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. B. Richman
2:00 PM6.3Producing MOS Snowfall Amount Forecasts from Cooperative Observer Reports  extended abstract
Rebecca L. Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Sfanos
2:15 PM6.4Are Model Output Statistics still needed?  extended abstract wrf recording
Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA; and K. A. Hanson
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Room 4AB
Poster Session 1 Monday Posters
 P1.1Simulation of the 27 May 1997 central Texas tornadic storms: Cell development and the role of the preexisting boundary  
Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. S. Gilmore and R. B. Wilhelmson
 P1.2Severe weather outbreak over Phoenix, Arizona, on 14 July 2002  extended abstract
G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and E. S. Pytlak
 P1.3Role of Tropical Cyclone in Southern China on the Heavy Rainfall over Korea  extended abstract
Kye-Hwan Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong
 P1.4Preliminary results of a real time, time to space conversion for surface analysis  extended abstract
James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt
 P1.5Orographic effect on heavy rainfall in the east coast of the Korean Peninsula induced by a tropical cyclone  extended abstract
Seon K. Park, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; and E. Lee, D. E. Chang, and L. Leslie
 P1.6Winter storm forecasting as a two-step process: the 26–27 November 2001 snowstorm  extended abstract
Martin A. Baxter, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng, C. E. Graves, and J. T. Moore
 P1.7Numerical modelling of the 31 May 1998 severe bow echo  extended abstract
James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt
 P1.8Large scale regime transition and its relationship to significant cool season precipitation events in the Northeast  extended abstract
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. Grumm
 P1.9Insights into Columbia Gorge Gap Flow through High Resolution Simulations of Actual and Idealized Events  
Justin Sharp, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
 P1.10Initial and Boundary Conditions for a Limited Area Ensemble Kalman Filter  
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim and C. Snyder
 P1.11Improved tropical cyclone prediction using 4-D variational assimilation of high-resolution satellite and radar data  
Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. F. LeMarshall
 P1.12Mesoscale variational assimilation of profiling radiometer data  extended abstract
Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and C. Grassotti and R. Ware
 P1.13Assimilation of ground-based GPS PWV with 3DVAR system for a IHOP case  extended abstract
Y.-R. Guo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Kusaka, D. M. Barker, Y. -. H. Kuo, and A. Crook
 P1.14Support of the Air Force Weather Agency's Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) and Cloud Depiction Forecast System-II (CDFS-II): A Current Status Report  extended abstract
Fritz VanWijngaarden, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, S. Bellevue, NE; and M. Kaufman, A. Ronn, and R. S. Penc
 P1.15Verification of mesoscale modeling for the heavy rainfall event of May 12, 2000 over southern Ontario  
Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada
 P1.16Using the COAMPSTM adjoint modeling system to forecast a tropical cyclone  extended abstract
Clark M. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou
 P1.17Understanding the Analysis Error Pattern of a 3DVAR System Using Streamfunction and Velocity Potential  extended abstract
Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
P1.18Tools used in the analysis of tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall  
Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD
 P1.19The Steepness Limit to Validity of Approximations to Pressure Gradient Force: any Signs of an Impact?  extended abstract
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD
 P1.20The RUC 3dvar: Operational performance and recent improvements  extended abstract
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt
 P1.21The planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics  extended abstract
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland
 P1.22The Influence of Lake Michigan on a Wintertime Cold Front  extended abstract
Joseph G. Dreher, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich
 P1.23The Impact of Assimilating GPS-PW data using WRF-3DVAR on a Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP  extended abstract
Hiroyuki Kusaka, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and Y. R. Guo, A. Crook, D. M. Barker, and H. Hirakuchi
 P1.24Terrain effetcs on the simulation of heavy rainfall occured at the Jiri mountain area of the Korean peninsula  extended abstract
Mee-Hyun Jo, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim
 P1.25The global 3DVAR system of Korea Meteorological Administration  extended abstract
Sang-Won Joo, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H. C. Shin and W. J. Lee
 P1.26A Modification to the Bratseth Method of Successive Corrections for Complex Terrain  extended abstract
David T. Myrick, University of Utah, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and S. M. Lazarus
 P1.27An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical cyclones  extended abstract
Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
 P1.28Access to real-time and retrospective Numerical Weather Prediction models at the National Climatic Data Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction  extended abstract
Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert and W. T. Smith
 P1.29A reanalysis of Hurricane Hazel (1954)  
Scott R. Weese, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum
 P1.30A multi-scale analysis of the end of the millennium snowstorm  extended abstract
Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and A. C. Wasula and L. F. Bosart
 P1.31A Finite-Volume Mass- and Vorticity-conserving Solver of the Shallow-Water Equations on the Sphere using Penta-/Hexagonal Grids  
William Sawyer, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
 P1.32A different beast: An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the Intermountain region of the Western United States  
Jason C. Shafer, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West
 P1.33A composite study of precipitation distribution in U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones  extended abstract
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari
 P1.34A Comparison of Satellite and Sounding Derived Cloud Top Temperatures  extended abstract
Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Bateman and B. C. Bernstein
 P1.35A 4DVAR Analysis of the Febraury 7–8, 2002 Oregon Cyclone  
Brian C. Ancell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass
 P1.36Impact of mesoscale data, cloud analysis on the explicit prediction of an MCS during IHOP 2002  extended abstract
Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
 P1.37Are there weather holes? An objective analysis  extended abstract
Matthew D. Parker, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. C. Knievel
 P1.38Generation of improved land-surface data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models  
David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie, J. Merchant, A. Taylor, C. Godfrey, and R. Bonifaz
 P1.39Flash flooding during a severe drought situation: a case study of the 2002 Ogallala, NE event  extended abstract
Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe, D. B. Radell, and J. R. McCormick
 P1.40Estimation of observation impact using the NAVDAS adjoint system  
Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker
 P1.41Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season Numeical QPF be Improved?  
William Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. Hoch, B. Shaw, and S. Dembek
 P1.42Data Assimilation using Weather Research and Forecasting Model: An Effort to Improve Fine-Scale Modeling  extended abstract
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz, M. A. Askelsen, and L. Osborne
 P1.43Convective Towers in Eyewalls of Tropical Cyclones Observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar in 1998–2001  extended abstract
Owen A. Kelley, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Stout
 P1.44Cold season 500 hPa cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution and a case study  extended abstract
Anthony R. Fracasso, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. Evans
 P1.45Coherent global intraseasonal oscillation deduced by CSEOF  
Baek-Min Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim and K. Y. Kim
 P1.46Case studies of warm season cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution  extended abstract
Jessica S. Najuch, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. Wasula, and K. LaPenta
 P1.47Assimilation of surface cloud, visibility, and current weather observations in the RUC  extended abstract
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, B. Schwartz, and W. R. Moninger
 P1.48Use of TMI and SSM/I data in JMA Operational Meso-Analysis  extended abstract
Yoshiaki Sato, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Takeuchi and T. Tauchi
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 3AB
Joint Session 3 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)
Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3, Greenbelt, MD
4:00 PMJ3.1Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter  
Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski
4:15 PMJ3.2Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model  extended abstract
Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu
4:30 PMJ3.3Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation  
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell
4:45 PMJ3.4Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model  extended abstract
Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
5:00 PMJ3.5Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline  extended abstract
Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder
5:15 PMJ3.6Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter  
Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 619/620
Session 7 Verification Studies: Part II (ROOM 619/620)
Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE
4:00 PM7.1Forecasters' evaluation of the Integrated Turbulence Forecast Algorithm (ITFA), winter 2003  extended abstract wrf recording
Matthew Kelsch, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and C. Fischer and J. L. Mahoney
4:15 PM7.2Objective evaluation of NCEP/GFS precipitation forecast  
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
4:30 PM7.3Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States during Winter 2002–2003 by the RSM Ensemble System  
Huiling Yuan, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. M. H. Juang
4:45 PM7.4Verification of the FSL ensemble of mesoscale models used for a winter weather application  extended abstract wrf recording
Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
4:59 PM7.5Paper moved to Session 3, new paper number 3.2A  
5:00 PM7.5aComparing rawinsonde and model soundings to improve aircraft icing forecasts (Formerly Paper number 3.2)  extended abstract wrf recording
Cory A. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO
5:15 PM7.6A validation of the NCEP SREF  extended abstract wrf recording
Andrew J. Hamm, Northland College, Ashland, WI; and K. L. Elmore
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 605/606
Session 8 Case Studies: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
4:00 PM8.1A forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within developing extratropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Waldstreicher, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser
4:15 PM8.2Analysis of the Texas Norther: Case Study  extended abstract wrf recording
Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA
4:30 PM8.3The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. east coast snowstorm  extended abstract
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
4:45 PM8.4Assessing the impact of meteorological conditions upon tornado evolution during 4 May 2003 tornado outbreak  
Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and G. Koch, M. Stoflet, and S. M. Fortin
5:00 PM8.5Diagnosis and Prediction of the 3–4 June 2002 Iowa-Illinois Flood  extended abstract
James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. A. Wolf, B. L. Mickelson, J. A. Zogg, and C. E. Graves
5:15 PM8.6March 12–13th, "Bora" Windstorm across much of South-Central Alaska  extended abstract
Carven A. Scott, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and S. E. Baines and J. P. Papineau
 
5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
 
5:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the Day
 
7:15 PM, Monday
Fred Sanders Banquet
 
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 4 Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AMJ4.1Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:45 AMJ4.2Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
9:00 AMJ4.3Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002   wrf recording
Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. -. Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H. -. Y. Chun
9:15 AMJ4.4Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization  extended abstract
Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo
9:30 AMJ4.5The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales  extended abstract wrf recording
Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 605/606
Joint Session 5 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
8:30 AMJ5.1A scheme for the characterization and synthesis of anisotropic background error covariances suitable for adaptive variational assimilation  extended abstract
R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD
8:45 AMJ5.2Assimilation experiments at NCEP designed to test quality control procedures and effective scale resolutions for QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data  extended abstract
T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and W. H. Gemmill
9:00 AMJ5.33DVAR retrieval of 3D moisture field from slant-path water vapor observations of high-resolution hypothetical GPS network  extended abstract
Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
9:15 AMJ5.44D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations  extended abstract wrf recording
T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil
9:30 AMJ5.5The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System  
Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday, Room 4AB
Poster Session 2 Tuesday Posters
 P2.1Redistribution of angular momentum in a global forecast model due to change in drag parameterizations  extended abstract
Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan
 P2.2The importance of moisture profile with vertical wind shear in the dynamics of mid-latitude squall lines  extended abstract
Tetsuya Takemi, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan
 P2.3The impact of cloud microphysics on the surface solar radiation  extended abstract
Hsin-mu Lin, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Ferrier, Y. T. Hou, E. Rogers, K. E. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, and J. Meng
 P2.4Sub-Grid Scale Mountain Blocking at NCEP  extended abstract
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
 P2.5Paper Moved to Session 17, New paper Number 17.5A  
 P2.6Recent advances in supercell modeling  
Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and D. J. Stensrud
 P2.7Prognostic ozone in NOGAPS  
Douglas Allen, NRL, Washington, DC; and L. Coy, S. Eckermann, J. McCormack, T. Hogan, and Y. J. Kim
 P2.8The MURI Uncertainty Monitor (MUM)  extended abstract
David W. Jones, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Joslyn
 P2.9The operational implications of forecasting a heavy snow event over the central Rockies in an atypical flow regime  extended abstract
Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO; and J. D. Colton, R. L. McAnelly, W. R. Cotton, D. A. Wesley, J. S. Snook, and G. S. Poulos
 P2.10Tornadic Supercell Outbreaks in the Southern Great Plains  
Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. Brooks
 P2.11The WRF-single-moment-microphysics scheme and its evaluation of the simulation of mesoscale convective systems  extended abstract
Jeong-Ock Jade Lim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong and J. Dudhia
 P2.12Towards evaluating surface heat flux parameterizations from a large-scale perspective: Arctic Ocean example  
Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
 P2.13Winter forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modelling system in the northeast U.S.—winter 2002–2003  extended abstract
Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish
 P2.14Using PV concepts to diagnose a poorly-predicted heavy snow band in New England (6–7 January 2003)  
Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and P. Sisson
 P2.15Operational forecasting of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)  
Walt McKeown, Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA
 P2.16Numerically Simulated Interactions Between a Precipitating Synoptic System and Lake-Effect Snowbands over Lake Michigan  extended abstract
Katy L. Fitzpatrick, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich
 P2.17A standard test set for nonhydrostatic dynamical cores of NWP models  
William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Doyle, P. Clark, and N. Wood
 P2.18An experiment in probabilistic quantitative snowfall forecasting  extended abstract
Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and M. P. DeLisi
 P2.19An investigation of IHOP convective system predictability using a matrix of 19 WRF members  extended abstract
Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, B. Shaw, and S. E. Koch
 P2.20Model Applications to the Hawaiian Islands  
DaNa L. Carlis, NOAA/Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris
 P2.21Comparison between Regional Spectral Model and high-resolution global circulation model in North American Monsoon simulation  
Yucheng Song, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and K. Mo
 P2.22Development of a New Land-Surface Model for JMA-GSM  extended abstract
Masayuki Hirai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Ohizumi
 P2.23Evaluating surface weather variables predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the western United States  
William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh
 P2.24Evaluation of the National Marine Verification Program at WFO Key West  
Matt C. Parke, NOAA/NWSFO, Key West, FL; and A. Devanas
 P2.25Global variable resolution Euler model development and application  
Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Roman and L. A. Byerle
 P2.26Influence of ambient flows and topography on the interannual signal and medium-range predictability over the western U.S. during winter  extended abstract
Lee A. Byerle, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Paegle
 P2.27Intercomparison of global research and operational forecasts  extended abstract
Jennifer C. Roman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle
 P2.28Learning from a null derecho event—the convective forecast for 08 July 2003  extended abstract
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE; and R. Adams
 P2.29The influence of highly resolved sea surface temperatures on Meteorological Simulations off the Southeast US Coast  extended abstract
Peter Childs, State Climate Office of North Carolina and North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and R. Boyles
 
11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 6 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:00 AMJ6.1Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system  
F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit
11:15 AMJ6.2Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain  extended abstract wrf recording
Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau
11:30 AMJ6.3Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan  
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei
11:45 AMJ6.4Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel  extended abstract wrf recording
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop
12:00 PMJ6.5Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance  extended abstract
Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco
 
11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606
Session 9 Maximizing the Value of Model Output (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: William F. Bunting, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX
11:00 AM9.1Applications and Implementation of a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction and Visualization System  extended abstract
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and A. P. Praino
11:15 AM9.2Evaluating Potential Impact of Significant East Coast Winter Storms by Analysis of Upper and Low-level Wind Anomalies  extended abstract
Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and R. Grumm
11:30 AM9.3Subjective verification of deterministic models during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program  extended abstract wrf recording
John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, M. Dahmer, and J. Levit
11:45 AM9.4Using 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output in redeveloping the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP)  extended abstract
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack and J. M. Flatley
12:00 PM9.5Using mesoscale model simulations to better understand the role of surface mixed-layer dynamics in fire-weather interactions  extended abstract wrf recording
Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and D. Keyser
 
12:30 PM-6:30 PM, Tuesday
Exhibits Open
 
1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 7 Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PMJ7.1The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC)  extended abstract
David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott
1:45 PMJ7.2A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP  
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
2:00 PMJ7.3AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean  
J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson
2:15 PMJ7.4Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System  extended abstract wrf recording
Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
2:30 PMJ7.5Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II  
Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar
2:45 PMJ7.6Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design  
Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
3:00 PMCoffee Break in Exhibit Hall  
3:30 PMJ7.7Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments  extended abstract wrf recording
John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer
3:45 PMJ7.8Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability  extended abstract wrf recording
Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea
4:00 PMJ7.9Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System  
Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker
4:15 PMJ7.10Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach  
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 607
Session 10 Public Forecast and Warning Issues (ROOM 607)
Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
1:30 PM10.1The Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops  extended abstract wrf recording
Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Mahoney, A. C. Wood, J. G. LaDue, and X. Yu
1:45 PM10.2High Impact Sub-Advisory Snow Events: The Need to Effectively Communicate the Threat of Short Duration High Intensity Snowfall  extended abstract wrf recording
Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA
1:59 PMPaper 10.3 has been moved to Session 5, New Paper Number 5.3A  
2:00 PM10.3aPerformance of various operational and experimental numerical forecasts for the March 2003 Colorado snowstorm (Formerly Paper Number 5.3)  extended abstract wrf recording
Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, P. Schultz, and D. Barjenbruch
2:15 PM10.4Initial Evaluation Results of the Eta, NMM, GFS, SREF, and RUC Models During the 2003 New England High Resolution Temperature Forecast Program  extended abstract wrf recording
James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Zamora, J. W. Bao, I. V. Djalalova, J. T. McQueen, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, G. DiMego, J. Du, B. Zhou, and S. Benjamin
2:30 PM10.5Highlights from the Joint Polarization Experiment operational demonstration  extended abstract wrf recording
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and P. L. Heinselman, D. J. Miller, D. L. Andra, and M. P. Foster
2:45 PM10.6Issues in verification of public forecasts  
Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and E. Abrams and M. A. Steinberg
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606
Session 11 WRF Model Overview and Agency Programs (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PM11.1Overview of the WRF Effort: Partnership, Process and Goals  
John L. Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
1:45 PM11.2Next-Generation Mesoscale Modeling: A Technical Overview Of WRF  
Joseph B. Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO
2:00 PM11.3The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)  
Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Seaman
2:15 PM11.4ON THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE AIR FORCE WEATHER WEAPON SYSTEM'S NEXT GENERATION MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL: THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL (WRF)  extended abstract wrf recording
Mark T. Surmeier, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. W. Wegiel
2:30 PM11.5The Navy role in WRF  
Richard M. Hodur, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle
2:45 PM11.6Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)  
Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606
Session 12 WRF Model Development and Applications (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM12.1Real-time applications of the WRF model at the Forecast Systems Laboratory  extended abstract wrf recording
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. A. McGinley, J. M. Brown, P. Schultz, E. J. Szoke, T. G. Smirnova, B. L. Shaw, D. Birkenheuer, S. Albers, S. E. Peckham, and G. A. Grell
3:45 PM12.2Results of WRF development activities at NCEP  
Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, H. Chuang, J. Derber, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, D. Keyser, M. Pyle, and W. Wu
4:00 PM12.3Implementing the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with local data assimilation in a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO)  
Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and A. Wildman, B. Shaw, J. Smart, P. Ruscher, J. McGinley, B. N. Meisner, and P. Bogenschutz
4:15 PM12.4Real-time explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model during the BAMEX field program  
Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Done, W. Wang, and J. Bresch
4:30 PM12.5Evaluation of Topographic Flow Simulations from COAMPS and WRF  
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA
4:45 PM12.6Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model  extended abstract wrf recording
Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/ Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, R. Schmitz, and S. A. McKeen
5:00 PM12.7The NCEP WRF core  extended abstract wrf recording
Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
5:15 PM12.8Evaluating dissipation in NWP models using kinetic energy spectra  
William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin and W. Wang
5:30 PM12.9The development of the WRF for Hurricanes (HWRF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Formerly Paper number 14.2)  
Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, R. Tuleya, W. Shen, and M. Bender
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 607
Session 13 Tropical and Extratropical Transition Studies (ROOM 607)
Chair: Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
3:30 PM13.1Role of the Gulf Stream on extratropical cyclogenesis  extended abstract
Neil A. Jacobs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, G. M. Lackmann, and P. P. Childs
3:45 PM13.2Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of north Atlantic tropical cyclones as defined by a cyclone phase space  extended abstract
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans
4:00 PM13.3Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis  extended abstract wrf recording
Justin M. Arnott, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans
4:15 PM13.4Method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using TRMM PR/TMI data  extended abstract wrf recording
Shunsuke Hoshino, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa
4:30 PM13.5The importance of the precipitation mass sink in tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard M. Yablonsky, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
4:45 PM13.6Relationship between climatology and model track, bearing, and speed errors  extended abstract wrf recording
Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and C. S. Liou
5:00 PM13.7Impact of the Boundary Layer Processes on Simulated Tropical Rainfall  extended abstract wrf recording
Young-Hwa Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong
5:15 PM13.8Use of Doppler radar data to improve hurricane intensity forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. -. C. Lee, and W. Wang
 
5:30 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day
 
7:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 607
Panel Discussion 1 The Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process—An Interactive Forum
 
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 8 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:30 AMJ8.1On the predictability of flows with many scales  
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:45 AMJ8.2Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles  extended abstract wrf recording
William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue
9:00 AMJ8.3Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric  
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond
9:15 AMJ8.4Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors  
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim
 
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 605/606
Session 14 WRF Model Development and Applications: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM14.1NCEP's nonhydrostatic mesoscale model: Forecast guidance and transition to WRF  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Michalakes
8:44 AM14.2Paper Moved to Session 12, New Paper Number 12.9  
8:45 AM14.2aImplementation and verification of the unified Noah land surface model in the WRF model (Formerly Paper Number 17.5)  extended abstract wrf recording
Mukul Tewari, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, W. Wang, J. Dudhia, M. A. LeMone, K. Mitchell, M. Ek, G. Gayno, J. Wegiel, and R. H. Cuenca
9:00 AM14.3A globally relocatable Numerical Weather Prediction system based on WRF and ADAS  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett, K. A. Brewster, D. Weber, Y. Wang, J. A. Brotzge, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and D. Jahn
9:15 AM14.4A Graphical User Interface to Prepare the Standard Initialization for WRF  extended abstract wrf recording
Paula T. McCaslin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart, B. Shaw, and B. D. Jamison
 
8:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 607
Session 15 Forecasters Forum (ROOM 607)
Organizer: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
Chair: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
 
9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
10:00 AM, Wednesday
Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
 
12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break
 
12:30 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Exhibit Hours
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606
Joint Session 9 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC
1:30 PMJ9.1Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
1:45 PMJ9.2Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System  extended abstract wrf recording
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song
2:00 PMJ9.3Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen
2:15 PMJ9.4Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation  extended abstract wrf recording
Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay
 
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 607
Session 16 Climatologies (ROOM 607)
Chair: Suzanne Van Cooten, NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS
1:30 PM16.1A climatology of large-scale North Pacific cyclones and their predictability  extended abstract wrf recording
Linda M. Keller, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
1:45 PM16.2A climatological study of 100 mm or greater days in northern California  extended abstract wrf recording
Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart
2:00 PM16.3Global climatology of closed 1000–500 hPa thickness highs and lows  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, A. R. Aiyyer, and E. H. Atallah
2:15 PM16.4Cool season tornadoes in the southeast United States: A climatological and case study perspective  extended abstract wrf recording
Alicia C. Wasula, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, R. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, and R. H. Johns
 
1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 10 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PMJ10.1Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker
1:45 PMJ10.2Computing the odds on a good probability forecast  
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom
2:00 PMJ10.3The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century  
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
2:15 PMJ10.4Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment  
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux
2:30 PMJ10.5Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors   wrf recording
Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
 
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Room 4AB
Poster Session 3 Wednesday Posters
 P3.1GOES Data Assimilation in MM5: Application for Texas Air Quality Study 2000  extended abstract
Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. McNider, K. Doty, S. L. Haines, W. Lapenta, R. J. Suggs, and G. Jedlovec
 P3.2The effect of differential cloud cover on the propagation of a surface cold front  extended abstract
James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt
 P3.3The experimental seasonal forecast and recent implementation of NCEP RSM  extended abstract
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Wang and J. Han
 P3.4The distribution of precipitation over the Northeast accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones  extended abstract
David P. DeLuca, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee
 P3.5Development of capability for regional mesoscale ensemble forecasts  
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Zelazny and D. Lu
 P3.6Atmospheric Prognostic and Dispersion Model Design for Use in the European ENSEMBLE Modeling Exercises  extended abstract
Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. P. Addis
 P3.7Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) diabatic initialization of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for the IHOP-2002 field experiment  extended abstract
Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, D. Birkenheuer, J. Brown, J. McGinley, P. Schultz, J. Smart, and E. Szoke
 P3.8Application of Scale-Recursive Estimation to Ensemble Forecasts: A Comparison of Coarse and Fine Resolution Simulations of a Deep Convective Storm  extended abstract
Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou
 P3.9A successful simulation of a strong kona low: What it tells us about the role latent heat  
Steven Businger, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Cherubini
 P3.10A simple model study of regime transition predictability: How do we best make use of a bimodal forecast ensemble?  
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen
 P3.11A comparison of an ensemble of positive/negative pairs and a centered spherical simplex ensemble  extended abstract
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Julier
 P3.12Error Growth and Adaptive Observations  extended abstract
Hyun Mee Kim, MRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and Y. H. Youn and H. S. Chung
 P3.13Identifying state-dependent model error in NWP  
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu
 P3.14On-line Probability Forecasts with DIME  
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics & Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. S. Roulston
 P3.15CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM A GLOBAL NWP MODEL  extended abstract
Paul A. Vaillancourt, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Belair, M. Roch, and A. M. Leduc
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A
Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
4:00 PMJ11.1The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting  
Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith
4:15 PMJ11.2Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?  
W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen
4:30 PMJ11.3On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter
4:45 PMJ11.4Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?  extended abstract wrf recording
Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt
5:00 PMJ11.5Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)  extended abstract wrf recording
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake
5:15 PMJ11.6RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System  extended abstract wrf recording
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606
Session 17 WRF Model Development & Applications: Part III (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:00 PM17.1WRF simulations of rainfall coherence over the continental United States  extended abstract wrf recording
S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, R. E. Carbone, and S. Frederick
4:15 PM17.2The diurnal mode of summer rainfall across the conterminous United States in 10-km simulations by the WRF Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych and K. W. Manning
4:30 PM17.3Testing of a new nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion scheme in numerical weather prediction applications  extended abstract wrf recording
Song-You Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and J. Dudhia
4:45 PM17.4Verification Techniques Appropriate for Cloud-Resolving NWP Models  extended abstract wrf recording
Christopher Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, R. Bullock, M. Chapman, K. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs
5:00 PM17.5Simulation of Landfalling Hurricane Isidore over the Gulf of Mexico Region using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Formerly paper number P2.5)  
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz and M. Vatti
5:15 PM17.6Consideration of diffuse radiation in the Noah Land Surface Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty, H. I. Chang, D. Chen, F. Chen, T. Holt, A. Qureshi, and V. K. Saxena
 
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 607
Session 18 Cyclogenesis and Winter Weather (ROOM 607)
Chair: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
4:00 PM18.1Revisiting noteworthy U.S. east coast storms and explosive cyclones in the western North Atlantic Ocean from 1979–1993: Simulations using data from the NCEP Regional Reanalysis project  extended abstract wrf recording
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and D. Jovic, F. Mesinger, P. Shafran, and G. DiMego
4:15 PM18.2Extratropical Cyclones with Warm Sector Baroclinic Zones and their Relationship to Severe Weather  
Nicholas D. Metz, Oklahoma Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates and Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz and R. Johns
4:30 PM18.3Evaluating the effectiveness of the Warning Decision Training Branch's Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops  extended abstract wrf recording
Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK
4:45 PM18.4Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases  extended abstract wrf recording
Daniel P. St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson, L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and B. Smith
5:00 PM18.5Utilizing Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations to Aid the Prediction of Lake-Effect Snowstorms  extended abstract
Neil F. Laird, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich
5:15 PM18.6Cold-Air Damming: Physical Mechanisms, Synoptic Settings, and Model Representation  extended abstract
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. M. Stanton
 
5:30 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day
 
6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
 
7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet
 
Thursday, 15 January 2004
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 14 Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AMJ14.1The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System: Current status and testing of convective momentum transport in the Emanuel cumulus parameterization  extended abstract wrf recording
Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. F. Peng, J. A. Ridout, Y. J. Kim, J. Teixeira, and R. L. Pauley
8:45 AMJ14.2Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2  
Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass
9:00 AMJ14.3A statistical approach to linear perturbation convective parameterization schemes  
Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada
9:15 AMJ14.4Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES  extended abstract wrf recording
Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao
9:30 AMJ14.5Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance  extended abstract
Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early
 
8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 605/606
Session 19 Transition from Research to Operations (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: John V. Cortinas, Jr., NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM19.1The navy’s on-scene weather prediction system, COAMPS-OSTM  extended abstract
Daniel A. Geiszler, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. Kent, J. L. S. Strahl, J. Cook, G. Love, L. Phegley, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, F. Franco, L. Frost, M. Frost, D. Grant, S. Lowder, D. Martinez, and L. N. McDermid
8:45 AM19.2The VISIT program—transferring research to operations  extended abstract
Daniel T. Lindsey, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Bikos, J. Weaver, and A. Mostek
9:00 AM19.3Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment  extended abstract wrf recording
William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Wohlman, J. T. Bradshaw, G. Jedlovec, S. Goodman, C. Darden, J. Burks, and P. Meyer
9:15 AM19.4Use of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for Space Shuttle weather forecasts at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group  extended abstract wrf recording
Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWSFO, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and B. Hoeth
9:30 AM19.5Collaborative Developments in Severe Weather Prediction in Western Australia  
Bruce William Buckley, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, West Perth, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, L. Qi, and J. LeMarshall
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
 
9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday, Room 4AB
Poster Session 4 Thursday Posters
 P4.1Wet Microburst—Student Training and Role in On-line Bibliography and Event Selection  extended abstract
Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and P. Pyle and S. Blair
 P4.2Proximity Sounding Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events  extended abstract
Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, B. Pettegrew, and R. Thomas
 P4.3Quality controlled surface visibility observations used to validate predicted surface Aerosol concentration for Southwest Asia  extended abstract
Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal and J. S. Reid
 P4.4The second generation of Eta MOS precipitation guidance—does a finer-resolution predictor dataset have an impact?  extended abstract
Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
 P4.5Training for the NWS graphical Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)  
Brian C. Motta, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and S. White, S. Beckman, R. Hamilton, P. Manousos, R. Knabb, L. Maximuk, T. Barker, and T. Hansen
 P4.6Upper Air Constant-Pressure Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events  extended abstract
Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, R. Ebert, and C. Melick
 P4.7Validation Studies of 4DWX Forecasts and Analyses over Northern Utah  
Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT
 P4.8Verification of oceanic weather diagnoses and forecasts for aviation weather elements  extended abstract
Agnes Takacs, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. Mahoney
 P4.9Verification of NCEP Workstation Eta model over east and west Africa  extended abstract
Vadlamani B. Kumar, RS Information Systems Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. B. Laws, G. A. V. Duncan, and W. M. Thiaw
 P4.10On The Use of Radar Observations of Reflectivity in Veryfying Model Hydrometeor Fields  extended abstract
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, J. Schmidt, M. Frost, P. Harasti, and B. Gaudet
 P4.11Wet Microburst—Bibliography, Annotation, Data  extended abstract
Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and A. E. Gerard
 P4.12Opportunities for human forecasters to improve upon model forecasts now and in the future  extended abstract
Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua
P4.132001–2003 Real-time use of cyclone phase diagrams to improve structural forecasting: model-based cyclone phase analysis, forecast, and verification  
Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans
 P4.14Assessing the Impact of Collaborative Research Projects on NWS Warning Performance  extended abstract
Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY
P4.15COAMPS Dust Forecasting for Operation Iraqi Freedom  
Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, K. A. Richardson, S. D. Miller, and T. R. Holt
 P4.16Diagnosis of winter time cold bias in the ETA and NMM Models  extended abstract
Hui-Ya Chuang, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Wong, and Z. Janjic
 P4.17NOGAPS Tendencies in Forecasting Central Surface Pressure of Mid-Latitude Cyclones  extended abstract
Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
 P4.18Evaluation of NCEP operational model forecasts of surface wind and pressure fields over the oceans  extended abstract
T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washingon, DC; and V. M. Gerald
 P4.19Improving the Great Lakes 30-day ice forecast  
Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC
 P4.20A comparison of FSU2, NCEPR1, and NCEPR2 winds in the Tropical Pacific  extended abstract
Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Romero and M. A. Bourassa
 P4.21Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP  extended abstract
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, F. Caracena, S. E. Koch, D. L. Bartels, R. M. Hardesty, B. J. McCarty, C. Kiemle, and G. Ehret
 P4.22Precipitation Forecasts Using the BFM and MM5  extended abstract
Jeffrey E. Passner, U. S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM
 P4.23Towards an operational Canadian global coupled assimilation and modelling capacity  extended abstract
C. Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and D. Bancroft, A. Cameron, and K. Thompson
 
11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Session 20 Forecast Automation (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Ronald J. Miller, NOAA/NWSFO, Spokane, WA
11:00 AM20.1Assessing the utility of an automated 0-1 h thunderstorm product for air traffic managers  extended abstract
Dennis M. Rodgers, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Pratt, L. Sherretz, T. Amis, Y. S. Chun, and J. T. Frimel
11:15 AM20.2Navigating Across Lake Paradigm: One Forecast Office's Experiences in Successfully Transforming Operations to Meet the Demands of the NDFD  extended abstract
Joseph DelliCarpini, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and D. R. Vallee
11:30 AM20.3Operational issues with a national digital forecast database  
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and K. Reeves and M. A. Steinberg
11:45 AM20.4Utah's 100 Inch Snowstorm: Structure, orographic precipitation processes, and implications for the NWS IFPS era  
W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
12:00 PM20.5Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Versus Model Output Statistics  extended abstract
Jeffrey A. Baars, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and M. Albright
 
11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606
Session 21 Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
11:00 AM21.1Performance of ensemble forecasts with multiple versions of NCEP's GFS model  
Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus
11:15 AM21.2On the need for perturbed LBCs in limited-area ensemble forecasts  extended abstract
Paul Nutter, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and D. Stensrud
11:30 AM21.3The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach  extended abstract
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton
11:45 AM21.4A non-linear fuzzy set technique for combining precipitation forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Brian P. Mackey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
12:00 PM21.5Ensemble methods for seasonal limited-area forecasts  extended abstract
Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. al
 
11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Room 607
Session 22 Land Surface Processes (ROOM 607)
Chair: Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM22.14DVAR Assimilation of Ground Temperature for the Estimation of Soil Moisture and Temperature  extended abstract wrf recording
Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
11:15 AM22.2Improvements to surface flux computations in a non-local-mixing PBL scheme, and refinements to urban processes in the NOAH land-surface model with the NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast system  extended abstract wrf recording
Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, J. Bowers, and S. Halvorson
11:30 AM22.3development of high resolution land data assimilation system and its application to WRF  extended abstract wrf recording
Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. W. Manning, D. N. Yates, M. A. LeMone, S. B. Trier, R. Cuenca, and D. Niyogi
11:45 AM22.4Impacts of perturbed soil moisture conditions on short range ensemble variability  extended abstract wrf recording
Christian J. Sutton, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill
 
12:15 PM-1:45 PM, Thursday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 12 Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON Canada; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PMJ12.1Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida  extended abstract
P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen
1:45 PMJ12.2Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective  
J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro
2:00 PMJ12.3The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system  extended abstract
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli
2:15 PMJ12.4An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology  extended abstract
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss
2:30 PMJ12.5An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples  extended abstract
Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs
2:45 PMJ12.6Bias normalized precipitation scores  extended abstract
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606
Session 23 Ensemble Forecasting: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
1:30 PM23.1An Eta model precipitation type mini-ensemble for winter weather forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill and B. Ferrier
1:45 PM23.2An investigation of the mesoscale predictability over the Northeast U.S  extended abstract wrf recording
Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones, J. S. Tongue, and J. B. Olson
2:00 PM23.3CONSTRUCTION OF AN ENSEMBLE OF FORECASTS USING ADJOINT-DERIVED SENSITIVITIES  extended abstract wrf recording
Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist
2:15 PM23.4Evaluation of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts during the SPC/NSSL 2003 Spring Program  extended abstract wrf recording
Jason J. Levit, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, D. R. Bright, and S. J. Weiss
2:30 PM23.5Flow-Dependent Calibration of Ensemble Spread Using Forecast Spectra  extended abstract
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Baumhefner
2:45 PM23.6High-Resolution Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts of the March 28, 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storms  extended abstract
Nicki L. Levit, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier and F. Kong
 
3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
 
3:00 PM, Thursday
Registration Desk Closes
 
3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A
Joint Session 13 Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A)
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
3:30 PMJ13.1MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool  extended abstract
Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss
3:45 PMJ13.2A global version of MM5: Method and verification  extended abstract
Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch
4:00 PMJ13.3Verifying mesoscale model precipitation forecasts using an acuity-fidelity approach  extended abstract
Stephen F. Marshall, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and T. A. Hutchinson
4:15 PMJ13.4Use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to verify IHOP QPF as a function of convective system morphology  extended abstract
Jeremy S. Grams, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, L. S. Wharton, S. Koch, E. E. Ebert, and A. Loughe
4:30 PMJ13.5Composite-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model  extended abstract
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen and J. Schmidt
4:45 PMJ13.6Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP  extended abstract
Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and B. Shaw
 
3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606
Session 24 Forecast Uncertainty (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Nicholas A. Bond, JISAO/Univ. of Washington and NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
3:30 PM24.1Predictive reliability and the scale-bridging capacity of nested models  
Ana P. Barros, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and K. -. C. Harm and S. Chiao
3:45 PM24.2Numerical forecast accuracy over the Northeast Pacific: Model intercomparison and cases of major failures  
Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
4:00 PM24.3Forecasting Mesoscale Uncertainty: Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Error Predictability  extended abstract wrf recording
Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
4:15 PM24.4Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model  
Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Schultz and M. Baldwin
4:30 PM24.5The risks and rewards of high resolution and ensemble numerical weather prediction  
Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud
4:45 PM24.6A comparison of MM5, WRF, RUC, and Eta performance for Great Plains Heavy Precipitation Events during the Spring of 2003  extended abstract wrf recording
Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson and S. F. Marshall
 
3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 607
Session 25 Model Numerics
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE
3:30 PM25.1The use of a cartesian terrain-intersecting grid in a Fourier-based solution of the Helmholtz problem of an implicit nonhydrostatic forecast model  extended abstract
R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Thomas
3:45 PM25.2A fully-implicit semi-Lagrangian nonhydrostatic model employing a pressure-hybrid vertical coordinate  extended abstract
Sajal K. Kar, I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Kensington, MD; and R. J. Purser, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and G. J. Dimego
4:00 PM25.3Application of the Rapid Update Cycle at 10-13 km—Initial testing  extended abstract wrf recording
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, K. Brundage, S. S. Weygandt, G. A. Grell, J. M. Brown, D. Devenyi, B. M. Schwartz, and T. L. Smith
4:15 PM25.4Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution  extended abstract wrf recording
Da-lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and X. Wang
4:30 PM25.5Development of Fully Parallelized Regional Spectral Model at NCEP  extended abstract wrf recording
Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang
4:45 PM25.6Sparse Matrix Techniques for Coupling Independent Hydrological and Meteorological Models  extended abstract wrf recording
Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and C. Peters-Lidard
 
5:00 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends
 

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