Saturday, 10 January 2004 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Student Conference Registration |
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Sunday, 11 January 2004 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course Registration |
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| 9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration |
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Monday, 12 January 2004 |
| 7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January |
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| 9:00 AM-12:15 PM, Monday, Room 6A Joint Session 1 Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
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| 9:00 AM | | Welcoming Remarks
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| 9:15 AM | J1.2 | THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO |
| 9:45 AM | J1.3 | Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish |
| 10:00 AM | J1.4 | Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth |
| 10:15 AM | | Coffee Break in Poster session room
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| 10:45 AM | J1.5 | Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu |
| 11:00 AM | J1.6 | An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu |
| 11:15 AM | J1.7 | Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin |
| 11:30 AM | J1.8 | The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos |
| 11:45 AM | J1.9 | Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou |
| 12:00 PM | J1.10 | Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF) Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth |
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| 9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 1 Opening Session (ROOM 605/606) |
Cochairs: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
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| 9:00 AM | | Welcoming Remarks: Ed Bensman and Mary Cairns, Program Co-chairpersons
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| 9:15 AM | 1.1 | MODIS Winds in NAVDAS Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley |
| 9:30 AM | 1.2 | Applying the new Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to National Weather Service forecast office operations Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Smart, J. McGinley, M. Kay, J. Mahoney, P. Welsh, P. Bogenschutz, P. Ruscher, J. Savadel, and A. Wildman |
| 9:45 AM | 1.3 | Grid-Based Bias Removal For Mesoscale Model Forecasts Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed |
| 10:00 AM | 1.4 | Verification of NDFD Gridded Forecasts in the Western United States John D. Horel, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Colman and M. Jackson |
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| 10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room |
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| 10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 2 Analysis Techniques (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO
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| 10:45 AM | 2.1 | Snowin' to Beat The Band: Using Satellite Imagery and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Output to Diagnose the Rapid Development of A Mesoscale Snow Band David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and E. Vallier-Talbot |
| 11:00 AM | 2.2 | Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. L. Haines, R. J. Suggs, T. Bradshaw, C. Darden, and J. E. Burks |
| 11:15 AM | 2.3 | A Fresh Look at Persistent Ridging in the North Pacfic John M. Papineau, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK |
| 11:30 AM | 2.4 | Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik |
| 11:45 AM | 2.5 | Assimilation of MODIS temperature and water vapor profiles into a mesoscale analysis system ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Bradley T. Zavodsky, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Lazarus, P. F. Blottman, and D. W. Sharp |
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| 10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 619/620 Session 3 Verification Studies (ROOM 619/620) |
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA
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| 10:45 AM | 3.1 | On the determination of forecast errors arising from different components of model physics and dynamics ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Sanjay, A. K. Mitra, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar |
| 10:59 AM | 3.2 | Paper moved to Session 7, New Paper number 7.5A
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| 11:00 AM | 3.2a | A Numerical Model Investigation of Intensity Forecast Error for Hurricane Lili (2002) (Formerly paper number 7.5) Yi Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou |
| 11:15 AM | 3.3 | Ongoing assessment of GPS-IPW impact on RUC forecasts ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and S. Sahm |
| 11:30 AM | 3.4 | The impact of model resolution improvements and statistical forecast techniques on mesoscale prediction during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games Kenneth A. Hart, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert |
| 11:45 AM | 3.5 | Validation of MM5 for evolution of cold fronts approaching the Gulf of Mexico Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and K. Davenport |
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| 10:45 AM-11:45 AM, Monday, Room 607 Session 4 Convection (ROOM 607) |
Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
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| 10:45 AM | 4.1 | Convection in BAMEX during an active subtropical jet period Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Galarneau, Jr. |
| ![](http://www.confex.com/static/images/flag.png) | 4.2 | Toward understanding and predicting rapid changes in convective inhibition John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin, M. S. Bukovsky, and M. E. Baldwin |
| 11:00 AM | 4.3 | The impact of choice of convective scheme on synoptic features in the NCEP Eta model ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD |
| 11:15 AM | 4.4 | Evaluation of an Improved Convection Triggering Mechanism in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2 Under CAPT Framework ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Shaocheng Xie, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. S. Boyle, R. T. Cederwall, G. L. Potter, and M. Zhang |
| 11:30 AM | 4.5 | Impact of Turbulent Liquid Water Flux on Cloud Microphysics in Mesoscale Models ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt and J. C. Golaz |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 6A Joint Session 2 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
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| 1:30 PM | J2.1 | Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill |
| 1:45 PM | J2.2 | Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara |
| 2:00 PM | J2.3 | The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC/JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo |
| 2:15 PM | J2.4 | A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 5 Case Studies (ROOM 605/606) |
| 1:30 PM | 5.1 | The St. Patrick’s Day Snowstorm, 2002, Anchorage, Alaska ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Joel C. Curtis, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and J. M. Papineau, C. A. Scott, and K. Johnson |
| 1:45 PM | 5.2 | Using low-level precipitable hydrometeor mixing ratios from the MM5 to determine precipitation type: Ohio valley cases from the 2002–2003 winter ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Chris Smallcomb, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and T. Sturey |
| 1:59 PM | | Paper 5.3 has been moved to Session 10, New Paper Number 10.3A
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| 2:00 PM | 5.3a | Mesoscale model simulations in Quasi-forecast mode of the great western storm of 16–20 March 2003 (Formerly Paper Number 10.3) ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Poulos, J. Snook, E. Szoke, M. P. Meyers, G. Byrd, R. A. Rozumalski, and H. McIntyre |
| 2:15 PM | 5.4 | Model Dynamic and Microphysical Verification of the 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE 2 Case Matthew Garvert, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. A. Colle, C. Mass, and C. P. Woods |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 619/620 Session 6 Model Output Statistics (MOS) (ROOM 619/620) |
Chair: Ronald Miller, NOAA/NWS, Spokane, WA
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| 1:30 PM | 6.1 | Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. C. Erickson and J. C. Maloney |
| 1:45 PM | 6.2 | Adjusting model output statistics (MOS) surface temperature forecasts using multiple linear regression and Kalman filtering Andrew A. Taylor, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. B. Richman |
| 2:00 PM | 6.3 | Producing MOS Snowfall Amount Forecasts from Cooperative Observer Reports Rebecca L. Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Sfanos |
| 2:15 PM | 6.4 | Are Model Output Statistics still needed? ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA; and K. A. Hanson |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Room 4AB Poster Session 1 Monday Posters |
| | P1.1 | Simulation of the 27 May 1997 central Texas tornadic storms: Cell development and the role of the preexisting boundary Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. S. Gilmore and R. B. Wilhelmson |
| | P1.2 | Severe weather outbreak over Phoenix, Arizona, on 14 July 2002 G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and E. S. Pytlak |
| | P1.3 | Role of Tropical Cyclone in Southern China on the Heavy Rainfall over Korea Kye-Hwan Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong |
| | P1.4 | Preliminary results of a real time, time to space conversion for surface analysis James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt |
| | P1.5 | Orographic effect on heavy rainfall in the east coast of the Korean Peninsula induced by a tropical cyclone Seon K. Park, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; and E. Lee, D. E. Chang, and L. Leslie |
| | P1.6 | Winter storm forecasting as a two-step process: the 26–27 November 2001 snowstorm Martin A. Baxter, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng, C. E. Graves, and J. T. Moore |
| | P1.7 | Numerical modelling of the 31 May 1998 severe bow echo James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt |
| | P1.8 | Large scale regime transition and its relationship to significant cool season precipitation events in the Northeast Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. Grumm |
| | P1.9 | Insights into Columbia Gorge Gap Flow through High Resolution Simulations of Actual and Idealized Events Justin Sharp, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass |
| | P1.10 | Initial and Boundary Conditions for a Limited Area Ensemble Kalman Filter Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim and C. Snyder |
| | P1.11 | Improved tropical cyclone prediction using 4-D variational assimilation of high-resolution satellite and radar data Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. F. LeMarshall |
| | P1.12 | Mesoscale variational assimilation of profiling radiometer data Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and C. Grassotti and R. Ware |
| | P1.13 | Assimilation of ground-based GPS PWV with 3DVAR system for a IHOP case Y.-R. Guo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Kusaka, D. M. Barker, Y. -. H. Kuo, and A. Crook |
| | P1.14 | Support of the Air Force Weather Agency's Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) and Cloud Depiction Forecast System-II (CDFS-II): A Current Status Report Fritz VanWijngaarden, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, S. Bellevue, NE; and M. Kaufman, A. Ronn, and R. S. Penc |
| | P1.15 | Verification of mesoscale modeling for the heavy rainfall event of May 12, 2000 over southern Ontario Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada |
| | P1.16 | Using the COAMPSTM adjoint modeling system to forecast a tropical cyclone Clark M. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou |
| | P1.17 | Understanding the Analysis Error Pattern of a 3DVAR System Using Streamfunction and Velocity Potential Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO |
| ![](http://www.confex.com/static/images/flag.png) | P1.18 | Tools used in the analysis of tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD |
| | P1.19 | The Steepness Limit to Validity of Approximations to Pressure Gradient Force: any Signs of an Impact? Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD |
| | P1.20 | The RUC 3dvar: Operational performance and recent improvements Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt |
| | P1.21 | The planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland |
| | P1.22 | The Influence of Lake Michigan on a Wintertime Cold Front Joseph G. Dreher, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich |
| | P1.23 | The Impact of Assimilating GPS-PW data using WRF-3DVAR on a Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP Hiroyuki Kusaka, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and Y. R. Guo, A. Crook, D. M. Barker, and H. Hirakuchi |
| | P1.24 | Terrain effetcs on the simulation of heavy rainfall occured at the Jiri mountain area of the Korean peninsula Mee-Hyun Jo, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim |
| | P1.25 | The global 3DVAR system of Korea Meteorological Administration Sang-Won Joo, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H. C. Shin and W. J. Lee |
| | P1.26 | A Modification to the Bratseth Method of Successive Corrections for Complex Terrain David T. Myrick, University of Utah, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and S. M. Lazarus |
| | P1.27 | An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical cyclones Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart |
| | P1.28 | Access to real-time and retrospective Numerical Weather Prediction models at the National Climatic Data Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert and W. T. Smith |
| | P1.29 | A reanalysis of Hurricane Hazel (1954) Scott R. Weese, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum |
| | P1.30 | A multi-scale analysis of the end of the millennium snowstorm Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and A. C. Wasula and L. F. Bosart |
| | P1.31 | A Finite-Volume Mass- and Vorticity-conserving Solver of the Shallow-Water Equations on the Sphere using Penta-/Hexagonal Grids William Sawyer, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland |
| | P1.32 | A different beast: An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the Intermountain region of the Western United States Jason C. Shafer, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West |
| | P1.33 | A composite study of precipitation distribution in U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari |
| | P1.34 | A Comparison of Satellite and Sounding Derived Cloud Top Temperatures Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Bateman and B. C. Bernstein |
| | P1.35 | A 4DVAR Analysis of the Febraury 7–8, 2002 Oregon Cyclone Brian C. Ancell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass |
| | P1.36 | Impact of mesoscale data, cloud analysis on the explicit prediction of an MCS during IHOP 2002 Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue |
| | P1.37 | Are there weather holes? An objective analysis Matthew D. Parker, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. C. Knievel |
| | P1.38 | Generation of improved land-surface data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie, J. Merchant, A. Taylor, C. Godfrey, and R. Bonifaz |
| | P1.39 | Flash flooding during a severe drought situation: a case study of the 2002 Ogallala, NE event Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe, D. B. Radell, and J. R. McCormick |
| | P1.40 | Estimation of observation impact using the NAVDAS adjoint system Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker |
| | P1.41 | Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season Numeical QPF be Improved? William Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. Hoch, B. Shaw, and S. Dembek |
| | P1.42 | Data Assimilation using Weather Research and Forecasting Model: An Effort to Improve Fine-Scale Modeling R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz, M. A. Askelsen, and L. Osborne |
| | P1.43 | Convective Towers in Eyewalls of Tropical Cyclones Observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar in 1998–2001 Owen A. Kelley, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Stout |
| | P1.44 | Cold season 500 hPa cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution and a case study Anthony R. Fracasso, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. Evans |
| | P1.45 | Coherent global intraseasonal oscillation deduced by CSEOF Baek-Min Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim and K. Y. Kim |
| | P1.46 | Case studies of warm season cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution Jessica S. Najuch, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. Wasula, and K. LaPenta |
| | P1.47 | Assimilation of surface cloud, visibility, and current weather observations in the RUC Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, B. Schwartz, and W. R. Moninger |
| | P1.48 | Use of TMI and SSM/I data in JMA Operational Meso-Analysis Yoshiaki Sato, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Takeuchi and T. Tauchi |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 3AB Joint Session 3 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB) |
Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3, Greenbelt, MD
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| 4:00 PM | J3.1 | Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski |
| 4:15 PM | J3.2 | Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu |
| 4:30 PM | J3.3 | Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell |
| 4:45 PM | J3.4 | Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue |
| 5:00 PM | J3.5 | Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder |
| 5:15 PM | J3.6 | Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 619/620 Session 7 Verification Studies: Part II (ROOM 619/620) |
Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE
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| 4:00 PM | 7.1 | Forecasters' evaluation of the Integrated Turbulence Forecast Algorithm (ITFA), winter 2003 ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Matthew Kelsch, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and C. Fischer and J. L. Mahoney |
| 4:15 PM | 7.2 | Objective evaluation of NCEP/GFS precipitation forecast Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD |
| 4:30 PM | 7.3 | Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States during Winter 2002–2003 by the RSM Ensemble System Huiling Yuan, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. M. H. Juang |
| 4:45 PM | 7.4 | Verification of the FSL ensemble of mesoscale models used for a winter weather application ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO |
| 4:59 PM | 7.5 | Paper moved to Session 3, new paper number 3.2A
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| 5:00 PM | 7.5a | Comparing rawinsonde and model soundings to improve aircraft icing forecasts (Formerly Paper number 3.2) ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Cory A. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 5:15 PM | 7.6 | A validation of the NCEP SREF ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Andrew J. Hamm, Northland College, Ashland, WI; and K. L. Elmore |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 8 Case Studies: Part II (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
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| 4:00 PM | 8.1 | A forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within developing extratropical cyclones ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Waldstreicher, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser |
| 4:15 PM | 8.2 | Analysis of the Texas Norther: Case Study ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA |
| 4:30 PM | 8.3 | The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. east coast snowstorm Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann |
| 4:45 PM | 8.4 | Assessing the impact of meteorological conditions upon tornado evolution during 4 May 2003 tornado outbreak Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and G. Koch, M. Stoflet, and S. M. Fortin |
| 5:00 PM | 8.5 | Diagnosis and Prediction of the 3–4 June 2002 Iowa-Illinois Flood James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. A. Wolf, B. L. Mickelson, J. A. Zogg, and C. E. Graves |
| 5:15 PM | 8.6 | March 12–13th, "Bora" Windstorm across much of South-Central Alaska Carven A. Scott, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and S. E. Baines and J. P. Papineau |
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| 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar) |
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| 5:30 PM, Monday Sessions end for the Day |
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| 7:15 PM, Monday Fred Sanders Banquet |
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Tuesday, 13 January 2004 |
| 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 4 Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
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| 8:30 AM | J4.1 | Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO |
| 8:45 AM | J4.2 | Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD |
| 9:00 AM | J4.3 | Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002 ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. -. Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H. -. Y. Chun |
| 9:15 AM | J4.4 | Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo |
| 9:30 AM | J4.5 | The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli |
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| 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Joint Session 5 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606) |
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
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| 8:30 AM | J5.1 | A scheme for the characterization and synthesis of anisotropic background error covariances suitable for adaptive variational assimilation R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD |
| 8:45 AM | J5.2 | Assimilation experiments at NCEP designed to test quality control procedures and effective scale resolutions for QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and W. H. Gemmill |
| 9:00 AM | J5.3 | 3DVAR retrieval of 3D moisture field from slant-path water vapor observations of high-resolution hypothetical GPS network Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue |
| 9:15 AM | J5.4 | 4D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil |
| 9:30 AM | J5.5 | The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff |
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| 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break. |
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| 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday, Room 4AB Poster Session 2 Tuesday Posters |
| | P2.1 | Redistribution of angular momentum in a global forecast model due to change in drag parameterizations Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan |
| | P2.2 | The importance of moisture profile with vertical wind shear in the dynamics of mid-latitude squall lines Tetsuya Takemi, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan |
| | P2.3 | The impact of cloud microphysics on the surface solar radiation Hsin-mu Lin, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Ferrier, Y. T. Hou, E. Rogers, K. E. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, and J. Meng |
| | P2.4 | Sub-Grid Scale Mountain Blocking at NCEP Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD |
| | P2.5 | Paper Moved to Session 17, New paper Number 17.5A
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| | P2.6 | Recent advances in supercell modeling Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and D. J. Stensrud |
| | P2.7 | Prognostic ozone in NOGAPS Douglas Allen, NRL, Washington, DC; and L. Coy, S. Eckermann, J. McCormack, T. Hogan, and Y. J. Kim |
| | P2.8 | The MURI Uncertainty Monitor (MUM) David W. Jones, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Joslyn |
| | P2.9 | The operational implications of forecasting a heavy snow event over the central Rockies in an atypical flow regime Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO; and J. D. Colton, R. L. McAnelly, W. R. Cotton, D. A. Wesley, J. S. Snook, and G. S. Poulos |
| | P2.10 | Tornadic Supercell Outbreaks in the Southern Great Plains Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. Brooks |
| | P2.11 | The WRF-single-moment-microphysics scheme and its evaluation of the simulation of mesoscale convective systems Jeong-Ock Jade Lim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong and J. Dudhia |
| | P2.12 | Towards evaluating surface heat flux parameterizations from a large-scale perspective: Arctic Ocean example Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL |
| | P2.13 | Winter forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modelling system in the northeast U.S.—winter 2002–2003 Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish |
| | P2.14 | Using PV concepts to diagnose a poorly-predicted heavy snow band in New England (6–7 January 2003) Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and P. Sisson |
| | P2.15 | Operational forecasting of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) Walt McKeown, Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA |
| | P2.16 | Numerically Simulated Interactions Between a Precipitating Synoptic System and Lake-Effect Snowbands over Lake Michigan Katy L. Fitzpatrick, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich |
| | P2.17 | A standard test set for nonhydrostatic dynamical cores of NWP models William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Doyle, P. Clark, and N. Wood |
| | P2.18 | An experiment in probabilistic quantitative snowfall forecasting Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and M. P. DeLisi |
| | P2.19 | An investigation of IHOP convective system predictability using a matrix of 19 WRF members Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, B. Shaw, and S. E. Koch |
| | P2.20 | Model Applications to the Hawaiian Islands DaNa L. Carlis, NOAA/Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris |
| | P2.21 | Comparison between Regional Spectral Model and high-resolution global circulation model in North American Monsoon simulation Yucheng Song, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and K. Mo |
| | P2.22 | Development of a New Land-Surface Model for JMA-GSM Masayuki Hirai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Ohizumi |
| | P2.23 | Evaluating surface weather variables predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the western United States William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh |
| | P2.24 | Evaluation of the National Marine Verification Program at WFO Key West Matt C. Parke, NOAA/NWSFO, Key West, FL; and A. Devanas |
| | P2.25 | Global variable resolution Euler model development and application Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Roman and L. A. Byerle |
| | P2.26 | Influence of ambient flows and topography on the interannual signal and medium-range predictability over the western U.S. during winter Lee A. Byerle, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Paegle |
| | P2.27 | Intercomparison of global research and operational forecasts Jennifer C. Roman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle |
| | P2.28 | Learning from a null derecho event—the convective forecast for 08 July 2003 Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE; and R. Adams |
| | P2.29 | The influence of highly resolved sea surface temperatures on Meteorological Simulations off the Southeast US Coast Peter Childs, State Climate Office of North Carolina and North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and R. Boyles |
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| 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 6 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 11:00 AM | J6.1 | Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit |
| 11:15 AM | J6.2 | Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau |
| 11:30 AM | J6.3 | Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei |
| 11:45 AM | J6.4 | Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop |
| 12:00 PM | J6.5 | Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco |
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| 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Session 9 Maximizing the Value of Model Output (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: William F. Bunting, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX
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| 11:00 AM | 9.1 | Applications and Implementation of a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction and Visualization System Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and A. P. Praino |
| 11:15 AM | 9.2 | Evaluating Potential Impact of Significant East Coast Winter Storms by Analysis of Upper and Low-level Wind Anomalies Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and R. Grumm |
| 11:30 AM | 9.3 | Subjective verification of deterministic models during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, M. Dahmer, and J. Levit |
| 11:45 AM | 9.4 | Using 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output in redeveloping the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP) Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack and J. M. Flatley |
| 12:00 PM | 9.5 | Using mesoscale model simulations to better understand the role of surface mixed-layer dynamics in fire-weather interactions ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and D. Keyser |
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| 12:30 PM-6:30 PM, Tuesday Exhibits Open |
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| 1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 7 Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
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| 1:30 PM | J7.1 | The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC) David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott |
| 1:45 PM | J7.2 | A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD |
| 2:00 PM | J7.3 | AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson |
| 2:15 PM | J7.4 | Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL |
| 2:30 PM | J7.5 | Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar |
| 2:45 PM | J7.6 | Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ |
| 3:00 PM | | Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
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| 3:30 PM | J7.7 | Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer |
| 3:45 PM | J7.8 | Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea |
| 4:00 PM | J7.9 | Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker |
| 4:15 PM | J7.10 | Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 607 Session 10 Public Forecast and Warning Issues (ROOM 607) |
Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
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| 1:30 PM | 10.1 | The Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Mahoney, A. C. Wood, J. G. LaDue, and X. Yu |
| 1:45 PM | 10.2 | High Impact Sub-Advisory Snow Events: The Need to Effectively Communicate the Threat of Short Duration High Intensity Snowfall ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA |
| 1:59 PM | | Paper 10.3 has been moved to Session 5, New Paper Number 5.3A
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| 2:00 PM | 10.3a | Performance of various operational and experimental numerical forecasts for the March 2003 Colorado snowstorm (Formerly Paper Number 5.3) ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, P. Schultz, and D. Barjenbruch |
| 2:15 PM | 10.4 | Initial Evaluation Results of the Eta, NMM, GFS, SREF, and RUC Models During the 2003 New England High Resolution Temperature Forecast Program ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Zamora, J. W. Bao, I. V. Djalalova, J. T. McQueen, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, G. DiMego, J. Du, B. Zhou, and S. Benjamin |
| 2:30 PM | 10.5 | Highlights from the Joint Polarization Experiment operational demonstration ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and P. L. Heinselman, D. J. Miller, D. L. Andra, and M. P. Foster |
| 2:45 PM | 10.6 | Issues in verification of public forecasts Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and E. Abrams and M. A. Steinberg |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Session 11 WRF Model Overview and Agency Programs (ROOM 605/606) |
Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP, Silver Spring, MD
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| 1:30 PM | 11.1 | Overview of the WRF Effort: Partnership, Process and Goals John L. Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| 1:45 PM | 11.2 | Next-Generation Mesoscale Modeling: A Technical Overview Of WRF Joseph B. Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 2:00 PM | 11.3 | The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Seaman |
| 2:15 PM | 11.4 | ON THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE AIR FORCE WEATHER WEAPON SYSTEM'S NEXT GENERATION MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL: THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL (WRF) ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Mark T. Surmeier, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. W. Wegiel |
| 2:30 PM | 11.5 | The Navy role in WRF Richard M. Hodur, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle |
| 2:45 PM | 11.6 | Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
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| 3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Session 12 WRF Model Development and Applications (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 3:30 PM | 12.1 | Real-time applications of the WRF model at the Forecast Systems Laboratory ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. A. McGinley, J. M. Brown, P. Schultz, E. J. Szoke, T. G. Smirnova, B. L. Shaw, D. Birkenheuer, S. Albers, S. E. Peckham, and G. A. Grell |
| 3:45 PM | 12.2 | Results of WRF development activities at NCEP Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, H. Chuang, J. Derber, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, D. Keyser, M. Pyle, and W. Wu |
| 4:00 PM | 12.3 | Implementing the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with local data assimilation in a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and A. Wildman, B. Shaw, J. Smart, P. Ruscher, J. McGinley, B. N. Meisner, and P. Bogenschutz |
| 4:15 PM | 12.4 | Real-time explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model during the BAMEX field program Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Done, W. Wang, and J. Bresch |
| 4:30 PM | 12.5 | Evaluation of Topographic Flow Simulations from COAMPS and WRF James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA |
| 4:45 PM | 12.6 | Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/ Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, R. Schmitz, and S. A. McKeen |
| 5:00 PM | 12.7 | The NCEP WRF core ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD |
| 5:15 PM | 12.8 | Evaluating dissipation in NWP models using kinetic energy spectra William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin and W. Wang |
| 5:30 PM | 12.9 | The development of the WRF for Hurricanes (HWRF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Formerly Paper number 14.2) Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, R. Tuleya, W. Shen, and M. Bender |
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| 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 607 Session 13 Tropical and Extratropical Transition Studies (ROOM 607) |
Chair: Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
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| 3:30 PM | 13.1 | Role of the Gulf Stream on extratropical cyclogenesis Neil A. Jacobs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, G. M. Lackmann, and P. P. Childs |
| 3:45 PM | 13.2 | Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of north Atlantic tropical cyclones as defined by a cyclone phase space Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans |
| 4:00 PM | 13.3 | Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Justin M. Arnott, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans |
| 4:15 PM | 13.4 | Method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using TRMM PR/TMI data ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Shunsuke Hoshino, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa |
| 4:30 PM | 13.5 | The importance of the precipitation mass sink in tropical cyclones ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Richard M. Yablonsky, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann |
| 4:45 PM | 13.6 | Relationship between climatology and model track, bearing, and speed errors ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and C. S. Liou |
| 5:00 PM | 13.7 | Impact of the Boundary Layer Processes on Simulated Tropical Rainfall ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Young-Hwa Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong |
| 5:15 PM | 13.8 | Use of Doppler radar data to improve hurricane intensity forecasts ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. -. C. Lee, and W. Wang |
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| 5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions end for the day |
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| 7:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 607 Panel Discussion 1 The Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process—An Interactive Forum |
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Wednesday, 14 January 2004 |
| 8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 8 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO
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| 8:30 AM | J8.1 | On the predictability of flows with many scales Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 8:45 AM | J8.2 | Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue |
| 9:00 AM | J8.3 | Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond |
| 9:15 AM | J8.4 | Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim |
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| 8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Session 14 WRF Model Development and Applications: Part II (ROOM 605/606) |
Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP, Silver Spring, MD
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| 8:30 AM | 14.1 | NCEP's nonhydrostatic mesoscale model: Forecast guidance and transition to WRF ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Michalakes |
| 8:44 AM | 14.2 | Paper Moved to Session 12, New Paper Number 12.9
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| 8:45 AM | 14.2a | Implementation and verification of the unified Noah land surface model in the WRF model (Formerly Paper Number 17.5) ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Mukul Tewari, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, W. Wang, J. Dudhia, M. A. LeMone, K. Mitchell, M. Ek, G. Gayno, J. Wegiel, and R. H. Cuenca |
| 9:00 AM | 14.3 | A globally relocatable Numerical Weather Prediction system based on WRF and ADAS ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett, K. A. Brewster, D. Weber, Y. Wang, J. A. Brotzge, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and D. Jahn |
| 9:15 AM | 14.4 | A Graphical User Interface to Prepare the Standard Initialization for WRF ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Paula T. McCaslin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart, B. Shaw, and B. D. Jamison |
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| 8:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 607 Session 15 Forecasters Forum (ROOM 607) |
Organizer: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
Chair: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
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| 9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break |
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| 10:00 AM, Wednesday Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB) |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break |
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| 12:30 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Joint Session 9 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606) |
Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC
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| 1:30 PM | J9.1 | Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD |
| 1:45 PM | J9.2 | Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song |
| 2:00 PM | J9.3 | Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen |
| 2:15 PM | J9.4 | Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 607 Session 16 Climatologies (ROOM 607) |
Chair: Suzanne Van Cooten, NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS
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| 1:30 PM | 16.1 | A climatology of large-scale North Pacific cyclones and their predictability ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Linda M. Keller, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan |
| 1:45 PM | 16.2 | A climatological study of 100 mm or greater days in northern California ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart |
| 2:00 PM | 16.3 | Global climatology of closed 1000–500 hPa thickness highs and lows ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, A. R. Aiyyer, and E. H. Atallah |
| 2:15 PM | 16.4 | Cool season tornadoes in the southeast United States: A climatological and case study perspective ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Alicia C. Wasula, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, R. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, and R. H. Johns |
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| 1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 10 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A) |
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
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| 1:30 PM | J10.1 | Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker |
| 1:45 PM | J10.2 | Computing the odds on a good probability forecast Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom |
| 2:00 PM | J10.3 | The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA |
| 2:15 PM | J10.4 | Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux |
| 2:30 PM | J10.5 | Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB) |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Room 4AB Poster Session 3 Wednesday Posters |
| | P3.1 | GOES Data Assimilation in MM5: Application for Texas Air Quality Study 2000 Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. McNider, K. Doty, S. L. Haines, W. Lapenta, R. J. Suggs, and G. Jedlovec |
| | P3.2 | The effect of differential cloud cover on the propagation of a surface cold front James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt |
| | P3.3 | The experimental seasonal forecast and recent implementation of NCEP RSM Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Wang and J. Han |
| | P3.4 | The distribution of precipitation over the Northeast accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones David P. DeLuca, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee |
| | P3.5 | Development of capability for regional mesoscale ensemble forecasts Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Zelazny and D. Lu |
| | P3.6 | Atmospheric Prognostic and Dispersion Model Design for Use in the European ENSEMBLE Modeling Exercises Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. P. Addis |
| | P3.7 | Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) diabatic initialization of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for the IHOP-2002 field experiment Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, D. Birkenheuer, J. Brown, J. McGinley, P. Schultz, J. Smart, and E. Szoke |
| | P3.8 | Application of Scale-Recursive Estimation to Ensemble Forecasts: A Comparison of Coarse and Fine Resolution Simulations of a Deep Convective Storm Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou |
| | P3.9 | A successful simulation of a strong kona low: What it tells us about the role latent heat Steven Businger, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Cherubini |
| | P3.10 | A simple model study of regime transition predictability: How do we best make use of a bimodal forecast ensemble? Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen |
| | P3.11 | A comparison of an ensemble of positive/negative pairs and a centered spherical simplex ensemble Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Julier |
| | P3.12 | Error Growth and Adaptive Observations Hyun Mee Kim, MRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and Y. H. Youn and H. S. Chung |
| | P3.13 | Identifying state-dependent model error in NWP Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu |
| | P3.14 | On-line Probability Forecasts with DIME Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics & Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. S. Roulston |
| | P3.15 | CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM A GLOBAL NWP MODEL Paul A. Vaillancourt, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Belair, M. Roch, and A. M. Leduc |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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| 4:00 PM | J11.1 | The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith |
| 4:15 PM | J11.2 | Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts? W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen |
| 4:30 PM | J11.3 | On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter |
| 4:45 PM | J11.4 | Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it? ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt |
| 5:00 PM | J11.5 | Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake |
| 5:15 PM | J11.6 | RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Session 17 WRF Model Development & Applications: Part III (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 4:00 PM | 17.1 | WRF simulations of rainfall coherence over the continental United States ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, R. E. Carbone, and S. Frederick |
| 4:15 PM | 17.2 | The diurnal mode of summer rainfall across the conterminous United States in 10-km simulations by the WRF Model ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych and K. W. Manning |
| 4:30 PM | 17.3 | Testing of a new nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion scheme in numerical weather prediction applications ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Song-You Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and J. Dudhia |
| 4:45 PM | 17.4 | Verification Techniques Appropriate for Cloud-Resolving NWP Models ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Christopher Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, R. Bullock, M. Chapman, K. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs |
| 5:00 PM | 17.5 | Simulation of Landfalling Hurricane Isidore over the Gulf of Mexico Region using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Formerly paper number P2.5) R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz and M. Vatti |
| 5:15 PM | 17.6 | Consideration of diffuse radiation in the Noah Land Surface Model ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty, H. I. Chang, D. Chen, F. Chen, T. Holt, A. Qureshi, and V. K. Saxena |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 607 Session 18 Cyclogenesis and Winter Weather (ROOM 607) |
Chair: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
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| 4:00 PM | 18.1 | Revisiting noteworthy U.S. east coast storms and explosive cyclones in the western North Atlantic Ocean from 1979–1993: Simulations using data from the NCEP Regional Reanalysis project ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and D. Jovic, F. Mesinger, P. Shafran, and G. DiMego |
| 4:15 PM | 18.2 | Extratropical Cyclones with Warm Sector Baroclinic Zones and their Relationship to Severe Weather Nicholas D. Metz, Oklahoma Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates and Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz and R. Johns |
| 4:30 PM | 18.3 | Evaluating the effectiveness of the Warning Decision Training Branch's Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK |
| 4:45 PM | 18.4 | Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Daniel P. St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson, L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and B. Smith |
| 5:00 PM | 18.5 | Utilizing Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations to Aid the Prediction of Lake-Effect Snowstorms Neil F. Laird, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich |
| 5:15 PM | 18.6 | Cold-Air Damming: Physical Mechanisms, Synoptic Settings, and Model Representation Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. M. Stanton |
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| 5:30 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day |
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| 6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:30 PM, Wednesday AMS Annual Awards Banquet |
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Thursday, 15 January 2004 |
| 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 14 Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
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| 8:30 AM | J14.1 | The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System: Current status and testing of convective momentum transport in the Emanuel cumulus parameterization ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. F. Peng, J. A. Ridout, Y. J. Kim, J. Teixeira, and R. L. Pauley |
| 8:45 AM | J14.2 | Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2 Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass |
| 9:00 AM | J14.3 | A statistical approach to linear perturbation convective parameterization schemes Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada |
| 9:15 AM | J14.4 | Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao |
| 9:30 AM | J14.5 | Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early |
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| 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 19 Transition from Research to Operations (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: John V. Cortinas, Jr., NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD
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| 8:30 AM | 19.1 | The navy’s on-scene weather prediction system, COAMPS-OSTM Daniel A. Geiszler, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. Kent, J. L. S. Strahl, J. Cook, G. Love, L. Phegley, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, F. Franco, L. Frost, M. Frost, D. Grant, S. Lowder, D. Martinez, and L. N. McDermid |
| 8:45 AM | 19.2 | The VISIT program—transferring research to operations Daniel T. Lindsey, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Bikos, J. Weaver, and A. Mostek |
| 9:00 AM | 19.3 | Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Wohlman, J. T. Bradshaw, G. Jedlovec, S. Goodman, C. Darden, J. Burks, and P. Meyer |
| 9:15 AM | 19.4 | Use of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for Space Shuttle weather forecasts at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWSFO, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and B. Hoeth |
| 9:30 AM | 19.5 | Collaborative Developments in Severe Weather Prediction in Western Australia Bruce William Buckley, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, West Perth, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, L. Qi, and J. LeMarshall |
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| 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB) |
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| 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday, Room 4AB Poster Session 4 Thursday Posters |
| | P4.1 | Wet Microburst—Student Training and Role in On-line Bibliography and Event Selection Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and P. Pyle and S. Blair |
| | P4.2 | Proximity Sounding Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, B. Pettegrew, and R. Thomas |
| | P4.3 | Quality controlled surface visibility observations used to validate predicted surface Aerosol concentration for Southwest Asia Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal and J. S. Reid |
| | P4.4 | The second generation of Eta MOS precipitation guidance—does a finer-resolution predictor dataset have an impact? Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| | P4.5 | Training for the NWS graphical Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Brian C. Motta, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and S. White, S. Beckman, R. Hamilton, P. Manousos, R. Knabb, L. Maximuk, T. Barker, and T. Hansen |
| | P4.6 | Upper Air Constant-Pressure Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, R. Ebert, and C. Melick |
| | P4.7 | Validation Studies of 4DWX Forecasts and Analyses over Northern Utah Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| | P4.8 | Verification of oceanic weather diagnoses and forecasts for aviation weather elements Agnes Takacs, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. Mahoney |
| | P4.9 | Verification of NCEP Workstation Eta model over east and west Africa Vadlamani B. Kumar, RS Information Systems Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. B. Laws, G. A. V. Duncan, and W. M. Thiaw |
| | P4.10 | On The Use of Radar Observations of Reflectivity in Veryfying Model Hydrometeor Fields Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, J. Schmidt, M. Frost, P. Harasti, and B. Gaudet |
| | P4.11 | Wet Microburst—Bibliography, Annotation, Data Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and A. E. Gerard |
| | P4.12 | Opportunities for human forecasters to improve upon model forecasts now and in the future Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua |
| ![](http://www.confex.com/static/images/flag.png) | P4.13 | 2001–2003 Real-time use of cyclone phase diagrams to improve structural forecasting: model-based cyclone phase analysis, forecast, and verification Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans |
| | P4.14 | Assessing the Impact of Collaborative Research Projects on NWS Warning Performance Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY |
| ![](http://www.confex.com/static/images/flag.png) | P4.15 | COAMPS Dust Forecasting for Operation Iraqi Freedom Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, K. A. Richardson, S. D. Miller, and T. R. Holt |
| | P4.16 | Diagnosis of winter time cold bias in the ETA and NMM Models Hui-Ya Chuang, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Wong, and Z. Janjic |
| | P4.17 | NOGAPS Tendencies in Forecasting Central Surface Pressure of Mid-Latitude Cyclones Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA |
| | P4.18 | Evaluation of NCEP operational model forecasts of surface wind and pressure fields over the oceans T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washingon, DC; and V. M. Gerald |
| | P4.19 | Improving the Great Lakes 30-day ice forecast Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC |
| | P4.20 | A comparison of FSU2, NCEPR1, and NCEPR2 winds in the Tropical Pacific Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Romero and M. A. Bourassa |
| | P4.21 | Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, F. Caracena, S. E. Koch, D. L. Bartels, R. M. Hardesty, B. J. McCarty, C. Kiemle, and G. Ehret |
| | P4.22 | Precipitation Forecasts Using the BFM and MM5 Jeffrey E. Passner, U. S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM |
| | P4.23 | Towards an operational Canadian global coupled assimilation and modelling capacity C. Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and D. Bancroft, A. Cameron, and K. Thompson |
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| 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Room 6A Session 20 Forecast Automation (ROOM 6A) |
Organizer: Ronald J. Miller, NOAA/NWSFO, Spokane, WA
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| 11:00 AM | 20.1 | Assessing the utility of an automated 0-1 h thunderstorm product for air traffic managers Dennis M. Rodgers, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Pratt, L. Sherretz, T. Amis, Y. S. Chun, and J. T. Frimel |
| 11:15 AM | 20.2 | Navigating Across Lake Paradigm: One Forecast Office's Experiences in Successfully Transforming Operations to Meet the Demands of the NDFD Joseph DelliCarpini, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and D. R. Vallee |
| 11:30 AM | 20.3 | Operational issues with a national digital forecast database Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and K. Reeves and M. A. Steinberg |
| 11:45 AM | 20.4 | Utah's 100 Inch Snowstorm: Structure, orographic precipitation processes, and implications for the NWS IFPS era W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT |
| 12:00 PM | 20.5 | Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Versus Model Output Statistics Jeffrey A. Baars, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and M. Albright |
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| 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 21 Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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| 11:00 AM | 21.1 | Performance of ensemble forecasts with multiple versions of NCEP's GFS model Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus |
| 11:15 AM | 21.2 | On the need for perturbed LBCs in limited-area ensemble forecasts Paul Nutter, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and D. Stensrud |
| 11:30 AM | 21.3 | The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton |
| 11:45 AM | 21.4 | A non-linear fuzzy set technique for combining precipitation forecasts ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Brian P. Mackey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL |
| 12:00 PM | 21.5 | Ensemble methods for seasonal limited-area forecasts Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. al |
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| 11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Room 607 Session 22 Land Surface Processes (ROOM 607) |
Chair: Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
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| 11:00 AM | 22.1 | 4DVAR Assimilation of Ground Temperature for the Estimation of Soil Moisture and Temperature ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue |
| 11:15 AM | 22.2 | Improvements to surface flux computations in a non-local-mixing PBL scheme, and refinements to urban processes in the NOAH land-surface model with the NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast system ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, J. Bowers, and S. Halvorson |
| 11:30 AM | 22.3 | development of high resolution land data assimilation system and its application to WRF ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. W. Manning, D. N. Yates, M. A. LeMone, S. B. Trier, R. Cuenca, and D. Niyogi |
| 11:45 AM | 22.4 | Impacts of perturbed soil moisture conditions on short range ensemble variability ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Christian J. Sutton, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill |
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| 12:15 PM-1:45 PM, Thursday Lunch Break |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 12 Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A) |
Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON Canada; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
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| 1:30 PM | J12.1 | Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen |
| 1:45 PM | J12.2 | Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro |
| 2:00 PM | J12.3 | The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli |
| 2:15 PM | J12.4 | An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss |
| 2:30 PM | J12.5 | An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs |
| 2:45 PM | J12.6 | Bias normalized precipitation scores Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 23 Ensemble Forecasting: Part II (ROOM 605/606) |
Chair: Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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| 1:30 PM | 23.1 | An Eta model precipitation type mini-ensemble for winter weather forecasting ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill and B. Ferrier |
| 1:45 PM | 23.2 | An investigation of the mesoscale predictability over the Northeast U.S ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones, J. S. Tongue, and J. B. Olson |
| 2:00 PM | 23.3 | CONSTRUCTION OF AN ENSEMBLE OF FORECASTS USING ADJOINT-DERIVED SENSITIVITIES ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist |
| 2:15 PM | 23.4 | Evaluation of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts during the SPC/NSSL 2003 Spring Program ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Jason J. Levit, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, D. R. Bright, and S. J. Weiss |
| 2:30 PM | 23.5 | Flow-Dependent Calibration of Ensemble Spread Using Forecast Spectra Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Baumhefner |
| 2:45 PM | 23.6 | High-Resolution Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts of the March 28, 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storms Nicki L. Levit, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier and F. Kong |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall |
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| 3:00 PM, Thursday Registration Desk Closes |
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| 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 13 Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A) |
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
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| 3:30 PM | J13.1 | MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss |
| 3:45 PM | J13.2 | A global version of MM5: Method and verification Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch |
| 4:00 PM | J13.3 | Verifying mesoscale model precipitation forecasts using an acuity-fidelity approach Stephen F. Marshall, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and T. A. Hutchinson |
| 4:15 PM | J13.4 | Use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to verify IHOP QPF as a function of convective system morphology Jeremy S. Grams, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, L. S. Wharton, S. Koch, E. E. Ebert, and A. Loughe |
| 4:30 PM | J13.5 | Composite-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen and J. Schmidt |
| 4:45 PM | J13.6 | Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and B. Shaw |
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| 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 24 Forecast Uncertainty (ROOM 605/606) |
Organizer: Nicholas A. Bond, JISAO/Univ. of Washington and NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
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| 3:30 PM | 24.1 | Predictive reliability and the scale-bridging capacity of nested models Ana P. Barros, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and K. -. C. Harm and S. Chiao |
| 3:45 PM | 24.2 | Numerical forecast accuracy over the Northeast Pacific: Model intercomparison and cases of major failures Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA |
| 4:00 PM | 24.3 | Forecasting Mesoscale Uncertainty: Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Error Predictability ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass |
| 4:15 PM | 24.4 | Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Schultz and M. Baldwin |
| 4:30 PM | 24.5 | The risks and rewards of high resolution and ensemble numerical weather prediction Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud |
| 4:45 PM | 24.6 | A comparison of MM5, WRF, RUC, and Eta performance for Great Plains Heavy Precipitation Events during the Spring of 2003 ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson and S. F. Marshall |
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| 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 607 Session 25 Model Numerics |
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE
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| 3:30 PM | 25.1 | The use of a cartesian terrain-intersecting grid in a Fourier-based solution of the Helmholtz problem of an implicit nonhydrostatic forecast model R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Thomas |
| 3:45 PM | 25.2 | A fully-implicit semi-Lagrangian nonhydrostatic model employing a pressure-hybrid vertical coordinate Sajal K. Kar, I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Kensington, MD; and R. J. Purser, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and G. J. Dimego |
| 4:00 PM | 25.3 | Application of the Rapid Update Cycle at 10-13 km—Initial testing ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, K. Brundage, S. S. Weygandt, G. A. Grell, J. M. Brown, D. Devenyi, B. M. Schwartz, and T. L. Smith |
| 4:15 PM | 25.4 | Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Da-lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and X. Wang |
| 4:30 PM | 25.5 | Development of Fully Parallelized Regional Spectral Model at NCEP ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang |
| 4:45 PM | 25.6 | Sparse Matrix Techniques for Coupling Independent Hydrological and Meteorological Models ![wrf recording](/static/img/filetypes/16x16/wrf.gif) Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and C. Peters-Lidard |
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| 5:00 PM, Thursday Conference Ends |
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