* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Saturday, 10 January 2004
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday Short Course/Student Conference Registration
Sunday, 11 January 2004
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course Registration
	9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 12 January 2004
	7:30 AM, Monday Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January
	9:00 AM-12:15 PM, Monday, Room 6A Joint Session 1 Data Assimilation and Observational Network Design. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA; Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
9:00 AM Welcoming Remarks   9:15 AM J1.2 THORPEX: a Global Atmospheric Research Programme   Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO 9:45 AM J1.3 Data assimilation with deterministic ensemble filters   Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO; and D. Parrish 10:00 AM J1.4 Developments in ECMWF's 4D-Var system   Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and C. Cardinali, M. Fisher, E. Hólm, L. Isaksen, Y. Trémolet, and A. Hollingsworth 10:15 AM Coffee Break in Poster session room   10:45 AM J1.5 Lagrangian data assimilation and observing system design for ocean coherent structures   Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kuznetsov, H. Salman, and J. Yu 11:00 AM J1.6 An analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations   Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu 11:15 AM J1.7 Observation-quality estimation and its application in NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast (RTFDDA) system   Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, S. Low-Nam, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin 11:30 AM J1.8 The effect of local initialization on Workstation ETA   Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and P. Santos 11:45 AM J1.9 Short-range QPF over Korean Peninsula using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model & “Future Time” data assimilation based on rainfall nowcasting from GMS IR measurements   Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Ou 12:00 PM J1.10 Evaluation of reduced-rank Kalman filters (RRKF)   Michael Fisher, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and A. Hollingsworth
	9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 1 Opening Session (ROOM 605/606)
Cochairs: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
9:00 AM Welcoming Remarks: Ed Bensman and Mary Cairns, Program Co-chairpersons   9:15 AM 1.1 MODIS Winds in NAVDAS   Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley 9:30 AM 1.2 Applying the new Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to National Weather Service forecast office operations   Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Smart, J. McGinley, M. Kay, J. Mahoney, P. Welsh, P. Bogenschutz, P. Ruscher, J. Savadel, and A. Wildman 9:45 AM 1.3 Grid-Based Bias Removal For Mesoscale Model Forecasts   Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed 10:00 AM 1.4 Verification of NDFD Gridded Forecasts in the Western United States   John D. Horel, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Colman and M. Jackson
	10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room
	10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 2 Analysis Techniques (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO
10:45 AM 2.1 Snowin' to Beat The Band: Using Satellite Imagery and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Output to Diagnose the Rapid Development of A Mesoscale Snow Band   David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and E. Vallier-Talbot 11:00 AM 2.2 Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting   Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. L. Haines, R. J. Suggs, T. Bradshaw, C. Darden, and J. E. Burks 11:15 AM 2.3 A Fresh Look at Persistent Ridging in the North Pacfic   John M. Papineau, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK 11:30 AM 2.4 Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting   Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik 11:45 AM 2.5 Assimilation of MODIS temperature and water vapor profiles into a mesoscale analysis system   Bradley T. Zavodsky, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Lazarus, P. F. Blottman, and D. W. Sharp
	10:45 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Room 619/620 Session 3 Verification Studies (ROOM 619/620)
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:45 AM 3.1 On the determination of forecast errors arising from different components of model physics and dynamics   T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Sanjay, A. K. Mitra, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar 10:59 AM 3.2 Paper moved to Session 7, New Paper number 7.5A   11:00 AM 3.2a A Numerical Model Investigation of Intensity Forecast Error for Hurricane Lili (2002) (Formerly paper number 7.5)   Yi Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou 11:15 AM 3.3 Ongoing assessment of GPS-IPW impact on RUC forecasts   Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and S. Sahm 11:30 AM 3.4 The impact of model resolution improvements and statistical forecast techniques on mesoscale prediction during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games   Kenneth A. Hart, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert 11:45 AM 3.5 Validation of MM5 for evolution of cold fronts approaching the Gulf of Mexico   Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and K. Davenport
	10:45 AM-11:45 AM, Monday, Room 607 Session 4 Convection (ROOM 607)
Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
10:45 AM 4.1 Convection in BAMEX during an active subtropical jet period   Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Galarneau, Jr. 4.2 Toward understanding and predicting rapid changes in convective inhibition   John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin, M. S. Bukovsky, and M. E. Baldwin 11:00 AM 4.3 The impact of choice of convective scheme on synoptic features in the NCEP Eta model   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 11:15 AM 4.4 Evaluation of an Improved Convection Triggering Mechanism in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2 Under CAPT Framework   Shaocheng Xie, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. S. Boyle, R. T. Cederwall, G. L. Potter, and M. Zhang 11:30 AM 4.5 Impact of Turbulent Liquid Water Flux on Cloud Microphysics in Mesoscale Models   Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt and J. C. Golaz
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 6A Joint Session 2 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Initiative, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM J2.1 Reanalysis before radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation   Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill 1:45 PM J2.2 Satellite data assimilation over Hawaii   Tiziana Cherubini, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, R. Lyman, and R. Ogasawara 2:00 PM J2.3 The impact of a wind-mass error analysis scheme on forecast skill   Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC/JCSDA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang and J. Guo 2:15 PM J2.4 A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model   Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and G. Gyarmati, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, A. V. Zimin, E. Kalnay, D. Patil, and J. A. Yorke
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 5 Case Studies (ROOM 605/606)
1:30 PM 5.1 The St. Patrick’s Day Snowstorm, 2002, Anchorage, Alaska   Joel C. Curtis, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and J. M. Papineau, C. A. Scott, and K. Johnson 1:45 PM 5.2 Using low-level precipitable hydrometeor mixing ratios from the MM5 to determine precipitation type: Ohio valley cases from the 2002–2003 winter   Chris Smallcomb, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and T. Sturey 1:59 PM Paper 5.3 has been moved to Session 10, New Paper Number 10.3A   2:00 PM 5.3a Mesoscale model simulations in Quasi-forecast mode of the great western storm of 16–20 March 2003 (Formerly Paper Number 10.3)   Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and G. Poulos, J. Snook, E. Szoke, M. P. Meyers, G. Byrd, R. A. Rozumalski, and H. McIntyre 2:15 PM 5.4 Model Dynamic and Microphysical Verification of the 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE 2 Case   Matthew Garvert, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. A. Colle, C. Mass, and C. P. Woods
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, Room 619/620 Session 6 Model Output Statistics (MOS) (ROOM 619/620)
Chair: Ronald Miller, NOAA/NWS, Spokane, WA
1:30 PM 6.1 Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections   J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. C. Erickson and J. C. Maloney 1:45 PM 6.2 Adjusting model output statistics (MOS) surface temperature forecasts using multiple linear regression and Kalman filtering   Andrew A. Taylor, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. B. Richman 2:00 PM 6.3 Producing MOS Snowfall Amount Forecasts from Cooperative Observer Reports   Rebecca L. Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Sfanos 2:15 PM 6.4 Are Model Output Statistics still needed?   Peter P. Neilley, WSI, Corp, Andover, MA; and K. A. Hanson
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Room 4AB Poster Session 1 Monday Posters
P1.1 Simulation of the 27 May 1997 central Texas tornadic storms: Cell development and the role of the preexisting boundary   Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. S. Gilmore and R. B. Wilhelmson   P1.2 Severe weather outbreak over Phoenix, Arizona, on 14 July 2002   G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and E. S. Pytlak   P1.3 Role of Tropical Cyclone in Southern China on the Heavy Rainfall over Korea   Kye-Hwan Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong   P1.4 Preliminary results of a real time, time to space conversion for surface analysis   James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt   P1.5 Orographic effect on heavy rainfall in the east coast of the Korean Peninsula induced by a tropical cyclone   Seon K. Park, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; and E. Lee, D. E. Chang, and L. Leslie   P1.6 Winter storm forecasting as a two-step process: the 26–27 November 2001 snowstorm   Martin A. Baxter, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng, C. E. Graves, and J. T. Moore   P1.7 Numerical modelling of the 31 May 1998 severe bow echo   James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt   P1.8 Large scale regime transition and its relationship to significant cool season precipitation events in the Northeast   Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. Grumm   P1.9 Insights into Columbia Gorge Gap Flow through High Resolution Simulations of Actual and Idealized Events   Justin Sharp, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass   P1.10 Initial and Boundary Conditions for a Limited Area Ensemble Kalman Filter   Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim and C. Snyder   P1.11 Improved tropical cyclone prediction using 4-D variational assimilation of high-resolution satellite and radar data   Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. F. LeMarshall   P1.12 Mesoscale variational assimilation of profiling radiometer data   Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and C. Grassotti and R. Ware   P1.13 Assimilation of ground-based GPS PWV with 3DVAR system for a IHOP case   Y.-R. Guo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Kusaka, D. M. Barker, Y. -. H. Kuo, and A. Crook   P1.14 Support of the Air Force Weather Agency's Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) and Cloud Depiction Forecast System-II (CDFS-II): A Current Status Report   Fritz VanWijngaarden, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, S. Bellevue, NE; and M. Kaufman, A. Ronn, and R. S. Penc   P1.15 Verification of mesoscale modeling for the heavy rainfall event of May 12, 2000 over southern Ontario   Zuohao Cao, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada   P1.16 Using the COAMPSTM adjoint modeling system to forecast a tropical cyclone   Clark M. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou   P1.17 Understanding the Analysis Error Pattern of a 3DVAR System Using Streamfunction and Velocity Potential   Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO P1.18 Tools used in the analysis of tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall   Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD   P1.19 The Steepness Limit to Validity of Approximations to Pressure Gradient Force: any Signs of an Impact?   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD   P1.20 The RUC 3dvar: Operational performance and recent improvements   Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt   P1.21 The planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast Pacific blocking using Potential Vorticity diagnostics   Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland   P1.22 The Influence of Lake Michigan on a Wintertime Cold Front   Joseph G. Dreher, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich   P1.23 The Impact of Assimilating GPS-PW data using WRF-3DVAR on a Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP   Hiroyuki Kusaka, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and Y. R. Guo, A. Crook, D. M. Barker, and H. Hirakuchi   P1.24 Terrain effetcs on the simulation of heavy rainfall occured at the Jiri mountain area of the Korean peninsula   Mee-Hyun Jo, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim   P1.25 The global 3DVAR system of Korea Meteorological Administration   Sang-Won Joo, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and H. C. Shin and W. J. Lee   P1.26 A Modification to the Bratseth Method of Successive Corrections for Complex Terrain   David T. Myrick, University of Utah, NOAA/CIRP, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and S. M. Lazarus   P1.27 An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical cyclones   Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   P1.28 Access to real-time and retrospective Numerical Weather Prediction models at the National Climatic Data Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction   Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert and W. T. Smith   P1.29 A reanalysis of Hurricane Hazel (1954)   Scott R. Weese, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum   P1.30 A multi-scale analysis of the end of the millennium snowstorm   Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and A. C. Wasula and L. F. Bosart   P1.31 A Finite-Volume Mass- and Vorticity-conserving Solver of the Shallow-Water Equations on the Sphere using Penta-/Hexagonal Grids   William Sawyer, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland   P1.32 A different beast: An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the Intermountain region of the Western United States   Jason C. Shafer, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West   P1.33 A composite study of precipitation distribution in U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones   Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari   P1.34 A Comparison of Satellite and Sounding Derived Cloud Top Temperatures   Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Bateman and B. C. Bernstein   P1.35 A 4DVAR Analysis of the Febraury 7–8, 2002 Oregon Cyclone   Brian C. Ancell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass   P1.36 Impact of mesoscale data, cloud analysis on the explicit prediction of an MCS during IHOP 2002   Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue   P1.37 Are there weather holes? An objective analysis   Matthew D. Parker, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. C. Knievel   P1.38 Generation of improved land-surface data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models   David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie, J. Merchant, A. Taylor, C. Godfrey, and R. Bonifaz   P1.39 Flash flooding during a severe drought situation: a case study of the 2002 Ogallala, NE event   Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe, D. B. Radell, and J. R. McCormick   P1.40 Estimation of observation impact using the NAVDAS adjoint system   Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker   P1.41 Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season Numeical QPF be Improved?   William Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. Hoch, B. Shaw, and S. Dembek   P1.42 Data Assimilation using Weather Research and Forecasting Model: An Effort to Improve Fine-Scale Modeling   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz, M. A. Askelsen, and L. Osborne   P1.43 Convective Towers in Eyewalls of Tropical Cyclones Observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar in 1998–2001   Owen A. Kelley, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Stout   P1.44 Cold season 500 hPa cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution and a case study   Anthony R. Fracasso, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. Evans   P1.45 Coherent global intraseasonal oscillation deduced by CSEOF   Baek-Min Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea; and G. H. Lim and K. Y. Kim   P1.46 Case studies of warm season cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution   Jessica S. Najuch, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. Wasula, and K. LaPenta   P1.47 Assimilation of surface cloud, visibility, and current weather observations in the RUC   Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, B. Schwartz, and W. R. Moninger   P1.48 Use of TMI and SSM/I data in JMA Operational Meso-Analysis   Yoshiaki Sato, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Takeuchi and T. Tauchi
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 3AB Joint Session 3 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 3AB)
Chair: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Code 910.3, Greenbelt, MD
4:00 PM J3.1 Hindcasts of the 2002 El Nino Event Made with a Coupled Model Initialized with a Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter   Christian L. Keppenne, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and N. P. Kurkowski 4:15 PM J3.2 Physical initialization for the Regional Spectral Model   Ana M. B. Nunes, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Roads and M. Kanamitsu 4:30 PM J3.3 Experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale data assimilation   C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Skamarock and D. Dowell 4:45 PM J3.4 Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model   Mingjing Tong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 5:00 PM J3.5 Ensemble-based data assimilation at a coastline   Altug Aksoy, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Epifanio, and C. Snyder 5:15 PM J3.6 Amelioration of bias in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter   Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 619/620 Session 7 Verification Studies: Part II (ROOM 619/620)
Chair: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE
4:00 PM 7.1 Forecasters' evaluation of the Integrated Turbulence Forecast Algorithm (ITFA), winter 2003   Matthew Kelsch, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and C. Fischer and J. L. Mahoney 4:15 PM 7.2 Objective evaluation of NCEP/GFS precipitation forecast   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 4:30 PM 7.3 Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States during Winter 2002–2003 by the RSM Ensemble System   Huiling Yuan, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. M. H. Juang 4:45 PM 7.4 Verification of the FSL ensemble of mesoscale models used for a winter weather application   Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO 4:59 PM 7.5 Paper moved to Session 3, new paper number 3.2A   5:00 PM 7.5a Comparing rawinsonde and model soundings to improve aircraft icing forecasts (Formerly Paper number 3.2)   Cory A. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO 5:15 PM 7.6 A validation of the NCEP SREF   Andrew J. Hamm, Northland College, Ashland, WI; and K. L. Elmore
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Room 605/606 Session 8 Case Studies: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
4:00 PM 8.1 A forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within developing extratropical cyclones   David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and J. S. Waldstreicher, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser 4:15 PM 8.2 Analysis of the Texas Norther: Case Study   Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA 4:30 PM 8.3 The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. east coast snowstorm   Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 4:45 PM 8.4 Assessing the impact of meteorological conditions upon tornado evolution during 4 May 2003 tornado outbreak   Michael P. Seaman, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and G. Koch, M. Stoflet, and S. M. Fortin 5:00 PM 8.5 Diagnosis and Prediction of the 3–4 June 2002 Iowa-Illinois Flood   James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. A. Wolf, B. L. Mickelson, J. A. Zogg, and C. E. Graves 5:15 PM 8.6 March 12–13th, "Bora" Windstorm across much of South-Central Alaska   Carven A. Scott, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and S. E. Baines and J. P. Papineau
	5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Monday Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
	5:30 PM, Monday Sessions end for the Day
	7:15 PM, Monday Fred Sanders Banquet
Tuesday, 13 January 2004
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 4 Model Parameterization: Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AM J4.1 Stochastic model parameterizations: Motivation, Implementation, and Impact   Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO 8:45 AM J4.2 Modifications of two convective schemes used in the NCEP Eta Model   Brad S. Ferrier, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 9:00 AM J4.3 Development of new physics parameterization schemes and their impacts on MM5 and WRF prediction of heavy rainfall over Korea during 2001-2002   Tae-Young Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. -. Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and H. -. Y. Chun 9:15 AM J4.4 Grid-size Dependence of Cumulus Parameterization   Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Y. Luo 9:30 AM J4.5 The applicability of a nonlocal turbulence parameterization at cloud resolving scales   Amanda S. Adams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Joint Session 5 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC Chair: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
8:30 AM J5.1 A scheme for the characterization and synthesis of anisotropic background error covariances suitable for adaptive variational assimilation   R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs,, MD 8:45 AM J5.2 Assimilation experiments at NCEP designed to test quality control procedures and effective scale resolutions for QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data   T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and W. H. Gemmill 9:00 AM J5.3 3DVAR retrieval of 3D moisture field from slant-path water vapor observations of high-resolution hypothetical GPS network   Haixia Liu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 9:15 AM J5.4 4D Ensemble Kalman filtering for assimilation of asynchronous observations   T. D. Sauer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. R. Hunt, J. A. Yorke, A. V. Zimin, E. Ott, E. J. Kostelich, I. Szunyogh, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil 9:30 AM J5.5 The Chemical Data Assimilation Algorithm in the MCNC/BAMS Real-Time Ozone Forecast System   Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry, D. Olerud, and R. E. Imhoff
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break.
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday, Room 4AB Poster Session 2 Tuesday Posters
P2.1 Redistribution of angular momentum in a global forecast model due to change in drag parameterizations   Young-Joon Kim, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan   P2.2 The importance of moisture profile with vertical wind shear in the dynamics of mid-latitude squall lines   Tetsuya Takemi, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan   P2.3 The impact of cloud microphysics on the surface solar radiation   Hsin-mu Lin, SAIC, Beltsville and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Ferrier, Y. T. Hou, E. Rogers, K. E. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, and J. Meng   P2.4 Sub-Grid Scale Mountain Blocking at NCEP   Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD   P2.5 Paper Moved to Session 17, New paper Number 17.5A     P2.6 Recent advances in supercell modeling   Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and D. J. Stensrud   P2.7 Prognostic ozone in NOGAPS   Douglas Allen, NRL, Washington, DC; and L. Coy, S. Eckermann, J. McCormack, T. Hogan, and Y. J. Kim   P2.8 The MURI Uncertainty Monitor (MUM)   David W. Jones, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Joslyn   P2.9 The operational implications of forecasting a heavy snow event over the central Rockies in an atypical flow regime   Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Grand Junction, CO; and J. D. Colton, R. L. McAnelly, W. R. Cotton, D. A. Wesley, J. S. Snook, and G. S. Poulos   P2.10 Tornadic Supercell Outbreaks in the Southern Great Plains   Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. Brooks   P2.11 The WRF-single-moment-microphysics scheme and its evaluation of the simulation of mesoscale convective systems   Jeong-Ock Jade Lim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong and J. Dudhia   P2.12 Towards evaluating surface heat flux parameterizations from a large-scale perspective: Arctic Ocean example   Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL   P2.13 Winter forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modelling system in the northeast U.S.—winter 2002–2003   Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish   P2.14 Using PV concepts to diagnose a poorly-predicted heavy snow band in New England (6–7 January 2003)   Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and P. Sisson   P2.15 Operational forecasting of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)   Walt McKeown, Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA   P2.16 Numerically Simulated Interactions Between a Precipitating Synoptic System and Lake-Effect Snowbands over Lake Michigan   Katy L. Fitzpatrick, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. J. Capehart, and D. A. R. Kristovich   P2.17 A standard test set for nonhydrostatic dynamical cores of NWP models   William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Doyle, P. Clark, and N. Wood   P2.18 An experiment in probabilistic quantitative snowfall forecasting   Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and M. P. DeLisi   P2.19 An investigation of IHOP convective system predictability using a matrix of 19 WRF members   Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, B. Shaw, and S. E. Koch   P2.20 Model Applications to the Hawaiian Islands   DaNa L. Carlis, NOAA/Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris   P2.21 Comparison between Regional Spectral Model and high-resolution global circulation model in North American Monsoon simulation   Yucheng Song, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and K. Mo   P2.22 Development of a New Land-Surface Model for JMA-GSM   Masayuki Hirai, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Ohizumi   P2.23 Evaluating surface weather variables predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the western United States   William Y. Y. Cheng, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh   P2.24 Evaluation of the National Marine Verification Program at WFO Key West   Matt C. Parke, NOAA/NWSFO, Key West, FL; and A. Devanas   P2.25 Global variable resolution Euler model development and application   Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Roman and L. A. Byerle   P2.26 Influence of ambient flows and topography on the interannual signal and medium-range predictability over the western U.S. during winter   Lee A. Byerle, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Paegle   P2.27 Intercomparison of global research and operational forecasts   Jennifer C. Roman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle   P2.28 Learning from a null derecho event—the convective forecast for 08 July 2003   Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWSFO, Valley, NE; and R. Adams   P2.29 The influence of highly resolved sea surface temperatures on Meteorological Simulations off the Southeast US Coast   Peter Childs, State Climate Office of North Carolina and North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and R. Boyles
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 6 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles. Part I (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO Chair: Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM J6.1 Toward an effective short-range ensemble forecast system   F. Anthony Eckel, University of Washington and Air Force Weather Agency, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. P. Grimit 11:15 AM J6.2 Multimodel fine-resolution ensembles for short-range forecasts in mountainous terrain   Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and H. Modzelewski, X. Deng, Y. Zhou, L. Huang, T. Cannon, G. Hicks, D. Storey, M. Holmes, and J. Charbonneau 11:30 AM J6.3 Global ensemble forecast at NCEP—configuration, implementation and plan   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and M. Wei 11:45 AM J6.4 Ensemble augmentation with a new dressing kernel   Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop 12:00 PM J6.5 Impacts of Resolution on Gridded Probability Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance   Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. A. Trimarco
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Session 9 Maximizing the Value of Model Output (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: William F. Bunting, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX
11:00 AM 9.1 Applications and Implementation of a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction and Visualization System   Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and A. P. Praino 11:15 AM 9.2 Evaluating Potential Impact of Significant East Coast Winter Storms by Analysis of Upper and Low-level Wind Anomalies   Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and R. Grumm 11:30 AM 9.3 Subjective verification of deterministic models during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program   John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA//OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, M. Dahmer, and J. Levit 11:45 AM 9.4 Using 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output in redeveloping the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP)   Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack and J. M. Flatley 12:00 PM 9.5 Using mesoscale model simulations to better understand the role of surface mixed-layer dynamics in fire-weather interactions   Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and D. Keyser
	12:30 PM-6:30 PM, Tuesday Exhibits Open
	1:30 PM-4:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 6A Joint Session 7 Data assimilation and observational network design: Part V (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizers: Rolf Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM J7.1 The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC)   David S. Richardson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Truscott 1:45 PM J7.2 A Review of THORPEX related Research at NCEP   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD 2:00 PM J7.3 AOSN Monterey Bay Experiment: Observing and Predicting the Coastal Ocean   J. G. Bellingham, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA; and P. E. Chandler, Y. Chao, F. Chavez, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, S. Haddock, N. E. Leonard, M. A. McManus, J. D. Paduan, S. R. Ramp, and A. Robinson 2:15 PM J7.4 Automated Marine Weather Observations on Research Vessels as part of an Ocean Observing System   Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 2:30 PM J7.5 Application of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system to real-time error forecasting, data assimilation and adaptive sampling off the Central California Coast during AOSN-II   Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and W. G. Leslie, C. Evangelinos, P. J. Haley, O. Logoutov, P. Moreno, A. R. Robinson, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, and S. J. Majumdar 2:45 PM J7.6 Demonstration of a methodology for routine observing system design   Shree P. Khare, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 3:00 PM Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall   3:30 PM J7.7 Rocketsonde buoy system observing system simulation experiments   John Spagnol, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and C. Readyhough, M. Stull, J. Mundy, R. Stull, S. Green, and G. Schajer 3:45 PM J7.8 Precision Airdrop System An Emerging Operational Capability   Joseph Dushan, Planning Systems Incorporated, Reston, VA; and R. Wright and D. Velea 4:00 PM J7.9 Estimation of Observation Impact using the NAVDAS Adjoint System   Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. L. Baker 4:15 PM J7.10 Designing Integrated Observing Systems for Weather Prediction: An Integrated Atmospheric Science—Public Policy Approach   Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 607 Session 10 Public Forecast and Warning Issues (ROOM 607)
Chair: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA
1:30 PM 10.1 The Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops   Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Mahoney, A. C. Wood, J. G. LaDue, and X. Yu 1:45 PM 10.2 High Impact Sub-Advisory Snow Events: The Need to Effectively Communicate the Threat of Short Duration High Intensity Snowfall   Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA 1:59 PM Paper 10.3 has been moved to Session 5, New Paper Number 5.3A   2:00 PM 10.3a Performance of various operational and experimental numerical forecasts for the March 2003 Colorado snowstorm (Formerly Paper Number 5.3)   Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, P. Schultz, and D. Barjenbruch 2:15 PM 10.4 Initial Evaluation Results of the Eta, NMM, GFS, SREF, and RUC Models During the 2003 New England High Resolution Temperature Forecast Program   James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Zamora, J. W. Bao, I. V. Djalalova, J. T. McQueen, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, H. L. Pan, K. Mitchell, G. DiMego, J. Du, B. Zhou, and S. Benjamin 2:30 PM 10.5 Highlights from the Joint Polarization Experiment operational demonstration   Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and P. L. Heinselman, D. J. Miller, D. L. Andra, and M. P. Foster 2:45 PM 10.6 Issues in verification of public forecasts   Kenneth Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and E. Abrams and M. A. Steinberg
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Session 11 WRF Model Overview and Agency Programs (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PM 11.1 Overview of the WRF Effort: Partnership, Process and Goals   John L. Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 1:45 PM 11.2 Next-Generation Mesoscale Modeling: A Technical Overview Of WRF   Joseph B. Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO 2:00 PM 11.3 The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)   Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Seaman 2:15 PM 11.4 ON THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE AIR FORCE WEATHER WEAPON SYSTEM'S NEXT GENERATION MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL: THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL (WRF)   Mark T. Surmeier, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. W. Wegiel 2:30 PM 11.5 The Navy role in WRF   Richard M. Hodur, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle 2:45 PM 11.6 Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)   Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
	3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Tuesday, Room 605/606 Session 12 WRF Model Development and Applications (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 12.1 Real-time applications of the WRF model at the Forecast Systems Laboratory   Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. A. McGinley, J. M. Brown, P. Schultz, E. J. Szoke, T. G. Smirnova, B. L. Shaw, D. Birkenheuer, S. Albers, S. E. Peckham, and G. A. Grell 3:45 PM 12.2 Results of WRF development activities at NCEP   Geoff DiMego, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, H. Chuang, J. Derber, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, D. Keyser, M. Pyle, and W. Wu 4:00 PM 12.3 Implementing the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with local data assimilation in a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO)   Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and A. Wildman, B. Shaw, J. Smart, P. Ruscher, J. McGinley, B. N. Meisner, and P. Bogenschutz 4:15 PM 12.4 Real-time explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model during the BAMEX field program   Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Done, W. Wang, and J. Bresch 4:30 PM 12.5 Evaluation of Topographic Flow Simulations from COAMPS and WRF   James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA 4:45 PM 12.6 Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model   Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRES/ Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, R. Schmitz, and S. A. McKeen 5:00 PM 12.7 The NCEP WRF core   Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 5:15 PM 12.8 Evaluating dissipation in NWP models using kinetic energy spectra   William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin and W. Wang 5:30 PM 12.9 The development of the WRF for Hurricanes (HWRF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Formerly Paper number 14.2)   Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, R. Tuleya, W. Shen, and M. Bender
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, Room 607 Session 13 Tropical and Extratropical Transition Studies (ROOM 607)
Chair: Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
3:30 PM 13.1 Role of the Gulf Stream on extratropical cyclogenesis   Neil A. Jacobs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, G. M. Lackmann, and P. P. Childs 3:45 PM 13.2 Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of north Atlantic tropical cyclones as defined by a cyclone phase space   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans 4:00 PM 13.3 Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis   Justin M. Arnott, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans 4:15 PM 13.4 Method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using TRMM PR/TMI data   Shunsuke Hoshino, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa 4:30 PM 13.5 The importance of the precipitation mass sink in tropical cyclones   Richard M. Yablonsky, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 4:45 PM 13.6 Relationship between climatology and model track, bearing, and speed errors   Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and C. S. Liou 5:00 PM 13.7 Impact of the Boundary Layer Processes on Simulated Tropical Rainfall   Young-Hwa Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and S. Y. Hong 5:15 PM 13.8 Use of Doppler radar data to improve hurricane intensity forecasts   Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. -. C. Lee, and W. Wang
	5:30 PM, Tuesday Sessions end for the day
	7:00 PM, Tuesday, Room 607 Panel Discussion 1 The Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process—An Interactive Forum
Wednesday, 14 January 2004
	8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 8 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING/ENSEMBLES: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM J8.1 On the predictability of flows with many scales   Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO 8:45 AM J8.2 Initial Condition Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Forecast Using Very Large Ensembles   William J. Martin, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and M. Xue 9:00 AM J8.3 Singular vectors with an analysis error variance metric   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro and T. Rosmond 9:15 AM J8.4 Analysis errors decomposed into singular vectors   C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Hakim
	8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Session 14 WRF Model Development and Applications: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: John E. Gaynor, NOAA/OAR/WA/USWRP, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM 14.1 NCEP's nonhydrostatic mesoscale model: Forecast guidance and transition to WRF   Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Michalakes 8:44 AM 14.2 Paper Moved to Session 12, New Paper Number 12.9   8:45 AM 14.2a Implementation and verification of the unified Noah land surface model in the WRF model (Formerly Paper Number 17.5)   Mukul Tewari, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, W. Wang, J. Dudhia, M. A. LeMone, K. Mitchell, M. Ek, G. Gayno, J. Wegiel, and R. H. Cuenca 9:00 AM 14.3 A globally relocatable Numerical Weather Prediction system based on WRF and ADAS   Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett, K. A. Brewster, D. Weber, Y. Wang, J. A. Brotzge, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and D. Jahn 9:15 AM 14.4 A Graphical User Interface to Prepare the Standard Initialization for WRF   Paula T. McCaslin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart, B. Shaw, and B. D. Jamison
	8:30 AM, Wednesday, Room 607 Session 15 Forecasters Forum (ROOM 607)
Organizer: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA Chair: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA
	9:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:00 AM, Wednesday Session Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	12:30 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibit Hours
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Joint Session 9 Data Assimilation and observational network design: Part VI (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Timothy Hogan, Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC
1:30 PM J9.1 Impact of SeaWinds scatterometer data on numerical weather prediction   Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 1:45 PM J9.2 Improved Super-Ob Radar Radial Wind Precision for the NCEP Data Assimilation and Forecast System   Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. V. Kumar and Y. Song 2:00 PM J9.3 Assimilating Radar Data For Real-time Short-term Snowband Forecasting   Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, Y. Liu, and R. Rasmussen 2:15 PM J9.4 Errors of the day, bred vectors and singular vectors: implications for ensemble forecasting and data assimilation   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and E. Kalnay
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 607 Session 16 Climatologies (ROOM 607)
Chair: Suzanne Van Cooten, NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS
1:30 PM 16.1 A climatology of large-scale North Pacific cyclones and their predictability   Linda M. Keller, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 1:45 PM 16.2 A climatological study of 100 mm or greater days in northern California   Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart 2:00 PM 16.3 Global climatology of closed 1000–500 hPa thickness highs and lows   Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, A. R. Aiyyer, and E. H. Atallah 2:15 PM 16.4 Cool season tornadoes in the southeast United States: A climatological and case study perspective   Alicia C. Wasula, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, R. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, and R. H. Johns
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 10 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part III (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Organizer: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM J10.1 Model Errors in Ensemble Forecasts: the Structure of Errors from Unrepresented Scales   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker 1:45 PM J10.2 Computing the odds on a good probability forecast   Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom 2:00 PM J10.3 The Role of Human Forecasters During the 21st Century   Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2:15 PM J10.4 Ensemble forecasting and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay during the AOSN-II Experiment   Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop, Y. Chao, Z. Li, J. K. Choi, and P. F. J. Lermusiaux 2:30 PM J10.5 Ensemble initial perturbations: Hessian and moist singular vectors   Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Room 4AB Poster Session 3 Wednesday Posters
P3.1 GOES Data Assimilation in MM5: Application for Texas Air Quality Study 2000   Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. McNider, K. Doty, S. L. Haines, W. Lapenta, R. J. Suggs, and G. Jedlovec   P3.2 The effect of differential cloud cover on the propagation of a surface cold front   James Correia Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt   P3.3 The experimental seasonal forecast and recent implementation of NCEP RSM   Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Wang and J. Han   P3.4 The distribution of precipitation over the Northeast accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones   David P. DeLuca, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee   P3.5 Development of capability for regional mesoscale ensemble forecasts   Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Zelazny and D. Lu   P3.6 Atmospheric Prognostic and Dispersion Model Design for Use in the European ENSEMBLE Modeling Exercises   Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. P. Addis   P3.7 Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) diabatic initialization of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for the IHOP-2002 field experiment   Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, D. Birkenheuer, J. Brown, J. McGinley, P. Schultz, J. Smart, and E. Szoke   P3.8 Application of Scale-Recursive Estimation to Ensemble Forecasts: A Comparison of Coarse and Fine Resolution Simulations of a Deep Convective Storm   Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou   P3.9 A successful simulation of a strong kona low: What it tells us about the role latent heat   Steven Businger, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Cherubini   P3.10 A simple model study of regime transition predictability: How do we best make use of a bimodal forecast ensemble?   Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen   P3.11 A comparison of an ensemble of positive/negative pairs and a centered spherical simplex ensemble   Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Julier   P3.12 Error Growth and Adaptive Observations   Hyun Mee Kim, MRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; and Y. H. Youn and H. S. Chung   P3.13 Identifying state-dependent model error in NWP   Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Hansen, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu   P3.14 On-line Probability Forecasts with DIME   Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics & Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. S. Roulston   P3.15 CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM A GLOBAL NWP MODEL   Paul A. Vaillancourt, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Belair, M. Roch, and A. M. Leduc
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 6A Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
4:00 PM J11.1 The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting   Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith 4:15 PM J11.2 Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?   W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen 4:30 PM J11.3 On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting   David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter 4:45 PM J11.4 Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?   Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt 5:00 PM J11.5 Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)   Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake 5:15 PM J11.6 RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System   Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 605/606 Session 17 WRF Model Development & Applications: Part III (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Robert L. Gall, NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:00 PM 17.1 WRF simulations of rainfall coherence over the continental United States   S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, R. E. Carbone, and S. Frederick 4:15 PM 17.2 The diurnal mode of summer rainfall across the conterminous United States in 10-km simulations by the WRF Model   Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych and K. W. Manning 4:30 PM 17.3 Testing of a new nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion scheme in numerical weather prediction applications   Song-You Hong, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and J. Dudhia 4:45 PM 17.4 Verification Techniques Appropriate for Cloud-Resolving NWP Models   Christopher Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, R. Bullock, M. Chapman, K. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs 5:00 PM 17.5 Simulation of Landfalling Hurricane Isidore over the Gulf of Mexico Region using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Formerly paper number P2.5)   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Schwartz and M. Vatti 5:15 PM 17.6 Consideration of diffuse radiation in the Noah Land Surface Model   Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty, H. I. Chang, D. Chen, F. Chen, T. Holt, A. Qureshi, and V. K. Saxena
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Room 607 Session 18 Cyclogenesis and Winter Weather (ROOM 607)
Chair: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
4:00 PM 18.1 Revisiting noteworthy U.S. east coast storms and explosive cyclones in the western North Atlantic Ocean from 1979–1993: Simulations using data from the NCEP Regional Reanalysis project   Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and D. Jovic, F. Mesinger, P. Shafran, and G. DiMego 4:15 PM 18.2 Extratropical Cyclones with Warm Sector Baroclinic Zones and their Relationship to Severe Weather   Nicholas D. Metz, Oklahoma Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates and Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz and R. Johns 4:30 PM 18.3 Evaluating the effectiveness of the Warning Decision Training Branch's Winter Weather Warning Decision Making Workshops   Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK 4:45 PM 18.4 Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases   Daniel P. St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson, L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and B. Smith 5:00 PM 18.5 Utilizing Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations to Aid the Prediction of Lake-Effect Snowstorms   Neil F. Laird, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich 5:15 PM 18.6 Cold-Air Damming: Physical Mechanisms, Synoptic Settings, and Model Representation   Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. M. Stanton
	5:30 PM, Wednesday Sessions end for the day
	6:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	7:30 PM, Wednesday AMS Annual Awards Banquet
Thursday, 15 January 2004
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 14 Model Parameterization: Part II (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Craig H. Bishop, UCAR and NRL, Monterey, CA
8:30 AM J14.1 The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System: Current status and testing of convective momentum transport in the Emanuel cumulus parameterization   Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. F. Peng, J. A. Ridout, Y. J. Kim, J. Teixeira, and R. L. Pauley 8:45 AM J14.2 Evaluation of the bulk microphysical pathways and sensitivity studies for 13–14 December 2001 of IMPROVE2   Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Garvert, J. B. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass 9:00 AM J14.3 A statistical approach to linear perturbation convective parameterization schemes   Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada 9:15 AM J14.4 Modeling Entrainment and Boundary Layer Growth during a Bore Event using Different Turbulence Parameterizations and LES   Mariusz Pagowski, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Koch and J. W. Bao 9:30 AM J14.5 Mesoscale Modeling Effects on Optical Turbulence Parameterization Performance   Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and D. A. DeBenedictis, R. J. Lefevre, and S. A. Early
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 19 Transition from Research to Operations (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: John V. Cortinas, Jr., NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD
8:30 AM 19.1 The navy’s on-scene weather prediction system, COAMPS-OSTM   Daniel A. Geiszler, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. Kent, J. L. S. Strahl, J. Cook, G. Love, L. Phegley, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, F. Franco, L. Frost, M. Frost, D. Grant, S. Lowder, D. Martinez, and L. N. McDermid 8:45 AM 19.2 The VISIT program—transferring research to operations   Daniel T. Lindsey, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Bikos, J. Weaver, and A. Mostek 9:00 AM 19.3 Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment   William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Wohlman, J. T. Bradshaw, G. Jedlovec, S. Goodman, C. Darden, J. Burks, and P. Meyer 9:15 AM 19.4 Use of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for Space Shuttle weather forecasts at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group   Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWSFO, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and B. Hoeth 9:30 AM 19.5 Collaborative Developments in Severe Weather Prediction in Western Australia   Bruce William Buckley, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, West Perth, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, L. Qi, and J. LeMarshall
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Hall 4AB)
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday, Room 4AB Poster Session 4 Thursday Posters
P4.1 Wet Microburst—Student Training and Role in On-line Bibliography and Event Selection   Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and P. Pyle and S. Blair   P4.2 Proximity Sounding Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events   Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, B. Pettegrew, and R. Thomas   P4.3 Quality controlled surface visibility observations used to validate predicted surface Aerosol concentration for Southwest Asia   Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal and J. S. Reid   P4.4 The second generation of Eta MOS precipitation guidance—does a finer-resolution predictor dataset have an impact?   Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD   P4.5 Training for the NWS graphical Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)   Brian C. Motta, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and S. White, S. Beckman, R. Hamilton, P. Manousos, R. Knabb, L. Maximuk, T. Barker, and T. Hansen   P4.6 Upper Air Constant-Pressure Composites of Midwestern Thundersnow Events   Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. M. Oravetz, D. Gaede, E. Bookbinder, R. Ebert, and C. Melick   P4.7 Validation Studies of 4DWX Forecasts and Analyses over Northern Utah   Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT   P4.8 Verification of oceanic weather diagnoses and forecasts for aviation weather elements   Agnes Takacs, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. Mahoney   P4.9 Verification of NCEP Workstation Eta model over east and west Africa   Vadlamani B. Kumar, RS Information Systems Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. B. Laws, G. A. V. Duncan, and W. M. Thiaw   P4.10 On The Use of Radar Observations of Reflectivity in Veryfying Model Hydrometeor Fields   Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, J. Schmidt, M. Frost, P. Harasti, and B. Gaudet   P4.11 Wet Microburst—Bibliography, Annotation, Data   Paul J. Croft, University of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and A. E. Gerard   P4.12 Opportunities for human forecasters to improve upon model forecasts now and in the future   Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua P4.13 2001–2003 Real-time use of cyclone phase diagrams to improve structural forecasting: model-based cyclone phase analysis, forecast, and verification   Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans   P4.14 Assessing the Impact of Collaborative Research Projects on NWS Warning Performance   Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY P4.15 COAMPS Dust Forecasting for Operation Iraqi Freedom   Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, K. A. Richardson, S. D. Miller, and T. R. Holt   P4.16 Diagnosis of winter time cold bias in the ETA and NMM Models   Hui-Ya Chuang, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Wong, and Z. Janjic   P4.17 NOGAPS Tendencies in Forecasting Central Surface Pressure of Mid-Latitude Cyclones   Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA   P4.18 Evaluation of NCEP operational model forecasts of surface wind and pressure fields over the oceans   T.-W. Yu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washingon, DC; and V. M. Gerald   P4.19 Improving the Great Lakes 30-day ice forecast   Sheldon Drobot, The National Academies, Washington, DC   P4.20 A comparison of FSU2, NCEPR1, and NCEPR2 winds in the Tropical Pacific   Shawn R. Smith, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Romero and M. A. Bourassa   P4.21 Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP   Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, F. Caracena, S. E. Koch, D. L. Bartels, R. M. Hardesty, B. J. McCarty, C. Kiemle, and G. Ehret   P4.22 Precipitation Forecasts Using the BFM and MM5   Jeffrey E. Passner, U. S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM   P4.23 Towards an operational Canadian global coupled assimilation and modelling capacity   C. Harold Ritchie, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and D. Bancroft, A. Cameron, and K. Thompson
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Room 6A Session 20 Forecast Automation (ROOM 6A)
Organizer: Ronald J. Miller, NOAA/NWSFO, Spokane, WA
11:00 AM 20.1 Assessing the utility of an automated 0-1 h thunderstorm product for air traffic managers   Dennis M. Rodgers, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Pratt, L. Sherretz, T. Amis, Y. S. Chun, and J. T. Frimel 11:15 AM 20.2 Navigating Across Lake Paradigm: One Forecast Office's Experiences in Successfully Transforming Operations to Meet the Demands of the NDFD   Joseph DelliCarpini, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and D. R. Vallee 11:30 AM 20.3 Operational issues with a national digital forecast database   Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and K. Reeves and M. A. Steinberg 11:45 AM 20.4 Utah's 100 Inch Snowstorm: Structure, orographic precipitation processes, and implications for the NWS IFPS era   W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/CIRP and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 12:00 PM 20.5 Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Versus Model Output Statistics   Jeffrey A. Baars, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and M. Albright
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 21 Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
11:00 AM 21.1 Performance of ensemble forecasts with multiple versions of NCEP's GFS model   Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus 11:15 AM 21.2 On the need for perturbed LBCs in limited-area ensemble forecasts   Paul Nutter, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and D. Stensrud 11:30 AM 21.3 The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton 11:45 AM 21.4 A non-linear fuzzy set technique for combining precipitation forecasts   Brian P. Mackey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 12:00 PM 21.5 Ensemble methods for seasonal limited-area forecasts   Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. al
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Room 607 Session 22 Land Surface Processes (ROOM 607)
Chair: Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM 22.1 4DVAR Assimilation of Ground Temperature for the Estimation of Soil Moisture and Temperature   Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue 11:15 AM 22.2 Improvements to surface flux computations in a non-local-mixing PBL scheme, and refinements to urban processes in the NOAH land-surface model with the NCAR/ATEC real-time FDDA and forecast system   Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, J. Bowers, and S. Halvorson 11:30 AM 22.3 development of high resolution land data assimilation system and its application to WRF   Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. W. Manning, D. N. Yates, M. A. LeMone, S. B. Trier, R. Cuenca, and D. Niyogi 11:45 AM 22.4 Impacts of perturbed soil moisture conditions on short range ensemble variability   Christian J. Sutton, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill
	12:15 PM-1:45 PM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 12 Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON Canada; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PM J12.1 Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida   P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen 1:45 PM J12.2 Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective   J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro 2:00 PM J12.3 The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system   Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli 2:15 PM J12.4 An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology   Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss 2:30 PM J12.5 An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples   Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs 2:45 PM J12.6 Bias normalized precipitation scores   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 23 Ensemble Forecasting: Part II (ROOM 605/606)
Chair: Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
1:30 PM 23.1 An Eta model precipitation type mini-ensemble for winter weather forecasting   Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill and B. Ferrier 1:45 PM 23.2 An investigation of the mesoscale predictability over the Northeast U.S   Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Jones, J. S. Tongue, and J. B. Olson 2:00 PM 23.3 CONSTRUCTION OF AN ENSEMBLE OF FORECASTS USING ADJOINT-DERIVED SENSITIVITIES   Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist 2:15 PM 23.4 Evaluation of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts during the SPC/NSSL 2003 Spring Program   Jason J. Levit, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, D. R. Bright, and S. J. Weiss 2:30 PM 23.5 Flow-Dependent Calibration of Ensemble Spread Using Forecast Spectra   Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Baumhefner 2:45 PM 23.6 High-Resolution Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts of the March 28, 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storms   Nicki L. Levit, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier and F. Kong
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	3:00 PM, Thursday Registration Desk Closes
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 6A Joint Session 13 Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A)
Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
3:30 PM J13.1 MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool   Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss 3:45 PM J13.2 A global version of MM5: Method and verification   Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch 4:00 PM J13.3 Verifying mesoscale model precipitation forecasts using an acuity-fidelity approach   Stephen F. Marshall, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and T. A. Hutchinson 4:15 PM J13.4 Use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to verify IHOP QPF as a function of convective system morphology   Jeremy S. Grams, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, L. S. Wharton, S. Koch, E. E. Ebert, and A. Loughe 4:30 PM J13.5 Composite-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model   Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen and J. Schmidt 4:45 PM J13.6 Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP   Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and B. Shaw
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 605/606 Session 24 Forecast Uncertainty (ROOM 605/606)
Organizer: Nicholas A. Bond, JISAO/Univ. of Washington and NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
3:30 PM 24.1 Predictive reliability and the scale-bridging capacity of nested models   Ana P. Barros, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and K. -. C. Harm and S. Chiao 3:45 PM 24.2 Numerical forecast accuracy over the Northeast Pacific: Model intercomparison and cases of major failures   Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 4:00 PM 24.3 Forecasting Mesoscale Uncertainty: Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Error Predictability   Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass 4:15 PM 24.4 Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model   Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Schultz and M. Baldwin 4:30 PM 24.5 The risks and rewards of high resolution and ensemble numerical weather prediction   Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud 4:45 PM 24.6 A comparison of MM5, WRF, RUC, and Eta performance for Great Plains Heavy Precipitation Events during the Spring of 2003   Peter J. Sousounis, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and T. A. Hutchinson and S. F. Marshall
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, Room 607 Session 25 Model Numerics
Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Papillion, NE
3:30 PM 25.1 The use of a cartesian terrain-intersecting grid in a Fourier-based solution of the Helmholtz problem of an implicit nonhydrostatic forecast model   R. James Purser, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Thomas 3:45 PM 25.2 A fully-implicit semi-Lagrangian nonhydrostatic model employing a pressure-hybrid vertical coordinate   Sajal K. Kar, I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Kensington, MD; and R. J. Purser, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and G. J. Dimego 4:00 PM 25.3 Application of the Rapid Update Cycle at 10-13 km—Initial testing   Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, K. Brundage, S. S. Weygandt, G. A. Grell, J. M. Brown, D. Devenyi, B. M. Schwartz, and T. L. Smith 4:15 PM 25.4 Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution   Da-lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and X. Wang 4:30 PM 25.5 Development of Fully Parallelized Regional Spectral Model at NCEP   Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang 4:45 PM 25.6 Sparse Matrix Techniques for Coupling Independent Hydrological and Meteorological Models   Carlie J. Coats, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Research Triangle Park, NC; and C. Peters-Lidard
	5:00 PM, Thursday Conference Ends

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